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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1150 on: June 17, 2017, 03:38:30 PM »
Sweden passes climate law to become carbon neutral by 2045

Legislation makes Sweden the first country to significantly upgrade its ambition since the world agreed a climate deal in Paris, in contrast with US backsliding
Quote
Sweden has committed to becoming a net-zero carbon emitter by 2045, under a law passed in parliament on Thursday.

Lawmakers voted 254 to 41 in favour of the proposal, which was developed by a committee involving seven out of eight parliamentary parties. Only the far right Swedish Democrats did not engage in the consultation.

The legislation, which takes effect from 1 January 2018, takes a similar form to the UK’s 2008 Climate Change Act. It establishes an independent Climate Policy Council and four-yearly cycle for updating the national climate action plan.
...
The Nordic country becomes the first to significantly upgrade its ambition in light of the international climate deal adopted in Paris in 2015. It was previously targeting carbon neutrality by 2050.
...
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/06/15/sweden-passes-climate-law-become-carbon-neutral-2045/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1151 on: June 17, 2017, 05:29:17 PM »
Cross-post from Aviation thread:

100 European Airports to Go Climate Neutral by 2030
Commitment in Support of Paris Agreement Goals
Quote
100 European airports are to be carbon neutral by 2030, according to the planning of the European branch of Airports Council International (ACI Europe). The council this week doubled its carbon neutrality target for 2030 in support of the central goal of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which is to hold the global average temperature rise to as close as possible to 1.5°C.

Carbon emissions generated by airport operations account for up to 5% of total emissions from the aviation sector, and engagement of the airport industry is key to achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. The aviation industry has a major interest in preventing more extreme weather from climate change, as more storms, heatwaves and turbulence will directly affect air travel.
...
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/climate-action/100-european-airports-to-go-climate-neutral-by-2030/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1152 on: June 18, 2017, 07:38:10 AM »
Kevin Anderson: Paris, climate & surrealism: how numbers reveal another reality

A very clear presentation by Kevin Andersen about the UN IPCC assumptions of BECCS to take out up to 800 Gt of CO2 in order for us to stay within 2 degrees - doubling the carbon budget. Without that, Andersen says that rich countries should be reducing emissions at 12% per year, from now.

Andersen states that these calculations take the UN numbers at face value, i.e. not including feedbacks. Increased rate of soil metabolism may add 200 Gt of CO2 by itself. Then, of course, there is the possibility of an ice free arctic ...

"A deep systemic bias to <assume risky assumptions that makes things easier and ignore the risks of things that will make things harder>"





« Last Edit: June 18, 2017, 09:25:48 PM by rboyd »

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1153 on: June 18, 2017, 07:16:21 PM »
The Biggest Problem Seems To Be The White Settler Colonies

Carbon Tracker groups countries by different categories with respect to their plans to achieve their INDCs. "Role Model, Sufficient, Medium, Inadequate".

Role Model: No One!
Sufficient: Costa Rica, Ethiopia, Morocco, Bhutan, The Gambia
Medium: Brazil, China, European Union, India, Switzerland, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Norway, Philippines, Peru
Inadequate: Argentina, Canada, Chile, Japan, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey, UAE, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Ukraine, South Africa
In a Category All By Itself: Carbon Tracker says that they do not have a category for countries that are pulling out of the Paris accord, so that places the USA in a category all by itself.

So the rule seems to be that if the country's official language is English, and its not the UK, it falls into the inadequate category. These countries all set pathetically low targets to begin with, especially given their world-leading levels of carbon emissions per capita.

Everything is relative though, with the EU committing to only a 1.2% annual reduction in carbon emissions between now and 2030:

"The 40% emissions reduction target is significantly behind what is achievable and necessary by the EU. Between 1990 and 2015 the EU’s emissions decreased by 24%, or approximately 1.1% per year. As a result, from now until 2030, emissions only need to decrease by about 1.2% annually to achieve the 2030 emissions reduction goal ... A significant acceleration of climate action is therefore essential to meet the EU’s long-term 2050 emissions reduction goal of 80–95% below 1990 by 2050. The long term goal also needs to be revised to reflect the Paris Agreement temperature goal.  Slowing down now will require much faster - and therefore more costly"

Kicking the can down the road to future generations.The Carbon Tracker site does make for some sobering reading.

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html
« Last Edit: June 18, 2017, 07:27:30 PM by rboyd »

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1154 on: June 18, 2017, 07:30:08 PM »
Team Trump is not waiting until America's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is official to hobble America's efforts to fight climate change:

"Rick Perry’s plan to kill funding for wind and solar power"

http://www.salon.com/2017/06/18/rick-perrys-plan-to-kill-funding-for-wind-and-solar-power/

Extract: "The Department of Energy has ordered a staff report to show renewable energy harms the electric grid"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1155 on: June 18, 2017, 07:55:07 PM »
Is Trump Launching A New World Order: Call It Petro-Powers vs. the Greens?

