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Messages - AbruptSLR

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1
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: Today at 02:04:32 AM »
Scaramucci is trying to emulating Trump's bad boy behavior:

Title: "Scaramucci calls Priebus 'schizophrenic' in expletive-filled rant"

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/scaramucci-calls-priebus-schizophrenic-in-expletive-filled-rant/ar-AAoWir9

2
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 27, 2017, 11:43:05 PM »
With regards to climate change: "If we do not hang together, we shall surely hang separately"

3
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: July 27, 2017, 11:33:40 PM »
The linked reference indicates that the important feedback mechanism of GHG emissions form wetland anaerobic peat decomposition is sensitive to the rate of warming; where faster rates of warming results in an increase in effective ECS this century:

Debjani Sihi, Patrick W. Inglett, Stefan Gerber and Kanika Sharma Inglett (26 July 2017), "Rate of warming affects temperature sensitivity of anaerobic peat decomposition and greenhouse gas production", Global Change Biology, DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13839 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13839/abstract?utm_content=buffer22bfd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Extract: "Temperature sensitivity of anaerobic carbon mineralization in wetlands remains poorly represented in most climate models and is especially unconstrained for warmer subtropical and tropical systems which account for a large proportion of global methane emissions. Several studies of experimental warming have documented thermal acclimation of soil respiration involving adjustments in microbial physiology or carbon use efficiency (CUE), with an initial decline in CUE with warming followed by a partial recovery in CUE at a later stage. The variable CUE implies that the rate of warming may impact microbial acclimation and the rate of carbon-dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) production. Here, we assessed the effects of warming rate on the decomposition of subtropical peats, by applying either a large single-step (10°C within a day) or a slow ramping (0.1°C day−1 for 100 days) temperature increase. The extent of thermal acclimation was tested by monitoring CO2 and CH4 production, CUE, and microbial biomass. Total gaseous C loss, CUE, and MBC were greater in the slow (ramp) warming treatment. However, greater values of CH4-C:CO2-C ratios lead to a greater global warming potential in the fast (step) warming treatment. The effect of gradual warming on decomposition was more pronounced in recalcitrant and nutrient-limited soils. Stable carbon isotopes of CH4 and CO2 further indicated the possibility of different carbon processing pathways under the contrasting warming rates. Different responses in fast versus slow warming treatment combined with different endpoints may indicate alternate pathways with long-term consequences. Incorporations of experimental results into organic matter decomposition models suggest that parameter uncertainties in CUE and CH4-C:CO2-C ratios have a larger impact on long-term soil organic carbon and global warming potential than uncertainty in model structure, and shows that particular rates of warming are central to understand the response of wetland soils to global climate change."

4
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: July 27, 2017, 06:17:53 PM »
The response of the ENSO cycle to continued global warming will be a key to effective ECS this century:

John T Bruun, J. Icarus Allen & Timothy J Smyth (26 July 2017), "Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances", Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, DOI: 10.1002/2017JC012892

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JC012892/abstract?utm_content=buffer47acd&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) non-linear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The upto 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by non-linear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial wave-guide in the Pacific. Long term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (> 10 years) and high (< 10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical and Pacific basin scales. We analyse observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational datasets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long and short term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12 to 14, 61 to 75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long and short term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short and long term ENSO oscillations over the next century.
Synopsis
The Pacific El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) non-linear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and our human activities. This work can help predict both long and short term future ENSO events and to assess the risk of future climate hysteresis changes: is the elastic band that regulates the ENSO climate breaking? We update the current theory of the ENSO process with a sophisticated analysis approach (Dominant Frequency State Analysis) to include long term oscillations (up to 200 years) as-well-as tropical and extra-tropical interaction dynamics. The analysis uses instrumental and paleo-proxy data records in combination with theoretical models of ENSO. This fundamental result that shows the ENSO phenomenon has a stable tropical Pacific attractor with El Niño and La Niña phases, tropical and extra-tropical coupling and an intermittency or longer term form of chaos. We call this attractor the Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation as the phenomenon is measurable in the southern oscillation. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short and long term ENSO oscillations over the next century."

5
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: July 27, 2017, 05:11:22 AM »

Andrew P. Schurer, Michael E. Mann, Ed Hawkins, Simon F. B. Tett & Gabriele C. Hegerl (2017), "Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals", Nature Climate Change; doi:10.1038/nclimate3345



To me this is the potential for further validation of the >4.5 ECS argument.  Earlier warming due to CO2 at much smaller rates of increases/production of CO2 indicates a much higher sensitivity with unknown or underappreciated negative feedbacks like Albedo.


Further to you point (which I agree with) here is an article on the Cristian Proistosescu and Peter J. Huybers (2017) paper:

Titled: “Scientists are starting to clear up one of the biggest controversies in climate science “

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/07/05/scientists-are-starting-to-clear-up-one-of-the-biggest-controversies-in-climate-science/?utm_term=.012567d68486


Extract: “The new study helps reconcile the models with the historical record. It suggests global warming occurs in different phases or “modes” throughout the planet, some of which happen more quickly than others. Certain slow-developing climate processes could amplify warming to a greater extent in the future, putting the models in the right after all. But these processes take time, even up to several hundred years, to really take effect — and because not enough time has passed since the Industrial Revolution for their signal to really develop, the historical record is what’s actually misleading at the moment.

