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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #200 on: June 08, 2015, 09:58:57 PM »
 ;D

@nytimesworld: This photo is real. Caption contest? http://t.co/6LKzWfPteO
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #201 on: June 08, 2015, 10:13:11 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #202 on: June 09, 2015, 07:21:31 PM »
Do 'whatever it takes' for a deal, says majority in global climate survey
Quote
Nearly two-thirds of people believe that negotiators at key UN climate talks in December should do “whatever it takes” to limit global warming to a 2C rise, according to what is believed to be the most comprehensive survey of global public attitudes to climate change ever conducted.
...
Two-thirds (66%) thought that measures to combat climate change are “mostly an opportunity to improve our quality of life”, while 27% see it as mostly a “threat” to quality of life.

And 64% said the efforts of developing countries should “partly” depend on funding from developed countries, while 18% said it should depend “completely” on such funding.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/08/paris-talks-must-get-agreement-on-2c-limit-majority-say-in-a-global-survey
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Sigmetnow

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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #204 on: June 12, 2015, 01:09:33 AM »
UNFCC says:  Governments Shift Gear Toward Delivery of New Universal Climate Agreement
Groundswell of Action by Cities, Companies and Regions Fire Up Optimism on ‘Pre-2020’Ambition and Beyond
Quote
The path to Paris is now happening on both the political and negotiating levels and with a mood of exceptional confidence and engagement—what is being managed here is no longer resistance to an agreement but complexity, enthusiasm and an understanding that every nation is playing its part," said Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

"The negotiations are also occurring against the backdrop of an accelerating wave of climate action from non-state actors including cities, regions, territories and companies which is contributing confidence to the process," she said.
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/governments-shift-gear-toward-delivery-of-new-universal-climate-agreement/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #205 on: June 15, 2015, 06:23:11 PM »
Quote
On 13 June 2015, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres delivered the Commencement Address to the University of California San Diego School of International Relations and Pacific Studies Class of 2015 in La Jolla, California. In her speech, she said:

"You will write the social contract of this century. Contrary to the previous contracts, it will have to address global concerns just as much, or even more so, than national and local concerns. It will have to be a contract enriched by the integration of North and South, East and West, and deeply informed by the interaction between global challenges and national concerns. It will have to be a contract based more on collaboration than on competition. It will have to be a contract guided by the stars of solidarity and equality."

"Through your decisions you will also determine the design of the impressive infrastructure of the twenty-first century, infrastructure that is almost unimaginable to us today. It will be built to transform the way we house, feed, employ and transport nine billion people despite growing climate uncertainties."
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/speech-ucsd-irps-commencement/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #206 on: June 16, 2015, 03:01:14 AM »
Updated estimate of pledges = 2.6°C warming.

Quote
Pledges already put forward for the Paris conference, including by the U.S., European Union and China, could hold temperature increases to 2.6 degrees Celsius. That’s significantly less of an overshoot than the 3.6-degree long-term gain in the IEA’s main scenario issued in November. The United Nations is trying to hold the increase to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-14/holding-back-climate-change-isn-t-as-hard-as-you-think-iea-says
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #207 on: June 28, 2015, 09:25:39 PM »
Australian Climate Roundtable: Business, union, environmental, investor and welfare groups form unusual coalition on climate policy.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-29/australian-climate-roundtable-business-unions-policy-alliance/6579106
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #208 on: June 29, 2015, 11:42:05 PM »
India, China, Brazil & South Africa issue UN climate deal checklist

Influential bloc of emerging economies sets out priorities for Paris pact with finance and differentiation topping agenda

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/06/29/india-china-brazil-south-africa-issue-un-climate-deal-checklist/#.dpuf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #209 on: July 05, 2015, 04:07:06 AM »
Civil groups heat up climate debate
The French city of Lyon has been hosting a climate summit. Unlike the UN talks, which take place at government level, this meeting brought regions, cities and other players together to drive climate action from below.
Quote
Some 800 mayors, CEOs and trade organizations from around the world have been meeting in Lyon over the past two days to ask for more say in the UN talks, and to showcase their own moves to cut carbon emissions. Local and regional governments have no official seat at the UN climate negotiating table, although they have to cope with the risks of climate change directly. More than half of the global population lives in cities, producing 70 percent of global greenhouse gases.
The World Summit Climate & Territories is part of France's strategy to get as many people involved in climate negotiations as possible, to increase the pressure on world leaders to reach a global accord to reduce emissions at the Paris summit. It was organized by the major global networks of sub-national and local governments in collaboration with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and hosted by the Rhone-Alpes Region, of which Lyon is the capital.
http://www.dw.com/en/civil-groups-heat-up-climate-debate/a-18558155
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #210 on: July 08, 2015, 01:17:48 AM »
The Media Is Still Confused About Whether The Paris Climate Deal Will Limit Warming To 2 Degrees
Quote
Avoiding the 2°C limit remains an essential goal. Indeed, the best science now makes clear we must say as far below 2°C as is humanly possible — a point the world’s top climatologists bluntly explained in May.

