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Messages - magnamentis

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Preliminary PIOMAS data shows a pretty weak melt in May so far (weakest in ten years by my estimatation from Wipneus' graphs).

While I still think there's a good chance of a record this year, I also think there's a good chance that 2012 overtakes 2017 mid June and never loses its lead again and that's enough for me to switch to 2018+2019.

once again i want to point out the melt rate will fall the less ice there is to melt. to avoid a lengthy post i use the same extreme example again, once there is no ice left the melt rate will be zero logically and since volume has been on earlier summer levels in april it is simply not possible that the same melt rate can happen, else we would reach zero in juli instead of miinimum during fall.
unfortunately i'm not good in explaining things short, it would fill pages time would i try, so i hope someone gets my point and perhaps puts it into better wording, something that thankfully happened in the past.

observers have to adapt their thinking patterns and expectations to new starting situations.
it's like if a ski race's start point is lowered a few hundred meters, that someone would call the race slow because the speed of the drivers is close the zero on the same spot while it was over 100km/h before when the start was higher up.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 23, 2017, 10:29:33 PM »
it's this what i was referring to while insolation was even poor over the last few days and temps WERE (are not now) well below freezing point, there are huge poodles and all the rest i mentioned, not even mentioning the ope water which has been there for many days now which at times one can clearly see at the horizon and verify over satellite.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 23, 2017, 10:25:11 PM »
I believe temps have been slightly above 0 at times in the last few days

yes you're right but they are below in that picture and the ponds are not refrozen as well as the water in the streets is still liquid and flowing due to insolation o dark ground. as i said, i used this as an example while what really caught my eyes recently was the amount of soot getting higher every season on greenland's ice-sheet and this year extremely so visible on barrows webcam. barrows has hardly be over 0C this year, could even be the first day today (significantly) and already there are poodles and melt is ongoing on that lake to the right and that was at temps of minus 4-8C, wind chill not counted. the intention of my post was to illustrate that long before temps reach 0C and higher, significant melt could start if the ice/snow is dirty and the sun is strong enough.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 23, 2017, 10:20:01 PM »
Lincoln Sea May 23th 2016 vs 21/21/23 2017. I made a stitch of the 3 days, to make the image as clear as possible with least clouds.

this is a great contribution because it not only shows the ice condition in that regions but stands for most of the rest of the arctic, no matter what the extent currently is. ice has been rubble from last year and due to lack of freezing days/temps has been glued/frozen together only very poorly. further the higher mobility across the board applies further stress to the already non-solid ice cover which later in the melting season will cause rapid disintegration on an unseen scale, at least, provided that the weather will not be "extremely" ice friendly or melting unfriendly. i think that we shall see days where huge areas will fall below the 15% threshold withing a few days which will eventually show as the famous "pooof" effects which in parts we have seen last year already.

It looks as though they still haven't worked out some of the problems I'd identified back in the day. Eat just one cute kitten and the lawsuit will break you. Even chewing through a neighbor's prize zinnia's won't win friends.

I think my vaporware would run circles around their hardware. ;<}


some modern robots like the one i own for vacuum cleaning come with limiter tools that draw virtual lines which the machine would not cross, i.e. so that it wouldn't fall down the stairs or hit sensitive furniture and equipment. i'm sure that this is available for all kinds of robots nowadays and where it isn't it will very soon be. if i didn't get you wrong that would solve one of your main concerns that the machine would enter unwanted territory :-)

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 23, 2017, 10:08:32 PM »
in this (current [see time stamp]) image you can clearly see the horizon as well as some features in the foreground which as i said clearly indicate that the lense is not obscured this time ( but it has been in the past while one can see the difference with a bit of experience )

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 23, 2017, 05:16:22 PM »
a nice example as to what insolation combined with low albedo, i'm referring to the dark ice in barrows and other places, can do even at clearly below freezing temps. one can see melt ponding as well as water flowing down the road even though temps are 2-3C below 0, coming from even lower and a decent wind chill factor.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 23, 2017, 05:09:05 PM »
It's great to see that we are about to hit 7 days of straight uptime on #14! It appears that the batteries started to really drop out about a month ago and are only providing slight power buffering from the solar panels, which are now benefiting from 24hr daylight.

Also, there have been quite a few blizzards or dense ice fogs over the last 2+ weeks. When we had some clear conditions a few days back, I feel like the drifts appeared a bit larger and more widespread.

When the view is obscured like this I am always wondering whether it's fog or whether something is obstructing the lens -- like a thin layer of frost. Fog seems like the right answer here considering that the humidity is high, and considering that we've had some back and forth between the foggy view and a clear view during the last month.

I understand that there's a difference between ice fog and freezing fog. This would be freezing fog, right? Supercooled droplets of water rather than ice crystals, since the temperature is near 0°C.

