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Messages - Bob Wallace

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1
Thanks, SMN, that's interesting.

I don't believe there can be a universal basic income, unless Zuckerberg's income and wealth is capped. Would he agree to that? I wish I could ask him. 'Mark, how much is enough?'

Although  I agree with your idea of a cap on total wealth, there are some worthwhile projects that billionaires make possible to happen.  So perhaps personal wealth should be judged separately from "foundation" wealth.  Perhaps above a certain amount, redistribution of wealth could be directed to something other than "everyone else."  I guess there would have to be some sort of oversight board to assure such projects are beneficial and not harmful.

Absolutely, you can't just take away money from the megarich and then let it get wasted in some form of bureaucracy. In fact, I believe you would somehow have to convince the megarich that their wealth needs to be capped if they don't want to destroy everything, everyone and themselves. For that you'd have to be able to present good ideas on what happens with the money, and how.

Perhaps some sort of referendum, with the megawealthy getting something like a superdelegate vote.

I don't know, I'm still thinking a lot about the idea.

Or we could return to pre-Reagan tax rates and elect some good people to run the government.

Personally, I was fairly happy with the way things went in 2009 to early 2011.  A couple more liberal Senators would have made things danged good.

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: May 26, 2017, 10:23:43 PM »
If we don't come up with a better idea then it's likely we'll end up crushing mountains. 

Extreme solutions will become more acceptable as pain levels rise.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 26, 2017, 09:56:43 PM »
Can you imagine what could happen to buildings in a city left unoccupied for six years?

Roofing leaks, broken windows, larger thermal shifts, flooded basements, rodent damage - stuff that requires expensive repairs.  It would not be 'wait six years and move back in'.

And I'm assuming guards could keep out the urban scavengers from ripping out wiring and copper pipe.  From stealing anything aluminum.

4
Tax higher levels of wealth.  Allow enough wealth accumulation for a comfortable, but not luxurious, retirement. 

Tax the third million at 0.1% or some low level.  Then the fourth at 0.2%.  By the time net worth reaches 100 million a 1% annual tax would not be out of line.  (Sticking that wealth in an index fund should return over 8% per year.)

If wealthy individuals want to use some of their money for the public good then they get a tax break, which they already do.  But the problem is  what is "good".  Gates funding health programs in Africa would be seen by most as good.  But the Kock's funding anti-climate change activities?

5
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but, China....
« on: May 26, 2017, 08:16:12 PM »
Let's hold off on being really critical of the US for a couple of  years to see if the Hyperloop works out.  If it doesn't then it's time to get serious about HSR.

At 1,200 kmh the 'loop would make the 7,769 kilometers trip in 6.5 hours rather than 33.

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 26, 2017, 08:11:24 PM »
Within a couple of decades people and businesses could come flocking back as the realities of sea level rise, high temperatures/drought and crazy weather make themselves increasingly felt in the south.

Much safer in Ohio, surrounded the Great Lakes with the rainfall moving northwards and away from the coasts. Perhaps a great long-term investment opportunity?

Not that soon, but if we move to something like guaranteed basic incomes then I would expect people to start seeking out the nicer places in the interior where they could find less expensive places to live, a spot for gardening, and access to uncrowded recreational lands.  Some of the places in the middle of the country where economies are crashing are very beautiful. 


7
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: May 26, 2017, 08:06:24 PM »
"Or for a sci-fi option invent small autonomous robots that are solar powered rock crushers and turn them loose in appropriate mountain terrains."

This is the up-to-date version of a dream of mine since the earliest 80's, before I had even an inkling about GW.  (At the time, it was to support global soil, thus plant, health.) Of course, glaciers are the traditional solar powered rock crushers, no batteries required!

It's an idea.  The scale of what needs to be done is tremendous.  One coal plant burns about 200 full railroad coal cars of fuel per day. 

We'd probably need massive renewable energy powered mining machines, crushers, trucks, rail and ships to move mountains.  No reason why they could run autonomously eventually.


