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Messages - Jim Hunt

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: Today at 03:49:13 PM »
What makes Yaraslov so wise?

Here's his life story:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaroslav_the_Wise

Apparently:

Nestor the Chronicler and later Russian historians often presented him as a model of virtue, styling him "the Wise".

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: Today at 12:44:33 PM »
I've put a frozen pic of what I commented on a few days ago here too for those who seem to really want it.

At least we now have a static image to discuss.

Seems to have been an upwelling of low oxygen water from 1km+ depth.

Personally I can't see how you could have an upwelling of water from 1km+ depth without it being evident in the salinity plots. Can anybody else, apart from Hyperion?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: Today at 12:37:19 PM »
But you can make out the disturbance of the ships track in the background.

No you can't. The image is looking over the bow of the Nordica:



I suspect this image taken in Larsen Sound is more likely to be representative of the area around O-Buoy-14:




4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: Today at 01:23:46 AM »
Yamal is now heading in the direction of the Vilkitsky Strait in the company of Angrap, Boris Vilkitsky and Yaroslav the Wise. The latter is heading for Pevek:

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 04:49:06 PM »
If you want the captured images you are free to do it yourself.

I did that once already, but it didn't get me very far!

What the hell is going on with ASIF lately??

It seems that these days some people on here are unwilling to debate the science.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 03:40:11 PM »
Several hundred times in the last couple of months I've done this and attached them to posts on this forum.


Can you do so with ITP plots in this thread please?

Can we lighten up a little?


Can you respond to this point please?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg122354.html#msg122354

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 12:14:03 PM »
I did not realize I could do that.  ::)


I did demonstrate the technique, not so very long ago:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.msg121711.html#msg121711

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 27, 2017, 12:10:33 PM »
This area though, barely registers on thickness maps and must be pretty thick in there.


You may be interested in the thread dedicated to the area?

Zachariae Isstrøm / Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden / North East Greenland

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 27, 2017, 11:39:28 AM »
Meanwhile Yamal reports that it's "Waiting the approach of ships"

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 27, 2017, 11:33:18 AM »
Wow Jim!


I'm not quite sure of the point you're trying to make? Your red square seems to cover Barrow Strait, and I'm afraid I don't have much faith in the DMI thickness map at the best of times. Here's the CIS stage of development map of the area instead. Larsen Sound is shown covered in brown "old ice". Victoria Strait and Peel Sound are full of "thick first year ice".

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 27, 2017, 01:39:13 AM »
Here's another one from Larsen Sound:



12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 26, 2017, 05:11:42 PM »
But isn't there a database somewhere that tracks all registered shipping?


There certainly is. Permissions:

http://www.nsra.ru/en/razresheniya/

Movements:

http://www.nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 26, 2017, 04:41:03 PM »
From David "Duke" Snider, ice pilot aboard Nordica:

Less [MYI in Larsen Sound] than charts indicate. More Second Year than old ice but still a challenge. Would stop non icebreakers in their tracks.



Plus thick FYI in Peel Sound:


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 26, 2017, 02:46:24 PM »
The Eemian took place around 120K years ago, so let's not exaggerate.

And 2014 was 3 years ago, if my arithmetic is correct:

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 26, 2017, 02:23:51 PM »
I suspect that many ships would have no problem getting through already.

No problem if following 50 Let Pobedy! An unaccompanied yacht might prefer to wait a little longer however?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 26, 2017, 12:40:00 PM »
I sound like a broken record on this... but you've got to look harder.


Might I suggest you look harder at 2013, if you don't comprehend the point Peter is making?

See A-Team's enhanced image from July 6th 2013 once again for example?


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 26, 2017, 11:55:02 AM »
Yes, well itp95 is in the same place and its showing a significant rise in Salinity and temperature.

Is there any chance you could refrain from linking to live ITP plots in future? Whatever point you are attempting to make will become even more difficult to discern as the days, weeks and months pass.

2017B between the pole and Fram seems like it could survive the season with its current melt rate.

