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pileus

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1100 on: June 02, 2017, 09:34:08 AM »

Are you feeling ok?
This is not negotiable. Of course I am. How are you? Since you hide your location, the regular pleasantries and automatic responses to inquiries of personal info should be enough.

I am doing well, all things considered.  I am currently based in the Pacific Northwest of the US, but tend to wander in order to stay one step ahead of the chekists, as they are legion.  The resistance is strong here, but the relative isolation of this region lends to limited perspective of the broader American experience.

Chevy Volts are actually not priced to consumer scale yet.  People would be better served to do with what they have, utilize public transit, or wait for the coming revolution of driverless saturation.

Forest Dweller

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1101 on: June 02, 2017, 10:34:33 AM »
So Donald is pulling out today...and the Europeans or Chinese are not pleased i.e.
Makes me wonder though if others will start renegotiating and doing similar things.

be cause

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1102 on: June 02, 2017, 11:08:25 AM »
   Truely the Dumb Bald Rump of climate change denial ...
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1103 on: June 02, 2017, 12:10:57 PM »
Commentary by Dana Nuccitelli, environmental scientist, at Skeptical Science:

Donald Trump just cemented his legacy as America’s worst-ever president
Quote
...
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris treaty is a mostly symbolic act. America’s pledges to cut its carbon pollution were non-binding, and his administration’s policies to date had already made it impossible for America to meet its initial Paris climate commitment for 2025. The next American president in 2020 can re-enter the Paris treaty and push for policies to make up some of the ground we lost during Trump’s reign.

However, withdrawing from the Paris treaty is an important symbolic move – a middle finger to the rest of the world, and to future generations. America is by far the largest historical contributor to climate change. Ironically, on the heels of Trump’s claim that most NATO members aren’t paying their fair share to the organization, America has announced that we won’t do our fair share to curb the climate change threats that we are the most responsible for.

The Rotting Republican Party

And the GOP has become the Party of Trump. His decision was reinforced by a letter from 22 Republican senators urging withdrawal from the Paris climate treaty. Those senators have coincidentally received over $10m in donations from the fossil fuel industry over the past five years.

Their reasoning was dubious at best, arguing that environmental attorneys will cite the international agreement in their efforts to prevent the Trump administration from eliminating President Obama’s Clean Power Plan. By law, the US government is required to regulate carbon pollution under the Clean Air Act, because it poses a threat to public welfare. The Republican Senators wrote:

Environmentalists will argue that these [Clean Air Act] Section 115 requirements are, in fact, met more easily by the Paris Agreement because it includes enhanced transparency requirements in Article 13, which establishes a process for nations to submit plans to reduce emissions to one another and then to comment on the plans of one another.

As National Resource Defense Council climate and clean air program senior attorney David Doniger explained to me, this argument is nonsense:

They are making things up. EPA did not rely on Paris to justify the Clean Power Plan, and none of the parties defending the Plan has cited Paris as a legal basis. On Clean Air Act Section 115, no one I know has made, or even thought of, this argument.

It’s difficult to discern the Republican Senators’ motivations behind this letter. Even big oil and coal and many of America’s largest companies supported America staying in the Paris agreement. Industries don’t like the uncertainty involved in lurching in and out of international treaties, and experts are concerned about the effect on America’s international influence from tearing up this critically important agreement that we helped broker less than two years ago, that was signed by nearly every world country.
...
https://skepticalscience.com/trump-legacy-americas-worst-ever-president.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1104 on: June 02, 2017, 01:16:25 PM »
Somewhat smugly I am pleased to say that since Trump shot the USA in the foot all seems to be happening as predicted.

Even I have been surprised at the speed and vigour of reactions in the world and in the USA. It was especially good to see the tweet from the Mayor of Pittsburgh - "We are with Paris". It was also extremely depressing to see our Prime Minister Teresa May failing to condemn Trump's decision.
Other countries such as China, India and the EU countries seem to already be committing themselves to accelerate their development of the renewable energy and electrical vehicle industries. An opportunity lost by one is an opportunity gained by another. (The EU and China will announce today a commitment to jointly advance the climate agenda. This will not include the UK - brexit is brexit. The UK will be at best a bit player in the development of the fastest growing and wit 20 years the largest industries on the planet. )

In the USA it has already galvanised many States, Cities and businesses to redouble their commitment to maximise the economic opportunities that States led by denialists are turning their backs on.

Those States that seek to defy the policies of Trump have an ally from an unexpected place - The Freedom Caucus and Libertarian movements commitment to State's' Rights. What is sauce for the goose (West Virginia - let there be pollution) is sauce for the gander (California - let there be a clean environment) .no

To have the USA's Federal Government in the Paris Accord but permanently trying to water it down and reduce its effectiveness would have been the worst option. Trump with no seat at the table when the world discusses the future of the planet will be good for his soul. Chastisement through rejection, cold shoulder, dismissal, indifference is an effective strategy.