But for Paris to single-handedly achieve that goal, every major country would have to commit to specific and ever-deeper post-2030 carbon dioxide cuts all the way to zero emissions in the next half century or so (and possibly negative emissions after that). Such an outcome was never on the table.

As European Union climate chief Miguel Arias Canete has explained: “2C is an objective. If we have an ongoing process you cannot say it is a failure if the mitigation commitments do not reach 2C.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/07/3677040/paris-climate-deal-2c-limit/
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Clare

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #211 on: July 09, 2015, 05:04:50 AM »
NZ has announced its post-2020 target, effectively only 11% below 1990 levels.:
NB. our v high level of emissions/pp cos of all the dairy farming & road transport.

http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/media-releases/new-zealands-post-2020-target--weaker-action-for-a-less-competitive-economy.html

& a journo sums this up this up most succinctly:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/video.cfm?c_id=39&gal_cid=39&gallery_id=152180

Clare, not sure whether to feel angry, depressed, ashamed, frustrated......to be a Kiwi


Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #212 on: July 13, 2015, 06:39:04 PM »
"Our Common Future under Climate Change" conference
Quote
This week has seen thousands of experts come together for the largest scientific gathering on climate change before COP21 in Paris in December.
...
"In many ways, this conference and the 2000-and-some scientists are really gathered to express, more than anything else, their willingness to be part of the process and their commitment to making sure that their knowledge is available as a foundation going into the Paris COP."
...
"We should not see this conference as the scientific input for the [UNFCCC] negotiations. The science is quite clear now. For that, there is no need for such a conference. The purpose of the conference was to generate new ideas after the Paris COP. We should not just focus on the Paris COP. There is a day after Paris, too. Climate policy is not a sprint, it's a marathon."

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/07/scientists-2015-is-a-critical-year-for-bold-action-on-climate-change/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #213 on: July 18, 2015, 01:00:33 PM »
Quote
A United Nations accord to slow global warming should be short, flexible and long-lasting to avoid complex re-negotiations every few years, according to a document prepared by France before a Paris summit in December.

The deal will also have to ensure that governments do not backtrack on promises to cut greenhouse gas emissions despite a likely lack of sanctions, according to a briefing for climate ministers attending preparatory talks in Paris on 20-21 July.

“There is a common understanding that the Paris agreement should be flexible, because it will need to adapt to changing circumstances,” according to the five-page document, seen by Reuters.
...
On Wednesday, a report based on talks with negotiators indicated strong will in nations to reach a climate agreement in 2015. Negotiations failed in 2009 at the last attempt at a summit in Copenhagen.

“Behind the scenes we see a real desire to find common ground,” said Harald Dovland, a former lead negotiator for Norway who co-chaired the report by the Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions, a US-based think-tank.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/17/france-seeks-short-and-long-lasting-paris-climate-change-deal
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #214 on: July 22, 2015, 06:11:48 PM »
New approach to the agreement: individualized country goals instead of "developed/developing" categories, and reviews every five years.

Paris climate ministerial sees progress on global deal
 http://www.rtcc.org/2015/07/22/paris-climate-ministerial-sees-progress-on-global-deal/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #215 on: July 24, 2015, 04:43:46 PM »
While I applaud the efforts of the CoP21 (Paris 2015) use of "intended nationally determined contributions", or INDCs (see attached figure for INDCs to date), in order to move towards its goals of fighting climate change.  Nevertheless, I note that the attached figure focuses on the situation today, while the greatest threat to the future is possible coming increases in GHG emissions from developing nations that have not yet stated their INDCs (i.e. see the grey countries on the map):

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/03/paris-2015-tracking-country-climate-pledges/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #216 on: July 24, 2015, 08:24:47 PM »
That carbonbrief link is a nice summary by country, ASLR.

For future reference, here is the UNFCC site where the full INDC texts can be found:
http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx
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icefest

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #217 on: July 27, 2015, 10:57:50 AM »
NZ has announced its post-2020 target, effectively only 11% below 1990 levels.:
NB. our v high level of emissions/pp cos of all the dairy farming & road transport.

http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/articles/media-releases/new-zealands-post-2020-target--weaker-action-for-a-less-competitive-economy.html

& a journo sums this up this up most succinctly:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/video.cfm?c_id=39&gal_cid=39&gallery_id=152180

Clare, not sure whether to feel angry, depressed, ashamed, frustrated......to be a Kiwi



Still better than Australia in almost every way.
Open other end.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #218 on: July 28, 2015, 09:42:42 PM »
The linked article indicates that the success, or failure, of the CoP21 meeting in Paris (starting November 30) likely will not be certain until November 16 after the Group of 20 meeting in Antalya, Turkey, and will hinge on financing issues:

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/07/28/g20-could-determine-if-rich-will-meet-climate-finance-promise/


Extract: "A forum of the world’s advanced economies could seal the fate of a UN climate pact to be struck in Paris weeks later, say French officials undertaking a frantic diplomacy blitz.
A Group of 20 meeting in Antalya, Turkey, this November is the moment for rich nations to state how they will mobilise $100 billion a year from 2020 to help poor countries fight climate change.
“If developed countries have to honour their commitment, then it is important to clarify the modalities,” France’s special envoy for the protection of the planet, Nicolas Hulot, said on Monday.