An interesting take on the Trump Presidency and climate change.

http://www.salon.com/2017/06/18/is-trump-launching-a-new-world-order_partner/

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1156 on: June 18, 2017, 08:15:34 PM »
Cross posting from coal

Global wind and solar costs to fall even faster, while coal fades even in China and India

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Report (you can download the exec summary for free)

"This year’s forecast from BNEF sees solar energy costs dropping a further 66% by 2040, and onshore wind by 47%, with renewables undercutting the majority of existing fossil power stations by 2030.

New Energy Outlook 2017, the latest long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, shows earlier progress than its equivalent a year ago towards decarbonization of the world’s power system – with global emissions projected to peak in 2026 and to be 4% lower in 2040 than they were in 2016.

In the U.S., the Trump administration has voiced support for the coal sector. However, NEO 2017 indicates that the economic realities over the next two decades will not favor U.S. coal-fired power, which is forecast to see a 51% reduction in generation by 2040. In its place, gas-fired electricity will rise 22%, and renewables 169%."

Let's hope that emissions are a lot more than 4% lower in 2040 than now, otherwise we will already have blown well through 2 degrees centigrade. Seems Bloomberg has to keep updating its forecasts to be more bullish, so some hope there.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-wind-solar-costs-fall-even-faster-coal-fades-even-china-india/

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1157 on: June 18, 2017, 08:18:26 PM »
BNEF Projected Global Electricity Generation Mix

We need ramped up energy efficiency/slower economic growth/high carbon taxes to help that fossil fuel line drop much earlier and much faster.



rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1158 on: June 18, 2017, 08:44:56 PM »
Following the Money to 2ºC - Anthony Hobley Lecture #CCLS17

Very good presentation by Carbon Tracker on the fossil fuel stranded assets and future investments.



rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1159 on: June 18, 2017, 09:41:31 PM »
Total Remaining Emissions From Start of 2017

UN IPCC Budget was 1000 GtCO2 only, from 2011 to the end of the century. 790 GtCO2 if non-CO2 GHGs are taken into account. We have already used about 200GtCO2 between 2011 and 2016, so we have 590 GtCO2 left.

BUT: Using the most optimistic assumptions for deforestation, we need to remove 60 GtCO2 for land use changes, leaving 530 GtCO2.

BUT: Cement process emissions will also remove 150 GtCO2 from the budget using the most optimistic scenario, leaving 380 GtCO2 for energy only CO2-only emissions.

At approx. 40 GtCO2 per year, such emissions will eat up the carbon budget in 10 years (2027).

This does not take into account climate feedbacks, such as increased natural emissions, carbon sink reductions, and an ice-free arctic, which would further reduce the carbon budget.

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/16/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2016.pdf

http://kevinanderson.info/blog/duality-in-climate-science/






« Last Edit: June 19, 2017, 03:21:19 AM by rboyd »

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1160 on: June 18, 2017, 09:51:30 PM »
BNEF Projected Global Electricity Generation Mix

We need ramped up energy efficiency/slower economic growth/high carbon taxes to help that fossil fuel line drop much earlier and much faster.



Just based on the rapidly dropping prices for wind and solar along with growing global concern over climate change I'd say crank the endpoints for the Fossil Fuel and Solar & Wind lines back to 2030.  And take FF lower.

"Other Renewables" might grow more as countries tap hydro for wind/solar fill-in.  Dams with limited inflow, too little to make them major power producers, can turn into producers/pump-up storage.

Baring a major breakthrough on nuclear pricing that red line won't hold that high.  Too many of the world's reactors will age out before 2040 and the cost of replacing, or even refurbishing, will drive the money to renewables.


Bruce Steele

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1161 on: June 18, 2017, 11:01:50 PM »
rboyd, In the Kevin Anderson you tube video you posted in the conservative science thread Kevin twice uses a 800 GtC emissions limit. When we include CO2e and feedbacks I would venture to guess even the 800 GtC is to high. I don't understand why we should give the IPCC any credence when they continue to blow CCS smoke up our collective asses.
 1,000 GtC is a generous sprinkling of fairy dust by a civilization never intending to achieve an emissions total that might preserve the ecosystems we need to survive.
 You, Bob Wallace and I might still be here watching as we blow though the 800 gT limit. We probably won't be around to see the consequences .

