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Author Topic: Coal  (Read 158399 times)

Bob Wallace

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Re: Coal
« Reply #800 on: July 13, 2017, 07:51:20 PM »
China and India are installing a lot of renewables.  Poland is beginning to.  Progress may be bumpy over the beginning years but as wind, solar and storage costs continue to fall the move away from fossil fuel should accelerate.


numerobis

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Re: Coal
« Reply #801 on: July 13, 2017, 08:15:56 PM »
This think-tank chaired by the PM thinks the Indian government will fail far short in its stated goal for a large fraction of renewables by 2030. Odd.

rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #802 on: July 13, 2017, 08:41:26 PM »
This think-tank chaired by the PM thinks the Indian government will fail far short in its stated goal for a large fraction of renewables by 2030. Odd.

This is highly representative of the multiple-personality syndrome of most governments. There still seems to be a lack of integration between climate planning, energy planning and business planning within governments. Targets seen as "hard" in one area are seen as "soft" in another of the same government. The Canadian one is the same, where its policies do not match its climate commitments.

rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #803 on: July 14, 2017, 09:04:01 PM »
EIA estimates that US coal production will increase by 8% in 2017

"EIA estimates that coal production declined by 169 million short tons (MMst) (19%) in 2016 to 728 MMst, the lowest level of coal production since 1978. In 2017, growth in coal-fired electricity generation and exports is expected to lead to an increase of 57 MMst (8%) in total U.S. coal production. Production in the Western region is forecast to increase by 26 MMst. Increases in production from the Appalachian region and the Interior region are expected to be 16 MMst and 15 MMst, respectively. In 2018, total coal production is expected to remain relatively unchanged, with declines in Appalachian region production offset by increases in Interior region and Western region production."

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.cfm

Sigmetnow

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Re: Coal
« Reply #804 on: July 15, 2017, 01:30:29 AM »
The history of solar jobs is not very long, compared to coal mining, but OK. ;)

For First Time in History, Solar Jobs Outnumber Coal Jobs in Virginia
http://wvtf.org/post/first-time-history-solar-jobs-outnumber-coal-jobs-virginia
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #805 on: July 15, 2017, 03:37:35 AM »
Sigm


Any idea whether the new jobs pay as well as coal mining?


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Coal
« Reply #806 on: July 15, 2017, 07:13:23 PM »
Sigm


Any idea whether the new jobs pay as well as coal mining?


Terry

The Harvard Business Review looked at that.
Our results show that there is a wide variety of employment opportunities in the solar industry, and that the annual pay is attractive at all levels of education, with even the lowest skilled jobs paying a living wage (e.g., janitors in the coal industry could increase their salaries by 7% by becoming low-skilled mechanical assemblers in the solar industry). In general, we found that after retraining, technical workers would make more in the solar industry than previously in coal. However, managers and particularly executives would make less.
...
The results of the study show that a relatively minor investment ($180 million to $1.8 billion, based on best and worst case scenarios) in retraining would allow the vast majority of U.S. coal workers to switch to solar-related positions. Of course, training times depend on type of job and prior experience.
...
What If All U.S. Coal Workers Were Retrained to Work in Solar?
https://hbr.org/2016/08/what-if-all-u-s-coal-workers-were-retrained-to-work-in-solar
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wehappyfew

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Re: Coal
« Reply #807 on: July 15, 2017, 07:39:49 PM »
Managers and executives make LESS?  Completely non-feasible. Sorry, we will keep supporting the coal industry. Must keep the lobbyist money and kickbacks flowing to the very important legislators and congressmen. Executives who aren't making obscene profits can't maintain the bribe contribution levels.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Coal
« Reply #808 on: July 16, 2017, 03:15:52 PM »
"...Duke Energy Corp. has sought permission to have North Carolina consumers pay part of its costs of cleaning up the [coal] waste, which are estimated to total $5.1 billion in North and South Carolina alone."

