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Topics - LRC1962

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1
The forum / FYI re family friendly hotspots
« on: July 29, 2015, 12:12:58 AM »
For reasons out of my control I am stuck with a family friendly hot spot. Someone let lose a stinky one in the http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1149.0.html because I am now band from it. For everyone's enjoyment please take care of language as parental engines are sometimes out of control of the user.

2
The rest / What we can not talk about
« on: July 17, 2015, 01:48:32 AM »
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/why-drought-is-a-dirty-word-in-alberta-1.3154000
We can not mention the word drought in Alberta, high tide flood due to 'sea level rise' in Florida, recession when the economy is going bad, not inform people that having a lot of rain in a short time a drought area can actually make things worse because it will not stick around and damages the land severely at the same time.
Almost forgot. Can not call a local team awful when they never win because it will damage the players self esteem (or maybe owners/management egos)

3
Arctic sea ice / Arctic cracks
« on: May 28, 2015, 06:08:00 AM »
Saw a Doc done by David Attenborough. Can not remember the name of the exact title, but in it he went with an Inuit hunter out on the Arctic ice. The hunter as part of the trip recorded all the cracks he found with GPS location and any other relevant information. The reason for this is that almost all cracks form in the same same spot year after year. Another reason was for both scientific study, but also for informing Arctic communities for safety reasons in the changing Arctic environment.
Any new ones found would also be recorded as it would be presumed that the new cracks would follow the same pattern. Thought it worth mentioning because the same has been noted many times in this forum as we watch as the melt season develops.

4
Arctic Background / Importance of waves in the Arctic
« on: April 08, 2015, 11:20:27 PM »
A few publications I have found regarding waves in the Arctic.
Wave heights in the 21st century Arctic Ocean simulated with a regional climate model
In conclusion, we conducted an analysis of possible changes to the wind-wave climate in the Arctic Ocean in
the 21st century. This was done by means of a third-generation wave model and climate modeling under an
anthropogenic-forcing scenario. The outcomes demonstrate overall growth in wave height in the Arctic.
Concurrent with mean wave growth, models predict more frequent extreme waves in different areas of
the Ocean.

Estimates of ocean wave heights and attenuation in sea ice using the SAR wave mode on Sentinel-1A
Abstract
Swell evolution from the open ocean into sea ice is poorly understood, in particular the amplitude attenuation expected from scattering and dissipation. New synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from Sentinel-1A wave mode reveal intriguing patterns of bright oscillating lines shaped like instant noodles. We investigate cases in which the oscillations are in the azimuth direction, around a straight line in the range direction. This observation is interpreted as the distortion by the SAR processing of crests from a first swell, due to the presence of a second swell. Since deviations from a straight line should be proportional to the orbital velocity toward the satellite, swell height can be estimated, from 1.5 to 5 m in the present case. The evolution of this 13 s period swell across the ice pack is consistent with an exponential attenuation on a length scale of 200 km.
Behind paywall.

5
The rest / Recovery/prevention of desertification
« on: April 07, 2015, 11:14:49 PM »
Desertification is going to be one of the big land based positive (very bad) feedbacks of higher temperatures. See how much the Sahara Desert influences Atlantic storms and also rainfall in the Amazon. Dust Storms In Sahara Desert Trigger Huge Plankton Blooms In Eastern Atlantic. seems to put a positive spin on things. Wonder how much an impact Africa would be if Sahara was all vegetation?
Back on topic. Came across two different approaches to reclaiming land. Very different and acotding to these reports both successful.
https://youtu.be/vpTHi7O66pI
https://youtu.be/K1rKDXuZ8C0

6
Science / A positive understandable message
« on: March 31, 2015, 01:32:09 AM »
Do not know if anyone caught this telecast. An interview with David Suzuki the best known Canadian scientists in Canada and maybe the world. Has been host of national radio and tv weekly science shows since 1970 and still involved with the tv program The Nature of things. He is an ardent environmentalist, but as can be seen from the interviews that he has a good grasp of understanding where his common fellow mans main concerns lie.
His prognosis. The earth will outlast us, As for us, it took the USA 13 to go from no space program at the time of Sputnik, to landing a man on the moon. It did not destroy the economy to do that, in fact it started the computer age among with many other things. So he does believe we can meet the challenge again without destroying the economy. It is a two part series.




Edit:Placing share youtube link in between the url codes and when I save it changes are automatically made that do not embed the clip ([url=https://youtu.be) is added. Tried deleting and did not fix it. Is it a bug, or me?

