Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - Apocalypse4Real

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 7
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 23, 2017, 12:57:02 AM »
Shakhova and Semelitov published a new paper in Boogeosciences, May 5,  2017. Seems the methane in the ESAS is from microbial sources, not clathrate.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 23, 2017, 12:40:03 AM »
There is not much multi-year ice up there, and what there is is broken up with thinner lead ice in between, often less than a meter thick. Julienne Stroeve ran an ice thickness campaign to ground substantiate the Cryosat measurements along with Ice Bridge.

Here are three links:

Must interesting comments in the NSIDC field report:

NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve continued her Arctic field work into early April, moving from Cambridge Bay, Canada to Alert in Ellesmere Island. In Alert, Stroeve focused on sampling ice thickness and snow pack characteristics along a CryoSat-2 flight track within the Lincoln Sea. This is an area between northernmost Greenland and Ellesmere Island where thick, old ice remains. The scientists flew by Twin Otter each day, out onto the sea ice between latitudes 83°N and 87.1°N. The field campaign was also supported by an aircraft from the British Antarctic Survey carrying a Ka band radar, LiDAR, and a broadband radiometer. A NASA Operation IceBridge flight also flew over the same track.

The group noted that the ice was unusually broken up and reduced to rubble, with few large multi-year floes, forcing the pilots to land on refrozen leads that at times were only 70 centimeters (28 inches) thick. Pilots remarked that they had never seen the ice look like this.

Preliminary estimates suggest mean thicknesses ranging from 2 to 3.4 meters (6.6 to 11 feet), with the thickest ice found between an ice bridge in the Lincoln Sea and mobile pack ice to the north.

Modal thickness, a representation of thermodynamically-grown level ice, ranged between 1.8 and 2.9 meters (6 and 10 feet), including 0.25 to 0.4 meters (10 to 16 inches) of snow. Second- and first-year modal ice thicknesses ranged between 1.8 and 1.9 meters (6 and 6.2 feet), about 0.2 meters (8 inches) thinner than previous airborne measurements indicated.

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 21, 2017, 09:17:48 PM »
Global annual mean actual growth of CO2 at 3.44 ppm for 2016 vs 2015. Highest of any year. See

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 21, 2017, 09:15:41 PM »
Global monthly mean CO2 for February, 2017 at 405.75 ppm. Fastest and sortest time for a 5 ppm increase in NOAA ESRL record - at 22 months. On track for potential increase of 10 ppm in four years or less.


Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 21, 2017, 09:12:42 PM »
Global monthly mean CO2 for February, 2017 405.75 ppm up 2.74 ppm above February 2016, 12.75 ppm over Feb, 2012, and 22.43 ppm over Feb 2007. All trends still intact for increases, despite El Nino effect which is working out of the data.


I decided to read the US Administration Executive Order for Energy Independence and what it was changing. Here is a critique and response.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 28, 2017, 03:38:16 PM »
Fracturing is occurring in the Beaufort as well as the CAB. Note the attached. It may be that the entire pack is becoming more mobile due to thinner ice and wind effects.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 27, 2017, 03:14:36 PM »
Here is the Arctic view of the fracturing across the entire 80N area. No assurance of stability in the pack.

Note the fracturing across the top of Greenland and deeper into the Arctic Ocean. A lot of mobility that does not seem ready to slow any time soon.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: March 15, 2017, 02:06:25 PM »
The Central Arctic Basin has fractured from the sea ice edge to 90 N in the last week. You will need to download and zoom the images to see the full effects. No time to crop and post.

This ice is a mess and moving in troubling ways.

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: March 12, 2017, 09:52:47 PM »
December 2016, Global CO2 concentration another new monthly record 3.27 ppm higher than December, 2015.

Additionally, the 2016 Global CO2 annual mean is 3.47 ppm higher than the annual mean for 2015.

Also, December 2016 global CO2 a 22.52 ppm increase over December 2006, another new record.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 IJIS extent maximum prediction
« on: February 28, 2017, 03:22:26 AM »
The glaring difference in the record of continuous monthly lows.

That was summer 2012.

This is winter.....I wonder what summer will bring. Also a lot of fracturing is occurring in the Arctic Ocean. The pack is moving a fair amount.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: February 12, 2017, 04:28:05 PM »
Wipneus, I was looking at the Sentinel and Radar Sat individual imagery, through Polarview, but this makes the impact so incredible. Much appreciated. WOW and Yikes!

The power of wind and wave to demolish sea ice is very apparent. Almost all the way to the NP, the ice is rubble.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 11, 2017, 02:21:13 AM »

Great stuff! I review your graphs daily.


Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: January 03, 2017, 03:44:49 PM »
There is an association between El Nino occurrences and increases in yr/yr monthly CO2 emissions rates. The most recent El Nino demonstrates that relationship.

What's more troubling is when one observes a CO2 spike with no associated El Nino. The chart illustrates the relationship between ENSO 3.4 (El Nino La Nina and monthly NOAA/ESRL CO2 increases. There is more at:

Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: January 03, 2017, 03:39:32 PM »
Another aftermath of this El Nino was the boost in CO2 level increases over prior year. This association of El Nino and following CO2 yr/yr increases looks like the attached. What is even more interesting are when monthly CO2 increases occurred in the absence of El Nino.

