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Messages - AbruptSLR

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The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: Today at 07:22:06 PM »
My general impression is that after circa 2045 we will see two significantly different tracks for post-collapse society: (1) one dominated by a cyborg approach and (2) one dominated by a species being type of approach.

When I have more time, I will write more.


Just a quick note to expand on my two points cited in the quote above:

(1) The road to the cyborg approach is fairly obvious, when AI can not only be used to manipulate elections but also: (a) the stock market as demonstrated by Robert Mercer's (Renaissance Technologies') Medallion Fund; (b) support cyber-warfare as demonstrated by all major and minor powers in the world; (c) governance as is currently being demonstrated by the alt-right's attack on mainstream media via fake news and alternate facts and (d) Groups like Anonymous can hack private entities like: Microsoft, Facebook, Google and OpenAI to develop coding better than that used by Cambridge Analytica; in order to advance their own agendas.

In this regards, see the linked articles with the first entitled: "What Does the Billionaire Family Backing Donald Trump Really Want?"

The second linked article is entitled: "Renaissance Partner Airs Battle With Mercer Over Trump

Extract: "A Renaissance Technologies partner went public with his strong objections to top executive Robert Mercer’s support for President Donald Trump, telling the Wall Street Journal of a heated confrontation between the two men that may lead to his firing.

David Magerman has worked at the quantitative hedge fund for 20 years and helped design the firm’s trading systems. A registered Democrat, Magerman, 48, told the paper that Mercer’s “views show contempt for the social safety net that he doesn’t need, but many Americans do.”"

(2) The road to the species being approach could use a combination of mindfulness and electronic monitoring equipment to link the human mind to the holographic universe.  This might be achieved via the phosphorus pathway discussed in the following linked article is entitled: “The strange link between the human mind and quantum physics”.  In a few decades, who knows how much progress will be made into this matter.

Extract: “The perennial puzzle of consciousness has even led some researchers to invoke quantum physics to explain it. That notion has always been met with skepticism, which is not surprising: it does not sound wise to explain one mystery with another. But such ideas are not obviously absurd, and neither are they arbitrary.

For one thing, the mind seemed, to the great discomfort of physicists, to force its way into early quantum theory. What's more, quantum computers are predicted to be capable of accomplishing things ordinary computers cannot, which reminds us of how our brains can achieve things that are still beyond artificial intelligence. "Quantum consciousness" is widely derided as mystical woo, but it just will not go away.

In a study published in 2015, physicist Matthew Fisher of the University of California at Santa Barbara argued that the brain might contain molecules capable of sustaining more robust quantum superpositions. Specifically, he thinks that the nuclei of phosphorus atoms may have this ability.

In 2016, Adrian Kent of the University of Cambridge in the UK, one of the most respected "quantum philosophers", speculated that consciousness might alter the behaviour of quantum systems in subtle but detectable ways.“

Fed up with dysfunctional non-solutions? Heck, why copy decades of experience of serious nations and why acknowledge serious health market economics (like Hillary desperately tried to suggest since last century...)... nope, we alcohol boneheads vote Trump!


Thanks for your responses.  In Reply #1650 I cite an article that discusses how Team Trump benefits from disorder/crisis, in order to create the need for a strongman.  During the Obama years the Tea Party in Congress worked to obstruct Obama's economic efforts in order to create the types of dysfunction that they are now benefiting from by working with Team Trump.  It is much easier to contribute to the problem and then blame the establishment for our mutual suffering than to work to implement measures like those taken in successful nations (like Sweden, Portugal, etc.).  We are now seeing the expansion of Vulture Capitalism via alt-right populism, as espoused by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his book "Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder".


The linked article is entitled: "Populist Masculinity and the Suspension of Order".  The article indicates that Trump's populist masculinity demands crisis/disorder so that it remains relevant.  Also, I note that Bannon has retained Nicholas Taleb to consult on how Team Trump can gain from disorder.

Extract: "Populist masculinity can be seen as a pyramid scheme with Trump at the top, surrounded by his uber-rich and uber-right cronies. Below this highest level of the pyramid reside the celebrity class of the alt-right such as Milo Yiannopoulos and Mike Cernovich. These mid-tier populists resell Trumpian populism to the people lower down the pyramid in the hope of building sufficient cultural and financial capital to elevate themselves further up the pyramid (they certainly have little genuine interest in those further down). At the base of the pyramid are the much-famed “white working class” and their various economic and racial permutations who suffer certain masculine anxieties. Some of those anxieties, such as the loss of identity in a globalized labor market, are forgivable; others, such as the loss of white male privilege, are not.

What this pyramid suggests is that there is no such singular thing as “populist masculinity,” rather a spectrum of populist masculinities with different hopes, dreams and anxieties. In order to do justice to these diverse experiences, let alone construct compelling alternatives that will draw people away from Trump, it is necessary to think more creatively around the subject of how masculinity functions right now. There are multiple dynamics at play behind populist masculinity. One of these is the suspension of order.

