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Science / PETM dinoflagellates suffered plenty (Purdue university))
« on: March 15, 2017, 07:01:16 AM »
Marked decrease of dinoflagellate abundance during PETM observed. As oceans were this warm, it would mean vast areas of tropical continents were too hot for multicellular life at this time. I guess this would mean even the rains were too hot for plants. Sorry no link for the actual paper (partly based on models) but here's the press release and abstract about this. Note that the press release does not estimate the deviation from the preindustrial T.

Posting this here too, probably this is already referred to somewhere else on the site too. A state of the art public and general lecture on state of climate change study and on metastable icy regions of the planet. Dr. Jim White speaks.

Are we turning to the tailwind or are we on the last turn before that on this climatic journey on spaceship earth?

It appears that some people are for lesser use of foul language on the forum, thus this thread that may contain excessive foul language. (don't scroll down if your easily offended, see, I started with a minor typo) What the truth on this, we may never know if such words like 'climate', 'change', 'global' and 'warming', that some may consider swearwords, are deleted from everyday use on GOVERNMENT websites (sorry, got carried away (shouting)):
(really, don't scroll down)

FUCK. You HAD to scroll down so you could be offended, no? You fucking dimwit moron, get the hell outta here before I start!! There's no USE in putting WARNINGS up even beside the so called 'BUTTON' if people like you are interested to see "WHAT  happens if I turn these keys with "my friend"" (that is a "useful idiot" by YOUR calling). Abusive charlatan, that's what you are. If any your shenanigans and regular hypocritical 'white lies' would be found out by ANY god, you'd have losed your imaginary reward. Corpse of a person. AND to those who think 'O, there's NO GOD NOR I CAN'T SAY IF THERE IS one', do you THINK these other people are HALLUCINATING. TRY telling it to them. The dastardly thing about religion is that it allows people to react FASTER by eliminating other explanations. By the time you have pulled your gun out trying to figure out if their enemy they're already dealing out shovels and drugs to posthumously indoctrinate you to their religion in your grave since all men should be with god. Satan, Devil and Hell may still take you, but at least they gave you a chance! Asshole.

(I'll probably fall myself to this text once or twice )

Science / 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: January 07, 2017, 07:46:46 AM »
2017 has started, so a new thread for Mauna Loa measurements of airborne CO2. I'm beginning this with the weekly graph over the New Year. Funnily the graph shows a slight spike on 1st January to beginning of  2nd of January, as if New Years festivities could have influenced on the values measured at Mauna Loa. I can't say if this is a recurrent phenomenon on New Year, so not attributing this to human activity. Anyway, the the possible CO2 from human activity (say. from Oahu?) would have to have flowed 12 hours to the measuring location, not sure if the winds were that light on Hawaii this New Year.:

The international research-group acquired a high-temporal-resolution dataset of iceberg-rafted debris (IBRD) that correlates to the Ice Sheet flow speed from Ross Sea. Significant variability of ice discharge was observed over time. As the global datasets of climate variability during Holocene are more varied than in the climate simulations, the group proposes the varied discharge of ice by the Antarctic ice sheets as the reason for the larger variability in reality than in the models. This was tested by climate models incorporating the observed significant variability. Mechanism for variability is proposed.

More behind the paywall, I guess.
Pepijn Bakker,   Peter U. Clark,   Nicholas R. Golledge,   Andreas Schmittner   & Michael E. Weber

The rest / What's going on @RealClimate?
« on: November 21, 2015, 05:26:24 AM »
It appears the site is down. The note on top says the domain name has expired.