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1162 on: June 19, 2017, 01:03:59 AM »
Bruce, I agree. I do wonder if Kevin Anderson is being careful not to be so far outside the mainstream that he gets completely rejected. There is already a great amount of resistance to his message. Even in this panel discussion you can see the Pollyanna's pushing back at him:



On his blog, he does mention reductions in the carbon budget for land use (deforestation) and process related cement production emissions. He doesn't take account of the non-CO2 GHG emissions though.

http://kevinanderson.info/blog/duality-in-climate-science/

As I posted above in this thread, taking all these into account leaves about 10 years worth of energy-related CO2 emissions, including 2017. Then add in the soil carbon feedback (and nitrous oxide), possible sink reductions, and an ice free arctic and the budget is most probably already spent!

The UN IPCC is simply soft denial, but unfortunately the policy elites hang onto its comforting messages. At some point the dam of denial will break (a blue arctic, 450ppm, 2 degrees, New York Cat 5?? or an accumulation of them all?) then all hell will break loose as societies go into emergency mode.

Then dealing with both the effects of climate change, the effects of rapid cuts in emissions, and most probably the effects of attempted geo-engineering. Crazy times to look forward to. Starting a Phd this fall with the catchy working title of "societal resilience in the face of abrupt climate change", looks like I may have no shortage of research material to work with.

I may be in my mid-50's, but may have a few good decades left in me. So I may very well see some of the consequences start to come about - perhaps from my comfy chair, if the support systems are still working well enough.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2017, 03:29:17 AM by rboyd »

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1163 on: June 19, 2017, 05:09:54 AM »
rboyd


Congratulations on your Phd track! I can't think of a more apropos subject, unless possibly Rock Knapping 101 is being offered. :(


Do you're plans include studies of prehistoric as well as more recent technological mitigation attempts? The Ma'rib Dam, Necho II's Suez Canal, and the Qanat systems both ancient and modern have fascinated me. All seemed to have served their purpose very well until war destroyed them. The West's destruction of Qaddafi's quants in Libya is a crime against humanity that may go unremembered as well as unpunished.


If we can't silence the drums of war, societal resilience in the face of climate change may suddenly transform into societal resilience in the face of nuclear annihilation.


Winter is coming - And it begins under a mushroom cloud.
Terry


Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1164 on: June 19, 2017, 05:43:23 AM »
I don't think is so much a dam of denial as a lack of a sense of urgency. 

I'm afraid it will take some major event (first Arctic Ocean melt-out, major heat wave in the US NE that kills a lot of people, something along that line) to light a fire under people.

But in the meantime we're continuing to make wind and solar even cheaper.  Storage more affordable.  And we're about to release the Great Electric Vehicle Monster on gasmobiles.

There just can't be any significant argument about why not to get off fossil fuels if renewable electricity gives us cheaper electricity and cheaper rides.  I think we're about two years from hearing the rumbling of the avalanche.

The biggest thing we need to do in the US is to return control of the White House and Congress to Democrats in 2020.  We need to make sure there are no federal barriers erected and that renewables have a clear track to the finish line.

And we need China and India to follow through with what they are saying they will do.  I'm not worried about the EU, in general.

If the US, China and India start to move a lot faster then I think other countries will join right in.  The high status thing to achieve will be a 100% renewable grid.  Countries that have large fossil fuel use will get looked down on and the big countries will start pressuring the non-compliers.

(It used to be that countries sought  a nuclear plant to show that they were "modern".)

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1165 on: June 20, 2017, 06:10:47 AM »
Humans Cannot Simply Plant Their Way Out of Climate Change

"If we continue burning coal and oil the way we do today and regret our inaction later, the amounts of greenhouse gas we would need to take out of the atmosphere in order to stabilise the climate would be too huge to manage,” says Lena Boysen from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the study, published in Earth’s Future journal."

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/humans_cannot_simply_plant_their_way_out_of_climate_change_20170529

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1166 on: June 20, 2017, 03:18:42 PM »
The linked article indicates that the EU may soon adopt new rules to hide the climate change impacts of their harvesting of forests:

"Guest post: How new EU rules could ‘hide’ climate impact of harvesting forests"

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-new-eu-rules-could-hide-climate-impact-harvesting-forests

Extract: "Today, the EU began drafting laws to put its 2030 climate target into action – and there is one particularly contentious issue under discussion.

In the EU, forests act as a “carbon sink”, which means that they absorb more CO2 than they release. But new policies being proposed could result in more trees being harvested. What’s more, some countries are arguing for new accounting rules that would effectively hide the impact these policies could have for raising CO2 emissions from forests."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1167 on: June 20, 2017, 06:10:08 PM »
Thanks for this AbruptSLR, the whole Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry area is open to so much manipulation. Together with the lack of accounting for fugitive methane emissions, its one of the biggest areas for such games.

