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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1000 on: May 20, 2017, 06:41:18 AM »
Am I the only one confused by Bob's chart showing CH4 rather than CO2?

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1001 on: May 20, 2017, 04:32:29 PM »
Are we on track to <2°C in 2025?

IEA:  Out of 26 indicators:
* 3 on track
* 15 more efforts needed
* 8 not on track

http://www.iea.org/etp/tracking2017/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1002 on: May 20, 2017, 04:51:01 PM »
Meanwhile, in France:

Two female scientists and a militant environmentalist join Emmanuel Macron’s new government
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/two-female-scientists-and-militant-environmentalist-join-emmanuel-macron-s-new
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1003 on: May 20, 2017, 08:05:09 PM »
From 2015:  Today, we are all slave owners.

JF Mouhot piece on the parallels between slavery and fossil fuels.

Thomas Jefferson and I (Solutions article)
https://jfmouhot.wordpress.com/2015/08/15/thomas-jefferson-and-i-solutions-article/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1004 on: May 21, 2017, 05:42:48 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "How Rollbacks at Scott Pruitt’s E.P.A. Are a Boon to Oil and Gas", & it indicates that some aggressive companies are already increasing fossil fuel production due to the Trump Administration's changes in E.P.A. requirements

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/business/energy-environment/devon-energy.html?_r=0

Extract: "“In any regulated industry, there are companies that are more aggressive than others in pushing back at every turn and trying to stop the policy,” she said. “Devon was one of those.”"
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1005 on: May 21, 2017, 07:37:54 PM »
Am I the only one confused by Bob's chart showing CH4 rather than CO2?

Oops.  I wasn't paying close enough attention to the chart I grabbed.  Sorry.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1006 on: May 21, 2017, 07:55:18 PM »

Post the CH4 chart screwup, let me offer this one that I'm fairly sure shows global CO2 emissions.




Hopefully we now have peak CO2 emissions behind us.  With the big emitting countries (China, the US, EU countries) now on the downturn things look promising.

Right direction. Now step on the accelerator.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1007 on: May 21, 2017, 08:58:48 PM »
Digging into global CO2 emissions a bit further let's look at where emissions are occurring and where they might be growing, or not.




Almost all CO2 emission growth post 1995 has been in Asia.  Very minor growth in a couple of regions, but only Asia stands out.

Then breaking down Asia...



China.  And China seems to have peaked.

India is a much smaller contributor and is growing, but India has a strong solar program, seems to be working at reducing coal use, and is aiming at all EVs by 2030.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1008 on: May 22, 2017, 04:28:43 AM »
I wouldn't be so sure about India, its at a very energy intensive stage of economic development. Its emissions growth has been trending at about 6% a year with rapid economic growth. Will surpass the EU28 by 2020.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1009 on: May 22, 2017, 05:15:41 AM »
Quote
Coal plant cancellations accelerate in India: BGR Energy Systems has cancelled its proposed 1320 MW coal plant at Bhapur in Odisha. Kalinga Energy and Power has also advised the state government it has dropped its 1000 MW project in Sambalpur district which it had suspended in 2014 over delays in land acquisition. An anonymous state government official said the plants were cancelled due to problems getting coal allocations and a shift to increasingly cheaper renewables. The 2400 MW Kamakhyanagar power plant by the Odisha Thermal Power Corporation is also struggling to find a viable source of coal supply.

 (Business Standard, Business Standard)


Quote
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is planning a 210 billion-rupee ($3.1 billion) package of state aid for India’s solar panel manufacturing industry, according to two officials.

Modi wants to raise renewable capacity to 175 GW by 2022 from 45 GW at present.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/10/modi-said-to-plan-3-1-billion-boost-for-india-s-solar-factories.html

Quote
NEW DELHI: The government is working on a scheme to provide electric cars on zero down payment for which people can pay out of their savings on expensive fossil fuels, for becoming 100 per cent electric vehicle nation by 2030.

"India can become the first country of its size which will run 100 per cent of electric vehicles. We are trying to make this programme self financing.

"We are working (on the scheme). Can we actually give electric car for free (zero down payment) and people can pay for that out of the savings on the petroleum products.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/51551706.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Quote
India will get electricity generated by wind-propelled plants installed in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu in about five years as part of the country's green energy development programmes, an energy expert has said.

