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Messages - Sterks

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 16, 2017, 01:30:37 PM »
5days out is unreliable, but as it's quiet here - GFS is predicting 978hpa
The ECMWF has it a little lower but in about the same position for the 20th. I think that it has been noted to be pretty reliable for a few days out. Not my cup of tea, reading these charts, but this looks like the makings for a strong gradient setup.
Le coup de grâce to this thread

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 14, 2017, 02:55:25 PM »
Some years like 2016 had areas of below 15% slush but it wasn't really ice free. I'd prefer to count end-September extent to rank annual minimums
That goes both ways. Hard to consider some >15% areas of last year as not ice free for practical purposes, like negligible volume aggregated, avaliable heat for release, and even apt for navigation

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2017 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: September 12, 2017, 11:34:46 PM »
@Egalsust
Unless there is an unexpected fast refreezing, like last year but even faster, September extent can't be above 5 million km2, something is wrong in your assumptions (two things I'd say).

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 09, 2017, 11:52:58 AM »
And minimum extent any day now. The forecast turns really cold for the Central Arctic and the Pacific side.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September update)
« on: September 06, 2017, 11:09:04 PM »
A comparison of Piomas to ice thickness at the new NOAA-RASM-ESRL-PSD site (RASM-ESRL_2017-09-05-00_t048.nc shown). It's not clear that a netCDF file exists for Piomas thickness, they seem still into fortran mode. This makes quantitative comparisons fairly difficult. Maybe that's the idea (?).
No. The idea in academia is don't break what it works. Be it fortran 77 using a non standard grid. And that there is one or two digits less available in the amount for grads and post docs to refactor code compared to industry or big institutions.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 06, 2017, 12:31:23 AM »
no net refreezing growth anywhere

Yes, which is starting to be harder to reconcile with observational products, areas shooting up by some 100k's in a few days and things like that.
The net melt map of ESRL shows positive melt indeed, but of really small magnitude (order of milimeters/day rather than cm in some places) in growingly extense area of the Arctic. It also shows an unfortunate selection of minimum melt / minimum freeze color: white for both. Therefore we cannot know if indeed there is melt everywhere or, finally, refreeze is forecasted somewherein the white areas. I cannot process the nc myself, no way to know. :(

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 04, 2017, 06:37:35 PM »
i give it another 5-10 days to admit defeat LOL
The strong warmer winds from the Atlantic are more certain to materialize, so indeed I would not admit defeat in another 5 - 10 days, despite the ice pack to start closing in the most broken areas.
Hey, it's been cold up there!

This is how hycoms sees ice drift in five days, conditions lasting for two or three days.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 03, 2017, 10:30:06 PM »
No.... The ESRL products did not show anything particularly indicative of refreezing for today.


Oh wait there was the helloutta snowing and -6C or lower in many areas of the CAB in their forecast, but I guess those were mistaken

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 03, 2017, 12:45:11 PM »
Perhaps some got caught up in day to day details and misleading forecasts ---myself about a week ago---.
It is safe to say, no matter if the minimum is today or by end of the month, that the amount of ice, and more importantly the spatial distribution of it, is similar to last year's end of season, with more and thicker ice in the Atlantic side, and sparser and thinner ice in the Pacific side, although the way the ice pack has reached to it is really different. There will be ---most probably--- more volume, extent and area at minimum, but the differences will not be that significant. If the Arctic experiences another winter as 2015/2016 or 2016/2017, it will have to dodge another bullet in 2018. If.
Really interested on how this winter is going to be.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 03, 2017, 09:15:18 AM »
Really, that nobody stands up to you and your arrogance...
I'd rather you take this back. It's a science forum, not a personality forum.
I wish I could do what A-Team calls for, I lack the computing power, the technical know-how, the time, and mostly the discipline to acquire what I lack. But I still commend it. And I do my utmost best to avoid ad-hominem statements.
I think you are right (and the moderator). I have removed the post, I dislike ad-hominems as well.
I apologize for that.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 31, 2017, 07:41:40 PM »
A. Snow does not constitute refreezing, even though it may somewhat affect area readings.
B. -2 and even -6 deg temps do not generally freeze seawater, though they refreeze meltponds (again affecting area readings).
I get it. I just say, I thought I saw a significant cooling in the ESRL forecast for a vast region of the pack, comprising not only North of 80N but also the pacific-side edge, and it looked more agreeable with freezing than melting, that's all. I understand bottom melt will continue at places, but if cold temperatures dominate, even that can abate earlier than expected... Or coexist with ocean surface freezing, briefly

