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Messages - Jim Hunt

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 25, 2017, 01:07:39 AM »
The sun is now high in the sky. No melt ponds that I can see as yet however:

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 23, 2017, 01:36:18 AM »
Borrowed from the "Buoys" thread, the heart of the Northwest Passage is now above freezing:



Meanwhile north of Utqiaġvik (AKA Barrow) the ice is gradually warming up:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A-Temp

Current Buoy Data (05/22/2017):
Pos: 74.27N, 157.77W
Air Temp: -7.8 C
Air Pres: 1010.8 mb
Snow depth : 12 cm
Ice thickness : 119 cm

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 23, 2017, 01:25:41 AM »
O-Buoy 14 currently reports temperatures above zero:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/05/facts-about-the-arctic-in-may-2017/#comment-221841

Unfortunately her webcam was still shrouded in mist when it last managed to upload an image :(

4
Arctic Background / Re: Dark Snow
« on: May 22, 2017, 10:44:34 AM »
There is this one already:

The Dark Snow Team in Greenland

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 18, 2017, 06:32:31 PM »
Is there a graph (comparing years) that takes out the CAA and everything else that is not really in the Arctic Ocean?

This is derived from Wipneus' AMSR2 numbers. "Arctic Basin" = CAB + Beaufort + Chukchi + ESS + Laptev:

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 18, 2017, 01:40:06 PM »
I saw this surprising chart on Jim's site. I didn't think 2017 was tracking 2016 in this region, was quite sure it was lagging.

Compare and contrast. Beaufort open water is behind last year, balanced by Chukchi & ESS ahead of last year:

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 18, 2017, 02:20:33 AM »
The latest update from IMB buoy 2017A:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/05/facts-about-the-arctic-in-may-2017/#May-17

Current Buoy Data (05/16/2017):

Pos: 74.33N, 157.57W
Air Temp: -6.4 C
Air Pres: 1006.9 mb
Snow depth : 11 cm
Ice thickness : 119 cm

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 17, 2017, 02:19:02 AM »
The first signs of sogginess on the fast ice off the Mackenzie Delta:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#Beaufort

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 16, 2017, 12:05:50 PM »
I am afraid we'll have fun for less than one month with this one...


It takes more than a month to melt a meter of sea ice, especially at this time of year. However that doesn't preclude the buoy freeing itself from the floe long before the ice melts away completely:

"Seasonal ice mass-balance buoys: adapting tools to the changing Arctic


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 13, 2017, 01:29:15 AM »
Looks like the MacKenzie River is starting to flow.


It is indeed, albeit a few days later than last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Mackenzie-Flow

Last year's numbers are still provisional, and will almost certainly be revised downwards ultimately.

11
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: May 08, 2017, 12:43:34 AM »
did NPEO make it up there and put out a buoy farm?


There's no mention of the fact on the NPEO web site, but nonetheless some buoys have been deployed:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017B

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 03, 2017, 09:10:32 AM »
I guess that means the spring thaw is getting underway in the upper reaches of the Mackenzie.


Just about, albeit slightly behind last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/05/facts-about-the-arctic-in-may-2017/

It looks as though breakup is starting in the upper reaches of the Liard River. The Mackenzie flow measurement at the junction with Arctic Red River seems to have gone berserk already though!

http://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/real_time_e.html?mode=Graph&type=&stn=10LC014&startDate=2017-04-01&endDate=2017-05-03&prm1=46&y1Max=&y1Min=&prm2=47&y2Max=&y2Min=

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 30, 2017, 12:06:02 PM »
Funny thing with your animation Romitt, is that that berg disintergrating did not show on my worldview animations of the same days on the last page. Mysterious. Even more so its still there on the 29th imagery today when I check worldview.

If you take a close look at the Terra image for the 28th you can see that two tiles taken at very different times have been pasted together:

https://go.nasa.gov/2ql25sI

Flip to Aqua and the mystery is explained.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 29, 2017, 12:46:19 PM »
Something to do with the extra meltwater?

I assume from his quotation marks that David is implying that much of the extra "sea ice" around Newfoundland is actually ex "glacier ice".

15
Arctic Background / Re: Importance of waves in the Arctic
« on: April 29, 2017, 12:29:03 AM »
Possibly paywalled, but according to The Economist:

The quickest way to break the ice is by submarine. Russian researchers investigate new ways to make waves...

