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Messages - Tor Bejnar

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 20, 2017, 08:48:24 PM »
Because this is the "Oil and Gas Issues" thread, I'm sure there are some Slimy Greens selling used Priuses, Bolts and Leafs and Oily Greens who don't use shampoo and, um, Gaseous Greens who like undercooked beans.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 20, 2017, 02:44:55 PM »
O-Buoy 14 is on the move. Map shows movement since its computer woke up with spring sunshine.  Screen shots from yesterday's PolarView image. (Click on 'enlargement' for greater enlargement.)

3
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 20, 2017, 12:22:18 AM »
fast ice
ice that is anchored to the shore or ocean bottom, typically over shallow ocean shelves at continental margins; fast ice is defined by the fact that it does not move with the winds or currents.


The new ice attached to (and growing off of) the Larsen C ice shelf is fast ice.  The new ice that is attached to the iceberg (ice island) is not fast ice, as long as the iceberg is drifting around.  If the iceberg stops moving for a bit, there will temporarily (at least) fast ice between the two.  I rather expect the iceberg to get stuck in the winter fast ice later this SH winter. (But I'm not an iceberg expert.)

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 09:07:03 PM »
"many"
It is my belief.

As long as I drive a Prius (even a 15 years old one), among other 'sins' [note: it uses petrol], I count myself as being among those Green BAUers.  I've had friends and associates who are quite Green (way back to the latest 60's) so I have images of what it takes.

5
Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Drilling and Shipping
« on: July 19, 2017, 08:53:12 PM »
         He wasn't scared when World War III was declared
         He wasn't scared
         No sir-ee
              Tom Lehrer

Now The U.S. Coast Guard Wants Cruise Missiles On Its Icebreakers Too
By Tyler Rogoway - May 22, 2017
As Russia is building literally a new armada of new icebreakers, ice-capable supply ships, a massive arctic "research" submarine and icebreaker surface combatants armed with cruise missiles, the Pentagon is now looking at arming its relatively tiny fleet of future icebreakers with similar weapons as well.

The revelation came during a House subcommittee on Homeland Security hearing where Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Paul Zukunft was discussing the service's plans to build three new medium icebreakers, with the first delivery occurring by 2023. A major design study is underway now and the nature of the icebreaker's capabilities still remain up for debate, but the ability to add heavy weapons is something USCG is now interested in
...

6
Arctic Background / Re: Arctic Drilling and Shipping
« on: July 19, 2017, 08:42:46 PM »
Sad news:
Interior considering 3 Beaufort Sea projects
Margaret Kriz Hobson, E&E News reporter
Published: Tuesday, July 11, 2017
The Trump administration is expected to roll out the red carpet for three oil development projects in the Arctic Ocean, all of which are located in a sliver of the Beaufort Sea that was excluded from former President Obama's Arctic drilling ban.

The Interior Department is set to announce tomorrow whether Eni US Operating Co. Inc. can explore for oil on its federal Nikaitchuq North leases off Alaska's northeastern shore.

The company, a subsidiary of Italian multinational Eni SpA, is proposing to drill horizontal wells under the seabed to reach its federal leases. Those wells would be drilled from Spy Island, where Eni operates an oil facility in state of Alaska waters. If approved by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, the company could begin drilling four wells this December.

Interior also is considering whether to give the Arctic Slope Regional Corp. more time to decide whether to drill on leases it received from Royal Dutch Shell PLC after Shell dropped out of U.S. Arctic oil development in 2015. Those leases are located in federal waters north of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and west of the Native village of Kaktovik.

Early this year ASRC Exploration LLC, a subsidiary of the Native-owned company, filed a request for a suspension of operations on those leases. Since then, the subsidiary, known as AEX, has also provided a detailed plan for developing those Arctic leases.




"If they give us a reasonable schedule for getting these leases developed, then we can grant them the time to do that," explained Mark Fesmire, director of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement's Alaska office. "We are considering that right now."

BSEE has already approved AEX's request to administratively combine the former Shell leases into a single tract now known as the Taktuk Unit. That decision applies to 20 of the 21 leases acquired from Shell. One of the leases was excluded because the company didn't provide enough information proving that it is geologically related to the other lands.

