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Author Topic: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond  (Read 206343 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #50 on: December 07, 2014, 07:38:57 PM »
China offered new details on its commitment to rein in greenhouse gases and called on rich nations to speed up delivery of the $100 billion in annual climate-related aid they’ve promised by 2020.

China will work to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases emitted for every dollar of gross domestic product and to boost its stock of forests that absorb emissions, Su Wei, China’s lead climate negotiator, said today. The comments are among the most significant from a Chinese official since President Xi Jinping pledged last month to begin to reduce carbon-dioxide pollution around 2030 and expand supplies of renewable power.

Addressing carbon intensity is key as China emits almost twice as much pollution to achieve the same amount of growth as the U.S., according to data from the International Energy Agency. China’s carbon intensity is on par with the U.S. level in 1985.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-12-04/china-broadens-pollution-pledge-in-call-for-more-climate-funding
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #51 on: December 07, 2014, 07:48:01 PM »
Canada to U.S.: your game, but my rules.
On Friday, the minister announced that Ottawa will enact new regulations to control hydrofluorocarbons, which are used in air conditioning and heating. The powerful short-term greenhouse gases account for only 1 per cent of Canada’s overall emissions. But she reiterated that Ottawa will not move to regulate emissions from the oil sands until the United States is ready to address its oil industry – a decision that, according to many analysts, makes it virtually impossible for Canada to hit its 2020 target.

While the United States, China and the European Union have announced new emissions targets, the Canadian government faces mounting skepticism about its commitment to meet 2020 targets, and is a long way from announcing its goals for 2025 or 2030.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canada-sticks-to-its-line-on-the-oil-sands-at-un-climate-summit/article21979592/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #52 on: December 07, 2014, 07:56:28 PM »
That stance from Canada is going to go a long way in helping PBO to make a decision on the Keystone pipeline.    ;D

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #53 on: December 08, 2014, 03:36:33 PM »
Do as I say, but not as I do?

Australia’s insistence on legally binding emissions targets is an ‘impossible requirement’ that would drive away the US and China, experts say, suggesting the Abbott government is trying to set up the climate change talks for failure.
“A legally binding agreement is of no value anyway, as, while it may be legally binding, such an agreement is not enforceable. Look at Canada’s walking away from its legally binding Kyoto commitments … and there is no evidence that countries are more likely to deliver on notionally legally binding than on domestic political commitments.
...
“Australia is going in the opposite direction. Its Direct Action policy contains no binding limits on emissions. This discussion about the need for legally binding international commitments is just a distraction and would be the worst possible thing for a successful global climate agreement.”

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/08/abbott-government-accused-of-trying-to-set-up-climate-change-talks-for-failure
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #54 on: December 08, 2014, 09:21:20 PM »
Philippines Official On Typhoon Hagupit: ‘The Impacts Of Climate Change Are Beyond Our Capacity’
...Mary Ann Lucille Sering, commissioner of the Philippines’ Climate Change Commission and lead climate official for the Philippines at the conference, said that Hagupit and the other typhoons that have hit the Philippines in recent years show that “the impacts of climate change are beyond our capacity already.”

“Our country’s experience makes our work here (in Lima) so much more meaningful, as this is no longer just a job for us but a fight for our survival and the future of our nation,” she said. “We hope that the Philippine experience, no matter how difficult, can help unite all nations to take more concrete actions on climate change.”

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/08/3600673/philippines-typhoon-hagupit-climate-impacts/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #55 on: December 09, 2014, 03:01:16 AM »
Fossil fuel giants like Chevron and Shell tried to host a panel at the UN climate talks, but activists (and media) overpowered the event demanding the truth be told.

https://storify.com/350dotorg/get-the-fossil-fuels-out-of-climate-talks

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jamie-henn/a-fossil-fuel-scandal-at-_b_6278018.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #56 on: December 09, 2014, 02:20:18 PM »
Increasing calls for "zero emissions by 2050”
World Bank chief calls for “zero net emissions” climate goal

Jim Kim joins growing momentum behind drive to ensure 2015 climate deal will wipe out fossil fuel use

http://www.rtcc.org/2014/12/09/world-bank-chief-calls-for-zero-net-emissions-climate-goal/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #57 on: December 09, 2014, 07:45:41 PM »
Increasing calls for "zero emissions by 2050”


We can do that.

