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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: Today at 03:25:29 PM »
I am looking for a model that predicts the probability for and date of a post-Anthropocene world, i.e. when humans have damaged the world and themselves as a species so badly that humans' further influence on the planet is minimal. (Feeling pessimistic today)

2
Over on the 2017 melting season thread, they have been discussing the abnormal (extraordinary)  snowfall amounts last winter in places as far apart as parts of Siberia, the Rockies, Greenland and the Himalayas, with thoughts on how that could effect the melting season in the Arctic.

I have seen in various places serious discussion as to whether this greatly enhanced snowfall will become the norm. In a warming world that surely will lead to greatly enhanced summer melting. I tried to think what that might mean in terms of consequences for Greenland and South Asia but it is beyond my poor tired brain.

3
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: Today at 02:02:30 PM »
bbr2314 has pointed out (on 2017 melting season) that Greenland accumulated an amazing additional weight of snow last winter (700 million gt?). I show the graph again. It is from http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/.
Well worth a read.

If, as many have suggested, this massive increase in snowfall is likely to become frequent in future years, this must have consequences. One could easily imagine a warming world where Greenland accumulates vast additional mass through snowfall in winter and correspondingly greatly increased melt in summer.  Sea level rise would reduce or increase depending on the change in net SMB over the years, while surely a vastly increased melt flooding into the Atlantic could change just about everything.

Trying to think it through has given me brain-ache.




4
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: May 25, 2017, 03:43:43 PM »
Another little item about the Polarstern-

http://maritime-executive.com/article/polarstern-sets-sail-for-svalbard

"The icebreaker will go alongside an ice floe, where the atmospheric researchers will spend two weeks continuously measuring how the energy balance on the surface varies with changing cloud cover. By doing so, they hope to address open questions concerning the feedback mechanisms between sea ice, clouds, and particles in the air, which contribute to the warming of the Arctic."

Again, just posting it here on account of I am not sure it's worth a new thread.

Perhaps the name of the thread could be changed from "Barneo 2017" to "Arctic Expeditions". I for one would like a single place for info about the people who are going to the field to get their observations. As an oldie I still think people on the ground have an extra that satellites cannot match.


5
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: May 25, 2017, 01:14:33 PM »
The melt continues though confined to southern coasts, and according to cci-reanalyzer temperatures should allow the melt to continue  on southern coastal region for the next few days.






6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 25, 2017, 11:19:25 AM »
Herewith some more boring numbers.

Jaxa extent as at May 24 of 11.6 million is 0.8 million more than 2016. That is 14 days behind 2016.
Looking at melting from May 24 to minimum in previous years, to reach 2007 and 2016 minima would require melting from now to minimum at around 4% greater than the previous 10 years average.
To reach the 2012 result would require melting at 16% above that previous 10 years average.
If melting from now to minimum was at that average rate, minimum would be 4.3 million m2.

Given that the melting season remaining is around 100 to 110 days (?) the chances of a spectacular result seem to be diminishing. The slow-motion train-wreck remains - slow? I will say no more until PIOMAS for May is out.

7
This thread is about corporate democrats. But to me there is no fundamental difference between Corporate Democrats and Corporate Republicans. Yes, they have different agendas, but the route to power is the same. Eisenhower, around 60 years ago, warned about the rising power and influence of the military industrial complex. That didn't go well. Now we have a wider group of the very rich controlling the political agenda. Democracy in the USA is now bought and sold. Until "Citizens United" is repealed and limits to political funding are strengthened I don't see how anything can change. SuperPACs rule, OK.

The chance of another Trump rising is therefore quite high - and next time you might get one with brains. Mind you, the UK ain't much better. The one with the biggest political funding usually wins.






8
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: May 24, 2017, 02:27:17 PM »
Given the very strong sea ice drift around Antarctica, the marked reduction in refreezing rates in the last 4 days may be a temporary blip.(63,000 km2 per day cf 135,000 per day in the previous 10 days).
Nevertheless, it remains that from Early Nov 2016 to early April 2017, a period of over 150 days, sea ice extent (per Jaxa) was the lowest in the satellite record, and since then (a period of over 40 days) sea ice extent has been and remains second lowest, (nearly 1 million km2 lower than the 1980s average).

Significant ? Je ne sais pas. Worth keeping an eye on ? Methinks yes.


