« on: April 22, 2017, 08:06:01 PM »
It tells us that there is a high level of variability in potential outcomes....(emphasis mine)
The Beaufort sea cracks and sea ice in general may be refreezing at a good pace compared to last year even with no MYI. Cold temperatures and lack of movement again and perhaps thin ice negative feedback since January.
If some Beaufort sea ice survives this year, there may not be any record soon. It all, still, hangs on this summers weather.
That's a lot of conditionals right there, seaicesailor. Back to the numbers/science, what is the trend? What is the statistical uncertainty associated with the data we have? What does it tell us?
It is exactly that uncertainty that caused me to choose 2040-2050. While weather may change, and we *will* see SIE bottoming out under 1 million KM2 soon, it will take far longer for net enthalpy to catch up such that we can expect ice to disappear in summer completely.
This does not indicate not one jot less concern on my part than yours for what's happening. It means I am thinking carefully. Maybe you should make fewer value judgements about other participants, and perhaps consider the questions they pose. You could do worse than have some respect for that.
Have you thought for instance, how the ice might reach an end of summer SIE of greater than 1 million KM2 after 2030? Your stridency suggest to me you have not. I urge you to bring more light and less heat to the discussion.