By unitizing the leases, the company will have greater flexibility to drill on any or all of the leases. "Drilling on one is the legal equivalent of doing lease holding activities on any of the other leases in the unit," Fesmire said. As a result, regulators can "treat that unit as one exploratory project."

The Trump administration is also considering a third oil exploration project, this one submitted by Hilcorp Alaska to develop its offshore Liberty leases. Those lands, located northeast of the oil industry town of Deadhorse, are jointly owned by BP.

BOEM is putting the finishing touches on a draft environmental impact statement for the Liberty project, which could be released later this month.

Under Hilcorp's 2014 development plan for Liberty, the company is proposing to build its drilling and processing facility on a man-made gravel island located 6 miles from shore.

Waters omitted from Obama ban

These three Beaufort Sea oil proposals are located in the 2.8-million-acre region that was omitted from Obama's Arctic withdrawal plan after Alaska state officials lobbied the White House to allow continued energy development in the oil-rich waters (Energywire, Jan. 17).

This roughly 200-mile-long region is located between the native communities of Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) and Kaktovik, between tracts of land that the two villages rely on for subsistence whaling.

Beaufort Sea oil has been flowing into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System since 1987 when production began at the Endicott field. The operation is located on an artificial island 3 miles off the shore and 15 miles east of Prudhoe Bay.

In October 2001, production began at a second offshore site, the Northstar field. That operation, located 12 miles northwest of Prudhoe Bay, was also built on a man-made island.

Hilcorp is currently the operator and majority owner of both facilities.

7
Healy in port (Seward, Alaska, 125 km south of Anchorage)

A lot more activity (that is: more clouds, school busses, and people on deck) than last year's similar image in August.

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 06:57:43 PM »
I suggest it includes many of the investors that caused (from my Bloomberg quoute above):
An index of 40 publicly-traded solar companies, wind-turbine component makers and others that benefit from reduced fossil fuel consumption is up 20 percent this year.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 06:43:57 PM »
Green BAU = pro environment but still mostly Business As Usual
non-green BAU is 'all about' getting all the oil an gas and coal we can as quickly as possible, and making our penny today with no concern for others' future.

Green BAU  is usually used in a derogatory way:  if everybody lived like [fill in the blank rich person], but used 'only' green electricity, we'd all still be doomed, goes the understanding.  There is a suggestion that 'true Green' approaches are transformational, so that society will be qualitatively different than it did before.

This sort of happened in the USA during WW2, with some food and gasoline rationed, many folks grew some of their own food and took the train.  The reverse transformation after that war, however, compensated for the wartime 'green' behavior 100 or 10,000 times over.

Will we transform or go down fighting with BAU?

10
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 19, 2017, 05:52:50 PM »
There appears to be some fast ice growing in the young rift between Larsen C and Iceberg A68 (and friends). PolarView screen print.
Project MIDAS offers this (screen shot of part of their post's graphic with scale moved and Iceberg label recreated):
... a new rift appears to be extending northwards (towards the top left) and may result in further ice shelf area loss. Although this new rift will probably soon turn towards the shelf edge, there may be a risk that it will continue on to Bawden Ice Rise, a crucial point of stabilisation for Larsen C Ice Shelf.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 04:31:21 PM »
There is a complex tapestry woven by the 'truths' published here and yon, many of which attempt to reflect 'Truth'.  Bruce shared important 'there's disturbing conclusions to be drawn from industry data'.  I shared 'there's some gloom [coal is 'up' some], but not totally gloom [renewables are doing well]' information. 

I expected the housing bubble fail 'any day' from about 2000 (and sold and bought 2 homes [the 2nd time in that order] between then and 2005).  When the bubble burst in 2007-8, I wasn't surprised, but if I had more directly invested in the failure (buying some sort of futures), I would have been loosing my shirt for 7 years!

So in the short term, I think Bloomberg will often be approximately 'right'.  In the long term, Bruce's source will likely be 'right'.  In the longer term, my grand nieces and nephew will have to cope (or not) and I'll be dead.

