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Messages - AbruptSLR

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1
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: Today at 07:36:14 PM »
"But first let me present the first image of a physicist (say one like Gavin Schmidt a former Global Circulation Modeler & current head of NASA's Goddard Institute) representing a know-it-all scientismist acting like an instant authority & lecturing others (say about the excellent quality of AR5's CMIP5 GCM projections)"

This forum has been host to too many personal attacks on scientists lately. Posting cartoons is not an argument, and this is gratuitous attack.  If you have objections to Dr. Schmidt's defence of climate models, take it to realclimate, where you may engage him directly.

sidd

What does, or does not, constitute a gratuitous attack may be a fine line; and it is not my intent to insult any particular scientist, including Gavin.  I have previously engaged Gavin at RealClimate and I was not satisfied by his response, so I do not intend to engage him again.


2

EMPHATICALLY AGREE WITH MY WHOLE HEART AND WHOLE BEING.

I am trying to not even feel tired when I hear it. I want to let it flow past; No longer a rock in the middle of it's flow but up on the bank singing with glorious nature

Per the attached words from Gandhi, what is in your heart and being is what counts & not some given attainment.

3
sidd

You are right about Reagan of course.

I'd written a long screed, since erased, defending my argument.

You are right,
Terry


The linked article is entitled: "NAFTA’s Real Challenge Is Canada"; and it indicates that it is safe for the US to criticize Canada and vis versa, because we are so closely tied together; and with Trump's approval of the Keystone Pipeline, we are about to become even more closely tied together.

http://www.vnews.com/Trump-has-singled-out-Mexico-but-some-say-NAFTA-s-real-challenge-is-to-the-north-8875078

Extract: "Canada is the largest market for the U.S. as a whole, and for most American states. Since the North American Free Trade Agreement went into effect in 1994, the countries have only become more closely tied together, while trade between the U.S. and Canada has doubled.
But at least in the current political climate, many U.S. businesses, politicians and trade analysts seem more willing to complain about irritants in the U.S. trade relationship with Canada than with Mexico.

In Lighthizer’s confirmation hearing, long-running complaints about a lack of openness in Canada’s dairy and poultry markets, the pricing of lumber imports from Canada into the U.S., and a lack of rigor in Canada’s enforcement of U.S. intellectual property were on full display.

Politicians today, especially free traders who previously supported NAFTA, may be hesitant to incite the administration to further action by criticizing Mexico. But with Canada, politicians are confident they can lob a criticism or two without touching off an international incident.

“There is some element of, ‘It’s always safe to complain about Canada,’ ” Roh said."

4
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: Today at 05:06:41 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM showing weekly Nino plots thru the week ending March 26 2017, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  Collectively, the plots indicate ENSO neutral conditions.

5
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: Today at 05:03:56 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data thru the week centered on March 22, 2017, and both the attached BoM weekly plots (Nino 3.4 and IOD, respectively) thru the week ending March 26 2017, and the attached NOAA plots (Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom & SSTA Evolution, respectively) issued today; we remain in ENSO neutral conditions.


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA

 15FEB2017     27.7 1.6     27.1 0.7     26.9 0.2     28.1 0.0
 22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
 01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
 08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
 15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0
 22MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.8 0.6     27.5 0.2     28.2-0.1

6
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: Today at 04:45:53 PM »
"We have the fate of the whole (biological) world in our hands!"

Au contraire. The rest of the biological world has the deciding vote.

How long do you imagine that we can continue to burn out our biological support structure from beneath our feet, until we ourselves are expunged?

Humans are part of the biology on Earth, and the Holocene was ended and our current era named the Anthropocene for a reason.

7
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: Today at 04:42:03 PM »
Here is the most recent Toon of the Week.

8
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: Today at 03:25:04 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +4.4 (and thus remains ENSO neutral):

9
Even Team Trump was taken aback by Russia's arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny as discussed in the linked article entitled: "U.S. Condemns Arrest of Russian Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny".  I wonder if Team Trump would be so vocal if a Reuters reporter hadn't been there to document the arrest.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-opposition-leader-alexei-navalny-detained-police-during-moscow-protest-n738631

Extract: "The United States harshly criticized Russia's detention of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and hundreds of other protesters Sunday in central Moscow.
A Reuters reporter saw police detain Navalny, who called the rally to protest corruption, on Moscow's Tverskaya Street and put him in a police truck. Hundreds of opposition protesters crowded around the police van and tried to prevent it from taking him away.
A tweet from Navalny's account after the incident said: "Guys, I'm all right. Don't try to break me out. Go on walking down the Tverskaya. Our topic today is fight against corruption.""

10
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: Today at 02:34:19 AM »
We have the fate of the whole (biological) world in our hands!

11
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: Today at 01:15:46 AM »
ASLR: Though I can't always follow it, I enjoy your mix (or juxtaposition) of Buddhist and Western philosophies and ideas.

As my posts tend to be rather convoluted, let me provide some hopefully more concrete examples of the Scientism – Populism Hegelian dialectic double helix dynamic metaphor (mentioned at the end of my last post, Reply #294) applied to some of the discussions in some of the threads within the ASIF.  But first let me present the first image of a physicist (say one like Gavin Schmidt a former Global Circulation Modeler & current head of NASA's Goddard Institute) representing a know-it-all scientismist acting like an instant authority & lecturing others (say about the excellent quality of AR5's CMIP5 GCM projections); while the second attached image shows alt-right populist materialism leading a BAU herd off a socio-economic cliff, say by Trump cutting-off funding for NASA/Goddard Institute's GCM projections.

1.  In the "Validation of GCM Models" thread in the Science folder, in my opinion Jim Williams presented Judith Curry's denialist (alt-right populist) case that in order to be worthy of societal/governmental support GCM model projections need to meet engineering/regulatory-scientific levels of model confidence with regard to repeatability (very difficult as we are conducting a one of a kind experience on our Earth Systems), reliability and precision (see the article entitled: " Judith Curry confuses laypeople about climate models", @  https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2017/02/21/judith-curry-confuses-laypeople-about-climate-models/).
Such thinking got the likes of Donald Trump, Lamar Smith, Mitch McConnell, et. al. elected and is going to soon result in major cut-backs in federal support for science models that cannot meet engineering/regulatory-science standards.  While no current-GCM can honestly meet such standards several posters half-indicated that they believed that CMIP5 projection could be treated as if they did meet the current engineering/regulatory-science standards, thus playing into the hands of Judith Curry et. al. and her alt-right populist defense of the lay person.  In a Hegelian dialectic dynamic the evidence-based scientismists would need to wait (while we continue on a BAU pathway towards collapse) until populism swings towards leftist populists like Bernie Sanders in reaction/disgust to the non-evidence based alt-right kleptocratic movement.  However, using information to increase accountability (see the third image of populist a fence-sitter ready to adopt either right or left populism depending on the mode of the day) one can use a Bayesian approach (see the fourth image of Einstein recommending forming priori based on the past that may not perfectly match the present, then correcting for evidence from the moment to create a posterior that serves as a new priori and then repeat).

