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Messages - Tigertown

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 29, 2017, 06:19:21 PM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Wednesday (Climate Reanalyzer). Added 5-day forecast, which is still red all the way from Kara Sea to Beaufort.
romett1, thanks for posting the GFS anomalies+forecast. It seems that every time I look at the table the forecast a few days out shows the anomaly lessening. But every time you post an update the anomaly stays high. Is it just my imagination? Or is the GFS underestimating the forecast anomaly?
One concern, which may or may not have a bearing on the matter:
I think they take the average from the whole Arctic circle, which can be a little deceptive. You might find a +20oC anomaly in an area over the ocean and sea ice, but it might be really cold in another area, which could even be over land. This drops the average, which then fails to represent how detrimental the anomaly is to the ice. A good fix is posting the map along with the table. Neven is always pointing out that there are many people dropping in on this thread, so it is especially good for them to comprehend this, as I am sure the regulars here don't need it to be explained. BTW, good job romett1.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 28, 2017, 11:33:36 AM »
Latest GFS anomalies until next Tuesday (Climate Reanalyzer).
Kara, Laptev and ESS still anomalously warm, also Beaufort warmer than usual.
It is good to know what the average anomalies over the whole Arctic are running, but does anyone know what they are peaking at? I can only make out the color shades to a limited degree.
Looks like around +18oC....

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 28, 2017, 04:38:05 AM »
It seems a little quiet today except in the ESS and the Bering Sea.

4
The forum / Re: What is Off Topic and What is Not?
« on: March 27, 2017, 10:08:37 PM »
From the melting season:

Neven
So again, my 'rules' (they are actually universal laws):

1) Every comment in the melting/freezing season threads should pertain to that subject. These are the most popular threads for readers who don't comment, so don't bother them with off-topic stuff.
2) If you have to be off-topic, be short.
3) If you're the third guy who wants to say something about the off-topic subject, say: Okay, guys, this is getting off-topic, let's go to this or that thread - or open a new one - so our discussions don't get lost and we don't bother others. It's a big forum.
4) In other threads you can go off-topic more.
5) Don't start discussions about these rules in the thread itself. PM Neven or go to the The Forum category.

It's a big forum. Don't try to stuff all your ideas, theories and opinions in this one thread. Many people come here to read about the latest near real-time news on the 2017 melting season, not about the implications, the consequences and the politics of it all. Show some respect.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: March 27, 2017, 05:34:13 PM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.

If they became cheap because of excess supply, would they still want them?  ;)
Good point, and you are probably right.
There is an excess supply already, owned by the mining companies. They don't release them to the market, because as you said, they would be worth very little.
Seriously though, there are a couple of methods to make real diamonds in a lab, not talking about the fake ones, like cubic zirconia. I doubt it to be a very efficient carbon sink though, which is too bad.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: March 27, 2017, 04:38:44 PM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 27, 2017, 05:24:40 AM »
@Hyperion

Just trying to understand here; what are you saying has changed dramatically about the TPW? Looking back a few years, this year seems to show only minor changes of late. Please clarify. 

P.S. If we get too deep into this, you are going to need to open a new thread in a new location, as opposed to renaming this one. I don't know how that is going to fly with Neven, but I guess we'll see.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 27, 2017, 12:54:57 AM »
These cracks or shears or whatever are spreading and getting worse. They have no respect for the NP region either. Only the the thick, robust, durable, mighty, 93 cm ice in the Beaufort stands a chance against these. ;)

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 26, 2017, 05:10:01 PM »
Looking at the DMI 80n graphs temps consistently start rising around day 100, whats the primary driver behind this, increase in solar energy?
I would think so, especially due to the angle of incidence of the solar energy, by that time of year.

10
Permafrost / Re: Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 25, 2017, 05:19:33 PM »
Large positive snow anomalies in the Fall and early Winter (driven, at least in part, by wide expanses of open water in the Arctic) and dramatic negative anomalies in the early Spring (caused by a rapidly warming planet) is the worst possible scenario as the vast stretches of permafrost are insulated from the winter cold and then subjected to a lengthening warm season.