2050 is 35 years away.  Jacobson and Delucchi (2009) laid out the road map to get their in only 20 years.  Since their paper we've improved our technology, making the job easier.



http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/sad1109Jaco5p.indd.pdf

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #58 on: December 09, 2014, 10:13:04 PM »
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to attend Lima climate conference.
LIMA, Peru — In a sign of the importance that the Obama administration has placed on the outcome of United Nations climate change negotiations taking place here this week, Secretary of State John Kerry will arrive on Thursday to strongly urge negotiators to reach a deal, according to sources familiar with Mr. Kerry’s plans but unauthorized to speak to the media. Typically, the secretary of state would not join diplomatic negotiations at this level, but Mr. Kerry has made climate change a priority of his tenure.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/us/politics/kerry-plans-to-attend-climate-talks.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #59 on: December 09, 2014, 11:28:05 PM »
India considers emissions peak 2035-50
Since the US-China joint declaration that the US will reduce emissions by 2025 and China’s will peak by 2030, the Indian government has been under increasing international pressure to make a similar commitment.  China is now the world’s top GHG emitter, the US second and India third.

According to senior officials in the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change, this pressure was ratcheted up last week, just before New Delhi announced that US president Barack Obama would be the chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade on January 26.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, these officials told indiaclimatedialogue.net that the US administration had made a joint declaration on the lines of the US-China declaration almost a condition before Obama accepted the invitation.
...
A veteran American climate negotiator told indiaclimatedialogue.net: “Diplomats do not use words such as ‘conditions’, but the White House has made its wishes clear.” He added that he was hopeful that a joint declaration would be made during the Obama visit.
...
Asked what the peaking year could be, the official said: “All options between 2035 and 2050 are on the table. We have commissioned some studies by independent think tanks to gauge the effect of the peaking year on the Indian economy.

http://www.rtcc.org/2014/12/03/india-considers-emissions-peak-2035-50/#.dpuf
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #60 on: December 09, 2014, 11:38:13 PM »
Sounds like most of the world has decided that's it's time to get to work and cut carbon.

Santa will be delivering a sock full of coal to Abbott.  With some luck Santa will knock some sense into Tony's thick skull.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #61 on: December 09, 2014, 11:43:54 PM »
Shell makes climate pitch as UN targets zero carbon planet
Indeed, analysts at Climate Action Tracker calculated the latest commitments from the European Union, US and China put likely warming at 2.9-3.1C.

CCS expert Heleen de Coninck, from Radbound University, warned against placing too much faith in the technology.
...
Even if it does take off, there are limits on the volume of storage sites, she added. CCS on energy intensive industry like steel and cement, for which there are few alternatives to fossil fuels, should take priority.

“It is very important to never see CCS as an alternative to demand reduction and renewable energy.”

At a separate press conference, IPCC contributing author Malte Meinhausen stressed the need to phase out emissions.

“At some point emissions have to go to zero, no matter what,” he said. “Even at higher or lower temp levels there is no way around zero CO2 levels.”

International climate policy expert Farhana Yamin told RTCC countries were unlikely to oppose a 2050 zero emissions target for fear of being labelled “science deniers”. [my emphasis]

Sweden, Norway, Costa Rica, Bhutan and the Marshall islands have been among the most vocal advocates for such a goal.

French president Francois Holland, who will host next year’s climate conference, and UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon have also called for long term ambition.

http://www.rtcc.org/2014/12/09/shell-makes-climate-pitch-as-un-targets-zero-carbon-planet/#.dpuf
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crandles

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #62 on: December 10, 2014, 02:06:35 AM »
India considers emissions peak 2035-50

countries were unlikely to oppose a 2050 zero emissions target for fear of being labelled “science deniers”.