2.  As my last example in this post, I cite the scientism common in the "Global Surface Air Temperature" thread in the Consequences folder, that hopes to avoid the uncertainties of climate change models by pointing authoritatively to direct observations of Global Surface Air Temperature Anomalies, GMSTA, and only using statistics to interpret the data.  While populist/denialists are familiar with the saying "There are lies, damn lies and statistic" and then they use statistics to shamelessly cherry pick the direct data to support Lamar Smith (head of the US Congresses Science Committee) to attack climate scientists, saying that Congress is the true authority and not some egghead climate scientists like Michael Mann because there is an insufficient amount of observed data to justify wasting public money on fighting climate change when the observed data falls within the window of uncertainty.  I would suggest that again Bayesian techniques can extend the value of limited data sets, and that correction/safety factors could be applied to account for remaining uncertainties (say of for example: Arctic Amplification resulting in a non-stationary situation, an incomplete range of observations, lag-time from radiative forcing to final climate response, etc.), following the Precautionary Principle.

12
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: March 26, 2017, 09:22:43 PM »
While my last post, Reply #293, is speculative as it deal with the future; it included the following quote: "… Metteyya will be a viriya (energy) – type of Bodhisatta.  This indicates to me that (if true) the period after his enlightenment will be associated with low systemic isolation (including in the Hegelian institutional sense [see Replies #264 to 281])."  I introduced Hegelian metaphors to this thread in order to more practicably convey the deeper (but much more complex) underlying systemic characteristics of the HIOTTOE framework, which is itself a set of metaphors intended to convey the still deeper (and still more complex) nature of Dhamma.  However, before posting further predominantly using Hegelian metaphors, I briefly summarize herein some of the deeper metaphors between HIOTTOE and the nature of Dhamma.

In Reply # 119 I stated:  "In a Holographic Information Universe, or a HIOTTOE Universe, as perceived by un-fully realized dimples as "reality", one needs to remembers that what most un-fully realized dimples conceive as time is associated with changes in information entropy of an evolved information network (in particular see Reply #86, where entropy, H, is defined in terms of the system (subject to evolution from Gaussian adaptation) wide aggregation of efficiency.  Where efficiency, E, is information divided by the work/time needed to achieve an event (observation/measurement) with a probability P of occurrence, and –log (P) is the unit-less measure of information transmitted.  Thus E = −P log(P), and H = the summation of E for a system subject to evolution).

In HIOTTOE, an un-fully realized dimple cannot see beyond its preconceptions of the information contained in the free-will network, resulting in numerous event horizons (or parity horizons) that create the various kaplas cited in the edit to Reply # 117.  For instance if one (un-fully realized dimple) considers one's mind as the universe that one lives in then one's perception of one's series of re-birth's through "time" is associated with the evolution of choices that the dimple makes based on the evolution of the state of mind creates by information with in the free-will network that it clings to, thus resulting in the illusion of a series of lives that one cannot see beyond."

The prior quote from Reply #119 only discusses the nature of indirect information within the free-will information network.  However, direct information within the free-will information network is related to the awakening/enlightenment of Bodhisatta as briefly discussed in the following quote from Reply #153 [see also page 7 of U Chit Tin (1992)]:  "In Reply #115 I provide links to references discussing the relationship of dark energy to "Holographic Dark Information Energy" that indicate that "… algorithmic entropy of the universe always increases because the extra states produced by the accelerating expansion compensate for the loss of entropy from star formation."  Furthermore, the reference in Reply #148 provides specific mathematics as to how Holographic information theory accounts for dark energy.

With this in mind I reiterate that HIOTTOE is based on an evolving free-will information network that cyclically (and timelessly) reconfigures itself into different configurations (depending on the free-will choices) that metaphorically correspond to the dimples (baby universes) in the String Theory Landscape.  In this regards dark energy can be calculated based on changes in information entropy.  Furthermore, dark matter can be related to significantly, but partially realized, free-will information dimples, or arahants ranging from stream dippers: pakati-savaka, maha-savaka, agga-savaka, to pacceka-bodhisatta.  Finally, the baby universes are sub-divided based on the maha-bodhisatta associated with these free-will information network configurations.

In this regards, the configuration of the free-will information network associated with the observable universe results in 68% dark energy, 27% dark matter and 5% normal matter (see the following Forbes article); which can be used to help characterize the specifics of how the free-will information network is currently configured"

Furthermore, the following quote comes from Reply #168: "In an evolved Holographic Information Universe the laws of physics (or laws of dhamma in HIOTTOE ) evolve with "time".  In my last post I noted that the Constructor Theory, QBism, Shape Dynamics and other work might serve to help establish & extend the ER=EPR conjecture into a firmer understanding of a Holographic Information Universe.  Furthermore, if the Holographic Information Universe is a subset of HIOTTOE then it is also possible that a clearer understanding of the wisdom conveyed by the Buddha Gotama might also help to establish a firmer understanding of a Theory of Everything.  In this regards in Reply #117, I noted that per the Pali Canon the present kalpa is called the bhadrakalpa, or Auspicious aeon; which has (or will have depending on how you think about time) five Great (Maha-) Bodhisattas (which are of three types: panna, saddha and viriya) who are: Kakusandha, Koṇāgaman, Kassapa, Gotama & Metteyya; and who are associated with the parity horizon between our universe and the others in the Nibbanic equivalent of the String Theory Landscape.  Also, in my last post I reiterated that arahantship could be associate with black holes and their event horizon (I note that as content inside of a black hole's event horizon occurs in the future, that the arahants for Metteyya already affect the observable universe).  As arahantship is associated with abhijna/abhinna, I provide the following Wikipedia link on this topic:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abhij%C3%B1%C4%81

Extract: " Abhijñā (Skt., Pali, abhiññā; Tib., mngon shes, མངོན་ཤེས་) has been translated generally as "knowing," "direct knowing" and "direct knowledge" or, at times more technically, as "higher knowledge" and "supernormal knowledge." In Buddhism, such knowing and knowledge is obtained through virtuous living and meditation. In terms of specifically enumerated knowledges, these include worldly extra-sensory abilities (such as seeing past and future lives) as well as the supramundane extinction of all mental intoxicants (āsava)."