This conclusion is supported by a growing body of research, which suggests that warming estimates made from the historical record alone are “potentially biased low, for reasons we are now just beginning to understand,” said Timothy Andrews, a climate scientist with the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather service, in an email to The Washington Post."

Cristian Proistosescu and Peter J. Huybers (5 July 2017), "Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity", Sci. Adv. 3, e1602821,
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1602821

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/suppl/2017/06/29/3.7.e1602821.DC1/1602821_SM.pdf

6
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 27, 2017, 04:54:26 AM »
I despise any number of Trump's decisions, particularly in regard to the environment. I wouldn't appreciate his company at dinner, or over a beer. I still prefer him to Hillary because I'm convinced she would have lead us into a hot war with Russia by now.


Apparently, the Pentagon trusts Trump so little that for 9 minutes today they thought that Trump was about to order a preemptive strike against North Korea:

"Pentagon Reportedly Feared Trump’s Transgender Ban Tweet Was Announcement of North Korea Strike"

http://www.mediaite.com/online/pentagon-reportedly-feared-trumps-transgender-ban-tweet-was-announcement-of-north-korea-strike/

Extract: "At the Pentagon, the first of the three tweets raised fears that the president was getting ready to announce strikes on North Korea or some other military action. Many said they were left in suspense for nine minutes, the time between the first and second tweet. Only after the second tweet did military officials receive the news the president was announcing a personnel change on Twitter."

7
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 27, 2017, 03:57:11 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +5.5:

8
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 27, 2017, 03:11:19 AM »
It will interesting to see if Mueller can tie Firtash to Manafort to Team Trump:

"DOJ: Ex-Manafort associate Firtash is top-tier comrade of Russian mobsters"

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/07/26/doj-ex-manafort-associate-firtash-is-top-tier-comrade-of-russia/23049838/

Extract: "The Department of Justice has identified a former business associate of ex-Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort as an "upper-echelon [associate] of Russian organized crime.""

9
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 26, 2017, 07:04:09 PM »
Being overly optimistic about climate change is mostly a very cruel state of mind:

Title: "Why Hope Is Dangerous When It Comes to Climate Change"

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/07/why_climate_change_discussions_need_apocalyptic_thinking.html

Extract: "Global warming discussions need apocalyptic thinking"

10
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: July 26, 2017, 02:35:54 PM »
The linked Scribbler article discusses research indicating that carbon emissions from permafrost degradation will be more active than previously considered in CMIP5/AR5:

Title: "More Fire and Anthrax for the Arctic: Study Finds 21 to 25 Percent of Northern Permafrost Will Thaw at Just 1.5 C of Warming"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/07/25/more-fire-and-anthrax-for-the-arctic-study-finds-21-to-25-percent-of-northern-permafrost-will-thaw-at-just-1-5-c-of-warming/

Extract: "A risk of serious carbon feedbacks that accelerate rates of warming this Century and over the longer term is not inconsiderable even with a 24 percent loss of Permafrost under the best case scenario identified by this study. However, the likelihood of a much more serious feedback under continued fossil fuel burning is far more apparent."

11
The linked reference confirms that the ENSO is directly associated with surface air temperatures across the interior of West Antarctica, and I note that the frequency of extreme El Nino events is projected to double when the global mean surface temp. anom. gets to 1.5C:

Kyle R. Clem, James A. Renwick, and James McGregor (2017), "Large-Scale Forcing of the Amundsen Sea Low and its Influence on Sea Ice and West Antarctic Temperature", Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0891.1

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0891.1?utm_content=buffer2e94d&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and atmospheric reanalyses, we examine the principal patterns of seasonal West Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) and their connection to sea ice and the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). During austral summer, the leading EOF (EOF1) explains 35% of West Antarctic SAT variability and consists of a widespread SAT anomaly over the continent linked to persistent sea ice concentration anomalies over the Ross and Amundsen Seas from the previous spring. Outside of summer, EOF1 (explaining ~40-50% of the variability) consists of an east-west dipole over the continent with SAT anomalies over the Antarctic Peninsula opposite those over western West Antarctica. The dipole is tied to variability in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and in-phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) / SAM combinations that influence the depth of the ASL over the central Amundsen Sea (near 105°W). The second EOF (EOF2) during autumn, winter, and spring (explaining ~15-20% of the variability) consists of a dipole shifted approximately 30 degrees west of EOF1 with a widespread SAT anomaly over the continent. During winter and spring, EOF2 is closely tied to variability in ENSO and a tropically-forced wavetrain that influences the ASL in the western Amundsen / eastern Ross Seas (near 135°W) with an opposite sign circulation anomaly over the Weddell Sea; the ENSO-related circulation brings anomalous thermal advection deep onto the continent. We conclude the ENSO-only circulation pattern is associated with SAT variability across interior West Antarctica, especially during winter and spring, while the SAM circulation pattern is associated with an SAT dipole over the continent."