8
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 26, 2017, 06:04:14 PM »
As more companies leave Ohio in search of cleaner and cheaper energy.

Won't they ever learn?

It feels like we are continuing to hollow out the rust belt states.  Brighter kids mostly leave for places where opportunities are better.  The folks who have stayed behind don't seem to have the cognitive ability to rebuild their economies.  They're caught up into resentment, blaming others, and opioid addiction.

Perhaps, at some time, they will bottom out and turn things around.  Or maybe the US Midwest largely consist of agriculture and wind farms and little else.


9
When we discuss how goods will be distributed in the future (universal guaranteed income), remember that the cost of goods will approach zero.

We will reach a point at which the only cost for goods will be the raw materials.  Energy and labor will be essentially free.  And, hopefully, the materials will mostly be recycled so that even the cost of raw materials will be cheap.

10
Unearned income (now referred to with the fancy title of capital gains) should be taxed at a higher rate than earned income

I agree (even though I live largely on earnings from investments).  I think the tax structure should be designed so that it's easier to earn the first million than the second million.

Things will stay out of kilter as long as working and poor people do not vote for their own interests but either don't bother to vote or let themselves be mislead by the likes of Rupert Murdoch.



11
Changing the source of energy from fossil fuels to renewables may simply fuel further the current mix of economic growth that has such dire consequences for the planet.

Are you concerned that we'll run out of bauxite and sand?

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 25, 2017, 10:43:45 PM »
Oh, hell.  Russia has already sunk some reactors off their beaches.  What's a few more hunks of radioactive junk in the ocean?

Some people get so worked up over radiation that isn't in their backyard. I mean, if I've got mine why should I care about anyone else? 

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 25, 2017, 07:32:41 PM »
Look for Trump to start selling off US reserves as China's drop in purchasing weakens the price of oil.

Such a winner.  Are we tired of all the winning he's brought us so far?

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 25, 2017, 07:30:04 PM »
A significant amount of the increase in renewables in Germany has resulted in increased electricity exports, rather than shutting down fossil fuel generation.

A probable attribution error in addition to a factual error.  Factually, German fossil fuel generation has dropped.  Germany has several coal plants lined up for closure.  And one brand new coal plant that has never been fired up and most likely never will be.

The increase in export is likely due to Germany's dropping wholesale cost of electricity.  Remember how the aluminum smelter in The Netherlands threatened to go into bankruptcy if it was not allowed to purchase less expensive electricity from Germany?

While the fossil fuel industry is claiming that renewables are causing Germany to dump electricity at a loss, Germany continues to show a healthy and increasing profit from its exports and imports of electricity.

Germany should be shutting down coal and lignite before nuclear.

That's a value judgement that is not shared by the German people.  They want to both lower carbon emissions and lower their exposure to nuclear disaster.

The true leaders right now seem to be China, given their seeming ability to grow very rapidly while not increasing their emissions.

Don't forget how dirty China became as it grew up until recently.  Now China's need for additional electricity is leveling off and they are able to close down some coal use.  From 2014 to 2015 China's electricity production rose only 0.3%.

(And don't forget that the economics for nuclear are not applicable in the West or any other region/country that does not have a source of very cheap labor.)

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 25, 2017, 04:33:20 PM »
Arizona is a very red/Republican state.  Republicans are late getting to the renewable energy dance.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 25, 2017, 09:42:55 AM »
Whoa, Ol' Spot!  We're going over a cliff...


Tucson Electric Power (TEP) this week announced it would buy solar energy from a new 100MW solar plant at the historically low price of less than US3c/kWh – less than half of what it had agreed to pay in similar contracts over the last few years.

The project will also include 30MW/120MWh of battery storage, and the company says that the power purchase agreement for the combined output is “significantly less” than US4.5c/kWh – nearly two-thirds cheaper than the previous such contract struck in Hawaii, and well below the cost of a gas-fired peaking plant.