An Indian emission peak by 2050 at the same time as world zero emissions. Hmmm.  ???  :o ;)

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #63 on: December 10, 2014, 03:22:53 AM »
Is there now a reliable study/set of studies that demonstrates that we must be a zero CO2 by 2050?

crandles

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #64 on: December 10, 2014, 11:23:56 AM »
I think that is the trillion tons of carbon emissions stuff:

This cumulative carbon measure has the added benefit that it strips away a lot of the uncertainties surrounding complicated scenarios for cutting emissions, says IPCC climate modeler Myles Allen of Oxford University. "Policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon are likely to be more scientifically robust than [those from] emissions rates or concentration targets," he says.

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/the_trillion-ton_cap_allocating_the_worlds_carbon_emissions/2703/

'Likely to be more scientifically robust' may well be different to your 'demonstrates that we must'.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #65 on: December 11, 2014, 08:14:10 PM »
Goal to end fossil fuels by 2050 surfaces in Lima UN climate documents
Campaigners in Lima are eyeing an ‘inevitable’ end to the fossil fuel industry by mid-century

In an early evening briefing, climate scientist Dr Malte Meinshausen explained the 2050 decarbonisation date was derived from statements in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.

He said that from 2011, the world could afford to emit no more than 1000bn tonnes (Gt) of CO2 to have a good chance of staying below 2C of global warming (some poorer countries and low-lying states say the aim should be 1.5C). Meinshausen said:

At current rates we churn through 33Gt a year – 1000Gt divided by 33 means we have about 30 years left from 2011 onwards. Then the carbon budget will be exhausted.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2014/dec/08/goal-to-end-fossil-fuels-by-2050-surfaces-in-lima-un-climate-documents
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #66 on: December 11, 2014, 09:28:07 PM »
The 1 Gigaton Coalition: saving gigatons of CO2 emissions each year via energy efficiency and renewables.
UNEP-Coordinated Coalition Aims to Support Climate Change Fight through Measuring Emission Reductions from Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy Projects

Lima, Peru, 10 December 2014 - A coalition launched today at the climate talks in Lima aims to boost efforts to save billions of dollars and billions of tonnes of CO2 emissions each year by measuring and reporting reductions of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from projects and programmes that promote renewable energy and energy efficiency in developing countries.

The 1 Gigaton Coalition, initiated by the Government of Norway and coordinated by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), has been formed in light of the understanding that many countries have a wide range of renewable energy and energy efficiency projects and initiatives in place.

However, most do not measure or report the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that result. The Coalition believes that, if measured, these reductions would amount to about one gigaton a year by 2020 - showing the savings that can be made and thus encouraging the uptake of energy efficiency policies and renewable energy technologies.

http://www.unep.org/newscentre/Default.aspx?DocumentID=2814&ArticleID=11106&l=en
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wili

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #67 on: December 11, 2014, 10:04:42 PM »
" saving gigatons of CO2 emissions each year via energy efficiency..."

Two words for you: Jevons paradox.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #68 on: December 11, 2014, 10:27:50 PM »
Two words for you -

Improper application.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #69 on: December 12, 2014, 02:28:17 AM »
Catholic Bishops from every continent denounce fossil fuel use and capitalism, "which is a human creation."
A group of Catholic Bishops called on the world’s governments to end fossil fuel use on Wednesday, citing climate change’s threat to the global poor as the lodestar of their concern.

According to the BBC, the statement is the first time senior officials in the Church from every continent have issued such a call. The statement also drops in the middle of ongoing international climate talks in Lima, Peru, as countries continue to hash out what to do about climate change in the run-up to a summit in 2015, where observers and activists hope a new international agreement will be finalized.

“We express an answer to what is considered God’s appeal to take action on the urgent and damaging situation of global climate warming,” the bishops wrote.

