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Messages - wili

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Permafrost / Re: Modelling permafrost carbon feedback
« on: September 11, 2017, 07:59:29 PM »
We will now inevitably pass the crucial tipping point where cold regions ecosystems will be almost all lost, even under the most optimistic (ie unrealistic) assumptions about emissions.

"Even with the most optimistic CO2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions"

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 08, 2017, 10:33:38 PM »
Per WaPo: "Rush Limbaugh indicates he’s evacuating Palm Beach days after suggesting Hurricane Irma is fake news"  ;D ;D

And shouldn't all those cruise ships be helping to evacuate people? wtf?

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 08, 2017, 08:34:32 PM »
Latest Euro has Irma hitting Naples. Lots of warm water on that side:

Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: September 07, 2017, 03:08:30 PM »
6goucho, good  points. But there are those who claim that most of the what you call 'mysticism' in Buddhism are not core to the philosophy/religion, and are in a way accretions. See Buddhism without beliefs:

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 07, 2017, 01:01:48 AM »

--One, maybe two, deaths so far (surprisingly low!)
--95% of structures suffered some damage
-- 60% of residents are now homeless
-- Prime Minister says country will need outside assistance to rebuild, ''devastation is unlike anything I have ever seen, Barbuda is pretty much uninhabitable''
-- PM - "I felt like crying... one of the worst feelings I have ever felt in my entire life"
-- Also said that if Jose threatens the island, it will need to be fully evacuated; he expects it might be needed regardless

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 06, 2017, 09:53:13 PM »
Thanks for that clarification, jai. I shudder to think...

oren, the problem these days is that gw has heated the water more deeply than before, so even as evaporation cools the surface, what upwells to take its place is often just about as hot.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 06, 2017, 08:22:37 PM »
Jai, that's strange, 'cause I swear I saw a report form NYT that said that the roof had come off of the police station at Berbuda, forcing the officers to take shelter in the fire station. There were other reports of damage, but not of massive deaths or anything.

But now I can't find reference to that at the NYT site. Hard to tell what's fake news anymore.

Yeah, there have been reports from the island...just look at comments to the post you linked to, which includes a link to this statement from the local official:

With regard to Barbuda, preliminary reports indicate damage to rooves and to some buildings, but I have had no report of any fatalities. Barbuda too benefited from a high level of readiness, responsive to the urgings of the government and from the preparations that were made in advance, including the shelter constructed for that purpose.

New update from the scribbler:

And from cat6:

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 06, 2017, 07:13:03 AM »
The tiny island of Barbuda is now in the eye, apparently. If anyone survives and has means to transmit, perhaps by dawn we'll have pictures of just what kind of damage this thing can do.

Last recorded wind speeds were getting up to the 130 mph range.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 06, 2017, 02:10:13 AM »

Pressure down to 916...which should correspond to sustained winds at around 225 mph! But official wind speed is still 185. Thoughts?

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: September 03, 2017, 07:08:51 AM »

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 30, 2017, 08:17:44 PM »
I second Terry's appreciation toward sig, and I'll add jai to the mix!

(And of course our own Terry is always appreciated, even when we occasionally disagree, as crabby old men are wont to do occasionally! '-) )

Meanwhile, the scribbler is at it again, with some good context along the lines of what jai just posted:

According to Dr Michael Mann, Ocean surfaces in the Gulf of Mexico are fully 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer, on average, than they were just 30 years ago. This warming provides more energy for storms that do form. And this, in turn, raises the top potential intensity of storms.

Some scientists, like Dr. James Hansen, refer to this prevalence of worsening extremity as loading the climate dice. If, in the past, we were rolling with a die six with a 1 representing the lowest storm intensity and a 6 representing the highest, we’re now rolling with something like a die six +1. The result is that the strongest storms are stronger and the absolutely strongest storms have an ability to achieve previously unattainable strengths due to the fact that there’s a lot more energy there to kick them into a higher state.

Increased potential peak storm intensity as a climate change factor does not necessarily result in more tropical storms forming overall. That part of the science on hurricanes is highly uncertain. But that heat engine in the form of warmer surface waters is available for the storms that do form to tap. And that can make them a lot stronger and more damaging than they otherwise would have been.