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 31, 2017, 07:29:47 PM »
Right. So who's we?  In my opinion
You should write the chief scientist there and tell them of the big mistake in their model.
No, I don't find anything essentially mistaken in their model, don't misunderstand my words.
Let's not make a ball effect of misunderstandings. I don't agree with some of what you said, not with what the maps indicate. You being whatever collectivity or an individual. Ok? That's all.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 31, 2017, 03:02:11 PM »
Right, there is net melt everywhere through Sept 4th. As far as we know, the freezing season has not started. There'll be some overlap in a few weeks though.
Right. So who's we?
In my opinion, the ESRL graphs show as many symptoms of continued melting as already overlapping symptoms of refreezing in very extensive areas of the Arctic. These snows shown above come accompanied of temperatures below -3ºC, sometimes below -6ºC, also shown in the same web page. Snow is made of frozen water, and with these temperatures, it may remain frozen, as far as I know.
Some locations near the Beaufort "appendix" show SSTs close to -2C, and some early signs of expansion (not dispersion) of the pack, coexisting with other areas where the water heat excess is melting the ice in a matter of days.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 30, 2017, 09:11:39 AM »
Significant cooling and snowing over the CAB toward the Beaufort side in the next days. The snow models of ESRL and GFS:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/seaice/
Not sure how to bring these animations here out of the noaa page.
The winds seem to keep pushing the ice from the South at Laptev and ESS from this model.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 29, 2017, 07:33:12 PM »
Actually the inverted dipole is getting in a location to spread the pack even more (the low is creeping into the Central Arctic) with colder, much colder temperatures over Beaufort Chukchi and the adjacent portion of the CAB. However, strong warmer winds over Laptev and ESS are keeping melt up in these areas, as Wipneus map over AMSR2 thread shows.
What may be happening is that NSIDC lower resolution picks the first effect but not the second for extent. UH extent has kept falling steadily, the pack is very broken.
Relative equilibrium situation in regards to extent, but since UH area keeps falling, extent is candidate to further loses later (I guess, weather dependent).

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 28, 2017, 07:47:42 PM »
The inverted dipole that has seized the Arctic will be pulling air from the Atlantic/Asia and compacting the ice North of Barents, so I would expect more extent loses. But the winds across the Arctic become Northernlies at the broken ice edge of the Pacific side, where one would expect those sudden refreezes like last year would happen first. So who knows.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 28, 2017, 02:00:57 PM »
Hi Sterks

This link will get you regular updates of their current location:

http://www.arcticmission.com/follow-arctic-mission/


Thank you!

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 27, 2017, 08:43:03 PM »
Thanks Niall. I read in the dedicated ASIF thread that they are approaching the pack through the Beaufort bite, and if this is 80 N , they are just at the edge of broken ice.
Is there a web where they are posting regular updates and their location?

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 26, 2017, 03:16:55 PM »
Sterks: check the EPS daily average, not the 1-5 day period. However, the "Garlic Press" isn't as pronounced as it was a few days ago.
Thank you :)
The multiple averaging of the EPS across simulations and over 5 days must smear the isobars through CAA. These are clear when looking at the daily ECMWF.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 26, 2017, 01:51:06 AM »
That's great A-Team.
The only doubt I have is how DMI satellite-based SST maps can display above-zero SSTs under the ice (notably at the Beaufort appendix).
But I assume that it is normal noise, and also may be caused by the current thinness and sparseness of ice over there.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 25, 2017, 11:46:44 PM »
Plenty of compacting winds for the next five days, warm from the Atlantic too, that will bring losses of extent for the rest of August.
I don't see a garlic press happening though from the Hycom drift forecasts. But at any rate the Hycom forecasts are not at its height in reliability, momentarily

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 25, 2017, 06:13:15 PM »
total melting has the limitation of being cut off at 0.35 cm/day,  the computed melt is much higher at many ice edge locations.
That is a good one to write them about ... questions are encouraged.

It turns out that there is a tab dedicated to thickness change (snow and ice), and the scale does not cut off the different melts (bottom, lateral, top). In this case I cropped the right-side palette scales to fit the screenshot into the 700x700, but they were identical to the scale for the left-upper melt map (ice bottom melting).
In fact, bottom melt is forecasted of the order of 1 cm/day and up to 2 cm/day in the very edge of the pack.
It surprises me how much bottom melt varies day to day, and how dependent it is of the changing winds in the next days.
And it surprises me the almost absence of noticeable lateral melt in the model forecasts. Nothing going on inside the "soup"? Even with these temperatures I would have expected to see something under the white bin, of -0.3 /day (funny that in the total melt graph, the researcher sets up an Upper cut-off of close to 0.3/day, if we combine this bottom melt map with the total melt map, we almost get the complete picture of it)
As soon as it gets "quiet", bottom melt is reduced, that is nicely reflected in the forecast.
Can we consider the "2017 Surface Melting Season" finished?