My only real regret is that the UK Government has thrown away the opportunity to embrace the future. Instead we are going to get fracking. In 10 to 20 years you will not be able to give away LNG,  the world will be awash with the stuff.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1105 on: June 02, 2017, 01:40:50 PM »
"...he was protecting his voters"
Because who would come to his rallies if he stayed in the Paris Agreement?  ::)

Inside Trump’s climate decision: After fiery debate, he ‘stayed where he’s always been’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-climate-decision-after-fiery-debate-he-stayed-where-hes-always-been/2017/06/01/e4acb27e-46db-11e7-bcde-624ad94170ab_story.html
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magnamentis

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1106 on: June 02, 2017, 04:13:25 PM »
Stumbled, Terry.

I can't think of a single country that has had successful government after successful government throughout their entire history.

you forget switzerland, no disruptions for over hundred years ;)

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1107 on: June 02, 2017, 05:34:25 PM »
Stumbled, Terry.

I can't think of a single country that has had successful government after successful government throughout their entire history.

you forget switzerland, no disruptions for over hundred years ;)

Is Switzerland a country?  I thought it was a dairy....   :P

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1108 on: June 02, 2017, 06:31:46 PM »
Stumbled, Terry.

I can't think of a single country that has had successful government after successful government throughout their entire history.
STRAWMAN ALERT

Where and when did I ever speak of governments being successful through their entire history??


Terry


If you believe that the US is fairly represented by Trump's administration, or that the Harper administration acted in accord with the wishes of most Canadians, your comment is valid.


A Princeton study showed the wealthy had their wants and needs met while the majority's wishes were totally ignored by government & showed the US to be a Oligarchy. My only contention is that the Canadian government is only marginally better.


The study was completed before Trump's Triumph at the polls, but I'm sure Trump isn't more responsive to the desires of the proletariat than his predecessors. You're welcomed to disagree.


http://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf


"our analyses suggest that majorities of the American public actually have little influence over the policies our government adopts. Americans do enjoy many features central to democratic governance, such as regular elections, freedom of speech and association, and a widespread (if still contested) franchise. But we believe that if policymaking is dominated by powerful business organizations and a small number of affluent Americans, then America’s claims to being a democratic society are seriously threatened"


rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1109 on: June 02, 2017, 07:06:21 PM »
How direct democracy makes Switzerland a better place

Switzerland has a very direct form of democracy, with a large amount of decisions open to referendums. A good way to hold governments to their promises. Also, a great amount of decisions are made at the local level - again open to direct citizen participation in decisions. All decision making should be delegated to the most local level that is possible and efficient.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1435383/How-direct-democracy-makes-Switzerland-a-better-place.html

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1110 on: June 02, 2017, 07:57:21 PM »
World leaders condemn Trump's decision to quit Paris climate deal
Quote
(CNN)President Donald Trump faced a chorus of global disapproval Friday in the wake of his decision to pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, with allies and rivals uniting to accuse him of failing future generations.

Some of the fiercest criticism came from Europe, where many leaders had made personal appeals to Trump to stick with an accord backed by 195 nations.

Following Trump's carefully stage-managed announcement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni put out a joint statement in which they pledged to implement the Paris climate agreement notwithstanding the withdrawal of the US.
...
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/02/world/us-climate-world-reacts/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1111 on: June 02, 2017, 08:12:08 PM »
Politifact:  Fact-checking Donald Trump's statement withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2017/jun/01/fact-checking-donald-trumps-statement-withdrawing-/
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Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1112 on: June 02, 2017, 09:24:47 PM »
How direct democracy makes Switzerland a better place

Switzerland has a very direct form of democracy, with a large amount of decisions open to referendums. A good way to hold governments to their promises. Also, a great amount of decisions are made at the local level - again open to direct citizen participation in decisions. All decision making should be delegated to the most local level that is possible and efficient.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1435383/How-direct-democracy-makes-Switzerland-a-better-place.html

Aye, this is why I advocate city/regional emissions programs. It's both more feasible and likely to take root and spread. Top-down approaches on a global scale (the biggest top-down approach there can be) tend to be inefficient, clunky and slow by default -- unless the scope of the change is limited.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1113 on: June 02, 2017, 09:34:44 PM »
82 U.S. Mayors Pledge to Uphold the Paris Climate Agreement After Trump Abandons It
Quote
Following President Donald Trump's decision Thursday to pull the United States out of the historic Paris climate accord, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo encouraged him to reconsider what she called a "short-sighted" move.

"The years to 2020 will be crucial in determining if the worst effects of climate change can be avoided. American leadership on this urgent challenge is needed now more than ever," she wrote in an op-ed for Newsweek.