Another metaphor I've seen recently is leading the might not hit the ball more frequently, but when you do, it is much more likely to go out of the park. (Might not make sense to those unfamiliar with US baseball and ways of cheating at the same, tho...)

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 30, 2017, 04:40:15 PM »
As far as I can see, they never actually do show an areal view of the reservoirs, but lots of amazing footage of just how much of this part of texas have basically become an inland sea:

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 30, 2017, 04:28:14 PM »

Sooo, to you, money is the only thing that is 'tangible'??

Following up on A-Teams helpful graphics, Addicks level is now over 109, so more and more of the dam is being overtopped, especially to the north.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 11:06:04 PM »
A-Team just wrote: "The first thing I learned is that the dams have no emergency spillways in the civil engineering sense. The earth berms are topped with paved roads in places and with decaying concrete aprons elsewhere. "

This just struck me too. Unbelievable.

"I had to ban Wade" Thanks, Nev.

hmmmm, yet another troll??

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 05:05:23 PM »
Houston police chief 'worried about how many bodies we're going to find'

At what point can we just call Dan B the denialist that he seems to be and boot him off. I thought there was kind of a policy against denialist trolls around here, one of the things that makes this place refreshing.

(Queue Dan's whining response claiming we don't want to hear 'all sides' and other predictable denialist tripe...)

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 04:48:41 PM »
per cnn...levees now breached south of Houston

The levee at Columbia Lakes in Brazoria County have been breached. Brazoria County is just south of Houston.

The county's official Twitter account sent this message: "GET OUT NOW!!"

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 03:32:54 PM »
sig, not overtopping the top of the dam, but yeah, they are in uncontroled spill now down the spill way...not good.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 29, 2017, 08:11:32 AM »
"...most of our efforts should be focused on controlling and reducing demand for oil, 'natural' gas and coal"

Again, I do agree with this. But I also blame FF companies more than I do consumers, just as I blame pushers more than the addicts they manage to get hooked on their product.

Any ideas how to push an agenda of reduced consumption? I've been trying to model it, but few of even my most enlightened friends and family seem to be following my lead.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 07:54:49 AM »

"If GEFS ensembles are to be believed, then we need to watch the Western Gulf for another tropical system next week. Not helpful."


And Addicks rising fast:

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 29, 2017, 06:12:08 AM »
Adam, do you happen to have any professional or other connections to the ff industry that you would care to share?

(I do agree with you about demand destruction, by the way.)

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 29, 2017, 06:10:23 AM »
Barker and Addicks seem to already be releasing water down their spillways. Let's hope these old, badly maintained dams hold up under this extreme situation. The heart of Houston sits below them.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 27, 2017, 01:03:17 PM »
Well put, geront and rbb.

For uptodate coverage of the unfolding horrors, the best spot is the comments section at Cat6:

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: August 26, 2017, 09:49:57 PM »
I haven't been following the whole thread, and I'm all for 'local' even if that just means 'on the same continent'...

But have you included wind assisted transport. It seems to me I heard that this is coming back and can cut fuel needs by a considerable percentage.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 25, 2017, 11:44:43 PM »
This is the thing: People hear about sea level rise, and even at the extremes, it is measured in millimeters or at most centimeters per year.

Doesn't sound like much. Seems like something you can gradually plan for and avoid, slowly moving away from lower areas as they are more and more often covered at high tides...

But what we see here is that these higher sea levels serve as raised platforms from which GW-juiced monster storms like this push storm surges beyond anything seen in an areas history. And these are met by equally unprecedented deluges from the sky that last for days.

This is how more and more coastal cities will be damaged and destroyed (tho the myopia of Trump's infrastructure plan, insane insurance plans, and states where you can't even say the word GW will doom many areas to the slower death by a thousand ever higher tides...)

