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The rest / Re: Russiagate
« Last post by pileus on June 27, 2017, 05:31:04 PM »
Readers here would do well to take the dezinformatsiya being posted by active members of the Putin Admiration society with a large grain of humanely and sustainably harvested sea salt.

Democratic enthusiasm and engagement, especially among the Evil Corporate Faction, is through the roof and bodes well for 2018 (assuming there are still open elections and we have not completely submitted to Russian control by then).  And all indications are that Trump will be a one term president, if not a less than one termer depending on the outcome of Special Counsel Mueller's work.

MSNBC Is Growing 3 Times Faster Than Fox News As Americans Wake Up And Take Their Country Back

As the American people get more engaged and look for factual news and information, they are increasingly turning to MSNBC as the Rachel Maddow led network is growing three times faster in total viewers than Fox News in primetime.

Here are the numbers via a statement from MSNBC to PoliticusUSA, “In weekday prime, MSNBC beat CNN in total viewers for the 5th straight quarter and ranked #2 among all cable networks. MSNBC prime finished the quarter with 2.1 million viewers, a record for MSNBC and besting CNN’s highest quarter ever -1.9 million viewers in 4Q08. This is MSNBC’s highest cable news universe share ever and the 1st time it delivered more than 2 million viewers. MSNBC has added more viewers in weekday prime than any other cable network in the past year – 1 million, nearly tripling the #2 network in growth – FOX News.”

This could be called a Trump Effect. As the President has cozied up to Fox News while his administration is mired in the Russia scandal, MSNBC has delivered news based coverage with a primetime lineup that has focused on the many scandals of the current White House. The MSNBC growth can also be viewed as part of the public backlash against the Trump administration. Trump’s victory energized a part of the country that had been disengaged since President Obama won reelection in 2012.
What we learned from the Virginia primary

The number of ballots cast stunned operatives on both sides: Democratic turnout skyrocketed, reaching nearly 170 percent more than the last time there was a contested primary in 2009.
One defining characteristic of the Trump era has been the consistently surprising energy from Democrats eager to oppose him. That’s true among activists and also in states that have held elections this year. The high Democratic turnout on Tuesday continued a trend that was highlighted last week in New Jersey — where the party primary attracted higher-than-expected turnout even though the race wasn’t competitive.

Tuesday’s vote attracted well over a half-million Democratic votes, blowing past the party’s last competitive primary in Virginia, when 320,000 Democratic voters showed up.
The graphic below shows Democratic Party performance vs expectations in the recent special elections.  Average overperformance is 8%, which suggests up to 80 Republican held seats may be in play for the 2018 midterms.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Last post by Neven on June 27, 2017, 05:23:21 PM »
Uni Hamburg is back! Most of the missing data has come in, hopefully the problems are solved up there.
Good news!
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« Last post by Lord M Vader on June 27, 2017, 05:22:43 PM »
The negative anomaly is entirely related to West Antarctica. Will be interesting to see if the sea ice will catch up with other years later this season.
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« Last post by Tigertown on June 27, 2017, 05:21:34 PM »
@Thomas Barlow
Re: tipping point

We saw what the open water late in the melt season last year caused to happen over the course of the freezing season, along with other factors, of course. If we get just a little more open water this year, for just a little more time, this will cause more winter troubles. If you think about it for a minute, water makes for a really good battery, simple but good. It stores heat energy very well. The end result; next melt season the ice will be  even less thick and durable, and melt even sooner. That is when battery really gets charged.  Summer 2018.
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Last post by oren on June 27, 2017, 05:19:36 PM »
In the mean time a side by side animated comparison of the CAA sea ice concentration 2016 and 2017.
Thanks Wipneus. 2016 seemed to be leading nicely in the main NW passage, until the last 48 hours turned it from what looked like undisturbed snow to very strong melt ponding (as also discussed in the buoy thread), now 2017 is in the lead.
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« Last post by Thomas Barlow on June 27, 2017, 05:15:47 PM »
The Jaxa extent data and a simple arithmetic projection (based on previous 10 year average melting) says the prospects for a new record low are diminishing rapidly, and 1 million km2 is beyond reason. Also the JAXA sea ice thickness image for June 26 one year ago looks more favourable for melting than this year's image.
However, Jaxa AMSR2 volume is dropping like a stone. I think I will put my brain and pen into pause mode until PIOMAS for June comes out next week.
Yes, volume.
At some point in the future, the Arctic Ocean will have a tipping point that is not seen in previous years (hopefully not this year, but it is a possibility).
I doubt it will be a slow year by year, decade by decade, slow incremental diminishment, until it is mostly blue, a long time from now.
I know everyone is aware of this, but just to re-iterate - The more open ocean (the Arctic Ocean), the more loss of albedo, the more warming waters, the more Atlantic intrusion, the more top to bottom mixing, the more cracks, the more volatility with winds (because of a more complex system is introduced). All of that impacting the lowest volume in that ocean, the most fragile we have ever seen it, then a tipping point could be reached. Whether it is this year or next year, or 3 years from now, it seems to me that's what people should think about. If there is a potential for a tipping point, then I would say there is 50-50 chance of that happening this year. If the tipping point is reached, then all bets are off. That means the glass is half empty or half full. We don't know.
So predicting what is going to happen, seems to me, needs to take into account the state of the Arctic Ocean only, and its potential for a tipping point. A critical point, at which collapse occurs quickly.
I think that is what Peter Wadhams is going on about, and I think that's what he means.
At some point, this year or in the next 2 years, that tipping point is reached, then all bets are off. Previous trajectories will no longer be valid predictors.
Are we close to that tipping point this year? If more blue ocean opens up than usual (in the Arctic Ocean) in the next month, that could be a bad sign.
I hope I am wrong.
(I also have the caveat, that even with loss of ice, there could be many, unforeseen mitigating effects from nature that could mean the loss of ice is very bad for us, but may not be as bad as people are saying - Eg. see my posts in the methane thread -->,12.300.html#firstPost )

