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Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: July 20, 2017, 10:26:49 PM »
Maybe the difference has to do with DMI being about surface mass, while NSIDC is about surface melt? Or maybe one interpreted precipitation as rain and the other as snow. I have no idea, I don't follow Greenland melt all that much. But there could be another spike, as the forecast is for warm, sunny weather over much of Greenland in days to come.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 20, 2017, 09:56:39 PM »
I also have this feeling that holes could start to show up in the ice pack real fast, once they get going. But for now, this year isn't looking anything like 2016, 2015, or even 2013. Here's a comparison using Uni Hamburg AMSR2 sea ice concentration maps:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 19, 2017, 08:53:03 PM »
would be good news if it were true while the exact opposite is the case IMO. looking at the entire remaining ice as a whole, compactness is poorest ever and meltponds are water ON ice and for that the ice most be relatively homogeneous and "compact" which it is not and besides other factors meltwater is often draining throuch fissures and holes.

ice is fragmented like never before which is the opposite of compact.

i will happily stand corrected but let's see.

You're not correct and need to do more comparing. Start here, Uni Bremen comparison maps for July 19th. Look for yellow and green in 2012, 2007, 2015 and 2016. Now compare to this year.

BTW it would be nice if we could have a link of the source for "high compaction" for further assessment of accuracy and reliability of that source.

Here's the Regional Graphs page on the ASIG, which contains a Wipneus graph with Uni Hamburg, JAXA and NSIDC compactness. As you can see, this year is highest for NSIDC and JAXA, but third highest for Uni Hamburg (highest resolution), not much above 2012.

This makes interpreting NSIDC area/extent tricky at best. It is entirely possible that reduced melt ponds due to increased fragmentation may be a negative feedback, slowing melt. Or, it may be the opposite. I haven't seen anything beyond speculation to resolve this important question.

Conventional wisdom tells us that years with high compactness ratios generally don't break records. At some point conventional wisdom no longer applies. We don't know if that point has been reached this year. Doesn't look like it to me, but you never know (volume is still record low, according to PIOMAS).

The current weather forecast is perfect for ice retention. Conventional wisdom says that at some point this will cause hiccups in extent decrease. Greenland surface melt may show a spike though:

Cenk Uygur from The Young Turks on the Bernie Sanders' wife investigation. BTW, I didn't know that the FBI opened this investigation after some Trump idiot in Vermont claiming that there had been fraud. And then, of course, journalists from the Washington Post and NY Times run with that BS because they're Hillarybots. It's exactly the way climate risk deniers operate. Disgusting.

Any Merit To Investigation Of Bernie Sanders's Wife?

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The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 18, 2017, 08:43:01 PM »
I don't know if Greenwald's arguments have been superseded by new revelations, but I always find it interesting to listen to what he thinks:

Glenn Greenwald: Donald Trump Jr.'s Emails Aren't a "Smoking Gun" or Evidence of Criminal Collusion

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Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 18, 2017, 08:11:59 PM »
I wonder if we'll see another century break tomorrow and the day after, given the 'stall' in the Uni Hamburg AMSR2 and NSIDC data as reported by Wipneus. JAXA is less jittery, but if there are no big drops reported elsewhere today, the series may come to an early end (never mind the fact that yesterday didn't see a century break, still 6 out of 7).

No big drops reported elsewhere, so JAXA will probably follow suit.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: July 18, 2017, 07:09:19 PM »
Mind you, by an ironic conincidence, "less than 1 million km2 of ice extent"  is almost exactly 15% of the average 1990s summer minimum...

Ha, I was wondering about that. Thanks, Peter.

this currently widely spread interpretation has IMO been made up by people who cannot wait till it happens and hence bended the rules/terms to their liking.

1 mio km2 is definitely NOT ice-free, no matter what anyone tries to tell us.