7
Developers Corner / Sea ice calculations and instruments used.
« on: March 23, 2015, 05:05:37 PM »
We show a variety of charts from a variety of sources to calculate sea ice extent and area. Each have their own mathematical models and use different source satellites. The question I have is has anyone thought of doing something similar to calculate sea ice as they do in astronomy or surveillance?
In astronomy there are two different ways of getting higher definition. One way is making bigger and more powerful telescopes, the other is to have many telescopes take the same picture and combine them.
You can do the same thing in photography. take a picture with a bigger heavier camera, or as what is being done with some new advanced surveillance UAVs load it with a lot of cell phone cameras and actually get even better results.
Back to sea ice has anyone thought of taking the data from all those satellites flying over the poles combining them and coming up with a higher resolution end product? Or is it a case that each satellite is proprietary and no one wants to share raw data, or the computer power needed to combine all that data is technologically not yet feasible? An argument could be made that they are looking at different types of data that are not really compatible, but would it not be that much dissimilar to taking the same picture but with different filters then combining them to get one picture? Or is that too simplistic an illustration?

8
Consequences / The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: March 20, 2015, 08:00:15 AM »
(If someone has a better acronym try it)
It may be interesting to see the effects of the melting Arctic on the jet stream. What I am dubbing the visualization of the DUSTY (Do You See That Yo-yo) Jet Stream. We now have several sites where we can see the jet stream graphically and clearly displayed, so there are a lot of sources to draw from.  We know that the slowing jet stream is wavering terribly in the last few years. We also know the patterns such as the"Ridiculously Resilient Ridges and Terribly Tenacious Troughs" can last from a few days to a few weeks. I also have see a few times where a piece of the JS has broken off and established a circle pattern, sometimes with bad consequences Such as happened to Alberta a couple of years ago in which a weather system got stuck, that one picked up moisture from the Hudson Bay brought it back to the Rockies, It rained, went back far enough east to get more moisture, then back west to the Rockies to rain more. Did this for over a month if my memory serves and caused millions in damages in floods. So although serious I thought it would be fun to collect some of these patterns.
Rules:
1). Must be Jet Stream patterns.
2). Must be graphical in nature.
3). More 'unusual' the better. (Grated the unusual is becoming more the norm now.)
4). Must hold its pattern more or less in the same region of the world for more than 3 days. If really strange we can go with 48 hours.
Note: Major weather patterns such as El Nino has been known to establish very firm northern and southern streams. As has been noted has been known for a piece to break off and establish a circle pattern in one spot, usually for only a day or so, but now has been seen for longer periods. North America, because of its media focus and moneyed population has a higher scrutiny but similar things have happened all over the Northern Hemisphere. As seen in the last few months a Ridiculously Resilient Ridge had sent  a large number of cyclones into the Arctic through the area of the Norwegian Sea. Then of course maybe the pattern a complete break in the JS over a significant area.

9
Science / What about oxygen levels?
« on: February 27, 2015, 07:50:43 AM »
A question has come to mind. Statement of facts. CO2 levels rising at alarming rates. Forests and plant growing areas getting lost at alarming rates (although saw one argument that hey wouldn't count anyway as they are basically carbon neutral as very little gets buried. Oxygen producing ocean plankton down by alarming rates usually blamed on acidification. The higher pollutants count gets in the atmosphere the more oxygen needed for body to counteract the effects. Given all that what are the actual oxygen levels, how fast are they failing and at what point do things get to be a health hazard to humans?
By doing a search oxygen has come up on occasion, but usually in context of a consequence of a previous statement, or an one off observation, and not as a line of inquiry. This is by no meas a scientific study and probably pathetic at best, but is an attempt at showing our grand CO2 experiment maybe has other very dangerous implications to us as individuals.
I have found a variety of articles that deal somewhat with the problem, but it seems to be a subject that is not studied that much, very difficult to get good numbers historically and generally am left with the impression that It is something that after the advent of photosynthesizing critters has always been there and always will be. Not only that is that in different places I saw they talked in terms of PPM, % , showing a decline but starting point was 0.
Maybe it is nothing to be worried about, but still think it would have some relevance in todays world.
In no particular order, but giving some indication as to subject.
With forest resources--"the lungs of the Earth"-- under attack in many regions, some have raised concerns about the planet's oxygen supply. A leading geochemist assesses these claims and finds that we can probably breathe easy, this does not talk at all about deletion of ocean lungs.
O2 Dropping Faster than CO2 Rising
Scripps O2 Global Oxygen Measurements.
The changes are too small to have an impact on human health, but are of interest to the study of climate change and carbon dioxide.
Statement maybe true at this point, but as we has no reference points to look at historically, we do not have a good idea where we have fallen fron and how fast it is happening. Wikipedia does have a chart, but that was debunked as its main source was based on bubbles trapped in amber. The problem came when it was found amber exchanges the gas in the bubble with outside air every 1,000 yrs or so.
Acid Seas Threaten Creatures That Supply Half the World's Oxygen
Smothered oceans: Extreme oxygen loss in oceans accompanied past global climate change
Full research article.
Paleoceanographic Insights on Recent Oxygen Minimum Zone Expansion: Lessons for Modern Oceanography