Based on past performance 2017B will melt out in the Fram Strait before the year is out.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 26, 2017, 01:16:09 AM »
One interesting thing I noticed on their page was the historic data from all the previous buoys showed more surface melting than bottom melt.


I guess you didn't get as far back as 2006C?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 25, 2017, 07:12:47 PM »
Plenty of pictures of the Nordica breaking ice in the Victoria Strait:

https://apimagesblog.com/blog/2017/7/25/icebreaker-leaves-jagged-beautiful-arctic-icescapes


20
Arctic Background / Pen Hadow's Arctic Mission
« on: July 25, 2017, 07:01:59 PM »
In a blaze of publicity in the UK media, including the Sunday Times and the BBC, British polar explorer Pen Hadow has announced his attempt to sail to the North Pole this summer. From the "Arctic Mission" web site:

In a few days time British explorer Pen Hadow leads Arctic Mission, an amazing expedition by yacht to explore, discover and share the previously unseen wildlife and ecosystem of the ocean around the North Pole.

This voyage of discovery will also show why the survival of its wildlife may now face serious threats because so much of the summer-time sea ice no longer protects it from commercial exploitation.

So welcome aboard, as we make one of history's most extreme and urgent voyages, putting everything on the line to explore this little-known and now vulnerable ecosystem in our planet's overall life-supporting system.


There's much more info at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/pen-hadows-arctic-mission-to-sail-to-the-north-pole/

but to summarise, personally I don't think Pen's mission will be plain sailing. By way of one example, here's the current state of a patch of sea ice on the direct route from Nome, Alaska to the Pole:

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 05:28:28 PM »
I don't know where if anywhere to find the sensor string data.


Download the .CSV files linked to at the bottom of the individual buoy pages. Summarised at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2017-imb-buoys/

Ice thickness : 56 cm [down from 79 in week to 17 july]


You seem to have missed this bit of information from the 2017A page?

Many bad Sounder Readings after 7/5/17


By this point in the melting season the buoy will have created its own little melt pond/hole. The CRREL front page current states:

Ice Thickness: Approx. 33 cm


but I'd take that with a pinch of salt if I were you.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 08:22:15 PM »
Is there a magic 'composite view' on Polar View?


Not that I am aware of. If you're particularly interested in the Beaufort Sea the Canadian Ice Service provide a weekly Radarsat-2 mosaic:

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/getprod.pl?prodid=IPYMMR1WA&lang=en

23
Sebastien Roubinet and Vincent Berthet are crossing the Arctic Ocean

The English language page is out of date. Your quote refers to the 2013 expedition. From the French Language page:

Sébastien, Benoît et Pierre-Yves se préparent pour une nouvelle tentative de la traversée de l’Océan Arctique à la voile en 2018.

https://vimeo.com/190234557

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 04:49:14 PM »
I meant Sentinel Playground, not misleading, as that is what was being discussed by Liam


Liam referred to the Sentinel Toolbox.

Sentinel 2 images the Beaufort Sea much more frequently than Sentinel 1. The reverse is true for (most of) the CAB however!

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 24, 2017, 04:39:13 PM »
Well, then at least one ship succesfully used the passage this season

However the Nordica is an icebreaker, so the part of the NWP she has just negotiated is not yet "open" for less sturdy vessels.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 04:21:26 PM »
Regarding using Sentinel for Arctic, I'm not sure, but does it really go into the Arctic? Seems to cut off at the top of Greenland and all around that latitude, not really imaging the Arctic Ocean, only the peripheral of it?


You appear to be thinking of Sentinel 2? Sentinel 1 covers most of the Arctic apart from a modest "Pole Hole".

See below for an example. Much higher resolution available via: http://www.polarview.aq/arctic

Guys, please try to keep this forum free of comments that belong elsewhere.


Is this sufficiently on topic? What should one do if folks keep on making misleading remarks in here?


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 02:09:35 PM »
I bit the bullet, stacked one week of images from the eastern Arctic and removed the clouds manually (took hours).