It is the first time in the US that a solar contract has fallen below US3c/kWh, although it has already occurred in Dubai (which holds the record low of 2.54c/kWh), Chile and Mexico. The prices in those countries are unsubsidised, and the US price includes the benefit of a 30 per cent tax credit, which pushes the unsubsidised price back up to near US4c/kWh.


http://reneweconomy.com.au/stunning-new-lows-in-solar-and-battery-storage-costs-13929/


Three cents means that the solar farm is generating for less than 4c/kWh.  For the first ten years of a likely 20 year contract (PPA) they can get a 2.3c/Wh production tax credit.  1.15/kWh over 20 years.  That takes 3c to 4.15/kWh but that price also includes the farm's profits.

At 4.5c/kWh the solar farm will be producing dispatchable electricity.  It will compete with the most expensive electricity of the day.  Probably from sundown to late evening, the "duck's neck". 

This will push gas peakers into a deeper backup role, make their output more expensive when it is used, and create a wider window for storage to sneak in.

Expect to hear weeping from behind fossil fuel's door....

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 25, 2017, 09:22:27 AM »
Germany was one of a couple of countries that helped bring the price of solar panels from expensive to very affordable.  Germany and Denmark are leading countries in establishing offshore wind.  That pretty much makes them leaders.

Germany peaked at 1077 million tonnes of CO2 emitted in 1980 and dropped that to 754 in 2015.



Germany really pisses off nuclear fans because Germany is closing their reactors.  I suspect it doubly pisses them off because Germany is widely regarded as one of world's most technologically advanced countries.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 25, 2017, 05:55:31 AM »
A new jobs training initiative in Wyoming seeks to bridge the gap between diminishing coal employment and booming wind technician jobs.

Goldwind Americas, the local branch of the major Chinese turbine manufacturer, is launching a free jobs training program for what the Bureau of Labor Statistics ranks as the fastest-growing job in the U.S. Wind turbine service technician employment is slated to grow 108 percent in the 10 years starting from 2014, with median wages of $52,260 in 2016.

The Goldwind Works program will tackle the demand for skilled turbine repairs alongside another national challenge: the declining fortunes of America's coal miners. The company is building a massive wind farm in a part of Wyoming with a history so linked to the coal industry that it is called Carbon County.



https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/chinese-wind-turbine-company-goldwind-wants-to-hire-out-of-work-coal-miners

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 25, 2017, 05:51:52 AM »
Along with developing sprawling new wind and solar farms, China is investing heavily in the most efficient coal technologies. In fact, new plants under construction in the country are dramatically more efficient than anything currently operating in the U.S....

China is closing down many of its older coal plants. At the same time, China’s operating coal plants must meet a very high efficiency standard by 2020 -- a bar that very few American coal plants can meet.

 CAP researchers dug into a wave of Chinese coal plants announced between 2013 to 2016 and found that many of them likely won't get constructed.

"What American observers need to know is that many of those new plants are white elephants that China cannot fully utilize. They represent a blip rather than a trend, and Beijing is already moving to shut down many of these new plants."

Still, the plants currently under construction in China are some of the most efficient in the world. The report found that 90 out of 100 of China’s most efficient coal plants are ultra-supercritical, which means they’re operating at high temperatures of over 1,400 degrees Fahrenheit and pressures of more than 5,000 pounds per square inch.

In contrast, only one of America's 100 most efficient coal plants is ultra-supercritical. The rest are subcritical or supercritical, which operate at much lower temperatures and pressures, and thus are far less efficient.

Chinese citizens are pressuring the government to solve severe air pollution problems, forcing Chinese officials to halt many new plants. Cheap natural gas is a primary reason for coal retirements in the U.S.

China doesn’t have the same type of easily accessible, low-cost domestic natural gas that America does. This makes efficient coal more important to its energy mix in the medium term, conclude the analysts.

"Energy solutions that work well for China will not necessarily work well for the United States. In addition to the massive population disparity, the United States has access to cheap and plentiful shale gas, and China does not. If China is going to reduce emissions substantially, more efficient coal generation has to be part of its equation, at least for the near to medium term. In the United States, investing in next-generation clean coal plants is not a good solution, because natural gas is cheap, plentiful and lower-emitting than all but the most expensive coal-fired power," write the researchers.