Science / Where has all the carbon gone (in Ocean Floor)?
« on: September 29, 2015, 05:38:18 AM »
I interpreted the abstract pretty freely : This is a highly technical study connecting high-temperature biochemistry, chemistry, engineering and geology, it tries to explain the creation of natural carbon pool under the Ocean floor by the action of hydrothermal vents converting biological stuff to hard to digest materials. crude oil and such (takes 40My, maximally, state the scientists)

paywall is here:

And I guess I'll have to change this story then  :P

Antarctica / Southern Ocean Circulation during glacials modeled
« on: September 29, 2015, 05:09:27 AM »
University of Exeter scientists have included the effect of water buoyancy differences of the Ocean water in their model, thus getting their model to behave more like the measurements state. Not surprising at all, the expansion of cold ocean areas around Antarctica let more CO2 to get in there thus a large portion of the glacial-interglacial variations on CO2 levels and temperatures maybe included in some paleoclimate models better than previously.

"During an ice age, the glacial conditions on Antarctica mean that the water near to the continent is colder and so less buoyant. The upwelling of warmer water - during which CO2 is lost to the atmosphere - occurs further away from Antarctica enabling carbon dioxide to be drawn down into the ocean, and also producing a larger volume of deep cold water in the Southern Ocean in which carbon can be stored."

The article is likely behind the pay-wall, thus PhysOrg refers:
Read more at:

PAGES2K study on proxies of the temperatures on various continents came up on another site (In response to the 'mini ice age'-story). I downloaded the associated couple of files to get the values.
In the study, 30-year averages were displayed on a nifty chart, I assume this was for statistical significance. Here on ASI forum we can be less stringent on various scientific issues, so here's
the 11-year averages (to get much of the short term solar variation out) on the annual values of Pages2K on various continents. A whole bunch of variation can be seen:

Science / Milankovitch cycles
« on: March 21, 2015, 05:19:15 AM »
Digging into some several southern hemisphere glacial deposits, these scholars are among the troupe trying to reorganize the magnitudes and potential reasons of onsets and offsets of ice ages and at the same time question the famed Milankovitch cycles theory (a hypothesis, that was great when it was first done, but do the numbers add up, questions are rising) :

As is again full of links pointing to the original article  >:( ,
 I had to find it by using google, and get hit by the paywall.

for me, preferred story is still orbital, namely eccentricity, but so the happenstances in the SH matter more. Is this again a question of fallibility of human perception, 'if something as large as ice age happens, the reason and the evidence must be near humans'?? Anyway. One more to the pile of articles questioning quite hard the traditional explanation, we might be witnessing a coup in the glaciology department, to put it lively.

The rest / Solar cycle generator?
« on: February 17, 2015, 04:21:26 AM »
I'll put this in here since I'm very much not too sure it should go anywhere else (checking these sorts of mathematical constructs is above my skills) :

ah, this apparently is supposed to be an extraction of DeVries cycle that is really difficult to separate from volcanic effects. And how would the cosmogenic isotopes effect the amount of ghg's? are they really sure it's not solely from volcanic effects?

where to get the stalagmite data from which this is supposedly derived? is it behind a paywall?

The rest / Atlantis projection
« on: February 17, 2015, 03:53:10 AM »
this map projection went straight to top 10 in my scale :-) . Setting the Atlantis projection nicely gives you either the two hemispheres (for air movements) or almost continuous ocean.

two images from nullschool 250mB winds and SST anomaly for today, aren't the projections great!?`

(What's with North America, you seem to gather all the ocean warm anomaly??)

Well the headline pretty much says it all:
I might add that so much depends on the possible speed of deep ocean heat storage, that this could be a reasonable analysis until ice free summers are common place in the arctic making the top of AO warmer than subsurface waters. But, given that the deep ocean gets warmer, so do the El Ninos and likely La Ninas too. The recent broadly spread study by Wenju Cai & al. see f.e.
quite correctly refers to studies saying El Ninos would become even more frequent than La Ninas. I guess the projection they made had strongly enhanced deepwater mixing which would indeed do that. I haven't read their paper, butI think  this type of study could indeed produce the 20th century-type hiatuses included in the statistical analysis by 14terstock. Whether it's correct or not, I have no opinion yet, like 14terstock.

