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Messages - Bruce Steele

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Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 19, 2017, 06:38:23 PM »
i think the two important data sets  in the article I linked were the continued increases in CO2 emissions.  1990 7 Gt.C
                  2000 8 Gt.C
                  2007 10 Gt.C
                  2013 11 Gt.C
                  2016 11.4 Gt.C
The second point was there has ,over the last three years, been a year over year increase similar to the yearly gains of the 1990s
If we are to argue that the ten year temperature flatline starting in 1998 was  cooked data then maybe we should also question " the emissions over the last three years have plateaued ".
One arguement is from the Black BAU camp, the other is from the Green BAU camp,
BAU is however color blind.

There continues to be a large misunderstanding of atmospheric CO2 increases and what we should expect to happen to those increases if we do manage to plateau our emissions.
They will not drop ! They will continue to increase for many decades . The author of the linked article doesn't understand this and I think someone like RobertScribbler should better understand what we should expect. They will not even decrease in the rate of increase until we drop back several
Giggatonnes of carbon emission per year. That simply isn't happening and if you include fugitive gas emission from gas drilling and the CO2e numbers, like Rboyd has pointed out ,we have already reached doubling. So the important number we should all consider is ECS. If ECS is 4 or higher things are going to get very hot very fast. That is where BAU has gotten us all.     

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 18, 2017, 02:39:01 AM »
From a focus on ocean acidification CO2 numbers are the numbers to watch but from an ECS perspective the CO2e numbers are the numbers to watch.
 How soon will the CO2e cross the 560 ppm threshold ? 
 If ECS is in the 4.5-6 range and we are crossing the 560ppm CO2e threshold within the next decade or two then even pessimists like me are probably still guilty of espousing some version of the
 Pollyanna syndrome . We hope we can offer up some advice for future generations that have to deal with a much hotter climate when indeed it might turn out we will need to live by our own advice.
 Thanks Rboyd , you made my day.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 18, 2017, 01:57:04 AM »
If you compare a buoy that has completed it's mission in the Beaufort like ITP69 the T/S composite is visually similar to ITP 97. The comparisons of the DO composites with those two buoys however show some sort of failure of the oxygen sensors on the ITP97 buoy.
 I will continue to watch the temperature / salinity numbers 97 is reporting because those sensors seem to be in working order. The only other ITP reporting is ITP 95 but it is on the Atlantic side. The temperature numbers are I believe telling a story to watch.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 18, 2017, 12:07:41 AM »
Hyperion, The ITP is dependent upon a sensor running up and down a cable so there are sometimes issues with the mechanics of the sensors daily trip. It does seem like things are settling down a little today but I think the surface temperatures the buoy is reporting should result in some rapid bottom melt.  I am expecting a polynya in the area of ITP 97. 

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: July 17, 2017, 05:37:36 PM »
Here is an open access link to the pteropods paper above.

The important points IMO are
Inability to acclimate , feed availability doesn't compensate for undersaturation stress, undersaturation stress can cause mortality even if pteropods are returned to saturated water conditions, results may explain decrease in pteropods numbers in the northern Calif. Current, predicted undersaturation over a much larger portion of the pteropods range in the Calif. Current in the next thirty years will likely affect pteropods population and carbon cycle contributions

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 16, 2017, 04:14:01 PM »
ITP 97 is showing some very strange conditions. Surface waters have been in the -.4 C to -1.2 C range from the surface to 100 meters for over a week. There is also a concurrent shoaling of saline water from depth. I keep expecting to see some reversion to something more normal but everyday I look at the update and things still look weird .  I know one buoy's data might be just a buoy that is putting out bad numbers , but maybe it is the one source on what the water column is doing . What would a breakdown of the thermocline and the halocline look like ?

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 15, 2017, 06:50:29 AM »
Terry, I so much wish emissions would plateau. I would give anything to see some way to verify ff use had plateaued. I am afraid however that there is no way to verify numbers issued by my government, the Chinese, the Indian government, the Russian government , the Polish government, and since they represent a large enough portion of the total ff emission I don't trust any worldwide claims.
 I really believe there is an attempt to distort our public belief or trust in the truth or what our governments tell us. This is so frickin Orwellian. And I am terrified the distortions are so damn
successful . Nobody knows where we stand. 
 Negotiating emissions targets without getting a handle on verification is pure bullshit !  Put some fricken tracers in all international sales of fuel and coal. Don't tell me this isn't possible. Hell we could probably use sulfur content of various coal deposits to correlate satellite CO2 and SO2 emissions . Just pulling straws but considering the stakes involved I would like to see some ideas from the science on why this is impossible. 
 Like I said before , the present is more terrifying than future scenarios. Jeeze
Trust but Verify is a Russian proverb. Apropos

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 14, 2017, 05:52:30 PM »
Here is an article I find more disturbing than the Wallace-Wells piece. It shows there hasn't been a leveling of oil or gas use there has been a continued increase. It also shows the downturn in coal may be far smaller than that reported because, as we have discussed here on the ASIF , Chine has been under reporting.

Clare, Call me old fashioned but I love my animals and I don't think humans would be what they are without them. Without us they are of course doomed. I saw farmers in Hungary trying to maintain the  heritage of their animals and farm culture when the Soviet Union folded and left the state farms stranded. I can't imagine the pain the changes this proponent of ag 2 envisions as progress. Not !
 I question the market for these products as it appears the vegetarian segment of the population that should ostensibly support the transition is very small.

 Marketing to a small segment of the population is different than converting the entire population. Marketing ethics is different than justifying the proposed changes as reducing fossil fuels and improving soil carbon. I would like to see some lifetime carbon analysis of artificial lighting , artificial soils, etc. Again paint me as dubious.  NZ is well situated to weather the problems a large portion of the rest of the world is going to suffer over the next 30-50 years. Far better than Southern Calif. or Silicon Valley.

Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 13, 2017, 12:25:11 AM »
ASLR, I do not think what I had to say was OT. You are a fan of the Matrix and the red pill ,blue pill choice seems appropriate to me. Why the push back to the Wallace-Wells article? 
 I have taken my share of media training but there is just too much rebel in me to take the blue pill advice.
 Civilization made the choice that it wanted the truth, the red pill and science , a long time ago but apparently the argument is still alive for a great majority of the human race.

Sig, Re. Kettleman City supercharging station. There are several large solar arrays that have been built along Highway 41 that crosses the I-5 at Kettleman. The closest one is only about five miles north.
 It gets pretty hot there so an indoor lounge is necessary. Maybe tesla owners might bring some upscale restaurants to the rather truckstop fare currently available.
 Gas stations in Kettleman charge rather usurious rates for gas with a dollar a gallon higher than stations not on the interstate.


Science / Re: "climate porn" vs. "not alarmed enough"
« on: July 12, 2017, 06:27:18 PM »
I read the critiques first and the David Wallace-Wells article afterward. Most of us here on the ASIF can follow the scenarios closely enough to at least offer some kind of critique. That is we have followed these issues in detail here and we probably even know who of our members will fall on one side or the other on the "too alarmist or not " spectrum. 
 Talking about whether one indulged in psychedelics is I suppose also kinda taboo
but there are little bits of wisdom that can be garnered from hanging out with people willing to voluntarily unhinge themselves from reality. One of them is that it is a very scary experience for some people and once is definitely one time too many for some even though they thought it would be fun before they went there. Most people , I suppose, have enough good sense to realize knocking the stilts  
out from under yourself is something to fight very hard to avoid and that is because most people create constructs about what is real or not real and anything that might break that construct is to be avoided. They know this innately. To some degree looking into the depths of climate change is likewise an adventure in insanity. A collective insanity instead of an individual one but a situation that challenges reality or sanity itself.  
 I have a time or two broken the construct and forced myself to rebuild the broken pieces. As crazy as it sounds and as unlikely the chances such advice would ever be
followed society needs to break the construct of the security it provides, and rebuild itself in some other form. We will reach this place whether we like it or not because we already collectively  ate the red pill.
 So as an individual I try to envision what the future may look like and make attempts at living in that future world. Yes it is a scary place from a distance but living in that world and getting to know it by degree is my personal challenge. 
Society is still stuck in the "too afraid" too experiment mode. Society would much prefer to tweak things a bit and maintain BAU as long as possible. Some us us need to go look on the other side , maybe it's just our nature, but most people are gonna avoid ever looking at what is obviously to them "craziness"

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: July 11, 2017, 01:25:36 AM »
I don't think I need to comment on this new paper on pteropods in the Calif. Current, the language is very clear. The acidification we can expect over the next 30 years is baked in the cake at this point but there will be decades and decades of increasing acidification beyond the 30 years of acidification already in the pipe even if we do manage to begin to reduce our CO2 emissions .

xposure history determines pteropod vulnerability to ocean acidification along the US West Coast

N. Bednaršek1,2, R. A. Feely1, N. Tolimieri3, A. J. Hermann1,4, S. A. Siedlecki 4, G. G. Waldbusser 5, P. McElhany3, S. R. Alin1, T. Klinger6, B. Moore-Maley7 & H. O. Pörtner 8

The pteropod Limacina helicina frequently experiences seasonal exposure to corrosive conditions
(Ωar < 1) along the US West Coast and is recognized as one of the species most susceptible to ocean acidification (OA). Yet, little is known about their capacity to acclimatize to such conditions. We collected pteropods in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) that differed in the severity of exposure to Ωar conditions in the natural environment. Combining field observations, high-CO2 perturbation experiment results, and retrospective ocean transport simulations, we investigated biological responses based on histories of magnitude and duration of exposure to Ωar < 1. Our results suggest that both exposure magnitude and duration affect pteropod responses in the natural environment. However, observed declines in calcification performance and survival probability under high CO2 experimental conditions do not show acclimatization capacity or physiological tolerance related to history of exposure to corrosive conditions. Pteropods from the coastal CCE appear to be at or near the limit of their physiological capacity, and consequently, are already at extinction risk under projected acceleration of OA over the next 30 years. Our results demonstrate that Ωar exposure history largely determines pteropod response to experimental conditions and is essential to the interpretation of biological observations and experimental results.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 11, 2017, 01:12:00 AM »
ITP 97 is the only ice tethered buoy still working in the Beaufort this year. It is showing a lot of heat in the first ~ ten meters of surface water. It is still over deep water but if the current warm water holds we can expect a large hole  to form in the area west of McClure Sound.  The warning has gone on for several days already.

Look at the T /S contours

Policy and solutions / Re: City or countryside : which direction ?
« on: July 10, 2017, 01:31:56 AM »
Bob, I was too busy canning apricots to respond properly so Thank you for summing up what I was thinking. Also with the advent of affordable electric vehicles there is the option of getting into town without too much ff these days. Plenty of room to place solar panels etc. I also have met some very polite home schooled children that seem bright and I assume well educated.
 There may be some gap in values between the city and the countryside but so much is really  case by case and individual interests driving these issues. The question of energy use and the potential for efficiency is also values driven IMO at this point but when costs drop far enough renewables will supersede ff due to economic interests.
 UPS and Amazon delivery is a valid arguement but delivery/freight trucks meet me at the top of the driveway as they make their daily route between nearby towns. I can get overnight delivery anywhere in the state and never leave the property.   
 It would be advantageous to have something like the organized communities that Bob desribes around here but California is a different animal.