In short, populist masculinity casts masculinity in a state of exception. By framing masculinity as under attack by liberal values, populist masculinity invokes exceptional powers to assert regressive forms of masculinity that in non-exceptional circumstances might appear unreasonable. We hear much about the so-called “crisis of masculinity.” The crucial pivot here is that masculinity is not in crisis, rather masculinity demands crisis. When crisis ensues, unexpected proposals may suddenly appear on the table: the suppression of women and atypical men, martial law, or any number of other unsavory things justified by alternative facts that would not seem credible in normal circumstances.

All such strategies require an intellectual mentor, and populist masculinity may find one in Nassim Nicholas Taleb, whose book Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder argues for the need to thrive in what might otherwise be described as the state of exception. Taleb may not know it, but Antifragile enjoys a certain cult status within populist masculinity. A quick search on the forum of populist masculinist Roosh V shows many references to the man and the concept. Given Taleb is known for his bully-boy tactics and his tendency on Twitter to gauge a man’s worth by how much he can deadlift, perhaps Taleb will function not just as intellectual mentor, but intellectual attack dog."

The linked article is entitled: "Biomass subsidies ‘not fit for purpose’, says Chatham House".   It raises major doubts about the use of biomass to fight climate change.

Extract: "Subsidies should end for many types of biomass, a new Chatham House report argues, because they are failing to help cut greenhouse gas emissions."

The linked article is entitled: “Alt-right influence casts cloud over CPAC”.  Has politics turned into a "... moneymaking cult of celebrity"?

Extract: "The onetime signature event for conservatives has been riven by charges of celebrity- and profit-seeking .

As the conservative movement has grown, the ACU has struggled to hew to conservative doctrine while simultaneously appealing to young activists and turning a profit. In doing so, some say it has suffered the fate of many conservative organizations and media outlets, transforming politics from a serious ideological endeavor into a moneymaking cult of celebrity. “

The linked article is entitled: “Our Miserable 21st Century“, and it references a 2016 study report entitled: “Where Have All the Workers Gone?” by Alan B. Krueger.  This work raises the prospect that Trump's joy ride is being partially/significantly fueled by 7 million opioid addicted, prime-age, unemployed men with their drugs being paid for by Medicaid so they cannot afford to look for work.  Who posting here has a practical idea of how to address this problem?

Extract: “In the fall of 2016, Alan Krueger, former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, released a study that further refined the picture of the real existing opioid epidemic in America: According to his work, nearly half of all prime working-age male labor-force dropouts—an army now totaling roughly 7 million men—currently take pain medication on a daily basis.
We already knew from other sources (such as BLS “time use” surveys) that the overwhelming majority of the prime-age men in this un-working army generally don’t “do civil society” (charitable work, religious activities, volunteering), or for that matter much in the way of child care or help for others in the home either, despite the abundance of time on their hands. Their routine, instead, typically centers on watching—watching TV, DVDs, Internet, hand-held devices, etc.—and indeed watching for an average of 2,000 hours a year, as if it were a full-time job. But Krueger’s study adds a poignant and immensely sad detail to this portrait of daily life in 21st-century America: In our mind’s eye we can now picture many millions of un-working men in the prime of life, out of work and not looking for jobs, sitting in front of screens—stoned.

But how did so many millions of un-working men, whose incomes are limited, manage en masse to afford a constant supply of pain medication? Oxycontin is not cheap. As Dreamland carefully explains, one main mechanism today has been the welfare state: more specifically, Medicaid, Uncle Sam’s means-tested health-benefits program.

In 21st-century America, “dependence on government” has thus come to take on an entirely new meaning.

You may now wish to ask: What share of prime-working-age men these days are enrolled in Medicaid? According to the Census Bureau’s SIPP survey (Survey of Income and Program Participation), as of 2013, over one-fifth (21 percent) of all civilian men between 25 and 55 years of age were Medicaid beneficiaries. For prime-age people not in the labor force, the share was over half (53 percent). And for un-working Anglos (non-Hispanic white men not in the labor force) of prime working age, the share enrolled in Medicaid was 48 percent.

By the way: Of the entire un-working prime-age male Anglo population in 2013, nearly three-fifths (57 percent) were reportedly collecting disability benefits from one or more government disability program in 2013. Disability checks and means-tested benefits cannot support a lavish lifestyle. But they can offer a permanent alternative to paid employment, and for growing numbers of American men, they do.

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: Today at 02:44:13 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.8:

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: Today at 01:19:58 AM »
That's one of the most disturbing articles I've ever read.  I had noticed in the few days before the US election a big increase in anti-Hillary material online.  This article explains that.