From the article:

"We suggest that basing forest accounting on a scientifically-objective approach, such as the one originally proposed by the European Commission, is critical to ensure the credibility of bioenergy accounting"

If only things were so simple. We need big business interests , and their tame politicians, removed from the decisions making process. Of course, thats not going to happen ...

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1168 on: June 20, 2017, 10:00:46 PM »
Quote
We need big business interests , and their tame politicians, removed from the decisions making process. Of course, thats not going to happen ...

Last century's big (energy related) businesses were fossil fuels and ICEV manufacturers.

This century's big (energy related) businesses will be wind, solar, storage and EV manufacturers.

The quicker we get a new set of "tamed politicians", the better.  In the US we're seeing true red Republican Congress critters now supporting wind and solar.  Tide, she be turning....


rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1169 on: June 20, 2017, 11:06:17 PM »
Spent a good part of the day getting my head around the Integrated Assessment Model used by Nordhaus et. al. to calculate the social cost of carbon. So many highly questionable assumptions, but the doozy has to be how they calculate the cost of the impacts of climate change. I bet you thought that it was really complicated right?

Nope, you simply take the square of the increase in global average temperatures and multiply it by 0.236% to get the GDP cost. Using this approach, they get 2.1% of global income for a 3 degree centigrade rise and 8.5% for 6 degrees.

"The parameter used in the model was an equation with a parameter of 0.236% loss
in global income per °C squared with no linear term. This leads to a damage of 2.1% of
income at 3 °C, and 8.5% of global income at a global temperature rise of 6 °C"

Yep, a 3 degree rise in global temperatures will cost us only 2.1% of global income and the total collapse of society that will follow a 6 degree rise will only be equal to 8.5% of GDP. On this basis they calculate the social cost of carbon. People with clever models making utterly stupid assumptions that are then taken as gospel by policy makers.

http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d20/d2057.pdf
« Last Edit: June 20, 2017, 11:12:07 PM by rboyd »

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1170 on: June 21, 2017, 01:31:03 AM »
Lots of good dissertation material is how I would look at it.

If I was going to go through the process again....   :P

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1171 on: June 21, 2017, 01:31:13 AM »



Is it possible that Trump's flight from reality, and the Paris Accord, could be a blessing in disguise? From within, US interests were able to water down and slow down elements of the agreement that the rest of the world might have signed off on.
Now that American negotiators are out of the room, those with more reasonable positions may hold sway.


Terry

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1172 on: June 21, 2017, 05:00:56 AM »
Bob, there is definitely no shortage of material for my dissertation!

Terry, I feel that Trump actually gives cover to the others to take it easy. They can always say that they are not as bad as Trump, everything is relative.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1173 on: June 21, 2017, 07:04:32 PM »
I think that we should be careful in hoping that an accumulation of smaller local actions will make-up for Trump's short-comings in federal action; as too much focus on small steps can exhaust political will to more effectively fight climate change with bigger actions:

"Small Steps to Save Energy Exhaust Political Will for Bigger Actions"

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/small-steps-to-save-energy-exhaust-political-will-for-bigger-actions/

Extract: "A study in Japan finds that after people unplug appliances and turn down the A-C, they are more resistant to nationwide climate change measures"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1174 on: June 22, 2017, 01:01:10 PM »
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/877036967224983552

"The legislation-signing ceremonies in Sweden are a bit different than in the White House."

"#Sweden plans to be #carbonneutral by 2045 bit.ly/2sOvzTT New legislation sets goal 5 years earlier than originally agreed"
https://twitter.com/unfccc/status/876807680488353792
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Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1175 on: June 22, 2017, 03:50:13 PM »
Great to see someone shortening the timeline.  I expect we'll see more and more of this as countries realize how affordable renewables and storage are becoming and how they will be able to improve their economies by moving off fossil fuels rapidly.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1176 on: June 23, 2017, 02:36:21 AM »
 Also great to see something other than a bunch of old white men involved in the decisions.  ;)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1177 on: June 27, 2017, 05:07:29 PM »
The conference concludes.

U.S. Conference of Mayors Back 100% Renewable Energy, Vow to Fill Climate Leadership Void
Vote to support quick electrification of vehicles and urged Congress to back the Clean Power Plan and Paris climate agreement.
Quote
As the nation's mayors closed their annual meeting on Monday in Miami Beach, they sent a clear signal that cities are looking for action on climate change and are eager to fill a policy gap created by the Trump administration.

The United States Conference of Mayors, which includes both Republican and Democratic mayors from cities across the nation, adopted a series of resolutions that are far more assertive than federal climate policy, including a pledge supporting cities' adoption of 100 percent renewable energy by 2035.
...
On Monday, Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York, used the conference's closing luncheon to announce a new initiative of his philanthropy that will provide $200 million in grants over the next three years to support city initiatives on major policy challenges, including climate change, education and gun control.