Striking a similar note to Naomi Klein’s recent book, “This Changes Everything,” the bishops’ statement also argued that global capitalism and its economic systems, as currently designed, are incompatible with long-term ecological sustainability: “The main responsibility for this situation lies with the dominant global economic system, which is a human creation. In viewing objectively the destructive effects of a financial and economic order based on the primacy of the market and profit, which has failed to put the human being and the common good at the heart of the economy, one must recognize the systemic failures of this order and the need for a new financial and economic order.”

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/11/3602596/bishops-end-fossil-fuels/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #70 on: December 12, 2014, 03:58:45 AM »
" saving gigatons of CO2 emissions each year via energy efficiency..."

Two words for you: Jevons paradox.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox


One word for you: Outdated.

More words:   :)

Some also argue that making energy cheaper by reducing demand just leads consumers to use more, a phenomenon called the rebound effect. Steven Nadel, executive director of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, said the effect was real but relatively modest, with about 20 percent of saved energy in developed countries being used as a result.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/01/business/energy-environment/energy-efficiency-may-be-the-key-to-saving-trillions.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #71 on: December 12, 2014, 04:17:43 AM »
There is likely some avoided electricity use due to cost but freeing up more electricity via efficiency is not likely to cause people to turn on a second TV in their living room or fire up two ovens to heat their left over meat loaf.   

Efficiency, if anything, will lead to lower price increases rather than price drops.  In general we are shutting down cheaper supply (dirty coal plants) and replacing them with supply that is about the same price or a bit more expensive.

(Except for those very expensive reactors coming on line in the SE.  Some day.  Maybe.)

viddaloo

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #72 on: December 13, 2014, 03:56:12 AM »
Lima: Recipe for Failure (and civilization collapse)

12 December 2014 – Addressing the Congress of Peru today, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said that despite impressive development achievements, big challenges remain – to address inequality and insecurity, deepen democracy, improve the quality of education, and protect the rights of all people regardless of gender, ethnicity, culture, religion or sexual orientation.

Being UN–focused: UN Czar Ban Ki-moon trying very hard to fail.

[]

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #73 on: December 13, 2014, 06:02:02 PM »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #74 on: December 13, 2014, 06:39:25 PM »
Australia:  Abbott begins to turn around on climate change.

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/abbott-sniffs-the-wind-on-climate-change-20141212-12660c.html


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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #75 on: December 13, 2014, 09:48:53 PM »
10-minute video: Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore speaks to the Lima conference.
"We are drawing the design for the global Paris agreement."
http://unfccc6.meta-fusion.com/cop20/events/2014-12-11-15-38-lima-climate-action-high-level-meeting/mr-al-gore-former-vice-president-of-the-united-states-of-america
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #76 on: December 13, 2014, 10:31:41 PM »
Greenpeace disrespects one of the ancient Peruvian Nasca lines (mentioned in Al Gore's speech, above).
http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/12/travel/greenpeace-nazca-lines-damage/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #77 on: December 14, 2014, 03:57:05 AM »
Many countries disagree with the proposed text.  Discussions continue.
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viddaloo

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #78 on: December 14, 2014, 05:15:53 AM »
 ;D

'Absorbing the effects of climate change' will cost a lot more than $200 billion annually by 2050. I'd be surprised if a good old billion could buy you anything worth having in 2050.

Rich countries insisted the pledges focus on efforts to control emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases and were resisting demands that they include promises of financing to help poor countries absorb the effects of climate change, which the U.N. environment agency last week estimated will amount to at least $200 billion annually by 2050.

UN climate talks in Peru deadlocked as wealthy nations resist scope of demands
[]

Lennart van der Linde

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #79 on: December 14, 2014, 12:35:54 PM »
The Lima Call to Climate Action + Annex:
http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/lima_dec_2014/application/pdf/auv_cop20_lima_call_for_climate_action.pdf

“Noting with grave concern the significant gap between the aggregate effect of Parties’ mitigation pledges in terms of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”

Some options in the Annex:
“A global emission budget to be divided among all Parties, in accordance with the principles and provisions of the Convention, in order to limit global warming this century to below 1.5 °C according to the IPCC assessment. The distribution of the global emission budget should be undertaken in accordance with historical responsibilities, ecological footprint, capabilities and state of development.”