But even without the Trump administration's involvement, "the great cities of the world...remain resolutely committed to doing what needs to be done to implement the Paris Agreement," wrote Hidalgo.

And, like clockwork, after Trump announced the pull-out from the pact, dozens of mayors of U.S. cities published an open letter vowing to "adopt, honor, and uphold the commitments to the goals enshrined in the Paris Agreement."

The letter initially had 61 signatories but an updated version published late Thursday added another 21. The 82 leaders of cities from Seattle to New York to Fayetteville, Arkansas say they represent 39 million Americans.

...
http://fortune.com/2017/06/02/paris-agreement-trump-decision-mayors-cities/
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pileus

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1114 on: June 02, 2017, 09:57:16 PM »
82 U.S. Mayors Pledge to Uphold the Paris Climate Agreement After Trump Abandons It
Quote
Following President Donald Trump's decision Thursday to pull the United States out of the historic Paris climate accord, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo encouraged him to reconsider what she called a "short-sighted" move.

"The years to 2020 will be crucial in determining if the worst effects of climate change can be avoided. American leadership on this urgent challenge is needed now more than ever," she wrote in an op-ed for Newsweek.

But even without the Trump administration's involvement, "the great cities of the world...remain resolutely committed to doing what needs to be done to implement the Paris Agreement," wrote Hidalgo.

And, like clockwork, after Trump announced the pull-out from the pact, dozens of mayors of U.S. cities published an open letter vowing to "adopt, honor, and uphold the commitments to the goals enshrined in the Paris Agreement."

The letter initially had 61 signatories but an updated version published late Thursday added another 21. The 82 leaders of cities from Seattle to New York to Fayetteville, Arkansas say they represent 39 million Americans.

...
http://fortune.com/2017/06/02/paris-agreement-trump-decision-mayors-cities/

This is great and it's encouraging to see mayors across the state of Florida joining the pledge.  Florida is obviously front and center wrt direct impacts of climate change, with sea level rise, higher intensity cyclones, excessive heat, real estate collapse, and forced migration all in the foreseeable future.  Interesting that the primary Miami municipality's mayor has not signed, but of course he is a Republican scoundrel.

It is heartening to see cities, states, and large organizations drawing a line and separating from the US federal govt on this and other issues.  The battle lines are drawn, and will continue to harden as Trump continues to transform the federal govt into a banana republic.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/239361-joe-henderson-bob-buckhorn-says-tampa-will-join-cities-honoring-paris-climate-accord-goals

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1115 on: June 03, 2017, 01:22:49 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1116 on: June 03, 2017, 01:44:05 AM »
And, wow.  Who needs the government?  8)

Michael Bloomberg: I'll make sure UN gets $15 million it needs for Paris agreement
Quote
Billionaire Michael Bloomberg says he is ready to help foot the bill for the Paris Climate Agreement after President Trump announced his decision to pull the Unites States out of it.

Bloomberg Philanthropies said Friday it will pull together $15 million to "support the operations" of the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change, the arm of the UN that coordinates the Paris pact.

The $15 million would cover the U.S. share of the convention's operating budget, according to Bloomberg spokesperson Carl Pope. The money will come from Bloomberg Philanthropies and its partners.

"The pledge aims to fill a significant funding gap that comes as a result of President Donald Trump's announced withdrawal from the Paris agreement and proposed steep budget cuts for international programs, including on climate," the Bloomberg Philanthropies statement reads.
...
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/02/news/michael-bloomberg-trump-paris-climate/index.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1117 on: June 03, 2017, 05:13:30 PM »
When fighting climate change it is a good idea to understand the larger picture:

“How America Stacks Up When It Comes to Greenhouse Gas Emissions”

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-America-stacks-up-greenhouse-gas-emissions-180963560/

Extract: “Based on data from the European Commission, Joint Research Center/Netherlands Environmental Agency and Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research, the top five emitters in what’s known as "carbon dioxide equivalents" (CO2 eq) released in 2012 are as follows:

1. China (12.45 million kilotons CO2 eq)
2. United States (6.34 million kilotons CO2 eq)
3. India (3.00 million kilotons CO2 eq)
4. Brazil (2.99 million kilotons CO2 eq)
5. Russian Federation (2.80 million kilotons CO2 eq)

Importantly, these numbers are based on CO2 equivalents. That means they include all the greenhouse gases a country emits—including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated compounds—to reflect the fact that warming results from a combination of gases released from both natural and human activities.”
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1118 on: June 03, 2017, 09:58:57 PM »
CO2e Increases by 4ppm to 489ppm in 2016

The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index estimates that overall greenhouse gases increased by an amount equivalent to 4ppm CO2 in 2016, far ahead of CO2 only. Average has been close to 3.5ppm CO2e this decade. Will be at 500ppm by 2020, a level associated with temperatures 3 degrees centigrade above preindustrial. The only thing balancing this are the sulfate aerosols from such things as burning coal, that produce a dimming effect.