12
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 26, 2017, 03:29:28 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to +5.4:

20170625,20170724,5.4

13
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 25, 2017, 10:55:44 PM »
Donald Trump is a very poor (sad) father to drag his son Barron into Russiagate:

Title: "Trump Offer 11-Year-Old Son Barron to Senate Investigators During Tweet Storm"

http://www.thewrap.com/trump-offers-11-year-old-son-barron-to-senate-investigators-during-tweet-storm/

14
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 25, 2017, 08:19:20 PM »
Apparently, Ken Starr thought that he could indict a sitting president.  Hopefully, Mueller will come to the same conclusion if/when he has sufficient evidence on Trump:

Title: "A newly-unearthed, Clinton-era memo suggests a sitting president could be indicted — here's what it could mean for Trump"

http://www.businessinsider.com/can-mueller-indict-trump-ken-starr-memo-2017-7

15
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: July 25, 2017, 02:08:41 PM »
One big problem is that climate change is complex, so scientists like Mann can appear reasonable by pointing out that our carbon budget for achieving the Paris goals are as much as 40% lower than assumed in 2015; when in reality such estimates also ignore the very real risk that ECS is significantly higher than assumed in 2015 (not to mention Hansen's ice-climate feedback).

Andrew P. Schurer, Michael E. Mann, Ed Hawkins, Simon F. B. Tett & Gabriele C. Hegerl (2017), "Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals", Nature Climate Change; doi:10.1038/nclimate3345

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3345.html?foxtrotcallback=true

Abstract: "During the Paris conference in 2015, nations of the world strengthened the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to holding ‘the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C’ (ref. 1). However, ‘pre-industrial’ was not defined. Here we investigate the implications of different choices of the pre-industrial baseline on the likelihood of exceeding these two temperature thresholds. We find that for the strongest mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and a medium scenario RCP4.5, the probability of exceeding the thresholds and timing of exceedance is highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline; for example, the probability of crossing 1.5 °C by the end of the century under RCP2.6 varies from 61% to 88% depending on how the baseline is defined. In contrast, in the scenario with no mitigation, RCP8.5, both thresholds will almost certainly be exceeded by the middle of the century with the definition of the pre-industrial baseline of less importance. Allowable carbon emissions for threshold stabilization are similarly highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline. For stabilization at 2 °C, allowable emissions decrease by as much as 40% when earlier than nineteenth-century climates are considered as a baseline."

16
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 25, 2017, 02:07:53 PM »
One big problem is that climate change is complex, so scientists like Mann can appear reasonable by pointing out that our carbon budget for achieving the Paris goals are as much as 40% lower than assumed in 2015; when in reality such estimates also ignore the very real risk that ECS is significantly higher than assumed in 2015 (not to mention Hansen's ice-climate feedback).

Andrew P. Schurer, Michael E. Mann, Ed Hawkins, Simon F. B. Tett & Gabriele C. Hegerl (2017), "Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals", Nature Climate Change; doi:10.1038/nclimate3345

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3345.html?foxtrotcallback=true

Abstract: "During the Paris conference in 2015, nations of the world strengthened the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to holding ‘the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C’ (ref. 1). However, ‘pre-industrial’ was not defined. Here we investigate the implications of different choices of the pre-industrial baseline on the likelihood of exceeding these two temperature thresholds. We find that for the strongest mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and a medium scenario RCP4.5, the probability of exceeding the thresholds and timing of exceedance is highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline; for example, the probability of crossing 1.5 °C by the end of the century under RCP2.6 varies from 61% to 88% depending on how the baseline is defined. In contrast, in the scenario with no mitigation, RCP8.5, both thresholds will almost certainly be exceeded by the middle of the century with the definition of the pre-industrial baseline of less importance. Allowable carbon emissions for threshold stabilization are similarly highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline. For stabilization at 2 °C, allowable emissions decrease by as much as 40% when earlier than nineteenth-century climates are considered as a baseline."

17
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: July 25, 2017, 01:47:45 PM »
Maybe poetry should be used to convey 'The Answer' (to Systemic Isolation):

http://chavelaque.blogspot.com/2011/05/answer-by-robinson-jeffers.html

With regards to climate change this entails feeling connected to future generations.

18
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 25, 2017, 04:19:24 AM »
That person could then fire Mueller and potentially kill the RussiaGate investigation.

Serious stuff.....keep your eyes wide open.

Hopefully, if Trump fires Mueller, Congress will reappointment him as their investigator.  But even then all of Team Trump can keep lying knowing that Trump will pardon them.

19
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 25, 2017, 04:11:41 AM »
Per the following data and attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -6.1:

+6.1

Thanks, fixed.

20
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: July 25, 2017, 03:30:05 AM »
If I understand correctly, more frequent extreme El Nino events, with no increase in extreme La Nina, will act as a positive feedback. More periods of warm surface waters in the Pacific that exchange heat with the atmosphere, and El Nino related jumps in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Only benefit would seem to be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Concur, but more extreme El Ninos can also accelerate the degradation of the WAIS

21
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 25, 2017, 03:27:53 AM »
Per the attached plot both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +6.1:

22
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: July 24, 2017, 06:54:15 PM »
The linked reference indicates that increasing tropospheric ozone decreases our carbon budget:

Bin Wang, Herman H Shugart and Manuel T Lerdau (21 July 2017), "Sensitivity of global greenhouse gas budgets to tropospheric ozone pollution mediated by the biosphere:, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12, Number 8