The changes occurring are accelerating.
I guess that is like a one-two punch. And the permafrost is melting, like crazy fast. Nobody could have foreseen how fast it is melting.

11
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

Wow, a whole 8 cm of bottom growth. So much for resistance to disintegration.  ;)
Not only that, look at the overall thickness: 93cm....
If the ice there is that much less thick than it is supposed to be, what about the rest? I think their calibration of sat. data got threw off.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 25, 2017, 02:46:57 AM »
Yes, Baffin ice is really moving along.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 11:44:34 PM »
I wasn't really saying that the Beaufort ice is that great compared to what it should be, only by comparison to the rest.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 02:21:25 PM »
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.

15
Permafrost / Re: Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 24, 2017, 04:18:54 AM »
wili
(I think I read somewhere recently also that the level of downwelling longwave radiation that such GHGs create in the Arctic is the strongest indicator of when melting of ice will begin. But I can't recall the source now.)


Neven mentioned that in the melting thread     http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL069330/full
Melt onset is determined by downwelling longwave radiation. From Mortin et al. (2016):

"The timing of melt onset affects the surface energy uptake throughout the melt season. Yet the processes triggering melt and causing its large interannual variability are not well understood. Here we show that melt onset over Arctic sea ice is initiated by positive anomalies of water vapor, clouds, and air temperatures that increase the downwelling longwave radiation (LWD) to the surface. The earlier melt onset occurs; the stronger are these anomalies. Downwelling shortwave radiation (SWD) is smaller than usual at melt onset, indicating that melt is not triggered by SWD. When melt occurs early, an anomalously opaque atmosphere with positive LWD anomalies preconditions the surface for weeks preceding melt. In contrast, when melt begins late, clearer than usual conditions are evident prior to melt. Hence, atmospheric processes are imperative for melt onset. It is also found that spring LWD increased during recent decades, consistent with trends toward an earlier melt onset."

16
Permafrost / Re: Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 24, 2017, 02:58:30 AM »
This map illustrates the high ground south of the Arctic where any evaporation from the warming ocean is likely to precipitate out as snow. For me the most at risk area is the uplands of Eastern Siberia and Mongolia, but you have to allow that anywhere from northern Spain to the Chukchi are possiblities. My own thinking is that until Laptev is ice free in November and December we have no idea how much snow a random weather event can drop here or how persistent it will be, but I suspect it will rapidly expand to the point where the northern slopes will carry permanent snow. IF that happens the climate in Siberia will reverse being much colder in the southern uplands and more like permanent springtime by the ocean, and in time an enduring cold wind falling out of the mountains flowing east over China.

http://topex.ucsd.edu/marine_topo/gif_images/global_topo_large.gif

I don't know for certain that something like this will happen, but I think it is reasonable that it could possibly. Regional climate transitions are appearing to have at least started in many places, and therefore in one way bbr could have a valid theory. I can't see it happening globally or even hemisphere-wise, but regionally, maybe.

17
Permafrost / Re: Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 23, 2017, 05:36:20 AM »
The air in the Arctic was dry in the past, but not anymore. There seems to be so much moisture now that it cannot be contained. I am no expert on that subject, and am sure there are others that can clarify.
Correct! But I am not talking about the Arctic re: decreasing/stable moisture, as it is definitely warming & moistening (also due to the loss of albedo); I am referencing land areas that are newly-covered by snow when they usually aren't.
I understand that, but I think the moisture problem may exist everywhere or at the very least, in many places other than the Arctic.  I will be open minded and wait on other thoughts in that regard though.

18
Permafrost / Re: Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 23, 2017, 05:12:44 AM »
The air in the Arctic was dry in the past, but not anymore. There seems to be so much moisture now that it cannot be contained. I am no expert on that subject, and am sure there are others that can clarify.

