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Author Topic: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond  (Read 141874 times)

pileus

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #850 on: November 18, 2016, 04:35:30 AM »
More than 365 U.S. businesses and investors call for continued support for the Paris Agreement.

Dear President-elect Trump, President Obama, Members of the US Congress, and Global Leaders at COP22 in Marrakech:

We, the undersigned members in the business and investor community of the United States, re-affirm our deep commitment to addressing climate change through the implementation of the historic Paris Climate Agreement.

We want the US economy to be energy efficient and powered by low-carbon energy. Cost-effective and innovative solutions can help us achieve these objectives. Failure to build a low-carbon economy puts American prosperity at risk. But the right action now will create jobs and boost US competitiveness. We pledge to do our part, in our own operations and beyond, to realize the Paris Agreement’s commitment of a global economy that limits global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius.
...

http://www.lowcarbonusa.org/


It's good to see corporate America starting to exert pressure on Trump.  Nothing speaks louder to the GOP than big business and profit.  If Trump can be convinced that it would make him look good, he would likely be prone to changing his tune, since he has no set of consistent beliefs or positions.

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #851 on: November 18, 2016, 12:27:39 PM »
World CO2 emissions stay flat for 3rd year, helped by China falls - study
MARRAKESH, Morocco, Nov 14 (Reuters) - World greenhouse gas emissions stayed flat for the third year in a row in 2016, thanks to falls in China, even as the pro-coal policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump mean uncertainty for the future, an international study said on Monday.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry were set to rise a tiny 0.2 percent in 2016 from 2015 levels to 36.4 billion tonnes, the third consecutive year with negligible change and down from three percent growth rates in the 2000s, it said.

http://news.trust.org/item/20161114000455-vw85r/


Last year's estimate was too low. A paper came out recently basically refuting the claim that emissions were flat last year, revising that estimate upwards due to faulty assumptions about the energy density and carbon content of the coal being used in China. I'm willing to bet this one will be revised upwards as well, just like the other two. I will try and find and post the link to said paper.

Also, unlike the past two years, China is scrambling to increase production in response to a recovering industrial sector and over-zealous production cuts in smaller/less-efficient mines and mining days in the big mines. This has led to a big price spike. With this and the onset of much colder than normal weather (due to coupled atmospheric changes over the Arctic Ocean and Siberia), I would expect a late consumption spike, effectively erasing whatever gains were made at the start of the year.

Furthermore, Chinese statistics have a long history of revision after-the-fact. It's tough for them to get it accurately on the first pass (as last year's big revision showed yet again). Chinese statistics are like a fine wine, they get better with age. It's hard for me to take them at face value when they're first released, so there's room for more adjustment as we go forward.

In conclusion, it would not surprise me to see this revised upwards to a 1-2% increase next year. Still slower than the 2000s, but not going in the right direction for sure. This better matches the airborne fraction and rate of rise of CO2 in the last couple of years (even when adjusting for ENSO effects), which is still increasing.

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #852 on: November 18, 2016, 12:48:00 PM »
That letter from the investors is nice, but given the transition team appointments already made and the statements already made by Congress, there's little hope that either the Accord or the CPP survives. This is bordering on Pollyannaish echo-chamber talk. The same type of echo-chamber talk that lost the election. These media fools comparing it to Obamacare provisions don't know what they're talking about. He mentioned those provisions specifically on the campaign trail, so to act like it's a flip-flop is, at the very least, being dishonest with themselves.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-climatechange-accord-idUSKBN1370JX?il=0

He has no intention of keeping us in. Elections have consequences, and this is one of them. The options being floated are pulling out of the UNFCCC or deleting the signature via executive order (since it was enacted by executive order instead of going through Congress). The executive order strategy enacted by Obama is about to backfire. Of course, Trump's got a friendly Congress with majorities in both chambers and a (soon-to-be) friendly Supreme Court, so he may go the permanent route and take the measure through the Senate, killing off any future chance of us re-joining in its current form. Any litigation brought to the Supreme Court in this scenario will lose, as the Court traditionally sides with US law over any international law.

The same applies to the CPP. With a Republican Congress and Supreme Court, he could easily pass a bill that permanently strips the EPA's ability to regulate greenhouse gasses, shutting down any path via litigation.

This is what happens when you build a legacy on executive orders. You leave it hostage to fortune. The risk of ruin is bigger than often anticipated.