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7885/meta?utm_content=bufferbfe30&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "Tropospheric ozone (O3), a harmful secondary air pollutant, can affect the climate via direct radiative forcing and by modifying the radiative forcing of aerosols through its role as an atmospheric oxidant. Moreover, O3 exerts a strong oxidative pressure on the biosphere and indirectly influences the climate by altering the materials and energy exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. However, the magnitude by which O3 affects the global budgets of greenhouse gases (GHGs: CO2, CH4, and N2O) through altering the land–atmosphere exchange is largely unknown. Here we assess the sensitivity of these budgets to tropospheric O3 pollution based on a meta-analysis of experimental studies on the effects of elevated O3 on GHG exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. We show that across ecosystems, elevated O3 suppresses N2O emissions and both CH4 emissions and uptake, and has little impact on stimulation of soil CO2 emissions except at relatively high concentrations. Therefore, the soil system would be transformed from a sink into a source of GHGs with O3 levels increasing. The global atmospheric budget of GHGs is sensitive to O3 pollution largely because of the carbon dioxide accumulation resulting from suppressed vegetation carbon uptake; the negative contributions from suppressed CH4 and N2O emissions can offset only ~10% of CO2 emissions from the soil–vegetation system. Based on empirical data, this work, though with uncertainties, provides the first assessment of sensitivity of global budgets of GHGs to O3 pollution, representing a necessary step towards fully understanding and evaluating O3–climate feedbacks mediated by the biosphere."

Extract: "By fully accounting for the three gases simultaneously, we find that with the O3 level continuously increasing the whole soil system would be transformed from a sink into a source of GHGs. With an increase of O3 concentration by 10 ppb, the global annual net atmospheric budgets would on average increase by ~12% (i.e. ~5 PgC yr−1)."

 

23
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 24, 2017, 06:41:50 PM »
Sounds like Donnie is tring to push Sessions out the door.  Will Sessions make him fire him......or will Sessions be the good loyal soldier and quit?


It is Palmer's opinion that Sessions will hang on to his AG job for as long as he can:

http://www.palmerreport.com/opinion/the-real-reason-jeff-sessions-is-refusing-to-resign/4023/


24
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: July 24, 2017, 06:31:40 PM »
Here is something on the Trump effect:

25
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:43:26 PM »
The linked reference indicates that extreme El Nino events could double in frequency if/when we reach a 1.5C increase in global mean surface temperature anom. relative to pre-industrial:

Guojian Wang, et. al. (2017), " Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3351

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3351.html?foxtrotcallback=true

Abstract: "The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events—which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies—is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s Phase 5 (CMIP5) under a most likely emission scenario, we demonstrate that extreme El Niño frequency increases linearly with the GMT towards a doubling at 1.5 °C warming. This increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events continues for up to a century after GMT has stabilized, underpinned by an oceanic thermocline deepening that sustains faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the off-equatorial region. Ultimately, this implies a higher risk of extreme El Niño to future generations after GMT rise has halted. On the other hand, whereas previous research suggests extreme La Niña events may double in frequency under the 4.5 °C warming scenario, the results presented here indicate little to no change under 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming."

See also: "‘Extreme’ El Niños to double in frequency under 1.5C of warming, study says"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/extreme-el-ninos-double-frequency-under-one-point-five-celsius-warming-study

Extract: "Now a new study, published in Nature Climate Change, suggests that similar “extreme” El Niño events could become more frequent as global temperatures rise.

If global warming reaches 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – the aspirational limit of the Paris Agreement – extreme El Niño events could happen twice as often, the researchers find.

That means seeing an extreme El Niño on average every 10 years, rather every 20 years."

26
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:42:20 PM »
The linked reference indicates that extreme El Nino events could double in frequency if/when we reach a 1.5C increase in global mean surface temperature anom. relative to pre-industrial:

Guojian Wang, et. al. (2017), " Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3351

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3351.html?foxtrotcallback=true

Abstract: "The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events—which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies—is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s Phase 5 (CMIP5) under a most likely emission scenario, we demonstrate that extreme El Niño frequency increases linearly with the GMT towards a doubling at 1.5 °C warming. This increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events continues for up to a century after GMT has stabilized, underpinned by an oceanic thermocline deepening that sustains faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the off-equatorial region. Ultimately, this implies a higher risk of extreme El Niño to future generations after GMT rise has halted. On the other hand, whereas previous research suggests extreme La Niña events may double in frequency under the 4.5 °C warming scenario, the results presented here indicate little to no change under 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming."

See also: "‘Extreme’ El Niños to double in frequency under 1.5C of warming, study says"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/extreme-el-ninos-double-frequency-under-one-point-five-celsius-warming-study

Extract: "Now a new study, published in Nature Climate Change, suggests that similar “extreme” El Niño events could become more frequent as global temperatures rise.

If global warming reaches 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – the aspirational limit of the Paris Agreement – extreme El Niño events could happen twice as often, the researchers find.

That means seeing an extreme El Niño on average every 10 years, rather every 20 years."

27
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:23:29 PM »
The four attached weekly Nino plots thru the week ending July 23 2017, were all issued today by the BoM, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, they indicate that ENSO conditions are continuing their slow decline into neutral conditions.