The truth of the matter is that politics is largely about the manipulation of uncertainty to get what one side wants; which has been going on for a long time.  So as not to dive into ancient history, the linked 2014 article is entitled: "Karl Rove vs. Hillary Clinton: Whisper campaign explodes on Internet", and provides an example of how during the 3rd Industrial Revolution, the internet allowed Karl Rove to effectively manipulate the truth before his target could react.  While the Cambridge Analytica work accelerates this trend by adding 4th Industrial Revolution - AI to Karl Rove's more traditional 'whisper campaigns' (he originally compiled lists of conservative groups and identified the key influencers in the groups to which he fed fake information to just before a key vote, so that the fake information would spread rapidly by whispers within the group before the target could respond).   Rather than expressing 'moral outrage' it is better to use information science to attack the uncertainty associated by fake information in order to mount a rapid response.

Extract: "Judged strictly as strategy, and not, say, for its morality, Karl Rove’s blast at Hillary Clinton on Tuesday demonstrated how the game of political trickery manifests itself in the Internet age. Allegation reported, allegation denied, outrage from the victimized party, all bouncing across the Web, the initial accusation repeated each and every time -- a whisper campaign given full baying voice.

The Republican strategist's questioning of Clinton’s health was a joint assault on the minds of voters and the heart of the would-be White House contender, and it probably worked, at least minimally, by injecting into the conversation something no one had been talking about, and spreading a negative assertion without any proof."

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 22, 2017, 11:56:20 PM »
The Republicans are pro-Putin because the Democrats are anti-Putin. Blue team, red team. No questions asked.

By this line of logic Democrats are also responsible for the GOP's climate change denial.  It seems to me that Republicans should learn to stand-up and take responsibility for their own actions.

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: February 22, 2017, 11:24:14 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Russia military acknowledges new branch: info warfare troops".   As we accelerate into the 4th Industrial Revolution, it would be Pollyannaish to ignore the use of information science in either warfare, or politics (I am sure that the NSA is not making this mistake).

Extract: "Along with a steady flow of new missiles, planes and tanks, Russia's defense minister said Wednesday his nation also has built up its muscle by forming a new branch of the military — information warfare troops."

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 22, 2017, 11:10:11 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Killer, kleptocrat, genius, spy: the many myths of Vladimir Putin".  Of the many half truths about Putin the article confirms that Putin is undeniably a kleptocrat, but it also points out that nobody cares; and indeed the second linked article entitled: "Vladimir Putin’s popularity is soaring among Republicans", indicates that Republicans actually increasingly admire Putin (I suspect they actually admire his thieving ways).


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 22, 2017, 10:23:22 PM »
It's not baffling at all. Just look at the Democratic Party and how Obama betrayed all those people who had voted for him, and it's quite understandable really. It's baffling that people find it baffling. Rinse and repeat.

The linked (re-posted) article provides evidence that the best way to fight government corrupt is not to elect a populist leader:

Extract: "The 2016 report pays special attention to the global rise of populism in the West. It argues that populism is caused by social inequality, which is then exploited by politicians. Taking aim at U.S. President Donald Trump by name, Transparency International notes that, while populist leaders and movements are on the rise in part in response to corruption, they will likely only exacerbate widespread corruption as it continues to seep into democratic institutions.

The Trump Organization on Tuesday said it hoped to expand hotels nationwide, now that the eponymous hotelier is in office. Also, now that he is president, Trump’s Mar-a-Lago golf club in Florida reportedly doubled its membership fees to $200,000.

And so while Trump, who ran an entire campaign referring to his opponent as “crooked,” is right to suggest that there is a link between corrupt institutions and social inequality, the answer is precisely not to elect a populist leader."

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 22, 2017, 08:22:15 PM »
I post the linked Alternet article entitled: "Donald Trump’s Treasury Nominee Will Make Vicious Vulture Capitalism Great Again", to remind people that Trump is not looking out for the interest of the common American but actually for Vulture Capitalists/Kleptocrats:

Extract: "It’s still baffling that a billionaire fraudster who preyed on the financially insecure was able to present himself to the electorate as a champion of the working class, but that’s the curious political situation we find ourselves in with Donald Trump.

The going theory about what happened in the 2016 election was that it represented a backlash among the lumpenproletariat against the political and financial elites who game the system for their own benefit. By picking Mnuchin as the nation’s leading financial executive, Trump has elevated a little-known avatar of this corruption."

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 22, 2017, 08:14:14 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Why Populist American Leaders Love Russia".  It considers FDR as a populist president and it compares the FDR-Stalin relationship to the Trump-Putin relationship, and it see many parallels, including that US populist presidents are: (a) happy to throw Eastern Europe under the Russian bus/tank and (b) so focused on domestic issues that they may not take the necessary steps to head-off international conflicts.

Extract: "After the war, Harriman, writing in his journal, confessed, “I do not believe that I have convinced the president of the importance of a vigilant, firm policy in dealing with the political aspects in various European countries when the problems arise." He was disheartened to realize that Roosevelt “didn't care whether the countries bordering Russia became communized.

Recently, Trump hinted that he wouldn’t care if NATO fell apart. Roosevelt, the populist, intuitively understood that most Americans didn’t care about Europe’s future. We were too busy worrying about our domestic problems to think about the complicated puzzle of Europe, or to see the big picture ...”

Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: February 22, 2017, 05:20:59 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Aerosol study to look at great unknown in climate science".  It looks like we still have a lot to learn, and if we were smart we world adopt a precautionary principal approach to climate change.

Extract: "Australian scientists are studying air pollution and cloud formation in Antarctica in an effort to understand how non-carbon aerosolised particles impact on global temperatures.

It’s the first comprehensive study of the composition and concentration of aerosols in the Antarctic sea ice area, a region that influences cloud formation and weather patterns for much of the southern hemisphere."

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: February 22, 2017, 05:06:46 PM »
The linked open access reference indicates that tree morality (in both temperate & tropical forests) from climate change induced droughts, will act as a positive feedback mechanism that is not fully accounted for in current climate models:

Sarah Greenwood, Paloma Ruiz-Benito, Jordi Martínez-Vilalta, Francisco Lloret, Thomas Kitzberger, Craig D. Allen, Rod Fensham, Daniel C. Laughlin, Jens Kattge, Gerhard Bönisch, Nathan J. B. Kraft and Alistair S. Jump (21 FEB 2017), "Tree mortality across biomes is promoted by drought intensity, lower wood density and higher specific leaf area", Ecology Letters, DOI: 10.1111/ele.12748

Abstract: "Drought events are increasing globally, and reports of consequent forest mortality are widespread. However, due to a lack of a quantitative global synthesis, it is still not clear whether drought-induced mortality rates differ among global biomes and whether functional traits influence the risk of drought-induced mortality. To address these uncertainties, we performed a global meta-analysis of 58 studies of drought-induced forest mortality. Mortality rates were modelled as a function of drought, temperature, biomes, phylogenetic and functional groups and functional traits. We identified a consistent global-scale response, where mortality increased with drought severity [log mortality (trees trees−1 year−1) increased 0.46 (95% CI = 0.2–0.7) with one SPEI unit drought intensity]. We found no significant differences in the magnitude of the response depending on forest biomes or between angiosperms and gymnosperms or evergreen and deciduous tree species. Functional traits explained some of the variation in drought responses between species (i.e. increased from 30 to 37% when wood density and specific leaf area were included). Tree species with denser wood and lower specific leaf area showed lower mortality responses. Our results illustrate the value of functional traits for understanding patterns of drought-induced tree mortality and suggest that mortality could become increasingly widespread in the future."

See also the associated linked article:

Extract: "Scots researchers are predicting a significant acceleration in global warming as a result of a major threat to the world’s forests.

They have found that forests around the world, in both tropical and temperate regions, are at risk of death due to widespread drought."

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: February 22, 2017, 05:26:01 AM »

A bit of a tweek here.  Just in fun, but with a serious side. 

Since I know how partial you are to AI and its possible positive side.  Here, however, is a real world actual existing early version of another use for AI and it certainly is hard from certain perspectives to think of it as positive.  IN fact it may have been the deciding factor in electing Trump.

Tell me what you think of this.


Thanks for a more detailed article than I have seen before on Cambridge Analytica and how Temp Trump/Mercer used it; and I enjoyed the read.

My impression is that we should all buckle-in because while the 3rd Industrial Revolution was about Information Science, the 4th Industrial Revolution is about the acceleration of the rate of change due to Information Science (so we haven't seen anything yet).

My general impression is that after circa 2045 we will see two significantly different tracks for post-collapse society: (1) one dominated by a cyborg approach and (2) one dominated by a species being type of approach.

When I have more time, I will write more.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 22, 2017, 05:00:53 AM »
The linked article is entitled: “Deeper and darker: Trump’s unknown financial connections to Russia may hold the key to the widening scandal”.  We will see how deep this hole goes:

Extract: “Deeper and deeper: Congress wakes up as Trump's ties to Russia look more tangled and troubling than ever.

Over the weekend, a startling new report appeared in The New York Times:

A week before Michael T. Flynn resigned as national security adviser, a sealed proposal was hand-delivered to his office, outlining a way for President Trump to lift sanctions against Russia. Mr. Flynn is gone, having been caught lying about his own discussion of sanctions with the Russian ambassador. But the proposal, a peace plan for Ukraine and Russia, remains, along with those pushing it: Michael D. Cohen, the president’s personal lawyer, who delivered the document; Felix H. Sater, a business associate who helped Mr. Trump scout deals in Russia; and a Ukrainian lawmaker trying to rise in a political opposition movement shaped in part by Mr. Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort.”

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: February 22, 2017, 02:34:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.1:

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: February 22, 2017, 01:06:25 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Think States Alone Can't Handle Sea Level Rise?  Watch California".

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 22, 2017, 12:48:07 AM »
Monitoring Trump's numerous potential conflicts of interest has become a full-time job for many in the mainstream media.  See the linked article entitled: "NPR has created a team devoted to covering President Trump’s conflicts of interest"

Extract: "The New York Times created a series of circular graphics showing how Trump’s business efforts potentially intertwine with the federal government.