I am tremendously interested to see what the view looks like once it clears. Will we see evidence of melting? How long before we see melt pools like we did last year?

while it can be both, this time it's fog because at times one can see the horizon which is not possible if the lense is layered with vapor, snow or anything of that kind. once the lense is covered one can see that very well. if you want to verify this just check several times a day until the light conditions allow to see the horizon, i think it's even there in one of the recently posted images but you'll see.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 23, 2017, 05:05:43 PM »
Seems like we are on the verge to see some decent action in work soon.

Yes, the Atlantic side is to blame for why we are lagging in extent numbers. Despite fairly cool weather conditions in Kara Sea, the ice there will start to see some major damage soon. The same should be true for the ice between Franz Josefs land and Svalbard but especially in the Labrador Sea.

At least 1-2, maybe even 3, Century breaks should not be of bound for the next 7 days as the Arctic continues to heat up.

exactly what i think and i forgot to mention before that not only did the very mobile ice drift in large quantities to the atlantic side, compared to other years big parts of that ice is very thick MYI, felt almost half of the remaining MYI is now in in that part of the arctic, including the relative thick ice that drifted almost the entire winter towards fram and probably takes a bit longer to melt out than the thinner ice of previous years. that's just a rudimentary assessment of the situation, a precise analyzes would shed more light, only that i lack the skills to do that myself :-)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 23, 2017, 03:12:22 PM »
A very strange year in terms of extent. One might expect lower extent at this time, considering the poor winter and the huge lead in PIOMAS numbers, but instead we are 7th on the IJIS rankings. On the other hand, digging into the numbers shows a huge positive anomaly in the Barents sea, and much higher than normal extent in the Greenland sea and Baffin bay. Altogether the Atlantic side explains the whole anomaly. As the Atlantic is export-based, this will all go to hell at some point, but I'm sure current numbers have caused some raised eyebrows.

true but it has all been explained various times by myself and others. in nevens blog there is another nice excerpt about how tho see this. has a lot to do with fragmentation, mobility and as the only previously unknown the current weather/temps. as i stated earlier we're definitely in for a sudden drop of some kind, there will be a rude awakening for those with the risen eyebrows, at least if i understood correctly and you refer to doubters :-)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 06:16:40 PM »
Barrow web cam is showing sea ice melt the last couple of days. Puddles in town and melt on the lake right side of picture frame.

considering the soot that has been visible for at last 2-3 weeks this had to be expected and is a very good first hand example as to what dark ice/snow surfaces will do, even though i've not seen any temps above 0C in barrow over the last two weeks and i check on that one daily. well worth a mention, thanks because i think albedo reduction due to soot on surfaces will play an increasing role. for every layer of snow/ice that will melt, the "built-in" dirt will accumulate and make for an ever increasing darkening. another positive feedback so to say, negative in relation to keeping ice intact of course LOL

this can be observed on glaciers for long but i think now it will increasing impact sea ice, expecially where it was older ice which in barrow of course is not the case.

Arctic Background / Re: Dark Snow
« on: May 22, 2017, 06:13:19 PM »
a good example what dark snow (soot on snow) will do increasingly is visible on barrow webcam. permanent temps below 0C but a bit of sunshine (not that much really) and i'ts melting all over the place.

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 17, 2017, 11:36:36 PM »
Other than the odd flat-topped mountain (Thanks, Mr. Peabody) there aren't a lot of place that are good for large solar.  And there aren't big transmission lines. 

Solar farms don't have to be flat.  And all those coal-fired power plants we're closing have transmission lines, ready to be tapped into.

still better than fossil but this kind of solar farms are horrible and will certainly soon be banned. before we cover natural ground with panels all over the place we should cover each roof by law, the way we have to buy new oil firing units by law now to meet exhaust requirements. i still cannot understand why in places with 350 days of sunshine and/or wind, PV is not mandatory for newly bullt and reconstructed buildings, especially those with flat roofs, and, with a generous transition period, for all suitable buildings. if that could be achieved, there would be no need to further reduce open land area for whatever. further we should rebuild forests intensely because co2 is not only about exhaust, but about natural transformation as well. a holistic approach is desperately needed, to clog one hole with another is not a solution but possibly worse longterm. why, because of all the unknown and not put into account variables. history has shown that technical solutions that were not thought to the end usually worsened things.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 17, 2017, 11:20:31 PM »
Most of the ice in the Hudson bay, Labrador sea Bay, The ice on the coast of Greenland south of the Denmark Strait has a blueish tinge on Worldview from the recent high temperatures. It wouldn't surprise if they melt out quickly now, particularly considering the warmth and rain predicted over the next week.
I agree re: blue-ish tinge, but it is also quite thick -- moreso than in most recent years. Combined with the low SSTs in the vicinity/import from Nares, I think it will prove surprisingly resilient, but I could definitely be wrong!