"We'll expand our work to empower more mayors to lead the fight against climate change so that America can meet the goals it set in Paris, no matter what happens in Washington," he told the conference.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26062017/mayors-conference-supports-100-percent-renewable-energy-electric-vehicles-climate-change
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1178 on: June 28, 2017, 02:43:36 PM »
Macron meets Schwarzenegger and vows to stop oil and gas licences
Quote
The new French government has sought to further burnish its green credentials with the announcement it is to stop granting licences for new oil and gas exploration.

In his first major intervention since Emmanuel Macron’s election victory, the ecological transition minister, Nicolas Hulot, told the broadcaster BFMTV there would be “no new exploration licences for hydrocarbons”.

Hulot said the government would extend Macron’s promised moratorium on fracking projects to cover all oil and gas exploration. He also hinted that the government would increase taxes on diesel and look to streamline decision-making on environmental issues so they could be made “faster”.
...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/26/macron-meets-schwarzenegger-vows-stop-oil-gas-licences
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1179 on: June 28, 2017, 09:29:09 PM »
Macron meets Schwarzenegger and vows to stop oil and gas licences
Quote
the ecological transition minister
...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/26/macron-meets-schwarzenegger-vows-stop-oil-gas-licences

Every country should have an Ecological Transition Manager, what a great job title.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1180 on: June 28, 2017, 09:53:24 PM »
The latest 3-year plan.  Whether this is taken seriously or not, there are signs that the year 2020 will be transformative.  I say: if the U.S. representative to the G20 meeting won't cooperate on climate goals, the other leaders should ignore or openly snub him/her and get on with their efforts.  A little humiliation might be just the thing.

Three years to safeguard our climate
Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world’s carbon dioxide by 2020.
https://www.nature.com/news/three-years-to-safeguard-our-climate-1.22201
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rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1181 on: June 29, 2017, 12:40:55 AM »
Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n3/full/nclimate2868.html

How much carbon dioxide can we emit?

http://cicero.uio.no/en/posts/climate/how-much-carbon-dioxide-can-we-emit

Makes your head spin just keeping track of it all as you read them. Bottom line is that for a 66% chance of 2 degrees the budget could be as little as 590 Gt of CO2 from the end of 2014. At 40 Gt of CO2 per year, thats 15 years or 2030, at current rates of emissions.

If we peaked in 2020, we would only have 390Gt of CO2 left. We would then need to cut emissions by more than 4% a year globally (with 3% gdp growth thats a 7% rate of annual decarbonization), more in the richer nations. That's why the "overshooting plus negative emissions" scenarios keep popping up.

That estimate does not include (all of which are being supported by more recent research papers):
- Possibility of increased non-anthropogenic emissions as temperatures increase
- Albedo effects of an ice free Arctic
- Any other non-linear feedbacks (e.g. sink failures due to ocean warming/acidification, reductions in plant growth due to heat/water stress)
- Probable understatement of recent methane emissions

Add them in, and probably no climate budget. So I would have to rate the Christiana Figueres et. al. effort as soft denial. We need a paradigm shift to remove the rose-coloured glasses.

It could start by all policy makers and scientists before forced to read the "Conservative Scientists & its Consequences" thread every day. At least once a week there seems to be a paper that finds something else that will reduce the carbon budget.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2017, 01:08:02 AM by rboyd »

Bruce Steele

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1182 on: June 29, 2017, 06:19:41 AM »
rboyd, If you look at the Keeling curve you can see that 10 Gt CO2 anthro emissions in 1960 was causing a rise in atmospheric CO2 . If we were to start to reduce CO2 at the same rate we have followed as we went from 10Gt in 1960 to the 40Gt and got back to 10Gt in ~ sixty years atmospheric CO2 would still be increasing.  We would be at atmospheric CO2 in excess of 520 ppm and approaching doubling. I think some of the CO2 that has gone into short term terrestrial and oceanic sinks would be coming back out and atmospheric levels would probably be higher than the 520 ppm that simple math might lead you to believe. We would be approaching CO2 doubling and climate sensitivity of
1.5-4.5 would determine the heating we would experiance. The point of all this is to emphasize that simply starting a decline in our emissions will not result in a cessation of atmospheric CO2 level increases.
 So getting back to zero and dealing with what comes out of short term sinks is necessary to stop atmospheric CO2 increases. I don't understand why this issue is so poorly covered in drawdown discussions. 

DrTskoul

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1183 on: June 29, 2017, 01:14:01 PM »
The latest 3-year plan.  Whether this is taken seriously or not, there are signs that the year 2020 will be transformative.  I say: if the U.S. representative to the G20 meeting won't cooperate on climate goals, the other leaders should ignore or openly snub him/her and get on with their efforts.  A little humiliation might be just the thing.