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Concrete - CO2 Villain or Solution?
« on: July 19, 2017, 03:23:37 AM »
By corollary, I think (I know a little about olivine, not concrete), a warmer climate will likely make it faster.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 03:08:20 AM »
Not his link; just his post.  Why do you ask?

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 18, 2017, 06:23:20 PM »
Bloomberg:  Clean Energy Is Trouncing Oil, Gas and Coal in Trump Era
President Donald Trump took office vowing to revive the coal industry’s fortunes. So far, the smart money has been on clean energy.

An index of 40 publicly-traded solar companies, wind-turbine component makers and others that benefit from reduced fossil fuel consumption is up 20 percent this year. That’s more than double the S&P 500’s 9.8 percent gain. And better than the 8.3 percent rise by an index of leading coal companies.
...

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: July 18, 2017, 04:06:56 PM »
GAC - Great Arctic Cyclone and other "xAC" terms don't appear to be found in this Glossary.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 18, 2017, 03:39:34 PM »
A fresh snowfall around O-Buoy 14 makes it look pretty right now.  PolarView image (east and west, dated 2017-07-17) doesn't show the big crack anymore (Where'd it go?). (composite image approx. same size as image posted on July 16 (above), only this pair is rotated, cropped, juxtaposed and rotated back [not quite perfectly])

17
from Bloomberg
It’s classic subprime: hasty loans, rapid defaults, and, at times, outright fraud.

Only this isn’t the U.S. housing market circa 2007. It’s the U.S. auto industry circa 2017.

A decade after the mortgage debacle, the financial industry has embraced another type of subprime debt: auto loans. And, like last time, the risks are spreading as they’re bundled into securities for investors worldwide.

Subprime car loans have been around for ages, and no one is suggesting they’ll unleash the next crisis. But since the Great Recession, business has exploded. In 2009, $2.5 billion of new subprime auto bonds were sold. In 2016, $26 billion were, topping average pre-crisis levels, according to Wells Fargo & Co.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 17, 2017, 06:13:35 PM »
It appears that everybody agrees that "Time" isn't very good at keeping secrets long-term   ;D

19
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 17, 2017, 05:46:42 PM »
The older ice in the Lincoln Sea near Greenland has not moved much in weeks (it seems), but it is now on the move, again.  This July 15-16 gif (DMI Sentinel images) shows the westward movement.  Some of this feeds Nares Strait.  (The >5km floes are still some distance from Nares.)

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 17, 2017, 04:52:11 PM »
Per O-Buoy website OBuoy 14 is just north of 74ºN and at about 103ºW.  PolarView image screenshots below (JPG full res. has lines; JPG lossy has variable enlargement) with approx. location circles.

Alas, the image has better resolution above the dark spot in the upper left corner of the enlargement. (Scale: 61 km between 102º and 104º lines of longitude at the 74ºN parallel.)

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 17, 2017, 12:17:19 AM »
One aspect of this part of the melting season I do not have a good grasp of is the 'practical' relation of sea ice area (SIA) and sea ice extent (SIE).  I know it is 'all about' grid size, but that's 'theory' to me.  In practical terms, can someone show a 'real live' grid with 15% SIA so I can see what it looks like?  For example, when we look at the North Pole to Greenland image, how many grids are along the 30W longitude line? (10s or 1000s?) Off the NE corner of Greenland, are there ice-free grids right now?  (If so, about how many?)

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 16, 2017, 11:03:43 PM »
July 15 PolarView: Stefansson Island upper left and 'large crack' lower right.  (O-buoy 14 location map)

23
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 16, 2017, 10:41:51 PM »
The July 16 Sentinel image from PolarView shows the south end of the rift.  This screen shot is at 50% enlargement ("ensmallment"?)

24
Several years ago when we were replacing my wife's car, plug-in electrics weren't , as far as I know, available, so we got another regular Prius.  I think the 'better' emissions vehicles are only sold in California and other similarly regulated states (as far as the USA is concerned).

