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Messages - jdallen

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Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: Today at 03:06:06 AM »
I disagree that the chance for ice free September or even August is 0. The chance is certainly low and decreasing but it is not 0. A melt similar to 2012 will be enough to puts us in "virtuallly ice free"  territory. The chance for that is low but is there.

I think everyone should be at least aware of the possible danger and planning and preparation for the worst are very much in order with the caveat that it is a low probability event.
I hesitate to put a number on it and simply call it doubtful for the pure reason that the outcome is entirely dependent on weather; which at this juncture is entirely too unpredictable for us to make any rational, skillfull prediction.

In short, making any quantitative statement is rolling the dice and hoping your guessed outcome is close to how things turn out.  I don't think we're in any position to do that yet.

Conditions certainly are very dangerous for exactly the reason that there *exists a risk*  we could lose the ice.  That in and by itself is sufficient justification for alarm, even without the actual event taking place. We should never have gotten here.

So, it is a matter of random probability; in this pass through of the seasons just exactly how will our multi-armed pendulum swing?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 28, 2017, 10:34:44 PM »
Uh oh. Could we be ice free by july?

Am very depressed over this now.
No. Some regions are likely to be hit very hard, but it is still unlikely we will have an ice free Arctic this season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 28, 2017, 10:09:26 AM »
DMIs model shows temps above freezing point over a large part of Beaufort Sea as well as partly over the CAB.
The Hudson and Foxe BASIN ad well. Wall-to-wall meltponds visible in Hudson's Bay.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 28, 2017, 09:33:17 AM »
First attachment is Uni Bremen sea ice concentration.   I wonder if it rained on the Beaufort Sea.
EOSDIS worldview visual for 5/27 suggests significant melt pond formation has already taken place across much of the Beaufort and western ACA. That may be what Bremen is showing.

Best part of a quarter million KM2 of ice looks like it is rapidly turning to slush as we watch.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 24, 2017, 11:08:26 PM »
Barentsz sea extent may be high, but the ice is decidedly not in a happy place.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 24, 2017, 11:02:03 PM »
Will it keep on keeping on?

It's done, well and truly.

There's not any else to shatter, and what's there won't re-knit in the next few days.

In short, *every* bit of ice which isn't land fast (a little along the ESS/Laptev which is doomed, a little along Greenland which hopefully is not) is in motion and vulnerable.  That includes virtually all of our multi-year ice. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 23, 2017, 06:49:26 PM »
Seems like we are on the verge to see some decent action in work soon.

Yes, the Atlantic side is to blame for why we are lagging in extent numbers. Despite fairly cool weather conditions in Kara Sea, the ice there will start to see some major damage soon. The same should be true for the ice between Franz Josefs land and Svalbard but especially in the Labrador Sea.

At least 1-2, maybe even 3, Century breaks should not be of bound for the next 7 days as the Arctic continues to heat up.
Looking at the Barentsz, Kara, Labraffor and Greenland seas, I fully anticipate major flash melting in June that will have multiple centuries, possibly multiple double centuries of melt as the thin broad extent gets heated, and ice less than 1.5 meters their virtually evaporates.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 07:12:24 AM »
All the ice between the Beaufort and Chukchi is starting to break up.
A close up look.

Doesn't ice generally start fracturing extensively at this time in the Beaufort and Chukchi? I am more interested in how it breaks up which reveals the overall strength (thickness, temperature etc.) of the ice. Does it quickly turn into a melange or rubble, very small floes, or do we see it fracturing in large rafts, rhomboids and such? From that image, it looks like a mix (perhaps a little heavy on rubble) but I do not know the scale of the image. How large are the largest floes?
Not this early. Not this extensively.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: May 20, 2017, 08:55:56 PM »
Did the guys who decided to put the seed vault where it is on Spitzbergen get their climate change forecasts from Breitbart News, and / or Scott Pruitt and / or Lamar Smith ?
They were using the best information they had at the time using the resources available. There is no need to insult them.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 17, 2017, 08:18:28 AM »
From the IJIS thread, SIE down nearly a century today, and the GFS model shows high pressure building over the Pacific side of the Arctic and expanding to cover most of the basin over the next two weeks.  Add also, temperatures warming over much of the region to near or above freezing.