The transformation won’t be easy for coal workers. But employment in clean energy will far outpace the decline in coal jobs in China.

According to the report, Beijing expects its coal sector to shed 1.3 million workers between 2016 to 2020. Meanwhile, 13 million new clean energy jobs are slated to be created in China by 2020.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/chinas-coal-fleet-will-soon-be-more-efficient-than-americas


Trading one coal job for ten clean energy jobs seems like a good deal to me. 

20
How about a version for self-driving cars?

Like the last panel - green stuff, benches, bike racks, bike lanes, raised crosswalks (lifts for disabled) and -

Main travel through town routes. 

Three (or four) lanes.  One way only.  Right and left lanes for cars entering and turning.  Center lane for moving on through.

No cross traffic if possible.  If a car does need to cross, turn in direction of traffic flow, move to far lane, turn off at next cross.  Where main E/W and N/S artery cross use overpass.  If possible make the center lane(s) a non-stop trip across town.

No parking.  Stop/discharge/load in limited number of pullouts (one per block?) or cross streets. 

Want to really encourage bike use?  Build a couple of elevated bike routes that one could ride from one end of town to the other without stopping.  Build off/on ramps every 4-6 blocks.

21
Electric autorickshaws (the very common three wheel vehicle in India and Bangladesh) would make an credible difference in both air quality and noise levels.

Bring 'em on....

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 24, 2017, 07:39:42 AM »
Though India had been expected to be the site of a coal boom, plans for new coal construction totaling nearly 14 GW have been cancelled so far this month.

Analyst Tim Buckley of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis pegged the coal cancellations on record-low solar tariffs of three cents per KW/hr, The Independent reported. Buckley said as of January last year energy analysts predicted such a low price could never be achieved.

That price is lower than the current wholesale coal power price of four cents per KW/hr.

“For the first time solar is cheaper than coal in India and the implications this has for transforming global energy markets is profound,” Buckley said.

“Measures taken by the Indian Government to improve energy efficiency coupled with ambitious renewable energy targets and the plummeting cost of solar has had an impact on existing as well as proposed coal fired power plants, rendering an increasing number as financially unviable. India’s solar tariffs have literally been free falling in recent months.”

http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2017/05/india-cancels-plans-for-14-gw-of-coal-due-to-cheap-solar.html


23
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but India...
« on: May 24, 2017, 07:37:16 AM »
Though India had been expected to be the site of a coal boom, plans for new coal construction totaling nearly 14 GW have been cancelled so far this month.

Analyst Tim Buckley of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis pegged the coal cancellations on record-low solar tariffs of three cents per KW/hr, The Independent reported. Buckley said as of January last year energy analysts predicted such a low price could never be achieved.
That price is lower than the current wholesale coal power price of four cents per KW/hr.

“For the first time solar is cheaper than coal in India and the implications this has for transforming global energy markets is profound,” Buckley said.

“Measures taken by the Indian Government to improve energy efficiency coupled with ambitious renewable energy targets and the plummeting cost of solar has had an impact on existing as well as proposed coal fired power plants, rendering an increasing number as financially unviable. India’s solar tariffs have literally been free falling in recent months.”

http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2017/05/india-cancels-plans-for-14-gw-of-coal-due-to-cheap-solar.html


24
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 24, 2017, 07:34:39 AM »
ScottishPower has won the rights for two massive U.S. wind farms that could total a combined 4 GW.

The two sites include the 1,500-MW Vineyard Wind project, which will span 115 square miles south of Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts, and an unnamed project in North Carolina that will generate up to 2,500 MW, Business Insider reported.

Vineyard Wind alone will be three times the size of the largest offshore wind project in the United Kingdom. That project is scheduled to begin operations in 2022, while the North Carolina project will become operational by 2025.

Keith Anderson, head of ScottishPower, said the company might have the largest offshore development pipeline of any company in America.