I like to say 'ice-free for all practical purposes', after hearing Walt Meier putting it like that once.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: July 18, 2017, 04:17:44 PM »
Well, I'll be. Don't know how we managed to forget about those. Thanks, Tor. GAC and PAC added now.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: July 18, 2017, 02:46:32 PM »
From the Melting Season thread:

Given that <15% SIE represents an Ice Free Arctic, can anyone tell me what the actual figure would relate to 15% and how much was year 2012 greater than this figure.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 18, 2017, 09:28:19 AM »
I've been noticing those holes on the Atlantic side for a couple of days now, and am quite amazed by it. It must be the effect of the cyclones so far, as that's the kind of weather this part of the Arctic has mostly seen. Very similar to last year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 18, 2017, 08:35:11 AM »
I wonder if we'll see another century break tomorrow and the day after, given the 'stall' in the Uni Hamburg AMSR2 and NSIDC data as reported by Wipneus. JAXA is less jittery, but if there are no big drops reported elsewhere today, the series may come to an early end (never mind the fact that yesterday didn't see a century break, still 6 out of 7).

I think you are probably correct.  But I stuck with the 3.75-4.25 range out of sheer inertia. 

Thanks to all those century breaks (which you predicted!) the predict-o-matic is back down into the area of overlap between your guess and mine. But I would bet that within a few days it will have drifted back up out of "my" range.

This is fun.

Thanks to the overlapping bins, we can both be right.  ;)

But I can't wait to see if the century breaks keep rolling in, despite that persistent low over the CAB. Uni Hamburg AMSR2 and NSIDC suggest no for now, but my impression is there's still a lot of weak ice on the periphery.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 17, 2017, 09:52:54 AM »
... what?  This forum's OK with casual racism now?

I don't know if it's racism, but it's certainly a failed attempt at humour.

In the meantime we await that triple century break.  ;)

Edit: Upon further reflection, after reading the complaints people sent me, I've decided to redact the offensive part of Hyperion's post.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 16, 2017, 10:21:50 PM »
The forecasts keep shifting, which is why I haven't posted them recently. One thing that keeps coming back is high pressure on the Siberian side of the Arctic. I can't remember high pressure being so dominant over there (although I'm sure it's happened more often over the last 10 years, I just don't remember it). Usually that's where cyclones dominate.

But here's today's 12Z ECMWF forecast (Tropical Tidbits) for the coming six days. The high over the Beaufort Sea is said to disappear on D3, and high pressure over the Siberian Seas should start to diminish 1-2 days later, with low pressure dominating much of the CAB.

But this forecast could change again tomorrow morning. Either way, high pressure over Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev and Kara is going to mean bye-bye for a lot of ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 16, 2017, 10:02:51 PM »
Hi Neven, did you have those images saved, or is there a way on the site to get the image for 2016? (high quality)

Some I have saved, others I have retrieved from ASI updates over the years on the blog.

I like DMI SST maps, because they're quite detailed and make it possible to compare with other years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 16, 2017, 01:17:59 PM »
I think the heat is on now on the pacific side of the CAB. This doesn't look like a "mood" for me of the Bremen graph, there's too much green already.

No, this is real, Uni Hamburg AMSR2 shows it too. There's a lot of melting potential there, and given the 'piggy bank' ice in the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and Baffin Bay, I'm expecting the series of JAXA century breaks to continue for a while longer.

Here's a comparison of DMI SST anomalies for 2012 (left), 2016 (middle) and 2017 (right) for July 15th. I would say that 2017 is well ahead of 2012 on the Pacific side, slightly behind on the Atlantic, and I'm somewhat surprised that no red still hasn't shown up in the Laptev Sea this year. The story for 2017 vs 2016 is the same, except that 2016's lead on the Atlantic side was much larger. But given the current forecast, with persistent high pressure on the Siberian side of the Arctic, 2017 might still catch up.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 16, 2017, 10:20:54 AM »
At this rate the Northern Sea Route could be open before the month is out.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 15, 2017, 10:04:19 AM »
I wonder whether the series will be continued, or if we're going to see some 'unflashing'.