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 23, 2017, 11:00:19 PM »
Since the ESRL postprocessed total melting has the limitation of being cut off the at the rather meager value of 0.35 cm/day, I can't but suppose that the computed melt is much higher at many ice edge locations.
This tool can be validated, no better moment than September. During those few days when the pack goes white in the concentration maps and compactness has a fast increase, this tool will have to show mostly zero or negative melt (refreeze) in general inside the pack.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2017, 10:44:14 PM »
Ned very interesting. Off the cuff, most areas minimum is determined by export into them. Best shown by the Greenland Sea. The CAB is really the best indicator for real freezing onset.
In addition I suspect your criteria are picking up weirdness somehow. Hudson refreezing on day 220? Bering refreezing before Chukchi? Possibly small transitory blips cause this. Maybe add a threshold criterion of an absolute or percentage gain to mark a day as past the minimum. And/or use the last time at the minimum rather than the first.

Great, this is exactly the response I wanted.

* Yes, it's quite possible that export (er, "import" in this case) is actually what produces the first rise after minimum in many basins in many years.

* Yes, some of the "weirdness" you identified was due to my poor choice of using the first increase after the first instance of the minimum.  I've now re-done the graph using the first day of increase after the last instance of the minimum:



The results are somewhat different, including addressing both the points of weirdness that you identified (though in 2000 the Bering still shows its first increase only three days after the Chukchi). 

Here are the updated medians:

GrnLS   239   26-Aug
Baffn   250   7-Sep
CAB   256   13-Sep
CAA   258   15-Sep
KaraS   265   22-Sep
Beauf   266   23-Sep
Laptv   268   25-Sep
ESS   269   26-Sep
Baren   270   27-Sep
Chukc   273   30-Sep
Hudsn   274   1-Oct
Okhot   311   7-Nov
Berng   312   8-Nov

I'm going to continue to think about this and see if I can come up with further improvements.

Greatness! Thanks Oren for suggesting the improvement.
We don't have a NASA cluster yet a nice list of what to expect region by region in the coming weeks based on past years, that's more than expected. Thanks Ned.
Of course there is the unpredictability component.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2017, 06:27:31 PM »
@Ned nice job, for further discredit of my opening post :)
For the last metric, I was expecting area to really start reaching bottom, but not really. As unusual as this season usually has been. The area curve should be getting flat now and extent keep dropping, not the opposite.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2017, 10:01:45 AM »
Every party needs a pooper, that's why we invited you. Party pooper.
I am not going to respond to your insult.
My speculation has easily been put in question by cold numbers (see Ned's above) and experience (see Neven's above), but it is not affected by insults.
We can make of this, 1 Cross-firing of ad-hominems WUWT Style, 2 A dead thread until the freezing season is well-acknowledged 3 Somewhere to place facts of starting symptoms of the pack refreezing even before the minimum, be it on August or October, ... or not refreezing if you wish
I prefer 2 or 3

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2017, 12:26:58 AM »
Every JAXA daily minimum so far has been during the two week interval of Sept 7-21.

On average, a slowdown like this occurs 11 days before the minimum ... but it ranges from 28 days before minimum (in 2005) to 2 days after minimum (in 2008).

The fascinating thing, though, is that an early slowdown like this is anticorrelated with an early minimum.  Years with an early slowdown tend to have late minimums.
....
The data are noisy and the standard error is large, but the p-value is highly significant (0.012) at a=0.05.

Based on that model, one would expect the 2017 minimum to be somewhere between days 257-271 (i.e., September 13-27) with a best estimate of day 264 (Sept 20).

Make of it what you will.
Nice.
 Yes, it may happen, at least you have the numbers, I just have the hunch this year will be slow and early, adding noise to the stats. Been a weird melting season.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2017, 12:16:26 AM »
Although the melt has slowed down, particularly surface melt and storm-associated melt due to nice weather, this thread is too soon. OTOH, I'm not sure it even makes sense to have separate melt and freeze threads...
In your opinion.
In my opinion, it doesn't hurt to speculate in parallel threads during the transition, as usual. And this season has proven colder than expected once and again.