"The cost differential between onshore and offshore was so large that a lot of people never thought that America would be interested,” he said. "But now we're staring to see the process pick up speed as the cost of offshore wind comes down."

http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2017/05/scottish-power-wins-right-to-build-two-u-s-offshore-wind-projects.html

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 24, 2017, 01:26:37 AM »
I put very little trust in EIA predictions.  (High trust in their historical data.)

I suspect the EIA soft pedals things like coal and oil use dropping in the future out of concern that some members of Congress will come after their budget.

26
If self-driving cars work and turn out to be much safer than human drivers there are some benefits that I had not thought about - removing lots of costly societal overhead:

- Lots of unemployed personal injury and insurance company lawyers
- Less busy court systems and policemen spending time combating serious crime rather than cruising in their souped up macho cars
- Less business for the "independent" experts that will say whatever means they keep getting repeat business. My sister has this after an accident, her medical experts correctly stating her inability to do her job and the insurance medical experts swearing blind that she could still do that same job

If we can cash in this EV/Self-drive dividend as an actual reduction in consumption, which will actually improve general wellness/happiness, will help reduce reduce society's CO2 and general ecological footprint.

Integrate with a proper high speed train system and we can also remove much of the airline/airport infrastructure.

A decrease in hospital visits.  Less physical therapy.  Less permanent disability.

Fewer tow truck calls. 

27
The new product areas for the car manufacturers have a high probability of being less profitable, with possible lower sales

GM bought a big hunk of Lyft.  That, I assume, gives them a route to becoming a robotaxi company that builds its own vehicles.

GM is also pulling out of Europe.  There's some sort of new thinking happening inside GM.

28
What I can find, here and there, suggests that Ford was looking for a new CEO who could run the company better - and - transition to new tech quicker.


Bill Ford: I didn't fire Mark Fields, he chose to resign after a discussion he and I had Friday.      
Ford needs innovation, Executive Chairman Bill Ford told CNBC during an interview Monday.

"We need to be quicker in our decision making ... have clarity in our messaging and communication, and also need a leader who's transformed a company before," the chairman said, discussing the automaker's decision to tap Jim Hackett as its next CEO.

Ford has said that they don't expect to have a self-driving car before 2021.  That's got to scare them because other companies may grab a huge portion of the robotaxi market before Ford can get a foot in the door.

Expect a major drop in overall vehicle demand as we move to robotaxis.  It's a serious game of musical chairs that the car companies are being forced into.  Someone is going to be late to sit down and fall on their butt.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: May 23, 2017, 08:30:34 PM »
Wyoming has  some honkin' big wind farms under development.  Coal may still have enough political power to mess with wind, but look for that to change.

All it's going to take is for Wyoming's wind industry to start employing a lot more people than Wyoming's coal industry.  And that shouldn't take long.

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 23, 2017, 08:28:05 PM »
I just emailed the IEA WEO chart to the IEA along with the question -

"Do you folks ever sit back and ponder whether you're getting stuff right?"


I don't expect to hear back....

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 23, 2017, 08:20:11 PM »
Perhaps a crystal ball might bring them closer.

Perhaps they could quit toadying up to their fossil fuel masters.

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 23, 2017, 08:18:33 PM »
Onboard slow chargers from 110v might be a cheap option, and a powered parking meter just makes sense everywhere.

Sure.  Or 240 vac.  The average EV can recharge in three hours on a 240 vac outlet.  Just need a card swipe or cellphone activated billing system.

If vandalism/unplugging is a problem then we could move to wireless charging.

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 23, 2017, 05:18:38 PM »
I've seen some rest stops like that.  I expect we'll see more.

In urban areas (not dense city centers) I expect we'll see the rapid charging spots at grocery stores, gyms, shopping malls.  Places where people are going to want to go anyway. 

In dense city centers rapid charging may be installed in parking garages  where there's the mechanism for charging drivers if they leave their car in the parking space once charging has finished.  Parking garages and lots should be full of lower wattage outlets for those who park for hours.