Consequences / AbruptSLR by P.Sinclair
« on: January 26, 2015, 03:14:57 PM »
P.Sinclair summarizes recent studies on glaciers worldwide so posting this here:

this starts to sound like a scenario I'd believe in, whether this starts in 2025 or 2090 is still a bit open question but I'll believe it's coming, is irriversible when it starts and thus guessing the engineer children of todays engineer/builder children should have a profitable and recurring career in building harbours for what ever stuff still gets shipped around the world by then. Glad that gardening here in the north will become easier with less need for frost protection, though slightly scared of some of the southern pests that'll likely be a menace on the corn fields of Finland by then...

The rest / the 1000th topic thread
« on: January 19, 2015, 04:12:02 PM »
 ;D , just so that potential number mystics are observing this site for premonitions and oracles.
A fact totally disconnected from the topic of the site: Asteroid number 1000 Piazzia was named in honor of the catholic priest who discovered Asteroid 1 Ceres.

And congratulations Neven!

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Greenland mentioned at DailyKos
« on: January 14, 2015, 10:18:33 AM »
The Democrat blogging site has a note reporting some recent studies by NASA on Greenland drainage system, which has a fair warning to check it out before it's gone:
in case the study disappears from the net I took a copy of it to my hard drive, granted it's not the most safe place to store info but anyway. Here's the paper, don't know if it's been altered somehow already, at least it doesn't have any sections blacked out:

And it looks like Lennart van der Linde has covered this already, this could make a case of comparing the copies of the paper:
New paper by Smith et a 2015 on Greenland drainage:

Science / CO2 spikes during deglaciation
« on: January 06, 2015, 10:51:24 AM »
I guess this report of this detailed record has already been noted here somewhere, too tired to catch up on all threads.
Scripps institute has obtained and initally resolved a detailed core from West Antarctic Ice Sheet that shows fast increases in ghg levels during deglaciation period in northern hemisphere. The source of the ghgs is still unclear but these spikes of increased natural emissions took place 16,100 years ago, 14,700 years ago, and 11,700 years ago making a very large part (c.35-55%) of the total CO2 rise during the deglaciation.

Science / Paleoclimate study (Pliocene -> Pleistocene)
« on: October 26, 2014, 05:51:39 AM »
Enhanced carbon drawdown by the ocean circulation changes during Pliocene - Pleistocene boundary coincident with the beginning of Pleistocene glacials, by models :

Science / Sea level variability over 5 glacial cycles
« on: October 18, 2014, 06:29:52 AM »
In the article (behind paywall)
authors present comparisons between Arctic and Antarctic drill core records and a new dataset they've obtained from bottom of  the Red Sea, the salinity of which (somewhat) complicatedly, conforms to global sea levels.  Further comparisons were made against paleoclimatological Asian Monsoon record. Speeds of the natural sea level rises during changes in the recent Pleistocene could thus be estimated.
Eelco Rohling (One of the authors) summarizes their findings at Skeptical Science:

the final chapter is as follows:"But that time has come and, once ice sheets start to melt, the freight train is in motion. It will then keep moving for many centuries to come, no matter how hard we stamp on the brakes."

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Temperatures during Greenland deglaciation
« on: September 05, 2014, 05:11:23 AM »
"the Younger Dryas period was 4.5° ± 2°C warmer than the Oldest Dryas, due to increased carbon dioxide forcing and summer insolation. "

Huh, nice to know some of the earlier estimates are likely wrong and there's a larger gap between full blown ice age and the current climate, however the researchers state the temperature swings were quite abrupt, so what the future holds for us, looking decadal swings in T's, still isn't too easily predicted .

Science / The Role of Radiative Transfer in Models (Lacis)
« on: May 29, 2014, 04:55:50 AM »
Stoat highlights a piece Andy Lacis has written as a comment to Climate etc, of all places. If you are, like me, a non-physicist and approaching climate science (and models) from a background in a different discipline of science you may find it illuminating. At least it made sense to me, and it isn't using too much physics lingo. Funny i've not realized that maths sometimes uses the word 'problem' when it's only a question of error bars.