I provide all of these quotes from my prior posts just to make the following points related to my opening paragraph that following the socio-economic collapse the possibility that Metteyya might be an energy-type Great Bodhisatta indicates that Hegelian institutions can be established to facilitate both low systemic socio-economic entropy that will in turn facilitate the enlightenment of many times more individuals than occurred during the period of Buddha Gotama:

1.  If one considers the Hegelian dialectic double spiral as one of many stream flows in Gotama's analogy of a river (life) flowing to the sea (Nibbana), then Gotama's wisdom-type teachings serves as a small boat to help carry an aspirant to the far shore; then Metteyya's potential future energy (entropy)-type teaching (including Hegelian systemic insights) may act as a big boat to carry more individuals to the far shore.

2.  In HIOTTOE terms the points made in Item 1 could be rephrased to indicate that in a Holographic Universe the lowest bodhisatta or stream dippers (pakati-savaka bodhisattas) correspond to individual sized boats that correspond to very small black holes that are not subject to evaporation from Hawking's' radiation.  While the five Great Bodhisattas of the bhadrakalpa, require a penultimate energy (entropy) – type Great Bodhisatta to result in a free-will information network configuration/circuit corresponding to the observable universe.

3.  A Hegelian thesis is a partial truth that creates entropy/suffering that in turn creates an antithesis as a complementary partial truth with complementary entropy/suffering, much like the crest and trough of a wave in a river (life).

In this sense if one takes a Hegelian thesis that modern Scientism (incomplete science) and its associated technology (fossil fuel industry, military-industrial complex and globalism) has led to our current overshoot and climate change then this could be considered (by Kleptocrats like Steve Bannon et. al.) as creating the current isolationist populism that distrusts intellectuals, globalism and evidence-based science that doesn't feed its appetite for material goods/power; then in order to systemically decrease the entropy associated with this Hegelian dialectic dynamic, one would need to develop both institutions and information theory/science to hold accountable all parties for the partial truths that create the Hegelian dialectic double spiral of continuing/increasing suffering/entropy.  Again accountability (in an evidenced-based sense) is the key to reducing this Hegelian spiral of suffering leading to the coming socio-economic collapse, but information theory/science, AI, and AWE (artificial wisdom evolved) will survive the socio-economic collapse and may facilitate a period of sustainable society overlain on top of the consequences of our overshoot.  Lastly, the attached image illustrates the consequences of living a life with no preconceived ideas.

See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bodhisattva

13
AbruptSLR,  Those of us pursuing ' small is beautiful ' solutions but old enough not likely to live until the 2045-2060 transition are challenged with transferring gained knowledge to those who will be living thru bottleneck times.

Bruce,

I am distracted by other matters at the moment but I thought that I would post the following quote from Gandhi:  “Anything that exists is possible. And with possibility begins hope. And with hope, we can change the world."

Best regards,
ASLR

14
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 26, 2017, 09:42:32 AM »
The linked Science article is entitled: "Lamar Smith, unbound, lays out political strategy at climate doubters’ conference", and it indicates that Smith has been emboldened by the election of Trump, to more aggressively attack many evidenced based science issues including climate research:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/lamar-smith-unbound-lays-out-political-strategy-climate-doubters-conference

Extract: "Representative Lamar Smith (R–TX) rarely expresses his true feelings in public. But speaking yesterday to a like-minded crowd of climate change doubters and skeptics, the chairman of the science committee in the U.S. House of Representatives acknowledged that the committee is now a tool to advance his political agenda rather than a forum to examine important issues facing the U.S. research community.

Emboldened by the election of President Donald Trump, Smith appears increasingly comfortable dismissing those who disagree with his stance on any number of issues under the purview of his science committee, from climate research to the use of peer review in assessing research results and grant proposals. And one key element in his strategy appears to be relabeling common terms in hopes of shaping public dialogue.

In fact, as Smith told one audience member who worried that Trump might renege on some to his campaign promises, the sky’s the limit when it comes to dismantling the past 8 years of environmental regulations.

“I think the president has ushered in a permanent change in the political climate,” Smith asserted. “And by that I mean I think he’ll keep his promises and that he’ll do exactly what he said. You’re seeing that in his appointments, like Scott Pruitt at EPA, for example. So … I don’t think you’ll have any disappointment on any of those issues.”"

15
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: March 26, 2017, 09:26:54 AM »
Just for fun, I provide the linked reference (with an open access pdf), which is a scholarly work containing a wide range of information related to the coming the Great Bodhisatta Metteyya, and which indicates that Metteyya will be a viriya (energy) – type of Bodhisatta.  This indicates to me that (if true) the period after his enlightenment will be associated with low systemic isolation (including in the Hegelian institutional sense).  Furthermore, in Reply #20, I indicate that Metteyya may be born (and/or conceived) in 2017; and in Reply #168, I associate Metteyya with the "Auspicious Aeon" (bhadrakalpa).  Herein I speculate that the golden age of the bhadrakalpa will follow the enlightenment of Metteyya; which I suspect may occur around an age of 35 to 40, circa 2052 to 2058.


Sayagyi U Chit Tin, PhD. Assisted by William Pruitt, PhD. (1992), "The Coming Buddha Ariya Metteyya", The Wheel Publication No. 381/383, Buddhist Publication Society, Kandy, Sri Lanka

https://what-buddha-said.net/library/pdfs/Metteyya.pdf

Extract: "Great Bodhisattas are of three types: (1) those in whom wisdom (panna) is predominant, (2) those in whom faith (saddha) is predominant, and (3) those in whom energy (viriya) is predominant.

According to the commentary on the Anagatavamsa, those in whom wisdom is predominant, which was the case for the Bodhisatta who became Buddha Gotama, …

Those in whom energy is predominant, as is the case for Bodhisatta Metteyya …

… the fact that a Bodhisatta for whom energy is predominant develops the perfections four times as long as a Bodhisatta for whom wisdom is predominant."


Notes:
(A) It is commonly accepted that Buddha Gotama become enlightened at an age of 35 (see the following linked Wikipedia article).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gautama_Buddha

(B) I discount the value of much of the information about Metteyya contained in the non-canonical Pali texts including: the Anagatavamsa, the Dasabohisattuppattikatha, the Dasabodhisatta-uddesa, the Dasavatthuppakarana, the Sihalavatthupakarana and the Mahavamsa [all cited, for scholarly completeness, in U Chit Tin (1992)].