Coal ash neighbors: Don’t raise rates as pollution lingers
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — The nation’s largest electric company wants regulators in North Carolina to force consumers to pay nearly $200 million a year to clean up the toxic byproducts of burning coal to generate power. That doesn’t sit well with neighbors of the power plants who have been living on bottled water since toxic chemicals appeared in some of their wells.
...
https://apnews.com/3e6d28558a914112b1208b005eac14e6/Coal-ash-neighbors:-Don%27t-raise-rates-as-pollution-lingers
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wili

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Re: Coal
« Reply #809 on: July 16, 2017, 10:00:20 PM »
This just out from Carbon Brief: https://www.carbonbrief.org/seven-charts-show-why-the-iea-thinks-coal-investment-has-already-peaked

"Seven charts show why the IEA thinks coal investment has already peaked"
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #810 on: July 17, 2017, 04:50:10 AM »
The biggest question from the Carbon Brief article:

"Despite the coal plan slowdown, earlier research has suggested that India’s existing coal pipeline could single-handedly jeopardise the 1.5C goal of the Paris Agreement. As with China, the question remains how many of the planned plants will be built and how many hours they will run."

Bob Wallace

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Re: Coal
« Reply #811 on: July 17, 2017, 06:38:39 AM »
India plans on being off coal by 2027.  They recently canceled construction of a very large coal plant.

Will they make it by 2027?  Hard to say, I'd guess they'll miss the target a bit.  But if India gets off coal by 2035 we should be in great shape (when it comes to coal).  Here's who burned coal in 2016 (numbers in MTOE, million tonnes oil equivalent).


The Big Boys
China   1888
India   412
US   358
Japan   120

Over 50 MTOE
Russian Federation   87
South Africa   85
South Korea   82
Germany   75
Indonesia   63

Over 20 MTOE
Poland   49
Australia   44
Taiwan   39
Turkey   38
Kazakhstan   36
Ukraine   32
Other Europe & Eurasia   23
Vietnam   21
Other Asia Pacific   21

Over 10 MTOE
Malaysia   20
Canada   19
Thailand   18
Czech Republic   17
Brazil   17
Philippines   14
United Kingdom   11
Italy   11

Dabblers
Spain   10
Netherlands   10
Other Africa   10
Mexico   10
France   8
Chile   8
China Hong Kong SAR   7
Bulgaria   6
Israel   6
Romania   5
Pakistan   5
Greece   5
Colombia   5
Finland   4
Other S. & Cent. America   3
Austria   3
Slovakia   3
Belgium   3
Portugal   3
Hungary   2
Ireland   2
Sweden   2
Denmark   2
Iran   2
United Arab Emirates   1
New Zealand   1
Argentina   1
Uzbekistan   1
Peru   1
Belarus   1
Norway   1
Bangladesh   1

rboyd

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Re: Coal
« Reply #812 on: July 17, 2017, 10:30:58 PM »
India plans on being off coal by 2027. 


No new coal capacity added after 2027, they will not be off coal for a long time after that.

"India does not plan on expanding its coal-fired capacity during 2017-22, according to the Draft National Electricity Plan proposed in December 2016 by the Central Electricity Authority"

Extremely deceiving headlines, endemic in many journalistic work in this area unfortunately.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/if-india-meets-renewables-target-no-more-coal-power-needed-after-2027/articleshow/58431773.cms

Bob Wallace

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Re: Coal
« Reply #813 on: July 17, 2017, 10:47:00 PM »
India needs no extra coal power stations until at least 2027, according to the government’s latest draft National Electricity Plan.5

The plan, released by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) for public consultation, makes no room for further generation capacity beyond the 50GW coal fleet that is under construction.

The plan covers two five-year periods beginning in 2017 and 2022. The first period allows for the completion of those plants already being built. But after that, the CEA is planning for zero new thermal power generation before 2027.

This would put India on course to far exceed its pledges to the Paris agreement, said Siddharth Singh, associate fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) in New Delhi.

Narendra Modi’s government has promised to get 40% of  its electricity from non-fossil sources (renewable and nuclear) by 2030, with finance and technology sharing from wealthier countries.

The CEA proposal would mean the non-fossil share would increase to 53% as early as 2027, up from 31% today, without relying on international support.