"We are preparing India for offshore wind (and) providing MNRE a road map for offshore wind for Gujarat and Tamil Nadu," said Mathias Steck, Executive Vice President and Regional Manager at DNV GL, an international renewable energy group.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55151800.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

I suspect India is going get their CO2 emissions topped out fairly soon.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1010 on: May 22, 2017, 05:34:37 AM »
Here's a graph of measured CO2 levels at Mauna Loa from January 2013 through April 2017.

This data has been adjusted (by Scripps) to take out seasonal variation.




As you can see there's a flattening that has happened over the last six months.  I am not saying that CO2 has peaked.  There have been other periods where CO2 levels did not rise for a few months and then resumed climbing.  But it's worth keeping a close eye on for awhile. 

A guy can hope....

wili

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1011 on: May 22, 2017, 05:49:00 AM »
It is certainly worth keeping an eye on, but as a long time watcher of the most recent little snippet of these kinds of long-term graphs, I can tell ya that it's not much to hang your hat on.

We are coming out of an El Nino, after all, when oceans are not absorbing as much CO2, and then they are again. If we were seeing a big acceleration in the rate of CO2 increase in these last few months, that would be some cause for some worry indeed.

Since the consequences are so dire, we are all left to staring at the most recent data and trying to discern trends from as yet incomplete data...like Damocles watching for signs that the single horse hair suspending the huge sword above his seat may be about to break...or not...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1012 on: May 22, 2017, 05:57:28 AM »
I spent a lot of my research career watching data streams.  I've learned that when slopes start to change it's a good time to pay attention.

And, in this case, we're seeing global CO2 emissions flattening.  So at some point, ENSO events considered, we should expect a flattening of ppm at Mauna Loa. 

wili

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1013 on: May 22, 2017, 06:38:33 AM »
I do like your generally sunny disposition :)

But as someone pointed out in another thread, to stay within the less-than-2C-above-pre-industrial level (or at least have a 50-50 chance of doing so), we had to keep CO2eq to below 450ppm. We blew past that and are now at about 485ppm.

So, yeah, it would be nice if we didn't get way further off the sustainable climate tracks than we already are, but...I guess today my role is to curb enthusiasm, it seems.  :-\

http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/emissions-target-report.pdf

See the bolded section on first page of executive summary, and the explanatory text just above. At 500 ppm CO2eq, which we will almost certainly reach within the next very few years, we will  have 2/3 chance of exceeding 2C and 50-50 chance of hitting 3C above pre-industrial temps.

At this point we have to not only hope that your perceived plateau materializes, but that it turns into a fairly precipitous drop quite soon...in time to avoid the many and large and fast exacerbating feedbacks that are waiting in the wings, if they have not already started to kick in.

(Or that heretofore unexpected and unknown 'negative' damping feedback of even greater size and speed suddenly kick in from out of nowhere and help save our sorry a$$es in spite of ourselves and beyond what we deserve.)

That's a lot of hopin'! :)  :-\

ETA: Actually, I see that robertscribbler has estimate CO2e levels for 2017 to be at around 493ppm:

Quote
Add in methane and other greenhouse gasses and you end up with a heat forcing roughly equivalent to 493 parts per million of CO2 (CO2e) during 2017 at present rates of increase.

 This level is very close to the maximum Miocene boundary level of 500 parts per million — a total amount of heat forcing that likely hasn’t been seen in 20-30 million years.

https://robertscribbler.com/2017/04/26/key-heat-trapping-gas-crosses-410-parts-per-million-threshold-highest-level-in-past-5-20-million-years/

This article links to NOAA figures that put CO2e levels at 485ppm back in 2015...so I guess I was off by a few years and a few parts per million above...my brain, as usual, is stuck in the past  :-[

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-05-02/why-greenhouse-gas-emissions-did-not-really-stabilize-in-the-past-few-years/

If others have current reliable figures for these numbers, please do share, with links! Thanks.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2017, 07:05:15 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1014 on: May 22, 2017, 06:53:10 AM »
There's little I can personally do to keep CO2 levels from rising a lot more.  My application for Global Dictator was rejected.

What I think I can do is to help people identify ways to cut CO2/GHG emissions and give them encouraging news.  If we celebrate small victories it's more likely that we will keep working and not give up in despair.

