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Messages - Tigertown

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: Today at 05:21:34 PM »
@Thomas Barlow
Re: tipping point

We saw what the open water late in the melt season last year caused to happen over the course of the freezing season, along with other factors, of course. If we get just a little more open water this year, for just a little more time, this will cause more winter troubles. If you think about it for a minute, water makes for a really good battery, simple but good. It stores heat energy very well. The end result; next melt season the ice will be  even less thick and durable, and melt even sooner. That is when battery really gets charged.  Summer 2018.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 06:21:07 PM »
I don't think this is about moralist qualms once one grasps the possible consequences of a blue ocean event.
That would make a good thread:  What Can Blue Do For You? (No link yet, just in conceptual stage)

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 04:33:07 PM »

UPDATE for NSIDC SIE
x 106 km2

2017,    06,  18,     10.537
2017,    06,  19,     10.453
2017,    06,  20,     10.383
2017,    06,  21,     10.293
2017,    06,  22,     10.234
2017,    06,  23,     10.124
2017,    06,  24,     10.034
2017,    06,  25,      9.941

4
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: June 26, 2017, 04:28:25 PM »
But if winter 17-18 replicates last winter and the ice-cap enters winter in an already enfeebled state....
Too much open water late in the season is one thing that will cause another rough winter for the Arctic, along with the oceans' warmth all over.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 10:32:48 AM »
I copied this from www.polarview.aq/arctic and it is the same chart from Uni-Bremen but with a white background, which seems to make the colors pop more. Maybe it's just me.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 10:03:04 AM »
I'm confused why you think this is a slow melting season when Wip's numbers show that the CAB is at a record minimum area for this date, and I think we are around third lowest for extent on NSIDC. Surely a slow melting season would have us at above average extent?

Because 2017 had a headstart on both SIE and volume, which is no longer there. May extent loss was an unimpressive 12th smallest, June has been a little quicker, relative to other years, but still far behind 2012. The snow cover was slow to melt, melt ponds came late and there hasn't been much melt momentum - until now - just a steady chiping away of ice which was record thin and weak to begin with. 2017 would end nowhere close to 2012 minimum if this trend contiued another month. Fortunately, it wont.
I think that a pretty good amount of ice was getting melted all along, but this was disguised by excessive dispersion.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 06:40:14 AM »
6-25-17 blended ascending and descending. The warm land air has been blowing in at the surface in the peripheral areas, and along with other considerations, has damaged and weakened the sea ice there. It can now be finished off by a number of ways, including insolation. Warm rain and air has likely left surfaces that have lower albedo, including some areas with new melt ponds and completely open water.

8
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: June 26, 2017, 04:51:29 AM »
From the Latest PIOMAS Update thread;
thickness vs area curves is that this year the very thick ice is almost gone, the thick ice that will make it through the summer will be very thin, and there's lots of thin ice that will melt out.
Right. It would seem a given volume spread out over a large extent -- eg Oren's Inner Basin chart for the end of the month -- favors heat access modes and so collective top and bottom melt. Wind over long fetches then mixes warm water from depth and disperses weak ice over it.

Preconditioning from the extraordinary conditions last fall is easy to forget with the freeze forum split off but certain to manifest itself. Throw in unfavorable (or even unremarkable) weather and we will have quite a few weeks of extensive open water in late season exposing vulnerable residual ice to further risk and putting the dampers on the fall 2017 refreeze. There's no turning back.
It seems the natural thing to ask next is:
What will it be like going into the 2018 melt season without any multi-year thick ice? If there is any at all it will be scarce. What is left from this year will be meager two-year ice by that point.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 25, 2017, 09:58:15 PM »
@ A-Team
C=2012
F=2013
A=2014
E=2015
B=2016
D=2017

Yes, 2017 does stand out just a little.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 25, 2017, 09:20:42 AM »
Checking water temps. in the corner of the Beaufort that has been open for a while now. These are readings just below the surface(-0.5 m ) and down. Also, included is a time chart showing how in the last few days, the water has really began to heat up.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 25, 2017, 06:16:11 AM »
Wave activy for this approximate date from 2015 to present.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 25, 2017, 05:15:42 AM »
No JAXA. Looking at this gif to get an idea of what is going on. 21st-24th
CLICK IMAGE   Zoom

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 24, 2017, 06:13:42 PM »
UPDATE for NSIDC SIE
x 106 km2