I'm open to being proved wrong, but I don't think I will be. If you want to be mad at someone, be mad at the DNC. They're the ones who tilted the playing field to a losing candidate. They bet the farm, thinking it was going to be an easy "bag" and got caught with their pants down.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #853 on: November 18, 2016, 08:07:52 PM »
Trump’s dilemma: to please his friends by trashing the Paris climate deal, or not?
By Bill McKibben
It seems likely that the Paris climate accords will offer one of the first real tests of just how nuts Donald Trump actually is. For a waiting world it’s a public exam, his chance to demonstrate either that he’s been blowing smoke or deeply inhaling.

Think, if you will, of the Paris agreement as a toy painstakingly assembled over 25 years by many of the world’s leading lights. It has now been handed, as a gift, to the new child-emperor, and everyone is waiting to see what he’ll do.

His buddies – the far-right, climate-denying, UN-hating renegades who formed his campaign brains trust – are egging him on to simply break it, to smash it on the floor for a good laugh. In fact, they’re doing their best to give him no way out. “President-elect Trump’s oft-repeated promises in the campaign are fairly black-and-white,” said Myron Ebell, head of his Environmental Protection Agency transition team, last week. (Ebell believes that the Paris deal is an attempt to “turn the world’s economy upside-down and consign poor people to perpetual poverty” – and that climate science is done by “third-rate, fourth-rate and fifth-rate scientists”.)

On the other side are the world’s business leaders, 365 of whom just signed a letter asking Trump to keep America engaged in the Paris process to provide “long-term direction”. These are not people who have spent their lives in obscure rightwing thinktanks. They run stuff – like DuPont, General Mills, Hewlett-Packard, Hilton, Kellogg, Levi Strauss, Nike and Unilever. And it’s hard to run stuff if the rules keep changing....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/18/trump-paris-climate-deal-president-elect
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #854 on: November 18, 2016, 08:50:21 PM »
More than 190 countries just subtweeted Trump on global warming
Near the closing of the latest round of U.N. climate talks in Marrakech, Morocco, diplomats agreed to issue a document known as the "Marrakech Action Proclamation." The proclamation makes clear that countries are all in on fighting climate change, regardless of what a Trump administration does.

"Our climate is warming at an alarming and unprecedented rate and we have an urgent duty to respond," the proclamation states.
...
Documents like this must be passed by consensus during U.N. climate talks, which means that any objections can scuttle their adoption.

The fact that this made it through, reportedly to cheers from participants and observers, indicates the solidarity among the international community — including representatives of the Obama administration — to move forward with the Paris agreement regardless of what the U.S. does.

http://mashable.com/2016/11/18/cop22-message-to-trump-climate-change/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #856 on: November 21, 2016, 02:10:32 PM »
I dare to hope that statements such as this will illustrate to Trump that there are adverse consequences to his crazy proclamations In Real Life that he didn't think about during his campaign.


Like this:

A Donald Trump Trade War With China Would Hurt America: Experts
BEIJING — If Donald Trump launches a trade war with China it would likely result in catastrophic losses for both nations and possibly a humbling defeat for the United States, experts have warned.

Trump's campaign promise to "make America great again" included a threat to slap a 45-percent import tariff on Chinese goods.

"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country," he told a rally in Indiana in May. "That's what they're doing. It's the greatest theft in the history of the world."

But as in a regular war, China has formidable weapons of its own.

The Global Times, a Chinese state-run newspaper, warned last week that Beijing would take a "tit-for-tat approach" if Trump followed through on his bold rhetoric.

"A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus, U.S. auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and U.S. soybean and maize imports will be halted," the paper said. "China can also limit the number of Chinese students studying in the U.S."

That would pose a serious problem for the American economy, whose bilateral trade with China stood at almost $600 million last year.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/donald-trump-trade-war-china-would-hurt-america-experts-n685886
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Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #857 on: November 21, 2016, 09:02:15 PM »
World CO2 emissions stay flat for 3rd year, helped by China falls - study
MARRAKESH, Morocco, Nov 14 (Reuters) - World greenhouse gas emissions stayed flat for the third year in a row in 2016, thanks to falls in China, even as the pro-coal policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump mean uncertainty for the future, an international study said on Monday.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry were set to rise a tiny 0.2 percent in 2016 from 2015 levels to 36.4 billion tonnes, the third consecutive year with negligible change and down from three percent growth rates in the 2000s, it said.

http://news.trust.org/item/20161114000455-vw85r/


Last year's estimate was too low. A paper came out recently basically refuting the claim that emissions were flat last year, revising that estimate upwards due to faulty assumptions about the energy density and carbon content of the coal being used in China. I'm willing to bet this one will be revised upwards as well, just like the other two. I will try and find and post the link to said paper.

