The linked article is entitled: "If We Want To Stop Climate Change, We’re Going To Have To Pay For It". My general feeling is that both the need to work together, and the need to enact serious measures like carbon fees/taxes, will mean that the progressive parts of the Paris Pact will unfold relatively slowly, and that consequently GMSTA will exceed 3C before 2050 (as I believe that ECS is closer to 4.5C than to 3C), which may then trigger a collapse of the WAIS and may induce some nations to implement some form of solar radiation management:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/climate-finance-day-cop-22_us_581ef22ae4b0e80b02ca9949
Extract: "It’ll be an expensive fight, and time is running out.
Addressing climate change is expected to cost the world tens of billions of dollars annually through 2020, in the form of efforts to curb emissions and adaptations to changes that are already underway. A recent report from the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate estimates that local and national governments and large banks will need to invest up to $90 trillion by 2050 to keep the planet from warming more than 2 degrees Celsius, the level at which scientists say the worst effects of climate change take hold.
… carbon taxes are “absolutely key” to discouraging investment in fossil fuels, said Gerard Mestrallet, chairman of Paris Europlace, a French financial think tank. Such a strategy would quantify climate risks, as each ton of carbon emissions would come at a hefty price. It would also undercut profits for big polluters and push investment toward low- and no-carbon alternatives like solar and wind.
“We must put a value on the climate risk associated with greenhouse gas emissions,” Mestrallet said.
While large governments, including from the U.S. and China, have taken important steps in recent months, the burden to act can’t rest on one nation’s shoulders, said Carbon Tracker Initiative’s Hobley. Cooperation is key.
“We can’t assume some fairytale government is going to legislate us on a fairytale pathway,” he said, urging business leaders to act. “We have a mission, all of us now, get out and communicate to the financial markets, the decisions made now can destroy [investment] value or they can create it.”
The Paris Agreement, while historic, is voluntary; nations that don’t follow through on their pledges face no legal repercussions."
Edit: The second linked ESLD reference indicates that the remaining carbon budget from 2015 may be as low as 590 GtCO2; and as CO₂-e emissions are around 50GtCO2 (which exceeds RCP 8.5 50%CL), it is easy to see that assuming ECS is 3C we could readily exceed the 2C limit by around 2030, or if ECS is 4C then we could exceed 2.7C by around 2032 to 2035, if we continue on our current BAU pathway for another 16 to 19 years.
Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Pierre Friedlingstein, Nathan P. Gillett, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Myles Allen & Reto Knutti (2016) "Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 6, Pages: 245–252, doi:10.1038/nclimate2868http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n3/full/nclimate2868.html
I note that the estimate of exceeding 2.7C by 2032 to 2035, does consider lag-time after the carbon budget has been exceeded, but does not consider the risk of accelerating Arctic Amplification due the potential early seasonal loss of Arctic Sea Ice Extent.