There is more at:


Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: December 30, 2016, 08:38:21 PM »
Looks like the mild La Nina conditions are short lived...

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: December 30, 2016, 03:48:41 AM »
Global annual CO2 for 2016 on track for a yr/yr increase above 3.7 ppm, smashing through the annual growth rate of 3 ppm.


Science / Re: Mauna Loa CO2 2016 Thread
« on: December 30, 2016, 03:32:05 AM »
Thanks Crandles and Pmt,

Here are the full trending of the 1 5, and 10 year monthly change for October, 2016.

More is at:

Crandles, I decided to run the ENSO/El Nino change and CO2 increase by month to determine how much pattern exists, and I'll blog on that shortly.

Science / Re: NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: December 30, 2016, 03:14:02 AM »
NOAA/ESRL Global CO2 for October, 2016:

Hit a new monthly high of 402.31 ppm, which was 3.71 ppm higher than October, 2015. This yr/yr increase of 3.71 ppm is the highest for any month in the NOAA/ESRL record.

The ten year change from October 2006 to 2016 was 22.47 ppm, the highest of any ten year period monthly comparison.

Perhaps some of this rate of increase is El Nino related, but these may be less connected than previously.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 30, 2016, 02:40:34 AM »
What is there is not frozen solid. Lot's of fracturing. Latest METOP-1 AVHRR image attached for partial Canadian Arctic ice state as illustration.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 29, 2016, 11:38:25 PM »
Thought I'd write up the Dec 1-28 sea ice changes briefly and include the transcribed remarks from the initial AGU session from the 2015 Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition on the Lance.


Mats Granskog, a sea-ice researcher at the Norwegian Polar Institute in Tromsø and chief scientist of the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) project, presented at the AGU conference, there were...

“Lot’s of surprises. We saw a new Arctic where the ice is much thinner, only three to four feet thick and this ice functions much differently than it did five to ten years ago when the ice was much thicker.”

“We were also surprised that there was so much snow on the ice. Way more than we expected from earlier work."

“We observed the first northern most under sea ice phytoplankton bloom very early in the season when the ice was still snow covered. It was only this new Arctic ice, very mobile ice, that allowed this to happen."

"So we can say that this thinner and younger ice today works very differently than the ice we knew. It moves much faster. It breaks up more easily. It is way more vulnerable to storms and winds."

“The so called Arctic Amplification, the rapid warming of the Arctic, is in part caused by a reduction in the Arctic sea ice, seen in the last decade. And this has already impacted the patterns of weather and climate on the planet.”

"It is disturbing that the accelerated warming in the Arctic actually feeds more warming in the Arctic, and can even result in more drastic changes. And these drastic changes in the Arctic sea kind of calls into the question the knowledge that we have today about Arctic sea ice.”

Source: Youtube AGU

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: December 22, 2016, 07:07:49 PM »
Arctic "heat wave" storm in IR imagery. Source: Environment Canada. Black is the warmest temps. Looks like the storm is devouring the North Pole.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: November 20, 2016, 08:10:18 PM »

Your technical and software skills along with your knowledge of the Arctic adds considerably to our dialogue on the Forum. The graphics always create compelling arguments.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 18, 2016, 09:06:28 PM »

Thanks for the anomaly clarification and the tremendous contribution to tracking global ice change.

I haven't looked at the data, but it appears from the graph that we are already below the low global sea ice levels of September, which appears to be a month early than the naturally occurring global decline for Antarctic summer..


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 18, 2016, 02:41:18 PM »

What is the base period for your global sea ice extent and area anomaly graphs?

They are very impressive - and disturbing.

Mind if I share them in a course I teach?


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 09, 2016, 01:53:48 PM »

I appreciate the 090816 image, may I reuse in a course I am teaching next week - with appropriate attribution?


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: August 28, 2016, 08:39:38 PM »
The Great Arctic Cyclone is churning ice in areas with sea surface temperature anomalies that will accelerate melt and drop extent and area.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 19, 2016, 07:35:19 PM »
NASA Walt Meier: Early melt this year impacting Arctic Sea ice pack. Would love to know what the Arctic hole experienced.

Arctic sea ice / SEARCH - Arctic Presentation
« on: July 18, 2016, 10:59:28 PM »
An Arctic Alerts Media Roundtable was held in Washington DC in the last two weeks. Walt Meier and Jennifer Francis among the presenters. The link to the talking point slides for all presenters is:

One sobering take away: Ted Schuur, Vulnerable Permafrost thaw could result in a CO2 gain estimate of 75 ppm by 2100.

I just blogged on how Arctic Ocean 60-90N anomalies are driving up global ocean warming over .5C over the 1971-2000 base used by the NCDC/NCEI. See:

The attached graph shows global ocean anomalies (blue), NH anomalies (red) and 60-90N anomalies (green) from Jan 1950-May 2016.

The map shows the warming trends through time from 1880-2016 for the 1971-2000 base.

Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: July 18, 2016, 04:32:08 PM »
Decided to blog on Nino 3.4 SST's and what it looks like when we change the base by using the NCDC SST data. The SST data goes back to 1854. The difference is attached for 1981-2010 vs 1854-1883 SSTs and anomalies.

The blog link is:



Nicely done intro and summary. For some reason Twitter won't let me comment on the ASI page, so you might want to give the link to "Paddy" Also much of the imagery is captured from the Alaska Interagency website and their lightning detection network.


ASLR: Thanks for looking.

Neven: It is an unexpected honor to have something posted on the site.


Interesting photos ASLR, where were they taken - do you know?


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 14, 2016, 03:26:26 PM »
The high comes after a cold front moves through the Arctic Ocean dispersing the ice into the Alaskan coast, and accompanied with 20-30 mph winds. Here is the Barrow special weather statement. There is also a small craft advisory for most of the Arctic Ocean coastal areas. This will shred the last sea ice.




Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: July 14, 2016, 04:58:06 AM »
We just hit new all time high temps for the Alaskan Arctic coast this afternoon - 84F at Alpine and Deadhorse. A cold front is expected to shred the Arctic Ocean ice north of Barrow, AK.

See the blog post:

Hi Neven,

I'd welcome your reporting it...Will you kindly give "honorable mention"?

It is a major change and the details are on my blog.


I have just finished a long blog post on the massive increase in thunderstorm and lightning activity over the Arctic from 1915 to 2016. What has happened with activity during the last two years has no parallel in the lightning database.

We are seeing effects due to sea ice melt that are enabling storms to generate cloud to ground strikes over 600 miles into the ice pack... or what used to be ice....

Here is the link:

Science / Re: Carbon emissions, totals, trends, etc
« on: July 08, 2016, 10:36:26 PM »
Global CO2 was above 404 ppm for May 2016. The 5 year and 10 year comparison trends continue to accelerate despite the end of El Nino.


Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 08, 2016, 10:05:34 PM »
El Nino has increased Amazon basin drought. The fire season will be extreme. There are already more fires than 2015.


Permafrost / New IASI Methane Spike Feb 20 2016
« on: February 22, 2016, 03:09:50 PM »
METOP 1-B IASI smashed through the last spike to hit 3096 PPB on Feb 20 2016 am.

My site has the images - not time to add here.

Science / NOAA ESRL Global CO2 Increase Accelerating
« on: May 26, 2015, 11:45:57 PM »
Besides the NOAA ESRL Global CO2 average breaking through 400 ppm for the first time, the decadal global CO2 increase was above 21 ppm for a 10 year period for the first time in the record.

There is more at

Arctic sea ice / Sea Ice Prediction Workshop 2015
« on: January 17, 2015, 02:24:56 AM »
As part of the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative, there will be a Sea Ice Prediction Workshop at the University of Reading in April, 2015.

Here the link:

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: January 14, 2015, 02:00:41 PM »

Thanks for sharing your resources and talents on tracking ice. From your observations and the IR imagery, it seems the sea ice is more unstable and moving this year - despite the lack of Fram discharge. It seems that the subsurface ocean temps and winds is having an impact on ice formation and stability across the Arctic basin.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« on: January 13, 2015, 02:15:36 PM »
The Beaufort has been fractured since 112714, and has continued to refracture since.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 13, 2015, 02:00:08 PM »
The Beaufort was broken up by Nov 27 2014, and has gone through waves of fracturing since. Here is the 112714 view.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« on: January 13, 2015, 04:49:50 AM »
The METOP-1 AVHRR shows major collapse north of the Nares Strait, I do not recall seeing this previously in mid-January.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 13, 2015, 04:41:00 AM »
The attached is the Metop 1 AVHRR image of the Nares Strait sea ice collapse over the last few days. I do not recall seeing this in January in the past.


Consequences / Re: Arctic Summer Sea Ice transition
« on: November 03, 2014, 05:29:47 AM »
For what its worth, Peter Wadhams gave a presentation today, making his case for a an ice free month in 2020.

An excerpt follows:

"No models here," Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly on Sunday. "This is data."

Wadhams has access to data not only on the extent of ice covering the Arctic, but on the thickness of that ice. The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979.

This data shows ice volume "is accelerating downward," Wadhams said. "There doesn't seem to be anything to stop it from going down to zero.

"By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear. By summer, we mean September. ... (but) not many years after, the neighboring months would also become ice-free."


Permafrost / Re: This is not good.
« on: November 02, 2014, 03:09:32 PM »
Hi Grey-Wolf,

I am not questioning or debating Shakhova and Semiletov's findings, nor permafrost melt impacts on methane release from pockets or bacterial action. I have blogged on the findings of the SWERUSC-3 expedition and their findings this summer (see below). There is a reason to be concerned about  Laptev ESS release potential, but that is not related to what I am critiquing in my comments.

Nor am I questioning refreeze, or changes in OH over Siberia or the Arctic Ocean areas during fall and winter. That is also well documented in the research.

There is a difference between a 12 hour spike - which is weather related, and a large release from sea bed sources, which will be trackable in the IASI imagery from low altitude into the 600 mb boundary layer - and which will have an noticeable impact on global mean methane.


Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 7