16
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: March 26, 2017, 08:52:34 AM »
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: " From Canada to Siberia, Permafrost Thaw Produces ‘Hell’s Mouth’ Craters, Sinking Lands, and 7,000 Methane Pockets Waiting to Blow", and it notes that the AR5 projections do not adequately account for these sources of GHG this century:

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/03/24/from-canada-to-siberia-permafrost-thaw-produces-hells-mouth-craters-sinking-lands-and-7000-methane-pockets-waiting-to-blow/

17
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: March 26, 2017, 04:06:46 AM »
The first image shows the Thwaites Ice Tongue in December 2012, and the second shows the Ice Tongue in March 2015.  It looks to me like the large grounded at the seaward end of the degraded Ice Tongue is the same feature but somewhat degraded with time.

18
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: March 26, 2017, 03:27:06 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.8:

19
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: March 25, 2017, 10:57:36 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Is empathy a luxury in the age of Trump?", and features an interview with the renowned sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild (ARH).  This information (together with that in my three immediately prior posts) helps to dialectically understand the underpinnings of the alt-right populist movement in the USA:

http://news.berkeley.edu/berkeley_blog/is-empathy-a-luxury-in-the-age-of-trump/

Extract: "The election of Barack Obama marked the emergence of the Tea Party, a radical right-wing movement that challenged the Republican establishment and ultimately fueled the rise of Donald Trump.

We discussed her research for Strangers in Their Own Land, what it could tell us about how divided America has become—and how we might begin to bridge our differences.

Emotions are at the bottom of anybody’s political beliefs. Those emotions are evoked by a story that feels true. So a deep story is a story that feels true. You take facts out of a deep story, you take moral judgments out of a story.

Their deep story is that you’re waiting in line, as in a pilgrimage. At the top of the hill is the American Dream. The line hasn’t moved. You really deserve to move forward, because you’ve done what everyone said you should do. Why isn’t it moving?

Then you see people who are cutting into line ahead of you—they’re blacks, women, immigrants—who are taking jobs formerly reserved for white men. Then you see Barack Obama, who is supposed to be supervising the line, actually signaling to the line-cutters. He’s their sponsor. He looks like them. He’s a line-cutter himself.

Then you realize that the federal government is actually their government—the government of the line-cutters. He’s their president. He’s supporting them. And in essence, he is the instrument of your marginalization, pushing you backwards. And then you see someone ahead of you in line who turns around and adds insult to injury by saying, “Oh, you’re just a redneck.”

All of this is going on while you, in fact, are not feeling good about yourself. In a way, you’re kind of in mourning for a lost identity and way of life—a life with good, union-supported industrial jobs. And you feel like there’s no one who sees your distress. You’ve been in line for a long time, and each of those line-cutters seems to be saying, through identity politics, “Poor me, oh, poor me.”

You do not believe in identity politics. You don’t say, “I’m a white man and I’m waiting in line, too.” Because you have an ethic that says you shouldn’t call on people’s pity or sympathy. You just obey the rules and work hard. And so there’s something dishonorable about what they have done. At the same time—and here’s your conflict—you do feel like a forgotten minority group. So without believing in a culture of victimhood, you feel like a victim.

And then you have Donald Trump come along and say, “Hey, you are a victim, and it’s OK. You are a stranger in your own land, and I am your guy. I’m representing you.”

JAS: In your book, you write: “Race seemed everywhere in the physical surroundings, but almost nowhere in spontaneous direct talk.” Barack Obama’s election catalyzed the Tea Party movement, and you describe, in your book, some racially-charged attitudes toward the president. Based on your interviews, to what degree do you think the Tea Party and Trump’s campaign were fueled by racial fears?

ARH: I think, definitely, they were fueled by racial fears. But you have to understand the deeper story that those racial fears are embedded in. When you say, “Oh, it’s racism,” then you’ve suddenly objectified the person. “Oh, they’re an evil racist and sexist, and they’re not educated.”"

20
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: March 25, 2017, 10:49:55 PM »
The linked article is entitled: “Our Miserable 21st Century“, and it references a 2016 study report entitled: “Where Have All the Workers Gone?” by Alan B. Krueger.  This work raises the prospect that the rise of alt-right populism is related to the  7 million opioid addicted, prime-age, unemployed men with their drugs being paid for by Medicaid so they cannot afford to look for work that would end their disability pay.

https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/our-miserable-21st-century/


Extract: “In the fall of 2016, Alan Krueger, former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, released a study that further refined the picture of the real existing opioid epidemic in America: According to his work, nearly half of all prime working-age male labor-force dropouts—an army now totaling roughly 7 million men—currently take pain medication on a daily basis.
We already knew from other sources (such as BLS “time use” surveys) that the overwhelming majority of the prime-age men in this un-working army generally don’t “do civil society” (charitable work, religious activities, volunteering), or for that matter much in the way of child care or help for others in the home either, despite the abundance of time on their hands. Their routine, instead, typically centers on watching—watching TV, DVDs, Internet, hand-held devices, etc.—and indeed watching for an average of 2,000 hours a year, as if it were a full-time job. But Krueger’s study adds a poignant and immensely sad detail to this portrait of daily life in 21st-century America: In our mind’s eye we can now picture many millions of un-working men in the prime of life, out of work and not looking for jobs, sitting in front of screens—stoned.

But how did so many millions of un-working men, whose incomes are limited, manage en masse to afford a constant supply of pain medication? Oxycontin is not cheap. As Dreamland carefully explains, one main mechanism today has been the welfare state: more specifically, Medicaid, Uncle Sam’s means-tested health-benefits program.

In 21st-century America, “dependence on government” has thus come to take on an entirely new meaning.

You may now wish to ask: What share of prime-working-age men these days are enrolled in Medicaid? According to the Census Bureau’s SIPP survey (Survey of Income and Program Participation), as of 2013, over one-fifth (21 percent) of all civilian men between 25 and 55 years of age were Medicaid beneficiaries. For prime-age people not in the labor force, the share was over half (53 percent). And for un-working Anglos (non-Hispanic white men not in the labor force) of prime working age, the share enrolled in Medicaid was 48 percent.

By the way: Of the entire un-working prime-age male Anglo population in 2013, nearly three-fifths (57 percent) were reportedly collecting disability benefits from one or more government disability program in 2013. Disability checks and means-tested benefits cannot support a lavish lifestyle. But they can offer a permanent alternative to paid employment, and for growing numbers of American men, they do."