let's see, i think that thick ice you mention is an illusion. considering the state of the ice in december and parts of january it simply cannot be that thick and certainly not thicker than other years while, of course there are regional alterations each year. IMO there no more really thick ice as compared to previous years.

as to SSTs more early melt = colder surface water while i'm not sure whether that holds in deeper waters and considering that temps of those waters in general, around freezing point, it cannot be that much colder without freezing, especially since salinity is lower in melting zones and where meltwater is reaching from such zones.

my point is that any attempt to paint anything nice or hopeful is in vain, if not always as expected in time, but still in general and even though we all expect something big scale to happen soon, i'm sure the world will be thunder struck despite we all know what's coming.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 16, 2017, 05:12:20 PM »
since the oceans are warming in general, that cold spot, i relation to the surrounding seas, will ultimately still be warmer or the same like before. hope it's clear what i'm heading at.

a 2C colder spot in 10C water is 8C while while once it was 6 or 8 C for example. further i do not believe in those scencarios at all. even if the gulf stream will start dropping to the sea-floor 1000km earlier, it will still do it's job for most of western europe, perhaps, due to the generally warmer waters flowing up from the carribian even more so.

however, this is all prone to a huge amount of speculation due to its complexity, it's weven possible that the very very cold (1-2C waters flowing down from greenland will once simply free fall to the see floor, at least if the difference in temperature is great enough to compensate for the difference in salinity, or, it will first start to reduce salinity and drop to the sea-floor once salinity reaches a level where the difference in temperature has the great impact. last but not least we could face a different behaviour in winter and in summer, simply too many unknowns to make a bold statement like "IT WILL" IMO

i think that at best one could say that "IT COULD" while i clearly don't think so as far as european average temps are concerned, after all the globe is heating up and even hudson bay could see up to 5C higher average temps if things go the suspected way and it's INLAND. everyone knows that inland it's colder in winter and hotter in summer, best example since we follow up those things is SIBIRIA. 45C in summer and -50 in winter so to say.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 15, 2017, 05:36:00 PM »
we are still 400.000 km2 lower than 2012 and 140.000 km2 lower than 2007 at this time of the year, which were lowest and 3rd lowest ever recorded, so based on that still 'on schedule' for a new record, around 2.6/2.7k km2

Or we are ~800.000 above 2016, so we won't get below 5 million km2 this year.

Or the gap with the 2000's average is halved in 2 months (800k earlier, 400k now), so in 4 months (2*400k) we will be 400k higher than the 2000's average, so around 6 million km2

Just pick the one you want, they are all based on the same set of numbers ;)
But you can look at probabilities of various outcomes by comparing required melting for an outcome against historical actual melting rates. I think that has some validity for a risk analysis.  But I am too lazy to do it.

that's exactly his and my point, the current extent ist totally irrelevant, mentioning it is useless and just cloggs the thread while anyone reading here will know that anyways because i'm sure that close to 100% of all readers are consulting the approprate graphs and stats every day.

and this is why there are reactions on such posts, for someone who is seeking real info, something that adds to the learning and understanding curve this is annoying because one has to read 9 such posts before reaching a valueable contribution. just my 2cts and i know that others see this different and many like this kind of chatter while i think there are better places to chat, facebook and the likes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 14, 2017, 05:58:09 PM »
Speaking about thin ice. The latest report on the Meereisportal site confirms that first-year ice is thinner than it was in previous years (no measurable changes in MYI thickness):

AWI Meereisforscher haben im März und April mehrere Messkampagnen in der Arktis geleitet, um aktuelle Informationen über den Zustand des Meereises in der hohen Arktis zu gewinnen, was ein wichtiger Parameter zur Beurteilung von Meereisveränderungen ist. Die Ergebnisse zeigen grundsätzlich, dass sich insbesondere die Dicke des einjährigen Eises gegenüber den Vorjahren etwas verringert hat. Dies ist vermutlich auf die höheren mittleren Lufttemperaturen im Verlauf des vergangenen Winters zurückzuführen. Damit wird das Eis sehr empfindlich auf das Wetter im Sommer reagieren, und ein sehr stärkerer Eisrückgang als in den Vorjahren ist bei ähnlichen Wetterbedingungen nicht unwahrscheinlich. Im Gegensatz zum einjährigen Eis konnten Dickenänderungen des mehrjährigen Eises nicht eindeutig beobachtet werden.

not measurable is an important detail and what matters is that there is a lot less MYI. all that together tells the whole tail as to where we're headed, independently of when exactly what will happen which is hard to predict.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 13, 2017, 07:15:52 PM »

12,266,647 km2(May 11, 2017)down 55,271 km2 and 6th lowest measured for the date.

Hmm. You'd think there would be more celebration that the ice is hanging on, at least for now.