The increase in CO2e remained relatively stable from 1990 to 2010, as increases in CO2 were offset by reductions in CFCs (Montreal Accords) and methane. Without these offsets, and with methane levels increasing again, the annual increase has jumped from an average of 2.6ppm in the first decade of the twenty first century to 3.43ppm since 2010 in CO2e per year - this is a significant acceleration in a short amount of time..

With policy efforts to reduce sulfate aerosol pollution, the related dimming will be reduced. Providing a double-whammy when combined with the increasing CO2e levels. Together with arctic sea ice loss, PDO changes etc. things are coming together nicely for a period of rapid warming. Policies are needed to cut methane and nitrous oxide emissions quickly, without which CO2e will continue to increase at least 1ppm per year faster than CO2.

Trump is a sideshow, this is the main event.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html
« Last Edit: June 03, 2017, 10:32:39 PM by rboyd »

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1119 on: June 03, 2017, 10:38:02 PM »
We're now up to 187 US Mayors representing 52 million Americans.

Quote
As 187 US Mayors representing 52 million Americans, we will adopt, honor, and uphold the commitments to the goals enshrined in the Paris Agreement. We will intensify efforts to meet each of our cities’ current climate goals, push for new action to meet the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, and work together to create a 21st century clean energy economy....
https://medium.com/@ClimateMayors/climate-mayors-commit-to-adopt-honor-and-uphold-paris-climate-agreement-goals-ba566e260097


14 states (including 4 Republican governors) representing over 40% of the US economy have either joined the US climate alliance or declared their support for Paris agreement.
https://twitter.com/scottwahlstrom/status/870778926838054912
« Last Edit: June 03, 2017, 10:44:52 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1120 on: June 03, 2017, 10:51:07 PM »
Is this 1.5C target still seriously being thrown around as something to rally around? It's not "ambitious-looking", it makes a mockery of the numbers.

The only reason we haven't crossed it is due to the aerosol parasol. 489 ppm CO2e alone puts us over 2C:



=2.94W/m2

For an ECS of just 3C, that's 2.35C, assuming emissions are zeroed out today. If you assume heroic efforts and we add just 60ppm CO2e more, that's 3C or at least 2.1C this century. The only reason it's still technically possible is because it's possible that ECS is <3C.

Kevin Anderson is probably right.

My point here is not to throw our hands up and give up, it's to acknowledge the bad circumstances we're in. Claiming a 1.5C target is a complete abdication of that and gives a dangerous impression that we're not in as bad of a situation as we actually are.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2017, 11:11:53 PM by Csnavywx »

oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1121 on: June 03, 2017, 11:03:40 PM »
Is this 1.5C target still seriously being thrown around?
I doubt anyone serious ever meant it seriously. We will probably be over 1.5 before this agreement starts to have any effect, assuming it does start at some point. But politically and publicity-wise it's a nice headline. I actually saw it in a newspaper article today.

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1122 on: June 03, 2017, 11:12:46 PM »
Is this 1.5C target still seriously being thrown around?
I doubt anyone serious ever meant it seriously. We will probably be over 1.5 before this agreement starts to have any effect, assuming it does start at some point. But politically and publicity-wise it's a nice headline. I actually saw it in a newspaper article today.

I edited my post to expand my argument a bit. I think it pretty much qualifies as soft denial at this point.

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1123 on: June 04, 2017, 05:22:35 PM »
My point here is not to throw our hands up and give up, it's to acknowledge the bad circumstances we're in. Claiming a 1.5C target is a complete abdication of that and gives a dangerous impression that we're not in as bad of a situation as we actually are.
I've always thought the idea of setting a goal that couldn't possibly be reached was poor PR, but trying to maneuver the masses into the proper state of alarm, without having them yelling in the street, or retiring to their bedroom's, is probably a difficult task.
While I haven't yet resorted to either option, the later looks increasingly reasonable.
 :-\
Terry

magnamentis

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1124 on: June 04, 2017, 05:51:43 PM »
Is this 1.5C target still seriously being thrown around?
I doubt anyone serious ever meant it seriously. We will probably be over 1.5 before this agreement starts to have any effect, assuming it does start at some point. But politically and publicity-wise it's a nice headline. I actually saw it in a newspaper article today.

it's exactly as you say which is why i never put much expectation into this eyewash-treatment which has only one value IMO, it's a starting point, shows that the issue is recognized by many and is certainly better than nothing.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1125 on: June 04, 2017, 07:31:54 PM »
"...a majority of Americans in every state say that the United States should participate in the Paris Climate Agreement."