Well, the lawn never had a lot of nutrients to begin with (as it used to be a corn field), but I use the clippings as mulch around bushes and trees. But not every time. Like Sigmetnow, I also use a stick to keep the back flip open.

And on around half of the mowing area I just let things grow and only mow twice with scythe.

Policy and solutions / New ideas for carbon capture
« on: July 14, 2017, 11:31:25 AM »
This thread was opened by Jontenoy in the wrong category. I wanted to move it here, but accidentally removed it. Fortunately it was still in my cache. Here's Jontenoy's text:


Most discussions seem to be about reducing emissions. This is all fine except it is not going to happen fast enough. I think a possible solution would be to develop a vegetable with the following attributes :
* Has deep roots
* Produces food (grains, leaves, stalks etc)
* Keeps growing downwards
* Spreads rapidly

This would produce a vast tangle of treadlike roots which would capture and store carbon. If it died, a new plant could continue and grow around the old roots. Clover fixes Nitrogen. This would fix Carbon in the soil as biomass.  Some grape vines and Olive trees have roots greater than 40 metres deep.
The same idea could be considered for the ocean whereby algae would form, reproduce and die on a continuous basis.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 13, 2017, 11:18:26 PM »
You can say that again, Comradez (nice video again, BTW).

Here's from Wipneus' AMSR2 thread:

And this animation:

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 13, 2017, 11:09:20 PM »
There was nothing specific about the material.

Right, thanks.

-- But Goldstone made clear the Russian govt is behind it. So, we have reached the point to discuss the legal definition of treason.

As far as I know the US isn't at war with Russia, and so you'll have to use another word for this. Or not you, the media rather.

But are the Trumps corrupt to the bone? No doubt about it.

Most likely the "but her emails" thingy we all keep hearing about.

Where do you keep hearing about that? I don't believe the MSM really discussed the content of the leaked mails much, or for a stretched period of time. Not that they have to talk about it now. The election is over, so no one has to choose between Trump and Clinton. They're all corrupt, as far as I am concerned. We live in an oligarchy/kleptocracy.

I just wondered if 'dealings with Russia' was referring to something other than the uranium deal.

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 13, 2017, 10:48:31 PM »
I've just watched some of the news stories on this, and I have a possibly stupid question: In that e-mail to Junior that Goldstone guy said they have some confidential material that would 'incriminate Hillary and her dealings with Russia'. So, what dealings are they talking about? Is that the uranium deal thingy?

Speaking of which, I'm quite satisfied with my Makita EV lawnmower (I promised to report). It seems a bit less strong than it was at first, but maybe that's because it's been raining a lot over here, causing the grass to grow a bit too high.

But there are a lot less stalls compared to the corded Makita I had before (because of grass getting stuck). It's much lighter, I can easily carry it. And it's made of plastic which makes it easier to clean. The corded Makita was made out of painted metal, with of course the metal wearing off (getting who knows where).

Downside is range, meaning I have to stop and wait for the batteries to get charged again. Buying an extra set of batteries is a bit too expensive for me right now. And the thing in the back that catches the grass, fills up halfway and then things get clogged, so I have to move the grass back in order to fill it up completely.

But all in all I'm very satisfied, and I just hope the EV lawnmower does its job for at least 3 years. Maybe next year I'll buy an extra set of batteries. It'd be cool if I could also use those batteries for an E-bike or something (Makita has one, but it's a bit small).

PS Makita also has a battery-powered leaf blower, numerobis.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 13, 2017, 02:18:58 PM »
This is the kind of stuff that can bring Trump and the GOP down:

Congressmen Repealing Obamacare Now Buying Health Insurance Stocks

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Thanks for further explaining where you're coming from, pileus. I still feel that you are contradicting yourself somewhat, but then again, who doesn't.

Whether there is a physical uprising/revolution or just a political one, it has to start with indignation and anger, and then this anger/indignation needs to be channelled towards something productive. My fear is that the Democratic Party, as some say, is only there to absorb this energy and then neutralize it.