Policy and solutions / Re: City or countryside : which direction ?
« on: July 09, 2017, 05:14:47 PM »
With solar and battery storage improvements rural lifestyles can get by on less ff energy inputs.
Biodiesel can be another addition to compliment a self sufficient farm and with some acreage vegy biodiesel or piggie biodiesel can be locally produced , completely self contained or nearly so. Carbon farming may offer some potential to add some carbon back into the soil. So from an energy perspective rural has the potential to be less energy intense than cosmopolitan lifestyles. Travel becomes less and less of a burden when you don't need to go anywhere and farm animals and crops tend to keep you at home anyhow. The biggest issue is the expense of maintaining the farm and the infrastructure. Most farm families need outside incomes and ideally that can be an Internet job but marketing farm production requires trucks ,trailers and usually some large distances traveled. There aren't local markets for the most part because the money is somewhere else , in the cities. A large part of the processing centers for crops and animals has been centralized and so the producers are forced to travel farther to deliver to market. Even farmers markets tend to force travel into the cities and eat up time and energy. The only way to avoid these issues is to get very small but you better have a big pile of money stored up before you start because farming is an expensive enterprise without an income.
 Around here with property values in the millions very few people actually buy a farm to actually produce food. Horse hobby farms or rich vineyard operators are more the norm. I can only think of one young family in the last fifteen years who has made the transition successfully and they work ungodly hours . There are hundreds and hundreds of hobby farms ,none of which are productive.
 So I guess the question still remains how do we transition to feeding humans with less energy whilst at the same time reversing destructive farm practices propagated by corporate farming, fossil water pumping, pesticides, soil loss , carbon extraction from soils, and huge infrastructure costs incurred with distance to markets. The thing that amazes me is the optimizm that electric cars generates without ever a thought to how we plan on feeding ourselves. Someone else's problem , me thinks. Changing all this in thirty years seems nigh on impossible. Thirty years to zero ff emissions.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 06, 2017, 06:04:01 AM »
Barrow ice cam has updated. 56F and it is apparently time to go hunt seals or maybe bowheads. Lots of activity with boats and people launching boats on the beach.

Consequences / Re: Arctic Thermal Oases and agriculture?
« on: July 02, 2017, 06:25:31 AM »
Comradez, I don't know if you have seen this before but this farmer in Bethel Alaska has some beautiful produce. I was in Bethel once, not someplace you'd expect to see a vegetable farmer. The advantage is having a good local market for your production. Fresh vegetables are flown in this far north. The soil on the Meyers farm is obviously spectacular and I doubt there is much trouble with bugs , slugs or your usual completion. There are probably easier places to start farming than Ellesmere and still be a pioneer.

Bob, I in no way would suggest you are less than knowledgable about these issues. The gap between your knowledge and the general public is however very broad.
 I shudder at what conditions will be like if we push past 500 ppm considering how things are progressing here in the 400 + present.  Getting us all to accept the hardships that zero is going to result in requires some knowledge of the climate system and the carbon cycle. Leveling off our increases is the first step ,to be sure ,but I think we will find it gets very very difficult as we try to get by on 20 Gt per year , then 10 Gt per year and however implausibly zero. We are very much dependent upon the technological solutions you stress with electrics, batteries, and converting our transportation infrastructure. I worry very much about the total lack of imagination that is being put into how we transform our food infrastructure and dietary preferences. Those changes are where we will see how very difficult it is to get eight billion people fed and still get our emissions to zero.
 Flight, space shots , and a myriad off other luxuries will be memories of the past before we figure out how to feed so many people. I find very few people that can understand why I am trying to farm the way I do. People do understand self suffiency ,they don't however understand the urgency of our carbon predicament.

rboyd, If you look at the Keeling curve you can see that 10 Gt CO2 anthro emissions in 1960 was causing a rise in atmospheric CO2 . If we were to start to reduce CO2 at the same rate we have followed as we went from 10Gt in 1960 to the 40Gt and got back to 10Gt in ~ sixty years atmospheric CO2 would still be increasing.  We would be at atmospheric CO2 in excess of 520 ppm and approaching doubling. I think some of the CO2 that has gone into short term terrestrial and oceanic sinks would be coming back out and atmospheric levels would probably be higher than the 520 ppm that simple math might lead you to believe. We would be approaching CO2 doubling and climate sensitivity of
1.5-4.5 would determine the heating we would experiance. The point of all this is to emphasize that simply starting a decline in our emissions will not result in a cessation of atmospheric CO2 level increases.
 So getting back to zero and dealing with what comes out of short term sinks is necessary to stop atmospheric CO2 increases. I don't understand why this issue is so poorly covered in drawdown discussions. 

Consequences / Re: Ocean Temps
« on: June 27, 2017, 09:01:23 AM »
The water temperature at Red Dog dock, Kotzebue Sound has continued to rise. It hit 47.8F today which is higher than water temperatures at Nome. The water temperatures at Red Dog dock have risen by more than 17 degrees in less than two days. Air temperatures hit 60 degrees.

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: June 26, 2017, 08:35:15 PM »
I have an acre of garden in, all plow work done with a one bottom plow pulled behind  my piggie biodiesel  powered tractor. I am using my battery powered wheel hoe for cultivating and my water is overhead sprinklers , the pump is run on solar grid tied three phase.  I have twenty rows of flint corn , each row two hundred feet. Forty hulless seed squash plants, enough for two or three gallons of dried pepidas. I have in one row of Costata Romanesco Sqaush that I let get about two feet long then slice and sun dry. I have black eyed peas, black beans and limas for dry beans. All these crops are crops that can be dried and stored for winter.
 I can harvest summer squash , tomatoes, melons and several forage crops for greens as the winter crops mature. I have a big crop of sweet corn in but there is a big murder of crows pulling up the starts and eatting the seed . I don't use any herbicides or pesticides. I plant enough to suffer a certain amount of losses to the crows and cucumber beetles without much for worries.
 I have been allowing tomatillos, red root pigweed ( amaranthus ), and lambs quarter to grow around the edge of the garden where they get watered from the sprinklers. They don't get fertilizer or hand weeding and are what I consider forage crops. I don't plant them but they are all edibles.
 The apricots, Santa Rosa plums and mirabelles are all currently ripe and need to be canned. I have had a bad season with fire blight and my pears look bad but there will be bushels of pears in spite of the damn blight. I have been checking the oaks trees I forage in the fall and there appears to be a nice set of acorns this year. I am down to my last ten or fifteen pounds of acorns stored from last year. Still processing and making flour. I am going to get something north of a thousand pounds of acorns picked and dried this year, that's my target anyhow.
 This years acorn challenge will be much easier to get through with the garden providing dry goods and variety.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 26, 2017, 03:31:55 AM »
A jump of 8 degrees F in water temperature at Red Dog Dock today.