(Even the Reddest of the Red States! :) )

"By a more than 5 to 1 margin, voters say the U.S. should participate in the Paris Agreement."


Two-page summary here:  http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/paris_agreement_by_state/

Full report here:  http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Global-Warming-Policy-Politics-November-2016.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1126 on: June 04, 2017, 08:41:13 PM »
Is this 1.5C target still seriously being thrown around as something to rally around? It's not "ambitious-looking", it makes a mockery of the numbers.
...
My point here is not to throw our hands up and give up, it's to acknowledge the bad circumstances we're in. Claiming a 1.5C target is a complete abdication of that and gives a dangerous impression that we're not in as bad of a situation as we actually are.

I fear you are letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.  ”1.5°” was designated as a stretch goal in the climate accord, even though many recognized a lower target would be preferable.  The most important thing right now is for the world to acknowledge the crisis and turn to head in the right direction, with as much effort as possible -- regardless of how the current target is phrased.  As time progresses, the 1.5° target will take on new meaning.
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1127 on: June 05, 2017, 12:10:59 AM »
EU climate laws undermined by Polish and Czech revolt, documents reveal

"East European EU states are mounting a behind-the-scenes revolt against the Paris Agreement, blocking key measures needed to deliver the pledge that they signed up to 18 months ago. Under the climate accord, Europe promised to shave 40% off its emissions by 2030, mostly by revising existing climate laws on renewables, energy efficiency and its flagship Emissions Trading System (ETS).

But documents seen by Climate Home show that Visegrad countries are trying to gut, block or water down all of these efforts, in a rearguard manoeuvre that mirrors president Donald Trump’s rollback of climate policy in Washington.

Energy efficiency is supposed to make up around half of Europe’s emissions reductions by 2030, but a Czech proposal could cut energy saving obligations from a headline 1.5% a year figure to just 0.35% in practice. Below the radar, Poland has also launched a manoeuvre that may block the EU’s winter package in its entirety – particularly a planned limit on power plant emissions – if it is signed up to by a third of EU parliaments, or 10-13 states."

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/05/29/eu-climate-targets-undermined-polish-czech-revolt-documents-reveal/

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1128 on: June 05, 2017, 12:50:38 AM »
Thanks for an enlightening link.


With Brexit, followed by Trump's dumping of the Paris Accord, NATO being squeezed, and now an Eco-Revolt by Poland and other Right Wing Eastern European States, the Eu is taking fire from all sides. Brussels needs to get Germany on board, test France's resolve & make some tough decisions now.
Say goodby to Britain, do a climate deal with China, and whip Eastern Europe into submission WRT the Paris Accord. Telling Trump where to park it will be difficult, he will be aiding the Polish/Hungarian revolt.


Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1129 on: June 05, 2017, 03:56:28 PM »
The linked article indicates that some CEO's who publically encouraged Trump to stay in the Paris Accord, privately funded lobbyists to encourage Trump to exist the Accord.  This makes me wonder how many nations that are currently criticizing Trump, will actually fulfill the promises that they made in the Accord (you can fool all of the people some of the time …):

https://theintercept.com/2017/06/04/paris-accord-trump-lobby-ceo-withdraw/
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1130 on: June 05, 2017, 08:12:01 PM »
Just finished binge watching the new House of Cards season, seems that its a pretty good reflection of some of our two-faced politicians and CEO's on the climate change issue.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1131 on: June 05, 2017, 09:31:52 PM »
Just finished binge watching the new House of Cards season, seems that its a pretty good reflection of some of our two-faced politicians and CEO's on the climate change issue.

Interestingly, there seem to be a large number of two-faced Republican senators who publicly deny climate change while privately acknowledging that humans are causing dangerous climate change.
---

Recently it was revealed by Trump's son-in-law that during Trump's presidential campaign the people inside the campaign knew that birthism (Obama not a natural born US citizen) was a pile of bull.  But since most Republicans were so stupid that Trump would use birthism in his campaign in order to win their votes.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1132 on: June 05, 2017, 11:18:47 PM »
How the Koch network rivals the GOP - The billionaires and their allies have built a private political machine without precedent.

The Koch Brothers' political machine has pretty much made it impossible for a Republican politician to come out for climate change and survive, so instead they toe the line.

"Koch and his brother David Koch have quietly assembled, piece by piece, a privatized political and policy advocacy operation like no other in American history that today includes hundreds of donors and employs 1,200 full-time, year-round staffers in 107 offices nationwide. That’s about 3½ times as many employees as the Republican National Committee and its congressional campaign arms had on their main payrolls last month, according to POLITICO’s analysis of tax and campaign documents and interviews with sources familiar with the network. And the staggering sum the network plans to spend in the 2016 election run-up ― $889 million ― is more than double what the RNC spent in the previous presidential cycle."