Ocean’s most oxygen-deprived zones to shrink under climate change Issue I have is that you can not necessarily extrapolate conclusion to the whole ocean as you can with acidification on shelled creatures.
On a different problem and I will not vouch for accuracy Why are Millions of Sea Creatures Dying off the Pacific Coast Fukushima seems to be have major consequences and from everything I have gathered their troubles are getting much worse as time goes on and not better. Another experiment that could have long ranging impacts on a lot of the earth. One warning as what is occurring on several news sites now, those sliding popups are a major pain.
Granted this has no direct bearing on arctic sea ice, I see it as another consequence of CO2 rising which does have a direct impact on sea ice.

10
Policy and solutions / Could Industrial hemp be a solution to CO2
« on: February 25, 2015, 02:56:06 AM »
For starters, industrial hemp has such low levels of THC it is impossible to get high on it.
There are some who estimate that there are 10s of thousand of uses that hemp can be used for with no advances in technology. Not only that but for each and every use it is cheaper, uses for less energy then current methods, has little or no toxic bi products as a result of production methods, and gives off very little to no CO2 as a result a chemical reactions during production.
Key to success would be legislation demanding it be done. Not unusual as at the start of the USA as a country it was the law that 10% of all cultivated land must grow hemp as it was such a strategically import product for the nation.
Understanding the Hemp Plant and its 50,000 Uses and Benefits!
Hemp fibres 'better than graphene'
Some points to ponder. Almost all parts of the plant are useful. The head where the seed oil and resin are, can go to food and pharmaceutical companies. The veins of the stock can go to the paper, textile, and many other sectors. The core where the shives are can go to the construction, oil industry, plastics industry and who knows what else. Also get rid of all the red tape that currently exists.
As far has growing is concerned (depends somewhat on how you grow it), you need no herbicides (its a weed and will die from it), has very few know pests or funguses that attack it (although me thinking is that you change variety on a regular bases to avoid attracting pests that may get to like it) and therefore very little pesticides will be needed if at all.  If you crop rotating with a nitrogen fixing plant every 4-5 plantings very little fertilizer would be needed if at all. Because of its 12 ft. tap root and the type of plant it is, it needs far less water then most other cultivated plants. I also read somewhere that growers have been successful growing just by lifting the soil and dropping in the seed. If this is true then the ability of the land to retain moisture is greatly enhanced. They have discovered (lost source) that microbes attracted to hemp brake down petrochemical plastics therefore the idea could be what it might do to rehabilitate toxic lands. Bangladesh got its name from the hemp that used to grow wild and that controlled a lot of the monsoon floods because of its tap root.
Highlighting some of the many uses we know about now. (please add more if you care to add to topic.
Use as main material in in building of low rise buildings (1-3 stories). Currently most practices use 2x4 as structural support (some codes ask for spacing of twice  the normal spacing). My thinking is that bamboo would be an excellent choice as it gives good structural support and is flexibility would work well with hempcrete's best asset which is its tensile strength (ability to avoid cracking). If you build it thick enough then you would not need any insulation no matter what the weather, it resists fire to a very high degree, it does not mildew (lime in hempcrete kills it), termite and other insect proof, and rodents do not care to dig or eat it. The hempcrete breathes air (without losing thermal qualities and moisture thereby reducing are eliminating chances of sick building syndrome. Note Hempcrete does eventually turn to stone as lime takes the carbon from CO2 and calcifies.
If Ford could make a car almost entirely from hemp and proving it was as strong or stronger then most metals then think of what you can build with it (most composite materials in cars today have a very toxic start and toxic ending, hemp in whatever form it takes can be composited).
Most paper used in in the western world at least up until mid 1930's was made from hemp. Far more durable, non acidic, and no sulfur dioxide in production.
Anything that is made by the pharmaceutical/petrochemical companies can be easily made from hemp oils, resin and cellulose.
The electronic world is a more recent discovery and there it seems to be the sky is the limit.
Hemp seed is the only plant material that has every amino acid needed by the human body to live. Other then for purposes of flour, it can easily replace every other grain grown.
Note: Probably missed a lot I meant to say, but will leave it for later.
How can this all work? Other then if for flour and variety, if every field that is used to grow corn and any other grain products was turned to producing hemp there would be plenty of raw material to satisfy the needs  of almost the entire manufacturing complex in the world. At the same time you would not need any more oil/coal/natural gas. on top of that most forests would be saved as the majority of the wood uses can be replaced by hemp products. For energy needs wind and solar are still the most preferable as they are the most carbon neutral (making the equipment will add CO2), hemp fuel is not the worst as it is grown taking out CO2 from the air to make the fuel on an annual bases. Another major advantage is the the 3rd world would not need a source of oil to catch to the rest of the world, to would just need to grow hemp.
Is it all hype? Diesel and Otto built engines to be used by hemp oil. lots of clothes were made froom hemp in the past. Sailing ships ran on hemp products. Most parachutes in WWII were made from hemp. Some of the uses are centuries old others are fairly new, but for a plant that grows so fast and can be put to so many uses taking out CO2 on either a short term or long term bases wouldn't it make sense to make use of it. Also with no new innovation needed at the any stage you would make a major dent in your over all CO2 plus other major sources of pollutants.

