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Author Topic: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond  (Read 141132 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #900 on: December 20, 2016, 11:12:29 PM »
Obama reminded us some time ago that he intended to act as president right up to the inauguration....

From the Arctic Drilling and Shipping thread:

Obama takes new action to ban Arctic drilling
Looking to cement his environmental record, President Barack Obama took new action Tuesday barring offshore drilling in areas of the Arctic and Atlantic oceans indefinitely.

Obama relied on a 63-year-old law to make his moves, which will prevent future leasing of certain offshore areas for oil rights. His successor, Donald Trump, who has promised a policy allowing more US energy production, would face legal challenges if he attempted to reverse Obama's order.

The White House said Obama was declaring the entire US portion of the Chukchi sea and the vast majority of the Beaufort Sea "indefinitely off limits for future oil and gas leasing," citing critical protection for the marine mammals, ecological resources and native populations.

Canada also announced Tuesday that it will freeze its offshore oil and gas exploration in its Arctic waters.

The US is also declaring 31 canyons off the Atlantic coast off-limits for drilling, citing "critical and irreplaceable ecological value."
http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/20/politics/arctic-drilling-ban-obama-trump/index.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #901 on: December 22, 2016, 06:09:35 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Brazil's plan to roll back environment laws draws fire: 'The danger is real'".  This is but one example of the numerous countries (including: Canada, Australia & Team Trump) that may shortly enact policies that will make it impossible for them to meet their Paris goals.  Also, I note that Trump is very supportive of the Keystone XL pipeline.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/brazil-environment-laws-indigenous-people


Extract: "Environmental and indigenous activists condemn plan they say would threaten indigenous territories and make compliance with Paris deal impossible".
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #902 on: December 22, 2016, 08:45:00 PM »
India plans nearly 60% of electricity capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2027
Expansion of solar and wind power will help exceed Paris targets by almost half and negate need for new coal-fired power stations
The Indian government has forecast that it will exceed the renewable energy targets set in Paris last year by nearly half and three years ahead of schedule.

A draft 10-year energy blueprint published this week predicts that 57% of India’s total electricity capacity will come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2027. The Paris climate accord target was 40% by 2030.

The forecast reflects an increase in private sector investment in Indian renewable energy projects over the past year, according to analysts.

The draft national electricity plan also indicated that no new coal-fired power stations were likely to be required to meet Indian energy needs until at least 2027, raising further doubts over the viability of Indian mining investments overseas, such as the energy company Adani’s Carmichael mine in Queensland, the largest coalmine planned to be built in Australia.

India’s energy minister, Piyush Goyal, has been appealing to wealthier nations to provide capital to invest in renewable energy projects to help the country reach and exceed the targets agreed in Paris in November 2015.
...
About 50GW of coal power projects being developed in India would be “largely stranded” under the forecast, Buckley said, with official modelling showing that “none of these plants are required before 2022 and only possible before 2027”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/21/india-renewable-energy-paris-climate-summit-target
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #903 on: December 27, 2016, 06:48:40 PM »
NYT weighs in on the U.S. states taking up clean energy despite the Trump administration.

States Will Lead on Climate Change in the Trump Era
State governments will serve as an important bulwark against any attempt by President-elect Donald Trump to roll back the progress the United States has made in addressing climate change. And that’s good news for the planet.

Over the last decade or so, most states have reduced their greenhouse gas emissions by promoting energy efficiency and renewable fuels. These trends should continue as clean energy costs continue to decline and, in some parts of the country, fall below the cost of dirtier fuels like coal.

The Brookings Institution reported this month that between 2000 and 2014, 33 states and the District of Columbia cut carbon emissions while expanding their economies. That list includes red states run by Republican legislatures, like Alaska, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virginia. ...
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/26/opinion/states-will-lead-on-climate-change-in-the-trump-era.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #904 on: December 27, 2016, 06:59:55 PM »
Breaking down Canada's long-awaited climate action plan
Before Canadians head off to enjoy eggnog and holiday cheer, we wanted to provide some additional context to the federal climate action plan (the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change) released on December 9 in Ottawa.
 