19
Permafrost / Re: Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 23, 2017, 04:47:34 AM »
@bbr2314
 I appreciate that you are willing to discuss this without being dogmatic about the matter, and hopefully some others can add to the discussion, as well.

Regarding this topic, on the one hand the extra albedo from the snow would reflect more short wave radiation from sunlight, and therefore there would be less long wave radiation from land trying to escape only to be trapped by ghg's. On the other hand the added moisture in the air would absorb more shortwave radiation to begin with. This effect is now believed to be the biggest problem with warming over the long term. So again, it seems the warming is one way, at least as far as I can tell.

www.washington.edu/news/2014/11/10/global-warming-not-just-a-blanket-in-the-long-run-its-more-like-tanning-oil/

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 23, 2017, 03:19:34 AM »
...
We are now seeing concurrent warming *and* increases in snow, even down at 41N. If that is the case in the mid-latitudes, as the graphs make clear, the situation is even more dramatic further north.

Is this increase enough to counter the background warming yet? Absolutely not (and perhaps it will never be). But one has to wonder if the seemingly unprecedented increase in global snowfall is only just beginning -- will be very interesting to watch the response this summer and autumn as the sea ice will (IMO) likely hit record low numbers.
Just to be clear, is it your contention that snow means there is cooling??? If so can you please cite the research which shows that?  I've lived in the subarctic most of my life. In my experience snow means warming, though still at or a bit below 0C.  It just doesn't snow when the temps are arctic cold and the pressure is high.

No, that is not my contention -- I am saying that the current amount of warming combined with the increasingly open Arctic Ocean results in more snowfall. Currently this results in relatively small opportunities for negative temperature anomalies (like last fall, where the +++snowfall in areas that don't normally see it so early resulted in very negative departures across much of Asia in October/November).

Eventually, if this feedback continues to amplify, I suspect it could lead to much more dramatic cooling by way of albedo effect. But we are most definitely not yet at that point and it may not even exist (though I suspect it does).

I wanted to reply to this, but so as not to derail this thread,
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1932.0.html

21
Permafrost / Negative Feedback of Positive Snowfall Anomalies
« on: March 23, 2017, 03:17:07 AM »
 Neven, feel free to move if there is a better location, please.
@bbr2314
I have always appreciated your enthusiastic input on the forum, and I don't won't to go against you for the sake of arguing alone, but I don't see how any amount of snow and the associated increased albedo could mathematically cancel out the amount of heat energy the Earth is absorbing, much less cause a reversal. Most of the heat is being absorbed in the oceans, which cover vastly more sq. km's  than land area, and especially land area that is even subject to snow cover at all. I don't have the info to do the math, but I am sure there are some on here that do.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: March 23, 2017, 12:43:46 AM »
Face time in the media for Artie C. Ice.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/22/arctic-ice-falls-record-winter-low-polar-heatwaves
                                                                                                                                 
Such thin ice now could see record low summertime sea-ice conditions in the Arctic next September. Photograph: Operation IceBridge/Nasa

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 22, 2017, 11:37:46 PM »
Latest daily volume numbers file while official site is not providing it.
The last update is for Feb. 28th in this file, which we have already.


P.S. I would make an educated guess that PIOMAS  is around 20.5k km3 right now and currently dropping.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 07:01:49 PM »

Like jdallen and Juan, my larger concern is the state of the ice poleward north of Greenland.  Since the 20th, in addition to the retreat from the Kara, there appears to be a general anti-clockwise rotation that is breaking up all of the ice around the pole from 85 degrees north. This is most evident on the Canadian side of the pole, but also seems to be appearing in the Russian side.