Buzzfeed logged more than 1,500 people and organizations connected to the Trump family and their advisers, which independent designer Kim Albrecht turned into a complex data visualization.

And ProPublica has been on the paper trail for weeks, reporting in early February on Ivanka Trump’s lack of documents divesting her of Trump business interests. That mirrored ProPublica's reporting on Inauguration Day concerning the President’s "then-absent paperwork."

NPR, meanwhile, created an entirely new initiative to cover possible conflicts of interest. They tapped veteran business editor Marilyn Geewax to lead the Conflicts Team, which has three full-time staffers and an intern.

Their reporting includes stories on potential foreign conflicts, possible ethics holes, federal ethics rules concerning product endorsement and various legal conflicts that intertwine with the president’s companies."

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: February 21, 2017, 11:41:58 PM »
Some misc. cartoons:

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 21, 2017, 07:19:44 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "The Richest Man in the World Could Be Putin", possibly this will incentive Trump to follow in Putin's kleptocratic footsteps.

Extract: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has amassed a massive fortune, potentially the largest in the world.

International Business Times pointed out on Wednesday that Putin's fortune could be as much as $200 billion."

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: February 21, 2017, 06:09:30 PM »
The linked reference indicates that deforestation in the Amazon rainforest has regional tipping points resulting in future hydroclimatic positive feedbacks that will accelerate future forest loss.  Such tipping points are not adequately represented in current consensus climate models:

Jaya Khanna, David Medvigy, Stephan Fueglistaler & Robert Walko (2017), "Regional dry-season climate changes due to three decades of Amazonian deforestation", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3226

Abstract: "More than 20% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades, triggering important hydroclimatic changes. Small-scale (a few kilometres) deforestation in the 1980s has caused thermally triggered atmospheric circulations that increase regional cloudiness and precipitation frequency. However, these circulations are predicted to diminish as deforestation increases. Here we use multi-decadal satellite records and numerical model simulations to show a regime shift in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing deforestation in Rondônia, Brazil. Compared with the 1980s, present-day deforested areas in downwind western Rondônia are found to be wetter than upwind eastern deforested areas during the local dry season. The resultant precipitation change in the two regions is approximately ±25% of the deforested area mean. Meso-resolution simulations robustly reproduce this transition when forced with increasing deforestation alone, showing that large-scale climate variability plays a negligible role. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness reduction is found to play an essential role in the present-day dry-season hydroclimate. Our study illustrates the strong scale sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation and suggests that deforestation is sufficiently advanced to have caused a shift from a thermally to a dynamically driven hydroclimatic regime."

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 21, 2017, 04:02:44 PM »
The link leads to the "Economics of Land Degradation", ELD, website; which addresses the importance of fighting land degradation w.r.t. food production (& the preservation of the remaining wild areas).

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:52:33 PM »
The linked article is entitled: ‘We did not start this fight’: In Trump era’s dawn, scientists rally in Boston".  We should all support scientists who fight for "the centrality of objective information to making policy".

Extract: "Hundreds of scientists and their supporters rallied in historic Copley Square on Sunday, demanding that the Trump administration accept empirical reality on issues such as climate change and highlighting the centrality of objective information to making policy.

“We did not politicize science,” said Naomi Oreskes, a Harvard science historian who spoke at the rally, which unfolded on a surprisingly warm February day that left the square filled with mud puddles from the melt of a recent blizzard. “We did not start this fight.”"

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:50:02 PM »
Continuing climate change should increase the intensity and frequency of atmospheric river events; and per the linked reference landfalling atmospheric river events are associate with about ½ of the top 2% extreme storm damage events.  Current assessments of damage from continuing climate change underestimate these impacts.

Duane Waliser & Bin Guan (2017), "Extreme winds and precipitation during landfall of atmospheric rivers", Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2894

Extract: "Atmospheric rivers—long, narrow filaments of large integrated water vapour transport—are associated with weather and water extremes, such as precipitation extremes and flooding in western North America and northern Europe. Here we apply a global detection algorithm for atmospheric rivers to reanalysis data during 1997–2014 to investigate the impact of atmospheric rivers on wind extremes as well as precipitation extremes. We find that atmospheric rivers are associated with up to half of the extreme events in the top 2% of the precipitation and wind distribution, across most mid-latitude regions globally. Landfalling atmospheric rivers are associated with about 40–75% of extreme wind and precipitation events over 40% of the world’s coastlines. Atmospheric rivers are associated with a doubling or more of the typical wind speed compared to all storm conditions, and a 50–100% increase in the wind and precipitation values for extreme events. We also find that the majority of extreme wind events catalogued between 1997 and 2013 over Europe with billion US dollar losses were associated with atmospheric rivers. We conclude that landfalling atmospheric rivers can represent a significant hazard around the globe, because of their association with not only extreme precipitation, but also extreme winds."