(Sunny is not my disposition....)

wili

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1015 on: May 22, 2017, 07:17:06 AM »
Yeah, I do that in various fora. But this forum seems to be about the best and most accurate information, wherever that leads. (Unless neven and all the others here have actually been skewing the figures on Arctic Sea Ice Melt all these years to spare us the despair, and things are actually much, much worse than all the figures and graphs and maps they present here...if so...yikes!!)

Here's the NOAA link I mentioned: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

And here's the relevant graph:


"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1016 on: May 22, 2017, 07:37:11 AM »
Here's a graph of measured CO2 levels at Mauna Loa from January 2013 through April 2017.

This data has been adjusted (by Scripps) to take out seasonal variation.




As you can see there's a flattening that has happened over the last six months.  I am not saying that CO2 has peaked.  There have been other periods where CO2 levels did not rise for a few months and then resumed climbing.  But it's worth keeping a close eye on for awhile. 

A guy can hope....
To be honest, this graph is not showing a flattening but a reverting from above-trend to trend. Still better than nothing of course.
But in general do keep up with focusing on the optimistic side. The main health effect of climate change (and many other long-term trends) is depression, and good news tend to get lost in that.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1017 on: May 22, 2017, 07:53:20 AM »
I'm just not seeing much trend here...

Oct   2016   405.11
Nov   2016   405.91
Dec   2016   405.49
Jan   2017   406.04
Feb   2017   405.90
Mar   2017   405.50
Apr   2017   406.14

Maybe a flat trend.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1018 on: May 23, 2017, 04:14:04 AM »
Atmospheric CO2 numbers:

There are too many different variables that affect month to month numbers (El Nino, PDO etc.) for any short term variations to be accepted as any more than noise. The Mauna Loa numbers are open to even greater levels of noise as they are a measurement taken at a single point. Bob, the Mauna Loa numbers you are using correct for seasonality but not for the other variables. With a fading El Nino / possible returning El Nino and possible PDO changes, it makes the monthly numbers very problematic. That's why the monthly, and especially yearly, global numbers are better used for trend analysis.

Anthropogenic global CO2 emissions would have to fall by at least 50% to stop the atmospheric CO2 numbers from rising, as they may then be balanced by sinks. Until then, the numbers will keep rising, perhaps at a slower rate as emissions fall (hoping that natural emissions don't pick up as temperature rises).

At the global level CO2 concentrations have increased by 2ppm or more, except for a single year, since the start of this decade. The 2017 global increase would be expected to be below 2015 and 2016 (2.96 and 2.90 respectively, years affected by a large El Nino) although that is still open to question give the state of the ENSO and PDO etc.

Good discussion over on the ENSO topic showing the volatility over the past 6 months.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2017, 04:22:59 AM by rboyd »

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1019 on: May 23, 2017, 08:34:50 AM »
Quote
Anthropogenic global CO2 emissions would have to fall by at least 50% to stop the atmospheric CO2 numbers from rising

That's something that I knew but for some reason was not thinking clearly. Obviously it will take more than a small slowdown in emissions to make a noticeable drop in atmospheric CO2 levels.  Senior moment, I suppose....

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1020 on: May 23, 2017, 08:50:46 PM »
May 22, 2017.  "Dear @ElonMusk, you have @POTUS' ear. Will you reach out directly with some #ParisClimateAdvice and tell him to stay in the accord?."

Elon Musk:  "I spoke directly with The President three weeks ago about Paris. Many others have too. Cautiously optimistic of a positive decision."

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/866798148303200256


Just need a pro-climate person to be the last one the president hears from before making a decision....
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1021 on: May 23, 2017, 09:55:50 PM »
Bob, very much understand the senior moments!

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1022 on: May 27, 2017, 08:21:52 PM »
G7 countries to U.S.:  :P

G7 leaders blame US for failure to reach climate change agreement in unusually frank statement
Quote
In an unusual admission, Group of Seven (G7) leaders have said in their final communique from a summit in Italy that they had failed to bridge differences over climate change with US President Donald Trump - and America was unable to join other countries in committing to the Paris Agreement.

“The United States of America is in the process of reviewing its policies on climate change and on the Paris Agreement and thus is not in a position to join the consensus on these topics,” the communique read.