Dr Kozin’s original research was on ways to permit naval submarines to surface safely and quickly through ice, the previous method having been simply to rise until contact was made with the ice sheet and then increase buoyancy until the ice cracked. That, though, is slow and can damage the boat. Dr Kozin found that the bow wave from a submarine travelling close to the surface pushes the ice sheet upwards, making flexural gravity waves in it, which cause it to break up.

Follow-up studies by Dr Kozin and his pupil, Vitaliy Zemlyak, who is now at the Sholem-Aleichem Priamursky State University in Birobidzhan, indicate that a submarine travelling 30 metres below the ice can break a sheet one metre thick. At 20 metres it could break ice two metres thick. And it can do it quickly. Comparable data are not available for Arktika, but America’s heavy icebreaker, Polar Star, can break a channel through two-metre ice at a rate of three knots. A submarine could force such a passage ten times as fast.



16
Developers Corner / Re: The Distributed Arctic Sea Ice Model
« on: April 29, 2017, 12:11:37 AM »
I'm going to out myself now as a former climate modeller.


Intriguing! Which bits of the climate did you used to work on?

What are you interested in doing that is different to what is being done by the supercomputer-using modelling centres?


Modelling sea ice better! Going back to early 2013 it seemed that existing models didn't do terribly well in the "new Arctic". Thinner sea ice, More fragmented and more mobile than in the "old Arctic". Plus my personal hobby horse, open water in the Arctic basin allowing the generation of significant swells.

Is your initial aim just to recreate what they have done so that you can understand it better, and work from there?


Perhaps the University of Hamburg's Planet Simulator covers that base?

Bearing in mind the fast pace of development it is possible to do a lot without a supercomputer, if you are prepared not to be operating at the latest high resolutions.


The "distributed" bit involved conjecturing whether it would be feasible to parallelise climate models in general and sea ice models in particular such that millions of mobile phones and/or Raspberry Pis could be persuaded to act like a supercomputer. As Andrew pointed out above:

Climate simulation algorithms require high bandwidth and low latency interconnects between computing nodes.


Unless of course you know different!

17
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: April 22, 2017, 05:05:26 PM »
The final drift map from Barneo 2017, including comparison with previous years:

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 16, 2017, 12:44:12 PM »
The AMSR2 regional area graphs confirm the effects of the recent anticyclonic winds:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#comment-221417

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 14, 2017, 06:08:55 PM »
Can you explain the attached graph? Is that air temperature, per hour, on the 12th of April?


Wot Crandles said. A more detailed explanation can be found at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/

It's not yet updated with the addition of air temperatures though..

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: April 14, 2017, 09:49:55 AM »
Several other O-Buoys have previously managed to survive the winter. Number 9 for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#OBuoy9

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 14, 2017, 09:31:20 AM »
There's no sign of any activity on the North Pole Environmental Observatory web site, but nonetheless there is now an ice mass balance buoy in situ near the North Pole:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017B

To celebrate I've updated the IMB buoy temperature profiles slightly. The dotted lines at the left show maximum and minimum air temperature over the preceeding 24 hour period. The thermistor 1 reading is now in column 2.

As also reported by the the 2 Degrees North Pole Expedition, it's warming up in the area.

Current Buoy Data (04/12/2017):

Pos: 89.19 N, 30.07 E
Air Temp: -15.56 C
Air Pres: 1020.69 mb
Snow depth : ? cm
Ice thickness : 172 cm

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Operation IceBridge - Arctic Spring 2017
« on: April 12, 2017, 10:52:40 AM »
A set of stunning photographs from Mario Tama, embedded with Operation IceBridge this year:

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/04/above-canada-and-greenland-with-nasas-operation-icebridge/521733/

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 12, 2017, 08:52:02 AM »
Apparently they have replaced it with a new product called Worldview.


Worldview isn't new. It's been around for years:

http://econnexus.org/a-new-world-view-from-nasa/

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 12, 2017, 08:49:37 AM »
The latest Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#Apr-12

Apart from confirming that March monthly extent was lowest in the satellite record there's also this:

New work by an international team led by Igor Polyakov of the University of Alaska Fairbanks provides strong evidence that Atlantic layer heat is now playing a prominent role in reducing winter ice formation in the Eurasian Basin, which is manifested as more summer ice loss. According to their analysis, the ice loss due to the influence of Atlantic layer heat is comparable in magnitude to the top down forcing by the atmosphere.