Also, unlike the past two years, China is scrambling to increase production in response to a recovering industrial sector and over-zealous production cuts in smaller/less-efficient mines and mining days in the big mines. This has led to a big price spike. With this and the onset of much colder than normal weather (due to coupled atmospheric changes over the Arctic Ocean and Siberia), I would expect a late consumption spike, effectively erasing whatever gains were made at the start of the year.

Furthermore, Chinese statistics have a long history of revision after-the-fact. It's tough for them to get it accurately on the first pass (as last year's big revision showed yet again). Chinese statistics are like a fine wine, they get better with age. It's hard for me to take them at face value when they're first released, so there's room for more adjustment as we go forward.

In conclusion, it would not surprise me to see this revised upwards to a 1-2% increase next year. Still slower than the 2000s, but not going in the right direction for sure. This better matches the airborne fraction and rate of rise of CO2 in the last couple of years (even when adjusting for ENSO effects), which is still increasing.


http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2963.epdf?referrer_access_token=CQP0e8ieJx1p7TA4Hn6QaNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MzjhCJlVVAmG13-5PJDnSySK2Lxzv3D_ee1oyBWt_RNpsoeEXf8rGQ1sfSfZpnHLN21KeGCC5IysWOE3jY7AGT-hevVoHZP2jp5ylpvz3usEEnC2eT_4OFxH0CPHcOFJlJKy7ZZMDGY51QP_Jcm7BI285BkjiTSBAwR_z94dbuV_oRKKwHKYsyaewc4HfyV8mXb8vtZmOzb0Ii0gd8E65I&tracking_referrer=www.climatecentral.org

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #858 on: November 21, 2016, 11:11:21 PM »
A perspective from Canada.

Earth to America: Trump’s Not the Centre of the Universe (Or the Climate)
The small talk here in Marrakech was, of course, completely overshadowed by the U.S. election, as everyone knows,” Solheim said. “But I’m very optimistic that whatever happens in the U.S., China and others will provide the global leadership that we need.”

China, responsible for 25 per cent of the world’s emissions while also being the world’s largest solar energy market, seemed eager to wave its diplomatic finger at the U.S. It backed up the gesture by announcing a new climate partnership with the European Union.

Lutz Weischer, leader of international climate policy at Germanwatch, said the EU/China collaboration is a game changer. He suggested Trump may have inadvertently strengthened the international community’s resolve.

“The Chinese have made statements that read to me they believe this is a global challenge…indicating the EU and China can move forward on this together,” he said. “Trump was sort of a wake up call to everybody. Countries seem even more committed than in the past.”

Australia, Pakistan, Italy, Saudi Arabia and the U.K. have all ratified the Paris Agreement since Trump’s election, putting an end to speculation the U.S. shakeup might cause a climate treaty exodus.

Mohamed Adow, climate lead from Christian Aid International, said it’s a significant sign that even a post-Brexit U.K. isn’t abandoning the agreement.

“During a week in which the international climate negotiations have experienced the shock of the U.S. elections, this backing by America’s oldest and strongest ally shows that support for global action to tackle climate change remains resolute,” he said.

http://www.desmog.ca/2016/11/17/earth-america-trump-s-not-centre-universe-or-climate
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #859 on: November 22, 2016, 08:00:07 AM »
Lutz Weischer, leader of international climate policy at Germanwatch, said the EU/China collaboration is a game changer. He suggested Trump may have inadvertently strengthened the international community’s resolve.
Don't know about that, the unrest is certainly strenghtened and the EU is facing it's greatest crisis ever. European parliamentarians are raising voices for rearmament.

The US IS the center of the Trump Universe.

Bruce Steele

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #860 on: November 22, 2016, 08:26:15 AM »
Sigmetnow,   " China seemed eager to wave it's diplomatic finger at the U.S. "
Just which finger is China waving ?
I still think the rest of the world can contain some the the damage the Republicans plan on inflicting if they ( as many countries as can be persuaded )get together and in unison give us the finger ( my guess about the digit waved ).  The best way to do that is to tax or outright ban " made in U.S.A " .  It would be good if there was a clear message that climate negotiations aren't  to be walked back for election expediency .  China is in a prime position to take up the moral high ground and crush us economically at the same time. Great work Trumpsters !



AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #861 on: November 22, 2016, 05:03:43 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Guest post: Five ways the Paris Agreement can address oversupply of fossil fuels".  I wish the Paris Agreement well, but I am not going to hold my breath:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-five-ways-paris-agreement-can-address-oversupply-fossil-fuels
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #862 on: November 22, 2016, 08:10:43 PM »
It's working!!  (Trump flip-flops again....)

Eric Holthaus:  Trump at NYT: PEOTUS says there is "some connectivity" btwn human actions & climate, & will keep "open mind" when it comes to Paris Accord.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/801139639947886592

Mike Grynbaum:  On climate change, Trump says he is also thinking about "how much it will cost our companies” & the effect on American competitiveness.
   Does Trump think human activity is linked to climate change? “I think there is some connectivity. Some, something. It depends on how much."
   Tom Friedman asks if Trump will withdraw from climate change accords. Trump: “I’m looking at it very closely. I have an open mind to it."
https://twitter.com/grynbaum/status/801127600756170752
   
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #863 on: November 22, 2016, 11:10:29 PM »
It's working!!  (Trump flip-flops again....)
Let's just hope he get stuck on the correct flop.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #864 on: November 22, 2016, 11:48:32 PM »
Per the linked article Michael Bloomberg thinks that US cities will circumvent Trump to ensure that the US will meet the Paris pledges: ???

http://www.businessinsider.com/bloomberg-says-cities-uphold-paris-climate-agreement-despite-trump-2016-11

Extract: ""I am confident that no matter what happens in Washington, no matter what regulations the next administration adopts or rescinds, no matter what laws the next Congress may pass, we will meet the pledges that the US made in Paris," Bloomberg said in remarks delivered to the China General Chamber of Commerce."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #865 on: November 23, 2016, 05:39:49 AM »
It's working!!
Talk is cheap.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/us/politics/donald-trump-visit.html
On climate change, Mr. Trump refused to repeat his promise to abandon the international climate accord reached last year in Paris, saying, “I’m looking at it very closely.” Despite the recent appointment to his transition team of a fierce critic of the Paris accords, Mr. Trump said that “I have an open mind to it” and that clean air and “crystal clear water” were vitally important.


Adding some flip-flop that I know is true.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #866 on: November 23, 2016, 02:15:05 PM »
It's working!!  (Trump flip-flops again....)

Let's just hope he get stuck on the correct flop.


Here's the NYT article on the interview.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/us/politics/donald-trump-visit.html

As Vox commented:  "It’s also tough to tell at times whether Trump was saying what he believes or, as he often does, was just trying to get his audience to like him."

Brad Plumer tweeted:  "You'll have an easier time fusing two hydrogen atoms together with a hammer than extracting meaning from Trump's rambling on climate change."
https://twitter.com/bradplumer/status/801131099682435077

I guess the point is: he is not as inflexible as his campaign rhetoric would have you believe.  He's walked back many positions in recent days.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #867 on: November 23, 2016, 02:18:07 PM »
A transcript of Trump's interview with the New York Times is now out:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/23/us/politics/trump-new-york-times-interview-transcript.html
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Archimid

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #868 on: November 23, 2016, 02:35:11 PM »
That interview was a brilliant move by Trump. He goes to his most vociferous foe and speak soft words to them. He adulates them and make them feel comfortable, that way he takes off the pressure. Once the media lets off some pressure racism  and cronyism is normalized. He can move in and destroy anything his friends don't like and enrich himself.

I fully expect the first internment camps for immigrants and Muslims to crop up during the first year. He is already aiming to destroy NASA's Earth sciences.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/22/nasa-earth-donald-trump-eliminate-climate-change-research?CMP=twt_gu

He will probably take control of the internet before he can fully move. http://time.com/4150891/republican-debate-donald-trump-internet/

Scientist, science communicators and concerned citizens of the world will mostly fall prey to the Patriot act and be labeled terrorist and enemies of the state.

All this will be done while the vocal racist minority cheers on and the scared majority stays silent out of fear. This happened many times before.

The one silver lining is that the foolishness of the republicans will ruin the US economy(like bush did but on steroids) and the world economy. CO2 emissions will go down.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2016, 02:59:42 PM by Archimid »
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #869 on: November 23, 2016, 05:27:42 PM »
Merry Christmas NASA.
This would mean the elimination of Nasa’s world-renowned research into temperature, ice, clouds and other climate phenomena. Nasa’s network of satellites provide a wealth of information on climate change, with the Earth science division’s budget set to grow to $2bn next year. By comparison, space exploration has been scaled back somewhat, with a proposed budget of $2.8bn in 2017.