Three years to safeguard our climate
Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world’s carbon dioxide by 2020.
https://www.nature.com/news/three-years-to-safeguard-our-climate-1.22201

Good luck..megaprojects need at least (assuming all licenses and regulatory requirements met now) 3-5 years before construction can begin and another 2-5 years before startup.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1184 on: June 29, 2017, 05:18:34 PM »
Mayors of 7,400 cities vow to meet Obama's climate commitments
‘Global covenant of mayors’ to work together on climate change whether current White House resident agrees or not
Quote
Mayors of more than 7,400 cities across the world have vowed that Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris accord will spur greater local efforts to combat climate change.

At the first meeting of a “global covenant of mayors”, city leaders from across the US, Europe and elsewhere pledged to work together to keep to the commitments made by Barack Obama two years ago.

Cities will devise a standard measurement of emission reductions to help them monitor their progress. They will also share ideas for delivering carbon-free transport and housing.

Kasim Reed, the mayor of Atlanta, told reporters he had travelled to Europe to “send a signal” that US states and cities would execute the policies Obama committed to, whether the current White House occupants agreed or not.
...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/28/global-covenant-mayors-cities-vow-to-meet-obama-climate-commitments
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1185 on: June 29, 2017, 05:26:27 PM »
The latest 3-year plan.  Whether this is taken seriously or not, there are signs that the year 2020 will be transformative.  I say: if the U.S. representative to the G20 meeting won't cooperate on climate goals, the other leaders should ignore or openly snub him/her and get on with their efforts.  A little humiliation might be just the thing.

Three years to safeguard our climate
Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world’s carbon dioxide by 2020.
https://www.nature.com/news/three-years-to-safeguard-our-climate-1.22201

Good luck..megaprojects need at least (assuming all licenses and regulatory requirements met now) 3-5 years before construction can begin and another 2-5 years before startup.

Not all projects need to be "mega."  And some can be done very quickly.  As in Elon Musk's promise:  "Tesla will get the system installed and working 100 days from contract signature or it is free. That serious enough for you?"

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/10/elon-musk-i-can-fix-south-australia-power-network-in-100-days-or-its-free

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-tesla-energy-storage-20170131-story.html


People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1186 on: June 29, 2017, 07:50:11 PM »
So getting back to zero and dealing with what comes out of short term sinks is necessary to stop atmospheric CO2 increases. I don't understand why this issue is so poorly covered in drawdown discussions.

I have been very surprised to find otherwise well educated people confusing a drop in emissions with a drop in atmospheric concentrations. I find myself using the metaphor of an accelerator, we may have released the pressure of our foot on it a bit, but we are still moving forward just at a slower pace. We need to come to a stop before we hit the wall.

The overshoot and drawdown scenarios do tend to include the need to deal with outgassing as atmospheric concentrations drop. Hansen has noted this in his discussions of drawing back down to 350.

Overall, I find the general level of media discussion an education on these topics to be abysmal.Also, people just wanting the simple solution and not wanting to hear about the inconvenient details.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1187 on: June 29, 2017, 08:26:04 PM »
I certainly got a bit too excited about seeing annual emissions starting to (apparently) stop their growth and start to decrease and got myself confused about dropping atmospheric concentration. 

Based on 2017 BP numbers it does look like we might have hit peak CO2 emission from the energy sector.  I'm willing to suggest that we will see a downturn over the coming years because China is now on a downslope and it looks like India is making very serious efforts to reduce their output.  Then add in the probable upcoming EV era which should start to make serious decreases to oil demand.

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1188 on: June 29, 2017, 08:49:47 PM »
Even for China to just stabilize emissions while maintaining GDP growth at about 6% will be a continuing huge challenge for them, so I am still on a "wait and see" with China. To actually cut emissions meaningfully would require a decarbonization rate in the 8-9% range. Doing that for one or two years is very different from maintaining it year after year. Climate Trackers sees Chinese emissions increasing very slowly between now and 2030.

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html

Climate Action Tracker has India undershooting its Paris emissions pledge, but still significantly increasing its emissions to about 4.5GtCO2 in 2030 (from about 3GtCO2 now). Incredibly hard to cut emissions with an assumed GDP growth rate of 7.2% with the stage of industrialization that is the most energy intensive.

http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/2017.html

The achievements of China and India will be huge if they just meet the above, underlines the need for very significant and rapid cuts by the richer countries.