25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 09, 2017, 01:28:14 PM »
A closer look shows the openings in the Beaufort are freezing over fairly quickly, not really unexpected this time of year, in my humble opinion.

IMHO too. Hence my "as far as AMSR2 is concerned" proviso, and the "in 2016 the early open water mostly refroze over the next couple of weeks" at my link.

26
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: April 09, 2017, 09:22:17 AM »
Barneo is still heading in the general direction of the Fram Strait.

Meanwhile the 2 Degrees North Pole Expedition is heading in the general direction of Barneo, over some rather tricky terrain:

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 09, 2017, 09:16:00 AM »
Open water (as far as AMSR2 is concerned) is appearing in the Beaufort Sea at almost exactly the same time as last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#comment-221357

28
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: April 06, 2017, 09:34:02 AM »
Video of the first An-74 landing on Barneo 2017:

https://youtu.be/nTh02a3SUBo

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: April 05, 2017, 10:32:13 AM »
A couple of previous moonshots:

30
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: April 04, 2017, 11:52:01 AM »
Fresh from the Barneo Facebook page:

Two technical flights of the Antonov-74 from Longyearbyen have landed at Barneo airdrome. It is officially confirmed that the ice runway meets all the standards and Barneo starts 2017 season!

All the team is on the ice constructing the camp. Also two groups of skiers have already arrived at Barneo with the second technical flight. They are going to pass the distance of two degrees to the Pole.

Tomorrow Barneo airdrome will work according to the schedule. Today there is a delay - the skiers who were supposed to fly to Barneo this morning will be there tonight, after the 3rd technical flight.



31
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: April 04, 2017, 11:40:39 AM »
An intriguing artifact at the top of this webcam image in the dead of night:

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 04, 2017, 11:15:23 AM »
According to IMB buoy 2017A it's now sitting on ice over 1 meter thick:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/04/facts-about-the-arctic-in-april-2017/#comment-221215

Current Buoy Data (04/03/2017):

Pos: 72.90 N, 147.10 W
Air Temp: -25.88 C
Air Pres: 1021.52 mb
Snow depth : 9 cm
Ice thickness : 102 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)

Snow surface accumulation: 9 cm
Ice bottom growth : 17 cm

33
Many thanks for all your interesting/burning/critical/constructive comments and questions on our paper and my thoughts.


Many thanks for taking the time and trouble to provide so much input here. I have taken the liberty of reproducing your comment (together with one of Rob's) over at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#comment-221177

I hope that's OK with you both? Please let me know ASAP if not!

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 02, 2017, 03:06:04 PM »
Arctic Sea Ice Currently Taking a Hit From All Sides


My own analysis of the current situation, especially for the benefit of Rep. Lamar Smith!

Facts About the Arctic in April 2017

Some extra graphs to add to the collection. All in all, the prognosis is not good. Both in Washington DC and much further north.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 01, 2017, 05:27:27 PM »
Ice mass balance buoy 2017A isn't updating daily like in the good old days. This is the latest available info:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A

Current Buoy Data (03/27/2017):

Pos: 72.81 N, 146.57 W
Air Temp: -26.78 C
Air Pres: 1019.21 mb
Snow depth : 10 cm
Ice thickness : 96 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 11 cm

37
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: April 01, 2017, 03:21:49 PM »
Much more on the aftermath of Wednesday's House Science Committee "climate science show trial":

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/the-house-science-climate-model-show-trial/#Apr-1

Judith Curry is doubling down on Mike Mann's allegations of "climate science denial" on her part:

Today is All Fools’ Day, but this is no joke.

What on Earth are Rep. Higgins and ex Prof. Curry on about with all this “RICO” business?

"Would you be able to at some future date provide to this committee evidence of your lack of association with the organisation Union of Concerned Scientists and lack of your association with the organisation called Climate Accountability Institute? Can you provide that documentation to this committee Sir?"


38
Developers Corner / Re: The Distributed Arctic Sea Ice Model
« on: March 31, 2017, 05:42:45 PM »
I am aware I am kind of resurrecting this thread


No problem!

A crowd-funded, collaboratively developed, Open Source climate model is always a Good Idea (tm) imho.


I won't argue!

The significant caveat here, according to my limited expertise in the subject, is that parallel climate simulation algorithms require high bandwidth and low latency interconnects between computing nodes. Hence most are run in batch mode on supercomputers, and do not lend themselves to a distributed environment.


