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Messages - Jim Hunt

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1
Thanks for the heads up Niall.

Very interesting!

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: Malcolm Roberts' Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:18:31 PM »
Roberts has spent the last seven or eight years working as the project manager of the Galileo Movement — a climate science denial group launched in 2011.


Which no doubt explains why he feels it's a terribly cunning plan to delete my comments to the effect that:

Tony Heller is a proven purveyor of porky pies covered in lashings of cherry sauce:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/that-deaf-dumb-and-blind-kid-sure-plays-a-mean-climateball/

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Malcolm Roberts' Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:12:46 PM »
Jim, I wouldn't even waste your breath with Malcom Roberts.


I understand your point of view, but nonetheless I do like to archive the deeds and spread the word about the lunatics increasingly in charge of assorted asylums around the planet. Sometimes other words come boomeranging back:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/censorship-down-under-by-senator-malcolm-roberts/#Mar-30

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Donald Trump's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 30, 2017, 12:09:06 PM »
Jim, what's going on in the Arctic data scrubbing story?


As Victoria says, since TrumpLand came into being all sorts of climate data are being "disappeared" from US government web sites. There are assorted ongoing efforts to try and archive it before it's too late:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/climate-change-data-rescue-berkeley-donald-trump-nasa-department-energy-environment-a7580481.html

5
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 30, 2017, 11:19:01 AM »
Meanwhile in Vlad's absence, via Facebook:

Coordinates: 89º38’N, 058º44’E
Weather: light snow, visibility: 5 km, wind: 4 m/sec, temperature: -30ºС.

The work on the airstrip goes on: 50% of it is ready. There are many snow ridges to chop off and sometimes shallow pits to fill in. It’s just regular job on the strip.

6
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 30, 2017, 11:09:55 AM »
Russia Today "reports" on Putin's Arctic adventure:

https://www.rt.com/news/382701-putin-arctic-summit-tour/

The Russian president is touring Franz Josef Land, a desolate archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, to inspect the environmental cleanup effort conducted there. A day later he is to take part in an international conference on Arctic development hosted by Russia.

Vladimir Putin landed on Wednesday on Alexandra Land, the westernmost island of the archipelago, lying some 1,000km north of mainland Russia near the Barents Sea. He is touring the desolate part of the country to inspect the progress in cleaning up waste left behind by Soviet expeditions and military deployments in the past.

7
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 29, 2017, 11:08:56 PM »
My initial report on today's House Committee on Science, Space and Technology hearing on "Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method“:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/the-house-science-climate-model-show-trial/

My YouTube feed cut out at the point Dana Rohrabacher got rather angry with Mike Mann! Correlation or causation?

8
Fallacious argument.

Excuse me? Peter was playing "what if?".

In particular, "what if natural variability is exactly the same today as it has been for the last 10,000 years?"

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Malcolm Roberts' Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 29, 2017, 01:01:03 PM »
Correlation doesn't equal causation of course, but for some strange reason Australian Senator Malcolm Roberts is censoring my comments on Facebook:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/censorship-down-under-by-senator-malcolm-roberts/

Don't "One Nation" advocate "free speech"?

There's a prime prize of a packet of peanuts for the first person to spot one or more of my comments in the wild on Facebook!

10
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 29, 2017, 11:52:10 AM »
Retired Rear Admiral David Titley expresses his views on the House Science Committee hearing later today:

Should Climate Scientists Boycott Congressional Hearings?

We should no longer be duped into playing along with this strategy.

Despite sending many skilled science communicators to testify at the hearings over the years and even when scoring tactical victories, the strategic effect of participating at these hearings has been to sustain the perception of false equivalence, a perception only exaggerated by the majority’s ability to select a grossly disproportionate number of witnesses far removed from mainstream science (it’s not coincidence that Judith Curry, professor emeritus, Georgia Institute of Technology, and John Christy, professor of atmospheric sciences, University of Alabama at Huntsville, are called upon so often by the Republicans).

