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For some reason I still find many of the images on the site appear as broken icons and are not loading. Not sure why.It tells me that permission is required to view the graphs updated for 2017.
Ah sorry I forgot to make the images public. It should be fixed now.
Ah. Methodology flaw alert - thanks Oren. The COUNTIF was looking for days ranked 28th, 27th and 26th. And for dates we haven't had this year yet, they actually only go from 1 to 27.OT developer tips:
I've redone it so it counts if a day is ranked 25th, 26th and 27th i.e. the previous 'bottom 3'. That means that 2006, 2007, 2011 and 2015 gain some bottom 3 days - so yes, by the end of their years they have more bottom 3s than 2017 at the moment. But not by much. As things stand, 2017 could well overtake those year by the end of April.
This needs some more work! Good to have friendly peer-reviewers.
I don't have an online graph repository - any suggestions? Google Drive?
...it looks to me like Nares ice is on the move. If so---well, it's a bit early, isn't it?
2016 data, but still....
"China CO2 emissions from fossil fuels down 1%, US down 3% & EU flat says @IEA - global emissions flat for 3rd yr in a row"
"This matters. But this is like smoker holding steady at 3 packs a day—emissions are still accumulating in the atmosphere at record rates."
Carbon Dioxide Is Rising at Record Rates
So, CO2 rising at record rates while major economies are reducing rates. Attributable to feedbacks?
...we have to wait and see what happens in the coming years given the very large yearly variability.And given Hansen's feedback of melting glaciers resulting in increased sea ice around Antarctica. Should the WAIS mass loss continue to accelerate, there will be a large input of fresh cold water into the southern ocean. Very different from the Arctic, continent in the middle vs. ocean in the middle.
I might get some flack but I think that genetic modification or advanced hybridization might be the only avenue for maintaining crop yields and avoid widespread famine...The best avenue to avoid widespread famine is to have fewer babies.
Prof. Jeffrey Kargel, Glaciologist at the University of Arizona, said:
“This new work by Qinghua Ding and others – involving an analysis of the observational record of sea ice and numerical model testing to root out the causes of long-term decline and yearly variations in Arctic sea ice – does well to explain links between long-term weather in the Arctic and year-to-year variations in sea ice on the same time frame. In other words, weather and sea ice melting and sea ice extent are connected, and Arctic weather is connected to weather elsewhere in the world, even as far away as the tropical Pacific Ocean.
“The already well-established, if imperfectly known, many-decades-long climatic connections to human root causes of the decline in sea ice are not this paper’s focus. Even so, these authors’ and others’ work shows that burning of fossil fuels is having a large direct impact in contributing to rapid sea ice declines. This paper does well to explore the effects on Arctic sea ice of year-to-year variations in Arctic and global long-term weather. The paper does less well to explore how the ‘weather’ part of the variations are also connected indirectly– partially– to rising greenhouse gas abundances.
Does not the lack of a calving face indicate that the terminal section of the glacier has thinned (presumably via bottom melt) to the point where it is now at or close to sea level?I highly doubt that bottom melt (really frontal melt as the ice rests on the ground underwater) can eat through hundreds of meters of ice thickness like that, but possibly the front is partially collapsed?
From deep Africa, where population growth is exponential, given that women marry at very young age and give birth to very many children:This article is so depressing. Such a poor country with such a high birth rate and such a culture. Totally hopeless.The only questions remaining are when will Niger collapse, and in what manner (Widespread famine? Civil war? Attacking neighbouring countries? A fundamentalist revolution? All of the above?)
"Having lots of children is the norm because they bring wealth (“they come with two hands to work but only one mouth to feed”). So why have four when you could have seven?"
According to the article, women don't want to use contraceptives, even when they are readily available, because they like to have many children.
The article illustrates why population growth is sure to continue for many decades to come.
If I recall correctly, the deep Atlantic water affect basal melting of Zachariae/79N and Petermann glaciers (and maybe some others) as it flows out of the Arctic basin through Fram and Nares straits.Darvince, the question was not about the halocline, what I think i'm seeing is an increased flow of Atlantic waters penetrating past FJL/NZ into Laptev before it's energy is spent. Plus it appears to accelerate around the new/full moon peak tide min/max. Assuming that continues and as above the ice is practically liquid, and thus the easiest fraction to flush, how fast could the ice be lost? well i did a boe oom calc. and was surprised by the result. Actually shocked, so wondered if anyone else had any idea.
The Atlantic water is thought to flow around the whole of the Arctic Nansen Basin beneath the polar mixed layer, circulating counter clockwise. A-Team showed that the edge of the ice through most of the summer corresponded with bathymetry. Warmer Atlantic water flows down the continental slope to form a layer starting at around 300m depth, Where the Atlantic water is at the surface, on the continental shelf, ice melts. Within the deeper basin the Atlantic water no longer affects the ice as it is too deep, unless the denser warm water remains on the surface; that requires a break down of the Halocline. The Halocline is refreshed by freshwater input from rivers and from melting ice.
There is an association between El Nino occurrences and increases in yr/yr monthly CO2 emissions rates. The most recent El Nino demonstrates that relationship.
What's more troubling is when one observes a CO2 spike with no associated El Nino. The chart illustrates the relationship between ENSO 3.4 (El Nino La Nina and monthly NOAA/ESRL CO2 increases. There is more at:
It doesn't matter for extent if the Arctic is +20 Centigrade above average, it is still below freezing. I'll state the obvious: if the areas where ice can form are cold extent will increase despite the anomalously warm temperatures. It's why SIE is a dangerous metric to point to for sea ice loss.Obvious but still worth repeating, especially if dispersing winds support the cold temps.
HELP ! Which are the easiest places to get graphs on volume during the month ? (I am a sea ice volume addict and the PIOMAS monthly update fix wears off too soon).Besides the PIOMAS daily data which annoyingly gets updated once a month, there is the DMI volume graph which is notoriously detached from reality/PIOMAS (most visible at the turning points), and an AMSR2 volume graph posted here from time to time. I don't have the links readily available at the moment, but should be easy to find.
It is, but in a process that takes years.possibly in terms of extent, but certainly not the volume. should any 3-5m thick ice be flushed down the fram or elsewhere it cannot be re-plenished within a month and not even within a year's time.
To some extent is not the thicker ice a result of thinner ice being pushed against the shore and piled up by wind and current?
Great. Let's drain Baikal like Aral.Actually Aral is an inland sea and therefore easier to drain than Baikal, which is a pass-through lake. Therefore the main initial effect will be to lessen the outflow of the lake into the Angara river, and therefore less of a problem. Not saying this is a good plan, just that the consequences are somewhat different.
Nature Climate Change, Ice-free Arctic at 1.5 °C? James A. Screen & Daniel Williamson
The article is pay-walled, is anyone aware of an open access copy?
You can download it from the sci-hub website:
There is a download button (labeled: сохранить статью) at the left of that page.
And then there is this astonishing bit of "science"I'll have some of what they're smoking please.
Are these people looking at the same planet that we are?
"Virtually Certain"? Really Who is paying these people?
Words fail me.
Sorry for being off topic (a little) but do you already know this website of Ole Humlum? http://www.climate4you.com - maybe there is a thread for such links too?
It is full of VERY impressive graphics (includes all of shown here, compressed in impressive annual comparsion modes) and actual datas. A real treasure I will dive in today... 😊