Graph courtesy of Oren (and this includes the CAA, so if that was removed, the Arctic Ocean volume could be even worse right now.)
Nice image, indeed. The north branch calved quite a large piece (0.6 km in length) between 23-26 Jun 17 that stayed upright. With considerable difficulty, it could be moved from the 26th location to overlay on the glacier on the 23rd. (There is no particular significance to the north branch or this event  as the ice is thin and the glacier segment short and disconnected to the interior.)
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Last post by Sigmetnow on June 27, 2017, 05:07:29 PM »
The conference concludes.

U.S. Conference of Mayors Back 100% Renewable Energy, Vow to Fill Climate Leadership Void
Vote to support quick electrification of vehicles and urged Congress to back the Clean Power Plan and Paris climate agreement.
As the nation's mayors closed their annual meeting on Monday in Miami Beach, they sent a clear signal that cities are looking for action on climate change and are eager to fill a policy gap created by the Trump administration.

The United States Conference of Mayors, which includes both Republican and Democratic mayors from cities across the nation, adopted a series of resolutions that are far more assertive than federal climate policy, including a pledge supporting cities' adoption of 100 percent renewable energy by 2035.
On Monday, Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, used the conference's closing luncheon to announce a new initiative of his philanthropy that will provide $200 million in grants over the next three years to support city initiatives on major policy challenges, including climate change, education and gun control.

"We'll expand our work to empower more mayors to lead the fight against climate change so that America can meet the goals it set in Paris, no matter what happens in Washington," he told the conference.
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« Last post by Wipneus on June 27, 2017, 05:01:01 PM »
Slow day according to the NSIDC sea ice concentration, area even had a small uptick. Most of that happened in the CAB where previous days losses rebound now.

Regional Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Area calculated from NSIDC NASA Team concentration data
Date: 2017-06-26 12:00  Values in 1000 km^2

Extent (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4455.3   +0.6   +10.6    844.5   -9.7   -75.1    651.9  -18.0   -36.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   658.7   +9.6  -159.0    169.0  +10.3  -221.3    558.1  +22.5   -33.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   580.7  -21.3   -97.9     10.9   -3.1    +5.3    545.6   -3.7  -331.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   728.7   +2.5   +18.7    347.8   +0.7  -122.0    284.2   -9.8  -180.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
    14.0   -1.7   -28.3     51.1   -7.4   -21.6    233.3  +16.6  +106.6
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
    12.5   +0.7    +9.0   9913.0  -27.8 -1263.3

Area (value, one day change, anomaly):
   Central Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
  4140.0  +76.6   +28.4    609.7  -33.8  -130.8    416.5  -21.6   -94.6
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
   407.8  +15.4  -186.1     91.4   +2.7  -125.5    314.4   -4.0   -22.7
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
   366.6  -10.5   -43.6      2.7   -1.1    +1.1    261.0   -5.1  -265.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
   467.9  -33.4   -51.6    204.8  +27.4  -151.2    189.1   +7.7  -174.8
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk                   Lakes
     3.0   -0.4    -8.7     17.0   +1.7    -9.9    115.0   +7.0   +51.2
          Other regions       Total (ex. lakes)
     4.1   +0.3    +2.9   7496.1  +21.9 -1232.6

Delta map attached: red/blue means the concentration went below/over the 15% cut-off. Reddish/bluish means the concentration decreased/increased by more than 7%
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Last post by Wipneus on June 27, 2017, 04:57:33 PM »
Uni Hamburg is back! Most of the missing data has come in, hopefully the problems are solved up there.
Regarding the problems I faced with Bremen's data, I wait with publishing daily reports until I am satisfied that the UH data is indeed behaving much better.

In the mean time a side by side animated comparison of the CAA sea ice concentration 2016 and 2017.

Click to animate.
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