Hence the need for Corporate Democrats to be removed from their positions, and the need for drastic reform of how the Democratic Party functions.

This is probably the fastest way to change and some real opposition to the GOP.

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: July 13, 2017, 09:26:04 AM »
Winter has arrrived & it's cold here, too cold to work outside. So time to look at gardening online:
Here's a pic & link to the Inuvik Community Greenhouse 200 mile inside the Arctic Circle:

For a second I thought that was your greenhouse, Clare!  :o

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: July 12, 2017, 06:26:53 PM »

Okay, that's enough.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 12, 2017, 04:55:10 PM »
Let's keep it on-topic as possible, and as short as possible. And let's try to add images.

People come here for quick info on how the melting season is progressing as we speak. Not to read a book.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 12, 2017, 12:16:39 PM »
Bill Maher: This is why Trump will win again in 2020
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I simply think it's a misread of the US system and it's populace if you think you can "kick out" the corporatists.  It's not going to happen.  The excesses, inequality and fraud all need to addressed, no argument there.  I would suggest it would be more productive and successful to influence and win the logical and policy arguments to your points of view with the corporatists, not declare war on them and attack them as less than human.  People and groups with deep vested interests tend to dig in, defend, and push back when attacked.  And they have tons of resources and motivation to persist.

But cheers and best of luck in these efforts.  I'm perfectly OK if you think I support the corporatists.  I've proudly backed the Clintons since the early 90s and will continue to do so.

Thanks for the explanation, but basically you're saying it's hopeless. I mean, I assume that you find Arctic sea ice loss and AGW in general serious issues. Kicking out the corporatists is impossible, as is 'successfully influencing and winning the logical and policy arguments to your points of view with them', because their only logic and policy arguments is to serve the interests of the donors.

You'll never get anywhere that way, if only for the fact that a) it's pushing the Republicans even further to the right (as they have to differentiate themselves from Republican-lie Democrats) and b) it's a winning strategy for Republicans, because people see through the Republican-lite BS and don't trust you.

So, basically it's hopeless. If I would think it's hopeless, I wouldn't be spending so much time on keeping the ASIB and ASIF going. And you're still here too, so I have to assume that somehow you don't believe everything's hopeless either. But I do wonder how you manage to juggle these dumbbells in your head.

I can't do that. I have to believe there is a way for the people to get rid of Trump and the GOP and Corporate Democrats, and take power back.

A month ago it was predicting 4.2 IIRC, and a week ago that had dropped to 4.1.  At that point I could have gone with either the 3.75-4.25 range or the 4.0-4.5 for this month's poll. For various qualitative reasons I decided to go with the lower range.  Now at 4.3 the mean estimate from the predict-o-matic is (slightly) outside the range I chose.  Argh.

Ned, you still have one day left to change your vote.

Given the current slowdown in JAXA SIE decrease, I'm going up one bin to 'Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km2'.

For the record, I have no great love for the Clintons. I'm glad they're off the world stage, and hope it stays that way (hear me, Chelsea?).

Sorry to disappoint you, Jim.  ;)

Hillary. Won't. Go. Away.
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I know this thread is here to discuss the problem of Corporate Democrats, but as a disingenious, implied argument was made by pileus that Bernie Sanders and his wife are supportive of crony capitalists because his wife failed to expand the college she worked for and resigned 6 years ago, hence no better than Corporate Democrats, hence no need to replace Corporate Democrats, so the flow of donor money is assured that is an absolute prerequisite to beat the GOP, I justwanted to point out that it seems that the WaPo article that was linked to by pileus, is erroneous:

EXPOSED: Bernie Sanders Slandered By Washington Post AGAIN
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Great, the disingenuous, implied argument is based on faulty information at best, and misinformation at worst. Way to go, pileus. I get why you support Corporate Democrats.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 11, 2017, 02:08:31 PM »
<snip; I need to shut up; N.  ;) >

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 11, 2017, 08:02:23 AM »
Are we sure about the reliability of any data sources?