True enough. Fortran + MPI seems to be order of the day. Perhaps that needs to change?

Note that some (many?) climate models are Open Source and their source code is freely available for academic purposes. But honestly, downloading this kind of source code which would take months to run on a desktop PC doesn't seem very practical to me.


By way of experiment, a cluster of Raspberry Pi Mark 1Bs running a "medium complexity" climate model:

http://econnexus.org/projects/the-distributed-arctic-sea-ice-model/raspberry-pi-planet-simulator-cluster/

Fortran + MPI!

39
Steig had a very nasty experience many years ago when Iago McIntyre came after him


Speaking of which, and only marginally off topic!

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/847696552046993409

See also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/the-house-science-climate-model-show-trial/#Mar-31

40
Yet now Eric Steig decided to take his opinion about me and the process of expressing scientific criticism on his paper in this fine blog public in a rather unprofessional rant of 9 twitter posts

I tweeted Eric again:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/847764942665248768

I wonder if I'll get a reply this time?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 Melting Season
« on: March 31, 2017, 11:36:06 AM »
What does the web cam in Barrow look like now?

FYI it's now officially the Utqiaġvik (Barrow) web cam. What do you suppose this image proves?

42
Thanks for the heads up Niall.

Very interesting!

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Malcolm Roberts' Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:18:31 PM »
Roberts has spent the last seven or eight years working as the project manager of the Galileo Movement — a climate science denial group launched in 2011.


Which no doubt explains why he feels it's a terribly cunning plan to delete my comments to the effect that:

Tony Heller is a proven purveyor of porky pies covered in lashings of cherry sauce:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/that-deaf-dumb-and-blind-kid-sure-plays-a-mean-climateball/

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Malcolm Roberts' Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:12:46 PM »
Jim, I wouldn't even waste your breath with Malcom Roberts.


I understand your point of view, but nonetheless I do like to archive the deeds and spread the word about the lunatics increasingly in charge of assorted asylums around the planet. Sometimes other words come boomeranging back:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/censorship-down-under-by-senator-malcolm-roberts/#Mar-30

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Donald Trump's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:09:06 PM »
Jim, what's going on in the Arctic data scrubbing story?


As Victoria says, since TrumpLand came into being all sorts of climate data are being "disappeared" from US government web sites. There are assorted ongoing efforts to try and archive it before it's too late:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/climate-change-data-rescue-berkeley-donald-trump-nasa-department-energy-environment-a7580481.html

46
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 30, 2017, 11:19:01 AM »
Meanwhile in Vlad's absence, via Facebook:

Coordinates: 89º38’N, 058º44’E
Weather: light snow, visibility: 5 km, wind: 4 m/sec, temperature: -30ºС.

The work on the airstrip goes on: 50% of it is ready. There are many snow ridges to chop off and sometimes shallow pits to fill in. It’s just regular job on the strip.

47
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 30, 2017, 11:09:55 AM »
Russia Today "reports" on Putin's Arctic adventure:

https://www.rt.com/news/382701-putin-arctic-summit-tour/

The Russian president is touring Franz Josef Land, a desolate archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, to inspect the environmental cleanup effort conducted there. A day later he is to take part in an international conference on Arctic development hosted by Russia.

Vladimir Putin landed on Wednesday on Alexandra Land, the westernmost island of the archipelago, lying some 1,000km north of mainland Russia near the Barents Sea. He is touring the desolate part of the country to inspect the progress in cleaning up waste left behind by Soviet expeditions and military deployments in the past.

48
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 29, 2017, 11:08:56 PM »
My initial report on today's House Committee on Science, Space and Technology hearing on "Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method“:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/the-house-science-climate-model-show-trial/

My YouTube feed cut out at the point Dana Rohrabacher got rather angry with Mike Mann! Correlation or causation?

49
Fallacious argument.

Excuse me? Peter was playing "what if?".

In particular, "what if natural variability is exactly the same today as it has been for the last 10,000 years?"

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Malcolm Roberts' Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 29, 2017, 01:01:03 PM »
Correlation doesn't equal causation of course, but for some strange reason Australian Senator Malcolm Roberts is censoring my comments on Facebook:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/censorship-down-under-by-senator-malcolm-roberts/

Don't "One Nation" advocate "free speech"?

There's a prime prize of a packet of peanuts for the first person to spot one or more of my comments in the wild on Facebook!

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