Bruce Steele

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1189 on: June 29, 2017, 09:05:54 PM »
Bob, I in no way would suggest you are less than knowledgable about these issues. The gap between your knowledge and the general public is however very broad.
 I shudder at what conditions will be like if we push past 500 ppm considering how things are progressing here in the 400 + present.  Getting us all to accept the hardships that zero is going to result in requires some knowledge of the climate system and the carbon cycle. Leveling off our increases is the first step ,to be sure ,but I think we will find it gets very very difficult as we try to get by on 20 Gt per year , then 10 Gt per year and however implausibly zero. We are very much dependent upon the technological solutions you stress with electrics, batteries, and converting our transportation infrastructure. I worry very much about the total lack of imagination that is being put into how we transform our food infrastructure and dietary preferences. Those changes are where we will see how very difficult it is to get eight billion people fed and still get our emissions to zero.
 Flight, space shots , and a myriad off other luxuries will be memories of the past before we figure out how to feed so many people. I find very few people that can understand why I am trying to farm the way I do. People do understand self suffiency ,they don't however understand the urgency of our carbon predicament.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1190 on: June 29, 2017, 09:54:27 PM »
Quote
Getting us all to accept the hardships that zero is going to result in requires some knowledge of the climate system and the carbon cycle.

I see no hope in getting almost all people concerned about climate change early enough to avoid extreme climate change.  Look at the number of people in the world who misuse alcohol, tobacco and other addictive drugs.  Or who are badly overweight.  Or drive recklessly.  Those people are doing stuff that they know will almost certainly harm themselves, sometimes soon.  People just aren't going to make changes because of something that might get nasty 100 years from now. 

We have to find replacements that are as good/better and cost no more/are cheaper.  Hopefully, better and cheaper.

I see no hardships when it comes to electricity, heating, and transportation.  The replacements we have now are 'better' and cheaper.  It's just a matter of switching over.  And as we go along our replacements are very likely to get even better and even cheaper.

I haven't dealt with ag emissions.  I tend to try to stay focused on energy and transportation.

I'm not really worried about feeding our increasing population.  We can do that by cutting waste and improving ag techniques in our least productive fields.  That's not to say that we won't see a lot of hungry/starving/dying people along the way.  We tend to fix problems after they happen rather than before.  (I suspect the massive famines we've seen in the past are now no longer going to occur due to improved communication and transportation.  Problems will be more localized because of distribution problems.)

Meat and dairy are our largest food-carbon problems, I think.  We can farm with electricity and biofuels.

I'm hopeful that factory grown meat will turn out to be cheaper than hoof-raised which should greatly solve the methane belch problem.  And turning meat grazing land into forest or other carbon sink land might cancel out dairy problems.

The ag solutions have to be 1) as good as what we now eat and 2) as cheap or cheaper.  I don't think we can legislate away meat consumption on a worldwide scale until after it's too late and the globe is in a panic.

DrTskoul

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1191 on: June 29, 2017, 11:45:23 PM »
Quote
Getting us all to accept the hardships that zero is going to result in requires some knowledge of the climate system and the carbon cycle.

I see no hope in getting almost all people concerned about climate change early enough to avoid extreme climate change.  Look at the number of people in the world who misuse alcohol, tobacco and other addictive drugs.  Or who are badly overweight.  Or drive recklessly.  Those people are doing stuff that they know will almost certainly harm themselves, sometimes soon.  People just aren't going to make changes because of something that might get nasty 100 years from now. 

We have to find replacements that are as good/better and cost no more/are cheaper.  Hopefully, better and cheaper.

I see no hardships when it comes to electricity, heating, and transportation.  The replacements we have now are 'better' and cheaper.  It's just a matter of switching over.  And as we go along our replacements are very likely to get even better and even cheaper.

I haven't dealt with ag emissions.  I tend to try to stay focused on energy and transportation.

I'm not really worried about feeding our increasing population.  We can do that by cutting waste and improving ag techniques in our least productive fields.  That's not to say that we won't see a lot of hungry/starving/dying people along the way.  We tend to fix problems after they happen rather than before.  (I suspect the massive famines we've seen in the past are now no longer going to occur due to improved communication and transportation.  Problems will be more localized because of distribution problems.)

Meat and dairy are our largest food-carbon problems, I think.  We can farm with electricity and biofuels.

I'm hopeful that factory grown meat will turn out to be cheaper than hoof-raised which should greatly solve the methane belch problem.  And turning meat grazing land into forest or other carbon sink land might cancel out dairy problems.

The ag solutions have to be 1) as good as what we now eat and 2) as cheap or cheaper.  I don't think we can legislate away meat consumption on a worldwide scale until after it's too late and the globe is in a panic.

Sorry for the OT but being overweight is not equivalent to driving recklessly or even being one's choice.  Poor people's access including their ability to buy healthy food is limited to the point that they cannot escape a vicious downard spiral.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1192 on: June 30, 2017, 12:15:50 AM »
Quote
being overweight is not equivalent to driving recklessly or even being one's choice

Poor people's access including their ability to buy healthy food is limited to the point that they cannot escape a vicious downard spiral.