This is a major milestone in Canada's history. For the first time, Canada has built the foundation of an effective national climate plan that, if fully implemented, would put the country within striking distance of meeting our 2030 greenhouse gas target. This is a huge step for Canada's response to climate change, but our country must strive to do better.

Why? First, we have the weakest 2030 emissions target of any G7 country, and the national plan is still shy of meeting Canada's Paris commitment. In addition, recent pipeline approvals threaten to slow progress. Clearly, more effort is needed in 2017. But, despite the shortcomings, it is worth celebrating this milestone. This achievement is the result of millions of Canadians making their voices heard in Ottawa....

http://www.davidsuzuki.org/blogs/climate-blog/2016/12/breaking-down-canadas-long-awaited-climate-action-plan/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #905 on: January 05, 2017, 04:29:20 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Renewables investment in UK will fall 95% over next three years – study", and indicates that the UK may not meet their Paris Pact pledge:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/04/renewables-investment-uk-fall-95-percent-three-years-study-subsidy-cuts-emissions-targets

Extract: "Analysis reveals extent of decline because of subsidy cuts and raises concerns about Britain meeting emissions targets".
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #906 on: January 08, 2017, 04:37:54 PM »
UNFCCC:  Annual clean energy investments must triple to $1.25 trillion to reach #SDG7 on #energy by 2030...  @WorldBank
https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/818055474310422528

World Bank report:  Global Tracking Framework 2015
http://trackingenergy4all.worldbank.org/reports


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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #907 on: January 09, 2017, 05:04:49 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "One Year from Today, We'll Have Blown the World's Entire Carbon Budget".  This article claims to be referring the least optimistic calculations; but this statement likely ESLD.

https://www.fastcoexist.com/3066994/one-year-from-today-well-have-blown-the-worlds-entire-carbon-budget
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logicmanPatrick

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #908 on: January 13, 2017, 11:30:52 AM »
Trump's 'open mind' claim is still being repeated by media.

In fact, his so-called open mind is subject to financial considerations, as also Jim (snowball) Inhofe.

Shameless plug alert!
http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/psst_wanna_buy_some_truth-221044
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #909 on: January 13, 2017, 05:32:55 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Rex Tillerson Says He Believes in Climate Change — but That May Not Mean Much".  The article indicates that Tillerson recommends retaining a seat within the IPCC UN framework, and that he questions scientists' ability to project future global warming.  While denialists pretend that science's current limitations on making definitive projections on a region by region (and season by season & year by year) basis this century gives them the right to ignore climate science; the truth is that science's limited ability to fully project future climate change is a tremendous danger to our socio-economic, and Earth, systems and we definitely should prepare for upper bound climate cases that the IPCC's AR5 do not even address.

http://time.com/4631614/rex-tillerson-climate-change-paris-agreement/

Extract: "Tillerson questioned scientists’ ability to project future global warming calling that capability “very limited.”"

p.s.: I have limited understanding (i.e. I do not have a paper trail) that NOAA was considering requiring Louisiana to consider up to 4m of eustatic sea level rise by 2100 as an upper bound case, but that they lacked the confidence to address the negative reaction to establishing such an upper bound so they tabled the matter.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2017, 06:09:27 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #910 on: January 18, 2017, 12:13:06 AM »
In last days, Obama Administration transfers $500 million to UN climate action fund
The announcement is expected to prompt a backlash.
The State Department announced Tuesday it would transfer $500 million to the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund (GCF), likely irking Republican lawmakers while keeping what commitments it can to the international community before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Friday.

“The Green Climate Fund is a critical tool that helps catalyze billions of dollars in public and private investment, in countries dealing not only with the challenges of climate change, but the immense economic opportunities that are embedded in the transition to a lower-carbon economy,” a spokesman said....
https://thinkprogress.org/500-million-to-gcf-306414ccc909
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #911 on: January 21, 2017, 05:19:33 PM »
If California were a country, it would be the world's fourteenth largest source of CO2 emissions.