It's not just about the reliability per se. It's also about whether a data set can be used for interannual comparisons. Is it consistent enough, or have changes been made along the way?

Assuming that all of that is true, what does it say? That in the worst case, Bernie Sanders' wife is an incompetent administrator and now she's out of a job (edit: she resigned 6 years ago). How is that crony capitalism? Where are the millions of dollars that this 1%-er is stealing off of the people by outsourcing their jobs, making them addicted, building prisons to put them in, pushing illegal wars to sell weapons and destroying homeowners through derivatives? Where are crony capitalists Jane and Bernie Sanders doing that?

Here you go, the definition of crony capitalism from Wikipedia:

Crony capitalism is an economy in which businesses thrive not as a result of risk taken for them, but rather, as a return on money amassed through a nexus between a business class and the political class. This is done using state power to crush genuine competition in handing out permits, government grants, special tax breaks, or other forms of state intervention[1][2] over resources where the state exercises monopolist control over public goods, for example, mining concessions for primary commodities or contracts for public works. Money is then made not merely by making a profit in the market, but by profiteering by 'rent seeking' using this monopoly or oligopoly. Entrepreneurship and innovative practices, which seek to reward risk are stifled, since the value-add is little by crony businesses as hardly anything of significant value is created by them, with transactions taking the form of 'trading'.

Now, explain to us the relationship between what Jane Sanders allegedly did, and crony capitalism. Good luck with that.

Or are you just posting this to argue that no, we don't need a plan, we just leave the Corporate Democrats where they are so they can get the money from corporate donors to sponsor the We're-Not-Them-campaign? And then we'll beat the Red Team, yay.

Or are you just smearing Sanders because you're a fan of Corporatism? What are you even doing on this forum?

I will leave this thread to others to try to fix crony capitalism in the interim.

If you want to fix crony capitalism, you first have to get it out of the Democratic Party! That's what this whole thread is about!

As for plan vs no plan, here's the wonderful Naomi Klein laying it out (and kicking British 'journalist' ass along the way, watch the whole thing if you have time):

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 10, 2017, 10:44:21 PM »
Are we sure about ACNFS being such a reliable source to be able to make such comparisons?

Thanks, per the linked fivethirtyeight article, the Dems have a good short at taking back Congress in 2018, if we just keep the resistance up:

So, you don't really need a plan, you just have to say: We're not them?

What is it? Plan or no plan?

I agree that if you don't need a plan, you can keep the Corporate Democrats where they are and still win. And if winning is all you're interested in, then that's great.

That is: Assuming the polls and pundits are correct. How did that go last time?

And yes, Trump is corrupt to the bone. I'm sure he's colluding with all kinds of oligarchs/kleptocrats. Unfortunately, he's not the only one. If you want a cabinet without Goldman Sachs people, you need to do more than just 'resist'.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 10, 2017, 09:32:44 PM »
Remember everyone, two more days to vote on the JAXA daily minimum and NSIDC September average polls. You can still vote (or change your vote).

so we need a plan that will get traction for the 2018 mid-term elections, that will energize the base.

Brilliant idea. Now, who has been energizing the base recently, and what is his platform? Oh right, Corporate Democrats are doing everything they can to keep that stuff in the can and under the carpet. Look everyone, a Russian squirrel!

But there are some fantastic slogans out there already that are sure to energize the base:

Democrats New Slogan Appears Written By The Onion
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Keep in mind that most young people want the second strategy, and this is about their future.

If a child reaches down to grab a 'snake in the grass', it is a parent's obligation to hold back the child, even if the child wants the freedom to play with whatever it wants.

Maybe the parent shouldn't have put the snake there in the first place, so that it doesn't have to teach the child to always conform to the wishes of old people who totally screwed up in the first place, leading to the child becoming indifferent, despondent and disengaged?

their shareholder value would drop and evaporate a significant portion of the pensions savings of many citizens. So, it is not just a threat to particular corporations.

