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Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Last post by Bob Wallace on Today at 07:32:41 PM »
Look for Trump to start selling off US reserves as China's drop in purchasing weakens the price of oil.

Such a winner.  Are we tired of all the winning he's brought us so far?
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« Last post by Bob Wallace on Today at 07:30:04 PM »
A significant amount of the increase in renewables in Germany has resulted in increased electricity exports, rather than shutting down fossil fuel generation.

A probable attribution error in addition to a factual error.  Factually, German fossil fuel generation has dropped.  Germany has several coal plants lined up for closure.  And one brand new coal plant that has never been fired up and most likely never will be.

The increase in export is likely due to Germany's dropping wholesale cost of electricity.  Remember how the aluminum smelter in The Netherlands threatened to go into bankruptcy if it was not allowed to purchase less expensive electricity from Germany?

While the fossil fuel industry is claiming that renewables are causing Germany to dump electricity at a loss, Germany continues to show a healthy and increasing profit from its exports and imports of electricity.

Germany should be shutting down coal and lignite before nuclear.

That's a value judgement that is not shared by the German people.  They want to both lower carbon emissions and lower their exposure to nuclear disaster.

The true leaders right now seem to be China, given their seeming ability to grow very rapidly while not increasing their emissions.

Don't forget how dirty China became as it grew up until recently.  Now China's need for additional electricity is leveling off and they are able to close down some coal use.  From 2014 to 2015 China's electricity production rose only 0.3%.

(And don't forget that the economics for nuclear are not applicable in the West or any other region/country that does not have a source of very cheap labor.)
Arctic sea ice / Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Last post by seaicesailor on Today at 07:06:23 PM »
Intrusions of water from further East mixing with coast sediments?
Arctic sea ice / Re: Siberian Arctic coast
« Last post by Andreas T on Today at 06:44:56 PM »
Looking at your animation reminds me to look more carefully at wind directions, I don't think my claim of moisture forming those clouds coming from adjoining land stacks up looking more carefully. The way low cloud formation follows the coast does relate it to the lower temperatures of the sea surface (both ice covered and open ) compared to land.

Keeping an eye out for effects of rising water temperature, I spotted this floe which is stuck, probably on the shallow sea floor. A smaller part of it has been stuck since February, more ice has stuck to it since. It must have some pretty substantial ridge I guess.
Another noticeable feature in this image are the swirls of less clear water, sediment? algae?
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« Last post by Buddy on Today at 06:10:08 PM »
It is amazing just how "out of synch" and out of touch that Donnie and his band of idiots are on some things:

1) He has loaded his cabinet with fossil fuel guys....just as renewables are "taking off" around the world.  His buddies have some real work to do if they are going to try and "save" fossil fuels. NOT a "winnable game".

The two leading democratic countries in the world now......Germany and Britain.....have moved ahead QUICKLY with renewables....and it is spreading.   

2)   The US has made BIG STRIDES in pushing down the rate of "out of wedlock" births.  And just as all that work was done over the last 8 that any real FISCAL CONSERVATIVE LIKE ME WOULD is being unwound by Donnie.   By having fewer kids in single parent homes.....that reduces the amount that both the feds and the states payout in providing healthcare, food, and other things needed.

But what Donnie wants to do in his new to take away funding for things like Planned the same time decrease the safety net.  So his a DOUBLE WHAMMY.

3)  Betsy Devos will turn back education to the 1950's......and ENCOURAGE discrimination in private schools......while continuing to provide federal funding to them.  She is a REAL POS.

Donnie is going to cause a lot of people to get a lot of exercise over the next year or more.  Of course......MARCHING IS GOOD EXERCISE. ;)
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Last post by Andreas T on Today at 06:09:13 PM »
The map on the Obuoy monitor site oddly shows a track which ends short of the green position marker. If I read the position as 74.3N 103W out of the GPS display it fits the green marker position rather than the end of the red track which stops too far west. (I am using worldview to locate lat/ long position in relation to the surrounding islands.
This would put it about 70km from land in any direction. The direction the camera is pointing can be read from the picture vigilius posted: 11 UTC is 4 AM local time at at 105W, which give me a rough estimate of the camera direction as 240 deg clockwise from north (I don't know whether that is  azimuth or what) corrections welcome.
The images posted by Jim and vigilius also illustrate again that clear sky and sunshine brought lower temperature readings. Lower temperature does not necessarily equate to lower energy absorption, but with snow cover (still) intact, which shouldn't be surprising after a few hours of above zero temps, I don't expect much energy to go into the snow, ice and seawater below.
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« Last post by Sigmetnow on Today at 06:07:46 PM »
NOAA:  Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year, in large part due to ‘Weak or non-existent’ El Nino.
Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season.

Of related interest:
NOAA’s newest geostationary satellite will be positioned as GOES-East this fall
Moves to 75 degrees west over the equator once operational in November

Reminder:  When GOES-16 moves from 89.5 to 75 in Nov/Dec it will not transmit data.  GOES-R Series satellites do not both move and transmit.
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« Last post by FishOutofWater on Today at 05:51:00 PM »
The ECMWF ensemble model is indicating an absolutely disastrous warm subsidence high may become established over the north pole in early June. That's a planetary 5 wave pattern locked by the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio currents. The 5 wave pattern can become stationary.

There is nothing good in that forecast run for sea ice. That forecast is the opposite of June 2013.
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Last post by Buddy on Today at 05:43:22 PM »
US oil and gas stocks are hanging by their fingertips.  Again....only a matter of time before the "next leg down" in the oil market.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« Last post by Tor Bejnar on Today at 05:36:37 PM »
Cross post, for a bit of nostalgia (see Neven's message ending link to an 'old' ASIB post).
If Nares does not block up, what happens?

Hard for me to imagine the Nares blocking up with GFS now calling for the next 5 days of significant winds occurring there. The GFS has been trending that way and it's only gotten stronger.

I don't believe I've ever seen a traffic jam in Nares Strait once the arches broke. And I've looked for it, right after starting the ASIB (see here).
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