Pretty much, perfect weather to accelerate melt pond formation and a rapid slide into extensive early surface melt.

Tropical Tidbits link for reference and the curious.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 13, 2017, 09:03:12 AM »
Same Scene, different source, TOPAZ4 + a comparison with 2016 & 2012
Taken as an assemblage, I'd say they also portend the appearance of extensive melt ponds on the Pacific side, from the Amundsen Gulf all the way to the ESS.

Interesting yet disturbing to see if it pans out.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 13, 2017, 06:54:41 AM »
How is the situation wrt sea ice measured by NSIDC restricted to the Arctic Basin regions?

NSIDC extent has dropped from the 100% ice cover and is among the front runners (well behind 2016).

That can not be said of area, still in the middle of the pack and behind most of the recent (2006 and later) years.
For all of that, most of the difference in both extent and area is in three areas:  the Barents sea, Greenland Sea and Baffin Bay.

It will dissappear rapidly.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 04, 2017, 03:58:16 AM »
2. The ice that is thicker than average, can easily leave the Arctic Ocean following the Fram Strait route (according to PIOMAS thickness anomaly).

It's doesn't even have to move. The Atlantic flow around Svalbard typical of the last few years no doubt is already tearing at it.  It won't last through June even if it doesn't move a centimeter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 01, 2017, 07:12:49 AM »

Lately I've been thinking that the best way to avoid cataclysmic global warming would be to cull a majority of the human population.

Now, the best way to do that would be a nuclear war.

Maybe Trump does care about Global Warming after all!
And that, is what we used to call, throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

There is a lot of buzz right now about Trump and discussions about N. Korea. (April 24, 2017)

Some of us have picked up articles about substantial numbers of US vessels transiting the Canal starting a few days ago.  I've found some in various Spanish language site, but am keen to find as close to original source as possible.  I'm suspicious english language search engines may not be picking up the threads on this; certainly our news outlets are not.

Here's an example of what I found:

The Beaufort sea cracks and sea ice in general may be refreezing at a good pace compared to last year even with no MYI. Cold temperatures and lack of movement again and perhaps thin ice negative feedback since January.
If some Beaufort sea ice survives this year, there may not be any record soon. It all, still, hangs on this summers weather.
(emphasis mine)
That's a lot of conditionals right there, seaicesailor. Back to the numbers/science, what is the trend? What is the statistical uncertainty associated with the data we have? What does it tell us?
It tells us that there is a high level of variability in potential outcomes. 

It is exactly that uncertainty that caused me to choose 2040-2050.  While weather may change, and we *will* see SIE bottoming out under 1 million KM2 soon, it will take far longer for net enthalpy to catch up such that we can expect ice to disappear in summer completely.

This does not indicate not one jot less concern on my part than yours for what's happening. It means I am thinking carefully.  Maybe you should make fewer value judgements about other participants, and perhaps consider the questions they pose. You could do worse than have some respect for that.

Have you thought for instance, how the ice might reach an end of summer SIE of greater than 1 million KM2 after 2030?  Your stridency suggest to me you have not.  I urge you to bring more light and less heat to the discussion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 20, 2017, 08:42:44 PM »
So much data saying Melt (DMI, Arctic anomaly, Fram export, destruction of  sea ice sheets integrity from multiple observations  etc. etc.). And yet jaxa sea ice decline remains at a glacial pace, and sea ice volume not declining yet.
And still at least 2 weeks before getting April PIOMAS  update. Am I the only one in confusion ?
I think the answer is dispersion, GC.  Less ice, spread more thinly.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 20, 2017, 09:28:36 AM »
Browsing around tonight in worldview, there are hundreds of thousands of KM2 that look like they are right on the edge of vanishing; it's not just the Bering.  If  you look in the Kara, along the margins of the Barents, the Bering, the Okhotsks, Baffin, the Greenland, you will see huge expanses like that shown below. 