“Understanding this process, the heads of state and of government of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom and the presidents of the European Council and of the European Commission reaffirm their strong commitment to swiftly implement the Paris Agreement,” it added.
...
Under pressure from allies, Mr Trump backed a pledge to fight protectionism, but refused to endorse the global Paris climate change accord, saying he needed more time to decide, with European diplomats frustrated at having to revisit questions they hoped were long settled.

Mr Trump, who has previously called global warming a hoax, tweeted that he would make a decision next week on whether to back the 2015 Paris Agreement on curbing carbon emissions following lengthy discussions with G7 partners.

“The entire discussion about climate was very difficult, if not to say very dissatisfying,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. “There are no indications whether the United States will stay in the Paris Agreement or not.”
...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-g7-summit-latest-climate-change-consensus-paris-agreement-angela-merkel-a7759231.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1023 on: May 28, 2017, 12:30:30 AM »
 Keep those pro-climate folks talking to the president until he makes a decision!

Top Trump aide: Coal doesn't make 'much sense anymore'
Quote
"Coal doesn't even make that much sense anymore as a feedstock," Gary Cohn said, aboard Air Force One on Thursday, referring to raw materials that get converted into a fuel.

Cohn, who serves as director of the White House National Economic Council, instead praised natural gas as "such a cleaner fuel" -- and one that America has become an "abundant producer of."

While Trump rarely talks up the potential of renewable energy, Cohn sounds like a fan.

"If you think about how solar and how much wind power we've created in the United States, we can be a manufacturing powerhouse and still be environmentally friendly," Cohn said.
...
The White House didn't respond to questions about whether Cohn's remarks signal a shift in Trump's energy and environmental policies.

Cohn's words are especially significant, because Trump is expected to soon decide whether to keep the U.S. in the Paris climate accord, which is forcing governments in many countries to crack down on the carbon emissions from coal and other fossil fuels. World leaders, Democrats and some major companies have urged Trump not to ditch the landmark deal that represents the most significant effort to date to combat climate change.
...
http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/26/investing/trump-cohn-coal-paris-climate-deal/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1024 on: May 28, 2017, 01:08:12 AM »
Donald Trump:  I will make my final decision on the Paris Accord next week!

8:17 AM · May 27, 2017 from Taormina, Sicily
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/868441116726710272
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1025 on: May 28, 2017, 01:19:37 AM »
Los Angeles says it will stay in the Paris climate agreement it isn't in. ;)

The Mayor of Los Angeles Says His City Will Stay in the Paris Climate Agreement Even If the US Won't
Quote
...
So the non-state actors are kind of doing it on their own. Lobbyists from entrenched petrochemical countries don’t drown cities in money they way they do national-level politicians, and cities don’t get as much money directly from the federal government as they used to. On a district-by-district voting map, cities are typically blue islands amid seas of exurban and rural red. And cities, especially coastal cities, are already seeing the consequences of shifting weather patterns and rising seas. All that gives mayors political coverage to take action. “If you start looking at the non-state actor space in general, there are some people saying we might meet our Nationally Determined Contribution of 26 to 28 percent reduction by 2025,” Schultz says. “If you add up all the action that’s already taking place by cities and states and counties in the US, we are probably well on our way.”
...
https://www.wired.com/2017/05/cities-cant-sign-treaties-can-still-fight-climate-change/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1026 on: May 28, 2017, 01:26:42 AM »
“However, White House officials said Friday the president’s views of climate change are ‘evolving’ after listening to other world leaders’ opinions on the issue.”

U.S. is only holdout on Paris climate pledge at G7 summit
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/335405-us-is-g7-only-holdout-on-paris-climate-pledge
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1027 on: May 28, 2017, 07:05:06 AM »
In a weird sort of way, the blatant denial of the Trump people is better than the hidden denial and intentional scientific confusion that we had previously. It helps brings climate change to the table as a major issue, and gets people to be less confused.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1028 on: May 28, 2017, 07:15:57 PM »
Quote
EU official readout on climate refers to agreement by the "G6".

The fact that "G6" is now a thing shows just how far US has been sidelined.
https://twitter.com/jonathangaventa/status/868510746048696320


..."While the US is in the process of reviewing its policies on climate change, Presidents Juncker and Tusk and the leaders of the G6 reaffirmed their strong commitment to swiftly implement the Paris Agreement."... https://ec.europa.eu/commission/news/president-juncker-g7-summit-taormina_en
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Hefaistos

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1029 on: May 28, 2017, 07:44:27 PM »
Used to be G8, then Russia was suspended
Now, Trump is the spielverderber and we got only six left.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1030 on: May 28, 2017, 08:04:37 PM »
The developed, well-functioning countries of the world should send the US a get well card.