A better response would be to simply boycott future hearings of this kind and to call out these hearings for what they are: a tactic to distract the public from a serious policy debate over how to manage both the short- and long-term risks of climate change.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 28, 2017, 10:17:49 PM »
Herfried - Laughable indeed.

The only problem is it seems that in this day and age the lunatics are in charge of the asylum:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/that-deaf-dumb-and-blind-kid-sure-plays-a-mean-climateball/#comment-220045

Bannon peddles that crap, and Trump falls for it?

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The WUWT Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 28, 2017, 07:40:20 PM »
You are very kind Terry, and the pleasure's all mine. Really! The ad homs are, on average, far worse at "Steve Goddard's".

However, please feel free to read all about some recent undeleted expletives at WUWT:

"Shock News! Alice F. Convicted in WUWT Show Trial!!"

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Piomas vs. CryoSat
« on: March 28, 2017, 03:32:29 PM »
...and am I correct in saying that in Beaufort, at least, the (few) on-the-ground thickness measurements (from the new 2017 IMBs) indicate that PIOMAS may itself be somewhat on the high side?


No, as Peter pointed out. If the buoy doesn't get crushed in a ridge it should give a good idea how thermodynamic thickening (and eventually melting) goes from here. 2017A will certainly be on first year ice, but we can't say with any certainty when the floe started to freeze. < 1m seems on the low side to me for ice that's been increasing in thickness all winter long, and the Canadian Ice Service maps show thicker ice in that area. However I haven't checked location/motion/temperature yet to see if that helps explain matters.

I've been too busy winding up Anthony Watts amongst others!

 

14
Jim,

As usual your latest post on your blog is a must-read, and I just read it with particular interest, because it is in many ways related to this thread.


Andrew - Thank you for your kind words. It may therefore interest you to learn that my very latest post also "is in many ways related to this thread."

"Shock News! Alice F. Convicted in WUWT Show Trial!!"

What is one to do, then, when Anthony Watts publishes these scurrilous allegations about one's character by the pseudonymous "Sunsettommy" under an article by David Middleton on a topic under much discussion here?



15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The WUWT Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 28, 2017, 11:36:14 AM »
My Twitter "conversation" with Anthony Watts is coming along nicely. My contact details are well and truly plastered all over cyberspace.

Meanwhile Watts and his band of merry mods have trampled this plaintive message underfoot on their cutting room floor:

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 28, 2017, 11:25:49 AM »
An excellent view of the recently refrozen sea ice in the East Siberian Sea this morning, courtesy of the Terra satellite:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-220587

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The WUWT Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: March 28, 2017, 12:20:51 AM »
Only slightly off topic, my very good friend Alice F. has just been  "outed" by Anthony Watts in his time honoured, inimitable manner. Read all about it at:

https://archive.is/QF05J#selection-13147.0-13147.6

I don't think Anthony is a big fan of surrealist humour  :'(

See also: https://twitter.com/AF_Wetware/status/846485474969604096


18
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: March 27, 2017, 10:19:21 PM »
Barneo 2017 being established.


Not  so new on the ASIF though!  See the dedicated thread:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905

19
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 27, 2017, 12:22:41 PM »
Curry, Pielke, Christy -- all three superstars of climate denial will appear before the US House Science Committee next week!


My own take on that story:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/a-report-on-the-state-of-the-arctic-in-2017/

Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
Lamar Smith comes to bury Michael Mann, not to praise him.

20
But I don't expect any of them to bother answering your email


As Rob has already pointed out, it didn't take long for your theory to be falsified!