28
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:20:28 PM »
Per the following weekly NOAA Nino indices data & the accompanying plots issued today by both NOAA (Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA, respectively) & the BoM (Nino 3.4 & IOD, respectively), ENSO conditions continue their slow decline into neutral conditions:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4

29
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 24, 2017, 03:30:06 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +6.1:

20170623,20170722,6.1

30
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 23, 2017, 05:19:59 PM »
Trump may be pre-conditioning the military to follow unlawful orders, so that when in the future he can issue orders that progressively infringe more and more on democracy to the benefit of Trump's kleptocracy:

Title: "Donald Trump begins issuing unlawful orders, as ex-CIA chief urges personnel to defy Trump’s unlawful orders "

http://www.palmerreport.com/politics/trump-unlawful-ordersa-cia-defy-orders/4005/

Extract: "Donald Trump has begun issuing unlawful orders to U.S. military personnel, creating a situation in which those personnel will need to decide whether to obey or defy an illegal order from their Commander in Chief. This comes on the same day that the recently retired Director of CIA has begun openly urging members of the executive branch to defy any illegal orders that Trump might give."

31
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 23, 2017, 05:06:28 PM »
The linked "… and Then There's Physics" article acknowledges that people need to consider the higher climate impact scenarios more seriously:

Title: "Off for a couple of weeks"

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/07/15/off-for-a-couple-of-weeks/

Extract: "I’ve also been slightly discouraged by the whole saga surrounding David Wallace-Wells article (I’ve linked to the annotated version, so you can check his sources and how he has responded to the criticism). I think there were aspects deserving of criticism, but I also think he was trying to do something interesting; highlight the possible severe outcomes if we do end up continuing to emit CO2 into the atmosphere. I might disagree with how he framed the issue, but I still think it is an aspect that we do need to consider. It’s also led to a lot of discussion, which is itself good. Some of the criticism could – in my view – have been a bit more charitable.

To be fair, some of the criticism of those who approach this from an alternative perspective might also be lacking in charity (and this may include some of my criticism too, to be honest) and I’m starting to be a little concerned that there is a fairly narrow region of parameter space that is regarded as acceptable."

32
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 23, 2017, 04:47:24 PM »
The linked article illustrates my point, from my previous post, that decision makers like Rick Perry are planning to enable a major boost in US oil & gas production via fracking; while the cover-up the climate impacts from such production via imaginary future implementation of negative emissions technology:

Title: "Is energy 'dominance' the right goal for US policy?"

https://www.skepticalscience.com/energy-dominance-right-us-policy.html

33
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 23, 2017, 04:28:46 PM »
We will need extensive CH4 capture, as well as CO2 capture, technologies.


It seems to me that the linked reference (and associated article) about biospheric feedback effect in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth system is a play to try to document the potential validity of negative emissions technology like BECCS using ACME (Phase 1).  While ACME tries to account for the impact of phosphorous on the biosphere, I am concerned that much of their focus on BECCS is just happy talk, which will not prevent a socio-economic collapse in the 2050 to 2060 timeframe.  Nevertheless, it appears that these BECCS assumptions & associated projections will be rolled into both CMIP6 and AR6 to further the illusion that the situation is in capable hands (i.e. the DOE [which runs ACME] controlled by Rick Perry).

My point is that no matter how serious our situation is, decision makers like Rick Perry can always use happy talk about all the future CO2 and/or CH4 negative emissions technology that we are going to deploy in a few decades, just so that they don't have to do anything significant to lower emissions right now:

Peter E. Thornton et al, Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems, Nature Climate Change (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3310

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n7/full/nclimate3310.html?foxtrotcallback=true

Abstract: "Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy–economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low–mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system—demonstrated here—are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy–economic models to ESMs used to date."

See also the associated linked article entitled:  Titan simulations show importance of close two-way coupling between human and Earth systems"

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-titan-simulations-importance-two-way-coupling.html

Extract: "Through the Advanced Scientific Computing Research Leadership Computing Challenge program, Thornton's team was awarded 85 million compute hours to improve the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) effort, a project sponsored by the Earth System Modeling program within DOE's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Currently, ACME collaborators are focused on developing an advanced climate model capable of simulating 80 years of historic and future climate variability and change in 3 weeks or less of computing effort.

Now in its third year, the project has achieved several milestones—notably the development of ACME version 1 and the successful inclusion of human factors in one of its component models, the iESM.

"What's unique about ACME is that it's pushing the system to a higher resolution than has been attempted before," Thornton said. "It's also pushing toward a more comprehensive simulation capability by including human dimensions and other advances, yielding the most detailed Earth system models to date.

The development of iESM started before the ACME initiative when a multilaboratory team aimed to add new human dimensions—such as how people affect the planet to produce and consume energy—to Earth system models. The model—now a part of the ACME human dimensions component—is being merged with ACME in preparation for ACME version 2.

ACME version 1 will be publicly released in late-2017 for analysis and use by other researchers. Results from the model will also contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, which provides foundational material for climate change assessment reports."

