This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.
This is a wedge-like intrusion of ocean that is trying to reach the Bering Strait,
"...the Arctic turns into a single gyre"?
There hasn't even been a gyre lately. Instead the ice in the Arctic Basin has been blown from the Russian side and compressed against the Canadian side, with some leaking out towards the Atlantic...
The good news is that the compression has helped to heal the Beaufort Sea back to around a 2 metre thickness.
But what if the tear-and-compression continues well into April or May? Will large stretches of water remain open on the Russian side, efficiently absorbing the peak insolation around the Summer solstice?
A broader question is why so much compression? Is there enough thin and weak ice this year in the Arctic Basin that any wind pressure from the Russian side will always result in movement and compression? And is this movement replacing the Beaufort gyre of seasons past, with the ice now compressing rather than transferring the force for rotation?
If so, does this mean that maximum Arctic sea ice volume for the year has descended this season to a transition value, or even a tipping point, where the ice will continue to tear-and-compress from the Russian side heading into the Summer melt season, with the Russian side therefore opening up anomalously early?
Or, instead, will the movement damp down within a few weeks and those consequences won't come to pass this year?
Either way, the plot twists and turns of the melt season are going to provide us with riveting viewing.
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?
This will be my (and I suspect some others) first melting season so it'd be nice to know what to expect in general, as well as what to watch coming from such an extreme freezing season.
@HyperionThe circulation exists anticlockwise over the arctic one and the Antarctic clockwise still at the 70hpa about 18km. Above that the arctic one has a clockwise up to 270 kmph vortex. Possibly its high altitude outflow. Certainly the only point in the 10hpa world colder than below it. But intermeshed is a raging anticlockwise spool winding in a jet from the equator that passes 1.5 times around the planet. I'm hypothesising a mechanism may exist for that one assisting spawning the nth Atlantic new ones that keep forming directly beneath it.
The circulation patterns over the Arctic match all the way up to 250 hpa, but change between there and 70 hpa.(If I am looking at it, wrong please correct me) If you have the mslp button on, while on Earth NS it makes it appear to match higher and will read wrong sometimes even after you turn it off. Still I find it pretty remarkable that the patterns match all the way up to jet stream height. Not saying that has never happened at all, but I don't recall seeing it. Anyone have a clue as to what this might mean?
Based on the behavior of this freeze season, the single most salient characteristic of the approaching melt season will be mobility of the ice. We have seen this all winter and it will only get more obvious.
It is kind of nice being on the other end for a change. I usually get accused of being the dramatic one. Others are always telling me, "it's not that bad." Well, maybe it just is.
That being the case, excellent point made by Hyperion.
Norwegians have nicked the polar vortex to provide wind for electricity generation for their electrical vehicles programme. Mind you, they are also opening up new oil fields in the Barents.
Somewhat strong export over the next week. It is already hurting the concentration in the ESS and Chukchi, due to what has been pushed out to the Bering Sea.
CLICK IMAGE PLEASE
Stupid question follow on...
What is the estimate for the total flow into and out of the Arctic basin, in KM3 of water?
The reason I ask is, salt purge out of freezing ice is only going to be a small fraction of the volume of ice melted (which is going to be less than 6000 or so KM3 a season). If we presume 10% of that - or 600KM3/year, what fraction would that be of the total circulation?
Point I'm making here is, is the refreeze really what's driving the circulation?
According to wikipedia total flow out of the Arctic is about 11 Sverdrups.
( A sverdrup) is equivalent to 1 million cubic metres per second (264,000,000 USgal/s). The entire global input of fresh water from rivers to the ocean is equal to about 1.2 sverdrup.
Therefore a Sverdrup is equivalent to 1/1000th of a Km^3. So in a day the outflow is approx 8640 * 11 / 1000 Km^3. per day so about 95 Km^3 per day. The inflow from rivers would be at best 100th of this so the rest must come from the Atlantic and Pacific.
600Km^3 therfore amounts to about 2% of the flow.