California Undercuts Trump's Inauguration With Aggressive Carbon Reduction Plan
For the last decade, California has enacted a number of measures — everything from a cap-and-trade program to renewable portfolio standards to more fuel efficient vehicles. It’s also heavily involved in water conversation, battery storage and energy efficiency.

Under the plan announced Friday, the emissions trading program would continue through 2030 — a measure that the state considers its most cost effective carbon strategy. To that end, $3.4 billion in cap-and-trade funds have been invested in climate technologies. Meanwhile, the state could also require oil and gas refineries to reduce their heat trapping emissions by 20 percent, and there would be a focus on near zero-emission vehicle technologies.

Okay, so how does California’s aggressive climate change action plan jibe with what is expected to be a “loose” federal carbon strategy? The answer, of course, has multiple layers with one of them involving states rights versus federal oversight.

In the past, Republicans have favored using the states as the testing grounds for new ideas and even those that may run counter to what the central government is espousing. While California’s strategy to achieve carbon cuts is multifaceted, some parts of it — such as setting emissions standards on vehicles — would need federal approval. Ironically, during his U.S. Senate confirmation hearing, Scott Pruitt — designee to fill the role EPA administrator — was ambivalent as to whether he would favor such rights with regard to setting vehicle emissions standards.

Carbon emissions from power plants is a different matter and dependent on the ultimate fate of the Clean Power Plan that requires 32% cuts by 2030 from 2005 levels. Right now, that’s being reviewed by a U.S. district court that is expected to give it the thumb’s up. It would then head to the U.S. Supreme Court that right now is evenly split on the issue. Trump will pick the tie-breaking vote.*
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2017/01/21/california-undercuts-trumps-debut-with-aggressive-carbon-cutting-plan/

*And if a new Supreme Court justice hasn't been seated, a tie vote would mean the decision will fall back to the lower court's decree.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #912 on: January 23, 2017, 08:36:05 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "There's More Than One Way to Blow Up the Paris Climate Deal"

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/01/trump-tillerson-paris-climate-deal

Extract: "The Trump administration could throw a "hand grenade" into global warming negotiations."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #913 on: January 27, 2017, 12:14:25 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "There's More Than One Way to Blow Up the Paris Climate Deal"

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/01/trump-tillerson-paris-climate-deal

Extract: "The Trump administration could throw a "hand grenade" into global warming negotiations."


Coming soon, apparently:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-executive-actions-targeting-international-treaties/story?id=45051443

Once the Paris treaty is targeted by the review, it could easily be put up for vote by the Senate. There's no chance in hell it will make the 2/3 vote necessary for approval (with a negative recommendation from the president), sinking our participation it it permanently. The Supreme Court will hold up domestic law against international law, so don't expect that to save it.

This is -- and continues to be one of the two major Achilles heel to the accord.

In this case, it's a double whammy. Once the treaty goes, Dems lose the INDC justification for keeping the CPP in place.

Both the Accord and the CPP could fall apart pretty damn fast. We'll have to see how this goes, but already targeting the UN isn't a great sign.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #914 on: January 30, 2017, 09:29:43 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Environmentalists Are the "Greatest Threat to Freedom," Says Trump Adviser", and it indicates that Myron Ebell believes that the Trump Administration will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/01/myron-ebell-paris-climate-agreement

Extract: "Myron Ebell says he expects Trump to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement.

Ebell, who has returned to his role at the anti-regulation think tank the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said on Monday: "The environmental movement is, in my view, the greatest threat to freedom and prosperity in the modern world."
The CEI does not disclose its funders but has in the past received money from the oil giant ExxonMobil. "Our special interest is, I would say, freedom," Ebell said.