This image is from south central Baffin, and the image is about 250,000KM2 total.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 20, 2017, 09:16:03 AM »
Look for major drops in extent in the Bering over the next few days.

I read the Booth paper quickly and it does suggest that HADGEM2-ES explains a part (but not all) of the 'bump' in temperature in the 30's-40's. Also, I understand that their HADGEM2-ES run is mostly driven by indirect (not direct) aerosol forcing. If I understand that correctly, it makes assumptions about cloud coverage affected by aerosols.

Now I'm not sure yet how important their findings are, but I do see that this paper (Booth et al) draws criticism in the scientific literature.

For example, here, by Zhang et al 2012 responds to Booth et al :
However, here it is shown that there are major discrepancies between the HadGEM2-ES simulations and observations in the North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content, in the spatial pattern of multidecadal SST changes within and outside the North Atlantic, and in the subpolar North Atlantic sea surface salinity. These discrepancies may be strongly influenced by, and indeed in large part caused by, aerosol effects. It is also shown that the aerosol effects simulated in HadGEM2-ES cannot account for the observed anticorrelation between detrended multidecadal surface and subsurface temperature variations in the tropical North Atlantic. These discrepancies cast considerable doubt on the claim that aerosol forcing drives the bulk of this multidecadal

Don't you just LOVE science and the scientific process ?
Indeed; that said, it causes me to question somewhat the reference to that warming period as an indication of base-line "natural" increases driving Ding et. al.'s  conclusion, even if not responsible for *most* of the increase.

How would we eliminate human-sourced aerosols from baseline calculations of natural variability?

Quick off the cuff thought - I'm piqued by the idea the 30s/early 40s temperature bump could be a result of decreased aerosols (SO2 in particular) tied to the reduction in industrial zctivity and fossil fuel consumption during the depression.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 18, 2017, 07:14:04 AM »
A stark illustration of how difficult our situation is.

Two daylight captures of the northern Bering, Chukchi, eastern ESS and Western Beaufort.

First is 04/17/2016

Second is 04/17/2017.

[Edit: Added for comparison, 05/17/2016]
[ADDITIONAL edit - I got the name stamps wrong on two of the images. 
From top to bottom:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 17, 2017, 05:16:03 PM »
Very difficult to vector that sort of mobility into any prediction for September.
What is frightening about these animations of the Beaufort and Chukchi is how fractured much of the ice is. Large portions look like rubble.
Both true statements.

Also true, 2017 open water in the Chukchi and Bering seas has caught up to and passed 2016 in almost a matter of hours.  Conditions appear extraordinarily volatile.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 17, 2017, 07:33:31 AM »
Worldview is down. Uni-Bremen is down. So, I went with what I could get.
Beaufort 15th(left) vs. 16th
I highly recommend using the zoom.

Dramatic and massive changes.  It looks to be catching up with 2016 pretty rapidly.

Less heat, more light, everyone.  Prof. Ding has engaged us in a lively and productive scientific exchange to both explain the paper and hear our questions and criticism.

If you wish to convince him to abandon his findings, you must present compelling fact and arguments.  This requires patience and careful thought.  if you sought rapid results and gratification, I suggest you discard that expectation.

Your arguments will require:

1) work as thorough and compelling as his own and
2) time for everyone one (including the good professor) to digest it.

... if we want to have a good understanding while monitoring the comeback of Arctic sea ice. ...
You are joking, right?
We are already committed to the complete and irreversible (on a human time scale) disappearance year round of Arctic sea ice.

That kind of makes me want to shut down the blog and forum, and build a big bunker. And so the narrative I tell myself (and hopefully others once I get back to blogging) is that what we need to fight for, is getting Arctic sea ice back after we lose it. Preferably prevent it from going ice-free all year round.

why would you intentionally attempt to assign a value of 'natural variability' to a dynamic system that is in the process of catastrophic collapse?  Is it because the collapse is not what you expected?

If it is all collapsing, there's not much sense in thinking about what the best way to do research is. Or post on a forum. And what I've said in reply to AndrewB.
Bunkers are attractive but in the long run ineffective.