“Consistent with carbon neutrality / net zero emissions by 2050, or full decarbonization by 2050 and/or negative emissions by 2100″

“Consistent with emissions peaking for developed countries in 2015, with an aim of zero net emissions by 2050; in the context of equitable access to sustainable development”

“Stabilization of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at or below 350 ppm of CO2 equivalent in the context of equitable access to sustainable development”

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #80 on: December 14, 2014, 01:42:31 PM »
Lima: Recipe for Failure (and civilization collapse)
...
Being UN–focused: UN Czar Ban Ki-moon trying very hard to fail.

Nowhere does the article say anything about civilization collapse.  Or failure of the talks.

Your impressive achievements have moved the world closer to meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs),” Mr. Ban said, commending the Latin American nation for advances in poverty reduction, universal education, and water supply and sanitation.

“This week, Lima became the centre of global efforts toward an ambitious new climate change agreement and setting the world on a safer, more sustainable path,” he said.
...
Also today, Mr. Ban met with President Ollanta Moisés Humala Tasso of Peru at the launch of a National Plan on human rights education. Mr. Ban commended Peru’s landmark law on Consultation with Indigenous Peoples, the first in Latin America. Through this law, Peru has recognized that dialogue is fundamental to social cohesion and sustainable development.
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viddaloo

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #81 on: December 14, 2014, 02:46:02 PM »
This is as big as failures come, IMO, so I think I'm entitled to use the F–word.
[]

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #82 on: December 14, 2014, 04:08:07 PM »
The UN COP20 talks in Lima, Peru have concluded.  The final document is derided as weak, but it is significant that it says all countries, not just the rich ones, must act. Remember, Lima was not supposed to create global law, merely to provide a framework for a Paris 2015 treaty. 

Since so many individual countries haven't managed to pass tough binding legislation on their own turf, it is remarkable that 190 disparate countries found any agreement -- even at a low level.  The most significant climate actions are being taken at other than state level.  And more and more, the people are demanding action.


Note: Recent announcements by China, the United States and European Union, who comprise approximately 53% of global emissions, have bent the world's warming curve away from 4 or 6°C down to 3 +/- .1 °C.   
http://climateactiontracker.org/news/178/China-US-and-EU-post-2020-plans-reduce-projected-warming.html

 
A few tweets:
@ClimateReality: The goal of Lima? To create a framework requiring all nations to put forward plans over the next six months to cut their own emissions.

@rtcc_sophie: Text includes: language on adaptation, greater balance across elements, CBDR, finance, loss and damage… #COP20

@brandoncwu: New text has nice new words & references re adaptation, finance, loss & damage, carefully placed to have absolutely no legal meaning #COP20

@EricHolthaus: "Lima Call for Climate Action" is anything but... though at least #COP20 isn't a complete collapse. UN process seems increasingly irrelevant

@rtcc_sophie: Of course it makes perfect sense that a meeting about future of planet would start around midnight when no one's slept for 48 hours. #COP20


Tcktcktck has a good summary of the COP20 agreement, pulling no punches.
Overall, this COP shows governments are disconnected from their people who are worried about climate risks and want a just transition to boost our economies, deliver jobs and strengthen public health. Increasingly domestic issues, whether they are elections or decisions about major projects such as the Keystone XL pipeline in the US and the Galilee basin in Australia, will be seen as a country’s intention on climate change. While governments were able to hide in Lima, they won’t have that luxury in Paris where the world will be expecting them to deliver an agreement.

http://tcktcktck.org/2014/12/daily-tck-lima-climate-talks-fall-short-expectations-attention-shifts-paris/65760


Reuters: Not enough for 2°, but agreement does say all countries, rich and poor, must act.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0JS04520141214