2017,    06,  17,     10.605
2017,    06,  18,     10.537
2017,    06,  19,     10.453
2017,    06,  20,     10.383
2017,    06,  21,     10.293
2017,    06,  22,     10.234
2017,    06,  23,     10.124

14
The forum / Re: What is Off Topic and What is Not?
« on: June 24, 2017, 05:40:10 PM »
It is discouraging sometimes, because you know that when you move to another thread, the momentum of the discussion dies. The same people that are all over the topic when it is off topic will not follow it to another thread. Sounds odd, I know, but true.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 24, 2017, 08:58:10 AM »
Currently happening. Warm, moist air invading from Siberia. Notice where the cloud concentration is (top pic) compared to the 850 mb air which comes in at about 10.5oC before mixing and remains at about 3o to the very tip. The air is warm from this altitude of about 1500 meters and down to the surface. Assuming it is raining for the most part, I will let someone else do the math on the heat energy transfer.

Tomorrow, the whole situation scoots over closer to the Alaska/Canada side and covers what gets missed today.

16
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: June 24, 2017, 06:12:24 AM »
China landslide leaves 100 missing in Sichuan

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-40390642


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 24, 2017, 03:13:41 AM »
The areas of wave activity in the Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, and Laptev seas are all starting to link together now.

18
The forum / Re: What is Off Topic and What is Not?
« on: June 23, 2017, 11:27:43 PM »
I think it might be good to archive this discussion here for future reference.


Guys, this thread is for a discussion exclusively about the current melting season, not topics such as solar insolation. If you have any further comments on that matter, please take them elsewhere. Thanks!

probably i gonna bang my head again but i disagree as far as how is it possible to seriously discuss melting season without from time to time talking about insolation since it's a main factor around solstice ?

<snip; it's fine to talk about insolation taking place right now, or about fog or rain, or whatever, but I'd prefer not to see endless theoretical back-and-forths about enthalpy and how much energy it takes to melt 1 kg of ice, etc, etc; N.>






19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 23, 2017, 09:05:36 AM »
Throughout the day, look for massive quantities of warm air to pour into the Arctic from the Pacific side. It will pass through the Bering Strait, and over Alaska and Siberia. It is a deep mass of moist warm air, not just a surface breeze. A similar situation in other areas has thus far broken loose fast ice and diminished other sea ice. Although the exact patterns may change, the overall influx will continue into the foreseeable future.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 22, 2017, 11:23:05 PM »
New wave activity today between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.
Pic from the 20th as it was the clearest from a recent day. Not exact coordinates, but the general area.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 22, 2017, 08:39:23 AM »
ECMWF 00z op run: D4 bomb cyclone at 963 hpa. By D3 the pressure is forecasted to be 974 hpa. What do we think about that?
For the most part, the GFS seems to agree on the day three pressure, at least.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 22, 2017, 07:18:20 AM »
It looks as if within a couple weeks, one could leave the Amundsen Gulf in a boat and go around the perimeter of the Arctic, ending up in the Kara Sea. Any volunteers?



Edit: Image became available a couple hours after this post. ESS

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 22, 2017, 03:34:22 AM »
Warm surface air continues to work on the Beaufort and CAA

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: June 21, 2017, 09:15:19 PM »
When I look at Nullschool's depiction of the developing CAB cyclone, there's a large volume of precipitation in the forecast. In the areas where it is predicted the surface temp shows up as somewhere between -0.3 and +0.5 degrees. However, there's also a "1000 MB temp" graphic available - and for this system, at least, it consistently shows a core temp for the cyclone several degrees higher than the surface temp.

I've been interpreting the above as implying that the precip will mostly be falling as rain onto wet ice/snow... (and from what little I can tell of the actual effect on the surface this seems quite plausible)

But it just now occurred to me that the forecast SLP in the eye of the cyclone is only 970MB! So my stupid question of the day is...