And we all get front seats to watch it happen this time.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 25, 2017, 11:23:49 PM »
rs's latest on the subject:

Harvey’s Mammoth Deluge Potential: Some Models Are Showing Storm Could Produce Five Feet of Rain

Media, Texas, and Gulf Coast residents take note: the thing to be most concerned about with regards to Harvey is not its admittedly life-threatening storm surge and strong winds, but what is shaping up to be a potentially historic rainfall event.

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: August 24, 2017, 10:43:55 PM »
From 2014, but perhaps relevant to the discussion here?

at the current rate, global warming will rise to two degrees Celsius by 2036

Does anyone know if M. Mann has updated this projection?

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: August 24, 2017, 04:35:16 PM »
Hear! Hear!

JP should be declared a national treasure!

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 24, 2017, 04:09:46 PM »
There have already been many events that have been with high probability linked to gw that have had very negative effects on crops in particular years, the European heatwave of '03 and the Russian one of '10 just being the best known.

We are likely in the midst of another one in Europe:

A serious drought across Europe has wreaked havoc for Italy's agricultural industry, causing over $2 billion in damage.

"Dry spells no longer a rare event in southern Europe"

(Thanks to MBS at POForum for this)

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 17, 2017, 01:28:38 AM »

Canada wildfires 'apocalyptic'

A New Zealand helicopter pilot fighting enormous wildfires in Canada says everyone works in an ''apocalyptic twilight'' amid the worst conditions he has experienced in 25 years.

A couple amazing pictures and lots of good descriptions here.

See also:

Area Burned in Severe Northwest Territory Wildfires Doubles in Just One Day

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 16, 2017, 10:47:08 PM »
We have very smoky ground-level air here in Minneapolis, apparently from Saskatchewan fires, which are 10 times more widespread this year than normal...if there is a 'normal' any more...

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: August 15, 2017, 11:13:34 PM »
I know you're being snarky, but if you don't mind some friendly amendments...

1. Stop using fossil-death-fuel generated electricity. 1/3 of world electricity is produced by renewables, hydro and nukes. This would be difficult, but there's lots of waste that could relatively easily cut out, and if we really see that we are essentially at war, we should be willing to make some sacrifices to provide a marginally livable future.

2. There is certainly a whole lot of 'stuff' that we could stop making.

3. We can all or most of us mostly give up most meat most of the time, and cut back as well on dairy, especially cheeses that have a particularly large carbon footprint.

Such moves might give a tiny bit of breathing room as we continue to build out renewables to replace nukes and ultimately most hydro, while insuring there is enough food for humans and living area for other species.

Few scientists are willing to make such statements, though. Too many seem to be under the sway of what 'economists' think is reasonably doable. We need to start ignoring such ignorant voices of 'reason.'

There is no one, or even several, event(s) that will cause all people to give up their denialism. It was really never about evidence of any sort, so just more and stronger evidence by itself is never going to do it for all too many.

The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: August 13, 2017, 01:27:08 AM »
Thanks again.

I tend to agree.

The other thing about the ocean CO2 sink is that as the surface warms, CO2 will less easily dissolve in the water. And old, CO2-rich waters are already making their way back to the surface, iirc.

The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: August 12, 2017, 11:58:13 PM »
Thanks for the reminder, aslr

The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: August 12, 2017, 08:49:29 PM »
"The 100-year CO₂-eq value at the end of 2016 was about 521ppm which is already at Eocene levels."

Is this somewhere in one of the links you provided, or is there another source for it that you might kindly point me to.

Thanks ahead of time, for this and all the great work you do here.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: August 12, 2017, 02:48:25 AM »
wellll, some cities are newer than rail. But many/most current major US cities had extensive rail and trolley systems in the US up till the 40's and 50's when mostly corrupt politicians influenced by car, oil, concrete and other interests arranged to have them ripped out. This is well documented history. Try it some time.

And of course Europe hasn't "always'' had Metro, etc. When they did get new kinds of public transport though, it was often an occasion for celebration and compositions!  ;D :

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 11, 2017, 03:57:51 PM »
Well, at least we're not going to war with Russia...yet!  :) :o ::) :-[ :'(

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: August 09, 2017, 08:23:53 PM »
Again, and as usual, nicely put, Terry.