I had a glass of champagne yesterday. I'll try a whole bottle later today. Maybe that will help.  ;)

hehe... the moment we celebrate it will drop LOL, reminds me of my childhood when i was going to a hockey match in my home town they lost and when i stayed home they won, of course a subjective impression but that's the way i feel quite often hence i prefer not to celebrate before the sun has set.

generally speaking, the less volume we have, the smaller the gap will be, of course with seasonal and year to year variations.

we certainly agree that with a volume of 500 we never can get a gap of 700, just to make sure that there is no misunderstanding as to what i mean.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 12, 2017, 07:03:04 PM »
The season just started and we declare it over? No patience here...

We are down to 6th lowest on IJIS now

If no record set this year I think its just a blip year

Once the next El nino takes shape it will rip the rest of the Arctic to bits

Who said I declare it over. By no means

Im just surmising that if its a slow one next year and the years after the downward trend will continue apace

It could be a record breaker for all i know

im still stickin with 3.7m minimum based on ....nothing but to give me interest in the final minimum and see how close i got

just remember the very late and very high max in 2012 and what came thereafter. it's totally irrelevant what happens during a week or two, what counts are things like weather, starting point and other key factors that make up for the end-result. the amount of ice currently totals way less than in any of those years that were lower at the same day of the year, hence if we have only 60% ice left and loose 80% of what we lost then, we still end up with less ice at the end.

anyways, it's has to be remembered that with less ice there is less ice to lose. i'm sure that once we are heading towards zero, there will be people mentioning that in the year 19xx we lost 3 times more ice in a given period LOL, even though that would mean a negative number mathematically once that moment has come.

it's always bad and very common unfortunately to look at things detached from the systemic whole. this is about melting season and neither weekly, daily nor extent and energy wise it's the total amount of ice that counts and that is way below anything before (volume) no matter what other indicators are showing at one given moment. right now we have a glass full of crush ice which does not mean that we have more ice to melt than if we had 3 solid ice-cubes in the very same cup, on the opposite.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 12, 2017, 06:48:06 PM »
With Trump going full Nixon this week, and especially Friday during an AM tweetstorm whilst on the commode, it is difficult (but not impossible) to believe that even the most traitorous Republican, Mitch McConnell, will continue to enable Trump by blocking action WRT investigations or appointment of a special prosecutor.  Republicans would be wise to consider invoking 25th Amendment procedures to avoid what appears to be an inevitable progression towards impeachment processes.  What's especially problematic is that Trump fancies himself exempt from the law and above any sembalance of norms and traditions, along with being an increasingly isolated and cornered rat.  Not a good combination at all.

+1 it's even showing in his face, that man cornered himself already and all that non-sense is sheer desperation paired with all the other attributes that don't have to be repeated. the only thing that really bothers and will not go aways once he has been expelled, is the huge amount of people in that country who elected bushes and him, learning curve apparently zero and that is troubling considering the tasks at hand and the military power of that country.

on the other hand it's not just that, people of this world sink more and more into quicksand because of them being ill motivated for what they do and having lost the skill to be happy with what is there and instead are jumping from one meaningless distraction to the next.

after all this is what makes democracy a dangerous thing, i mean a bad king can/could be replaced by a better king, died or was killed, while nowadays the public (demo) is ruling (cracy) and the majority is definitely thinking and behaving sub-par.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 12, 2017, 03:50:36 PM »
Wipneus is tracking both "NSIDC area" and AMSR2 area. I'm away from my bookmarks right now.
AFAIK Wipneus is just one person (one amazing person, but still one). Please note how i mentioned "research body" in my request for public area data. This is no disrespect to Wipneus and his very impressive works, it's just me wishing for something truly Cryosphere-Today scale.

May be i ask for too much. Sorry.

since the data he's using are from such "bodies" i can't say where one could have a problem with the graphic results based on such data from a respected person who is know for delivering 99.9% accurate graphs and then immediately admits any minor error. i don't think you ask too much but i think we got already what you're asking for and then, often "bodies" are less efficient and more biased ( money sources and carrier thinking comes into play ) than a person who uses neutral data and has never shown any sign of "profiling neurosis" LOL

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 11, 2017, 04:54:13 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

i mentioned it already and gladly repeat: if the ice were compact as it was before 2015 it would take much less space (extent)

like others i strongly believe, even though extent has and impact on many feedbacks like albedo and temp exchange etc, it will more and more be a poor instrument to measure the amount and state of the ice. i'd go that far to say that any mention of extent to describe what's happening is useless to such a high degree that it's not worth to mention, an inefficient instrument that is causing more and more fruitless discussions and is drawing more and more a false (mislieading) picture of events.

it's just leading nowhere, the extent is 5th lowest and the state and amount (volume) of the ice is 1st lowest/1st shittiest ever.