For the record, I'm not a climate scientist but I have numerous email exchanges and even telephone conversations with people that are. Sometimes I even get to meet them in person:

https://youtu.be/UYAaQ4iwdtY

Persuading them to "stick their head above the parapet" in public is generally a little trickier. Kevin Anderson needs no such persuading however! Re your final paragraph, get the popcorn ready:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/a-report-on-the-state-of-the-arctic-in-2017/

Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
Lamar Smith comes to bury Michael Mann, not to praise him

21
Arctic Background / Re: Importance of waves in the Arctic
« on: March 26, 2017, 10:12:22 AM »
A couple of papers from Pierre Rampal et al.:

neXtSIM: a new Lagrangian sea ice model

and currently under discussion:

Wave-ice interactions in the neXtSIM sea-ice model

The amount of attenuation that waves in ice experience is the main factor in determining the amount of momentum transferred to the ice. However, definitive confirmation of any particular physical models for this is still lacking.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 26, 2017, 12:01:46 AM »
Does anyone know where to find HYCOM/CICE forecasts after March 21?

It seems to be up to March 24th now.

23
It would be an excellent topic if he had real experts instead of three bozos and an expert....

As a wag on Twitter pointed out, the Committee ought to be interrogating seeking the expert advice of another 96 climate scientists.

Smith comes to bury Mann, not to praise him.

24
At the risk of drifting off topic, may I take this opportunity to point out that whilst we debate how many angels can dance on the head of a pin the cryodenialospheric porky pie production line is cranking up to full speed once again?

Lamar Smith’s Show Trial for Climate Models

All in all there’s several “alternative facts” in just the headline and opening paragraph of the GWPF’s press release, which doesn’t augur well for the contents of the report itself.

We feel sure that Lamar Smith and the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology will nonetheless be pleased to see this report become public shortly before their planned hearing on March 29th entitled “Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method“:

We also feel sure they were pleased to view the contents of another recent “white paper” published under the GWPF banner. The author was ex Professor Judith Curry, and the title was “Climate Models for the Layman“

26
Arctic sea ice / The Buoys Are Back in Town
« on: March 25, 2017, 11:30:57 AM »
The buoys are back in town. Or in the Beaufort Sea actually:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201617-imb-buoys/#2017A

Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):

Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm

Current Buoy Data (03/23/2017):

Pos: 72.82 N, 146.61 W
Air Temp: -24.66 C
Air Pres: 1012.43 mb
Snow depth : 10 cm
Ice thickness : 93 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017):

Snow surface accumulation: 10 cm
Ice bottom growth : 8 cm

See also: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/UpTempO/Data.php

27
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 24, 2017, 10:51:14 PM »
Some videos of the drop to Zhalyuzi-2 via Irina Orlova's YouTube channel:

https://youtu.be/_kQqOPHY8R8


28
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 24, 2017, 10:45:41 PM »

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 10:32:47 PM »
An open access paper from the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition:

"Turbulent heat and momentum fluxes in the upper ocean under Arctic sea ice"

Oceanic heat flux is weakly positive in winter over the Nansen Basin during quiescent conditions, increasing by an order of magnitude during storm events. An event of local upwelling and mixing in the winter-time Nansen basin highlights the importance of individual events. Spring-time drift is confined to the Yermak Plateau and its slopes, where vertical mixing is enhanced. Wind events cause an approximate doubling of oceanic heat fluxes compared to calm periods. In June, melting conditions near the ice edge lead to heat fluxes of O(100 W m−2). The combination of wind forcing with shallow Atlantic Water layer and proximity to open waters leads to maximum heat fluxes reaching 367 W m−2, concurrent with rapid melting.

30
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 23, 2017, 02:28:26 PM »
Returning closer to topic, though still a bit offside,* there is a scheduled persecution by Rep. Lamar Smith's Space, Science and Technology Committee (House of Representatives)


Absolutely on topic Susan! What's more Alice and I are on the case even as we speak!!

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/844887203947909124

Shock News! We've even entered the very heart of darkness!!

http://archive.is/B0bEo#selection-3207.0-3207.53

When do you suppose will be the optimum time to turn up the heat under the popping pan?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: March 23, 2017, 09:44:41 AM »
I'd noticed that too Wipneus!

Meanwhile OSI-SAF tell me:

Concerning the ice type product, there is as you point out a systematic problem that gives multi-year ice in some young ice areas, and we are working on improving that.

and

Concerning the new AMSR2 product, we will provide a quicklook archive of product images as for SSMIS. This should be available in a couple of weeks.