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/koch-brothers-network-gop-david-charles-217124

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1133 on: June 06, 2017, 03:50:54 AM »
U.S.:  1,219 governors, mayors, businesses and universities declare ‘We Are Still In’ on Paris Climate Agreement
Quote
The other day we brought news of Trump declaring he intends to pull the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement and the swift response from state and local governments opposing the move.  Since then, more governments, businesses and universities have voiced their displeasure at this poor decision, and today an assortment of 1,219 of these entities released an open letter declaring their continued support for the Paris Agreement, posted at the website: wearestillin.com…

The open letter has been signed by governments representing 120 million Americans and $6.2 trillion worth of the US economy.  The businesses combined represent $1.4 trillion in annual revenue, including 20 Fortune 500 companies.

The unique aspect of this coalition is that it brings together bipartisan state and local governments, businesses, investors and college and university leaders all into one voice, which helps to put an end to two talking points in particular which are often advanced by polluting industry: that climate science is politically motivated; and that being sensitive to the environment is too costly for the US economy.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/06/05/1219-governors-mayors-businesses-and-universities-declare-we-are-still-in-on-paris-climate-agreement/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1134 on: June 06, 2017, 03:50:30 PM »
Here is Scribbler's take on Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Accord:

"Trump Against The World — Withdrawal From Paris Threatens Both Global Security and Economic Competitiveness"

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/06/05/trump-against-the-world-withdrawal-from-paris-threatens-both-global-security-and-economic-competitiveness/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1135 on: June 06, 2017, 08:14:28 PM »
How G.O.P. Leaders Came to View Climate Change as Fake Science

The Koch Brothers, their allies and unlimited amounts of money ....

"Unshackled by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision and other related rulings, which ended corporate campaign finance restrictions, Koch Industries and Americans for Prosperity started an all-fronts campaign with television advertising, social media and cross-country events aimed at electing lawmakers who would ensure that the fossil fuel industry would not have to worry about new pollution regulations.

Their first target: unseating Democratic lawmakers such as Representatives Rick Boucher and Tom Perriello of Virginia, who had voted for the House cap-and-trade bill, and replacing them with Republicans who were seen as more in step with struggling Appalachia, and who pledged never to push climate change measures.

But Americans for Prosperity also wanted to send a message to Republicans. Until 2010, some Republicans ran ads in House and Senate races showing their support for green energy. “After that, it disappeared from Republican ads,” said Tim Phillips, the president of Americans for Prosperity. “Part of that was the polling, and part of it was the visceral example of what happened to their colleagues who had done that.”

"What happened was clear. Republicans who asserted support for climate change legislation or the seriousness of the climate threat saw their money dry up or, worse, a primary challenger arise. “It told Republicans that we were serious,” Mr. Phillips said, “that we would spend some serious money against them.” By the time Election Day 2010 arrived, 165 congressional members and candidates had signed Americans for Prosperity’s “No Climate Tax” pledge."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/03/us/politics/republican-leaders-climate-change.html?ref=oembed
« Last Edit: June 06, 2017, 08:21:12 PM by rboyd »

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1136 on: June 06, 2017, 08:45:02 PM »
IN THE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT, THE KOCH BROTHERS’ CAMPAIGN BECOMES OVERT

"If there was any lingering doubt that a tiny clique of fossil-fuel barons has captured America’s energy and environmental policies, it was dispelled last week, when the Trump Administration withdrew from the Paris climate accord. Surveys showed that a majority of Americans in literally every state wanted to remain within the agreement, and news reports established that the heads of many of the country’s most successful and iconic Fortune 100 companies, from Disney to General Electric, did, too. Voters and big business were arrayed against leaving the climate agreement. Yet despite the majority’s sentiment, a tiny—and until recently, almost faceless—minority somehow prevailed."

"As the climate scientist Michael Mann put it to me in my book “Dark Money,” when attempting to explain why the Republican Party has moved in the opposite direction from virtually the rest of the world, “We are talking about a direct challenge to the most powerful industry that has ever existed on the face of the Earth. There’s no depth to which they’re unwilling to sink to challenge anything threatening their interests.” For most of the world’s population, the costs of inaction on climate change far outweigh that of action. But for the fossil-fuel industry, he said, “It’s like the switch from whale oil in the nineteenth century. They’re fighting to maintain the status quo, no matter how dumb.”

"But it’s worth remembering that Fred Koch, Charles and David’s father and the founder of the family company, had a favorite admonition. He warned his boys to keep a low profile and stay below the surface, because, as he put it, “It’s when the whale spouts that he gets harpooned.”