any information that will draw a picture that is contradictory to the reality of what's going on is misleading IMO
If I want to buy a house, the first I think is "how many square meters". It does not say much, but automatically helps me to discard 70% of the too small or too big houses.
It is very useful. It is very informative. Does it give me the full picture of the house? By no means.
Good. The extent of Arctic ice is much more useful, more informative about Arctic ice. AND IT'S VERY RELEVANT on its evolution, NOT SHITTY, because you will observe solar radiation and that this solar radiation is absorbed and not reflected back to space. Larger extent, now that there is no surface melting, simply means that less solar radiation is being absorbed by our planet Earth, and I welcome that it is larger than same date 2016.

a) i mentioned that with albedo and stuff in the same context in another thread, hence agree to that but cannot write the same excerpt each time in full in various threads

b) we're not entirely talking the same thing, i was only referring as to measuring the amount and the state of the ice while there is more to it, you're right

c) reason why a posted at all is that too many read too much from extent data IMO too much fuss about daily ups and downs while the above remains true

in short, the word shitty is inappropriate, lost my horses for a sec, while the key point i wanted to make, perhaps not perfectly put, remains. you'll see that withing the next 2-5 years extent will loose it's rank as the main indicator of sea-ice development to volume and what i said will become common sense, at least roughly.

thanks for replying, even thoug, as yo can see in my other post, i was aware, it's worth to mention because i neglect on that in this thread.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 11, 2017, 01:52:53 PM »
extent doesn't tell us much considering the farctured ice conditions and the mobility that was mentioned above with the effect that we in parts find MYI in places where last year for example FYI was melting out upon arrival. there will be a very sudden drop later on but anyhow, i strongly believe that we should shift focus away from extent to volume and in parts area at this time of the melting season. we're all too much used to things and how to do/use them while things have changed dramatically and ancient tools and procedures are not only becoming useless but at times start to be misleading.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: May 11, 2017, 01:47:59 PM »
absolutely and in reality it's even a bit more and longer than the low resolution illustrations show, like i.e. in ilulissat ice-fjord which is not THAT far south at all LOL

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 11, 2017, 01:37:56 PM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

i mentioned it already and gladly repeat: if the ice were compact as it was before 2015 it would take much less space (extent)

like others i strongly believe, even though extent has and impact on many feedbacks like albedo and temp exchange etc, it will more and more be a poor instrument to measure the amount and state of the ice. i'd go that far to say that any mention of extent to describe what's happening is useless to such a high degree that it's not worth to mention, an inefficient instrument that is causing more and more fruitless discussions and is drawing more and more a false (mislieading) picture of events.

it's just leading nowhere, the extent is 5th lowest and the state and amount (volume) of the ice is 1st lowest/1st shittiest ever.

any information that will draw a picture that is contradictory to the reality of what's going on is misleading IMO

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 10, 2017, 09:09:28 PM »
(Let's try that again)

This is new...

Lincoln Sea. Yesterday an unbroken sheet. Today, cracked-up all the way down to Nares. Don't think We've ever seen it do that before, least of all in early May.

yesterday's image was either inaccurate and/or photoshopped. howerer cracks are around for quite some time and they were certainly not gone on leave for a day ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 06, 2017, 10:47:39 PM »
Soon ice will be back to normal....


Unfortunately not.

yep, as we know mobile and fractured ice is using more space, exactly like crush ice uses more space than solid ice or even ice cubes if the don't lay extremely awkward. the effect on melting rate iater this spring will be horrendous IMO, we all remember the "P.." word and it will be even worse this time, at least provide there will be no extremely cool weather conditions.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 04, 2017, 03:35:23 PM »

I generally concur, just one thing about CAA: me thinks, with conditions like this, transport outta CAA is likely to play much bigger role than it ever did. Nothing fancy backing this up, just general considerations about stronger winds being likely, as well as more open water places for the ice to go around CAA.


Better understanding of the system - must include understanding of upstream emissions, for example note here how black and red prevails. Same things in black and light-blue will prevail into the future globally. And then you may be interested to read this paper, and would you please pay special attention to 3rd and 4th bars in figure 5, this is reality of the matter for now and decades to come, given the above. See?

And also, can we wrap this up at this exact point, because this goes way off-topic, please? At least, i definitely will go no further.