See also:

Science / Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:22:48 AM »
The link leads to eight TED talks on: “What is the Anthropocene?”.  It begins by pointing out that we are stealing nature from our children & ends with a discussion of existential risks:

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:19:54 AM »
Just to be clear, Russia has had a regularly updated psychological profile on Trump for many years and the linked news story is a red herring to make people think that Russia has not previously targeted Trump.

The linked article is entitled: “Russia Compiles Psychological Dossier on Trump for Putin”.

Extract: “Among its preliminary conclusions is that the new American leader is a risk-taker who can be naïve, according to a senior Kremlin adviser.

Trump "doesn't understand fully who is Mr. Putin — he is a tough guy," former Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Fedorov told NBC News.

So while many in Russia celebrated Trump's election, the mood in Moscow was changing from delight at Trump's election to doubt about his ability to deliver on a better relationship with Russia, he added.

"Donald Trump has done nothing good for Russia, nothing," Markov said. "But they already attack him.”

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: February 21, 2017, 02:29:33 AM »
The neutral is not what it used to be...

Granted, this is now a warm neutral instead of the cool neutral that it used to be.

Also, per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -1.0:

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: February 21, 2017, 02:24:07 AM »
So what is so hard about climate change modeling (an obnoxious physicist point of view)?

Edit, from:

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: February 21, 2017, 02:14:40 AM »
The linked reference examines another positive feedback mechanism (associated with lakes & ponds) that have not been adequately considered in current climate models:

Gabriel Yvon-Durocher, Chris J. Hulatt, Guy Woodward & Mark Trimmer (2017), "Long-term warming amplifies shifts in the carbon cycle of experimental ponds", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3229

Abstract: "Lakes and ponds cover only about 4% of the Earth’s non-glaciated surface, yet they represent disproportionately large sources of methane and carbon dioxide. Indeed, very small ponds (for example, <0.001 km2) may account for approximately 40% of all CH4 emissions from inland waters. Understanding how greenhouse gas emissions from aquatic ecosystems will respond to global warming is therefore vital for forecasting biosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, we present findings on the long-term effects of warming on the fluxes of GHGs and rates of ecosystem metabolism in experimental ponds. We show that shifts in CH4 and CO2 fluxes, and rates of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration, observed in the first year became amplified over seven years of warming. The capacity to absorb CO2 was nearly halved after seven years of warmer conditions. The phenology of greenhouse gas fluxes was also altered, with CO2 drawdown and CH4 emissions peaking one month earlier in the warmed treatments. These findings show that warming can fundamentally alter the carbon balance of small ponds over a number of years, reducing their capacity to sequester CO2 and increasing emissions of CH4; such positive feedbacks could ultimately accelerate climate change."

See also the associated article entitled: "Warming ponds could accelerate climate change".

Extract: "Rising temperatures could accelerate climate change by reducing the amount of carbon dioxide stored in ponds and increasing the methane they release, new research shows."

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 21, 2017, 01:56:19 AM »
At the following link, see the Global Philanthropy Forum video entitled: "A Competition Between Systems: Good Governance or Corruption".  Focusing on Africa, it discusses the "winner take all" mindset and 'unfairly' taking from 'others' (women, young, etc.) and how (what processes) to overcome such recurring problems, such as the 'Arab Spring', or the 'Occupy', movements (and multiple associated issues) in a modern, interconnected, rapidly-changing, world.  Key parameters need to be measured, and decision makers (both in business & government) need to be held accountable.

Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: February 21, 2017, 12:12:11 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Frontline: Fourth Industrial Revolution Takes Off, “Localizing” Site Selection Requirements".  The article indicates that the 4th Industrial Revolution will benefit US manufacturing more than any other country in the world, due to: (a) synergies of the adoption of new technologies (e.g. AI, robotics, IoT, smart manufacturing, smart products, etc); (b) proximity to the supply of workers at the high-end of the skill setsl and (c) proximity to consumer demand.

Extract: "The adoption of new technology — in what’s been called “the fourth industrial revolution” — will benefit the entire manufacturing ecosystem.

At the show, much of the “buzz” revolved around the software making possible what Brian Raymond, director of Innovation Policy for NAM calls “the convergence of the physical and digital worlds.”

With consumer demand for the “latest and greatest” continuing to drive that convergence, Raymond says the biggest challenge for the manufacturing industry will be helping eliminate the “mismatch” between the skills required by the new manufacturing and the supply of workers who have those skills.

As 2017 begins, Michelle Drew Rodriguez, manufacturing leader for Deloitte’s Center for Industry Insights, sees “limitless possibilities” for manufacturing: “Each of those trends is definitely poised for growth with the IoT, smart products, and smart factories. When you look at them combined, that’s really where the true value comes together.”