11
Arctic Background / Film clip shows North Pole circa late 40's
« on: February 20, 2015, 06:46:46 AM »
Watching something else entirely. came across film that shows a group of airplanes landing at the North Pole in the late 40's. What a pristine flat surface it was at that time. By the shawdos I wouls saw mid summer as it appears the sun must be fairly high in the sky.
Note: The NP shows up at around the 6:30 min mark.

12
The rest / For those who have had enough of snow
« on: February 15, 2015, 02:12:28 AM »
Change the names that apply to your own location and it is easy to catch the drift. :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seaOX_Np-Qc&app=desktop

13
The rest / How what we do today can follow us for many generations.
« on: January 28, 2015, 02:34:31 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCeV3steGfQ
Mistitled. Should be The ghost in your genes. One example they use is that of how a father and /or mother that has or is going through famine can effect genetic expression of 2-3 generations that follow. Conclusion of one Doctor was that we really must take care of our situation we live in today because even if things turn out better for following generations what we do with our bodies and environment today will affect them.
Not directly related to Arctic, but to my mind just farther evidence that what every we do today will have consequences for many generations.

14
Arctic sea ice / Report from NOAA
« on: January 06, 2015, 03:05:48 PM »
Rising air and sea temperatures continue to trigger changes in the Arctic
Came across this interesting report which seems to not have made any comments on in this forum that I can find. Just a few points of interest that I have.
Air temperatures: The jet stream pattern during early 2014 sent extreme cold air southward into eastern North America- and central Russia and extreme warm air northward into Alaska and northern Europe. Alaska recorded temperature anomalies more than 18 degrees Fahrenheit (10 degrees Celsius) higher than the January average.
 

Cold air flow to the south means equally higher temps in the Arctic?
Snow cover: Snow cover across the Arctic during spring of 2014 was below the long-term mean of 1981-2010, with a new record low set in April for Eurasia and North America’s June snow extent the third lowest on record. Snow disappeared three to four weeks earlier than normal in western Russia, Scandinavia, the Canadian subarctic and western Alaska due to below average accumulation and above normal spring temperatures.

Although colder weather did come as did higher snowfalls, still 4 more weeks of very low albedo.
Sea ice: The extent of sea ice in September 2014 was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents since 1979 have occurred in the last eight years (2007-2014). At the time of maximum ice extent in March 2014, there had been a modest increase in ice thickness and age relative to the same time in 2013. Despite this, there is still much less of the oldest, thickest (greater than 13 feet or 4 meters) and most resilient ice than in 1988, when the oldest ice made up 26 percent of the ice pack compared to 10 percent this year.
Arctic Ocean temperature: As sea ice retreats in summer, sea surface temperature (SST) in all the seas of the Arctic Ocean is increasing. The most significant linear trend is in the Chukchi Sea, northwest of Alaska, where SST is increasing at a rate of 0.9 degrees F (0.5 °C) per decade. In August 2014, in the Laptev Sea, north of Russia, and in the Bering Strait region, SST was as much as 7.2°F higher than the 1982-2010 average, while SST in the Barents Sea, north of Norway, was about 7.2°F lower than it was in 2013 but close to the 1982-2010 average.