P.S. I hesitated to post this one, too; but after a while, inner scientist defeated inner model citizen, and i went for it...

absolutely, well said and specifically yes to more mobile ice hence impact is greater, no doubt about that, while it was not where i was headed with my sub-par english (at least when compared to my german skills LOL), sorry for any misunderstanding that it might have caused, in short: +1

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 03, 2017, 10:41:56 PM »
things change from season to season mostly based on wind and weather patterns in general. the information which part of the alps got more or less snow which year is nice to know but has no value as to climate development.

each year we have to read through various this year but last year and that year statements while in my opinion this is chatting, nothing wrong about it but does not provide any useful input when it comes to a better understanding of the system and eventually finding a few things we can do that not only work but are realistic.

just to avoid any misunderstanding, of course it would help if everyone would stop heating in winter and stop driving cars with ICEs but it's not yet a realistic scenario, hence a waste of words and energy, while preparing for a switch to EVs is feasible and will ultimately lead to achieve that goal through the backdoor.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 03, 2017, 10:36:09 PM »
once things become obvious to the most stupid and ignorant it's too late in most cases.

just never buy stock once it's in the news, LOL just one example.

however, considering how much we're all, and some of us more, talking against walls it's totally frustrating and sounds like a bad joke hearing one after another chiming in now that nothing can be reverted anymore.

howerver that's not a reason to give up or stop our efforts, on the opposite, but then it's damage control now, not solutions and no repairs/reversal seems realistic.

Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: May 03, 2017, 10:29:41 PM »
Is there a vegan of long date here ? Any comments ? Don't be afraid, we won't bite... we are respectful carnivores...

carnivores..... as you say are most of the time respectful and tolerant towards veg... with whichever ending, the other way around is the much greater issue as most of the time is the case with any minority that has a tendency to acquire a "religion like" attitude.

my mother is vagan and lives next door and my dad and me are extreme "carnivores..." even though on the path of reducing due to the way meat is produced nowadays and the environmental impact. no issues so far but even inside family, if there is ever any tension with newcomers and outsiders it's coming from mom and not them who just ask and try to learn and understand, and with tension i don't mean open hostility but exactly that, tension which one can feel but most of the time is held in check since we're all educated people and way beyond mid of life LOL

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 02, 2017, 12:15:59 AM »

you really get the hang  of things to a very high degree, it's a pleasure and very educating and/or affirmative to read your various posts, especially in this thread were provoking statements are made quite frequently even though i can feel that peoples pain. once more proper coms are key, sheer anger is blinding and not useful when it comes to solution oriented poindering / thinking.

in short +1 globally :-) ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Fast Transition
« on: April 29, 2017, 11:16:42 PM »
Will a "Blue Ocean" event in September trigger positive feedbacks that will rapidly (e.g. a decade or so) lead to a seasonally ice free Arctic with blue ocean being the predominant state throughout the summer months?

There is an assumption here that positive feedbacks are necessary to acheive this.  As the following graph shows, based on current trends, an ice free summer should become 'normal' within just a few years of an ice free September.

I expect the trigger for rapid collapse will be an ice free North Pole area,  say above 87degN. This will lead to slower ice formation after the summer peak and an alteration to the movement of the Beaufort Gyre. Even more MYI will be able to move into the Atlantic and disappear.  I expect Ice-Free summers to be a regular feature within a decade.

a) i share your opinion that this will be the case very soon as compared to some predictions (models)

b) BUT the graph shows nothing about the future, it shows the past and while the trends are clear, we have no clue which factors could either slow down or "beware" accelerate the process. it's just an assumption or "educated" guess at best. but again i share your point of view as to what lays ahead.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: April 29, 2017, 11:13:43 PM »

12,800,339 km2(April 27, 2017)down 9,936 km2 and 2nd lowest measured for the date.

In know we should take a 5 day average, which I haven't done, but the daily SIE reported by NSIDC his risen (or dropped depending on your point of view) to 4th lowest, being higher than 2016, 2015 and 2006.

really wondering where you get your stuff each time you post, please at least provide a link or an image because i've not been able to find a raise for a 5 days average or daily values, ready to stand corrected but need proof and then if the raise yo're talking about is a one day event and considering  the higher mobility of fractured and thinner ice, that extent is close to meaningless.

last but not least i wonder where that urge comes from to post things that sound opposite to the obvious direction of developement, even though that key values like volume (only relevant IMO) are down by a huge margin compared to 20th century numbers and as well down compared to last 15 years average and WAY down i have to point out.

i gladly admit that i could not resist to reply even though one probably should not, but that's how i am LOL

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 29, 2017, 11:06:39 PM »
I've copied 5 of the extent graphs from the Regional Graphs page: three have lots of ice and two have record(?) low ice.
The Barentsz Sea (Dutch spelling, and the guy was Dutch) is 'quite full' of ice - I don't have an opinion why.  The Greenland Sea is also 'quite full' - I think ice export from the Arctic Ocean is high (despite so much melting around Svalbard in the mid- and late winter).  Baffin / Newfoundland Bay is 'quite full' too - I think the lack of any sustained ice arch within Nares Strait has allowed much (thin) export of ice (ice that grows within the Strait over a 2 to 8 week period as it drifts southwards), and thin ice counts as extent. 

I note both the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk have unseasonably low amounts of ice - I don't have an opinion why.