9
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: May 22, 2017, 06:55:34 PM »
Hullo Wipneus,
I was waiting to see if the last 2 days jaxa nos were just a blip. If they are not, time once again to wonder what the hell is goi g on down there ?

10
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: May 22, 2017, 02:00:27 PM »
Greenland melting quite high 18th & 19th May- especially on SW coast.

Does Greenland Melting Season deserve a thread of its own?


Good idea. We've had one every year so far, I believe. Here it is: Greenland 2017 melt season

Cor! Thanks. I hope there are chances of images where melting is biting hard.

11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: May 21, 2017, 03:48:18 PM »
Greenland melting quite high 18th & 19th May- especially on SW coast.

Does Greenland Melting Season deserve a thread of its own?


12
Consequences / Re: Seed Bank Vault Flooding
« on: May 21, 2017, 11:18:15 AM »
"It was not in our plans to think".

The vault was designed to last forever, and not to need human intervention to keep it safe.
But Svalbard is a place at the leading edge of climate change, and where changes are well recorded.
In theory planning such a facility, especially given its function, needed to include assuming at least a "business as usual" climate scenario to 2100.
The event was caused by extremely high temperatures. But those temperatures will likely be common within a decade or two.

The depressing conclusion is that even an environmentally aware Norwegian Government is not building climate change sufficiently into certain key decisions.

13
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: May 20, 2017, 04:41:10 PM »
Couldn't resist this image of the jetstream over Antarctica. An almost perfect outer ring with enormous (Rossby?) waves inside.


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 20, 2017, 04:28:39 PM »
Surely , as we approach ice free, the melt of remaining ice accelerates? We , thankfully , have never witnessed the ice get low enough across the basin for this to happen but we have seen stricken areas 'blink out' once cover become real low?

More (approximate) numbers, I'm afraid.

Volume at maximum (per PIOMAS) has gone down by 10 percent per decade while extent (per NSIDC) at only 2.5 percent per decade. Therefore average thickness at maximum is in decline.

Volume at minimum(per PIOMAS) has gone down by 20 percent per decade while extent (per NSIDC) only 12.5 percent per decade. Therefore average thickness at minimum is in decline.

Therefore extent has reduced at a lower rate than volume at all times in the year.

If minimum volume continues to decline at 2 percent per annum then goodbye September sea ice by 2029. At some point extent would then have to catch up to also be zero. Arithmetic is wonderful.

But nature abhors a straight line. I don't know how gray a gray-wolf you are, sir, but this old fella is fairly sure he will see a blue arctic ocean somewhat before 2029.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: May 20, 2017, 03:39:43 PM »
Did the guys who decided to put the seed vault where it is on Spitzbergen get their climate change forecasts from Breitbart News, and / or Scott Pruitt and / or Lamar Smith ?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 20, 2017, 03:26:40 PM »
It is May 20th, the beginning of those magic 2 months, one each side of the solstice, when even at 52 degrees N daylight hours are wonderfully long, and insolation (though not temperature) is at the maximum.

So I thought I would add some boring (Jaxa) numbers to the thread. Since All Fools' Day (April 1) melting per day this year to May 19 has been on average 36 thousand km2, compared with 50 thousand last year. i.e. quite slow. BUT I also looked forward and looked at average melt from May 19 to each previous year's minimum, and averaged the last 10 years.

To achieve the 2007 minimum extent, the melt in 2017 for the rest of the season has to be just 2 percent greater than the average during that period in 2007-2016, and to equal the 2016 minimum, 3 percent above that average. But to achieve the 2012 result a 14 percent above average melt from today is necessary.

Of interest, at least to me, was also seeing how the yearly melt from now to minimum is increasing over time.
1980's Average    5,834,805
1990's Average    6,096,434
2000's Average    6,732,728
Average 2007-2016    7,547,773

With all the images showing the pre-conditioning (per Neven) of the remaining ice cap for melting I must assume (which is pre-conditioning for being totally wrong) that the balance of risk is towards a very low extent. Only two weeks for the May PIOMAS results.




17
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 18, 2017, 08:25:55 PM »
So while all this crap is going on, who is looking after the shop?

18
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 18, 2017, 04:02:29 PM »
Everything is a huge hoo-hah about who did what and when and who knew. The reality is that Russia has won, if the mission was to cripple the US Government.

A dysfunctional White House is now a non-functioning White House.
A dysfunctional Congress is now a non-functioning Congress.
With the executive and the legislature out of action, only the judiciary left to dispose of.

