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Messages - Jim Hunt

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 66
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 18, 2017, 08:40:33 AM »
I'll go out on a (very short) limb and state my opinion that 2017 IJIS extent did indeed bottom out at 4.47 km2 on September 9, for a sixth place finish.


Be careful Jim. I went out on that self same limb a couple of days ago:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-16

2
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 11, 2017, 12:29:18 AM »
Power outages are now over 2.5 million across Florida:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/09/hurricane-irma-power-outages/

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: September 11, 2017, 12:11:59 AM »
Is there a equally recent chart from canadian ice service?


There is indeed:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#Sep-10

In addition, David Cowper has left Cambridge Bay in Polar Bound and is heading east.

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: September 06, 2017, 10:40:39 PM »
2018 Nissan LEAF revealed.


My own take on the new LEAF:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/09/2018-nissan-leaf-revealed/

What gets my goat is all the people hyping the "addition" of V2G to the 2018 model. I even had to give Bobby Llewellyn a dressing down:

https://twitter.com/bobbyllew/status/905354466739724288

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: September 03, 2017, 03:06:37 PM »
I have ex Prof. Judy to thank for the heads up on this open access paper!

"Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends"

Using a combination of station data from Ny-Ålesund and ERA-I, we find a positive trend in extreme cyclone events over the Arctic North Atlantic in winter. This trend is closely associated with the significant winter warming of the region. Composite analyses of extreme storm events at Ny-Ålesund reveal the importance of associated anomalous heat and moisture transports from mid-latitudes for Arctic amplification, in accordance with previous studies. From the observational point of view, we find that Svalbard is located in a key region of climate change, and long-term observations from the Ny-Ålesund station are representative for the broader Arctic North Atlantic region.


Whilst we're on the topic of cyclones, see also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/09/the-2017-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: September 03, 2017, 08:46:48 AM »
The WARM buoy pushpins have been updated. To my ageing eyes it looks like #6 is now free floating:


7
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: September 02, 2017, 02:35:34 PM »
I hate the cacklers!


So does Snow White! She's been inspired to create a somewhat surreal modern Arctic art installation:

"Reductio Ad Absurdum"

8
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 31, 2017, 05:44:23 PM »
Ever sailed to 85N?


See also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/pen-hadows-arctic-mission-to-sail-to-the-north-pole/#comment-223098

It seems Babouchka doesn't count because she didn't only "sail". The absence of a safe return on her part is perhaps a valid point though?

9
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 31, 2017, 11:04:29 AM »
It's easy to cackle if you have people saying they will sail to the North Pole.

The point I was endeavouring to make in my original article was that it was the paragon of journalistic virtue that is the Sunday Times that wrote a headline to that effect above an article that didn't mention the existence of the Arctic Mission web site and its rather more nuanced mission statement.

However Pen Hadow did initially go along with that angle on things far too much for comfort, on the BBC and elsewhere.

10
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 31, 2017, 09:23:56 AM »
You beat me to it Niall!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/pen-hadows-arctic-mission-to-sail-to-the-north-pole/#Aug-31

Cue the cackling from all the usual suspects?

11
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 31, 2017, 08:44:01 AM »
The latest NHC track has Irma becoming "major" on Sunday:

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast and Irma is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 30, 2017, 10:53:40 PM »
Crystal Serenity is now trailing in the wake of two icebreakers:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/crystal-serenity-sails-the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#Aug-30

Heading for the open water?

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 30, 2017, 10:37:51 PM »
The current cyclone train extending from EPAC to the N. Atlantic reminds me a lot of the system that occurred in the winter to keep persistent high SSTs in the Atlantic side.

I'd been wondering aloud along similar lines in the heart of darkness. A fair way out, but:


14
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 30, 2017, 05:24:37 PM »
The current NHC prognosis for Irma:

15
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 30, 2017, 03:46:57 PM »
Irma will officially join in the fun shortly:

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/902876634843406340

NHC will be initiating advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Irma, located west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: August 30, 2017, 03:09:14 PM »
Shock News!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/facts-about-the-arctic-in-august-2017/#comment-223074

The “moderator” at WUWT has finally released my helpful comment from purgatory!!

Something has been lost in translation though :(

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 30, 2017, 12:12:45 PM »
Harvey is finally giving Houston some respite, from the rain if not from the power outages:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-30-1000

Make sure to check out the rainfall radar animation.

18
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 30, 2017, 12:50:56 AM »
Yes, I knew Pen is a person.

My apologies for the misunderstanding!

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 30, 2017, 12:49:30 AM »
The ripples are back:

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 30, 2017, 12:07:22 AM »
The latest update from IMB buoy 2017B:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2017-imb-buoys/#2017B

August 25th is the day before the buoy became "Free Floating":

22
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 29, 2017, 06:31:12 PM »
Will The Pen Hadow be able to get in but not get out?


Pen Hadow is a person. The yachts he chartered are Bagheera and Snow Dragon II.

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/pen-hadows-arctic-mission-to-sail-to-the-north-pole/#Aug-29-PM

They have just breached the 80 degrees north barrier:

23
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 05:11:29 PM »
Meanwhile over on the other side of the Atlantic:

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 29, 2017, 04:33:07 PM »
'Nuff said?