Sam


25
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: March 22, 2017, 05:18:51 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/feb/27/sand-mining-global-environmental-crisis-never-heard

Sand dredgers in Poyang Lake by Hamashu village. Sand mined here is sold to builders in Shanghai. Photograph: Vince Beiser

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 04:24:04 AM »
A couple areas that are noteworthy today.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 03:04:58 PM »
SMOS 18th-20th
CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: March 21, 2017, 12:17:49 PM »
Great, thanks.
Can't keep up with all the threads.
When do official research centers usually announce such a thing to the press?
They already did, in so many words.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/21/record-breaking-climate-change-world-uncharted-territory

29
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: March 21, 2017, 05:01:06 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/mar/21/record-breaking-climate-change-world-uncharted-territory

A boat lies in the dry Cedro reservoir in Quixadá, Brazil. Climate change increases the risk of extreme weather events like drought.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: March 21, 2017, 04:13:07 AM »
Oren
It was surely discussed on the IJIS thread following the first century drop after the max.


Was it called as the lowest winter extent on record?
Yes.

Here is the thread. I recommend reading the whole page 81 starting at least at reply #4014
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.4000.html#lastPost


You might want to read here also.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 12:13:03 AM »
A better look at the Laptev.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 20, 2017, 09:36:57 PM »
One note of caution. Even if the melt season turns out that there is not a great melt off and therefore a conclusion could be reached that the melt season was too cold or not right for melting, the ice is still in very bad shape. On top of that the winter months are getting so much warmer and stormier that what ice hangs around and actually grows is not in very good condition. In conclusion, the Arctic ice that is there is on life support and unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.

I wanted to reply to this but wasn't sure about doing so on this thread, for fear of derailing it, so I did so on the Open Thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1884.250.html#lastPost



33
The rest / Re: 2017 open thread
« on: March 20, 2017, 09:33:29 PM »
LRC1962
One note of caution. Even if the melt season turns out that there is not a great melt off and therefore a conclusion could be reached that the melt season was too cold or not right for melting, the ice is still in very bad shape. On top of that the winter months are getting so much warmer and stormier that what ice hangs around and actually grows is not in very good condition. In conclusion, the Arctic ice that is there is on life support and unless we humans get our act together, the rest of the earths systems are going to change so much that the normal will not be as it was even 20 years ago.
There is certainly a teleconnection between the Arctic and the rest of the Earth. Where I live, the trees have always been a rich green for my whole life til now, a place where everything could thrive with little effort. Now the trees are dead or dying with pale Autumn-ish looking leaves. Heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and droughts are happening all over the place. Don't be fooled by the TV media because they won't report everything at one time, so as to give you the big picture. The heat energy has built to a point that the Earth can longer hold it back from being harmful, even with the help of the vast oceans.

34
Consequences / Re: Ocean Temps
« on: March 19, 2017, 11:31:06 PM »
Another RS article that applies here.
The Glowing Waters of the Arabian Sea are Killing off Ocean Life

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/19/the-glowing-waters-of-the-arabian-sea-are-killing-off-ocean-life/

But the human-caused climate change that is spurring the massive noctiluca blooms in the Arabian Sea is bringing on these new conditions over the mere course of a few decades.     

 The oceans beneath the noctiluca mats are now increasingly robbed of life. Oxygen levels are plummeting.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 19, 2017, 10:48:55 PM »
@Neven
It might be worth looking into, as there have been so many severe avalanches in that area lately. I would google it myself, but I am on the way out to run errands.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 19, 2017, 05:34:37 PM »
Talking about "slush" there has no credibility

Ok, slush was probably an overstatement. However, the shape that the ice is in for this time of year has made it more mobile and at the whim of wind and current. When it compacts in one place, the concentration goes down in another. I don't recall saying anything about open water. The concentration went down by a percentage*, which I am sure many including myself thought to be worth mentioning. It shouldn't do that so easily right now. It simply isn't going to hold together once it really comes under any pressure, and then it will be "slush."


* In that one area after the 10th of the month, lasting until the current date.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 19, 2017, 06:40:30 AM »
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.
With current temps there, I doubt we are seeing any thinning out in CAA. More like the usual thickening-in I'd say.