32
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 22, 2017, 04:56:36 PM »
According to the Barneo Facebook page the expedition helicopters have reached Severnaya Zemlya:

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 12:13:01 PM »
Still, this could be another unprecedented, amigos.


I'd noticed that too Neven:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-220245

The Hamburg Uni processing pipeline seems to be gummed up at the moment, but this is how things looked yesterday:


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 10:22:11 AM »
I find it hard to imagine with this sort of ice movement having the Barneo ice camp happen at all this year.


It seems the 'copters are grounded in Khatanga by weather at the moment:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905.msg107203.html#msg107203

Maybe the search for a solid floe will start tomorrow?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: March 22, 2017, 01:19:47 AM »
They just thought their Party was silly to ignore the obvious, but that wasn't enough to drive them away...


Facts are not enough Jim?

http://AFWetware.org/2017/03/21/the-problem-with-facts/

36
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 22, 2017, 01:17:11 AM »
My very good friend Alice F. has somehow managed to dig up some more dirt on David Rose:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/844339885959983104

Do you suppose his toes are starting to feel a trifle toasty yet?

37
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 21, 2017, 10:50:43 PM »
Although there's nothing on the NPEO web site itself yet, apparently:

No web cams were deployed in 2016, due to funding constraints, however deployments are planned for Spring 2017.


https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/arctic-zone/gallery_np.html

Meanwhile according to yesterday's report on the Barneo Facebook page:

On March 15, a truck with landing equipment set off from Moscow to Murmansk and yesterday it arrived at the destination.

On March 17, another truck and a trailer with loaded platforms and tractors started out from Moscow to Tver (Migalovo airport). The landing party also arrived there. On March 18, the paratroopers with platforms and tractors flew to Murmansk by Il-76. They will be preparing the platforms for airdrop at the Zhalyuzi point.

On March 19, two helicopters of the AeroGeo a/c flew up in Krasnoyarsk and followed the route Krasnoyarsk – Podkamennaya Tunguska – Igarka - Khatanga.


Irina Orlova isn't too keen on the current weather situation:

Today's weather did not allow helicopters to fly from Khatanga.

It seems that the helicopters again tomorrow will not be able to fly out.

Only on 23 March, the weather may change.


For the Russian language experts amongst us, a TV report on the Barneo 2017 preparations is available here:

http://www.tv21.ru/news/2017/03/20/barneo--2017-ekspediciya-na-severnyy-polyus-gotova-k-startu

38
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 21, 2017, 07:31:43 PM »
<snip; N.>

I'd love to see what's on your cutting room floor too Neven!  ;D

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 04:41:06 PM »
A better look at the Laptev

Quite so. The Suomi "Nighttime Imagery" is a useful addition to the Worldview toolkit.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 21, 2017, 03:46:27 PM »
I had to laugh too.  ;)

Snow White is disgusted. Blatant gender discrimination! How high is the glass ceiling in the Arctic?

41
Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: March 21, 2017, 03:42:14 PM »
Vigilius doesn't seem to have taken the hint yet, so with thanks for the heads up, albeit in the wrong place:

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/03/russias-north-pole-camp-making

The copters type Mi-8T on Sunday morning took off from Krasnoyarsk with course for the north. They will have pitstops in Igarka, Khatanga and on the island of Sredny, Severnaya Zemlya, before they make it all the way to the North Pole, aviation company Aerogeo informs.

The eleven people on board are not only pilots and aircraft technicians, but also experienced polar experts. They will first identify an ice floe suitable for the Barneo-2017, and then help facilitate the delivery on site of people and goods.


Plus some "Shock News!"

It has been speculated about a possible visit to site of President Vladimir Putin. According to SeverPost, the President might go to Barneo ahead of his attendance at the Arctic Forum in Arkhangelsk late this week.


Perhaps the Norwegian powers that be will have second thoughts again this year?