Bob Walker, a senior Trump campaign adviser, said there was no need for Nasa to do what he has previously described as “politically correct environmental monitoring”.

Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said as Nasa provides the scientific community with new instruments and techniques, the elimination of Earth sciences would be “a major setback if not devastating”.

“It could put us back into the ‘dark ages’ of almost the pre-satellite era,” he said. “It would be extremely short sighted.

“We live on planet Earth and there is much to discover, and it is essential to track and monitor many things from space. Information on planet Earth and its atmosphere and oceans is essential for our way of life. Space research is a luxury, Earth observations are essential.”

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University, said Nasa has a “critical and unique role” in observing Earth and climate change.

“Without the support of Nasa, not only the US but the entire world would be taking a hard hit when it comes to understanding the behavior of our climate and the threats posed by human-caused climate change,” he said.

“It would be a blatantly political move, and would indicate the president-elect’s willingness to pander to the very same lobbyists and corporate interest groups he derided throughout the campaign.”

Adding this video by Peter Sinclair:

Archimid

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #870 on: November 23, 2016, 05:39:54 PM »
National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Aeronautics:  is the science or art involved with the study, design, and manufacturing of air flight capable machines, and the techniques of operating aircraft and rockets within the atmosphere


It's in the freaking name, for crying out loud. NASA was made to master the air and space of the planet. That means putting satellites in orbit to learn as much as it can of the planet below for the good of the nation. Instead the cowards want to look out, ignore the planet we live in.


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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #871 on: November 23, 2016, 06:51:17 PM »
Sarcastic Rover:  "Show me a person worried about “politicizing science” and I’ll show you someone politicizing science.
   The surest way to ACTUALLY politicize science is to put an instrument in someone’s hand and then tell them where they CAN’T look."
https://twitter.com/sarcasticrover/status/801313592624693248

It's like saying, "I cannot believe fracking is causing the earthquakes in Oklahoma, so remove all the seismographs."

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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #872 on: November 23, 2016, 07:33:38 PM »
"For the record: The entire NASA Earth Science budget is 2.0 billion dollars.

Oil Industry subsidies per year are at least 4.8 billion."

https://twitter.com/sarcasticrover/status/801470455752183809
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #873 on: November 23, 2016, 11:58:25 PM »
U.S. citizens and permanent residents, only.  Over $400,000 raised so far, in just a few hours.

URGENT REQUEST: Help Jill Stein raise money for a recount in PA, WI, and MI. Click on the link and share widely! https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount

The Stein/Baraka Green Party Campaign is launching an effort to ensure the integrity of our elections. With your help, we are raising money to demand recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania-- three states where the data suggests a significant need to verify machine-counted vote totals.

This effort to ensure election integrity is in your hands! We need to raise over $2 million by this Friday, 4pm central. In true grassroots fashion, we’re turning to you, the people, and not big-money corporate donors to make this happen.

Your immediate support is crucial - Please donate now and share widely.

https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount

Meanwhile:
Clinton's popular vote lead surpasses 2 million
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/21/election-results-electoral-popular-votes-trump-clinton/94214826/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #874 on: November 24, 2016, 12:14:51 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #875 on: November 24, 2016, 02:56:27 AM »
Just rolled over a million bucks (in 5+ hrs)
#Recount2016
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount

Update: Jill Stein has raised the $1.1M required to force a Wisconsin recount. Now working on Pennsylvania & Michigan.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/801604339361951744
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #876 on: November 24, 2016, 04:22:09 AM »
Update: Jill Stein has now raised enough for recounts in WI ($1.1M) and PA ($500K). Another $600K for recount in MI.
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/801626412360663040
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #877 on: November 24, 2016, 08:14:15 AM »
I'm in extreme sympathy with the fears that I expect we are all feeling.
I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect of a country strong enough to close down this on any other web site,
I'm going to copy this to any other threads heading in this directon
Thanks
Terry

Pmt111500

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #878 on: November 24, 2016, 12:46:09 PM »
Terry, do you have a proposal on any other direction how people should moderate their feelings about a possible shutdown of science?
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #879 on: November 24, 2016, 01:12:43 PM »
Thursday Morning Update: Jill Stein has raised $2.5M+ in ~12 hours, enough to fund recount filing fees in WI, PA, and MI.
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount

The Wisconsin Elections Commission says it is now preparing for a recount—the first in a Pres race in state history.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections-commission-preps-for-recount-of-wisconsin-presidential-election/article_87dae9e3-76ad-5ecb-973a-51006668ab74.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #880 on: November 24, 2016, 01:26:35 PM »
I'm in extreme sympathy with the fears that I expect we are all feeling.
I also fear for the longevity of this forum & therefor wonder if it is wise to continue what could be considered as attacks on the president elect of a country strong enough to close down this on any other web site,
I'm going to copy this to any other threads heading in this directon
Thanks
Terry


Terry,
Recounts happen all the time in the U.S..  The difference here is that it is citizen-funded, rather than being triggered by automatic state recount regulations.  During his campaign, Trump made a big thing about the election "probably being rigged" if it turned out he didn't win, so a recount request is certainly no shock to him.  We only have to go back to the year 2000 when the Bush v. Gore election was contested for weeks, eventually being decided by the Supreme Court.  A lot of people were upset at that outcome, but Bush was peacefully installed as President.  Democracy is messy, but it works. 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore

Edit:
But proof of fraud is both "usually unattainable and also unnecessary" in many states to file for a recount, the person on the call said, and at the very least it would allay concerns from voters who insist the results of the election don't reflect them.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/green-partys-jill-stein-raises-millions-election-recount-n687801
« Last Edit: November 24, 2016, 02:00:46 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #881 on: November 24, 2016, 05:44:32 PM »
In response to the Guardian article, “Trump to scrap Nasa climate research in crackdown on ‘politicized science’”.

An Open Letter to Bob Walker, Senior Trump Advisor
...
Here is the problem. No amount of defunding Earth science will stop you from living on, and being a part of, this one finite planet we all share. No budget cuts will prevent you and your children, your community, your state and your nation from being at risk to the threats of extreme weather, water insecurity, geopolitical and food system destabilization, and the awful moral quagmire of climate commitment.
...
https://medium.com/@SarahEMoffitt/an-open-letter-to-bob-walker-senior-trump-advisor-1eaebf3546eb
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #882 on: November 25, 2016, 02:30:33 PM »
UPDATE:  with over $4.5 million raised via the Green Party crowd-funding site, vote recounts for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the states with the earliest filing deadlines, are funded (filing fees, attorney fees, state observer fees).  New goal is $7 million to include the recount in Michigan. Michigan filing deadline is November 30.
https://jillstein.nationbuilder.com/recount
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #883 on: November 25, 2016, 09:48:50 PM »
Sigmetnow
I really can't agree that the Gore-Bush election resulted in anything like a victory for democracy. Perhaps a victory for oligarchy, perhaps a victory for the deep state, but hardly a shining example of rule by the people.
The peaceful installation of Bush says more about the timidity of the populace than any standard of democracy.


I'd prefer to continue this below the line in the "REST' thread if that'd OK with you.


Terry

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #884 on: November 26, 2016, 07:32:30 AM »
Yikes, talk about a long shot. All of the following would have to happen for it to change the election:

1) Hillary would have to erase a 22k vote deficit on recount in Wisconsin. There's no evidence of vote tampering or hacking and the differences between paper and electronic ballots can easily be explained by demographic shifts. Doesn't mean hacking didn't occur, but there's no evidence either.
2) Trump's lawyers would have 5 days to appeal the results in court, which he would.
3) This situation would have to repeated for both Michigan and Pennsylvania. It's 12k votes in Michigan, so that's somewhat more doable than Wisconsin, but the spread is 78k in PA.

Full stop.

Without Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes, she has no chance. Without all three flipping, she has no chance.

This is a pipe dream.

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #885 on: November 26, 2016, 07:36:59 AM »
Sounded familiar. I guess Halderman went to Stein and convinced her it was hacking. Nobody else is convinced:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/demographics-not-hacking-explain-the-election-results/

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #886 on: November 26, 2016, 02:16:38 PM »
"After two weeks of negotiations, the United Nations climate talks came to a close in Marrakech in the early hours of November 19. Here are the major outcomes from the climate negotiations...."
http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/11/23/analysis/eight-things-you-should-know-about-marrakech-climate-talks
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #887 on: November 26, 2016, 07:39:37 PM »
California governor pledges US climate change leadership
Sunshine state has target of 40% carbon cuts on 1990 levels by 2030 and Donald Trump win will not change that, says governor
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/11/14/california-governor-pledges-us-climate-change-leadership
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #888 on: November 26, 2016, 07:50:30 PM »
Wisconsin Elections Commission Receives Two Presidential Election Recount Petitions
http://elections.wi.gov/node/4436