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: June 24, 2017, 01:22:50 AM »
Wili, Could you please source your 20% of population using 80% of resources ?
Just looking at numbers
7.5 billion people.    36 billion tons CO2
With a 80/20 split you get
1.5 billion people emitting  28.9 billion tons CO2
6.0 Billion people  emitting  7.1 billion tons  CO2

So six billion people are getting by with only 1.2 tons of CO2 each ?  Damn hard to believe.
At any rate we gluttons need some lessons in frugality.  If anyone on this site thinks they are getting by on 1.2 tons of CO2 per year I'd be very interested in your story. My friend OrganicSU is probably closer than anyone else who posts here . He is someone I admire for his commitment .
 If we are putting the health benefits of modern society into the balance we should also admit our diets and resulting obesity, death by car, and drug problems balance the scale that modern medicine provides.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 23, 2017, 12:44:19 AM »
We have water temperature readings again for Red Dog Dock, Kotzebue Sound. There is still some fast ice there and water temperature at 30.2F   Nome also has water temperatures at 43F.  As soon as the fast ice breaks loose at Red Dog Dock we will have real time temperatures for the Kotzebue Sound and see what is pushing through the Bering Strait.

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: June 18, 2017, 11:25:47 PM »
ASLR, Although the Humboldt Current that flows along the  coast of Chile is also an eastern boundary
current instrument readings in high upwelling regions of Central Chile record pCO2 peaking at slightly less than DIC =1,800. This hasn't resulted in surface water understaturation yet.
 pCO2 readings in upwelling regions off the Oregon Coast are exceeding DIC=2190 pH < 7.75 and omega( undersaturation ) < 1.0
The most recent Oregon Coast  readings of pH < 7.43 push omega quite a bit below aragonite saturation. Other Eastern boundary currents will catch up but we are seeing more extreme conditions here and can expect those conditions to further deteriorate.

rboyd, In the Kevin Anderson you tube video you posted in the conservative science thread Kevin twice uses a 800 GtC emissions limit. When we include CO2e and feedbacks I would venture to guess even the 800 GtC is to high. I don't understand why we should give the IPCC any credence when they continue to blow CCS smoke up our collective asses.
 1,000 GtC is a generous sprinkling of fairy dust by a civilization never intending to achieve an emissions total that might preserve the ecosystems we need to survive.
 You, Bob Wallace and I might still be here watching as we blow though the 800 gT limit. We probably won't be around to see the consequences .

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: June 10, 2017, 04:59:25 AM »
ASLR, We are seeing some of the lowest surface water pH readings here along the US West Coast.
We are seeing these readings in the same places in multiple years of upwelling seasons. Offshore winds and upwelling draw up low pH intermediate waters and deliver them onto the shelf. Riverine waters also dump additional nutrients that along with the nutrients produced in upwelling processes result in phytoplankton blooms that add to the low pH conditions when they die, sink and are remineralized by bacteria. This also results in low oxygen levels that co-occur with the extremely low pH events.
 A place called Fogarty Creek Oregon, close to Depoe Bay, has recorded the lowest readings at 7.43pH The long shore current takes the nutrient enriched waters from the Columbia River combines them with the upwelled intermediate water and sends them at the coast as it wraps around offshore reefs like the Stonewall bank.
 These conditions will continue to worsen because the intermediate waters feeding these upwelling areas are about 35 years old and the waters that will be delivered for the next 30 to 40 years are already in the pipeline and as atmospheric CO2 levels increase so too will the future waters delivered be more acidified than the waters currently upwelling that were formed 35 years ago.
 Mean DIC ( anthro ) in intermediate waters is ~ 37 umol per kg-1 that was in formation when atmospheric CO2 was ~ 350 ppm
 Intermediate waters currently in formation with current 400 ppm will arrive with DIC( anthro ) at ~ 56
 umol per kg-1. "When this water reaches the CCLME , the frequency of omega < 1.7 events at the CM site ( 40.34degrees north) in Northern California will rise to 61%, an 81% increase from current exposure and 14.5 fold increase over pre-industrial estimates." Omega <1.7 is the point where biological damage begins in sensitive shellfish.
 CCLME is the California curent large marine ecosystem. CM is Cape Mendocino
 The paper is open access

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 07, 2017, 02:26:11 AM »
Tigertown, I have been watching temperatures at Red Dog Dock north of Kotzebue. Temperatures there have been as high as 72 F ( yesterday at 4:30 PM ) with other days in a similar range for the last several days.

I wish the water temperature gauge was working at Red Dog this year. There are water temp readings from Nome . Nome water temperature hit 41.4 yesterday at 11:00 PM.

Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: June 04, 2017, 07:46:04 AM »
Abrupt, Maybe we liberals need to quit thinking we can somehow convert the conservatives and look at this as a battle the same way the conservatives see it. Hit'em where it hurts just like withdrawing from the Paris accords is intended to hurt, hurt us , hurt us damn liberals. So how do we strategically hurt the conservatives?  Hit'em in the corn, crush their soybean markets. Spread far and wide the pain just like they will continue to spread their agenda, an agenda of pain directed at us. And no , renewable energy won't break them in time. We have only two or three years not the twenty or thirty solar will take. You gotta hit GMO's like it matters, crush their markets. Bring down some economic pain on the people promoting Donnie and his policies. Not the Russia crap but bottom line war on the the people supporting his agenda. To some degree singling out his core base and crushing them. They have guns, they have rural votes but honestly they are economically vulnerable and with a little coordination they can be defeated fair and square, in the markets.
 We Americans are but 350 million of 7.6 billion people. The markets for corn, Mexico or Africa, or our Asian markets for soya are international and it is those international markets that can either allow republicans and their royal trump to drive down international agreements like Paris or on a larger scale ,international agreements in general. America first is a warning shot. But it is just like it is posed , America first and fight back if you can. A challenge to Mexico, a challenge to Africa, Pacific Islanders , Asia in general , Korea .  Do you want cheap commodities or .... Something like a future?

My post # 1000. What should be done will hurt me. I can take a little more pain for a future that benefits the greater good. This is a battle ,not a conversation. There is a lot of anger out there and we better know how we need to fight to win, or we won't.

" Each blade of grass has its spot on earth whence it draws its life, its strength; and so is man rooted to the land from which he draws his faith together with his life "
Joseph Conrad

When I google acorns, pigs, biodiesel this tread from Nevens forum pops up. I guess I am into esoteric pursuits.
 I have been making progress lately. My old tractor is running on piggie biodiesel now. I made a thirty gallon batch and after a couple days it cleared up nicely. Piggie bio does get cloudy in cold weather so I wait till the day has heated up before I try to start the tractor but the old Massey Ferguson is running just fine. I hooked up the bottom plow and did some heavy plowing then I switched over to the brush hog and did some weed abatement.
 I planted some flint corn that I grew a few years ago and the seed is still viable. I also planted some oil seed pumpkins. I am trying to focus on crops I can dry and store for this years " acorn challenge".
My wife and I will be trying to stretch out our farm raised and foraged diet to at least two months this year with solar panels supplying the farms electrical needs and piggie bio running the tractor for the gardening efforts to stash away extra calories and variety to make the zero carbon goals a bit easier.
 I still have dried acorns in the drying shed and I still have been making batches of acorn flour with them. There haven't been any issues with rancid acorns or rancid acorn flour and they have been stored for 8 months without refrigeration. There are several restaurant chefs using acorn flour here locally. So utilizing acorns in the American diet may be having a bit of a resurgence . I will be trying to harvest something closer to a ton of acorns this year and I will use piggie bio to run my truck to go collect them. I will again put a few pigs on an acorn diet and the fat they produce ,that I doesn't sell ,can go into making more bio to try and scale up this project.
 I have made an interesting observation that biodiesel made from pig fat isn't as caustic on rubber as the vegetable biodiesel I used to make from vegetable oil. I don't know why this is but I am going to do an experiment where I put a rubber gasket into a jar of vegetable bio and another jar of piggie bio and test how the two affect the rubber. One of the worst problems with vegetable biodiesel is it's propensity to dissolve rubber hoses and o-rings. I will report back with results. 

Walking the walk / Re: Sourcing solar panels and batteries
« on: May 28, 2017, 04:59:06 PM »
Etienne, Grid tied solar is a pretty good deal here in Calif.  The utility company buys back the energy at the rate they charge a the time of production. Since peak use and solar output match up fairly well ,summer,hot days, and air conditioners you can run solar with little or no bill. There is a standard grid charge of about $25 per month but the solar array puts out enough to cover that in energy sold back so your bill can be zero during summer. Winter bill is usually larger, less watts produced.

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: May 26, 2017, 08:02:50 PM »
Geoengineering impact of open ocean dissolution of olivine on atmospheric CO2 surface ocean pH and marine biology. Koehler et al 2013

"Ongoing global warming induced by anthropogenic emissions has opened the debate as to whether geoengineering is a 'quick fix' option. Here we analyse the intended and unintended effects of one specific geoengineering approach, which is enhanced weathering via the open ocean dissolution of the silicate-containing mineral olivine. This approach would not only reduce atmospheric CO2 and oppose surface ocean acidification, but would also impact on marine biology. If dissolved in the surface ocean, olivine sequesters 0.28 g carbon per g of olivine dissolved, similar to land-based enhanced weathering. Silicic acid input, a byproduct of the olivine dissolution, alters marine biology because silicate is in certain areas the limiting nutrient for diatoms. As a consequence, our model predicts a shift in phytoplankton species composition towards diatoms, altering the biological carbon pumps. Enhanced olivine dissolution, both on land and in the ocean, therefore needs to be considered as ocean fertilization. From dissolution kinetics we calculate that only olivine particles with a grain size of the order of 1 μm sink slowly enough to enable a nearly complete dissolution. The energy consumption for grinding to this small size might reduce the carbon sequestration efficiency by ~30%."

Tor, I don't think anyone has modeled the potential positive feedback of less glaciers- less alkalinity delivered to the ocean, therefor impaired carbon sinks. Even with a substantial population of autonomous solar powered rock crushers we might only make up for a part of the power to crush rock currently preformed by glaciers. The advantage of engineered autonomous robots would be they could be placed in ideal terrains to maximize cation production and transport.

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: May 26, 2017, 05:42:39 PM »
For the study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, scientists raised foraminifera -- single-celled organisms about the size of a grain of sand -- at the UC Davis Bodega Marine Laboratory under future, high CO2 conditions.

These tiny organisms, commonly called "forams," are ubiquitous in marine environments and play a key role in food webs and the ocean carbon cycle.

Stressed Under Future Conditions

After exposing them to a range of acidity levels, UC Davis scientists found that under high CO2, or more acidic, conditions, the foraminifera had trouble building their shells and making spines, an important feature of their shells.

They also showed signs of physiological stress, reducing their metabolism and slowing their respiration to undetectable levels.

This is the first study of its kind to show the combined impact of shell building, spine repair, and physiological stress in foraminifera under high CO2 conditions. The study suggests that stressed and impaired foraminifera could indicate a larger scale disruption of carbon cycling in the ocean.