21
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 25, 2017, 07:31:04 PM »
The linked article is entitled: ““SNL” predicted this: Eric Trump inadvertently spills the beans on his unethical relationship with his father”.  This provides evidence that Trump values his own profit more than the well-being of the nation/world.

http://www.salon.com/2017/03/24/saturday-night-live-predicted-this-eric-trump-spills-the-beans-on-his-unethical-relationship-with-his-father/

Eric admitted that he does discuss “the bottom line, profitability reports and stuff like that, but you know, that’s about it” with his father. When asked about the regularity with which he does so, Eric said, “depending, yeah, depending,” before clarifying (after being asked whether it might be quarterly), “yeah, probably quarterly.”

Eric capped off the remarkable exchange with a boast that could have come out of Moffatt’s mouth: “My father and I are very close. I talk to him a lot. We’re pretty inseparable.”

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: March 25, 2017, 04:31:38 PM »
"...  climate attractors amplify climate sensitivity above what it would be otherwise ..."

I do not understand. Climate trajectories explore the phase space in the attractor's basin of convergence, the climate sensitivity is only properly defined within that basin. The stucture of the attractor defines the sensitivity, and i do not understand what "amplifies" means in this context.

What I was rather clumsily trying to say is that as computer power is limited, current state-of the-art Earth System Models are not properly follow chaos theory (using the phase space in the attractor's basin), and as they are unlikely to be able to do so for many decades (well after my estimated socio-economic collapse in the 2045 - 2060 timeframe); I recommend that AR6 not only recalibrate their ESM response sensitivities, but that they also include discussions about key climate attractors like for example ENSO (which is dependent on both phase relationships of multiple feedback mechanisms and on initial boundary conditions).  I use this as an exampled as there is plenty of evidence that aerosols over the Tropical Pacific have a major impact on ENSO (& I believe that an increasingly El Nino-like ENSO will not only directly increase GMSTA but will also accelerate Arctic Amplification) and thus localized control of aerosols over the Tropical Pacific may be able to blunt feedbacks that may drive ECS towards 5C this century (see the middle panel of the attached image by Andrew from the 2015 Ringberg Workshop).

Edit: I provide the second image of ECS from various different paleo-eras, to demonstrate the ECS is not a fixed number but is dependent upon the level of activation of the various feedback mechanisms under different climate conditions.

23
The linked article is entitled: "Climate change is more than a tech problem, so we need more than a tech solution".  Due to the limit window of opportunity for timely responses, and due to the scale of our current 'overshoot' situation; I do not believe that the recommended combination of "small is beautiful" systemic social change and "green" technology, will not be sufficient to prevent a socio-economic collapse (circa 2045 to 2060); nevertheless, I believe that both such efforts will help the generation that survive the coming collapse, and thus I support such triage efforts.

https://ensia.com/voices/climate-change-social-fix/

Extract: "Climate change mitigation requires systemic social change, not just technological optimism.

A systems approach to solving problems requires that we look to root causes and seek interventions that change patterns of outcomes.

Climate change is just one of many related sustainability problems that the world faces. In addition to rising atmospheric CO2, we are approaching or have already exceeded multiple other planetary boundaries — such as fresh water, nitrogen, phosphorus and biodiversity loss — that CO2-mitigating technologies cannot solve.

A systems approach to solving problems requires that we look to root causes and seek interventions that change patterns of outcomes. The root causes of climate change are not technologies such as coal power and industrialized, chemical-intensive agriculture, but the underlying social and cultural systems that created and locked people into these technologies through unsustainable patterns of consumption, growth and inequity.

A common critique of our argument is that problems such as women empowerment and meat consumption are simply too big, too wicked, too complex to solve. This is, however, a psychological hang-up that is not backed up by evidence. The power of small-scale change, whether through incremental and place-based intervention or relatively innocuous “nudges,” is increasingly evinced in ongoing social change, including around issues such as women empowerment and meat eating. Additionally, psychological research suggests that people are generally more comfortable with small-scale change than they are with large-scale reform, which is salient in this age when environmental problems and their possible solutions are so heavily politicized.

Many of today’s most widely debated solutions to climate change fall into a category that emphasizes technological optimism and top-down, engineered solutions. The strategies we highlight here largely fall into another category: solutions that emphasize place-based, social and behavioral innovations. We are not arguing against technology reform. We are arguing that climate change is not, fundamentally, a technological problem.

To be sure, social problems are not easy to solve, but neither are they intractable, unless viewed only from a global, one-size-fits-all perspective. If we use the tools of social innovation alongside technological innovation and embrace a socially focused and place-based approach to our global climate change and sustainability challenges, we will be far better off for it."

24
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: March 25, 2017, 02:26:02 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +3.1:

25
The linked article is entitled: "Could the law driving computing leaps speed up climate protection?"; & the authors indicate that the participants in the Paris Pact should accelerate their rate of carbon emission reductions.

http://www.dw.com/en/could-the-law-driving-computing-leaps-speed-up-climate-protection/a-38072984

Extract: "A new report says the UN's incremental approach to reducing emissions is all wrong. The effort needs to come on strong early - and lessons can be learned from the evolution of computing."

26
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: March 24, 2017, 09:30:40 PM »
Looks like the Thwaites tongue is calving.

steve s,

Great catch, & the first attached image is a Sentinel image from March 22 2017, showing the same event.  That said, I think that rather than calling it a calving event it might be more accurate to say that the iceberg that calved in 2012 (see the second image) has finally become ungrounded (see the third image of the grounding point #2). 

27
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: March 24, 2017, 02:27:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +3.0:

28
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: March 24, 2017, 01:51:10 AM »
As a follow-up to my last post, the linked article is entitled: "Missing 2 to 3 hours of sleep has same crash risk as driving drunk, finds AAA report".  This illustrate that just pushing harder (on ourselves and those around us) is actually part of the problem.

http://www.cos-mag.com/employee-wellness/31945-missing-2-to-3-hours-of-sleep-has-same-crash-risk-as-driving-drunk-finds-aaa-report/

Extract: "The report found that in a 24-hour period, crash risk for sleep-deprived drivers increased steadily when compared to drivers who slept the recommended seven hours or more:
•Six to seven hours of sleep: 1.3 times the crash risk
•Five to six hours of sleep: 1.9 times the crash risk
•Four to five hours of sleep: 4.3 times the crash risk
•Less than four hours of sleep: 11.5 times the crash risk.

Nearly one in three people surveyed by the foundation admit that at least once in the past month they drove when they were so tired they had a hard time keeping their eyes open."