Over the years A-Team has provided a number of helpful hints concerning how to automate "seeing through the clouds". How about this one for example?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,53.msg118915.html#msg118915

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 01:44:48 PM »
I don't see a lot posted pulling from the sentinel satilte missions, is there a reason why? ( Or is it and I'm just not realizing it)


If you search the forum for the word "Sentinel" you will discover numerous images in the area specific threads. By way of one recent example:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,400.msg120973.html#msg120973

Where do you access these? What sites? Links?


How about these for starters?

http://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/

http://www.polarview.aq/arctic

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php

https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 24, 2017, 12:56:02 AM »
Explorer expects NP to be open water this summer


See: http://www.arcticmission.com/

Some thoughts from last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/could-northabout-sail-to-the-north-pole/

More at:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pen-hadow-launches-bittersweet-mission-to-sail-to-north-pole-xq82c9225

You have to give the Sunday Times your email address, which reveals:

For his new record attempt, Hadow and his nine-strong team will take two yachts on a 3,500-mile round trip from Nome in Alaska to the pole, using satellites to find a route through the ice and avoid getting stuck. He will fly to Alaska to join his team members on Saturday.

If all goes to plan, he will arrive at the pole between August 15 and early September, about 510 miles further north than anyone has sailed before.

The risk of ships becoming trapped in ice was once very real. In 1893, at the start of the golden age of polar exploration, the Norwegian Fridtjof Nansen wedged his three-masted schooner, Fram, into the pack ice, trusting its natural drift to deliver him to the North Pole. After 18 months he tired of its slow and erratic progress and set off with dog sledges instead.


Personally I reckon the risk is still very real on Pen Hadow's planned route!

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2017, 06:46:08 PM »
I believe several folks (I was mum on the issue, having somewhat learned the lessen Jim & Terry named) predicted a melting lull that seems to have occurred a little later than expected.

Bear in mind that the "melting lull" might merely be an artifact of the way NSIDC do their sums (math as they call it in the good ol' U S of A). The JAXA and "homebrew" AMSR2 numbers are still declining, and as Wipneus put it:

The 15% cutoff may play a role here
.


31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 23, 2017, 06:33:54 PM »
The Finnish icebreaker Nordica has successfully negotiated Larsen and Peel Sounds and is entering the Parry Channel:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/#comment-222475

No pictures of the sea ice in the area have been published yet though.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2017, 01:00:29 AM »
This 'whose dick is biggest'-atmosphere and 'told you so'-anticipation is taking all the fun out of witnessing and discovering something together.

Cut. It. Out.

Hear, hear.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 22, 2017, 09:17:21 PM »
JavaScript Jim.

I guess I should check my post next time!

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 22, 2017, 06:13:08 PM »
A view of the waves currently breaking on the shore at Utqiaġvik (Barrow as was):


35
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 22, 2017, 01:22:23 PM »
There looks to me like a fairly large loss in the thickness of the overall fresher layer.

The fact that the buoy is moving seems like the likeliest explanation?

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 21, 2017, 03:54:23 PM »
I agree with 2015 and 2016, not so much with 2013, at least not on the base of a single image.


Here's a second image, showing some open holes on July 6th 2013:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2013-images/#CAB

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 21, 2017, 03:40:35 PM »
Near surface Salinity rising

You've linked to a live plot, which will change ad infinitum (or at least until the buoy bites the dust). Here's one preserved for posterity.

It looks to me as though in actual fact near surface salinity beneath ITP95 is currently decreasing?

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 17, 2017, 02:10:25 PM »
Charctic is broken??

It works fine for me at the moment.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 17, 2017, 12:52:54 PM »
No recent data from 2017A and 2017B - are they dead?

This year the data only seems to get processed for public consumption about once per week.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 14, 2017, 05:42:22 PM »
I might be old but I'm certainly not a fogie!