Off Balance

As a marine calcifier, foraminifera use calcium carbonate to build their shells, a process that plays an integral part in balancing the carbon cycle.

Normally, healthy foraminifera calcify their shells and sink to the ocean floor after they die, taking the calcite with them. This moves alkalinity, which helps neutralize acidity, to the seafloor.

When foraminifera calcify less, their ability to neutralize acidity also lessens, making the deep ocean more acidic.

But what happens in the deep ocean doesn't stay in the deep ocean.

Impacts for Thousands of Years

"It's not out-of-sight, out-of-mind," said lead author Catherine Davis, a Ph.D. student at UC Davis during the study and currently a postdoctoral associate at the University of South Carolina. "That acidified water from the deep will rise again. If we do something that acidifies the deep ocean, that affects atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations on time scales of thousands of years."

Davis said the geologic record shows that such imbalances have occurred in the world's oceans before, but only during times of major change.

"This points to one of the longer time-scale effects of anthropogenic climate change that we don't understand yet," Davis said.

Upwelling Brings 'Future' to Surface

One way acidified water returns to the surface is through upwelling, when strong winds periodically push nutrient-rich water from the deep ocean up to the surface. Upwelling supports some of the planet's most productive fisheries and ecosystems. But additional anthropogenic, or human-caused, CO2 in the system is expected to impact fisheries and coastal ecosystems.

UC Davis' Bodega Marine Laboratory in Northern California is near one of the world's most intense coastal upwelling areas. At times, it experiences conditions most of the ocean isn't expected to experience for decades or hundreds of years.

"Seasonal upwelling means that we have an opportunity to study organisms in high CO2, acidic waters today -- a window into how the ocean may look more often in the future," said co-author Tessa Hill, an associate professor in earth and planetary sciences at UC Davis. "We might have expected that a species of foraminifera well-adapted to Northern California wouldn't respond negatively to high CO2 conditions, but that expectation was wrong. This study provides insight into how an important marine calcifier may respond to future conditions, and send ripple effects through food webs and carbon cycling."

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: May 26, 2017, 05:11:38 PM »
rboyd, I found this review of potential policy options re. adaptation and modification for OA effects worldwide.

It covers effects of riverine contributions of alkalinity both positively , in the Mississippi , and negatively in Maine. Although I am heavily involved with OA and this report even mentions a group I helped form and name C-CAN , California Current Acidification Network. Several other similar CAN groups have also since formed in other US regions. Rivers naturally contribute alkalinity to oceans in varying concentrations depending upon the mineral makeup of the landmass they flow through . Agriculture can even increase amounts of alkalinity delivered although the means of this contribution is soil loss and generally viewed as detrimental. I do not believe most OA research or policy has yet reached the point where there is a nexus between agriculture and large ocean processes but I believe what happens on land is far more important to ocean chemistry than where current common knowledge stands.
 As the earth warms so too will rainfall increase and as a consequence increase alkalinity inputs from land, at least in areas where river systems flow through appropriate mineral landscapes. There needs to be better mapping of those potential river systems that may offer some geoengineering potential as ocean pH modifiers. The earth will over the next hundred thousand years do all this naturally of course but we should put some effort into speeding up this natural process. I have a few ideas.
 Mineral supplements might be mined and added to agricultural lands that could increase alkalinity and at the same time increase soil health. Alkaline Green sand as and example .
 Mineral supplements could be added to animal feeds that accomplish the same thing, like feeding diatomaceous earth.
 Planting the upper reaches of certain steep watersheds with plants that can help break down mineral rocks or even bioengineered plants designed for that purpose might be another potential.
 Or for a sci-fi option invent small autonomous robots that are solar powered rock crushers and turn them loose in appropriate mountain terrains.
 The point of all this is to start thinking whole earth systems  and how we might promote the natural system that will eventually fix the CO2 problem we have created by speeding up those processes .
Start thinking about which river systems can help us, what farming techniques can help us, what plant species can help us and what sci-fi type options we might invent.
 So far we are only creating marine reserves and starting to enhance estuaries to help add resilience but we haven't gotten around to how we can modify terrestrial processes that can either help or hinder atmospheric CO2 drawdowns and oceanic pH outcomes. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: May 26, 2017, 05:12:01 AM »
rboyd, I agree with much of what you have contributed over the last few months but I would like to believe accelerated weathering of serpentines , olivines and carbonates like limestone might hold some potential to balance ocean acidification and help drawdown atmospheric CO2 if added to riverine systems. We have the ability to monitor pH balances and alkalinity so riverine flows didn't damage aquatic life and potentially we could even improve aquatic conditions in acidified river systems.
 I don't have peer reviewed work to back up these claims but as society continues it's fossil fuel frenzy I think we will attempt atmospheric sulfur and geoengineering schemes to mitigate the CO2 effects we all know are coming. Without some  corrallary attempts to modify increasing acidification in the oceans we will merely modify the heating effects of CO2 without changing the acidification that is it's evil twin.
 How this can be accomplished without undue negative effects on terrestrial systems or extra fossil fuel use is beyond my pay grade but I still would like to leave open the conversation of potential benefits of increased weathering schemes with whole system analysis of costs, both economic and environmental.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 22, 2017, 05:10:35 PM »
Barrow web cam is showing sea ice melt the last couple of days. Puddles in town and melt on the lake right side of picture frame.