While I still expect some extent drops in the next few days, this weekend may bring another pause. Additionally, temperatures for next week, see ASIG, while GFS the least reliable source, for the last days of August seem falling.

Is there a lot of bottom melt? Or most of the ice bottom-melting at this stage is gone because it was much thinner than usual? No winds, no movement, bottom and lateral melt must be very slow.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 22, 2017, 06:51:28 PM »
Minimum could come 5th-10th of Sept, but very unlikely in August. I think this thread is too early...
We'll see
Anemic melting this last stretch of August if you ask me...

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 22, 2017, 02:34:59 PM »
Not an specific one, but is IJIS extent ok? since this spinned off from the discussion of that thread.
In any case, it will be interesting to see if the minimum happens before or very early September, since the weather does not seem very aggressive.

31
Arctic sea ice / The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: August 22, 2017, 12:45:56 AM »
I dare open this thread with the image below. Drift predictions for the 25th, which are similar 26 and 27th.
High pressure will dominate Arctic, broad clear skies with little movement.
Will this strange melting season bring a minimum in August?
Also attached the ensemble average of pressures next five days. This should decrease extent, but the isobars are not very tight...

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 22, 2017, 12:36:36 AM »
In terms of drift, hycom predicts some movement, until the 25th, when the forecast is shown below. 26th and 27th similar frigid quietness. The broad highs seem not to set much in motion.
This is excellent to cool things down. If the highs bring clear skies, the better for cooling down ocean and ice.


33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 22, 2017, 12:21:25 AM »
Fantastic animations ATeam and Oren, thank you.
The Chukchi side of the ESS bulge is being affected by the usual waters from Bering. Not coincidence most of the ice pack shapes get a deep bite East and North of Wrangel Island thse last years.

Winds are detrimental this time of the year: from South they compact and bring ocean heat via atmosphere, from the North they push the ice to uncomfortable areas.
Always cause vertical and wave mixing.
Not much wind lately or in the forecasts, perhaps enough to "pack up things" a little before coldness takes over, as the blow you mention over ESS, oren, also Laptev and Beaufort sea. The "unpacking" or dispersion goes toward Barents, expect Atlantic waters melt out the exported ice.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 21, 2017, 07:45:29 PM »
I am waiting for a clapped out vessel full up of nasty stuff operated by a shonky outfit to boldly go where such a heap of junk should not.


Does the Crystal Serenity fit that description?

Lol actually

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 21, 2017, 06:39:22 PM »
We are currently in an unprecedented slow down in this melting season. Looking at JAXA sea ice extent data for the past 5 days (8.14-8.20), here is how this year compares to previous years. All of this in a time frame were weather was considered unfavorable by some. Where is the heat?
Not sure if we are reading the same forum. I can't speak but for myself, and found the forecasts as "neither fish nor fowl" a few days ago just as "the slowdown" had started ...which common sense says is a weather friendly for ice at this time of the year, see below.

But I observe in the forecasts, may be wrong, some potential for compaction starting now. It is not very strong but might persist for a week.

The most recent runs from ECMWF and GFS indicates more high pressure dominated weather as the melting season is getting close to the end. If this forecast had been in July and not the second half of August the sea ice would have faced seriously melting.

As my mother would have said in her tongue this weather, now, does not bring "Ni chicha ni limoná" for the first days but looks interesting in the longer range, with potential for compaction, like wrapping up things.
In 20 days tops, this is over.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 20, 2017, 10:53:27 AM »
It is the no-GAC effect

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 19, 2017, 03:32:01 PM »
Thank you for all this work, Wipneus.
I am very much surprised how resilient the Beaufort vestige of ice is turning out to be.
But based on Piomas thickness and SSTs over nearby waters, that should go before minimum.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 19, 2017, 12:59:10 AM »
In 20 days tops, this is over.

This ... being the melting season? So you predict the minimum at September 7 or earlier? It would surprise me if it were quite that early, but we'll see.
Based on what ECMWF, I am inclined to believe so, if the strong dipole pulling air from Laptev and oriented towards the CAA comes to happen. It would be a nice compacting event in 5-7 days from now.
I don't think there is momentum to melt much more of the ESS arm but there may be some compacting there too.
And before all that the Beaufort vestige and the NWP ice will lose ice.
Loses before Sep guaranteed.
But then... Everything seems compacted toward high latitudes (except the arm that wont melt, if so very slowly).
I may well be very wrong or missing much.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 18, 2017, 07:34:50 PM »
The most recent runs from ECMWF and GFS indicates more high pressure dominated weather as the melting season is getting close to the end. If this forecast had been in July and not the second half of August the sea ice would have faced seriously melting.