I appreciate greatly Dr. Ding jumping into our discussion, even as I struggle to fully grasp the nuances of argument. His doing so is the quintessence of good scholarship.

While I generally understand his teams methodology, which in context of process seems sound, I am wrestling with the label "natural variation" to describe "unforced" departure from average.

That's a big bucket, and I'm wondering how much of that is anthropomorphic change outside of the Arctic translating into it. Perhaps, Dr. Ding, you could address that thought?

Last thought to Neven - even if we cannot recover the Arctic as it was,  we still must consider the potential loss of billions of lives due to climate change. That deserves our continued discussion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 13, 2017, 01:05:43 AM »
Given the forecast, we can expect more of that. I'll try and make an updated animation.

Edit: I still had the template from last year:
2017 Beaufort looks to be trying mightily to catch up with 2016's open water.  It becomes more clear looking at it in Worldview, where you can see in particular just how shattered the ice is.  There may be more coverage than last year, but it is not robust. The Amundsen Gulf in particular has disintegrated into a bowl of ice cubes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 12, 2017, 09:02:53 AM »
The latest Arctic Sea Ice News is out:


New work by an international team led by Igor Polyakov of the University of Alaska Fairbanks provides strong evidence that Atlantic layer heat is now playing a prominent role in reducing winter ice formation in the Eurasian Basin, which is manifested as more summer ice loss. According to their analysis, the ice loss due to the influence of Atlantic layer heat is comparable in magnitude to the top down forcing by the atmosphere.

This is an unexpected and very bad finding.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 07, 2017, 08:34:14 AM »
Fragility of sea ice revealed by a topographic constraint: circular ice breaking area radiates from an island north of the Kara Sea: <snip>
Great Image, VeliAlbertKallio!

That demonstrates categorically just how vulnerable the ice is in that region.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 05, 2017, 05:04:25 AM »
Baffin is really moving some ice lately.

Indeed.  Davis Straight is about 330 km wide at the narrowest there (on the Arctic Circle, thereabouts).  Measuring a big floe 17th to 23rd March which moved 100 km over those five days and assuming an average ice thickness of 1 metre gives an export of 6.6 cubic kilometres of ice per day.  That is darn a big ice-block to freeze, and quite a loss to the basin.  I've no data to tell whether this is in any way an unusual loss rate and how it compares, say, with Fram et al.  But it sure is an impressive number.
That movement is un-blocking ice coming out of Hudson's bay and opening the NW Passage up to pressure from tidal movement.

Looking at all of the exits - Bering, Barents, Fram, Baffin - it seems like a general "Un-corking" is taking place.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: April 05, 2017, 05:00:49 AM »
Adam Ash
Indeed!  A simple drag and drop of previous years shows the potential for a far-too-close-for comfort minimum.
That smells like a Blue Ocean Event.

The fat singing lady always makes her own damn mind  ;)
Indeed.  No prediction of Blue Ocean here until after I see the numbers at the end of May.  Far too much depends on weather and albedo.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 04, 2017, 04:07:08 AM »
Last but not least, some detail using Aqua Modis bands 7-2-1 that shows just exactly what happens when that ice reaches the "scorching" Atlantic heat influx we've been watching for the last 2 years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 04, 2017, 03:51:30 AM »
Using aqua-modis band-31 day, here's what I call "March to the Exit" - MYI passing out the Fram and Victoria strait into the Barentsz and Greenland seas to its doom.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 04, 2017, 03:29:22 AM »
The ice keeps pushing back against the open water southwest of Novaya Zemlya. Given the wind forecast I think it's going to ice over again, so no super-unprecedented on that score. But we'll have to see what happens after that (that region only opened after the first week of May for years like 2011 and 2012).
Nice having sunlight back to see what's actually going on.

Same time frame in Worldview suggests dispersion to me rather than any sort of freezing.