34
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: July 23, 2017, 04:20:22 PM »
The linked reference projects substantial dynamical ocean response to projected changes in the global water cycle from RCP 8.5.  Just image how much response would occur due to freshwater hosing from Hansen's ice-climate feedback mechanism:

Xin Liu, Armin Köhl & Detlef Stammer (22 July 2017), "Dynamical ocean response to projected changes of the global water cycle", Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, DOI: 10.1002/2017JC013061

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017JC013061/abstract?utm_content=buffere7420&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "Over the next century substantial changes will occur in the ocean as a consequence of an accelerated global hydrological cycle and the associated net surface freshwater flux change is projected to result from global warming. This paper is concerned with the dynamical response to the associated surface volume flux anomalies. Based on ocean model runs driven by RCP8.5 surface freshwater flux anomalies over the period 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005, we show that the adjustment of the circulation involves a barotropic circulation response as predicted from the Goldsbrough-Stommel theory. The corresponding barotropic circulation intensifies by approximately 20% with a stronger intensification of about 50% in the Southern Ocean, comparing to the present-day Goldsbrough-Stommel Circulation. The barotropic circulation anomaly induced by intensified freshwater flux reaches to 0.6 Sv in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. The adjustment also involves changes in the meridional overturning circulation mirroring the basin-wide averages of changes in the convergence and divergence of the mass transport driven by the surface volume flux. The subsequent pathways of fresh water match with the spreading of volume flux in the shallow cells but diverge substantially with depth. Associated with changes of the flow field are the changes in meridional heat and freshwater transports. Changes in the circulation also lead to a redistribution of temperature and salinity from which a significant contribution result in form of regional steric sea level changes. These changes are of the order of 0.5 cm and can be largely attributed to the displacement of the isopycnals."

35
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 23, 2017, 04:11:03 AM »
If you have trouble keeping track of the many exposed (so far) interactions between Team Trump and Russia, the linked article might help out:

“The many unearthed interactions between Trump-world and Russia, documented”

http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/22/politics/the-many-unearthed-interactions-between-trump-world-and-russia-documented/index.html


36
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 23, 2017, 03:36:32 AM »
The linked article helps to explain why Mueller has his work cut out for himself:

Title: “5 Reasons Why Extraordinary Presidential Powers Make It Very Difficult to Nail Trump, His Family or His Team”

http://www.alternet.org/election-03918/5-reasons-why-extraordinary-presidential-powers-make-it-very-difficult-nail-trump-his

Extract: “Pardon power and absolute lack of morals make for a toxic, lawless cocktail. ”

37
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 23, 2017, 03:26:29 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +4.7:

20170622,20170721,4.7

38
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 22, 2017, 11:15:09 PM »
Trump asserts that he “Has complete power to pardon”.

Title: “Trump Affirms He “Has Complete Power to Pardon” in Another Unhinged Twitter Rant”

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/07/22/trump_affirms_he_has_complete_power_to_pardon_in_yet_another_unhinged_twitter.html

39
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 22, 2017, 03:27:36 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.3:

40
Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: July 22, 2017, 12:41:00 AM »
As a follow-on to my last post, per the first linked article Microsoft's topological quantum computer uses Majorana quasiparticles, which are also described in the following linked reference and associated article:

Title: "THE QUEST FOR A QUANTUM FUTURE"

https://news.microsoft.com/stories/stationq/

Extract: "Station Q researchers will continue to try to do very difficult things, he said, including continuing to pinpoint the existence and characteristics of Majorana particles; trying to detect particles called anyons and explore how those particles might make calculations; finding a way to “braid” strings of anyons through time and space to create stable qubits and therefore quantum properties; and exploring ways to apply topological effects to make qubits more robust."

&

Qing Lin He, et. al. (2017), "Chiral Majorana fermion modes in a quantum anomalous Hall insulator–superconductor structure", Science, Vol. 357, Issue 6348, pp. 294-299, DOI: 10.1126/science.aag2792

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/357/6348/294

"A propagating Majorana mode
Although Majorana fermions remain elusive as elementary particles, their solid-state analogs have been observed in hybrid semiconductor-superconductor nanowires. In a nanowire setting, the Majorana states are localized at the ends of the wire. He et al. built a two-dimensional heterostructure in which a one-dimensional Majorana mode is predicted to run along the sample edge (see the Perspective by Pribiag). The heterostructure consisted of a quantum anomalous Hall insulator (QAHI) bar contacted by a superconductor. The authors used an external magnetic field as a “knob” to tune into a regime where a Majorana mode was propagating along the edge of the QAHI bar covered by the superconductor. A signature of this propagation—half-quantized conductance—was then observed in transport experiments.
Science, this issue p. 294; see also p. 252

Abstract
Majorana fermion is a hypothetical particle that is its own antiparticle. We report transport measurements that suggest the existence of one-dimensional chiral Majorana fermion modes in the hybrid system of a quantum anomalous Hall insulator thin film coupled with a superconductor. As the external magnetic field is swept, half-integer quantized conductance plateaus are observed at the locations of magnetization reversals, giving a distinct signature of the Majorana fermion modes. This transport signature is reproducible over many magnetic field sweeps and appears at different temperatures. This finding may open up an avenue to control Majorana fermions for implementing robust topological quantum computing."