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« on: July 15, 2017, 04:10:13 PM »
... The graph shows the 30th June volume, and total volume loss along with  pre and post 30th June loss figures.
Projecting (by eye) the June 30 volume curve and the post June 30 loss curve (or line), they seem to intersect about 2019. [Click on the bold type quote link at the top to see David's graph.][later edit after David's post below:  David corrected my 'eyeball' that didn't notice the years were 'every-other', therefore my approx. halving the projected ice-free date.]

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 14, 2017, 09:23:04 PM »
Wow, indeed.
Chukchi and ESS both lost roughly a quarter of the remaining ice (extent) in one 'day'.  You cannot keep that sort of rate (km2/day) up for too long. :o

27
I'm curious about the crack in Petermann Glacier that appears to have caused a crack in the abutting fast ice (red arrows) (July 13 Sentinel Playground).  I wonder if the crack (purple arrow) that is collinear with the dirty streak suggests an unseen crack in Petermann.  And of course, I regularly look for crack growth (or connection) within the red circled area.  Finally, interesting crack propogation in the purple circle area (with enlargement).

28
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 14, 2017, 03:35:28 PM »
A screen shot from the middle of the rift (July 12 PolarView) very nicely shows the relative movement of the iceberg and the ice shelf: a classic transverse fault.  All arrows are parallel and the three sets of collinear arrows have the same spacing between their butt ends.  (Is there some deformation in the iceberg or is my arrows' angle slightly off?)

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 14, 2017, 02:47:59 PM »
So are you one of those old fogies who declare everything was better in the olden days?  :o :P ::) ;D (sorry about that  :-\)

30
Although small, they do a good job at pushing previously calved icebergs away from the front.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 14, 2017, 02:38:06 PM »
Wow, a solid century and loss of position!  Some of us thought, a couple month ago, that 2017 would be dancing in 1st place at this time.  It looks like it would take three consecutive double centuries to bring 2017 into 2nd place, and three more after that to reach 1st place.  (And double IJIS centuries are hen's teeth rare.)

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 14, 2017, 12:30:21 AM »
I wonder what a 'fluid dynamics' knowledgeable person would say about those pretty swirls, and especially their opinion about any vertical mixing associated with them.

33
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 13, 2017, 09:54:30 PM »
Here is 'just the rift end' at 106%.  From the June 8 post's scale, the rift at its end is about 1/2 km wide. Now looking forward to all the 'little' icebergs that we were 'promised'!

34
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 13, 2017, 09:41:06 PM »
A June 6, 2017 PolarView image seems to show less detail, but looking at the ice shelf coast in the area where the rift is likely to go (or went), I think I see (yes: speculation) a lineation at the coast (middle arrow in 'whiter ice' June 6 image) that is not pared with a lineation on the June 4 image ([see June 8 post]).  (The other two pairs of arrows identify duplicated lineations.)  ...

The actual rift (July 12 PolarView) reached the edge approximately where my 'middle' arrow identified a new lineation.  Cool!  (Chance?) (images are approximately the same area)

35
Walking the walk / Re: Trash
« on: July 13, 2017, 08:14:14 PM »
I remember visiting in New Zealand in the '70s where we very nearly never saw any trash strewn about.  (The one time I remember, my mom went out of her way to pick it up, and we carried it out.)  Later when I lived there, with more fast food options, I certainly saw 'misplaced' rubbish, especially when I hitchhiked.  It was very interesting when they came out with canned apple-orange juice (or a contract with a Middle Eastern country fell through, and cans [half in Arabic] flooded the market) and roadside litter changed from being beer can/bottle dominated to being apple-orange juice can dominated.

I don't tell hardly anybody that I regularly pick up paper towels that miss the rubbish bin (and rarely use them [the paper towels] myself).

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 12, 2017, 03:59:16 AM »
The near right little pond on the July 11 image shows what I'm pretty sure is very thin new ice, and the pond level fell a little, leaving air pockets that make this new ice look white.