Scott Pruitt, Donald Trump's pick to lead the EPA, is a climate change skeptic and has sued the agency he is now set to lead 14 times over its regulations on smog, mercury, and other pollution. His confirmation vote in the Senate is expected on Wednesday."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #915 on: January 30, 2017, 11:57:58 PM »
The linked reference uses ESLD assumptions to indicate that it is not likely that we will stay below the Paris Agreements goal of staying below a 2C GMSTA increase:

Glen P. Peters, et. al. (2017), "Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3202

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3202.html

Extract: "Current emission pledges to the Paris Agreement appear insufficient to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels1. Yet, details are missing on how to track progress towards the ‘Paris goal’, inform the five-yearly ‘global stocktake', and increase the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). We develop a nested structure of key indicators to track progress through time. Global emissions track aggregated progress, country-level decompositions track emerging trends that link directly to NDCs, and technology diffusion indicates future reductions. We find the recent slowdown in global emissions growth is due to reduced growth in coal use since 2011, primarily in China and secondarily in the United States. The slowdown is projected to continue in 2016, with global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry similar to the 2015 level of 36 GtCO2. Explosive and policy-driven growth in wind and solar has contributed to the global emissions slowdown, but has been less important than economic factors and energy efficiency. We show that many key indicators are currently broadly consistent with emission scenarios that keep temperatures below 2 °C, but the continued lack of large-scale carbon capture and storage threatens 2030 targets and the longer-term Paris ambition of net-zero emissions."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #916 on: February 04, 2017, 05:32:36 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Renewables can't deliver Paris climate goals", hopefully policy makers will take actions to keep fossil fuels in the ground; however, I suspect that they prefer to pretend that geoengineering will prove to be a "magic bullet" to solve all the problems created by their inaction.

http://www.news24.com/Green/News/renewables-cant-deliver-paris-climate-goals-20170131

Extract: "Market momentum alone is not enough, Peters added.
"There need to be a shift in focus," he said in an email exchange.

"Politician seem happy to support wind, solar and electric vehicles through subsidies. But they are not willing to put prices" - a carbon tax, for example - "on fossil fuels."

"Unless the emissions from fossil fuels goes down, the 2°C target is an impossibility.""
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #917 on: February 23, 2017, 08:09:47 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Senate Mulls ‘Kill Switch’ for Obama Methane Rule".  Even if Team Trump does not withdraw the US from the Paris Pact, so long as Congress kills any possibility of the US meeting its commitments to the agreement:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/senate-kill-switch-obama-methane-rule-21184

Extract: "The U.S. Senate is expected to vote soon on whether to use the Congressional Review Act to kill an Obama administration climate regulation that cuts methane emissions from oil and gas wells on federal land. The rule was designed to reduce oil and gas wells’ contribution to climate change and to stop energy companies from wasting natural gas.

The Congressional Review Act is rarely invoked. It was used this month to reverse a regulation for the first time in 16 years and it’s a particularly lethal way to kill a regulation as it would take an act of Congress to approve a similar regulation. Federal agencies cannot propose similar regulations on their own."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #918 on: February 26, 2017, 04:08:48 AM »
The linked reference discusses how to better present new information to people, including COP21 climate negotiators, so that they accept new projections:

Valentina Bosetti, Elke Weber, Loïc Berger, David V. Budescu, Ning Liu & Massimo Tavoni (2017), “COP21 climate negotiators’ responses to climate model forecasts”, Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3208

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3208.html

Abstract: “Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group1. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models’ forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports2, 3. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models’ forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #919 on: March 01, 2017, 01:56:03 AM »
Zeke Hausfather:  Updating a classic mitigation trajectory analysis through 2016. Good news is emissions have plateaued but the rapid decline is the hard part
https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/836619321765842944
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #920 on: March 14, 2017, 05:54:21 PM »
The linked reference indicates that the diffusion of green technology needs through the economic landscape needs to accelerate 10-times faster than the historical trend line just to stay in line with the assumptions of the Paris Agreement.