Although a "rebound" has occurred in the last 2 years, the stats say things are still in very bad state. Those temps also seem to my mind mean that although the ice is forming and is thickening, the ice is not near as strong because it is not near as cold as it used to be. Warmer ice = more water in the ice.
Also thicker ice means a tendency toward higher density which creates heat, and if the temps not cold enough will liquify.
Arctic Ocean productivity: Declining sea ice is leading to an increase in sunlight reaching the upper layers of the ocean, setting off increased photosynthesis and greater production of phytoplankton, tiny marine plants which form the base of the food chain for fish and marine mammals. The timing of phytoplankton blooms throughout the Arctic Ocean is also being affected, with more frequent secondary blooms during the fall. In June, July and August 2014 the highest primary production - occurred in the Kara and Laptev seas north of Russia. 
Vegetation: On land, peak tundra greenness, a measure of vegetation productivity and biomass, continues to increase. Between 1982 and 2013, the tundra biomass has increased by 20 percent. However, tundra greenness integrated over the entire summer shows a browning trend occurring in Eurasia, where summer air temperatures have also been decreasing.

Organic production creates its own heat also creates added insulation factors. This all promotes micro climates that tend towards a positive feedback loop. A question does come to mind is how much does ocean production influence currents or indicate changes in currents?
Reason I like this kind of report it give a broader scope and shows the interconnectedness of the complexity of our environment and how one thing can affect many other things which then can influence in a positive or negative way the whole. One thing it did not include (which really is not part of what they do granted) is the higher increase in fires which if I remember rightly was worse  in 2014, which adds heat but also soot and black carbon to the ice.
The fires maybe also burning off methane but it could be releasing more methane from promoting melt and although the soot and BC does not raise temps directly it does melt ice fast and it stays on the ice until the ice is gone.

15
Science / Great youtube University background course
« on: December 12, 2014, 01:26:27 AM »
For all those that would like to have the abc's of Cryosphere and AGW, I stumbled on this youtube series. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Bs8wRHsc5k&list=PLqOZ6FD_RQ7naGB0pp1C4O8gVCgS4gd36
It is an acual university course, and in 26 45 minute classes gives you a very good grounding for a good many things that are talked about in this forum. Such as formulae that are used and a very good grounding over all to understanding what is happening and why.
Do plan to work through some of it and see how far I can go before it gets too much.

16
Have been watching several talks on youtube by Richard Alley. A few times he mentioned rapid temp rises that have happened in Greenlands past. One such occurrence was the Younger Dryas. Temp changes happened within a decade or 2 or sometimes in a year or 2 based on the evidence and the rises in temp were of the order of +15C.  RA tends to be an optimist by nature and avoids bad scenarios like the plague, so he would of course would say that he does not think that conditions are not right for it happening in this century. He also thinks that there enough humpy ground under the GIS to hold the inner sheet stable. Based on that could it be possible that we could see such a rise in the near future and how damaging could that be to the inner GIS?
Note: I do not mean to disparage him in any way as he is very knowledgeable, but from his talks I do feel he tends to be a little too optimistic compared to some of the rest of his peer group.

17
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/un-climate-summit-to-lay-groundwork-for-global-plan-to-curb-emissions-1.2772496
Do not hold much hope for any resolution and even if there is the future price in CW will still be very steep. This article does show that some movement is being made, but unfortunately in my country, political leaders still can not see what is really happening and going to happen.
As what happened with the antismoking campaigns there were many false starts and then even many long decades before federal and local laws got tough enough to help those who wish not to smoke.  In the same way I think similar action on the environment. Here is hoping that even if nothing gets done from the UN stand point it will get enough attention that local and federal policies will make swifter progress.

18
Arctic Background / Mathematics and sea ice
« on: June 28, 2014, 11:14:12 PM »
Came across this video seminar to HS students.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8ntyZh0vbY
It is giving a talk about how math can be used to determine such things as melt pond effects on ice, sea ice permeability, why finding thickness of ice so difficult... very broad ranging.
Warnings: is almost an hr long, 1st part is basic background, then the math science comes  very fast and may want to be prepared to repeat sections. Math is not needed to understand what he is talking about.

Edit: tried embedding video but can not figure out code that works.

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