London, The Telegraph: Lima climate change summit: 'weak' UN deal could let countries dodge green pledges
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/11292872/Lima-climate-change-summit-weak-UN-deal-could-let-countries-dodge-green-pledges.html

WWF:
“Governments crucially failed to agree on specific plans to cut emissions before 2020 that would have laid the ground for ending the fossil fuel era and accelerated the move toward renewable energy and increased energy efficiency."

http://www.wwf.org.uk/about_wwf/press_centre/scottish_press_centre/?7418/UN-climate-talks-fail-to-deliver-progress-despite-hottest-year-on-record---WWF-comment


Climate Reality gives the positive spin:
First, this has been a critical two weeks with many reasons for #ClimateHope and signs that the tide is finally turning in our favor. Second, we have a lot of work to do between now and December 2015 to get the agreement we need.

http://climaterealityproject.org/blog/cop20-brief

@ClimateReality: .@UN negotiators now praise US & China–once outcasts of the climate community–for their climate commitments http://t.co/8uDaMcoauU #COP20


The UN's announcement:
UN: Lima Call for Climate Action Puts World on Track to Paris 2015
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/3587.aspx

Noted: Important steps to bring education back into the spotlight
@cinulima: #COP20 Educación y participación pública claves p/ promover #desarrollosostenible resiliente.
https://mobile.twitter.com/cinulima/status/543969578947477504/photo/1

And here is the document:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2014/cop20/eng/l14.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #83 on: December 14, 2014, 07:19:55 PM »
Under a new climate deal, all countries will plan to limit carbon emissions. That's a first.
http://www.vox.com/2014/12/14/7389955/climate-deal-lima
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viddaloo

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #84 on: December 14, 2014, 07:26:21 PM »
Norwegian Green Party says the 'deal' is that everyone can just do what they want. Ie a no–deal deal.
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Laurent

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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #86 on: December 15, 2014, 02:10:28 PM »
Great article pointing out important work being done outside of the talks -- showing, rather than telling, other countries what is working.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/12/14/at-climate-talks-in-lima-not-same-as-it-ever-was/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #87 on: December 15, 2014, 02:42:47 PM »
It was tempting to leave it to Lima to solve the entire world crises, so we could say, "Now that's done," and get on with our lives.  It's not going to be that easy!
The U.N. process isn't where the action is on climate anymore. Progressive cities, transformative industries, and mass protests have the best chance of providing the tipping point that's needed. These talks are a distraction from the kind of urgent, on-the-ground work that needs to happen in order to steer the world’s economy toward a carbon-free path and prepare for the impacts of increasingly extreme weather.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/12/14/lima_peru_climate_change_negotiations_one_word_undermines_the_entire_thing.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #88 on: December 15, 2014, 05:55:52 PM »
"Broad participation with moderate ambition trumps narrow participation with big ambition."
The substitution of the phrase “may include” for “shall include” in regard to the elements of the INDCs was one of the compromises that was necessary to gain the approval of developing countries. So, the U.S.-favored requirement for the use of transparent elements in INDCs that would facilitate comparisons among countries was dropped.

However, at least one negotiating team with whom I met in Lima maintained that the analyses and comparisons of INDCs that will inevitably be carried out by various NGOs and research organizations (including universities) will provide the needed transparency and therefore the needed encouragement to countries for greater ambition.

http://t.co/SSnhlTA9aP
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #89 on: December 15, 2014, 09:20:08 PM »
Full disclosure - I stole this comment...

The final Lima declaration is basically mood music for the real negotiations in Paris.

Figueres' plan is simple. The crucial commitment at Lima was for all countries to submit their detailed national mitigation plans, which will all be published on the UNFCC website. There are no numbers at present, so countries can submit whatever they like,

But lowball targets, as with hapless Australia's, will then come under sustained pressure from the climate hawk countries, and ridicule from public opinion. The success of the plan will depend very much on all of us kicking up an almighty fuss in the second half of 2015.