What opinions do other's have concerning these 5 regions?

(And yes, much of the ice is thinner than ever before at this time of year.)

thanks for the effort but beside that, there will always be regions with more and others with less ice than usual, reason is simple, once winds and/or currents pile up the ice on one side and empty the other side while during the next season and/or time span things turn around and depending on prevailing winds and currents the ice will pile up in another place.

this is, and no matter how much headwind i get, i think that these regional stuff is not useful, same applies to temps one season sibiria is colder and alaska is warmer and the other year or period of time it's vice versa and so on. nice to watch, interesting to know but has no value as to global warming and the overall development of arctic sea-ice IMO.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: April 28, 2017, 02:06:29 AM »
probably it makes little sense to break through obvious bias but then one thing and think about it:

russia tried to become a part of the so called international community for decades after the downfall of the USSR and they were lied to, cheated and ridiculed, treated as minors and as the big losers.

after many years of being offended over and over again the guy "putin" got tired of it and remembered that they had all the ingredients to be a world power that cannot be beaten without
being suicidal, same applies to china and the U.S. hence russia stood up and who knows only the tiniest bit about russia knows that jelzin's soft hand got the country ever deeper into chaos and that that huge and wild country with too many alcoholics and cruel people need a hard hand to function, as, btw does china with it's 1.2 billion people. things are not black and white and not as easy as they seem and the western world is bankrupt exactly as the USSR was, we just lie and cheat ourselves through as long as we can and exploit africa and the rest of the world to keep the level and the show running into the abyss.

i'm swiss, not russian, just to make that clear and in my home country russiaphobia is widely spread indeed, mostly based on ignorance and fear.

the greates destabilisators in this world were once the colonial powers and now the U.S. and its vassal states ( UK, Australia and the likes ) i call them a..leekers but not that it matters what i think LOL. things will go their way and only chaos will lead to a new, perhaps better, perhaps worse aera.

The rest / Re: Real Stupid Blog-Posts
« on: April 28, 2017, 12:58:00 AM »
This is a very, very dumb video from the denialist-fringe:

Let's see what he says after the next record low.. :o

all that BS is is based exactly on the kind of improper communication i tried to warn from in this forum but always bit on granite and was muted.

of course that would not change my conviction that we should be very careful about our output because it will feed the deniers and further damage the anyways minor possibilities to take proper measures.

also i want to use the opportunity that GW is too serious a matter to set prefer luke warm discussions over speaking "tacheles"

we should not judge contributions by how much we like the feed but only for the level of truth, the real value
as well as their effect on the whole.

ready for another bashing but slowly one should be aware how little i care as long as the motives behind are not proper.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 19, 2017, 09:06:32 PM »
That is just the 10% above the water!

true, while the base under water is most probably wider similar to tree roots, else it's getting ready to topple :-)

There is no excuse for being this far removed from reality.  Either they are completely incompetent, unaware, overconfident in their supposed knowledge, don't care or are a fifth column element working against the greater good intentionally.

Go hang out at WUWT - you make about as much sense.

I'm very sad for this forum.  I never thought it would degenerate to name-calling respected scientists. It's embarassing. 

I guess I'll just join A-Team and Chris Reynolds and stay away.

IMHO to give those who strongly disagree and IMO are even right the feeling that they destroy a forum is at least as bad as throwing in thoughts about unbelievable things for consideration.

and then to press on the tear glands is typical female behavior, first yell then cry.

however anything that is far from "how it currently looks like" may well be questioned no matter who stands behind the theory, which is how mankind came that far ( far not only equals good but still )

scientist themselves work after the "negative principle" lives from permanent doubts and questioning that hopefully will end up with proof one day before it's too late.

however to take a clear stance, i would bet almost anything that we shall be more or less ice free in summer way before 2060-ies, can't proof but is my personal opinion and a valid one as per my best knowledge. can't see why opposing people with a "name" should not be allowed or do you prefer your surgeon to use a hammer to knock you out for operation LOL. beside the fact that we all make mistakes and at times loose temper or oversight this should never be a lasting and general habit. those who could not deal with things that way are the ones you mentioned, hence no problem here if you join them and rant over there [pun intended]

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: April 16, 2017, 07:38:15 PM »
once again we can see in what kind of a mentally ill world we're living:

an asshole throws some bombs and in return gets more approval, not much more to add while of course this
sick behaviour corresponds with the fact that such a guy can become POTUS in the first place.

if the turks go with "Erdie's" wishes that would not come as a surprise at all while in case of the U.S. it
always surprises me, no matter what, i.e. GWB second term, still not getting it LOL

thanks @buddy for this thread that provides a lot of insight for us who're overseas and not that close to what's going on and why. ;)

... if we want to have a good understanding while monitoring the comeback of Arctic sea ice. ...
You are joking, right?
We are already committed to the complete and irreversible (on a human time scale) disappearance year round of Arctic sea ice.