Gabriele Manoli, Gabriel G. Katul & Marco Marani (29 December 2016), "Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical time-scales to meet global warming targets", Earth's Future, DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000431

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000431/full

Extract: "While climate science debates are focused on the attainment of peak anthropogenic CO2 emissions and policy tools to reduce peak temperatures, the human-energy-climate system can hold “rebound” surprises beyond this peak. Following the second industrial revolution, global per capita CO2 emissions (cc) experienced a punctuated growth of about 100% every 60 years, mainly attributable to technological development and its global spread. A model of the human-energy-climate system capable of reproducing past punctuated dynamics shows that rebounds in global CO2 emissions emerge due to delays intrinsic to the diffusion of innovations. Such intrinsic delays in the adoption and spread of low-carbon emitting technologies, together with projected population growth, upset the warming target set by the Paris Agreement. To avoid rebounds and their negative climate effects, model calculations show that the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies must occur with lags one-order of magnitude shorter (i.e., ∼6 years) than the characteristic timescale of past punctuated growth in cc. Radically new strategies to globally implement the technological advances at unprecedented rates are needed if the current emission goals are to be achieved."

Extract: "Gambling on future technological innovations alone to reduce the anthropogenic CO2 emissions [Koningstein and Fork, 2014] is risky and insufficient to avoid unacceptable warming. In fact, accelerating the spread of low-carbon emitting or green technologies is equally necessary to meet the warming targets established by the Paris agreement [Hulme, 2016]. If recent history offers any lessons, it is that diffusion and adoption of green technologies will face known and much discussed challenges. Our quantification of the delays historically associated with such challenges shows that a tenfold acceleration in the spread of green technologies is necessary to elicit some delay in the Doomsday clock [The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board, 2016]"
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #921 on: March 18, 2017, 06:41:41 AM »
The Paris agreement is based on many assumptions that are highly questionable, including:

Climate sensitivity may be higher in our currently warmer climate:
"Currently, our planet is in a warm phase—an interglacial period—and the associated increased climate sensitivity needs to be taken into account for future projections of warming induced by human activities."
at https://phys.org/news/2016-11-climate-sensitive-atmospheric-co2.html

No increases in natural carbon emissions:
"Massive Permafrost thaw documented in Northern Canada" at https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27022017/global-warming-permafrost-study-melt-canada-siberia
"Soils could release much more carbon than expected as climate warms" at https://m.phys.org/news/2017-03-soils-carbon-climate.html
"Warming ponds could accelerate climate change" at https://phys.org/news/2017-02-ponds-climate.html

No ice free Arctic with reduced albedo sucking in the Sun's energy, as covered in other parts of this forum.

The reality is that we most probably should be rapidly cutting emissions toward zero now, as per Kevin Anderson's position. We need a very high carbon price ($200/ton?) and/or individual carbon quotas. Problem is that that would greatly upset the global economy and force a lot of very hard questions.

Trump and his backers are definitely hard climate deniers (denying climate change exists), but the IPCC process may turn out to be one of soft denial (denying the scale and urgency of the challenge). The fact that governments do not seem to be putting in place policies to even meet the Paris agreement says a lot about the social and economic inertia against real actions.

gerontocrat

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #922 on: March 18, 2017, 02:12:57 PM »
I picked up from another thread on ASIF a graph on the  CIMP6 timeline for preparation of forcings, realisation of experiments and analysis.

Basically, collection of data and design preparation is finished by year end ? Analysis to be completed by December 2019. The politicos will consider it in 2022. Always too little, too late ?

The stately progress of the collected conventional wisdom of the world.


rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #923 on: March 19, 2017, 04:52:35 AM »
Wow, the climate is outrunning our ability to gain consensus. Hopefully, Trump wont be there in 2022 at least.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #924 on: March 20, 2017, 06:42:36 PM »
The linked reference provides more guidance on meeting the Paris Agreement, if policy makers have the determination to implement any of the measured evaluated in the study.