 - What does the 1000MB temp mean when the SLP is less than 1000MB?
That is a really good question. A 3-D model of such a cyclone would probably help, if someone knows where to find it. Other than that, maybe they are referring to the altitude that 1000 mb would normally be found without a cyclone, that is around 111 meters, though rounded off on their about page. Speaking of, Earth NS has this page https://earth.nullschool.net/about.html which seems to indicate that they are simply using the term as an altitude, but there is an email address on the page for inquiries also.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 21, 2017, 12:20:18 PM »
Compared to last year, the state of the distribution of sea ice(for June 20 of 2017 and 2016 i put on animated GIF below) is completely different in my eyes. But can you experienced people explain what distribution favours more the ice melt? This year or last year and why? In order we beginner's on all these to learn.
The distribution can change very easily, because of how busted up the ice is. It is not very thick, either. I would not count it to fare well, but rather just hope some up of it is left at the end.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: June 21, 2017, 06:47:33 AM »
Is this mud?  Is it from a stream or melting permafrost or what?
Second image zoomed out for reference

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 21, 2017, 05:21:33 AM »
@Archimid
The SST's just offshore of the Mackenzie Delta are over 3oC and the surface air is over 5oC. You can see the muddy river water making it's way out to the sea ice. Both the air and water temps. are probably diminished by that point, but evidently carry enough heat energy to do some damage, with the help of uncle insolation.

P.S. I seem to remember reading that it doesn't take running river water long to warm after the land around it begins to do so, which it has in this area.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 21, 2017, 01:29:58 AM »
Thanks JayW. I didn't know that, and you are certainly right. The details seem more accurate.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 21, 2017, 01:16:32 AM »
I don't expect much of a SIE drop for JAXA, but looking at the big picture, things are going down quality wise. 17th-19th. The illusory thick ice is all but gone now.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 20, 2017, 10:25:11 PM »
NSIDC SIE     x 106 km2

2017,    06,  12,     11.069
2017,    06,  13,     10.959
2017,    06,  14,     10.869
2017,    06,  15,     10.788
2017,    06,  16,     10.677

That's about -98,000 km2 a day for the last 4 days reported.


UPDATE
2017,    06,  17,     10.605
2017,    06,  18,     10.537
2017,    06,  19,     10.453

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 20, 2017, 05:21:50 AM »
Partial quote of post from June 7th by Neven,
(my rule of thumb with Uni Bremen SIC maps is that pink/yellow/green colours need to persist at least for three days to be a sign of something like open water or melt ponding)
And that makes sense to me. Here is the 16th-19th
CLICK IMAGE Zoom if you like.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 19, 2017, 05:06:06 PM »
I've seen a lot of snow melt, some deep and some shallow.  I recall thin snow (sometimes on lake ice) develop something like melt ponds.  I also recall walking in the spring through foot-deep snow and coming to 'bogs' where the surface was grey and 'melt pondy' or even a temporary pond, and places where the surface was pristine white but my feet got soaked by the hidden water below.

I want to guess there is a lot of this hidden water below the surface sort of melt pond in the Arctic right now.  The white surface is certainly causing a great deal of reflectance, but real damage is happening below, none-the-less.
F. Tnioli, here is the comment. I got snapped at earlier for referring back to it myself, but it makes sense to me. A percentage of energy gets past the snow surface, and some ponding could have formed between snows.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 19, 2017, 05:54:23 AM »
JAXA SIE is now in a virtual tie with 2012 at 9.98 x 106 km2.
Hudson Bay is getting baked. As for the rest of these bright colors, will have to watch for a day or two.I expect the shoreline to open up soon between the ESS and the Laptev.CLICK IMAGE & Zoom

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 18, 2017, 08:01:18 PM »
seaicesailor,
Perhaps explainimg delay on melt ponds
Or, as someone pointed out a few days ago, the snow is disguising the melt ponds.

35
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: June 18, 2017, 11:34:36 AM »
@doogi         Good post.
This map might help us all understand where these places are.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 18, 2017, 08:08:04 AM »
NSIDC SIE     x 106 km2

2017,    06,  12,     11.069
2017,    06,  13,     10.959
2017,    06,  14,     10.869
2017,    06,  15,     10.788
2017,    06,  16,     10.677

That's about -98,000 km2 a day for the last 4 days reported.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 18, 2017, 06:23:46 AM »
We are getting very very close to going out ahead of 2012 now, as 2017 and 2012 are only about 20k apart. It could happen any day now.