34
Makita has earned itself a deservedly wonderful reputation.
Decades ago I contemplated the design of an autonomous lawnmower that would retreat to a solar doghouse to charge itself, then mow the yard at night, silently. Major problems were keeping it from eating basking kittens and rendering it safe from predatory types supporting themselves by hustling slightly used lawnmowers.
If these problems can be resolved, pushing a lawnmower may be passe. Otherwise Neven probably purchased the only lawnmower he'll need until they ship him off to an old folks facility.  :)


Terry


You mean like this one?



Review of ten best...

http://www.toptenreviews.com/home/outdoor/best-robot-lawn-mowers/


The world is going right along without us, Terry.

http://www.husqvarna.com/us/products/robotic-lawn-mowers/

35
Anthropogenic global CO2 emissions would have to fall by at least 50% to stop the atmospheric CO2 numbers from rising

That's something that I knew but for some reason was not thinking clearly. Obviously it will take more than a small slowdown in emissions to make a noticeable drop in atmospheric CO2 levels.  Senior moment, I suppose....

36
After you've used it some please give us an update.  I've been looking at getting one for the orchard as I've got multiple Makita tools (drill, sawzall, weed trimmer) that could battery share.

And now I go to try to fix the starter cord on my 30 year old gasomower....

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 22, 2017, 11:26:03 PM »
Texaco was successful in the early days, I've been told, partly because they had dependably clean restrooms.  Tomorrow it might be "free [what's better than wi-fi?] and clean restrooms while you charge".  To make this "Oil and Gas" related, we'll have to make the term "gas station" disassociated with ff, somehow.  Future advert: "Come to our 'What a gas' Station and see previews of the best holograms."

I spend time in Bangkok most years.  They've built new highways and their gas stations include great restroom facilities.  Very clean.  I especially like the urinals which are located on the back wall of the restrooms, out in the open with a partial roof over for rain shelter and a short privacy wall behind.  Peeing out in the open air as it should be done.

What I see in the future along main US travel routes are charging oases.  Parking places with outlets.  Multiple restaurant choices (food court style).  Some shopping.  Place to walk the dog.  Free wifi.  Maybe even a short walking trail where folks could get some exercise.


38
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 22, 2017, 10:40:19 PM »
The gas stations with which I am familiar don't have much space to install rapid chargers.  And those lots are going to need major cleanup when the stations go under.

Fast food and other restaurant parking lots as well as shopping center/grocery store parking lots seem best to me.  People who park to charge will have something to do rather than watch gasmobile drivers fill their tanks.  And people can combine their routine shopping and charging.

Some people are going to need a public place to charge until we (hopefully) install a lot of curbside charging.

39
By 2022, we will have more than ten purely electric passenger cars in series.

I wonder what that means.  Will there be ten really distinct EVs or ten cars with slight differences?

Ten different EVs one after another, because none of them really succeeds?   ;D :o


Tesla has two and getting ready to release a third.  As far as I know they only plan on adding a Model 3 sized crossover (?) and a new Roadster to their fleet. 

Ten seems like a lot.  Are they perhaps talking about a two door, a four door and a convertible version of the same basic car?

Daimler has created a new sub-brand, known as Mercedes-Benz EQ, that will specialize in selling EVs alone.

Likely they plan on offering cars at different price points, like their C-class, E-class, etc. that they have today.  That makes room for several sedans, SUVs, sportsters, probably a van or two.

Now we need a Toyota/Hyundai type company that specializes in the sub-luxury market.

40
...
We've now received very strong EV signals from Mercedes, Volvo, Ford, VW and who else?
Tesla  :P ::) :o ;D

Well, of course.  And Nissan/Renault.  Those companies are already in the EV business at a serious level.  What we've (I've) been waiting to see is when the other car companies admit that the future is EVs and that they are going to be serious builders.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 22, 2017, 09:25:42 PM »
Total should use that $300 million and buy a solar farm or two.  As those gas stations are torn down over the next few years the panels will be sold off at a loss and all the installation costs will be lost.

