It tells me that permission is required to view the graphs updated for 2017.
Ah sorry I forgot to make the images public. It should be fixed now.
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Spectacular imagery! BTW SNAP-toolbox can be used to track glacier-speed but I think the parameters take some experimenting.
September sea-ice extent predicted by June reflected solar radiation
For some of the more "scientifically inclined"....I have a question:
What is PRECISELY meant by "top of the atmosphere reflected solar radiation (RSR)?"
A) Amount of solar radiation MEASURED AT the "top of the atmosphere"?
B) Amount of solar radiation FROM the top of the atmosphere?
A non-scientific inquiring mind would like to know....
I am sure the ppm of CO2 are in volume. The local concentration of CO2 dictates its absorbance and emissivity of IR. You cannot do any calculations or modeling based on the integral amount above your head. And it would vary based on the local pressure.
Seems fast. Can we get a speed calculated from these images?That's A-teams speciality, but i can give you a rough estimate from the front position.
Very enlightening animation. ZI never sleeps, although calving seems to be on hold (for the moment).
I know there is no consensus on this, but I could swear the animation shows how the immobile sea ice in the enclosed bay slows down the glacier somewhat (and perhaps stabilizes the front a little bit as well). The debris and icebergs can be seen to be pushed before the advancing glacier, and over time the movement propagates further into the bay.
I am one of them, the sea ice , icebergs, and debris etc. in the bay is just piece of cake, considering the forces coming from behind the glacier!
There must be other reasons for the break in calvings at Zachariae?
Wipneus & Co: do you have any idea about the "big block" that's is floating freely in the Ross Sea (Univ. of Bremens map) and has done so for more than a month now.
These folks have some historic data on this looking at daily melt but nothing for last year and this.
The Cumulative Melting Surface (CMS) for the different regions have been corrected from changes in acquisition hours due to satellite replacements with the method developed by Picard and Fily, 2006... To our opinion, the correction efficiently reduces errors for some regions (Peninsula, DML, Amery, Wilkes, MBL), but is less efficient or may add new errors for other regions (Filchner, Ross). In the latter regions, we recommend to use both the corrected and uncorrected CMS.
Regarding plumes in the water.
I think a mechanism related to wind-blown snow coming off the shelf edge is more likely. Remember, Coriolis force is reversed in the Southern Hemisphere. The rapid disappearance of the sea ice in the top of the image also points to strong winds blowing off-shore.
I agree the plumes look wind-borne. They move far faster than the floes. In the very first image of these posted here, you can see that there's clearing of the mist on the leeward side of the floes. I'd favor fog. Cold air coming off the ice shelf, flowing over slightly warmer ocean.
How do we know it's on the water?
You may wish to take a look at:
Perhaps we should take this conversation over to the Developer's Corner?
Looking at the Amery ice sheet again.. I noticed these persistent plumes.
Could these be melt water, fresh water, flowing along under the ice shelf and then coming to the open ocean? The ocean at the edge of the ice shelf is probably cold enough to freeze some of the fresh water, hence the plume.
http://go.nasa.gov/2kamy2m is the EODIS link.
It fits in with the model of eroding the ice sheet that has been proposed: that fresh melt water flows along under the sheet and cause warm salty water to be drawn under the sheet by convection.
All that blue has to go somewhere, right?
/Those figures from Wipneus are intriguing. If extent falls another 10% it will be a new satellite-era low and most contributors seem to expect that will happen. Yet apply a 10% fall to the current area figure and this year would only be in around 15th spot. Another oddity is the 1993 area which is hugely lower than any other year. Any suggestions as to what is/has been going on?
your image 2 shows wind shadow and scour. The wind shadow effect occurs where air blowing over an obstruction induces turbulence to leeward which picks up the snow and carries it away leaving the blue ice surface showing.
The same effect occurs where the wind blows around an obstruction and becomes turbulent.
Generally speaking, in satellite images, pale blue is water, dark blue is ice.
This paper on the impact of an ice free Arctic in September got mentioned in the Scribbler comments section. It assumes a worst case of 2040 as the date for an ice-free September, with no deterioration after that, which leads to a 50% cut in the global carbon budget for a 2 degree temperature rise (including overshoot and negative emissions).
