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The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« Last post by AbruptSLR on Today at 07:22:06 PM »
My general impression is that after circa 2045 we will see two significantly different tracks for post-collapse society: (1) one dominated by a cyborg approach and (2) one dominated by a species being type of approach.

When I have more time, I will write more.

Best,
ASLR


Just a quick note to expand on my two points cited in the quote above:

(1) The road to the cyborg approach is fairly obvious, when AI can not only be used to manipulate elections but also: (a) the stock market as demonstrated by Robert Mercer's (Renaissance Technologies') Medallion Fund; (b) support cyber-warfare as demonstrated by all major and minor powers in the world; (c) governance as is currently being demonstrated by the alt-right's attack on mainstream media via fake news and alternate facts and (d) Groups like Anonymous can hack private entities like: Microsoft, Facebook, Google and OpenAI to develop coding better than that used by Cambridge Analytica; in order to advance their own agendas.

In this regards, see the linked articles with the first entitled: "What Does the Billionaire Family Backing Donald Trump Really Want?"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/no-one-knows-what-the-powerful-mercers-really-want/514529/


The second linked article is entitled: "Renaissance Partner Airs Battle With Mercer Over Trump

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/renaissance-partner-airs-battle-with-mercer-over-trump-wsj-says

Extract: "A Renaissance Technologies partner went public with his strong objections to top executive Robert Mercer’s support for President Donald Trump, telling the Wall Street Journal of a heated confrontation between the two men that may lead to his firing.

David Magerman has worked at the quantitative hedge fund for 20 years and helped design the firm’s trading systems. A registered Democrat, Magerman, 48, told the paper that Mercer’s “views show contempt for the social safety net that he doesn’t need, but many Americans do.”"

(2) The road to the species being approach could use a combination of mindfulness and electronic monitoring equipment to link the human mind to the holographic universe.  This might be achieved via the phosphorus pathway discussed in the following linked article is entitled: “The strange link between the human mind and quantum physics”.  In a few decades, who knows how much progress will be made into this matter.

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170215-the-strange-link-between-the-human-mind-and-quantum-physics

Extract: “The perennial puzzle of consciousness has even led some researchers to invoke quantum physics to explain it. That notion has always been met with skepticism, which is not surprising: it does not sound wise to explain one mystery with another. But such ideas are not obviously absurd, and neither are they arbitrary.

For one thing, the mind seemed, to the great discomfort of physicists, to force its way into early quantum theory. What's more, quantum computers are predicted to be capable of accomplishing things ordinary computers cannot, which reminds us of how our brains can achieve things that are still beyond artificial intelligence. "Quantum consciousness" is widely derided as mystical woo, but it just will not go away.

In a study published in 2015, physicist Matthew Fisher of the University of California at Santa Barbara argued that the brain might contain molecules capable of sustaining more robust quantum superpositions. Specifically, he thinks that the nuclei of phosphorus atoms may have this ability.

In 2016, Adrian Kent of the University of Cambridge in the UK, one of the most respected "quantum philosophers", speculated that consciousness might alter the behaviour of quantum systems in subtle but detectable ways.“
2
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic temperature layers and inversions
« Last post by josh-j on Today at 07:11:35 PM »
@crandles
I am still working toward understanding this better myself. I believe what is being said is that as the lower level heats and reverses the initial inversion, then a positive feedback is started and the heat is radiated downward after that point, instead of cooling into space.

My reading of the paper is that the inversion is a positive factor in surface warming amplification. Therefore to my mind, once the inversion is lost the amplification could reduce.

As the paper says:

"The ability of the Arctic wintertime clear-sky atmosphere to cool to space decreases with inversion strength."

Of course there are many more than this single factor in Arctic warming amplification and clearly the ongoing (?) weakening of the inversion is not saving the Arctic so far. But my non-expert reading is that at least for this one specific feedback, increased warming might actually reduce the feedback as the inversion strength weakens.