Clinton Campaign Will Participate in Stein’s State Recounts
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-26/clinton-campaign-will-participate-in-stein-s-state-recounts
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #889 on: November 26, 2016, 07:54:06 PM »
Business community to climate denier Donald Trump: Climate action is an economic imperative
The report comes as the business community urges Trump to act on climate.
Moreover, working to limit global warming to 1.5° C will require massive deployment of renewable energy, which will create more jobs. According to the report, policies consistent with 1.5° C of warming “would require an estimated 68 percent increase in jobs relating to energy operations and maintenance, manufacturing, construction, and installation by 2030.”
https://thinkprogress.org/new-report-details-the-staggering-cost-of-climate-inaction-4f4bc7bff4d
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #890 on: November 27, 2016, 07:50:25 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Shell CEO expects no valuation hit from climate accord", and it indicates that Royal Dutch Shell expects to pump out all of the fossil fuel reserves listed on its balance sheet, even with the Paris Pact being enforced:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-shell-climatechange-idUSKBN13L094?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5839c69d04d3011e8f861ae5&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #891 on: November 29, 2016, 09:00:39 PM »
Michigan's biggest electric provider phasing out coal, despite Trump's stance
LANSING, MI -- President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to end the "war on coal," but DTE Energy CEO Gerry Anderson said the company plans to phase out the fuel, regardless.

Anderson said the company had already shuttered three coal-fired units, and has plans to shelve another eight by 2030.

"All of those retirements are going to happen regardless of what Trump may or may not do with the Clean Power Plan," said Anderson in an interview.

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/11/michigans_biggest_electric_pro.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #892 on: December 01, 2016, 03:10:20 AM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #893 on: December 02, 2016, 09:31:47 PM »
“According to former colleagues, Ivanka takes her role seriously and sees herself as a steadying hand in her father’s gonzo and divided orbit.”

Trump sees his children playing an active role during his presidency.  Might they bring a different perspective to the White House?

Ivanka Trump, climate czar?
Ivanka, 35, Trump’s avatar among the moneyed left-wing elite, is now poised to be the first “first daughter” in modern history to play a larger public role than the first lady. And she’s positioning herself exactly as she did that weekend — as a bridge to moderates and liberals disgusted and depressed with the tone and tenor of the new leader of the free world.

And the ambitious daughter, who once plotted her career around international brand domination, is planning to take on an even heavier lift. Ivanka wants to make climate change — which her father has called a hoax perpetuated by the Chinese — one of her signature issues, a source close to her told Politico. The source said Ivanka is in the early stages of exploring how to use her spotlight to speak out on the issue.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/ivanka-trump-climate-czar-232031
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #894 on: December 03, 2016, 01:58:33 PM »
“Complaining about the election and the incoming administration doesn’t help anybody. We’re not here to debate whether there is climate change. We’re here to try to save the world, because the government’s not going to.”

US businesses push against Trump's attempts to dismiss climate change
From his claim that global warming was a gigantic hoax masterminded by China to his promise to pull the United States out of the landmark Paris agreement, Donald Trump’s surprise election win was widely decried by those who feared that recent progress in tackling climate change was about to come undone.

But a growing number of environmentally friendly American businesses – including major airlines and banks, as well as energy, tech and pharmaceutical companies – are pushing back against the president-elect’s attempts to dismiss climate change concerns and are planning to take the lead in the drive to make the US a worldwide leader at slowing or reversing the damage.

At the first Companies vs Climate Change conference in Fort Lauderdale on Wednesday, a succession of company executives, sustainable business experts and environmental activists spoke of the need for corporate America to step up efforts to help guide policy and fight what many see as the biggest threat facing the world today.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/01/climate-change-donald-trump-us-companies
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #895 on: December 04, 2016, 06:26:29 PM »
This is what it would take for Trump to truly damage the planet’s climate
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/29/this-is-what-it-would-take-for-trump-to-truly-damage-the-planets-climate/

Please remember that the projections shown in the article are 50% confidence level projections assuming AR5 climate sensitivity, and the base case assumes that all parties to the congress will continue to make more GHG emission cuts, well beyond what they have already pledged (see the following extract [with emphasis added] from the article and be aware that the global mean surface temperature departure from pre-industrial temperatures for 2016 will most like be about 1.25C, which is well above what the plots show):

Extract: "Oh, and one more thing: Let’s remember most of all that staying below 2 degrees is extraordinarily difficult even without Trump. That’s why middling pathways like the one above representing some U.S. and global action, but not enough, sound pretty realistic right now. In these possible worlds, the planet may not totally cook, but its change would still be sweeping.