25
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 01:49:53 PM »
Electric power outages have started to increase in Louisiana and New Orleans:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/#Aug-29-1200

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 29, 2017, 12:30:38 PM »
Ice ahoy!

27
Climate scientists disagree.

See this  sequence of "tweets" from Gavin Schmidt:

https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/902317222986743809

Things that are happening now naturally generate questions about precip intensity, hurricane genesis, intensification, statistics etc

These questions might not have easy or straightforward answers. Indeed they are often at the cutting edge of current research.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 29, 2017, 11:41:49 AM »

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 29, 2017, 12:21:50 AM »
How far along is Crystal Serenity?

Cambridge Bay:

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 27, 2017, 11:56:36 PM »
It looks as though the Northwest Passage can finally be declared "open" according to the CIS's criterion:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#Aug-27

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 27, 2017, 06:53:07 PM »
Some wind is rippling the surface of the Northwest Passage.

P.S. Added the next snapshot too:

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 27, 2017, 10:35:31 AM »
It may interest regular readers to learn that after waxing lyrical about "energy storage" for quite some time the UK Government has finally decided to pump some money into vehicle-to-grid technology:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/innovative-vehicle-to-grid-technology-to-receive-20-million

There's also this recent research paper:

Can V2G Improve EV Battery Life?

We show that an EV connected to this smart-grid system can accommodate the demand of the power network with an increased share of clean renewable energy, but more profoundly that the smart grid is able to extend the life of the EV battery beyond the case in which there is no V2G.

33
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 27, 2017, 10:29:12 AM »
Hurricane Harvey: Texas power outages affect more than quarter-million


Outages peaked at ~300,000 yesterday:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-power-outages/

Back down to ~250,000 this morning (UTC)

34
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 25, 2017, 05:46:48 PM »
Is The Hadow going in from the Russian side?

No, but he may possibly be heading for the "Beaufort Bite"?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 25, 2017, 11:14:58 AM »
Pandora 4.8.2 all-platform freeware has gotten a whole lot better at making maps from these netCDF (.nc) files.

I assume you mean Panoply? It still gets the arrows indicating the direction of a swell back to front!

36
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 25, 2017, 10:09:54 AM »
Harvey is now category 2:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/250456.shtml

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 95.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 24, 2017, 11:26:49 PM »
According to the BBC:

A commercial LNG tanker has sailed across the colder, northern route from Europe to Asia without the protection of an ice-breaker for the first time.

The specially-built ship completed the crossing in just six-and-a-half days setting a new record, according to tanker's Russian owners. The 300-metre-long Sovcomflot ship, the Christophe de Margerie, was carrying gas from Norway to South Korea.

The Christophe de Margerie is the world's first and, at present, only ice-breaking LNG carrier. The ship, which features a lightweight steel reinforced hull, is the largest commercial ship to receive Arc7 certification, which means it is capable of travelling through ice up to 2.1m thick. On this trip it was able to keep up an average speed of 14 knots despite sailing through ice that was over one-metre-thick in places.


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 24, 2017, 12:21:05 AM »
The latest dispatch from Queen Maud.

Meanwhile Crystal Serenity is racing towards the Amundsen Gulf!

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 23, 2017, 03:28:08 PM »
Hmmm.  What would be better?


How about a PIOMAS predict-o-matic?

I'll eat my proverbial hat if that bottoms out in August!

P.S. I see Ned is ahead of me on the "Freezing Season" thread.

40
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 23, 2017, 01:30:21 PM »

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 22, 2017, 04:07:53 PM »
So those small yachts in the photo above were choppered in then?

I think you'll find that numerobis was referring to a different image.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 22, 2017, 12:54:36 PM »
Will this strange melting season bring a minimum in August?

I'd hazard an (educated?) guess. No.

Which metric does your "minimum" refer to?

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 22, 2017, 11:40:56 AM »
The buoys are back in town:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2017-imb-buoys/#2017B

2017B is interesting. According to the sounders ice thickness is 92 cm, but the thermistors suggest its an awful lot less than that. More like 30 cm:

44
Arctic Background / Re: Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: August 22, 2017, 12:21:50 AM »

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 21, 2017, 11:39:00 PM »
The CIS have started coverage of the Parry Channel. Here's the latest from Queen Maud:

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 21, 2017, 11:26:46 PM »
This is getting irritating now.


Have you tried Sentinel 1? SAR sees through the clouds :) Albeit not every day :(

http://www.polarview.aq/arctic

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 21, 2017, 07:10:31 PM »
Here's MASIE's view of the current state of play:

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 21, 2017, 07:06:40 PM »
I am waiting for a clapped out vessel full up of nasty stuff operated by a shonky outfit to boldly go where such a heap of junk should not.


Does the Crystal Serenity fit that description?

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 21, 2017, 12:52:29 PM »
Hi Jim, If I remember correctly, the threshold used by CIS was: <= 6/10 concentration along the whole route.

As you can see, when I went to check the link to check my (admittedly ageing!) memory all I got was a 404 error.  I'll see if I can work out where it's moved to.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 21, 2017, 11:27:56 AM »
Interesting to compare current ice conditions with last year's near where these yachts are:


There's a thread dedicated to that sort of thing:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2118

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