For more "physical persons" Lacis refers to his own paper which is here

Science / Early Anthropocene
« on: May 07, 2014, 09:23:06 AM »
Ruddiman & al new article

While the wide community of Geologists is considering adopting the anthropocene as starting from 1950 (f.e. rise in plutonium amounts due atmospheric nuclear tests, Ruddiman et al. is looking deeper in Holocene (imho an obsolete definition, rather this could later be seen as the transition to the anthropocene) to see how it compares to previous interglacials, finding, among other things, that approximately 5950 years ago (would be, by happenstance, very near 4004 BC  ;)) CO2-levels in Holocene start to deviate from those of earlier interglacials.

See for yourself

Consequences / Catching up with Pliocene atmosphere
« on: April 11, 2014, 05:03:59 AM »
Peter Sinclair interviews Dr. Raymo, Wollaston Medal winner of the year.

Science / Permian extinction possibly caused by microbes?
« on: April 01, 2014, 07:02:47 AM »
Methanogenic microbes have been studied and this has given indications that they acquired a new set of enzymes about the time of Permian extinction. The enzymes provided these a new, third, pathway for producing methane, thus turning them the most efficient methanogens present. As there had been a lot of organic matter washing from the land during previous ages, the reserves of food for this archaea would have been abundant on the ocean floors. As they needed nickel for this pathway to work, the final piece of the hypothesis are the volcanic eruptions from Siberia that were large and rich of nickel.

Because of the day, I had to to check the claim of 13C/12C-ratio drop across the permian-triassic boundary. It appears the hypothesis is not some sick april fools.

Permafrost / novel methanogen prevalent in thawing permafrost
« on: March 13, 2014, 06:22:16 AM »
this colonises the areas that have recently been thawed:

Image is not from Stordalen Mire but about 120m up (along the same road, Katterjåkk, if I remember correctly), but, I guess the archea is found here also. The road bank (facing north) gathers a bit of of the midnight sun and the thawed portion of this mire reached some 20 meters out.

some speculation follows... as the permafrost environment may see multiple freeze-thaw cycles during a year, the microbes here need always to be ready to produce antifreeze compounds essential for survival. this archea must have these enzymatic systems also (for the winter), but possibly goes into hibernation only once in a lifetime (f.e when it meets the first ice crystal), as opposed to very slowly growing true arctic microbes. when the thaw has reached a fixed temperature (say 2C) these archea would wake up and start multiplying no matter what temperature (2-0C), so getting the numbers to diminish would require repeated freeze-thaw cycles. Microbes also need to be a certain size to multiply so these archea would die if the next freeze comes too soon.

Consequences / What's the perfect temperature for earth [poll]?
« on: March 08, 2014, 08:01:03 AM »
As humans are currently considered a force of geologic proportions, let's try in the spirit of
to answer what's the perfect temperature of the earth  ;). Please consider all the effects a stable temperature of your selection will have in equilibrium. This of course assumes that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation, glacier meltdown (or build-up), sea level rise (or drop) have reached a stable state of the temperature selected. In order to get more varied results, please assume further that a stable civilization is still present. Describe the said civilization in comments, if willing. (experiment on futurology). I know there are people who like their living quarters to be constantly over 20 degrees Celsius, and the evenly spread scale ends at 20, but please note this is a Global value, including nights and winters.

Arctic sea ice / Northwest Passage thread
« on: March 01, 2014, 12:38:34 PM »
This is of course way too early concerning navigation as can be seen on the image. Looks like the initial crack in the ice on the passage is on the same location as usual.

Consequences / Wildfires in Norway
« on: January 30, 2014, 05:23:20 AM »
I don't know if these can be tied to the changes in the Arctic weather systems, but all the same, wildfires (ok) in Norway (ok, that's a bit rare) in winter (never heard before!)?