Watch out especially for India. Will it really refuse to cut, on the grounds that rich countries are responsible for most of the historic CO2?


James Wimberley
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/12/15/enough-weak-un-talk-lima-cop20/#comment-1742679474

And I added the emphasis....

viddaloo

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #90 on: December 15, 2014, 09:28:27 PM »
Let's hope all the delegations stay back in their home cities during the so–called Paris meeting and submit their minuscule emissions cut obligations via the Internet. That way we can at least be sure that the meeting itself does not contribute to catastrophic global warming.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #91 on: December 16, 2014, 12:42:55 AM »
China, Australia, India and Russia have already been shamed into acting on climate.  More will follow.  And if even if countries don't count up their own progress (or lack of progress), other groups will do it for them.

By asking countries to put forward plans dictated by their own economies and domestic politics, rather than a top-down mandate, the Lima Accord helped secure the agreement of every nation to some kind of carbon-cutting action, experts say.

But with no language requiring the significant cuts scientists say are needed to stave off the costly effects of global warming, countries can put forth weak plans that amount to little more than business as usual. Countries can even choose to ignore the deal and submit no plan at all.

“If a country doesn’t submit a plan, there will be no punishment, no fine, no black U.N. helicopters showing up,” said Jennifer Morgan, an expert on climate negotiations with the World Resources Institute, a research organization.

Instead the architects of the plan, including top White House officials, hope that the agreement will compel countries to act to avoid international condemnation.

“It relies on a lot of peer pressure,” Ms. Morgan said.

The structure of the deal is what political scientists often call a “name-and-shame” plan.

Under the Lima Accord all countries must submit plans that would be posted on a United Nations website and made available to the public.

A requirement that all countries submit plans using identical metrics, for easy comparison, was deleted from the accord because of the objection of developing nations.

“What’s essential for naming and shaming is that the individual contributions be comparable,” said Robert Stavins, a professor of Environmental Economics at Harvard University.

But already, a number of research groups and universities expect to crunch the numbers of the plans, producing apples-to-apples assessments. The hope, negotiators said, is that as the numbers and commitments of each country are publicized, compared and discussed, countries will be shamed by the spotlight into proposing and enacting stronger plans.

“We see the sunlight as one of the most important parts of this,” said Todd D. Stern, the senior climate-change negotiator for President Obama

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/15/world/americas/lima-climate-deal.html
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viddaloo

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #92 on: December 16, 2014, 01:16:41 AM »
China, Australia, India and Russia have already been shamed into acting on climate.

You're using a tense of the verb here that I agree would've been nice, but for which there is no basis. If China had 'been shamed into acting on climate' it would mean they'd already acted. As you and I know, all they've done is 1) pledge their rapid rise in GHG emissions will peak in 16 years, by the end of 2030, and 2) agree to tell the UN within 100 days what they would like to do with their own GHG emissions.

China was very clear in Lima that they didn't want the UN or anyone to compare what they would say to the UN (in 100 days) that they would like to do, with what any other regime would say to the UN that they would do. In other words they could still pull out — even from the minuscule promises they've made for what they will do in almost two decades — if in any way their efforts are publicly compared to other regimes.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #93 on: December 16, 2014, 02:04:51 AM »
As you and I know, all (China has) done is 1) pledge their rapid rise in GHG emissions will peak in 16 years, by the end of 2030, and 2) agree to tell the UN within 100 days what they would like to do with their own GHG emissions.

If you ignore closing thousands of inefficient coal plants.  Installing very large amounts of wind, solar and hydro generation.  Test driven multiple models for putting a price on carbon and used that data to create a cap and trade system which should be in place in 2016.  Put a major push on moving drivers into EVs, including greatly expanding charging outlets.

Ignore all that and then you'd be correct.

viddaloo

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #94 on: December 16, 2014, 03:21:23 AM »
True, but much of the wind and solar cannot be counted, as they are being used to sell cap and trade allowances to eg. Norway to pollute even more than we already do from the oil and gas sector, as Norway is buying Chinese CO2 quotas even from windfarms that were actually built before Norway signed the deals.