However much one might abhor the politics of a Republican Legislature and a Trumpian Presidency, given what is going on in the world it is not good for the USA or its allies to have an ungoverned (ungovernable?) US of A.

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 17, 2017, 05:09:16 PM »
Neven. now I know you are deranged. Don't you know? Brawndo's got what plants crave. It's got electrolyte.  ;)j/k

The boss is deranged? Is this NevenGate ?

20
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 17, 2017, 05:06:21 PM »
I think that this is where the USA and its have allies have got to.

NYTIMES
Can Donald Trump Be Trusted With State Secrets?
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
 President Trump at the White House on Tuesday.
He has the legal right to blurt out classified information, but his ignorance, vanity and foolishness endanger the nation.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 17, 2017, 03:07:24 PM »
Predicting oil prices is a mug's game? Risk analysis says at the moment Venezuela most likely to give a price shock.

"How Venezuela Stumbled to the Brink of Collapse" NY Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/14/world/americas/venezuela-collapse-analysis-interpreter.html?_r=0

And for something entirely different ? Marijuana.

The story I heard was that an English Doctor in Cairo in the early years of the last century noted that all the patients in his mental hospital smoked Hashish, and concluded Hashish was the cause of their mental problems and wrote a paper about it. This was presented at an international conference and the participants decided that the drug should be made illegal. (This incidentally deprived the US Treasury of several million dollars p.a. in import duties).

True? Je ne sais pas.





22
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 17, 2017, 02:23:45 PM »
Coal jobs pay more than wind and solar jobs.  Plus most coal miners live close to the mine and their families have lived there for generations.  Many of those people don't want to go elsewhere for work.

For the most part their houses and land are worthless.  There's no one to buy them out if they want to leave.

Other than the odd flat-topped mountain (Thanks, Mr. Peabody) there aren't a lot of place that are good for large solar.  And there aren't big transmission lines. 

These are basically parts of the US that people will abandon over the next 50 or so years. Young people with ambition already leave.  As time goes along there will be no infrastructure. No grocery stores, no health facilities, ....  The last few old folks will die in place or get moved out to a nursing home by their kids who no longer live there.  Forests will reclaim the area.

Hullo Bob,
To answer your points:-
A job is better than no job, especially if it is skilled.
Everybody drives in the USA. A job up to 50 miles away from home is doable.
There are all sorts of solar and wind projects from individual houses, small communities, large communities and cities etc etc.
Smart energy grid management can work well managing energy ins and out from many different locations with modest transmission lines. There are places that are moving away from a few large power plants with massive interconnectors to a much more distributed system. Horses for courses.

A future where we all live in megacities totally divorced from the natural world may well be where the powers that be are pushing us. Yuk.

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 17, 2017, 02:09:02 PM »
Does the new name "renewable energy" mean I can post about Red Bull - which is supposed to renew energy ? (sorry)

24
Policy and solutions / Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« on: May 17, 2017, 02:06:24 PM »
I am sure most people noticed the little incident a few days ago at Hanford Nuclear Waste Site in Washington State.

Eventually the penny dropped - and I remembered that I had done some research on the sorry history of that place after British Nuclear Fuels gave up their contract to fix the problems there and a contract manager for Halliburton said it wasn't fixable. I have lost all that research, but here is a 2015 article from Time magazine.

http://time.com/3672177/hanford-radioactive-waste-history/

I wonder if anything has changed.  Nuclear is dangerous because humans are looking after it. I do not love nuclear power, Mr. Hansen.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 17, 2017, 01:36:41 PM »
A quote from meddoc's post

"Meanwhile the Nares Opening seems to be cracking open the MYI in the CAB like an egg's crust." (the images are impressive).

My (stupid?) question is "Is there any significant MYI left in the Lincoln Sea?". I ask this as the Jaxa sea ice thickness graph has most of the really thick red-colour-coded stuff north of the Queen Elizabeth Islands and in the channels between those islands.

Stupid question no 2 is will the apparently thinner stuff coming into the Nares strait and eventually  to Baffin Bay be easier to flush out ?

Perhaps this post should be in the Nares Strait thread?

Perhaps iceman has answered my questions while I was writing this post?


26
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: May 17, 2017, 01:17:06 PM »
Armyworms: The hungry caterpillar threatening a global food crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/may/16/armyworms-the-hungry-caterpillar-threatening-a-global-food-crisis

The article points to how large-scale mono-culture increases risks to food crops from infestations.