In Deloitte’s 2016 global manufacturing competitiveness survey of more than 500 executives, the U.S. came out on top as the country which is expected to be most competitive by the end of the decade. “The U.S. has been poised for a resurgence, within the past couple of years,” Rodriguez says. “We’re seeing that in the news, with both domestic and international companies investing more in the U.S., especially around manufacturing. Modern manufacturing is moving to increasingly advanced technologies and skill sets.”

With the Trump administration’s emphasis on creating jobs, some companies that had been looking at investments in Mexico are reconsidering the U.S., Matter says. He notes that the three largest third-party manufacturing firms “are all growing their operations in the U.S., and not only in the lower-cost U.S. markets. They’re expanding in places like Silicon Valley.” "

Spring 2016 / Re: Human Stupidity
« on: February 20, 2017, 10:56:44 PM »
The last time around, a united Europe and United Nations was the result of WWII. I hope the new globalism is not the result of something similar.  There no examples of peaceful transitions of such magnitude. And I don't think that the technocratic Elite puts themselves into the place of the common man in India or Africa when they envision the new future...

I imagine that Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, etc., believe that they trying to help the common man in India and Africa (etc.); however, whether they actually end-up doing so is an entirely different matter.


Especially see the video entitled: "Feeding the Next 7 Billion"

Spring 2016 / Re: Human Stupidity
« on: February 20, 2017, 08:57:15 PM »
Even worse,

We have arranged a society where the individual success is extolled, but having left the common human without the means ( educational,  social,  financial) to succeed. And then we display  other people's successes 24/7 through all the media leading to humiliation and anger.  The science can become an easy target for their anger because it is even more obscure...

Revenge of the nerds, or the 'globalists' strike back:

The first linked article is entitled: "Mark Zuckerberg: Progress ‘requires’ embrace of ‘global community’"

Extract: " Facebook founder Marck Zuckerberg left no doubt Thursday where he stands on the issue of globalism: progress “requires” it, he said.

Mr. Zuckerberg said in a statement called “Building Global Community” on his social-media platform that globalism is “the next step” for humanity, even if advocates face tough questions whether they can “make a global community that works for everyone.”

“Our greatest opportunities are now global — like spreading prosperity and freedom, promoting peace and understanding, lifting people out of poverty, and accelerating science,” Mr. Zuckerberg wrote. “Our greatest challenges also need global responses — like ending terrorism, fighting climate change, and preventing pandemics. Progress now requires humanity coming together not just as cities or nations, but also as a global community.”"

See also:

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 20, 2017, 08:45:56 PM »
I don't really enjoy listening to Slavoj Zizek for too long, but he has a good point in this interview about what liberals are doing wrong.

He does not address what to do about the impacts of the 4th Industrial Revolution:

The linked article is entitled: "Cuban: Trump can't stop rise of the robots and their effect on U.S. jobs"

Edit, also see the following linked article entitled: ""Frontline: Fourth Industrial Revolution Takes Off, “Localizing” Site Selection Requirements".

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: February 20, 2017, 08:30:51 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM with weekly Nino data through the week ending Feb 19 2017, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  All data indicates neutral ENSO conditions.

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: February 20, 2017, 08:28:36 PM »
Per the following weekly Nino data issued by NOAA through the week centered on Feb 15 2017, the ENSO remains neutral, with the Nino 3.4 at +0.2:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 25JAN2017     26.9 2.0     25.9 0.0     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 01FEB2017     26.8 1.5     26.4 0.4     26.4-0.3     27.9-0.3
 08FEB2017     27.2 1.5     26.9 0.7     26.8 0.1     27.9-0.2
 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0

The first two images were issued today by the BoM showing weekly data through the week ending Feb 19 2017, indicating that ENSO remains neutral for both the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively.

The last two images were issued today by NOAA for the Eq Pac showing evolutions for both the SSTA and the Upper Ocean Heat Anom, respectively; both indicating neutral ENSO conditions.

Spring 2016 / Re: Human Stupidity
« on: February 20, 2017, 07:24:14 PM »
I agree with Carl that we need to better educate the common man throughout the world:

"We’ve arranged a society on science and technology in which nobody understands anything about science and technology, and this combustible mixture of ignorance and power sooner or later is going to blow up in our faces. I mean, who is running the science and technology in a democracy if the people don’t know anything about it?" – Carl Sagan to Charlie Rose, May 27, 1996

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 20, 2017, 07:04:01 PM »
The linked article is entitled: “Samuel Ronan: Democrats ignored working class for years”.  The Justice Democrats think that Team Bernie is not progressive enough and are fielding their own candidate for the Feb 25th vote on the chair of the DNC.  They think that Bernie should pull his support from Ellison (a Muslim congressman) to Ronan (a 27-year old air force vet).  It will be interesting to watch whether the progressives can figure out a winning strategy without selling out to 'big money' (I note that Lenin used a young Stalin as a bank robber to help finance his plan).