So, obviously there needs to be an incremental approach in re-forming U.S. health insurance. Obamacare was the first step. While small, one for the history books. "Progressives" should not turn this into historical ballast, while it actually floats much of the resistance against the Republican agenda.  (Guess what, without millions of protesters knowing their Obamacare (possibly under a different name) the GOP would by now have their health care bill through, and America one step further down the spiral...) hmmmm etc. repeating myself.

But by your own logic that would be great for shareholder value and pension savings of old people, right?

And you accuse others of spreading Republican memes...   :P :D

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 10, 2017, 03:02:41 PM »
The last sentense: the point will sure be reached, and is already reached, in _some_ locations of ASI. Parts of ESS and Beaufort are at the point right now, for example. On the other hand, i doubt your last sentense here relates to Arctic as a whole (please correct me if i'm wrong here), - like, i could hardly imagine _whole_ CAB reaching said point this season.

Therefore, clarification of your statement would be helpful: which exactly parts (= regions) of "ice" in the Arctic you mean when you say that it's unknown whether ice will get so thin that it will simply disappear no matter other influences? A list would be perfect. If possible, of course. :)

With regards to this year, I mean in so many regions that the minimum record is broken. In general, I mean when the Arctic reaches ice-free conditions for all practical means (below 1 million km2).

The idea is that thickness at some point becomes so low that the influence of traditional factors (like wind, air temperature, insolation, etc) is irrelevant. When that happens across a large enough part of the ice pack, we'll have records, no matter what.

Volume was presumably low after this winter. I don't know if it is low enough for this year to break records no matter what (doesn't look like it though).

I'm not saying anything new here, of course.

Arctic sea ice / MOVED: Fish and sea ice
« on: July 10, 2017, 02:54:02 PM »

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 10, 2017, 02:51:45 PM »
Jimmy Dore is a commentator, not a presenter of facts or scoops. He's very clear about his opinions, vision and agenda.

Chomsky thinks the GOP is the most dangerous organization in human history.

Title: “Noam Chomsky - The Most Dangerous Organization in Human History”

And that's absolutely try. Our discussion here is whether we should unite behind Corporate Democrats so that enough money can be generated through corporate donors to defeat the greater evil that is also sponsored by corporate donors. Or whether we try to make a clean sweep, using small donations and technology (social media) to unseat both, like Trump did in a way.

I think that most people here agree that the second strategy would be the best. In theory at least. But some will say it can never be done. I think if people would let go of these fears and beliefs that the first strategy offers the best chances of victory, the second strategy might actually become a possibility.

Keep in mind that most young people want the second strategy, and this is about their future.

Policy and solutions / Re: City or countryside : which direction ?
« on: July 10, 2017, 10:30:48 AM »
We could also genetically alter humans, making them smaller.  ;D

Or as the Genesis song goes:

It's said now that people will be shorter in height,
They can fit twice as many in the same building site.
(they say it's alright),

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 09, 2017, 08:50:03 PM »
Trump tweet.

"Putin & I discussed forming an impenetrable Cyber Security unit so that election hacking, & many other negative things, will be guarded.."

Which immediately brings to mind: Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

Policy and solutions / Re: City or countryside : which direction ?
« on: July 09, 2017, 10:53:26 AM »
The direction has always been towards cities. Hence the word civilisation. Cities have always been the hubs of culture and knowledge. But now, because of the Internet, this function has become, or could become virtual. The Internet is the hub now.

So, my suggestion would be to increase access to high-speed Internet in the countryside, so that people who can make a living thanks to computers (such as me, working as a translator) can move away from the cramped and unhealthy confines of the city. And at the same time, work towards making cities less dense, by tearing down old neighbourhoods and replace them with urban agriculture and parks.

My personal opinion currently is that cities are for young people to sow wild oats and find a suitable partner (more difficult to do on the Internet). But everyone over 40 should be forced to move out and start gardening somewhere, especially if they have young children. You know, grow up by growing other stuff.  ;)

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