<click to animate>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 03, 2017, 10:02:26 PM »
In addition to being  more susceptible to melt, the ice has less protection against export.
If it can flow this freely now, what about a month from now? Or two, three months from now?
I actually somewhat expect export to support extent - cause it to "run in place" - but reduce concentration.  I think the effects of export *now* will be more aparent *later* in the season, as in after June.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 03, 2017, 09:28:37 PM »
JO, what "extent impacts" were you expecting?
<more snippage>
Will we see a rapid cliff once some condition is met because the ice is too thin to resist?
<and even more snippage>
I expect a cliff in 2-3 weeks as effective received insolation pushes past an average effective level of 3 KWH/Day/M2 at 85N and below. (Incident is already much higher). When that happens, the Barentsz, the Bering, the Kara, the Okhotsk and parts of Baffin and Hudson's bays will see dramatic melt backs.  We could see a solid week of century drops.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 03, 2017, 06:27:22 AM »
IJIS has extent running in place.  It would appear dispersion is taking place.

Generated this quick animation from worldview using 12KM Sea ice concentration.  It doesn't give a lot of detail, but does demonstrate how the ice is spreading out - which unfortunately in the Barentsz means into rather warm water.

<click to animate>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: April 03, 2017, 04:31:45 AM »
Year over year 2016 vs 2017 comparison of ice temps in the Hudson/Baffin and environs.

2017 pretty clearly has a lot more available heat sooner than 2016.  Entirely subjectively, the quality of the ice using visible light suggests to me the Hudson is 1-2 weeks ahead of (last years) schedule, in spite of low late season temperatures.

Palette is Sea Ice brightness temperatures 6KM 89V using the "rainbow" palette squashed to 182-277K

EOSDIS Worldview basic link:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 29, 2017, 11:16:58 PM »
When it comes to these temperature anomalies... which I've been watching since at least November... I really have to wonder how much they matter this time of year (over ice, in particular).

If there's a patch of the arctic where normally it is -40 C/F, but instead due to huge anomalies it is -10 C, so what? It doesn't melt, melt ponds don't happen... I feel like the thermodynamics don't change...  until it gets above freezing.

Do we expect anything to come of these high anomalies, where temperatures still stay below freezing?

Heat flux out of the ice ( if we assume linear force formulation -  flux proportional to ΔT) is a quarter roughly compare to normal... it takes four times as long to thicken at the same level..

... presuming enthalpy remains constant.  The problem is, we have heat flow from depth, such that below a given temperature threshold, the ice won't thicken at all, because heat is replenished at the water/ice interface faster than it can be transferred out of the ice to atmosphere.  At -10C, ice more than 1M thick will actually start melting from the bottom, given enough time.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: March 28, 2017, 06:37:18 AM »
All our lady friends might prefer that we make diamonds from the carbon. ;)
Pile upon pile of them. Millions, no billions of them.

If they became cheap because of excess supply, would they still want them?  ;)
Graphite is much easier.
Carbonates are easier still.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 24, 2017, 07:31:52 PM »
I believe it to be a good possibility that the  Beaufort ice might be the only ice to offer any resistance to disintegration and melt this year. Everything else is ready to go already.

If we are depending on the Beaufort to be the strong ice for the upcoming melt season, we are pretty well screwed.
The Beaufort isn't thick enough.  Most of the ice there is under 2M.

And Rob, since you asked this question "I wonder what the authors were thinking when they drew their conclusions(?)", my answer is that they already had the preposterous claim that the disappearance of sea ice is mostly due to natural variability in mind, and just found the models and performed the simulations (which they call "experiments") that would somehow justify their a priori conclusion.

AndrewB - did you bother to read Eric Steig's comment at Stoat's?  What is with this constant character assassination of climate scientists in these threads lately?  I feel like I'm at WUWT.

So, we have a peer-reviewed paper by a plethora of well-respected and leading climate scientists that challenge your beliefs.  OTOH we have a few paragraphs by a non-scientist on a blog.  Occam's razor would lead you to believe the non-scientist's blog post is correct.  Good grief, Charlie Brown.
Careful how you apply that razor - it may be cutting things you want to keep. You've used an ad hominem argument against an ad hominem statement.

Criticism from non-professionals is still relevant when well founded.  The correct take on this should be, how well supported is the critique, and does it raise reasonable questions?