"Sorry that you're going through a rough patch.  It happens to most of us from time to time. 

Looking forward to your recovery and your return to a place at the grownups table."

Might want to send one to the UK as well....

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1031 on: May 29, 2017, 01:16:45 AM »
Yeah, I do that in various fora. But this forum seems to be about the best and most accurate information, wherever that leads. (Unless neven and all the others here have actually been skewing the figures on Arctic Sea Ice Melt all these years to spare us the despair, and things are actually much, much worse than all the figures and graphs and maps they present here...if so...yikes!!)

Here's the NOAA link I mentioned: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

The linked NOAA website entitled: "THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI)" was updated in Spring of 2017 with GHG data through the end of 2016 (see the attached images).  I note that if one assumes that the GWP100 for methane is 35 instead of 25 (per AR5), then NOAA's calculated value for the CO2-eq for 2016 would be 521ppm instead of 489ppm; which is a big difference, and one that NOAA should publically acknowledge.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

 Global Radiative Forcing, CO2-equivalent mixing ratio, and the AGGI
                         Global Radiative Forcing (W m-2)           CO2-eq
                                                                                     (ppm)        AGGI
Year     CO2     CH4    N2O   CFC12 CFC11 15-minor  Total Total   1990 = 1   %change

2013   1.882  0.496   0.184   0.167   0.059   0.114  2.901   478      1.340        2.0
2014   1.908  0.499   0.187   0.166   0.058   0.116  2.935   481      1.356        1.6
2015   1.939  0.504   0.190   0.165   0.058   0.118  2.974   485      1.374        1.8
2016   1.985  0.507   0.193   0.164   0.057   0.121  3.027   489      1.399        2.5

CH4   ΔF = β(M½ - Mo½) - [f(M,No) - f(Mo,No)]   β = 0.036
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 04:12:59 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1032 on: May 29, 2017, 01:51:19 AM »
The linked Joe Romm article is entitled: "Trump will reportedly exit Paris climate deal, making us a rogue nation", and it speculates that if (as rumored) Trump pulls the USA out of the Paris climate agreement; then this would likely serve as an excuse for other countries like Russia to refuse to ratify the agreement:

https://thinkprogress.org/first-paris-then-putin-b665fbc1ce31

Extract: "But Trump can pull out of Paris, an agreement Putin has never liked, because it means a large fraction of Russia’s fossil fuel reserves would remain in the ground, unable to provide vast revenue for him and the Kremlin. Unsurprisingly, Putin’s greenhouse gas target “is one of the weakest put forward by any government, anywhere,” as Climate Action Tracker explains. It “lies significantly above emissions that would result from current policies.”

As of May 14, the U.N. reports Russia still hasn’t ratified the deal — and Russia has said it won’t until 2019 or 2020 at the earliest. If the president of the second-largest emitter exits Paris, then the fifth-largest emitter will have a great excuse to opt out, too. Together they could deal a fatal blow to the ongoing negotiating process."
« Last Edit: May 29, 2017, 04:10:20 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1033 on: May 29, 2017, 04:54:59 AM »
The linked Joe Romm article is entitled: "Trump will reportedly exit Paris climate deal, making us a rogue nation", and it speculates that if (as rumored) Trump pulls the USA out of the Paris climate agreement; then this would like serve as an excuse for other countries like Russia to refuse to ratify the agreement:

https://thinkprogress.org/first-paris-then-putin-b665fbc1ce31

Extract: "But Trump can pull out of Paris, an agreement Putin has never liked, because it means a large fraction of Russia’s fossil fuel reserves would remain in the ground, unable to provide vast revenue for him and the Kremlin. Unsurprisingly, Putin’s greenhouse gas target “is one of the weakest put forward by any government, anywhere,” as Climate Action Tracker explains. It “lies significantly above emissions that would result from current policies.”

As of May 14, the U.N. reports Russia still hasn’t ratified the deal — and Russia has said it won’t until 2019 or 2020 at the earliest. If the president of the second-largest emitter exits Paris, then the fifth-largest emitter will have a great excuse to opt out, too. Together they could deal a fatal blow to the ongoing negotiating process."