Also shows how maybe the fate of many millions of lives depend on one scientist and his small team.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 16, 2017, 05:23:44 PM »
I was just looking at the ice of Hudson bay and I noticed the southern part is at the same as the Netherlands, but temperatures in the Netherlands are currently 20-25 C, and that happens regularly in may the last couple of years.

And normally ice melts at those temperatures, and I guess Hudson bay has some salinity it melting point will be below 0 C.

Is the difference in temperature purely because of the Gulf Stream/ North atlantic drift? Or has the ice/snow some sort of self-supporting influence? Because then GW can drastically influence that area, can't it?
I'll just add that with expected release of fresher arctic waters into Baffin/Labrador and melt water from Greenland ending up in Labrador, the cold Atlantic anomoly to the south of Greenland will likely expand to the south and east so the differential will shrink.

Hullo Rikw,

I have just been reading wikipedia on Hudson Bay. Fascinating, many unique characteristics making it very different. WORTH A READ. Link below

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hudson_Bay

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 16, 2017, 05:13:26 PM »
Miners are used to working in difficult and sometimes dangerous conditions.
Many are highly skilled engineers, mechanics, electricians et al.
All know how to work with (often highly sophisticated) mechanised systems.

What do we do when an industry like coal is in terminal decline ? We throw the work-force on the scrap heap.
Why? Because the legislators and mine owners in places like West Virginia (and in the UK in the 1980s and 1990s) are too damn thick and too damn greedy to realise that it is the people who are the most valuable asset.

The sun shines and the wind blows in West Virginia. The workforce is there. Everything you need (with a bit of new skills training) to build a renewable energy industry is there. Will it happen? probably not with the idiots from the POTUS down in charge.

ps: One mine owner in West Virginia is building a solar farm on a mountaintop scraped flat for mining.

29
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 16, 2017, 03:13:24 PM »
Remember that meeting at the request of Putin the day after the head of the FBI was fired? That was Putin's men collecting.

Trump revealed highly classified information to Russian foreign minister and ambassador.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-revealed-highly-classified-information-to-russian-foreign-minister-and-ambassador/2017/05/15/530c172a-3960-11e7-9e48-c4f199710b69_story.html

Extract:
President Trump revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador in a White House meeting last week, according to current and former U.S. officials, who said Trump’s disclosures jeopardized a critical source of intelligence on the Islamic State.

The information the president relayed had been provided by a U.S. partner through an intelligence-sharing arrangement considered so sensitive that details have been withheld from allies and tightly restricted even within the U.S. government, officials said.


The article notes this is perfectly legal. The president can declassify documents whenever he wants.  So nothing to see here. It is perfectly legal for the president to reveal national security sources if he wants.

It may be legal but that does not stop it from being dumb. He may have given the Russians sufficient info to let them follow the trail to the source. In the worst case scenario, that could put someone's life at risk. In the best case scenario, the US's allies (and the US intelligence agencies themselves) may / will be reluctant to pass on intelligence of a very sensitive nature to the leaky bucket that is the White House.

A secret shared is no longer a secret.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 16, 2017, 02:58:58 PM »
Jaxa AMSR2 volume finally showing a real drop in volume. A blip or the shape of things to come ?


31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 16, 2017, 11:33:51 AM »
I was just looking at the ice of Hudson bay and I noticed the southern part is at the same as the Netherlands, but temperatures in the Netherlands are currently 20-25 C, and that happens regularly in may the last couple of years.

And normally ice melts at those temperatures, and I guess Hudson bay has some salinity it melting point will be below 0 C.

Is the difference in temperature purely because of the Gulf Stream/ North atlantic drift? Or has the ice/snow some sort of self-supporting influence? Because then GW can drastically influence that area, can't it?
I was taught that NW Europe is blessed with a milder climate because we are on the Western edge of a continent with a nice big ocean sending mild westerly winds towards us and that the north atlantic drift also sends vast quantities of additional heat to our shores.
I also read an article from somwhere a good few years ago saying that on average Hudson Bay is ice-free for one extra day each year (from the satellite record).

32
Hullo Vigilius.

Your leaf is used. The carbon used in its construction is history.i.e. you did not cause that additional carbon.
You are investing in the new economy. Bloomberg  had a good article on how well California is doing by doing the opposite of what Trump wants.