I am not a climate scientist, but their assumptions of (i) 2040 as the earliest possible date for an ice-free September; (ii) no worsening due to feedback - e.g. August becoming ice free; and (iii) the heat imbalance assumptions seem to be a tad conservative. If I understand the paper correctly, less conservative assumptions could more than wipe out the carbon budget. Comments from more qualified individuals would be welcome.
I do have training as an economist, and their assumptions of the ability to ramp up a fossil fuel replacement infrastructure with no bottlenecks or delays as the timeframe shrinks and scale increases means that they very significantly underestimate the costs involved. Such "frictionless" models are the standard unfortunately for the Integrated Climate Models.
How come all the models and papers talk about a shutdown in the thermohaline circulation when the data we are watching this winter is the North Atlantic Drift flowing into the Arctic Ocean?
I guess I just know the right question to ask Google.
The PVE calculator I used disagrees with you. ...
4KWH/M2/Day about March 12th. That's my "dinner napkin" estimate for the energy level after subtracting for albedo at which incoming insolation will be high enough to balance outgoing radiative losses.
But I was asking specifically about your response to this comment in the SIPN report :Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.
...The model doesn't calculate if the energy is used for melting more ice or if it increases water temperature which delays refreezing and limits ice thickening in winter
Tealight, your work received special attention in the SIPN post-season report :
With two paragraphs, some graphics, and some pretty intelligent responses. Stuff like this :Because the sea ice edge is generally moving northward during the spring and early summer, the edge is moving away from the regions where anomalies in the cumulative AWP are building. However, when the sea ice edge expands southward again in the fall, it can re-encounter the regions of significant cumulative AWP. Thus, there can be a connection between patterns of spring and fall sea ice concentration anomalies that is nearly independent of mid summer conditions.
Looking forward to your reply on that assessment, and keep up the great work you are doing !
Action Team Members:
Gisele Arruda; Oxford Brookes University.
Ed Blockley; Polar Climate Group, Met Office Hadley Centre.
Frank Kauker; Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research.
Alek Petty; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and University of Maryland.
François Massonnet; Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Brussels and Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3, Barcelona, Spain).
Nico Sun; CryosphereComputing.
Are the NSIDC links moved are just experiencing tech problems?
They have moved , with some other changes as well:
On 31 Jan the ftp will be closed and all that data can only be accessed from the protected (user+password, free registration) https connection. Start here and find the rest:
These folks have some historic data on this looking at daily melt but nothing for last year and this.
Is the new crack visible on satellite images? I had a quick look but don't know the best resources to use.
@Tealight You probably were right about that being old tongue ice. I think it may have been there a long time and had old hard frozen snow on it, perhaps giving it the visual difference; maybe or maybe not.
Whatever the case, I think it's days are numbered now.
Also, thanks for spotting it when you did, as it has been interesting to watch.
The graph is inspired by ktonine who posted graphs with thickness estimates before me. Let me know if you want some changes or improvements.
Nice work. Think I would prefer version with start as 1 Sept rather than starting on 1 Jan, and so maybe have the anomalies graph start at 1 Sept?
It might be a bad idea to clutter it up too much. Showing range from following what happened in previous years with lowest and highest FDD from last data to end of season might be an interesting extra. Perhaps if you are able to show numeric values for this (and for season to date and previous lowest on record for the date) rather than extra lines on chart which would/could clutter it up. (Or maybe if you cannot display data, and the graph is 274 days wide then maybe a line from the low range value on day 276 to the high range value on day 277 could indicate that range.
Hope you can follow what I am suggesting from that.
Jesus, what is this? Rubik's Cube? Am I trying to find the stone in the wall to open the pyramid crypt?
Thanks, Tealight, I hope this solves the mobile issue once and for all.
It seems that when I do the Edit Site Layout thing and put it to 1900px, it doesn't get saved. Hmmmm....
As for the mobile stuff (I don't have one, so I can't check).I specified the site width on my page with a custom width of 1900px. With this setting all looks great on mobiles. With the default option the right side is cut off like on ASIG.
I fiddled around with the HTML several times, when I would receive complaints, trying to get a scroll bar at the bottom, etc, but to no avail. I will have another look, but if someone has a tip that is not too complex, I'd be grateful.
And: it would be nice if we can watch the ASIG properly from an iphone - it used to work, then got broken at some time.
another of those "hot spots" (relative)
Funny thing I noticed on Earth NS, the total precipitable water seemed to be higher over the Bering Strait than anywhere else in the Arctic, and at all altitudes.