Be that as it may, depending on the wind and weather over the next few weeks it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that the small vessels currently heading in the direction of the Northwest Passage might encounter some problems by the time they reach the central section of the southern route:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/07/the-northwest-passage-in-2017/

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 14, 2017, 12:47:24 PM »
Old ice feeding into Larsen Snd./Victoria Strait making it difficult to transit used to be very common in past years - ask Frankllin!

However I can't help thinking that the "old ice" in 2017 is much less substantial than in 1846?

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 13, 2017, 10:15:59 PM »
That leaves Peel and especially Larsen Sound as the X factors.


On the southern route it looks as though the old ice in Larsen Sound and Victoria Strait will be the last to go:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 11, 2017, 07:20:01 PM »
Also, sometimes ice simply looses some of it's thickness to bottom or top melt.


As measured by two ice mass balance buoys. 2017A at 77.04 N, 155.20 W

Air Temp: -0.8 C
Ice thickness : 79 cm
All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 21 cm
Ice Bottom Melt : 19 cm



2017B at 85.02 N, 4.91 W

Air Temp: 0.8 C
Ice thickness : 155 cm
Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 10 cm
Ice bottom melt : 27 cm


44
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 11, 2017, 07:06:26 PM »
Unfortunately, currently away, cannot do the profile animations, for a nice while.

In which case see below for the non animated version.

In addition here's the 2017B summary from considerably further north:

Pos: 85.02 N, 4.91 W
Air Temp: 0.8 C
Ice thickness : 155 cm
Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 10 cm
Ice bottom melt : 27 cm

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 09, 2017, 01:12:05 PM »
It is interesting that between 50 and 100cm depth 2017A seems to be freezing at -1C. This suggests that the ice there has a salinity of only 17 PSU.

See the seminal work of G F N Cox on sea ice salinity. E.g.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/salinity-variations-in-sea-ice/0976B42E5B21CAE25BE26A0DD811513F/core-reader

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 03, 2017, 05:16:00 PM »
Via F.Tnioli, news from March 30th:

The 80,000 tonne-capacity Christophe de Margerie, an ice-class tanker fitted out to transport liquefied natural gas, docked in the icy port of Sabetta, with Russian President Vladimir Putin watching via live video-link.

Putin congratulated the crew and energy company officials gathered on the ship's bridge, saying: "This is a big event in the opening up of the Arctic."

The South Korean-built vessel was not picking up a cargo on its maiden voyage, but will eventually be used to transport gas from Russia's Yamal LNG plant, which is near the port.


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-novatek-lng-putin-idUSKBN1712K6




47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 03, 2017, 03:48:04 PM »
If it can go good part of the NSR in _March_ these days, how exactly should we consider the NSR "closed" right now only because some canadians decided that's how it should be? I say, we should not.


How should we define it then? The NSRA web site seems to be working intermittently if at all at the moment:

http://nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/

However it seems that the 34,146 tonne Pugnax is currently en route from Sabetta to China. Does that mean the Northern Sea Route is "Open"?

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 03, 2017, 02:48:25 PM »
Correct. In fact, "good and strong boats" these days include ships like Timofey Guzhenko ice-breaking oil tanker (and her sister ships)


There has been discussion about "ice-breaking oil tankers" on the Northern Sea Route thread. See e.g.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg101582.html#msg101582

My scepticism about LMV's "NSR Open" suggestion is based on the Canadian Ice Service's definition for the Northwest Passage, which appears to be "<= 3/10 concentration along the whole route":

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/08/is-the-northwest-passage-open-yet/

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 02, 2017, 01:56:16 PM »
locating that in worldview where pointer locations are diplayed in the bottom right corner. I then located the same floe pattern in sentinel playground where I don't know what the lat/lon reference in the URL refers to.


Why not cut out the middle man and simply add the decimal version of the lat/long to the URL?

http://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?lat=74.195&lng=-103.0567&zoom=13&maxcc=100&gain=0.5&time=2017-07-01

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 02, 2017, 11:44:36 AM »
Do we know how the camera is gimbaled?


I don't think it is. Watch the video from ~7:50, when it melted out of its floe last summer. It looks to me as if the camera is firmly tied to the mast.

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