A solar farm could keep making them money for a century.

“EVs will make up 15 to 30 percent of new vehicles by 2030

EVs may make up as much as 90% of new vehicle sales by 2030.  Or higher.  I suppose one should expect oil companies to change their stance slowly, but they better not be too slow or they'll have a Kodak moment.

42
(Ford Motors) also appointed a new executive in charge of “strategy and business model development for electrified vehicles and autonomous vehicles

Attention!  Bursting dam. 

We've now received very strong EV signals from Mercedes, Volvo, Ford, VW and who else?

43
By 2022, we will have more than ten purely electric passenger cars in series.

I wonder what that means.  Will there be ten really distinct EVs or ten cars with slight differences?

Tesla has two and getting ready to release a third.  As far as I know they only plan on adding a Model 3 sized crossover (?) and a new Roadster to their fleet. 

Ten seems like a lot.  Are they perhaps talking about a two door, a four door and a convertible version of the same basic car?

44
"Once we have 200 mile range compact and midsized EVs selling for under $25k I think it's all over for ICEVs."
I'm hoping (expecting) my 2002 Prius will make it to the day it can be replaced with such an EV.

Can you get another four years out of it?  That may be all it will take.

If not, buy a moderately used replacement Prius.  Or a used lower range EV if one would work for you.

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: May 22, 2017, 07:57:10 PM »
According to the Financial Times  there are 14 large battery factories in operation or under construction worldwide — 9 of them in China.




Tesla is expected to announce the location of four more Gigafactories later this year.  CATL has stated that it intends to be the world's largest battery manufacturer.  Looks like there will be a huge increase in factory capacity over the next few years.

Time to get out of the oil business....

46
I'm just not seeing much trend here...

Oct   2016   405.11
Nov   2016   405.91
Dec   2016   405.49
Jan   2017   406.04
Feb   2017   405.90
Mar   2017   405.50
Apr   2017   406.14

Maybe a flat trend.

47
The Financial Times tells the story of Torotrak, a British company that has been working for 6 years on a high-tech turbocharger that will help make internal combustion engines more efficient in order to meet increasingly rigorous emissions standards. It was in talks with such global automakers as Volkswagen, General Motors, and Toyota about using its device in their cars until recently. Then suddenly, the conversations came to an abrupt halt.

Adam Robson, head of Torotrak, tells the Financial Times the companies all started telling him the same thing — “We think the shift to electric vehicles is accelerating and we have only limited R&D money to invest and we are going to put all of it into the electric car revolution.” Robson says, “This is a colossal structural shift and it’s come at a pace that has never occurred in people’s careers before in this industry.”

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/19/renewable-energy-unstoppable-declares-financial-times/


If that's the case then most car manufacturers are right now about ready to release longer range EVs and expect that they will have to compete in a vigorous market.  Once we have 200 mile range compact and midsized EVs selling for under $25k I think it's all over for ICEVs.

I'm guessing the market will have almost totally shifted by 2030.  And I hope before....

48
There's little I can personally do to keep CO2 levels from rising a lot more.  My application for Global Dictator was rejected.

What I think I can do is to help people identify ways to cut CO2/GHG emissions and give them encouraging news.  If we celebrate small victories it's more likely that we will keep working and not give up in despair.

(Sunny is not my disposition....)

49
Here's some recent data on Tesla battery performance.




Range falls from 100% to close to 90% over the first 50,000 miles or so.  And then looks like it will stay just above 90% for over  200,000 miles.

Tesla is moving to a new battery chemistry which they think will retain at least 90% charge over 300,000 miles.  Before 300k most cars have gone to the crusher.

That suggests that Tesla EVs will have a battery of some value to sell for grid/home storage work when the car is worn out.

50
I spent a lot of my research career watching data streams.  I've learned that when slopes start to change it's a good time to pay attention.

And, in this case, we're seeing global CO2 emissions flattening.  So at some point, ENSO events considered, we should expect a flattening of ppm at Mauna Loa. 

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