&

Title: "Experiment finds evidence for the Majorana fermion, a particle that's its own antiparticle"

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-evidence-majorana-fermion-particle-antiparticle.html

Extract: "Far in the future, Zhang said, Majorana fermions could be used to construct robust quantum computers that aren't thrown off by environmental noise, which has been a big obstacle to their development. Since each Majorana is essentially half a subatomic particle, a single qubit of information could be stored in two widely separated Majorana fermions, decreasing the chance that something could perturb them both at once and make them lose the information they carry.
For now, he suggests a name for the chiral Majorana fermion his team discovered: the "angel particle," in reference to the best-selling 2000 thriller "Angels and Demons" in which a secret brotherhood plots to blow up the Vatican with a time bomb whose explosive power comes from matter-antimatter annihilation. Unlike in the book, he noted, in the quantum world of the Majorana fermion there are only angels - no demons."

41
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 21, 2017, 05:21:39 PM »
While it is nice that the Southern Hemisphere (driven by low Antarctica and Southern Ocean surface temperatures) was relatively cool in June, I note that most of us live in the Northern Hemisphere, which per the attached Karsten Haustein plot issued today, was relatively warm in June and is likely to be unusually warm by the end of July 2017:

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

42
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: July 21, 2017, 05:11:26 PM »
In the way of color commentary, it seems to me that the linked reference (and associated article) about biospheric feedback effect in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth system is a play to try to document the potential validity of negative emissions technology like BECCS using ACME (Phase 1).  While ACME tries to account for the impact of phosphorous on the biosphere, I am concerned that much of their focus on BECCS is just happy talk, which will not prevent a socio-economic collapse in the 2050 to 2060 timeframe.  Nevertheless, it appears that these BECCS assumptions & associated projections will be rolled into both CMIP6 and AR6 to further the illusion that the situation is in capable hands (i.e. the DOE [which runs ACME] controlled by Rick Perry).

Peter E. Thornton et al, Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems, Nature Climate Change (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3310

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n7/full/nclimate3310.html?foxtrotcallback=true

Abstract: "Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy–economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low–mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system—demonstrated here—are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy–economic models to ESMs used to date."

See also the associated linked article entitled:  Titan simulations show importance of close two-way coupling between human and Earth systems"

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-titan-simulations-importance-two-way-coupling.html

Extract: "Through the Advanced Scientific Computing Research Leadership Computing Challenge program, Thornton's team was awarded 85 million compute hours to improve the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) effort, a project sponsored by the Earth System Modeling program within DOE's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Currently, ACME collaborators are focused on developing an advanced climate model capable of simulating 80 years of historic and future climate variability and change in 3 weeks or less of computing effort.

Now in its third year, the project has achieved several milestones—notably the development of ACME version 1 and the successful inclusion of human factors in one of its component models, the iESM.

"What's unique about ACME is that it's pushing the system to a higher resolution than has been attempted before," Thornton said. "It's also pushing toward a more comprehensive simulation capability by including human dimensions and other advances, yielding the most detailed Earth system models to date.

The development of iESM started before the ACME initiative when a multilaboratory team aimed to add new human dimensions—such as how people affect the planet to produce and consume energy—to Earth system models. The model—now a part of the ACME human dimensions component—is being merged with ACME in preparation for ACME version 2.

ACME version 1 will be publicly released in late-2017 for analysis and use by other researchers. Results from the model will also contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, which provides foundational material for climate change assessment reports."

43
In the way of color commentary, it seems to me that the linked reference (and associated article) about biospheric feedback effect in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth system is a play to try to document the potential validity of negative emissions technology like BECCS using ACME (Phase 1).  While ACME tries to account for the impact of phosphorous on the biosphere, I am concerned that much of their focus on BECCS is just happy talk, which will not prevent a socio-economic collapse in the 2050 to 2060 timeframe.

Peter E. Thornton et al, Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems, Nature Climate Change (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3310

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n7/full/nclimate3310.html?foxtrotcallback=true

Abstract: "Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy–economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low–mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system—demonstrated here—are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy–economic models to ESMs used to date."

See also the associated linked article entitled:  Titan simulations show importance of close two-way coupling between human and Earth systems"

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-titan-simulations-importance-two-way-coupling.html

Extract: "Through the Advanced Scientific Computing Research Leadership Computing Challenge program, Thornton's team was awarded 85 million compute hours to improve the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) effort, a project sponsored by the Earth System Modeling program within DOE's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Currently, ACME collaborators are focused on developing an advanced climate model capable of simulating 80 years of historic and future climate variability and change in 3 weeks or less of computing effort.

Now in its third year, the project has achieved several milestones—notably the development of ACME version 1 and the successful inclusion of human factors in one of its component models, the iESM.

"What's unique about ACME is that it's pushing the system to a higher resolution than has been attempted before," Thornton said. "It's also pushing toward a more comprehensive simulation capability by including human dimensions and other advances, yielding the most detailed Earth system models to date.

The development of iESM started before the ACME initiative when a multilaboratory team aimed to add new human dimensions—such as how people affect the planet to produce and consume energy—to Earth system models. The model—now a part of the ACME human dimensions component—is being merged with ACME in preparation for ACME version 2.

ACME version 1 will be publicly released in late-2017 for analysis and use by other researchers. Results from the model will also contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, which provides foundational material for climate change assessment reports."