Pertinent to the first statement - a conclusion against paradigm does not necessarily establish any fact regarding the person (s) making it.  Who wrote a paper is fairly irrelevant.  What is relevant is its content.

That is what should be under discussion, not personalities.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 07:20:28 PM »

Like jdallen and Juan, my larger concern is the state of the ice poleward north of Greenland.  Since the 20th, in addition to the retreat from the Kara, there appears to be a general anti-clockwise rotation that is breaking up all of the ice around the pole from 85 degrees north. This is most evident on the Canadian side of the pole, but also seems to be appearing in the Russian side.


Welcome to the age of the "whole arctic gyre"

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 07:38:24 AM »
EOSDIS image, aqua-modis, palette squashed to 230-255K, white to green/black (hottest)

The largest concentration of thickest MYI in the arctic lies in the center of the field of view, mostly between N. Greenland and the Pole.

It is fractured to a faire-the-well, poised to get pushed into the FJL/Svalbard/Fram killing ground, as it is pounded by the strong persistent westerlies roaring around the low pressure systems spinning into the CAB from the N. Atlantic.

Not a good way to start things.  I wouldn't expect to see ice like this until at least June.

(Edit: replaced the original screen shot as it turned the > 255K regions white.  Link:,palette=green_1,min=228.7,max=256.5,squash),Coastlines&t=2017-03-21&z=3&v=-1178165.0457067718,-1091186.6011562506,1607114.9542932282,338317.3988437494

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 22, 2017, 07:20:33 AM »
A couple areas that are noteworthy today.

Indeed.  The Kara is just getting hammered and will continue to be for at least the next 10 days.  The Hudson starting to come apart is a little unexpected, and not at the same time.  Ice there in spite of recent cold temperatures has never had a chance to really set up and is quite a bit less solid and less thick than I've seen previously (which admittedly is only 5 years...).

Both breaking open will increase insolation uptake at a point very early in the melt season.

It implication of that from the Hudson is not that great.  Ice leaving the Kara is much more troublesome, as it will introduce heat at high latitude and eliminate ice which buttresses both the CAB and Laptev.  Admittedly the Barentsz is more important for the CAB, but it all works together, and without some integration we will see albedo reductions in the high arctic even with out melt ponds, as peripheral ice melts, and permits the main pack to disperse.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: March 20, 2017, 10:04:17 PM »
Still not looking good for a recovery.
The trend is on the downward march I think.
Looks like March 7th was the record low maximum extent on record, at least by this measure.

I'd agree not - we've pretty much declared max - and I suggest we close this thread for the season.

Even if it is wrong, the scientific way to find out is publish and be damned. (or not damned)
Hi crandles,
Again, I am not even arguing about the scientific value of the Ding paper per se here, or how it was worded, or how many caveats it was filled with.

I am talking about giving the "merchants of doubt" an excellent basis for further delaying the urgent and radical emissions reductions policies that need to be put in place to avoid the worst consequences of global warming - including famines, wars, forced migration, etc, and the suffering and ultimately death that these will bring to hundreds of millions of human beings.

So, are you a moral human being first and (questionable) scientist second, or does your oversized ego take precedence? In the case of Ding and his nine(!) co-authors, it seems the latter.

"Science sans conscience n'est que ruine de l'âme." - Rabelais

Now, of course since they have already been published, they have legitimized the clearly false assertion that the year-round disappearance of Arctic sea ice which will occur over the coming few decades is mostly due to "natural climate variability". You could demonstrate that they are entirely wrong, de-construct all the fallacies in their tortuous reasoning, dissect their various logic mistakes, point to each and every dubious assumption they make in the paper, it wouldn't matter: they cannot be unpublished. And clearly, people with such an oversized ego are not going to retract themselves or even admit that they were wrong and wrote a piss-poor excuse of a climate science paper.
So there you have it.
Arctic sea ice is going to disappear over the coming years but now the takeaway from this man-made disaster is that it's mostly "natural climate variability". Crappy (un)science is the new normal.
Talk about improving communications between climate scientists and the general public!
Actually, I don't think they asserted most of the loss was from natural variation, and I suggest the philosophical discussion get moved to an appropriate thread.

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