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/12/16/india-to-halt-building-new-coal-plants-in-2022/


In India, where solar photovoltaic prices dropped to a historic low this week, according to a separate analysis by another nonprofit group, Carbon Tracker. Renewable energy is growing so quickly that the nation is on track to be eight years early in reaching its 2030 goal: for clean energy to supply 40 percent of the nation's installed electricity. If the nation's new draft electricity plan is implemented, India will reach 57 percent renewable energy by 2027, the analysts said. India canceleed four coal-fired "ultra-mega" power projects last year, in the face of cheaper renewable energy and slowing of demand growth.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15052017/china-india-paris-climate-goals-emissions-coal-renewable-energy



numerobis

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Re: Coal
« Reply #814 on: July 17, 2017, 11:06:51 PM »
No new coal capacity after 2027 means Indian coal use will peak shortly, then stay at level of the second-most in the world, and perhaps decline at a snail's pace as old plants shut down and are replaced by new, more efficient plants.

They might exceed that goal and start shutting down plants early -- would be nice. A large fraction of their capacity is new plants they've recently built, so those will have a strong incentive to be on for a while, if only to repay the lenders.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Coal
« Reply #815 on: July 18, 2017, 12:14:50 AM »
No new coal capacity after 2027 means Indian coal use will peak shortly, then stay at level of the second-most in the world, and perhaps decline at a snail's pace as old plants shut down and are replaced by new, more efficient plants.

They might exceed that goal and start shutting down plants early -- would be nice. A large fraction of their capacity is new plants they've recently built, so those will have a strong incentive to be on for a while, if only to repay the lenders.

The plan covers two five-year periods beginning in 2017 and 2022. The first period allows for the completion of those plants already being built. But after that, the CEA is planning for zero new thermal power generation before 2027.

Plants now under construction will be completed by 2022.  That's peak coal consumption.  Or not.  The new plants are much more efficient and will allow the closure of inefficient plants.  India's coal use could peak before 2022 as efficient plants replace inefficient plants.

"(S)tay at level of the second-most in the world, and perhaps decline at a snail's pace" assumes that India slows their renewable programs after hitting peak coal.  One can't predict whether or not that will happen.  With the continued drop in the price of solar it's not clear why their solar program would slow.  And India has yet, as far as I can tell, started looking at wind resources above 100 meters.

All the wind maps and information I can find regarding India speaks of 80 meter hub heights.  As we've seen in the US at 140 meter hub heights there are vastly more wind resources with large areas where CFs of 60% should be achievable.   It's going to be interesting to see if India discovers a lot of onshore wind that they hadn't realized was waiting for the harvest.

TerryM

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Re: Coal
« Reply #816 on: July 18, 2017, 03:09:31 AM »
With no real understanding of the situation, my thought is that any region with a binary climate, ie. one with monsoonal weather and an annual dry season might experience problems with any of the renewable electric generating sources. Hydro fluctuates between too much water and not enough, solar has long periods when it's shaded by thunder heads, followed by months of clear skies, and monthly wind patterns presumably would jump all over the place.
A very different situation than most of the rest of the world where temperature fluctuations make up the primary annual change.
Hydro might be the least effected, but the very advanced Indus Valley Civilization is generally considered to have fallen victim to the flooding, drying up, and constant relocation of their namesake river, rather than raids from outside.


Terry

numerobis

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Re: Coal
« Reply #817 on: July 18, 2017, 03:30:46 AM »
Bob: India can grow its share of renewables quite substantially for a long time without reducing its coal use. It's way far back in electricity per capita, and everyone is going to want air conditioning -- particularly as the climate warms up. Also likely they'll want a lot of desalination.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Coal
« Reply #818 on: July 18, 2017, 08:09:46 AM »
Bob: India can grow its share of renewables quite substantially for a long time without reducing its coal use. It's way far back in electricity per capita, and everyone is going to want air conditioning -- particularly as the climate warms up. Also likely they'll want a lot of desalination.

Then India is going to have to step up its RE programs.  Moving off coal will save them money and clean their air.