Arctic Background / Glacial CO2
« on: January 05, 2014, 03:11:35 PM »
This is an unanswered question in science, I think, since the Milankovitch cycles are thought likely to be the necessary primer for a glacial period to begin. However, the average value of CO2 at the start of glaciation might have relevance in the interpretation of Holocene events (Early Anthropocene hypothesis). Thus the poll. There might be another threshold for getting an interglacial, comments on these, and other things on glacial cycles below. As hopefully is evident of the poll, this isn't intended as a very serious poll. Poll ends when the next glacial has begun, so no hurry to answer.

[modified poll because of Early Epica core records]

Arctic sea ice / polar vortex - where?
« on: December 27, 2013, 01:30:03 PM »
This is just a question based on the noaa upper level wind re-analysis products in here:

Is my interpretation correct, is the polar vortex in two pieces currently? Could someone point me to a North Pole centered plot for upper level winds?  Also in the image it seems like the subtropical jets cross the equator in tropical eastern Pacific, which might be of common occurrence, I've not followed these well at all.

Antarctica / WAIS during Oligocene
« on: October 11, 2013, 06:55:24 AM »
Some relatively recent news items.

I'd assume it has always been a possibility that during hothouse conditions in Paleocene-Eocene the  West Antarctic was a low plain for the lack of ice induced subsidence. Afterwards during the growth of the ice sheets the crust would have eroded and got down for the weight of ice leaving us today with a ice sheets grounded on ocean. So this isn't probably telling anything about the stability of the WAIS, rather only showing that there's much potential for rebound - so possibly WAIS won't come off continuously when or if it starts...

OT question:
The Bedmap shows (at least to my eye) some higher ground under the marginal sheets on locations. Is there a way to determine the age of these? Are these a result of Pleistocene glaciation cycles or have they formed earlier?

Science / a new normal for the Arctic
« on: October 03, 2013, 05:47:48 AM »
by Jeffries, Overland and Perovich (Physics Today) , a pretty wide-ranging summary article of everything arctic

Science / NH Jet Stream behavior through June-Aug in 2013
« on: September 16, 2013, 06:34:12 AM »
Rare sightings of a doubled jet stream during summer 2013 might help to explain the relatively cool temperatures over arctic (and the diminished amounts of ice export from Arctic Ocean) (original from capital weather gang):

If I recall correctly there was some talk in May of an unseasonal Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. This might be tied to the formation of the June doubled jet. What I've read about doubled ITCZs, this might be something similar. The text has a couple of glitches (where exactly they think N Europe is?) and I've called the R2 type of jet a spiralling (or transitioning or relocating) jet since it isn't contiguous but all the same, this could do as an explanation for the unexpectedly low temperature over the highest arctic during the doubled jet periods. (The warmth from south would have to pass under two low pressure systems to get to the pole, and likely these low pressures would enhance ocean hot/cool mixing further south than usual)

Arctic sea ice / Modified satellite images of Arctic areas
« on: June 30, 2013, 09:29:45 AM »
Currently images made by the contributors of this site are spread far and wide so I thought a thread having a title that tells what there is might be a good idea. F.e., on the blog A-team told of the stacking idea Chris Reynolds used on one tile of the arctic mosaic. The thing is there's plenty to do even on one tile, so a central repository of such images might be in order.

Opening this thread with an image that has the upper part from 21/6/2013 and the lower part 29/6/2013 with quite a lot of adjustment on contrast/brightness. The tile is r03c03, resolution 1km/px (any larger would possibly freeze my computer and myself, not to talk of the forum itself)

(tried also the tile r04c03, went back two weeks, and started stacking relatively cloud-free portions of images, about 50% of the area has had a complete cloud cover for the last two weeks... , if anybody wants to have a go be welcome)

Note on the Greenland ice sheet area: the striping pattern on the sheet is possibly due the individual swaths of the instrument (AFAIK, it works a bit similar to a television-camera)

2nd image is a heavy-handed mod of the cloud-band in 04072013 r04c04 250m/px image. Looks like this thread ended before it properly started, but I might use this for some images. Nevermind.

r03c03 again, fractures on Lincoln Sea have progressed. If you have trouble locating the image, it's been turned c.45 degrees (Ellesmere coast left bottom corner) Clouds on Nares entrance block the view, but the next day it was clear and shows that this is about as far as the cracks have progressed thus far

Curious feature off Novaya Sibir Island SE coast 80 km long perpendicular curvy cracks on ice. Earthquake?