So in a nutshell: With cap and trade, every ton of reduced GHG emissions in China are compensated with increased GHG emissions in Norway. Which of course doesn't help the atmosphere.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #95 on: December 16, 2014, 04:34:54 AM »
Norway hit "peak coal" for this century at 1 million tonnes of oil equivalent and has since fallen to 0.7 in 2013.  Norway has recently had a very aggressive program for moving drivers into EVs.

I haven't found recent CO2 numbers for Norway but I did find this graph...



http://www.environment.no/Topics/climate/norways-climate/

I see no rise, in fact, it looks to me as if total GHG emissions are flat in recent years.
---

Now, let me ask you.  Why did you attempt to use China's selling of CO2 quota's to pour cold water on the renewables China is installing?


viddaloo

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #96 on: December 17, 2014, 07:17:00 PM »
Lima: Recipe for Failure (and civilization collapse)
...
Being UN–focused: UN Czar Ban Ki-moon trying very hard to fail.


Nowhere does the article say anything about civilization collapse.  Or failure of the talks


Newsweek now using the F–word:

Why the Lima Agreement Is a Failure
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #97 on: December 17, 2014, 07:30:58 PM »
Short sighted article by Newsweek.  No wonder they are a failing magazine.  They lost their quality long ago.

The importance of Lima is that it put countries in the position of creating a plan for their own countries and making those plans public. 

A world wide "law" is not workable.  The way forward is for each country to find its own path and face internal and external criticism when it is not moving rapidly enough.

wili

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #98 on: December 19, 2014, 02:02:23 AM »


http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2014/12/16/the-real-outcome-of-global-warming-talks-in-lima-a-future-for-coal/

The Real Outcome of Global Warming Talks in Lima: A Future for Coal

The shift of a single word—from a “shall” to a “may”—means the world will very likely continue to burn lots of coal.

Instead of being required to provide “quantifiable information” about their greenhouse-gas emissions, countries may choose whether or not to include those statistics in their pledges instead, known in the jargon as “intended nationally determined contributions.”

These pledges or INDCs are promises that come in a variety of flavors
– not just strict pollution cuts like those from the E.U. nations, but also softer targets, such as reducing the amount of energy used to produce a single widget in India while producing more widgets overall (a so-called “carbon intensity” goal).

China and India led the charge against any monitoring or verification of such pledges. Worse, the Chinese and Indian negotiators do not appear to want INDCs to be comparable with each other. In other words, the pledges “may” prove mutually inscrutable.

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Treaty - Paris 2015
« Reply #99 on: December 19, 2014, 08:17:47 PM »


http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2014/12/16/the-real-outcome-of-global-warming-talks-in-lima-a-future-for-coal/

The Real Outcome of Global Warming Talks in Lima: A Future for Coal

The shift of a single word—from a “shall” to a “may”—means the world will very likely continue to burn lots of coal.

Instead of being required to provide “quantifiable information” about their greenhouse-gas emissions, countries may choose whether or not to include those statistics in their pledges instead, known in the jargon as “intended nationally determined contributions.”

These pledges or INDCs are promises that come in a variety of flavors
– not just strict pollution cuts like those from the E.U. nations, but also softer targets, such as reducing the amount of energy used to produce a single widget in India while producing more widgets overall (a so-called “carbon intensity” goal).

China and India led the charge against any monitoring or verification of such pledges. Worse, the Chinese and Indian negotiators do not appear to want INDCs to be comparable with each other. In other words, the pledges “may” prove mutually inscrutable.



See #88 above.  If some countries do not do their own accounting, other interested entities most certainly will do it themselves....
However, at least one negotiating team with whom I met in Lima maintained that the analyses and comparisons of INDCs that will inevitably be carried out by various NGOs and research organizations (including universities) will provide the needed transparency and therefore the needed encouragement to countries for greater ambition.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.