Aamaas, B., Berntsen, T. K., Fuglestvedt, J. S., and Peters, G. P.: Combining temperature rate and level perspectives in emission metrics, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2017-25, in review, 2017.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-25/

Abstract. The ultimate goal of the United Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is reconfirmed by the Paris Agreement, is to stabilize the climate change at level that prevents dangerous anthropogenic interference, and it should be achieved within a time frame that allow the natural systems to adapt. Numerous emission metrics have been developed and applied in relation to the first target, while very few metrics have focused on the second target regarding rate of change. We present here a simple and analytical physical emission metric based on the rate of global temperature change and link that to a metric based on a target for the temperature level. The rate of change perspective either can supplement the level target or can be considered together in one commitment that needs one combined metric. Both emission metrics depend on assumptions on a temperature baseline scenario. We give some illustrations on how this framework can be used, such as different temperature rate and level constraints based on the Representative Concentration Pathways. The selection of the time horizon, for what time period and length the rate constraint is binding, and how to weight the rate and level metrics are discussed. For a combined metric, the values for short-lived climate forcers are larger in periods where the critical rate is binding, with larger temporal increases during the rate constraint period as the atmospheric perturbation timescale of the species becomes shorter. Global CO2 emissions remain the most important, or among the most important, drivers of temperature rates even during periods of binding rate constraints.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #925 on: March 21, 2017, 05:12:00 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Budget Proposal Would Hamper Climate Efforts Abroad", and it indicates that even if the Trump Administration does not pull out of the Paris Agreement, the Trump Administrations proposed budget (if approved) would make it harder for other countries to meet their pledges.

http://www.standard.net/Government/2017/03/16/Budget-Proposal-Would-Hamper-Climate-Efforts-Abroad

Extract: "The Trump administration’s budget proposal would hamper efforts abroad to slow global warming, especially by poor and fast-developing countries, compounding the hazards of America’s retreat from efforts to ease its own climate impacts.

A 54-page proposal released Thursday would end payments to global climate initiatives, such as a United Nations fund that helps poor countries deploy clean energy and adapt to climate change. It would also sharply reduce funding for the World Bank and other development programs."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #926 on: March 23, 2017, 01:37:03 AM »
Paris Climate Agreement could be accomplished with the world economy gaining $19 trillion, says report
A new report is out this week examining the feasibility of the Paris Climate Agreement, with recommendations to policymakers as to how it might be accomplished and what effects its adoption would have on the world economy. The study concludes that, in a conservative case, the world could gain .8% GDP in 2050, or $19 trillion cumulatively between now and then. In a more optimistic scenario, the agreement could actually add 2% to global GDP by 2030. In fact, according to the report, “reducing the impact on human health and mitigating climate change would save between two- and six- times more than the costs of decarbonisation.”
...
The report actually states that additional investment in energy supply would not need to significantly exceed current planned levels in order to meet climate targets – but that planned investment would need to go into clean sources, rather than dirty ones.  The additional net total investment required is just .3% of global GDP, as long as there is a balanced decline of fossil fuel investment and increase of low-carbon investment.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/03/22/paris-climate-agreement-economy/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #927 on: March 24, 2017, 09:34:11 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "Could the law driving computing leaps speed up climate protection?"; & the authors indicate that the participants in the Paris Pact should accelerate their rate of carbon emission reductions.

http://www.dw.com/en/could-the-law-driving-computing-leaps-speed-up-climate-protection/a-38072984

Extract: "A new report says the UN's incremental approach to reducing emissions is all wrong. The effort needs to come on strong early - and lessons can be learned from the evolution of computing."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #928 on: March 25, 2017, 08:21:23 PM »
Countries Keep Joining the Paris Climate Agreement
Countries from all corners of the world continue to formally join the Paris Agreement in another sign that international climate action will continue in the Trump-era. Since Trump was elected president, 34 countries have formally joined the Paris Agreement, with 16 countries taking that step since the beginning of 2017. This brings the total number of parties to the Paris Agreement to 137, accounting for over 82 percent of the world’s emissions. ...
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/jake-schmidt/countries-keep-joining-paris-climate-agreement
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Andre

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #929 on: March 26, 2017, 02:05:32 PM »
Scientists made a detailed “roadmap” for meeting the Paris climate goals. It’s eye-opening.

http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/23/15028480/roadmap-paris-climate-goals

Abstract:
They start with the big picture: To hit the Paris climate goals without geoengineering, the world has to do three broad (and incredibly ambitious) things:

1) Global CO2 emissions from energy and industry have to fall in half each decade. That is, in the 2020s, the world cuts emissions in half. Then we do it again in the 2030s. Then we do it again in the 2040s. They dub this a “carbon law.” Lead author Johan Rockström told me they were thinking of an analogy to Moore’s law for transistors; we’ll see why.

