One concern, which may or may not have a bearing on the matter:Latest GFS anomalies until next Wednesday (Climate Reanalyzer). Added 5-day forecast, which is still red all the way from Kara Sea to Beaufort.romett1, thanks for posting the GFS anomalies+forecast. It seems that every time I look at the table the forecast a few days out shows the anomaly lessening. But every time you post an update the anomaly stays high. Is it just my imagination? Or is the GFS underestimating the forecast anomaly?
I think they take the average from the whole Arctic circle, which can be a little deceptive. You might find a +20oC anomaly in an area over the ocean and sea ice, but it might be really cold in another area, which could even be over land. This drops the average, which then fails to represent how detrimental the anomaly is to the ice. A good fix is posting the map along with the table. Neven is always pointing out that there are many people dropping in on this thread, so it is especially good for them to comprehend this, as I am sure the regulars here don't need it to be explained. BTW, good job romett1.