And perhaps most importantly, no kids are going to have an asthma attack from what comes out of your leaf's tailpipe. 40,000 people die every year unnecessarily in London from air pollution. Asthma in kids is a big problem in the UK.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 15, 2017, 07:02:55 PM »
Hullo magnamentis.
You write that the current extent is totally useless on the thread for posting current extent data.

34
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: May 15, 2017, 05:28:19 PM »
From the Guardian (UK)

"Trump is deleting climate change, one site at a time

The administration has taken a hatchet to climate change language across government websites. Here are several of the more egregious examples"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/14/donald-trump-climate-change-mentions-government-websites

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 15, 2017, 04:38:12 PM »
I thought to myself, (Qu1) how much additional melting from May 14 is required to get to the 2012 or the 2007 sea ice extent minimum. Then I asked myself (Qu2), in previous years, what melting has happened from May 14 to those years' minima. Answer in table below (Jaxa data).

Only in 2012 was the additional melting more than required for 2017 to be a new record minimum, and for the 2007 result only in 2012 and 2007. I also look at the images and data all over ASIF, and yes, they do show what a mess the arctic ice is in. This little table does, however, give some indication of the extent to which the rest of the melting season would have to be out of the ordinary for a record low sea ice extent. ( Needs must I now duck).

Qu1.
 For 2012 Result     8,891,439    
 For 2007 Result     8,003,155    
Qu2.
 Previous Years' Actual melting May 14 to minimum       
1980's Average    6,088,155    
1990's Average    6,373,434    
2000's Average    6,987,172    
2003    6,544,668    
2004    6,324,802    
2005    7,211,275    
2006    6,354,975    
2007    8,141,722    
2008    7,956,679    
2009    7,656,049    
2010    7,723,227    
2011    7,886,188    
2012    9,282,412    
2013    7,811,689    
2014    7,175,806    
2015    7,634,353    
2016    7,276,462    

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 15, 2017, 02:09:57 PM »
we are still 400.000 km2 lower than 2012 and 140.000 km2 lower than 2007 at this time of the year, which were lowest and 3rd lowest ever recorded, so based on that still 'on schedule' for a new record, around 2.6/2.7k km2

Or we are ~800.000 above 2016, so we won't get below 5 million km2 this year.

Or the gap with the 2000's average is halved in 2 months (800k earlier, 400k now), so in 4 months (2*400k) we will be 400k higher than the 2000's average, so around 6 million km2


Just pick the one you want, they are all based on the same set of numbers ;)
But you can look at probabilities of various outcomes by comparing required melting for an outcome against historical actual melting rates. I think that has some validity for a risk analysis.  But I am too lazy to do it.


37
Policy and solutions / Re: Boring, boring ol' Elon Musk...
« on: May 13, 2017, 09:18:09 PM »
Not so many years ago often the journey was of greater value (on many levels) than the journey. You can keep your sanforised and deodorised tunnels. I, dinosaur, have spoken.

38
What about people leaving their houses and going to a place to meet people and eat together?

39
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 11, 2017, 09:36:17 PM »
Terry,
Ne

As you know very well Nevil Shute did write the epilogue. I read "on the beach" as a teenager just after the cuba missile crisis. Living only 60 kms from London my parents only discussed how we were going to die -  quick or slow. And then we had Dr Strangelove.

All we need now is for Dr Strangelove to become part of the Trump team to finish the job.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 11, 2017, 04:36:43 PM »
I did say "as far as extent is concerned" in my post. I believe that is called a caveat. It is also about only one year. Extent is also the only internally  consistent set of data for the entire satellite record since 1979.

Impossible ? The US ceebees have a saying "the difficult now, the impossible may take a little longer".

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 11, 2017, 04:26:18 PM »
Ancient tools... are you talking about the sextant, or an apparatus mounted on a satellite?
Captain Cook did very well with a sextant and a chronometer. Many months and many thousands of miles after leaving England, his calculation of lat & long of Port Vila harbour is only one or two kilometers out of position.
On the 2017 melting thread I have also pointed to the somewhat laggardly start to the melting season. Extent will always be the main way info on arctic sea ice melt will be presented to an indifferent public.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 11, 2017, 11:30:34 AM »
Meanwhile, jaxa May 10 extent up by 15,000 km2. That is 10 days and very nearly 700,000 km2 behind 2016, and 5th lowest in the satellite record. And yesterday AMSR2 volume ticked up a bit. That is a lot to make up in the remainder of the melting season.