Walking the walk / Re: Top climate-friendly actions
« on: May 22, 2017, 08:14:17 AM »
I am always caught up by regulations as a deterrent to resonable climate friendly choices. I got pigs because I hated composting slightly blemished fruits and vegetables. I figured feeding pigs was a more appropriate use for vegetables and I got my farm insurance policy cancelled as a consequence. So I had to choose between vegetables and pigs to get a new policy.
 My pigs are best for Charcuterie but health and safety regulations for Charcuterie result in restaurants either cheating or forgoing curing meats. The temperatures required by USDA isn't ideal for the best results either. I cure  at home but I can't sell what I produce. Salt is far more climate friendly than CFC's but freezers and cold rooms are de rigor .
 I am planting oak trees in a silvopasture plan because planting fruit trees results in fruit I can't sell. I have figured out how to make biodiesel but collecting restaurant grease requires permits and special equipment , or it did when I was using kitchen grease. I am now using lard as a feedstock and plan on using the bio produced in my farm equipment . I don't plan on looking too deeply into legalities.
 I have been processing acorns which also gets into legal issues other than for personal use. Restaurants pay about $50 for two pounds of acorn flour but I would need a commercial kitchen to make product for sale. Going through the legal channels for acorn production may be worth the trouble because there is only one commercial supplier in the U.S.
 So I live my life in two channels that are often in conflict. Those things I believe offer an alternative to energy demands of government regulations and those insured , taxed and inspected programs of a commercial operation. One will lead IMO to a planetary disaster and the other to the only future that people might live in harmony with our Planet.
 It is either or, and attempting both leads to a lot of inter conflict.

Walking the walk / Re: Top climate-friendly actions
« on: May 22, 2017, 12:46:48 AM »
Wili, I woundn't be here at all if it weren't for spellcheck but in spite of my challenges with English ( my one language ) I still surprise myself with some well written posts. I am not a teacher.
 I can't quite figure if you are trying to pick a fight but you should note that silvoculture involves raising animals and planting trees. This list is inclusive and not exclusive , you can't get to drawdown without including every step. I hope you realize we are struggling together here. If it makes you happier I have given up on beef . I would like to eat it , I like how it tastes ,but I think the carbon costs are too high.
 I think the important message in " Drawdown " is the acknowledgement that technological solutions will not be adequate to achieve a peak and decline in CO2. No silver bullets. Six of the ten solutions are not technological.
 I'm going to let the pooh - poohing pass although I think it is intended as a slight.

ps, you changed your post so I am going to go back and review article to try and find where you took offense.
Pig farmer - treeplanter

Walking the walk / Re: Top climate-friendly actions
« on: May 21, 2017, 09:44:43 PM »
I saw this review of a book called "Drawdown" by Paul Hawkin over at Scribbler.

It has a list of peer reviewed studies that are affordable and scaleable and ranks those solutions on how they contribute to drawdown , that point where CO2 begins to drop in the atmosphere.
1) Refridgerate Management
2) onshore wind turbines
3) reduced food waste
4) plant rich diet
5) tropical forests
6) educating girls
7) family planning
8) solar farms
9) silvopasture
10) rooftop solar

So yes reducing meat consumption is one of the top four right after reducing food waste but maybe
Terry should start a thread on how "Refridgerate management " and the increase in air-conditioners is a problem and the top climate friendly technological fix that can affordably change our current trajectory.

Hawkins is planning a new book on the same subject. A few suggestions from the peanut gallery would be a switch to low methane rice culture and diet supplements to reduce methane in cattle and
 I have personally adopted some of the top ten list and I think others on the list are things I can incorporate as a farmer. It is interesting to me that farmers , ranchers and foresters are all occupations that can help society adapt to our collective future. It is also painfully apparent that we are underrepresented in this forum and probably underrepresented in solutions dialogs that should more effectively target this segment of the worlds population.
 Here is a blog site that talks about silvoculture is a "boots on the ground" kind of way. The law is making climate solution impossible for farmers. So maybe some rethinking the food safety issues with a consideration for climate solutions should be a higher motivation for government planners?  It is so easy to put a boot on someone else's neck and feel good about it when priorities are confused . So little time to get this right.


Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: May 16, 2017, 02:58:30 PM »
Sigmetnow, Chlorpyrifos is damn nasty stuff. It has rendered many watersheds in California sterile for insect life. This of course limits the availability of food for fish or other creatures further up the food chain. Dursban, Lorsban( Chlorpyrifos) is regularly applied to Cole crops and used  on wine grapes and almonds. I had been waiting for the EPA to ban the crap but the Republicans have their own priorities. Again will not see issue covered in mainstream media and so consumers of vegetables have no idea they are consuming this stuff or take any responsibility for it's effects on the 
enviornment. "What you don't know won't hurt you"  idiom of content. Keep on shopping.

Click on Crops for an eye opening list

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 16, 2017, 02:32:10 PM »
Nicibiene, Thanks for the new pictures. My eye was drawn to the high concentration of CH4 over Svalbard in the 4/5/17  picture. That is where the heat is being pulled up from the Atlantic and there appears to be more CH4 this year. Would be nice to have water temperatures and CH4 somehow superimposed. Many of the other sources seem to be terrestrial (?) except that area you circled Southwest Greenland. I don't know what the source of that CH4 is.
 I don't know if you follow Apocalyse 4 real. He was a regular contributor here and over on the ASIB back  ~ three or four years ago. His blog has extra methane info in his archives. He still watches and he knows much more about methane issues than I.
 I am fascinated by carbon cycle processes . Riverine to atmosphere transfers of terrestrial (land sinks)
CO2 in the Amazon and Siberian riverine sources are two places to watch closely. How CO2 or methane production from these riverine sources are affected by heat , fires, permafrost melt and even drought are complications I don't think we have a handle on . Those portions of organic carbon that aren't converted via bacterial processes in the rivers will of course dump into the oceans. What part those terrestrial sources of organic matter are  responsible  for the methane in the Southwest Greenland area
I don't know but increased terrestrial meltwater may carry organics into the ocean very differently there compared to the Amazon?