29
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: March 24, 2017, 01:14:16 AM »
The linked article is entitled: “The Forces Driving Middle-Aged White People's 'Deaths Of Despair'”.  The message that I take away from this, is that both systems, and people, need to learn to honestly adapt to change, and they need to learn sooner rather than later.

http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2017/03/23/521083335/the-forces-driving-middle-aged-white-peoples-deaths-of-despair

Extract: “In a follow-up to their groundbreaking 2015 work, they say that a lack of steady, well-paying jobs for whites without college degrees has caused pain, distress and social dysfunction to build up over time. The mortality rate for that group, ages 45 to 54, increased by a half percent each year from 1999 to 2013.

But whites with college degrees haven't suffered the same lack of economic opportunity and haven't seen the same loss of life expectancy. The study was published Thursday in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Case and Deaton, who are both at Princeton University, spoke with NPR's David Greene about what's driving these trends.”

30
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: March 23, 2017, 08:48:46 PM »
This post is provided as a follow-up to my last post about developing the skill required to discern the truth in a 'wicked problem' type of system:
Denialists claim the right to use non-evidence-based alternate 'truths' to support their predetermined objectives; which can create a conflict/tension (in the Hegelian dialectical double helix sense) with evidence-based science.  Within the HIOTTOE framework, I submit that dialectically seeking evidenced based truths lead (in the limit) to an end of systemic isolation; which can be verified by the reduction/elimination of Hegelian dialectical conflict/tension and the associated rise of loving kindness (i.e. Metta, see Reply #59) within the system (information network) under consideration.  This is an important consideration when seeking a path forward for a 'wick problem' such as for the tyranny of small decisions leading to climate change driven socio-economic collapse; within the context of the coming 4th Industrial Revolution.  As currently being developed, AI can be used by both non-evidence-based, and evidenced-based, factions/spirals of a Hegelian dialectical double helix.  Thus AI programmers need to be provided with guidance on algorithm to use to parse the difference between non-evidence-based 'truths' and evidenced-based 'truths' within the context of a 'wick problem'.

Within HIOTTOE (based on a freewill information network), indirect knowledge (evidence) of freewill creates the illusion of change that in turn creates the illusions of time, space, matter, energy and a timelessly-evolved multi-dimensional multiverse.  This dynamic also creates the illusion of freewill for the non-evidence-based faction while direct knowledge is the only way to discern truth freewill.

For ease of reference, HIOTTOE means Holographic Cybernetic Organism (Holoborg) Interpretation of the Theory of Everything; to which other scientific theories such as: Quantum Theory, The Theory of Relativity, String Theory, and Quantum Gravity Theory; are considered to be subsets that deal only with indirect knowledge, and not direct, knowledge of the freewill information network (which in turn is assumed to be a subset of the laws of dhamma).  While the cultivation of direct knowledge leading to nibbana is best addressed by mindfulness techniques such as Vipassana, HIOTTOE is appropriate for dealing with indirect knowledge according to the rules of Information Theory/Science, and its use in 'wick problems' by institutions and socio-economic systems via metaphors including the Hegelian dialectic double helix.

In future posts I plan to elaborate on the use of Information Science, AI, HIOTTOE metaphors, art metaphors and the Hegel dialectic in order to discuss means to reduce the systemic isolation of institutions & socio-economic systems that are currently accelerating towards collapse.
With regards to recent AI developments, see also:

http://distill.pub/about/
&
https://blog.openai.com/
&
https://deepmind.com/
&
https://research.google.com/teams/brain/
&
https://research.google.com/bigpicture/
&
http://ycr.org/

And as a correct understanding of HIOTTOE requires an appropriate understanding of information entropy, see the following reference that uses information theory to demonstrate how to extract more work from a closed system than can be achieved using only classical theory; which also has implications for interpretation of the evolution of entropy within a holographic universe.

Gianluca Francica, John Goold, Francesco Plastina & Mauro Paternostro (2017), "Daemonic ergotropy: enhanced work extraction from quantum correlations", npj Quantum Information 3, Article number: 12, doi:10.1038/s41534-017-0012-8.

http://www.nature.com/articles/s41534-017-0012-8

Abstract: "We investigate how the presence of quantum correlations can influence work extraction in closed quantum systems, establishing a new link between the field of quantum non-equilibrium thermodynamics and the one of quantum information theory. We consider a bipartite quantum system and we show that it is possible to optimize the process of work extraction, thanks to the correlations between the two parts of the system, by using an appropriate feedback protocol based on the concept of ergotropy. We prove that the maximum gain in the extracted work is related to the existence of quantum correlations between the two parts, quantified by either quantum discord or, for pure states, entanglement. We then illustrate our general findings on a simple physical situation consisting of a qubit system."

31
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 23, 2017, 07:08:49 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Nunes apologizes to House Intel Committee, member says".  Nunes appears to have compromised himself and he should recuse himself from further investigation or face independent investigation himself for being a stooge for the administration that is itself under criminal investigation by the FBI.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/23/politics/devin-nunes-reaction-house-intelligence-committee-congress/

Extract: "House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes apologized to committee members Thursday, a Democrat on the panel told reporters, coming the day after Nunes told the public and the President that communications of him and associates may have been collected by intelligence agencies before telling Democratic members of the committee."

32
Consequences / Re: Hansen et al paper: 3+ meters SLR by 2100
« on: March 23, 2017, 06:19:35 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "New Video: It's Alive – Microbes and Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet"; and I recommend watching the associated video as it discusses an important positive feedback mechanism for both global warming and for sea level rise that was not included in AR5 projections; but which increases the probable occurrence of Hansen's ice-climate positive feedback mechanism (which also was not included in AR5 projections).

https://www.skepticalscience.com/microbes-melt-gis.html

Extract: "In recent years, several research groups have been looking in detail at the darkening of the ice sheet – and understanding that, as the planet warms, and ice melts, more liquid water means more habitat for bugs, more darkening, more melt,..you get the picture."

33
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: March 23, 2017, 06:17:53 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "New Video: It's Alive – Microbes and Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet"; and I recommend watching the associated video as it discusses and important positive feedback mechanism for both global warming and for sea level rise that was not included in AR5 projections (but which Jason Box has warned about for many years).

https://www.skepticalscience.com/microbes-melt-gis.html

Extract: "In recent years, several research groups have been looking in detail at the darkening of the ice sheet – and understanding that, as the planet warms, and ice melts, more liquid water means more habitat for bugs, more darkening, more melt,..you get the picture."