42
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 21, 2017, 03:28:34 PM »
I do not remember saying anything to you.


You have a remarkably short memory Jim. Allow me to refresh it for you:

Don't you understand English at all?

43
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 21, 2017, 09:53:28 AM »
Neven - You haven't moderated Jim W's apology have you?

Jim W. - At the risk of repeating myself, you've flung the vaguest of insults loudly in my direction. Please state your case or apologise.

Alternatively, in some words I picked up off ex Prof. Judy’s cutting room floor:

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/expose-david-rose-does-not-understand-baselines/#comment-91207

Thank you for your attention.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 20, 2017, 03:48:49 PM »
Before we get too deep into melting season, would some of the more seasoned posters mind giving a handful of things they will be keeping an eye on over the next few months to judge how 'good' or 'bad' the melt is going?


5 fingers worth to start with? Not necessarily in order of time or importance!

1. How soon melt ponds and/or open water hang around in the Beaufort Sea this year. Things started very early last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/

2. Ditto the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea

3. Ditto the Laptev and East Siberian Seas

4. How many (and how deep, warm, wet) spring cyclones spin around the Arctic Ocean

5. How the snow melt progresses across Canada, Alaska and Siberia

Next please!

45
Eric steig
2017/03/20
Jim hunt: your question being whether we “saw this coming”?


In case it's not obvious, Crandles' quote was extracted from The Stoat. One of my follow up questions for Eric over there:

Any thoughts on this recent comment of mine at Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog?

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2017/03/lowest-maximum-on-record-again.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d26c9d01970c#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01b8d26c9d01970c

46
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 20, 2017, 09:48:08 AM »
No wonder I tend to ignore you when you say anything other than pure direct data.  You are asking me to waste my time before giving me a reason to waste it.

Don't you understand economics at all???????


Jim - I've recently spent many happy hours in the company of the deplorable denizens:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/that-deaf-dumb-and-blind-kid-sure-plays-a-mean-climateball/

Your tactics are identical to theirs.

Please stop being so patronising. Stop the ad homs. State your case, if you have one.

47
In response to a number of posts discussing the issue of communication with a general audience and whether scientists in general or the authors here should be criticized for their language/format/style; here is an example of the climate denialist reaction; “Natural Variability’s Role in Arctic Sea Ice Decline Strengthens Case for Lukewarming”


Thanks for the heads up. However in response to your posts discussing climate denialist communications perhaps I might take this opportunity to criticize your style? Please do not give the likes of Messrs Michaels and Knappenburger the oxygen of publicity by linking to their hogwash. Instead link to archived versions like this one:

http://archive.is/wbTfu

Here is a list of such archived climate denialist reactions:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#AltDenialist

Here once again is a further helpful hint:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/is-arctic-ice-loss-driven-by-natural-swings/#comment-219940

I take it you are aware that the lunatics are now in charge of the asylum?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/that-deaf-dumb-and-blind-kid-sure-plays-a-mean-climateball/#comment-220045

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: March 19, 2017, 11:15:17 PM »
If you have panoply installed you can plot from the .nc file.

I do have Panoply installed, so sure. I've even been beta testing some improvements. Nonetheless it does still seem as though the OSI-SAF web site is somewhat broken in the AMSR2 department.

49
Science / Re: ClimateGate 2
« on: March 19, 2017, 06:31:51 PM »
An article on the self same alleged “correction”:

"Don’t Panic! It’s Just Another Climategate 2 Correction!!"

Last night the Mail Online web site... published an excuse for a “correction” to the egregious inaccuracy published on February 19th 2017 as part of David Rose’s self christened “Climategate 2” campaign in the Mail on Sunday.

One of the numerous problems with the Mail and the GWPF’s version of these recent events is that none of the UK Met Office insiders I have contacted have any idea what the Mail might be blathering on about.




50
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 19, 2017, 06:23:19 PM »
Did you really expect me to spend 2 hours???

I most certainly do, if that's how long it takes.

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