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 15, 2017, 05:11:18 PM »
The upwelling of nutrients would increase biological production if surface waters were low in nitrogen , iron , phosphorus , etc.  Increased biological production would increase atmospheric CO2 drawdown
as long as the surface water pCO2 remained lower than atmospheric levels. This is called the biological carbon pump. Much of that carbon would be quickly recycled as higher trophic levels utilized the increased productivity. The bacteria reminerization of that portion of the organic production that settled would consume and release much of the carbon back into the water as CO2 or methane depending upon oxygen availability.
 I haven't read the whole paper but the increased biological production would be spread by currents and getting some measure of the fate of that carbon would require study of much larger areas than the rather localized site of the bubble column and upwelling .
 There are other processes that will also increase upwelling as the surface ice continues to decrease but the notion that this increased production will result in a vastly increased carbon sink is dubious IMO.
Does darkening of surface water really result in "less" heat absorption? Does upwelling and surface mixing potentially increase water column heating via insolation ?  Does the increased biological production contain higher or lower percentages of carbonate forming phytoplankton as the Arctic water continues to acidify? Other studies have shown decreases of calcium carbonate forming phytoplankton as acidity continues to increase. This will negatively affect ballasting and settlement of calcium carbonate into sediments. Calcium carbonate lasts much longer than labile organic material that settles to the bottom because like I said before bacteria can quickly remineralize organic material.
 nicibiene, Maybe those of us interested enough to read and learn and worry are all a bit alien. I do appreciate that there are fellows travelers that frequent this site and give me things to think about. I appreciate your company and I wish I had more friends that kept up with what is happening but mainstream news is completely devoid of information that might inform the masses and somehow they bury their heads when the subject does get a little too close to home. It's sad, it's lonely and I fear for how this all turns out.  It pains me that the way you describe German media, the selling of terror fears etc. mirrors so much the American experiance. It is very difficult to get away from Trump nausea, I know there is a famine in Africa but you'd never know about it cause it's Trump, Trump, terror and lately North Korea. The marketing of fear but the complete vacuum of information on how we are collectively precipitating a climate disaster. And more importantly what we as individuals might do to reduce our contributions .

Policy and solutions / Re: Boring, boring ol' Elon Musk...
« on: May 13, 2017, 07:18:26 PM »
Terry, I think the thousands of abandoned oil wells in LA are a valid concern. I know that here in the SB area there has been a long running effort to cap old leaking wells along the coast. Problem is they weren't ever well documented and mapped in the first place so they keep turning up even after the problem has been fixed. I think digging a tunnel at fifty feet anywhere in LA will surely require cutting off and resealing old abandoned wells. I don't know what you do with active wells. Just running a boring machine straight through them risks wreaking the boring machine or releasing methane at volume into your tunnel.
 The planned tunnel is below sea level and sea level rise by 2100 may result in flooding above the tunnel route. This will also be an issue for the 405.
 I do have a certain amount of faith these issues have already been in the planning process and Elon is
to be sure no fool.
 I am attaching an article with some oil well maps for LA.  These are the known ones, there are others.

Bob, I know everyone loves their big screens, instant communications, and laptops... Maybe some people love precision weponry but I'm not convinced this has resulted in less energy consumption.


Policy and solutions / Re: Boring, boring ol' Elon Musk...
« on: May 13, 2017, 05:35:02 PM »
SigM, I figured when you locate your tunnel at Westwood ( average household worth > 1 mill, average household income a little less than 200,000) with Brentwood , and Beverly Hills nearby it was obvious who your target demographic was. With LAX at the other end it becomes even more apparent Elon's tunnel is designed to service the lifestyles of the rich and famous with the associated energy consumptive habits included in that income demographic.
 I am not a believer in trickle down economics. I am also somehow not understanding the point of taking expensive cars to an airport parking garage when a very fast train could accomplish the same
purpose and might service better a more inclusive demographic? So maybe those airport shuttle buses will take up a fair share of the ridership on the tunnel if it is  actually  built but it is still just a way to make flying out of LA easier. I thought NOT flying was kinda like NOT eatting beef .
 Maybe I'm lost .
 Small is beautiful

Policy and solutions / Re: Boring, boring ol' Elon Musk...
« on: May 13, 2017, 06:16:15 AM »
I know the 405, I have been stuck in traffic there plenty of times in my life. I don't fly much anymore but I understand the anxiety of sitting dead stop in traffic wondering if I can make the last five miles before I miss my flight. That doesn't mean I can understand building a tube from Westwood to LAX for my new Tesla, Maserati , or Lamborghini so I don't have to deal with the inconvenience of living in LA. Living in LA should come with the problem of sharing the same small/ large area with millions of other people . Part of the reality , part of the turf, rich , poor , whatever color  or persuasion .
 So the tube for the über wealthy is for me offensive . For me the idea that everyone is inconvenienced , together , is way more appealing than the notion that enough money can get you to LAX so you can catch your privately chartered Lear jet to fly to your favorite island getaway , horse ridding lesson or " business meeting"  while avoiding the traffic the rest of us get stuck with.
 Screw Elon's vision for the -1%

Arctic Background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: May 08, 2017, 05:10:10 AM »
Vigilius, Andreas pointed out ITP95 was put out at Barneo this season. If you look at the bottom of the WHOI ITP95 page linked below it says there was also an IMB put out there at the same time.

If Jim knows where to find the IMB deployed at Barneo and might post a link it would be appreciated.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 07, 2017, 08:39:06 PM »
Andreas, I was wondering if you have seen this site? It shows IMB type data for some of the buoys on the poster you linked. It's new to me and an additional 4 or 5 real time data sets should be useful once I get used to using the new platform.

This plot for buoy S45 deployed 2016 shows ice cover at about .81 meters and air temps approaching zero.

Andreas, maybe ITP 83 is what you're looking for ?
Thanks for pointing out ITP 95, should be something to watch and it looks like it is working well.

Interesting that the temp/ salinity profile for ITP 83 doesn't show the shoaling of the temperatures and salinity like buoys that approach the Fram on the eastern side like ITP 74 or ITP 93. The Eastern side of the Fram has Atlantic water moving north but the western side is Arctic water exiting, I assume.

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