I'd be curious to know the thoughts of you intelligent people on this.  :)
3
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Last post by ghoti on Today at 07:07:01 PM »
Very slightly more definition visible in today's photo from Obuoy 14. Temperature is still about -35C. The buoy is now somewhere between the northern tip of Victoria Island and Prince of Wales Island.

Looks like this buoy plans to visit Wayne in Resolute this spring.
4
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Last post by AbruptSLR on Today at 07:04:49 PM »
Fed up with dysfunctional non-solutions? Heck, why copy decades of experience of serious nations and why acknowledge serious health market economics (like Hillary desperately tried to suggest since last century...)... nope, we alcohol boneheads vote Trump!

Martin,

Thanks for your responses.  In Reply #1650 I cite an article that discusses how Team Trump benefits from disorder/crisis, in order to create the need for a strongman.  During the Obama years the Tea Party in Congress worked to obstruct Obama's economic efforts in order to create the types of dysfunction that they are now benefiting from by working with Team Trump.  It is much easier to contribute to the problem and then blame the establishment for our mutual suffering than to work to implement measures like those taken in successful nations (like Sweden, Portugal, etc.).  We are now seeing the expansion of Vulture Capitalism via alt-right populism.

Best,
ASLR
5
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Last post by 5to10 on Today at 06:55:47 PM »
Martin G claimed that purely climate related developments might green the southern Sahara/Sahel, so Arch pointed out that politics were playing a large role in the desolation of that area. My articles are just supporting that point... (but maybe I've been misunderstanding the whole thread?)
Please note I was just playing "non-devil's advocate". My only claim is that my scenario is not worse "science" than Guy McPherson's stuff.

I'm well aware of bad things at Lake Chad, South Sudan, Darfur, etc.

According to  the map presented above by Pmt111500, Lake Chad and the Sahel might well benefit from ice-free Arctic.  For some more non-devil's advocacy google "John Liu Rwanda". Africa is learning fast that ecosystem restoration and non-destructive agriculture gives multiple beneficial returns within just a few years. Methinks the Great Green Wall of Africa is not that far away anymore. In the Marrakesh 2016 climate talks it dawned who will be the pioneers of serious climate engineering. It will not be the rocket scientists of industrial civilization:

Agri-Culture can be a serious negative feedback.

Yes but it's foolish to suggest that the entirely possible (if not probable) near term collapse of important, already existing agricultural systems as a result of inconsistent/more extreme weather (Look at calis recent rainfall..) would not heavily outweigh the minutia of effects of farming in locales you're suggesting. This does not seem a rational perspective. Not to mention the cascading effects that collapse would have.

There is really no reason to go beyond a few simple questions with this whole situation the world is facing: "Are there more positive warming feedbacks than negatives? Is the gap between their influence increasing? How fast?"

Without the negatives, we are fucked, very near term. No amount of farming in Sudanese minefields is going to have any measurable impact on what's already in motion. Sure, if everything else weren't falling apart at the same time, it might be great. But it seems way too little too late at this point.
6
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Last post by AbruptSLR on Today at 06:55:26 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Populist Masculinity and the Suspension of Order".  The article indicates that Trump's populist masculinity demands crisis/disorder so that it remains relevant.  Also, I note that Bannon has retained Nicholas Taleb to consult on how Team Trump can gain from disorder.

https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2017/02/populist-masculinity-and-the-suspension-of-order.html

Extract: "Populist masculinity can be seen as a pyramid scheme with Trump at the top, surrounded by his uber-rich and uber-right cronies. Below this highest level of the pyramid reside the celebrity class of the alt-right such as Milo Yiannopoulos and Mike Cernovich. These mid-tier populists resell Trumpian populism to the people lower down the pyramid in the hope of building sufficient cultural and financial capital to elevate themselves further up the pyramid (they certainly have little genuine interest in those further down). At the base of the pyramid are the much-famed “white working class” and their various economic and racial permutations who suffer certain masculine anxieties. Some of those anxieties, such as the loss of identity in a globalized labor market, are forgivable; others, such as the loss of white male privilege, are not.