I'd certainly like to see these two harpooned.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/in-the-withdrawal-from-the-paris-climate-agreement-the-koch-brothers-campaign-becomes-overt

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1137 on: June 07, 2017, 06:22:37 PM »
New report:  IEA says World can reach ‘net zero’ emissions by 2060 to meet Paris climate goals
Carbon Brief runs through what is needed to change course. This includes the early closure of most of the world’s coal fleet, incurring losses of up to $8.3tn by 2060.
Quote
Part of its latest report is devoted to tracking the progress of clean energy, technology by technology, repeating a sobering reality check that it carries out each year. This year, the IEA says electric vehicles, energy storage, plus solar and wind are on track for a 2C scenario.

This compares poorly to the eight sectors that are not on track and the 15 sectors where more efforts are needed. While this picture appears fairly gloomy, it’s worth comparing to what the IEA said two years ago, when no sectors were on track, and last year, when only one was.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-world-can-reach-net-zero-emissions-by-2060-meet-paris-climate-goals
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1138 on: June 07, 2017, 07:49:48 PM »
New report:  IEA says World can reach ‘net zero’ emissions by 2060 to meet Paris climate goals
Carbon Brief runs through what is needed to change course. This includes the early closure of most of the world’s coal fleet, incurring losses of up to $8.3tn by 2060.
Quote
Part of its latest report is devoted to tracking the progress of clean energy, technology by technology, repeating a sobering reality check that it carries out each year. This year, the IEA says electric vehicles, energy storage, plus solar and wind are on track for a 2C scenario.

This compares poorly to the eight sectors that are not on track and the 15 sectors where more efforts are needed. While this picture appears fairly gloomy, it’s worth comparing to what the IEA said two years ago, when no sectors were on track, and last year, when only one was.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-world-can-reach-net-zero-emissions-by-2060-meet-paris-climate-goals

Too conservative.  I think the world will be largely FF carbon free before 2050. 

And I wonder if the $8.3tn loss from early closure of coal plants reflects the trillions in external costs that will be saved.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1139 on: June 07, 2017, 08:02:07 PM »
Quote
losses of up to $8.3tn by 2060

The paper cited says -

Quote
If global power sector emissions remain flat until 2025, before falling more steeply later on, then losses could reach $8.3tn by 2060

The probability of global power sector emissions remaining flat over the next seven years approaches zero.

The paper says early coal plant closures would cost coal plants $3.7 trillion in revenue.  The world probably pays out more than half a trillion dollars per year subsidizing coal through health costs.  Payback well before 2050. 

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1140 on: June 07, 2017, 11:00:27 PM »
The probability of global power sector emissions remaining flat over the next seven years approaches zero.
I'm not that sure. China got very serious.

(From https://www.carbonbrief.org/what-global-co2-emissions-2016-mean-climate-change )

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1141 on: June 08, 2017, 01:07:15 AM »
Quote
I'm not that sure. China got very serious.

Correct.  China has started cutting coal use.  CO2 emissions are dropping in many countries and rising in only few. 

Before seven years are up we should see a lot more electric vehicles on the road.  Sounds like Tesla is getting ready to go big with 18-wheeler electric trucks.  And Tesla, alone, should be manufacturing more than a million EVs per year by 2025. 

CO2 emissions are highly unlikely to stay flat until 2025. 

Martin Gisser

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1142 on: June 08, 2017, 01:16:23 AM »
Quote
I'm not that sure. China got very serious.

Correct.
Haha.
Apologies for misreading you.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1143 on: June 08, 2017, 02:30:42 PM »
Graph is based on Google searches:

"In the US, climate change has never experienced the level of media attention or public interest it received over the past week."
https://twitter.com/trevorghouser/status/872462658758295553
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1144 on: June 08, 2017, 07:57:31 PM »
I support Naomi Oreskes' assessment that the only ways to fix climate change denial in the USA is to either change the GOP, "... or to vote Republicans out of office":

"The Republican party – not Trump – is the biggest obstacle to climate action" by Naomi Oreskes

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/05/republican-party-climate-change-policies-donald-trump

Extract: "There’s a saying in business: fix the problem, not the blame. It’s a nice concept, but you can’t fix a problem if you don’t know its cause. And just as the scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change is clear, the historical evidence of opposition to action is also clear: the greatest obstacle to American action on climate change for the past 20 years has been the Republican party, and this opposition has proven itself to be impervious to argument, even from what one might think would be trusted sources.

American business and religious leaders, distinguished senior Republicans who served in the Nixon and first Bush administrations, and even the Pentagon have called for action on climate change. But it has had no impact on Republican policies.