2) Net emissions from land use — i.e., from agriculture and deforestation — have to fall steadily to zero by 2050. This would need to happen even as the world population grows and we’re feeding ever more people.

3) Technologies to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere have to start scaling up massively, until we’re artificially pulling 5 gigatons of CO2 per year out of the atmosphere by 2050 — nearly double what all the world’s trees and soils already do.


This is the original study it is based on:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269.full


DrTskoul

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #930 on: March 26, 2017, 02:39:43 PM »
Source: http://www.seia.org/research-resources/development-timeline-utility-scale-solar-power-plant

I think what has been possibly grossly underestimated ( a large proportion of scientists are not at all familiar with industrial mega projects) :

1) timeline from project concept to lights on ( see graphic below )
2) availability of skilled labor - in most developed nations this is a problem right now
3) timeline required to ramp up production (i.e. build new plants) of raw materials for the massive increase of energy projects

“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #931 on: March 26, 2017, 03:47:17 PM »
“Someone should do something. But that someone clearly isn’t going to be the federal government.”

Citizens must hold government accountable on climate
By Bill McKibben
...So who’s going to stand up? The answer, for the moment, is states and cities. On Wednesday, the governors of the West Coast states and the mayors of most of its big cities put out a stirring joint message: “We speak as a region of over 50 million people with a combined GDP of $2.8 trillion. There is no question that to act on climate is to act in our best economic interests. Through expanded climate policies, we have grown jobs and expanded our economies while cleaning our air.” They would, the officials promised, keep at it. They added that they hoped other local and regional leaders would “join us in leading and re-affirming our commitment to cut carbon emissions and reverse the damaging impacts to our communities of unfettered pollution.” ...
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/03/23/citizens-must-hold-government-accountable-climate/g2mCXt9rZZtrfiRZjNOs2O/story.html
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #932 on: March 26, 2017, 10:40:56 PM »
Scientists made a detailed “roadmap” for meeting the Paris climate goals. It’s eye-opening.

http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/23/15028480/roadmap-paris-climate-goals

Abstract:
They start with the big picture: To hit the Paris climate goals without geoengineering, the world has to do three broad (and incredibly ambitious) things:

1) Global CO2 emissions from energy and industry have to fall in half each decade. That is, in the 2020s, the world cuts emissions in half. Then we do it again in the 2030s. Then we do it again in the 2040s. They dub this a “carbon law.” Lead author Johan Rockström told me they were thinking of an analogy to Moore’s law for transistors; we’ll see why.

2) Net emissions from land use — i.e., from agriculture and deforestation — have to fall steadily to zero by 2050. This would need to happen even as the world population grows and we’re feeding ever more people.

3) Technologies to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere have to start scaling up massively, until we’re artificially pulling 5 gigatons of CO2 per year out of the atmosphere by 2050 — nearly double what all the world’s trees and soils already do.


This is the original study it is based on:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269.full



That is the most depressing thing I've read in some time.


When we can't even accept the expressed will of the people of Crimea, we're expected to believe that the resource rich nations will give up half of the value of their assets every ten years to keep things from getting worse fifty years from now?


In the West, long range planning is a freeway that won't open until just before the next election. China does better, they have five year plans.


Is there an example anywhere, at any time, of a nation willingly devaluing her assets now, not for a better tomorrow, but for a future that won't be worst than the present? This isn't planting an orchard to provide peaches for your children. This is plowing under an orchard so that the village's grandchildren will have open space.


Some animal somewhere may be capable of such sacrifice and foresight, but it isn't here, and it isn't human.


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #933 on: March 28, 2017, 12:13:36 AM »
EPA chief Scott Pruitt’s foot stays firmly planted in mouth; doesn’t know India and China signed Paris Climate Agreement
https://electrek.co/2017/03/27/scott-pruitt-epa-paris-agreement-india-china/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.