What this pyramid suggests is that there is no such singular thing as “populist masculinity,” rather a spectrum of populist masculinities with different hopes, dreams and anxieties. In order to do justice to these diverse experiences, let alone construct compelling alternatives that will draw people away from Trump, it is necessary to think more creatively around the subject of how masculinity functions right now. There are multiple dynamics at play behind populist masculinity. One of these is the suspension of order.

In short, populist masculinity casts masculinity in a state of exception. By framing masculinity as under attack by liberal values, populist masculinity invokes exceptional powers to assert regressive forms of masculinity that in non-exceptional circumstances might appear unreasonable. We hear much about the so-called “crisis of masculinity.” The crucial pivot here is that masculinity is not in crisis, rather masculinity demands crisis. When crisis ensues, unexpected proposals may suddenly appear on the table: the suppression of women and atypical men, martial law, or any number of other unsavory things justified by alternative facts that would not seem credible in normal circumstances.

All such strategies require an intellectual mentor, and populist masculinity may find one in Nassim Nicholas Taleb, whose book Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder argues for the need to thrive in what might otherwise be described as the state of exception. Taleb may not know it, but Antifragile enjoys a certain cult status within populist masculinity. A quick search on the forum of populist masculinist Roosh V shows many references to the man and the concept. Given Taleb is known for his bully-boy tactics and his tendency on Twitter to gauge a man’s worth by how much he can deadlift, perhaps Taleb will function not just as intellectual mentor, but intellectual attack dog."
7
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« Last post by AbruptSLR on Today at 06:42:15 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Biomass subsidies ‘not fit for purpose’, says Chatham House".   It raises major doubts about the use of biomass to fight climate change.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/biomass-subsidies-not-fit-for-purpose-chatham-house

Extract: "Subsidies should end for many types of biomass, a new Chatham House report argues, because they are failing to help cut greenhouse gas emissions."
8
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Last post by Martin Gisser on Today at 06:31:41 PM »
Martin G claimed that purely climate related developments might green the southern Sahara/Sahel, so Arch pointed out that politics were playing a large role in the desolation of that area. My articles are just supporting that point... (but maybe I've been misunderstanding the whole thread?)
Please note I was just playing "non-devil's advocate". My only claim is that my scenario is not worse "science" than Guy McPherson's stuff.

I'm well aware of bad things at Lake Chad, South Sudan, Darfur, etc.

According to  the map presented above by Pmt111500, Lake Chad and the Sahel might well benefit from ice-free Arctic.  For some more non-devil's advocacy google "John Liu Rwanda". Africa is learning fast that ecosystem restoration and non-destructive agriculture gives multiple beneficial returns within just a few years. Methinks the Great Green Wall of Africa is not that far away anymore. In the Marrakesh 2016 climate talks it dawned who will be the pioneers of serious climate engineering. It will not be the rocket scientists of industrial civilization:

Agri-Culture can be a serious negative feedback.
9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« Last post by Tigertown on Today at 06:28:31 PM »
The idea is that it gets so cold in the Arctic when the sun is not up, that nothing else matters. There are starting to appear to be more and more reasons for that not to be true. One thing being the breakdown of the inversion layer.              http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1885.msg104326/topicseen.html#msg104326
Personally, I think there is enough ice now and that it will take long enough to melt this year so as to have one more screwed up freezing season. However, by next year, when the melt out comes so early in the year, the waters will simply absorb too much energy for there to be a freezing season.


There may be a better thread for this line of thought if it continues to be the focus. Better some of us move it than to burden Neven.
10
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« Last post by 5to10 on Today at 06:27:44 PM »

And any negatives... if there are any worth speaking of.

Clouds may help out during summer.  Greenland melt should help out year round at the cost of SLR.

I thought clouds were projected to be a net positive?

As for melt.. Won't full sun on the open ocean heavily outweigh any cooling caused by it? Seems like nowhere near enough of an influence?
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