37
From the July 3 "AWS17" blog, and looking at the location map, the Healy is now headed Arctic-ward.
Welcome back faithful readers to another exciting summer of CGC HEALY operations. HEALY and her crew set sail on a rainy Seattle Tuesday bound for Hawaii en route to the Arctic (our Navigator must have gotten a bit turned around).

Various links found here.

38
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: July 11, 2017, 02:08:54 PM »
In order to survive the current social-political-environmental challenges in the knowledge of there being certain future challenges (CC, climate refugees, etc.), many are functionally sleepwalking.  Especially in places like Florida with "stand your ground" laws, these sleepwalking bears should definitely be given a wide berth.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 11, 2017, 02:00:38 PM »
At least one weather-forecast-watcher predicted the current melt slowdown (resulting in "5th lowest measured for the date.") and a following (relative) cliff.  Will this cause 5th place to be maintained or will there be some catch-up to the extent leaders (or was the forecasting inaccurate)?

40
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 08, 2017, 11:13:13 PM »
I cannot see tweets at work, so here are screenshots for others.  See also: Larsen C rift branches as it comes within 5 km of calving.  I'm curious about the cracks shown north of the "2" and "8" in "(2.8 miles)"  Will the collection of soon-to-calf icebergs include that area? (Or are they old and re-sealed/dormant?)  I'm guessing we will have to wait another 6 days for more information (my understanding of the Sentinel-1 satellite schedule over this location).

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 08, 2017, 09:37:19 PM »
... Folks, ...
Your rant pretty much speaks my mind.

I appreciate folks going 'out on a limb' (makes things interesting), but posts read 'best' when there is some sort of acknowledgement they're projecting and not thinking they are standing on a firm foundation with The Truth by their side (and not repeating themselves every day). [I hope I didn't write this yesterday!  :D  Note to Neven: there's A-Team's rant, my response, so the next person gets to condemn us with a superior air, then you delete all three: right?]

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Other earth observation forums
« on: July 08, 2017, 07:40:18 PM »
I picked 'at random' one of the map's topics and ran an internet search on "coral reefs climate change blog" and came up with The Globe Program Community Blogs.  The actual 'hit' was to a 2012 article on Thai Coral Reef and Climate Change that called it a "Scientists' Blog".

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 07, 2017, 09:35:24 PM »
Per discussion of Kara ice, it's gotten noticeably darker in the past couple days. Via worldview.
Reminds me of 'black ice' on a highway bridge (but I won't tell my story).

44
The one-day growth of the smaller melt pond (lower left corner) is impressive!

Interesting that the mélange on the right remains frozen.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 07, 2017, 05:24:08 PM »
IJIS:

8,506,774 km2(July 6, 2017)down 66,161 km2 and 3rd lowest measured for the date.
The graph looks like 4th lowest to me.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 06, 2017, 10:44:08 PM »
Thanks for the temperance talk.  I already knew 7 days was a 'too far in the future' forecast to take seriously (but thoughts of a NH Christmas in hot & muggy July was too tempting).  I thought the 2 days ahead forecast showing Arctic rain (but not at the NP) more likely to be a real forecast.  I take your guidance to mean I shouldn't bet my retirement on that forecast materializing either.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 06, 2017, 09:23:37 PM »
NP elves may need umbrellas next week.  I don't look at the ASIG forecast pages often, and I know I've seen 'green' rain in the Arctic before, but isn't this quite a lot of 'heavy' rain in the forecast? (The 8th has a bunch of 'green' too, but the 13th's includes Santa's workshop.)

48
No ice in sight, but the Healy was near Oahu, as of Tuesday. Various links found here.


49
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 06, 2017, 06:52:41 PM »
It seems like 2017 has remained "3rd" for quite a while, even as other years 'bounce around' between 1,2,4,5 and 6.  As someone wrote recently, 'statistically, it has been a 6-way tie for a while.' 

And 2017 'wants' to be average  8) :P ::)

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 06, 2017, 06:11:17 AM »
from here and elsewhere in these threads:
Arctic melt ponds form when meltwater clogs ice pores (I thought we already know this...)
Article about a new study that has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

The ice is colder than the water, so water seeping down freezes, most of the time.  The ice forms a self-healing basin.

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