The gist is that keeping climate warming under control was exceedingly hard before the 2016 U.S. election and will probably be still harder after it — but we still need to focus on the long term, and consider the entire the globe."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #896 on: December 04, 2016, 08:46:48 PM »
Germany tells World Bank to quit funding fossil fuels
The World Bank must end its support for the industries that cause climate change, Germany’s federal development minister Gerd Müller has said.

On Wednesday, German chancellor Angela Merkel and Müller met with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim to sign a cooperation agreement on climate change.

A statement from the German government said Müller had used the moment to call on the World Bank to put “an end to investments in obsolete and climate-damaging technologies”.

“The World Bank must also focus all of its work on climate and sustainability targets,” said Müller.

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/12/01/germany-tells-world-bank-to-quit-funding-fossil-fuels/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #897 on: December 07, 2016, 07:22:52 PM »
Natural Resources Defense Council:  States Will Drive Clean Energy Forward Until the U.S. Leads
While Congress and federal agencies like the Department of Energy play an important role in crafting clean energy policy and can help accelerate or slow clean energy progress, most clean energy decisions are actually crafted at the state level. Under our system of co-operative federalism, state lawmakers and utility regulators are charged with making decisions about what the energy mix in each state will be and how much will be invested in energy efficiency and renewable energy.

As a result, 29 states and the District of Columbia have established their own state-level renewable energy requirements, known as renewable portfolio standards. California and New York have committed to get 50 percent of their electricity from renewables by 2030. Oregon has set a goal of 50 percent by 2040. Vermont committed to get 75 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2032, and Hawaii promises a full 100 percent by 2045. The election can’t change this: each state makes its own decisions on renewable energy, independent of the federal government.
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/kit-kennedy/states-will-drive-clean-energy-forward-until-us-leads

Click maps to animate growth of utility solar, and wind, in the U.S.:
« Last Edit: December 07, 2016, 07:28:12 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #898 on: December 12, 2016, 02:28:45 AM »
"Right, it’s hard for Congress to simply abolish the EPA or rewrite the Clean Air Act — that would face a potential filibuster. But it’s far more plausible that we might see the House pass a thousand different riders that change the agency significantly. The GOP House has been trying to pass a bunch of these since 2011."

If Trump wants to dismantle Obama’s EPA rules, here are all the obstacles he’ll face
So what would it actually take for a Trump administration to repeal Obama’s climate and pollution rules?

Jody Freeman, a Harvard law school professor and former climate adviser to Obama, has been looking at this question extensively. Her view is that this won’t actually be easy for Trump — at least not without substantial help from Congress. (Republicans will control Congress next year, and they’d certainly like to dismantle Obama’s climate rules; yet Senate Democrats have also vowed to filibuster any major changes to the Clean Air Act, the source of the EPA’s authority over greenhouse gas emissions.)
http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2016/12/7/13855470/donald-trump-epa-climate-regulations
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SteveMDFP

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #899 on: December 12, 2016, 01:57:30 PM »
"Right, it’s hard for Congress to simply abolish the EPA or rewrite the Clean Air Act — that would face a potential filibuster. But it’s far more plausible that we might see the House pass a thousand different riders that change the agency significantly. The GOP House has been trying to pass a bunch of these since 2011."

If Trump wants to dismantle Obama’s EPA rules, here are all the obstacles he’ll face
So what would it actually take for a Trump administration to repeal Obama’s climate and pollution rules?

Jody Freeman, a Harvard law school professor and former climate adviser to Obama, has been looking at this question extensively. Her view is that this won’t actually be easy for Trump — at least not without substantial help from Congress. (Republicans will control Congress next year, and they’d certainly like to dismantle Obama’s climate rules; yet Senate Democrats have also vowed to filibuster any major changes to the Clean Air Act, the source of the EPA’s authority over greenhouse gas emissions.)
http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2016/12/7/13855470/donald-trump-epa-climate-regulations


I think it's plausible that the Senate Republicans might just do away with the filibuster privilege.  They can do so at any time.  This would remove all major power of the minority Democrats to obstruct anything.  It's slightly risky for them, but they may see the next two years as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pass and repeal everything they've ever wanted.  If the Democrats don't limit their filibusters to the very most strategic issues, the Republicans are sure to do this to emasculate the Dems.