As my mother would have said in her tongue this weather, now, does not bring "Ni chicha ni limoná" for the first days but looks interesting in the longer range, with potential for compaction, like wrapping up things.
In 20 days tops, this is over.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 18, 2017, 12:09:44 AM »
FOOW why do you call it divergence?
Divergence, in geophysics, is an inherited concept from the Mathematics it uses as
                     div • v
where div is the divergence operator and v is a vector.
I am sorry. It is a too frequent concept, they should use another word.
Off topic, my apologies.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 17, 2017, 10:49:14 PM »
Unfortunate selection of wording though, "divergence" where actually the opposite "compaction" due to Beaufort Gyre for example, is what causes early drift of the ice away from the coasts, letting open ocean behind (what they call divergence).

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 17, 2017, 04:37:50 PM »
NASA Worldview shows that today (17 Aug 2017) the North Pole (90 North) sea ice has pulverized:
Looking at these images, don't you get a feeling of observing same image and again year after year, since 2013?
I agree the ice is pulverized, but in most of the places it is in a continuous state of pulverization, then it regenerates in Winter (if so happens) and then thicker MYI appears in Spring, less pulverized (if so happens).
No?
So what we just need is a string of cold winters without the stream of storms from the Atlantic that so pervasive they were in 2015 and 2016. Or sufficiently cold winters (if so ever happens)

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 17, 2017, 04:18:26 PM »
Interesting to note that 2017 has been almost precisely the same as 2016 since about half way through June.  Is this simply the "new normal" trajectory?
I would not question it is the new normal for a cold season over a thin Arctic pack, with warm sun over vast open ocean in the periphery accumulating heat in May and June, for a gradual release during August.
In summary, it is not normal.
Or in other words, can we ever define a "normal"?

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 16, 2017, 06:56:00 PM »
It looks an arctifact.
Be it or not, the CAA is headed for a serious end-of-season melt

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 15, 2017, 08:49:49 AM »
Yes. Generalized under zero temperatures are the culprit.



However there is some agitation. In the forecast.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 14, 2017, 07:43:43 PM »
if anyone is interested to know what i'm talking about for months now is this what happened withing a few hours around o-buoy 14:

and yes i'm aware that the back could look still difference (probably does) but nevertheless it was not so much open water anywhere during recent rotations of the buoy ;)
In view of the GPS track, and of the satellite images, some here were wondering why we were not watching an image like this before.
I am not sure what you have been claiming since since months but I hope you are not 🍒 picking or utilizing this otherwise expectable image

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 14, 2017, 11:36:06 AM »
In binary, pauldry is correct.
Some possibilities to end in 10th place.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 14, 2017, 12:21:33 AM »
We should be seeing big drops for UH AMSR2 compactness, just like last year. What's interesting is that NSIDC compactness is still high and follows the 2013 trend line.

Maybe I should do another silly compactness map dividing NSIDC SIA by UH AMSR2 SIE...
That's nice exploratory work Neven.
Personally I would also divide the NSIDC Area by the UH Area, to isolate and expose the effect of wet surface as much as possible. But that is matter for the next season, since that starts to be interesting in May and stop being so much by around these days of the season.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 13, 2017, 08:34:16 PM »
Arctic Basin animation

Correct me if I'm wrong but that looks like the ice pointing out towards Wrangel is being cut off...

That also occurred in 2012 and the cut off ice disappeared during the GAC but it occurred about 2 weeks earlier. We could very well have some lonely ice in the CAB near ESS as the melt season ends.
Last year too

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 13, 2017, 02:47:25 PM »
AMSR2 area-wise, this year is already almost below the 2013/14 minima per the graphs that Wipneus updates at the OP of the Home brew thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.0.html

And this was a "cold-surface" year.  Admittedly, this area das not reflect the lack of surface ponds as much, but we can discard by now the notion that this was a rebound year. It was not because of the thin FYI out of the weakest winter as others point out, which allowed first expanses of ocean to open up early enough and trap heat, and because even moderate cyclonic weather is very unfriendly to thin ice (and as thin as it was that it may have been catching the necessary radiation through it as explained by Rob Dekker in the buoys thread).
There has been a near balance between cold weather and thinness of the ice in this season. Still a month or more of bottom melt, we just have to wait how much ice is below the threshold of survival

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