On the other hand, the latest from robertscribbler.com confidently predicts significant arctic warming events in the next few days, and ASIF is full up images of the mess the ice cap is in.

But as of today as far as extent is concerned 2017 is a very ordinary year.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but, the United States
« on: May 10, 2017, 08:52:52 PM »
Good article in bloomberg view about california leads us economy away from Trump. Shows how dumb Trump and his acolytes really are. (On my cell-phone and do not know how to copy url from another window into this post. But well worthwhile giving it a read)

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 10, 2017, 04:07:25 PM »
Ah, but from PIOMAS, volume is way down. At low thickness levels the light can go though the ice and warm the water underneath, causing both top and bottom melt at the same time.

And don't forget those pesky leads.

So many variables, so little space in my head to fit them all in.

I restricted my comment to one variable only as of today and an indication of required melt from today simply because there is so much else going on that would suggest the ice cap is liable to fall apart, but on this variable so far hasn't.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 10, 2017, 03:38:16 PM »
Meanwhile, Jaxa May 9 2017 sea ice extent is 600,000 km2 more than May 9 2016, (that is 9 days behind). 600,000 km2 of ocean is reflecting most solar radiation as opposed to absorbing most solar radiation than at this day last year. The positive feedback from increased insolation is, therefore, as of today, somewhat less than last year.

Given that the insolation season is well underway, and is of little import after August, to equal last year's increased positive feedback from insolation would require a daily sea-ice extent loss well above that of last year. Since the last week of April, daily sea extent loss is far below that of 2016.



46
Policy and solutions / Re: James Hansen loves nuclear power
« on: May 10, 2017, 12:39:50 PM »
I'm guessing no one saw this coming....

Hanford Nuclear Site Evacuated After Tunnel Collapses
Tunnel Collapse at Nuke Site Prompts Emergency

A tunnel collapsed at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in Washington state, with rail cars full of nuclear waste inside. ...

The tunnel was reportedly full of train carrying radio active waste material.

Officials said no release of radiation was detected and no workers were injured.

An emergency evacuation was ordered Tuesday at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in Washington state after a storage tunnel at the plutonium finishing plant collapsed.

According to an emergency report from Hanford, the alert was triggered after a routine inspection detected that soil had caved into a tunnel over an area of about 20 feet by 20 feet next to the Plutonium Uranium Extraction Facility, also known as the PUREX.

The cave-in occurred at the junction of two tunnels to the east of the facility. The tunnels were used beginning in the 1950s to store contaminated equipment.
...
https://weather.com/news/news/hanford-washington-nuclear-power-plant-evacuated
An old tunnel more or less forgotten about?  Human error ? Lack of maintenance and inspections ?

Humans cannot be trusted with this stuff, especially given the immensely long time-frames involved.


47
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: May 09, 2017, 04:53:35 PM »
Russia gets on with it while Washington D.C. drowns in blah blah.

Russia showcases Arctic hardware in Red Square military parade
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-wwii-anniversary-russia-parade-idUSKBN1850XO

48
IMHO Rosby waves slowing down may have contributed to the mess...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/flood-quebec-ontario-1.4098915



I'm not that far west of Toronto & didn't notice a thing.


FWIW
I'll be dining with a Chinese gal on the 10th that keeps in touch with her parents, not impossible she'd have inside info?
 440mm in 7 hours should have made some kind of splash. :-[


Terry


Read all about it:- (yes you have to go to New Delhi TV to read about rain in China)

http://www.ndtv.com/offbeat/video-chinese-couple-gets-married-despite-rain-flooding-wedding-venue-1691371

49
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: May 09, 2017, 03:09:49 PM »
Meanwhile,

Measles is coming back, due to declining vaccination rates. In the USA a British disgraced doctor is peddling the MRI vaccine / Autism connection. He was struck off in 1998 in the UK. Apparently Trump is inclined to believe this con-man.

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/measles-outbreak-minnesota-caused-vaccine-skeptics-n756246
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39419976

So far the Trump legacy could be described as:-

How to reduce life expectancy and increase infant mortality?

Repeal Obamacare and reduce vaccination coverage of infants.
Make it OK to pollute the air, the groundwater and the soil.
Increase CO2 concentrations to the point food supply is compromised.

To me, it sort of makes Russiagate and just about everything else seem trivial.

50
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: May 09, 2017, 02:48:30 PM »
Greenland melt continues (May 7 nsidc images)


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