38
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: June 18, 2017, 05:07:22 AM »
Forest fires kill 24 in central Portugal

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40316934


40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 18, 2017, 02:03:25 AM »
It is no wonder people keep citing "normal" extent numbers which  avoid being 1st lowest, and raising question marks. As this year is a prime candidate for breaking the record low, due to its PIOMAS lead and extremely poor winter, it raises expectations. When these expectations don't immediately come true, such doubtful comments are bound to crop up, and rightly so. Despite the PIOMAS lead (which I expect to have shrunk during the first half of June), this year could very well fall short of the record, and every day that a June cliff a-la 2012 isn't happening is a day where the chance of a record low has shrunk somewhat. I still expect a record low (especially for volume) but other opinions are totally valid and must be respected.
It is really just still too early to be dogmatic one way or the other. It is irritating when someone says that it is going to be a terrible or horribly bad melt season based on what has happened thus far, but just as much when someone else says it is such a slow melt season because it is barely dropping as fast as the worst year in history.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 17, 2017, 10:46:54 PM »
In the Laptev, it looks there is like more "fast" ice breaking loose. 15th/17th June
CLICK IMAGE for top image and bottom is for a point of reference

Edit: I checked and the ice in this area has been busted up for a while this year and then was lightly compacted back together, perhaps with a little glaze over to boot.


42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 17, 2017, 06:33:41 PM »
JAXA SIE is about 50k from 2012 numbers per date. NSIDC SIE has been running ahead of 2012. I know that does not mean that this will be a record year without doubt, but why does everyone keep using extent numbers, as if extent is dropping that slowly. It has not been that slow.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 17, 2017, 02:15:46 PM »
JAXA thickness map is completely out of whack at the moment and, therefore I do not recommend even bothering to glance at the volume chart. Unless you think that big glob of 5 meter thick ice is really there, and is really that mobile, because it is really moving around a lot and changing shape and morphing. To me, the ice in the area this glob is showing up in, shows signs of traction rather than compaction and ridging.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 17, 2017, 05:34:37 AM »
Between the warm surface winds of 2oC+ and the waves, the wear and tear is starting to really show on the sea ice within the passages of the CAA.
Today. CLICK IMAGE and zoom

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 16, 2017, 09:52:40 PM »
Looking at 850 mb warm air mixing in with Arctic air on the 20th (top) and 21st (bottom)

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 16, 2017, 09:35:21 PM »
The surface air over the CAA is getting warmer everyday, and by the 20th, some parts will reach 10oC. Between that and the wave activity, the ice is gradually breaking up.
Surface air for the 17th pictured Below

47
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: June 15, 2017, 09:14:59 PM »
From IJIS,
I expect there will eventually come a time where the number of climate change deniers will dwindle to the point where they're essentially irrelevant, like the flat earthers. I would love to think that we could reach that point earlier rather than later, maybe because some event like an ice-free North Pole some year soon would convince certain prominent voices among them to change their minds.

It's a thin hope, but I think it's behind why some part of me roots for a record low extent each year.

If it makes you feel better, this is actually the case literally everywhere besides the US. Parties that deny the reality of climate change have been continually eviscerated; UKIP was the latest example. Insofar as that reflects the views of the electorate, it does seem to indicate that most people in the world accept that climate change is happening and caused by humans.

Edit: Sorry, realized this is probably too off topic. Won't respond any further.
For one thing in the U.S. most people have enjoyed the changes rather than being harmed by them. I hear people all the time saying how much they like the warmer winter. People go around in shorts and t-shirts, happy and care free, when it should be snowing and cold.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 15, 2017, 04:35:11 PM »
Andreas T
There simply is no opening in this place  (about 165W 77N)
I am simply not trying to say there is.
There may have been one there for a moment in time when the sat passed over on the 12th or it could have been a glitch. Not There now.
The white-out that I was joking about was for the mark that I made. You just really entirely misconstrued what I posted.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 15, 2017, 08:12:28 AM »
@jdallen
I think the hole that opened up on the 12th was a temporary drop in concentration for the area of concern, caused by the mobility of the ice. I was not in this latest post trying to imply anything regarding it. It is circled in the first frame of the gif simply because I did not save the original for the 12th and wanted to do the gif for three days instead of two to show the progress of the other openings, such as the Kara, Laptev, Hudson, and some in the Beaufort. There have been so many comments to the effect that nothing is happening, and therefore, the need to demonstrate that the open water areas are subtlety getting bigger.

Now, I will see if I can find that bottle of white-out. ;)

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 15, 2017, 05:30:36 AM »
Updated this again as the openings are getting bigger each day. Worldview has been so cloudy.
CLICK IMAGE Zoom         12th-14th

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