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Messages - dosibl

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Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 16, 2017, 07:34:26 PM »
Worldview images from today show another large jump in cracking area, almost the entire region looks compromised.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 12, 2017, 07:09:38 PM »
Relatively large jump in SST compared to yesterday (that area has been around -1.2C), with more heat on the way it'll be interesting to see if it gets any worse.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-94.59,89.02,826/loc=171.724,70.557

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 06, 2017, 05:42:23 PM »
Here's a similar thickness comparison using HYCOM.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 03, 2017, 09:29:43 PM »
PIOMAS definitely trending down, we'll have to go to war with the army we have...

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (April)
« on: April 29, 2017, 08:57:28 PM »
This seems a bit out of scope for a discussion of current PIOMAS numbers, might be better suited in a new thread?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The Fast Transition
« on: April 28, 2017, 12:45:11 AM »
I've also seen some stalling of thickness in my HYCOM graphs, however that data is a little rough so I'm looking for the next PIOMAS numbers to hopefully shed some light.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 25, 2017, 03:19:51 PM »
PIOMAS firmly has us in a volume anomaly, but area/extent are still in the same ballpark as years past. I'm concerned the square-cube law might throw a curveball in how fast/how much volume melts out.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 08, 2017, 12:16:24 AM »
At this point in the season I'd expect volume to be the most informative feature for the minimum, I've been shying away from the area/extent graphs because I don't think they tell as much of the story for overall ice health at the end of the freeze.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: April 04, 2017, 09:48:28 PM »
The X axis starting before January really throws me off with these graphs, is the graphed data through the middle of March or all of March?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: April 04, 2017, 09:36:25 PM »
They didn't update the thumbnail, I've been staring at it all day!

Average thickness chart looks a little troubling.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 30, 2017, 07:57:17 PM »
@Thomas That graph doesn't line up with what I'd expect just based on the FDD anomaly delta between the two years.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:06:36 AM »
I've been watching the Hycom CICE thickness plots (https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html) while I wait for the next PIOMAS update, so I decided to download all the images and try to extract some data from them.

For each day I get the total number of colored pixels, as well as the thickness associated with that color (ranging from 0 to 5 meters). With those numbers its pretty straightforward to graph total thickness as well as average thickness.

Right now the numbers are for all ice shown in the image, I'm hoping to eventually produce the numbers by region, I'm particularly interested to see the overall percentage of ice that is in the Fram.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 26, 2017, 05:02:31 PM »
Looking at the DMI 80n graphs temps consistently start rising around day 100, whats the primary driver behind this, increase in solar energy?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 10:52:14 PM »
I think a fair amount of ice north of the Nares has been busy sliding towards the Fram instead of pressing on the arch, a trend which looks set to continue.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 20, 2017, 11:42:16 PM »
Thanks for the tips, plenty of things to keep an eye on.

Definitely interested in watching the Beaufort sea, comparing March 20th across the past few years shows how stark the difference is.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 20, 2017, 03:29:06 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?

This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 12, 2016, 03:25:48 PM »
The rub on machine learning for 16/17 freezing is that unless someone made it a big project I don't see it being that useful, perhaps only as good as forecasting ice disposition a few days into the future. With how unprecedented the past few weeks have been, I'd also be wary of a model that relied too much on historic data since it would have a hard time accounting for what we are seeing now.

Its a shame the NIPS slides didn't cover any deep learning, its also a shame that NIPS'16 just ended and I can't find anything about climate modeling in the presentations. Archimid, don't give AlphaGo too much credit, the paper google released on it is a bit technical but the entire system is pretty straightforward to understand. As with all things deep learning, the end result will depend on the quality and quantity of data available.

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