That kind of makes me want to shut down the blog and forum, and build a big bunker. And so the narrative I tell myself (and hopefully others once I get back to blogging) is that what we need to fight for, is getting Arctic sea ice back after we lose it. Preferably prevent it from going ice-free all year round.

why would you intentionally attempt to assign a value of 'natural variability' to a dynamic system that is in the process of catastrophic collapse?  Is it because the collapse is not what you expected?

If it is all collapsing, there's not much sense in thinking about what the best way to do research is. Or post on a forum. And what I've said in reply to AndrewB.

neven in absoluter hochform ( neven in high performance mode LOL ) this thread made my day, keep going.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 07, 2017, 05:34:21 PM »
On the contrary, this makes me very unhappy.

It is bad enough that staying on-topic seems to be less and less respected by a very loud minority.

But being criticized for being on-topic but not being political correct in a pure sea ice thread is a step too far. Please discuss that somewhere else, I am not interested.

The subject here is "2017 sea ice area and extent data", how hard is it to stay with that?

I agree, and would like to add: F*** climate risk deniers and how they may twist words on some obscure Forum.

duly noted including the general opinion that it does not matter (ref to f... them) it's a valid possible point of view and hence i'll try to remember. didn't mean to make anyone unhappy ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 06, 2017, 10:28:12 PM »
Uhh-ohh! Looks like this is about to really open up now.
Svalbard on the right.
1st vs 6th

looks like a massive bridge-head directly pointing to the pole, considering recent mobility of the core ice that's boding not well indeed. thanks for the repeating great images, very useful stuff.

@Bill Fothergill
you're welcome, thx for the links, those should be prominently place somewhere on the ASIG page IMO, i wish my english would allow for such great articles. kudos, very exiting content.

EDIT: i assume you allow that i posted those on my facebook profile, else let me know

Policy and solutions / Re: Better Tomorrows
« on: April 06, 2017, 05:19:39 PM »
reading all the leftist unrealistic comments a few earlier comments and reactions become even more understandable. neven made a few good comments as to where the problem lays and what the only
possible approach is, i.e. implementing caps of wealth, while they have to be at a level that keeps
people motivated, else the outcome of no way to prosper has been seen while travelling through all
the warsaw packt countries before the turn-around and even now it's visible.

people need a way to prosper and develop but no-one needs billions to achieve that. another key is to make leaders and top-managers responsible for their doings instead of letting them go with golden parachutes.

unions have vastly proven to have their own agenda and union leaders have proven to be no less power-seeking
and corrupted by money, while too  much union power has mostly caused more widely spread poverty.

last but not least exploitation of third world country, meaning commodities, working power and selling oversupply to them at prices below their self-generating costs and much more has to be banned and prosecuted. again those who represent the powers who do that excessively have to be held responsible.

I hope this does not look like a copy, will come back to edit should i find a similar comment later on haha....

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: April 06, 2017, 05:06:55 PM »
that had to be expected after my last one, very informative but it's ok, can live with it :-)

just have a look at the time stamp and you'll easily see that it was much later that i was seeing that post, without knowing the later posts, hence when i wrote mine i was not aware of how old the post i replied to was and did not know that there were many replies referring to the moon. it was well meant and by no means silly, can happen, it's called ninja-post for experience multiple forum participants, a totally normal thing to happen.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: April 05, 2017, 10:53:43 PM »
An intriguing artifact at the top of this webcam image in the dead of night:

that's the moon [just kidding of course]

or, applying knowledge and understanding courtesy of "Stellarium"
the view at 74.25N 103W at 6:30UTC 4. 4. 2017

it was cowerdice LOL and after 16 hours of work i just didn't have to energy to verify, thanks for the link and i hope the "part-quote" was made with a smile and not an evil grin haha.....

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 05, 2017, 10:50:25 PM »
This basin push towards a max can only be characterized as encouraging, not in the long term but for the approaching melt season. What it is telling us is that the peripheral seas are the main contributors to the low numbers and the variability in these seas is typical of today's Arctic.

too much cherry picking IMO, this kind of information is fodder for deniers to interpret it their way. no offense meant, after all it's a simple statement of facts as we know them while i'm not entirely sure whether area and extent still hold too much value as information to describe the state of the ice. the more i read and look at graphs and plots based on old models, based on how it once was, the more i get the feeling that something is not right, i just hope that we won't get too much of a negative surprise if what we got by now wouldn't be bad enough already.

thanks for all the contributions from both of you but still i felt that i have to make that statement, hope it's well taken, because the other side (deniers) are very strategical at times and perhaps we as well need to be a bit smartly using the available input (staying with the borders of truth and/or best knowledge of course)

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