Tropics/mid-latitudes relationship analysed for SH in the Pacific by Wang & Cai. SAM (Southern Annular Mode) vs. ENSO:

Science / Asian Monsoon relation to ENSO studied
« on: April 24, 2013, 08:20:20 AM »
This is hardly surprising, the massive movement of Pacific Ocean water to east in el Nino will likely diminish the exchange between Indian Ocean and ACC (Antarctic circumpolar current) at the other end of this massive double pool of water (Indian-Pacific ocean), letting the Indian ocean to warm up more than usual. What's possibly new with this study, the effect is somewhat quantisized in time and volume of heat.  Wouldn't be surprised though if someone finds an earlier ENSO study with less rigorous speculation of the same phenomenon.

Oops, wrong section -> Science

Arctic Background / Baltic Images
« on: April 22, 2013, 07:57:20 AM »
a couple of images of various stages of melt in the baltic.
1. rotten large floe (c.100m in diameter)
2. ship wave action on broken up rotten ice
3. about the smallest chunks still easily seen from above (c.1-3 m diam.)
4. the remnants of type 3's, almost wholly submerged 

Antarctica / THC origins in the Antarctic side faltering?
« on: April 12, 2013, 07:22:53 AM »
FishOutofWater attempts to connect various recent articles on Antarctic Sea Ice, ice sheet meltdown, and changes of global scale THC (ThermoHaline Circulation) into a coherent piece and does pretty well in my opinion, but as dailykos is an opinion site , there maybe some glitches (am I correct with the word? glitch - minor error,  logical jump jumping over some fact , or similar) in it. Usually FOoW's diaries are pretty well researched, but on this occasion I do not know if this is the case.

Consequences / ITCZ (InterTropical Convergence Zone) to move
« on: April 06, 2013, 08:05:12 AM »
A new study that makes sense to me at least:
As the temperature gradient on the NH gets smaller due the arctic sea ice loss the study predicts northward movement of the ITCZ. This would likely mean a slight adjustment also in the location and effects of el Ninos/Ninas in my view. Also the southern parts of Sahara might get wetter. But I guess this brings no relief to the Australian drought. The news item is made from a press release so we'll have to wait a bit to read the study itself.

The rest / On an environmental religion.
« on: March 03, 2013, 08:58:22 AM »
The religions of the world have a large influence on earthly matters. The AGW and it's consequences might cause some strain to some belief systems, as many projections state earth and the habitat for humanity may enter physical conditions not seen by any people before. So there may be a need to seek out new and old  ideas about environment and religion, a 'critical assessment of man's place in the multiverse', if you will.

Thus, it might be useful to have a discussion thread dedicated to a speculative religion that would have environmental ideas as it's central theme. Though, I guess, the evil of man (present in many extant religions too) cannot be wholly eradicated in this either, there might be some ways to treat this problem differently from extant religions. So, what are environmental sins, how might the speculative religion treat these, and many other questions relating to the man's place on earth, relation to nature and each other. Please restrict POV-pushing for specific extant religions to other threads. Ideas from other religions are welcome, though.

The forum / test message
« on: March 03, 2013, 07:19:20 AM »
without javascript on. Thanks for setting this forum up. I use a different nickname elsewhere. I'm not expecting to write much here on sea ice, given the expertise of the regulars on the subject of the blog. Still had to register though, since I might have something equally non-expert to say on other subjects.

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