This conclusion is hard for some to accept, particularly for scientists, as it seems overtly partisan. (And it may seem unfair to the few, courageous Republicans who have spoken out on the issue.) But as scientists have called upon us to accept the reality of climate change, we must accept the reality that American climate change denial is not bipartisan. It is Republican. And the only way to fix it is to change the Republican party, or to vote Republicans out of office."
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1145 on: June 08, 2017, 09:35:27 PM »
Mistaking the symptom for the cause. The Republican Party is simply an external face of the underlying problem - the primacy of big money over politics and the media in the United States. With so many of the huge oil & gas corporations headquartered in the US, together with the extreme resistance to government intervention by many of the rich, the current GOP and Trump is the result.

The Democrats aren't much better, with some real leadership from Obama Paris could have been so much more.

Read "Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right", it is certainly an eye opener.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1146 on: June 11, 2017, 08:03:32 PM »
China and California sign deal to work on climate change without Trump
Quote
...
Tuesday’s agreement between California and China’s Ministry of Science and Technology effectively sidestepped Trump’s move, bringing about alignment on an issue of rising global importance between the world’s second-largest economy — China — and California, whose economy is the largest of any U.S. state and the sixth largest in the world.

Brown signed similar collaboration agreements over the past several days with leaders in two Chinese provinces, Jiangsu and Sichuan.

Like the Paris accord, the deals are all non-binding. They call for investments in low-carbon energy sources, cooperation on climate research and the commercialisation of cleaner technologies. The agreements do not establish new emission reduction goals.
...
Communist party leaders pledged that greenhouse gas emissions would peak no later than 2030 under the Paris pact, and start to fall after that. They have cancelled the planned construction of more than 100 new coal-fired power plants and plan to invest at least $360bn in green energy projects by the end of the decade.

The nation’s consumption of coal fell in 2016 for a third consecutive year, but rebounded slightly in 2017. It could meet its 2030 target a decade early.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jun/07/china-and-california-sign-deal-to-work-on-climate-change-without-trump
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1147 on: June 12, 2017, 01:05:21 AM »
 And just hours later, Germany also agrees to work with California.

Germany and California agree joint fight against climate change
Quote
Germany and California have agreed to cooperate in the fight against climate change following Washington's decision to withdraw from the landmark Paris agreement of 2015.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, and California, the largest state economy within the US, will support the work of the "Under 2 Coalition" which includes cities, regional governments and states, German Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks said  Saturday.

"We cannot achieve our climate goals without the engagement of local and regional communities. That has become even clearer after the US withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement," Hendricks said after agreeing on the joint approach with California Governor Jerry Brown in San Francisco.
...
"China and Germany - two of the most powerful countries in the world - are working with California and with other states to deal with climate change," Brown said. "The current withdrawal from the Paris Accord by the Washington administration is being overcome and countermanded by people throughout the whole world."
...
http://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-california-agree-joint-fight-against-climate-change/a-39193649
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1148 on: June 14, 2017, 07:41:35 PM »
Forget Trump.  An actual climate leader will represent the U.S. at COP 23.

California governor named special adviser to UN climate conference
Quote
California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) on Tuesday was named a special adviser to the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany, later this year.

The appointment by Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama came less than two weeks after President Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the 195-nation Paris climate accord.

Dozens of business executives, mayors and governors including Brown have vowed to uphold the country's commitment to the agreement despite Trump's decision to withdraw.

Brown has become a high-profile advocate for climate action on the world stage in recent weeks. The California governor traveled to China last week, where he spoke with President Xi Jinping about climate change and signed bilateral climate deals.

He also hosted German Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks in San Francisco, reaffirming his state's commitment to combating the effects of climate change and abiding by the terms of the Paris deal.

When he travels to Germany for the U.N. conference — COP 23 — in November, Brown will be a special adviser for states and regions, representing local jurisdictions committed to fighting climate change. He'll be joined at COP 23 by Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D) and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D).

"This decision has redoubled our commitment to forge a Grand Coalition that includes all levels of government, businesses and civil society, to take climate action forward with the urgency it deserves," Bainimarama, the incoming president of the U.N. conference, said.

"I look forward to taking the next step later this year with Governor Kate Brown and Governor Jay Inslee when we join Prime Minister Bainimarama in Bonn to show that states and regions will fulfill the Paris commitment," Brown said in a statement.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/337692-california-gov-named-special-adviser-to-un-climate-conference
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1149 on: June 15, 2017, 03:28:56 PM »
Good explainer from CarbonBrief.

Analysis: US states and cities could meet Paris climate goals without Trump
Quote
States have the ability to indirectly or directly regulate the vast majority of US carbon emissions in the absence of federal action and, by themselves, could meet US obligations under the Paris Agreement. However, the political divide over the need to take action on climate change at the federal level is reflected in the states, with many reluctant to establish emission reduction policies.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-us-states-cities-could-meet-paris-climate-goals-without-trump
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