Extract: “In January, the Justice Democrats movement was founded to challenge the Democratic Party from the left using grassroots funding and organising. The progressives are supporting 27-year-old air force veteran Samuel Ronan as their DNC candidate.
People have criticised Sanders for taking enthusiasm away from Clinton's candidacy. Is there any danger in you challenging Keith Ellison's candidacy?
Absolutely not. I am the better candidate. I am the more progressive figure. Just because I'm unknown doesn't change that. We could have our cake and eat it. I'm not doing this to poke the eye of the tiger.

It's the same divide and conquer candidacy, but progressives are doing it. If Ellison or Sanders were to endorse me, that would change the game … it would give voice to the American people, which is what we fundamentally lack.”

Edit: If money is the root of all evil it will also be interesting to see how robotics & the 4th Industrial Revolution impacts income distribution in the coming decades.

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: February 20, 2017, 02:29:00 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -1.9:

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 19, 2017, 11:21:22 PM »
The linked video is entitled: “The Bizarre Far-Right Billionaire Behind Trump's Presidency “, and it indicates that Trump is truly representing Casino Capitalism, not the common man.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 19, 2017, 04:52:16 PM »
The linked article is entitled: “'Poisoned' critic Vladimir Kara-Murza leaves Russia for treatment”.  Putin is not a good role model for Trump.

Extract: “An outspoken Kremlin critic who fell into a coma two years after a suspected poisoning has left Russia for treatment abroad.“

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 19, 2017, 04:30:30 PM »
In the way of more background on moral outrage, we should be aware that all humans are capable of atrocities, not just Corporate Democrats/Republicans, for example at the end of the European Colonial era:

The first linked article is entitled: “Dutch Imperial Past Returns to Haunt the Netherlands”

Extract: ““What stands out is that Holland’s colonial past, the period 1945-1949 in particular, is as much taboo today as it was earlier.” Houben was quite outspoken in pointing his finger at those responsible for implementing and maintain this regime of silence: “politicians, but also historians and journalists have failed.” Andrew Goss commented that while 1950s’ scholarship passed over the Dutch colonial experience in the East Indies in silence, recent years have brought a flood of publications on the colonial experience, including memoirs, photo-books, diaries and histories of colonialism. Goss concludes that “this nostalgic resurrection of empire is detrimental to the Dutch nation’s ability to accept responsibility for the serious war crimes committed during the 'police actions’ of 1947 and 1948.“

See also:

The third linked article is entitled: “5 of the worst atrocities carried out by the British Empire”.

Extract: “In 1943, up to four million Bengalis starved to death when Winston Churchill diverted food to British soldiers and countries such as Greece while a deadly famine swept through Bengal.

Talking about the Bengal famine in 1943, Churchill said: “I hate Indians. They are a beastly people with a beastly religion. The famine was their own fault for breeding like rabbits.””

All people need to start cleaning-up their own acts now, as there is no time to choose the greater of two evils now and then just fix it later.

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: February 19, 2017, 02:19:43 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -1.9:

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: February 18, 2017, 11:30:55 PM »
The linked article is entitled: “The map of the world by authoritarian regimes”.  The downgrade of the US democracy to a 'flawed' status, in January 2017, is directly related to Team Trump taking control of the executive branch with limited effective checks and balances.

Extract: “In January the US was downgraded to a ‘Flawed democracy’, by the Economist’s Intelligence Unit.

‘Flawed democracies’ were those which respected basic civil liberties, and held free and fair elections, but had significant weaknesses in other aspects.

These weaknesses included infringements on media freedom, low participation, or problems in governance.“

Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: February 18, 2017, 10:41:25 PM »
The program outlined above is very easy to conceive, on a sunny afternoon in Philly, sitting on a deck outside, drinking hi test microbrew, and cheeping back at the birds and miaowing at itinerant cats. How much of it i actually get done I cannot say.

Godspeed, John Glenn.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: February 18, 2017, 10:37:42 PM »
NASA just reported a January anomaly being third warmest such on record behind 2016 and 2007.The anomaly was +0,92oC above the 1951-1980 average. January 2016 had an anomaly of +1,13o while January 2007 was +0,96o warmer. The gap to January 2015 at fourth place is quite large, almost 0,1oC (was +0,82oC warmer).

In addition, NASA has made BIG changes to some months in 2016! For. ex, November was down from +0,95o to +0,89o. February also looks significantly lower and the annual anomaly is now down to +0,98oC.


If one uses a conversion factor of 0.256 to convert GISS values to pre-industrial, then per my calculations this gives a 12-month running GMSTA thru the end of January 2017 of +1.22C relative to pre-industrial.

Antarctica / Re: Surge of WAIS Ice Mass Loss
« on: February 18, 2017, 10:11:01 PM »
The attached images come from the following linked website regarding ice mass loss rates for Antarctica from August 16 2002 to July 16 2016.  The first three images respectively show ice mass loss from zones AIS22, AIS21 & AIS 20; which are the three zones in the WAIS with the darkest red shading in the fourth image (with AIS22 for the PIG basin)

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