Perhaps for some.  Certainly not all.


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1193 on: June 30, 2017, 12:44:54 AM »
Merkel issues warning to Trump ahead of G20 summit
Quote
German Chancellor Angela Merkel promised to fight for free trade and press on with multilateral efforts to combat climate change at the G20 summit next week, challenging the "America First" policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.

In a defiant speech to parliament a week before she will host a summit of the world's top economic powers in Hamburg, the northern port city where she was born, Merkel did not mention Trump by name but said global problems could not be solved with protectionism and isolation.

Her remarks raised the prospect of an open clash with Trump at the summit. She later met with European G20 leaders who promised to present a united front in Hamburg, while making clear they preferred compromise to conflict.
...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-germany-merkel-idUSKBN19K2B2
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TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1194 on: June 30, 2017, 11:39:32 AM »
Merkel issues warning to Trump ahead of G20 summit
Quote
German Chancellor Angela Merkel promised to fight for free trade and press on with multilateral efforts to combat climate change at the G20 summit next week, challenging the "America First" policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.

In a defiant speech to parliament a week before she will host a summit of the world's top economic powers in Hamburg, the northern port city where she was born, Merkel did not mention Trump by name but said global problems could not be solved with protectionism and isolation.

Her remarks raised the prospect of an open clash with Trump at the summit. She later met with European G20 leaders who promised to present a united front in Hamburg, while making clear they preferred compromise to conflict.
...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-germany-merkel-idUSKBN19K2B2
This sounds to me like blowback against the proposed sanctions against Russia. Since Trump is also against the sanctions package I'm sure he will gleefully fall on his sword and agree that the US should henceforth refrain from interference with European trade and commerce.
Terry

rboyd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1195 on: June 30, 2017, 09:27:57 PM »
The US sanctions threaten the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Europe, so no wonder the Europeans are up in arms. It has been noted that this could help exports of US LNG to Europe by taking out the competition. US geopolitics at its best!

Trump needs to kill these sanctions to help keep Europe as a strong ally. Such aggressive arm twisting, based on so few facts, will help push the Europeans closer to Russia. Even a mafia boss can't be seen to be taking advantage of the others in his cabal too much. Win-win is the only longer-term positive play.

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1196 on: July 01, 2017, 06:40:51 AM »
Trump is incapable of thinking things through.  He might interfere simply to get back at Merkel whom he seems to now consider an enemy.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1197 on: July 01, 2017, 03:41:56 PM »
The linked article discusses Trump's plan to accelerate the use of fossil fuels in America

Title: "What 'America First' means for energy development"

http://www.hcn.org/articles/energy-and-industry-what-america-first-means-for-energy-development

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bob Wallace

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1198 on: July 01, 2017, 04:31:41 PM »
The linked article discusses Trump's plan to accelerate the use of fossil fuels in America

Title: "What 'America First' means for energy development"

http://www.hcn.org/articles/energy-and-industry-what-america-first-means-for-energy-development

Quote
In practice, the America First agenda means more oil and gas development, which sets the Interior Department on a collision course with conservation-minded stakeholders. Lowenthal said the approach makes Interior “service station for the oil and gas industry.” The Bush administration took a similar tack in opening more federal land to drilling, but Lowenthal said that President Trump “has made the Bush administration look bush league.” The California representative also argued that Trump’s priorities make all other uses, from hunting and boating to off-roading and grazing, lower priority than oil and gas.

Oil development on federal lands?  Not likely at any bothersome level.  There's no market for new US oil at this point in time and there's not likely to be market demand.  The cost of oil is too low, and likely to stay too low, to send rigs into new fields.

Gas, I don't know.  Right now it seems like there's little desire to drill for more gas.  There's enough coming from existing oil wells pretty much as a byproduct.

What we need is a couple more years of heavy wind and solar installation and further drops in storage costs.  Do that and it should be clear that the demand for NG will be dropping as the years pass.  If the industry sees dropping demand there will be less justification to create the infrastructure needed to bring gas from areas now far from NG pipelines.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #1199 on: July 02, 2017, 02:24:32 AM »
 Not exactly on topic until the last paragraph, but some interesting U.S. state emissions illustrations.

Take a Look at the States Sending the Most Carbon Into the Air
Quote
The report comes as some states, municipalities and companies have sought to take over the mantle of combating climate change after President Donald Trump decided to exit the Paris climate accord. The nine states -- including California -- that have pledged to continue to support the international agreement make up about 10 percent of the nation’s emissions from power plants, based on the report’s data.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-21/take-a-look-at-the-states-sending-the-most-carbon-into-the-air
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