Trump doesn't know from hour to hour what he is going to do.  And most of the stuff he's tried to do has been blocked.  Let's not get too worried about the Paris Accord at this point in time.

It looks like Trump is going to have his hands full trying to keep his son in law out of jail and himself from being impeached.  I expect he will be equally successful with those endeavors as he has been with his other presidential actions.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1034 on: May 29, 2017, 04:10:57 PM »
The linked article indicates that Greenpeace has discovered documents indicating that the UK tried to make EU GHG emission policies voluntary rather than mandatory.  More news that alt-right populists are bad for the fight against climate change:

"Theresa May accused of being ‘Donald Trump’s mole’ in Europe after UK tries to water down EU climate change policy"

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/theresa-may-donald-trump-mole-eu-europe-climate-change-greenpeace-leaked-documents-a7761236.html

Extract: "Leaked documents show UK wanted to change EU targets on energy efficiency and renewable energy that would not apply until after the expected date for Brexit."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1035 on: May 29, 2017, 06:01:11 PM »
Hopefully this has an impact on the UK election next week!

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1036 on: May 29, 2017, 09:20:42 PM »
Hopefully this has an impact on the UK election next week!

Hopefully the sensible UK voters will show up this time and get things back on path.  The UK racists need to be outvoted.


TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1037 on: May 29, 2017, 09:33:41 PM »
Hopefully this has an impact on the UK election next week!

Hopefully the sensible UK voters will show up this time and get things back on path.  The UK racists need to be outvoted.


According to the former Ambassador of Belgium to Canada, the Brits gripe with EU immigration has to do with impoverished Polish migrants.
Are the Polish a different race than the Brits?


Terry

wili

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1038 on: May 29, 2017, 09:39:06 PM »
Race, as it is expressed in racism, is almost always mostly a construct.

In the US, when they first started immigrating here in large numbers, such obviously White Europeans as Irish, Italians, Finns, and some others weren't really considered fully 'White.'

Did you expect racism to be strictly logical in some way?  :)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1039 on: May 29, 2017, 09:43:55 PM »
Race, as it is expressed in racism, is almost always mostly a construct.

In the US, when they first started immigrating here in large numbers, such obviously White Europeans as Irish, Italians, Finns, and some others weren't really considered fully 'White.'

Did you expect racism to be strictly logical in some way?  :)


Quote
As the historian Noel Ignatiev has famously observed, the Irish in America had to become white; upon their arrival they were viewed as representatives of not merely a different nationality but a different—and inferior—race. Anti-Irish American cartoonists like Thomas Nast drew Irishmen using the exact same racist stereotypes they applied to African-Americans; like blacks, the Irish were depicted as subhuman monkeys. Decades later, after the Irish had "become white," a new generation of immigrants from Eastern and Southern Europe would be subjected to the same dehumanizing, race-based stereotyping.

http://www.shmoop.com/early-american-immigration/race.html



wili

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1040 on: May 29, 2017, 09:54:11 PM »
Good find, Bob.

And rather obviously, anyone from Southern India or any Aboriginal Australian who happened to find themselves in the US Old South (and to some extent the new) would be treated just as harshly as the resident African Americans, even though those three groups are about as genetically distinct as any on earth.

And, getting back to Poles, iirc Hitler considered all Slavs to be a mongrel race and was hoping to exterminate them, not just Jews (and homosexuals and Romani and...).
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1041 on: May 29, 2017, 10:06:20 PM »
The real issue with the EU is that it was extended to include countries of widely different levels of income, but kept the free flow of people. As most people's second language is English, many of the economic migrants went to the UK. In the millions.

For the working class this meant direct competition for jobs, and overcrowding of schools etc. in the southeast (the predominant destination for the migrants). Brexit voting was very much split between working class (for) and middle/upper class (against) - voting their economic interests. Less racism and more basic economics. Also, the sheer speed and scale of the migration (millions in a few years) produced a lot of disruption. After significant levels of immigration many countries, including the US, have opted for a pause to allow time for the integration of the new immigrants.

You simply cant have a big chunk of population move from one country to another and not expect economic and social problems to occur. Wide open labour mobility does not work well between countries with widely different incomes, except for employers. Same issue with illegal Mexican etc. immigrants in the US, its always interesting how few employers get put in jail rather than the victimization of the migrants (which makes it even easier for employers to exploit them).


Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1042 on: May 29, 2017, 11:43:12 PM »
We let people move freely between US states and we're a lot larger than the EU.

By not turning out to vote the anti-Brexit people let Britain's racists shoot Britain in both feet.  It's going to be interesting to see if that gets reversed going forward.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1043 on: May 30, 2017, 01:00:46 PM »
We let people move freely between US states and we're a lot larger than the EU.
Much different. The US is much more homogeneous in terms of culture and language, so when people move they don't cluster in enclaves. More importantly, the US is a transfer union with federal taxation and distribution, helping to soften imbalances. And finally, the US has always had free movements between states, so there were no large imbalances waiting to equalize as soon as the gates were down.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1044 on: May 30, 2017, 11:42:15 PM »
The linked March 19, 2017 article is entitled: "IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and 2018 US elections", indicates that the IPCC's special report on the 1.5C target is scheduled for final release on September 30th, 2018, just before the US mid-term elections.  It will be interesting see whether the voting public cares about the special report findings, or not.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/3/19/1645061/-IPCC-Sixth-Assessment-Report-AR6-and-2018-US-elections

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1045 on: May 31, 2017, 03:24:13 AM »
We already blew through the 1.5 degrees target if we account for CO2e properly, the UN IPCC should be having emergency meetings on how we pull ourselves back within 2 degrees envelope through emergency action. The 1.5 degree thing is just political BS, and completely takes away from the reality and urgency of the situation. Once again the UN exemplifies soft denial.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1046 on: May 31, 2017, 03:25:08 AM »
The linked March 19, 2017 article is entitled: "IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and 2018 US elections", indicates that the IPCC's special report on the 1.5C target is scheduled for final release on September 30th, 2018, just before the US mid-term elections.  It will be interesting see whether the voting public cares about the special report findings, or not.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/3/19/1645061/-IPCC-Sixth-Assessment-Report-AR6-and-2018-US-elections

I doubt climate is going to pay much of a role in the midterm and next presidential elections.  Climate will just be part of the larger package.  The next two elections are likely to be all about Trump.  (If he lasts long enough.)

Dry_Land_Is_Not_A_Myth

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1047 on: May 31, 2017, 04:06:18 PM »
Well, as alluded to by AbruptSLR, Trump has pulled out of the Paris agreement.

https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-is-pulling-u-s-out-of-paris-climate-deal-2427773025.html

pileus

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1048 on: May 31, 2017, 05:00:03 PM »
We let people move freely between US states and we're a lot larger than the EU.
Much different. The US is much more homogeneous in terms of culture and language, so when people move they don't cluster in enclaves. More importantly, the US is a transfer union with federal taxation and distribution, helping to soften imbalances. And finally, the US has always had free movements between states, so there were no large imbalances waiting to equalize as soon as the gates were down.

Directionally true but the notion of the US as one coherent and united nation is largely a narrative and to some degree folklore.  There are numerous regional sub cultures across the US, and permanent movement beyond local areas has decreased over time, especially among the lower economic classes.  There is the broader cliche of the coastal elites vs the heartland, but the linked article gives an overview of the work by Colin Woodward into even deeper regional differences and cultures.

Migration, racism, and issues of economic opportunity and security play out differently across these 11 regions.  The transfer of federal taxation does not always solve for engrained social and economic issues in the most dependent areas, they actually persist in many cases. 

I have lived in 4 of these defined regions, and worked in and traveled to all of them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/11/08/which-of-the-11-american-nations-do-you-live-in/?utm_term=.20b7809df746

Adding a layer to the above, here is a survey summary of US atttitudes towards climate change by state and congressional district

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/03/21/climate/how-americans-think-about-climate-change-in-six-maps.html?_r=0


« Last Edit: May 31, 2017, 05:09:12 PM by pileus »

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1049 on: May 31, 2017, 06:13:46 PM »
Although I'm unsure of the validity of the 11 nations map I too have lived in 4 and visited them all. In your second link the final map showing where climate change is talked about is interesting. I can't help wonder how it correlates with religion, economics, and education.


OT - not reading many American newspapers I was taken aback by the negative tone in both publications WRT the Trump Presidency. I had read that national news organizations, except Fox, were running between 80% and 91% negative articles about the President. He's obviously in way over his head, but ...


Terry