Something changed around the 11th. Maybe that the ice is such slush that it is moving and compacting elsewhere with the wind.
Compare the 10th(left) with the 18th(right)

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 19, 2017, 04:38:16 AM »
Among other places, it looks like there is melting and thinning out of ice within parts of the CAA.

39
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: March 18, 2017, 11:35:23 PM »
Two more weeks of heavy rain yet to come in Peru, with major devastation underway.
Peru’s civil defence agency INDECI reported (pdf) yesterday that 62 people have lost their lives as a result of the heavy rain, flooding and landslides since December 2016. At least twenty regions have been affected.

72,115 displaced
567,551 affected
62 dead
170 injured
12 missing
9,018 homes destroyed
8257 homes damaged (uninhabitable)
110,094 homes affected
1,231 km main roads destroyed
132 bridges destroyed


http://floodlist.com/america/peru-lima-floods-mudslides-march-2017

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 18, 2017, 09:04:24 PM »
1000hpa warm air intrusion varying between +1oC and +2.2oC.
Starting now(left side) progressing in 3 hour intervals, left to right, and top down.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: March 18, 2017, 08:47:07 AM »
For whom it may concern, Jim Williams has started a specific thread about GCM models and their validation.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1922.msg106740/topicseen.html#msg106740


42
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: March 17, 2017, 08:19:18 AM »
www.cbsnews.com/news/peach-crops-suffer-in-winter-2017s-drastic-temperature-swings/

Gary Black is Georgia’s agriculture commissioner.

“This could be a $200 million night, and in worst-case scenario, it would be easy to say we’re in the hundreds of millions of dollars,” Black said.



43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 17, 2017, 03:48:55 AM »
Antarctic Sea Ice is doing what the Arctic sea ice did this last fall and winter.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/extent_s_running_mean_amsr2_regular.png

The ol' insolation batteries got charged a little too well. I look for it to happen again in the Arctic later this year to a greater degree than last year. You can already see the heat building in the oceans surrounding the Arctic by looking at the anomalies at high lats. on both sides. Will get worse when more waters are open.
                                                                                                                               

What do the failing predictive models have to do with the melting season?

That has been moved to another thread already, thanks to Archimid, who is becoming quite a useful contributor on this forum.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 16, 2017, 11:50:53 AM »
You have to remember also what that warmer water in the Barents is capable of doing when it gets disturbed. It has been building back up, waiting to get moved around again.


BTW, here is a look at SMOS.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 16, 2017, 06:23:05 AM »
The ice disposal at work.
Notice how the whole front drops back toward the end of the run.  10th-15th

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 16, 2017, 02:47:57 AM »
That big floe turning the corner seems to move a longer distance from 14 to 15 than from 13 to 14. I wonder if that is an artifact of the images or is it actual acceleration of the floe.

It looks like the wind had picked up about that time, so it probably actually accelerated.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 16, 2017, 01:15:20 AM »
No doubt about movement in the Fram.
13th-15th
CLICK IMAGE

49
RS had a pertinent post in this regard recently and it referred to this conversation on Youtube. A little long btw, so maybe get some popcorn or something.

Dr. Richard Alley, Dr Michael Mann, and Dr Johnathan Brockopp discuss the extent of the global warming crisis without false equivalency given to climate change deniers. Video source: Conversations — Live Climate Change.

“We actually have high confidence that the warming that is happening now is not natural cycle. If anything, over the past few decades, nature has tried to cool us off a little bit… The sun has dimmed just a little bit. We have blocked the sun with particles from our smokestacks just a little bit. And yet it has warmed. If you were to ask how much of the warming that we see recently has been caused by our greenhouse gasses, it’s a little more than all of it (emphasis added).” — Dr Richard Alley

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2yclMcDroQ

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 15, 2017, 02:21:10 AM »
 I thought it might be at least a little interesting to see what the export ready ice looks like at this time.            CLICK IMAGE TO ACTIVATE PLEASE

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