34
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 23, 2017, 05:32:12 PM »
And so it begins; the linked article is entitled: "Bill Would Bar Discrimination Toward Climate Change Doubters"; which could make evidence-based scientists guilty of hate crime if say they were to deny a climate change denying scientist (with research funded by the fossil fuel industry) a tenured position.

http://staging.hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CLIMATE_CHANGE_DISCRIMINATION?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2017-03-22-19-01-38

35
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: March 23, 2017, 09:35:09 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Climate denier in White House prompts a 'March for Science' on Earth Day", and it indicates that the organizers are in need of funding as it has become more difficult to get the necessary permits for such a nationwide event since January 20, 2017.

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/politics/article/With-climate-denier-in-White-House-a-March-for-11018058.php

36
Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: March 23, 2017, 08:54:56 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "MIT researchers have developed a tree on a chip, with potential applications in robotics".  This could help make extremely small robots practicable.

http://tech.firstpost.com/news-analysis/mit-researchers-have-developed-a-tree-on-a-chip-with-potential-applications-in-robotics-367997.html

Extract: "The passive pumping on the device, which the researchers have dubbed as a “tree-on-a-chip” can potentially be used as actuators for extremely small robots, or nanobots."

See the associated research article at:

http://www.nature.com/articles/nplants201732

37
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 23, 2017, 03:01:50 AM »
The linked article is entitled: “US Officials: Info suggests Trump associates may have coordinated with Russians”; and it elaborates on the FBI investigation that Comey confirmed on Monday is being conducted.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/22/politics/us-officials-info-suggests-trump-associates-may-have-coordinated-with-russians/index.html


38
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 23, 2017, 02:32:24 AM »
The linked article is entitled: “Judge orders Exxon to hand over documents related to climate change”.  Tillerson may have some explaining to do.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/22/news/companies/exxon-mobil-climate-change-emails-schneiderman/index.html

39
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: March 23, 2017, 02:25:40 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +2.4:

40
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: March 22, 2017, 06:23:30 PM »
The linked reference discusses model projected changes in extreme precipitation with global warming; and indicates that rainfall will likely increase through 2100; which to my mind will (among other things) accelerate degradation of permafrost.

Guiling Wang, Dagang Wang, Kevin E. Trenberth, Amir Erfanian, Miao Yu, Michael G. Bosilovich, & Dana T. Parr (2017), "The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3239

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3239.html

Abstract: "Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship.  Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe, the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low–medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (Tpeak) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C–C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes, and to a super C–C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (Tmean) far exceed projected increases of Tpeak over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to Tmean produces a misleading sub-C–C scaling rate."

41
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 22, 2017, 05:49:24 PM »

ASLR, not sure why you append this article to my post.  Orrin Pilkey, the author of the book is "Professor Emeritus of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, at Duke University, and Founder and Director Emeritus of the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines (PSDS) which is currently based at Western Carolina University."

I certainly did not intend my post to be anti-science! I'm a PhD ecologist and will be at the march.  But that does not mean that numerical modeling has an outstanding record of success.  There is a lot more to science than just modeling and I'm not sure why you are conflating the two as somehow inseparable.  Here is some more content from his Wikipedia page:

Pilkey began his career with the study of abyssal plains on the deep sea floor. As a result of the destruction of his parents' house in Waveland, Mississippi in Hurricane Camille (1969), he switched to the study of coasts. Pilkey's research centers on both basic and applied coastal geology, focusing primarily on barrier island coasts and the effects of shoreline stabilization and development, and sea-level rise. The PSDS has analyzed the numerical models used by coastal geologists and engineers to predict the movement of beach sand, especially in beach replenishment. In general, Pilkey argues that mathematical models cannot be used to accurately predict the behavior of beaches, although they can be useful if directional or orders-of-magnitude answers are sought. In the book, Useless Arithmetic, written with his daughter, Linda Pilkey-Jarvis, they argue that the outcome of natural processes in general cannot be accurately predicted by mathematical models.[1]
[/quote]

dnem,

I apologize for any confusion that my post may have contributed to (I believe I posted too quickly); as indeed Orrin Pilkey does fight against anti-science efforts.

Here is a link to an article co-authored by Orrin Pilkey were he fights against anti-science efforts in North Carolina:

https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/denying-sea-level-rise-how-100-centimeters-divided-state-north-carolina

However, I do believe that this illustrates how complicated the challenge is of trying to motivate decision makers to follow the Precautionary Principle when denialist can just say that the model in question gives projections that are not sufficiently accurate, so they must use their own personal judgment to cancel funding to support such climate research as the current administration is doing.

42
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 22, 2017, 05:29:58 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Former Trump Campaign Head Manafort Was Paid Millions By A Putin Ally, AP Says".  The plot thickens.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/03/22/521088772/former-trump-campaign-head-manafort-was-paid-millions-by-a-putin-ally-ap-says

Extract: "A Russian billionaire paid former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort millions of dollars to boost the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Associated Press reports. The new allegations arise months after Manafort resigned from the Trump campaign amid concerns over his work for a pro-Russian political party in Ukraine.

"According to documents that we've reviewed, Paul Manafort secretly worked for a Russian oligarch who wanted him to promote Russian interests," the AP's Chad Day tells NPR's Rachel Martin. "And in particular, he wrote a memo that outlined this kind of vast plan for him to promote Russian interests in the former Soviet republics — and also to specifically benefit the Putin government."

Many of the records that snarled Manafort in recent months emerged from Ukraine's new anti-corruption bureau. In this case, Day says his reporting "is not just based on anonymous sources ... the bedrock of this story is based on documents that we've authenticated, and documents that have been corroborated through sources.""

43
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 22, 2017, 04:33:38 PM »
ALSR

What's the origin/copyright of those images

Geoff

Geoff,

I find almost all of the cartoon images that I post using GOOGLE, & thus I do not know the original source.  Therefore, if you want to retro search for the origins of the images you can use one of the following tools:

https://www.imageraider.com/
https://www.tineye.com/
https://support.google.com/websearch/answer/1325808?hl=en

Best,
ASLR

44
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 22, 2017, 04:18:57 PM »
Obviously Jim's position is rather doctrinaire on this topic.  I don't know that much about GCMs but I tend to agree with him that at the end of the day, their utility in helping to understand the climate crisis, and respond to it, will be very limited.  For example, and yes I understand that the time scales are wrong, but the very warm non el nino driven global temps of the past two months are surprising, alarming and suggest that our overall understanding of the climate system is dangerously limited.

Have you all seen Orrin Pilkey's take on this general matter?