The real 'deep state,' as far as I can see, is not so much the legions of mostly faceless bureaucrats (i.e. people who are not particularly ideological, but just very experienced and skilled at doing thankless jobs). Rather it is the mega-corporations in the military procurement (bomb making) industries, along with Wall Street, fossil-death-fuels, and a few other industries.

The MIC will continue to insure that we are involved in hot or simmering wars for as long as they have the power to influence policy.

For further support for my above claim, please see #1 pie chart in figure 4 on page 13 of the linked FAO report that shows that 57.7% of all losses and damage to crops was from flooding, and another 25.4% from storms, which adds up to 83.1% damage and loss of crops from storms and flooding. This enormous figure compares to only 14.6% loss from drought.

Further on why I choose not to engage with trolls:

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: August 09, 2017, 07:56:21 PM »
Nicely done, Arch. You have more patience than I.

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: August 09, 2017, 05:43:18 PM »
Thanks for that, aslr. It's a hard concept for many/most to hear, in my experience.

And thanks for those excellent points, arch. Of course, warmer global temps mean wetter conditions on average in some areas, and drier in others, especially the interiors of continent (for example, Mongolia).

A couple other points to keep in mind: More crops are destroyed every year by flooding than by drought. So wetter does not necessarily mean 'better for crops'...not by a long shot.

Also, of course, we have now moved out of the 'goldilocks' global temperature zone (and definitely the atmospheric CO2 concentration range) that we have been in throughout the holocene. So comparisons to periods of relative wetness in that period are becoming less and less relevant. The areas that will see increased wetness going forward will see rain bombs and flooding unlike anything in the holocene record.

(I won't respond directly to DB, since he has shown himself to be a straightout denialist (with terms from the denialist playbook like 'climate alarmist,' and 'LIA' as if it were globally relevant), and I have not found discussions with that sort to be very...fruitful. And predictably he will now whine about 'climate alarmists' blocking out 'alternative facts' or some such nonsense. Let him whine.)

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: August 08, 2017, 07:08:10 PM »
And now:

 US federal department is censoring use of term 'climate change', emails reveal

 series of emails show staff at Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service advised to reference ‘weather extremes’ instead

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 08, 2017, 07:01:46 PM »
And then there's...

'Self-driving car' actually controlled by man dressed up as a car seat

Virginia residents and tech blogs alike fooled by university ‘research project’ featuring a driver pretending to be part of autonomous vehicle

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: August 03, 2017, 10:55:14 PM »
Thanks for that update, pil.

Can Trump fire a whole grand jury?? Surely they must have some kind of independence, right?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Gulf Stream stall
« on: August 01, 2017, 05:57:27 AM »

Loss of Arctic sea ice impacting Atlantic Ocean water circulation system

“Conventional thinking has been that if ocean circulation weakens, reducing the transport of heat from low to high latitudes, then it should lead to sea ice growth. But we have found another, overlooked, mechanism by which sea ice actively affects AMOC on multi-decadal time scales,” said professor Alexey Fedorov, climate scientist at the Yale Department of Geology and Geophysics and co-author of a study detailing the findings in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Earlier this year, a different Yale-led study cautioned that the AMOC system was not as stable as previously thought. That study said the possibility of a collapsed AMOC under global warming conditions is being significantly underestimated.

“We’ve now found this new connection between sea ice and AMOC,” Liu said. “Sea ice loss is clearly important among the mechanisms that could potentially contribute to AMOC collapse.”

The researchers based their findings on a combination of comprehensive climate model simulations and novel computations of the sensitivity of ocean circulation to fluctuations in temperature and salinity at the ocean’s surface over time.

“In our experiments we saw a potential loss of 30% to 50% of AMOC’s strength due to Arctic sea ice loss. That is a significant amount, and it would accelerate the collapse of AMOC if it were to occur,” Fedorov said.

In the short-term, changes in the subpolar North Atlantic have the greatest impact on AMOC, the researchers found; but over the course of multiple decades, it was changes in the Arctic that became most important to AMOC, they said.

thnx to mlparish at robertscribbler's blog for this

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