44
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: July 21, 2017, 04:29:46 PM »
It looks like Trump is trying to build up the confidence of his aides, family members and even himself that no matter how many federal criminal acts they commit, he can pardon them as long as he is president (of course this assurance does not extend to crimes subject to state prosecution, like money laundering, etc.):

Title: "Trump Reportedly Asked Legal Team About His Power to Pardon Aides, Family, Even Himself"

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/07/20/trump_reportedly_asked_lawyers_about_his_power_to_pardon_aides_family_himself.html

Extract: "Currently, the discussions of pardoning authority by Trump’s legal team is purely theoretical, according to two people familiar with the ongoing conversations. But if Trump pardoned himself in the face of the ongoing Mueller investigation, it would set off a legal and political firestorm, first around the question of whether a president can use the constitutional pardon power in that way.

The power to pardon is granted to the president in Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, which gives the commander in chief the power to “grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.” That means pardon authority extends to federal criminal prosecution but not to state level or impeachment inquiries. No president has sought to pardon himself, so no courts have reviewed it."

45
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 21, 2017, 04:19:47 PM »
The linked article discusses how different agencies have adjusted GMSTA measurements thru the past ~ century.

Title: "Explainer: How data adjustments affect global temperature records"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-data-adjustments-affect-global-temperature-records

Edit: GMSTA = Global Mean Surface Temperature Anom

46
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: July 21, 2017, 05:12:49 AM »
I like the direction of this reference as this direction could lead (eventually) to a holographic dual gravitational/string theory, via F-theory.

Christopher Couzens, Craig Lawrie, Dario Martelli, Sakura Schafer-Nameki, Jin-Mann Wong (2017), “F-theory and AdS_3/CFT_2”, arXiv:1705.04679v2

https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.04679
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.04679.pdf

Abstract: “We construct supersymmetric AdS_3 solutions in F-theory, that is Type IIB supergravity with varying axio-dilaton, which are holographically dual to 2d N=(0,4) superconformal field theories with small superconformal algebra. In F-theory these arise from D3-branes wrapped on curves in the base of an elliptically fibered Calabi-Yau threefold Y_3 and correspond to strings in the 6d N=(1,0) theory obtained from F-theory on Y_3. The non-trivial fibration over the wrapped curves implies a varying coupling of the N=4 Super-Yang-Mills theory on the D3-branes. We compute the holographic central charges and show that these agree with the field theory and with the anomalies of self-dual strings in 6d. We complement our analysis with a discussion of the dual M-theory solutions and a comparison of the central charges.”

See also the associated presentation PowerPoint pdf:

Sakura Schafer-Nameki (2017), “F-theory and AdS3 /CFT2”

http://www.strings2017.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/1500_Schafer-Nameki.pdf

Edit: I note that I mention F-Theory in many of my posts in this thread, but in particular you might want to review Replies #83 & #84, as F-Theory is used to create the String Theory Landscape which I refer to extensively and to monstrous moonshine (& the prospect of using black holes as computers).

47
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: July 21, 2017, 03:27:00 AM »
Per the following data, and attached plot, both issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +2.5:


20170620,20170719,2.5

48
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 20, 2017, 09:06:28 PM »
The linked Alternet article cites a three-page July 7 2017 OMB memo that outlines how Trump plans to build a police state, beginning on Oct. 1 2018 (if he gets his way):

Title: "Trump's Budget Shows How He Is Building a Police State"

http://www.alternet.org/trumps-police-state-vision-america-laid-out-white-house-budget-documents

Extract: "Donald Trump plans to turn the federal government into a much more militaristic and paramilitary policing organization while making drastic cuts in the civilian workforce, including non-uniformed law enforcement, a July 7 budget memo shows.

The memo says that the budget for our government’s 2019 fiscal year, which begins on Oct.1, 2018, “will build on the ambitious plans laid out in the president’s first budget” especially through “reducing the federal civilian workforce.”"

49
I would just like to note that in my opinion the force required by the Pine Island Ice Shelf, PIIS, to change the ice flow direction of the Southwest (SW) Tributary Glacier by about 90 degrees will soon (before the boreal summer of 2018) cause a new splitting tension crack across the PIIS by the mechanism illustrated in the first attached image.  Furthermore, it is my opinion that the reaction to such a crack formation in the PIIS will cause a major calving of the SW Tributary Glacier's Ice Shelf as suggested by the growth of the major crack in the SW Tributary Ice Shelf illustrated in the second attachment of a gif sequence provided by solartim27.  If so, this should cause the ice flow velocities of the SW Tributary Glacier to accelerate; which should reduce the boundary shear restrain from the associate border with the Thwaites Glacier.

50
Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 20, 2017, 07:33:55 PM »
Robert Sapolsky is one of the leading neuroscientists in the world (and winner of a MacArthur Genius grant), studying stress in primates (including humans), and he has recently rewritten a 700 page book entitled: "Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst". 

The following is his Ted talk entitled: "Behave: The Biology of Our Best and Worse Selves"

https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_sapolsky_the_biology_of_our_best_and_worst_selves

Extract: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic -- and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares

his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Sapolsky points-out that mankind would need to make a substantial effort to over-come our tribalistic social/biological pre-conditioning.

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