Useless Arithmetic
Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future
Orrin H. Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis
Columbia University Press
https://cup.columbia.edu/book/useless-arithmetic/9780231132121

The linked article indicates that the Trump Administration considers climate research a 'waste'.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/03/21/trumps-budget-slashes-climate-research-but-these-scientists-still-have-a-job-to-do/?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.1d97ff9b7bdc

On April 22nd The March for Science will endeavor to teach the Trump Administration the errors of its thinking.

45
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: March 22, 2017, 04:10:12 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Ice cap in place for millions of years is on track to vanish"; & it states that the loss of small glaciers, like Barnes Ice Cap, will likely accelerate in the near future thus accelerating sea level rise.

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060051765

Extract: "Global warming is causing significant melting throughout the region and will claim the last remnants of a massive ice sheet that once covered all of North America and that remained stable for 2,000 years, according to findings published yesterday in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union. The Barnes Ice Cap, which is about the size of Delaware and is located on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, is likely to disappear even if humanity curtails its combustion of fossil fuels at levels not currently expected, even under the most conservative estimations.

All of those suggest a much higher sea level in the near future. Sea-level rise is now coming from small glaciers, such as the Barnes Ice Cap, as well as the expansion of the sea as it gets warmer. But that could quickly change if the current level of warming is observed, Miller said."

46
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: March 22, 2017, 02:28:50 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.8:

47
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 21, 2017, 07:55:11 PM »
Perhaps this thread should be renamed: "If Decision Makers Don't Care to Take Effective Action, Why Should Scientists Work to Refine Their Imperfect GCM Models?"

To bear witness. To leave a record.

As Neven pointed out, the ASIF is doing a good job of documenting the decline of the Arctic Sea Ice for the good of posterity.

Yes, and the need has never been greater with the prospect of climate science being cut off at the knees in the USA. But I am veering in the direction of policy, actions, solutions and can feel a moderator hovering over the delete button. So je suis fini.

At least we will be able to tell future generations that we were fully aware of what was happening as we carefully documented the slide down to the collapse.

48
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: March 21, 2017, 06:18:03 PM »
The linked reference indicates that models indicate that rainfall will increase rapidly in the Arctic in coming years.  This should increase Arctic Amplification to higher levels than previously assumed in AR5 (if for no other reason than that rain will markedly increase methane emissions from Arctic permafrost).

R. Bintanja et al. Towards a rain-dominated Arctic, Nature Climate Change (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3240

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3240.html

Abstract
Climate models project a strong increase in Arctic precipitation over the coming century, which has been attributed primarily to enhanced surface evaporation associated with sea-ice retreat. Since the Arctic is still quite cold, especially in winter, it is often (implicitly) assumed that the additional precipitation will fall mostly as snow. However, little is known about future changes in the distributions of rainfall and snowfall in the Arctic. Here we use 37 state-of-the-art climate models in standardized twenty-first-century (2006–2100) simulations to show a decrease in average annual Arctic snowfall (70°–90° N), despite the strong precipitation increase. Rain is projected to become the dominant form of precipitation in the Arctic region (2091–2100), as atmospheric warming causes a greater fraction of snowfall to melt before it reaches the surface, in particular over the North Atlantic and the Barents Sea. The reduction in Arctic snowfall is most pronounced during summer and autumn when temperatures are close to the melting point, but also winter rainfall is found to intensify considerably. Projected (seasonal) trends in rainfall and snowfall will heavily impact Arctic hydrology (for example, river discharge, permafrost melt), climatology (for example, snow, sea-ice albedo and melt)8, 9 and ecology (for example, water and food availability).

49
The linked article is entitled: "Budget Proposal Would Hamper Climate Efforts Abroad", and it indicates that even if the Trump Administration does not pull out of the Paris Agreement, the Trump Administrations proposed budget (if approved) would make it harder for other countries to meet their pledges.

http://www.standard.net/Government/2017/03/16/Budget-Proposal-Would-Hamper-Climate-Efforts-Abroad

Extract: "The Trump administration’s budget proposal would hamper efforts abroad to slow global warming, especially by poor and fast-developing countries, compounding the hazards of America’s retreat from efforts to ease its own climate impacts.

A 54-page proposal released Thursday would end payments to global climate initiatives, such as a United Nations fund that helps poor countries deploy clean energy and adapt to climate change. It would also sharply reduce funding for the World Bank and other development programs."

50
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: March 21, 2017, 04:24:11 PM »
Maybe instead of measuring increases in GMSTA, we should be focused on monitoring biodiversity loss, as without sufficient biodiversity mankind's future is in doubt.

The linked article is entitled: “Ecological recession”: Researchers say biodiversity loss has hit critical threshold across the globe".  The article references both Newbold et. al. 2016 and Steffen et. al. (2015); both of which indicate that we are already exceeding some planetary boundaries, and will soon exceed others.

https://news.mongabay.com/2016/07/ecological-recession-researchers-ring-the-alarm-as-biodiversity-loss-hits-critical-threshold-across-the-globe/

Extract: "An international team of researchers has concluded that biodiversity loss has become so severe and widespread that it could affect Earth’s ability to sustain human life.

- The researchers examined 2.38 million records of 39,123 terrestrial species collected at 18,659 sites around the world to model the impacts on biodiversity of land use and other pressures from human activities that cause habitat loss.

- They then estimated down to about the one-square-kilometer level the extent to which those pressures have caused changes in local biodiversity, as well as the spatial patterns of those changes.

- They found that, across nearly 60 percent of Earth’s land surface, biodiversity has declined beyond “safe” levels as defined by the planetary boundaries concept, which seeks to quantify the environmental limits within which human society can be considered sustainable.


See also:
Newbold, T., Hudson, L. N., Arnell, A. P., Contu, S., De Palma, A., Ferrier, S., … & Burton, V. J. (2016). Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment. Science, 353(6296), 288-291. doi:10.1126/science.aaf2201

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6296/288

Abstract
Land use and related pressures have reduced local terrestrial biodiversity, but it is unclear how the magnitude of change relates to the recently proposed planetary boundary (“safe limit”). We estimate that land use and related pressures have already reduced local biodiversity intactness—the average proportion of natural biodiversity remaining in local ecosystems—beyond its recently proposed planetary boundary across 58.1% of the world’s land surface, where 71.4% of the human population live. Biodiversity intactness within most biomes (especially grassland biomes), most biodiversity hotspots, and even some wilderness areas is inferred to be beyond the boundary. Such widespread transgression of safe limits suggests that biodiversity loss, if unchecked, will undermine efforts toward long-term sustainable development.

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Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., … & Folke, C. (2015). Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 347(6223). doi:10.1126/science.1259855

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855

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