The G20 comprises the world’s largest developed and emerging economies, responsible for 70% of global CO2 emissions, two-thirds of the world’s population and 85% of world GDP.
Its members include the US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Australia, South Africa, Turkey, China, South Korea, Mexico, and India.
Leaders will meet for two days in Turkey on November 15-16, with the Paris summit starting on November 30."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #219 on: July 29, 2015, 09:32:01 PM »
9 things we learnt from the latest UN climate text
Quote
On Friday the UN released a streamlined version of a negotiating text for a proposed greenhouse gas slashing pact. Here’s what we have learnt so far.

1 – The two officials running the talks are worried about the speed of talks. They are far too slow and time is running out. There is a “unanimous view that the pace was slow and that there was an urgent need, owing to serious time constraints, to accelerate the work,” they wrote in an opening scenario note.
...
2 – Quit grandstanding, start negotiating. This is linked to the lack of time but also to the nature of the talks. The co-chairs want to bypass the long, rambling and often divisive statements groups make at the start of each session of talks. “We strongly encourage Parties to post their statements and remarks on the UNFCCC website in lieu of presenting them orally,” they write.
...
5 – Developed countries could face an ‘ambition baseline’. One suggestion is that “Developed country Parties shall take on mitigation commitments for the post-2020 period that are more ambitious than emission reductions of at least 25–40% below the 1990 level by 2020.” The EU would pass muster, but the US, Australia, Canada and Japan would struggle.
http://www.rtcc.org/2015/07/27/9-things-we-learnt-from-the-latest-un-climate-text/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #220 on: August 06, 2015, 06:43:14 PM »
National Climate Plans Raise Adaptation’s Profile
Quote
Countries have a great deal of flexibility in the kind of adaptation information they share, and their rationales for including adaptation may differ. Some may wish to communicate advances in adaptation planning and action, highlight the vulnerability of important economic sectors or demonstrate their readiness for various forms of international support. Some may also wish to raise the general profile of adaptation action in order to encourage and support the idea of a long-term goal on adaptation in the international agreement.
http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/08/national-climate-plans-raise-adaptation’s-profile
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #221 on: August 21, 2015, 10:41:14 PM »
100 days to save the world
Quote
...the Paris agreement needs to accomplish a few things: It should send a strong signal that the world is moving away from a fossil fuel economy, and won't turn back; it needs to ensure that pollution pledges only will get stronger over time; it needs to ensure that countries meet again, as soon as five years from now, to ratchet up their commitments; and it needs to require countries to report on their progress transparently, and for those reports to be independently verified.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/21/opinions/sutter-climate-paris-two-degrees-100-days/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #222 on: August 27, 2015, 07:27:33 PM »
Rio de Janeiro first fully compliant city in Compact of Mayors, tackles climate change
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“I am proud that Rio de Janeiro is the first global city to become fully compliant with the Compact of Mayors, and I call on all cities to join this critical initiative on the Road to Paris and beyond,” said Mayor Paes. “By complying with the Compact, we are advancing our work to make Rio a place with a better quality of life for its citizens and a healthier environment for its visitors. Cities are climate leaders, they are in the best position to effect real change. The actions we take at a local level will have a global impact and, by improving our city, we will be helping create a better world for today’s urban citizens and generations to come.”

Launched by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and his Special Envoy for Cities and Climate Change, Michael R. Bloomberg, the Compact of Mayors is gaining momentum in the run-up to the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21). Earlier this week, US President Barack Obama announced that 15 new US cities – including several C40 and ICLEI member cities – joined the Compact of Mayors, and set a goal of having 100 U.S. cities in the Compact in advance of COP21 at the end of November.
http://www.compactofmayors.org/press-release-rio-de-janeiro-first-fully-compliant-city-in-compact-of-mayors-tackles-climate-change/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #223 on: September 01, 2015, 06:27:10 PM »
UN chief to speed climate talks with New York leaders meet
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UN chief Ban Ki-moon has invited leaders from 40 countries to a “closed-door” meeting in New York on 27 September to discuss plans for a global climate deal.

According to Bloomberg, UN officials are targeting leaders of the world’s top greenhouse gas polluters, with China, India, US and EU heads of government slated to attend.
http://www.rtcc.org/2015/09/01/un-chief-to-speed-climate-talks-with-new-york-leaders-meet/#.dpuf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #224 on: September 02, 2015, 08:35:22 PM »
Indonesia looks to increase emissions cut pledge ahead of Paris meet
http://reuters.com/article/idUSL4N1162JT20150831
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #225 on: September 02, 2015, 08:52:31 PM »

The linked German assessment

http://www.dw.com/en/world-still-on-overheat-experts-warn-in-bonn/a-18690452

Extract: "Targets currently stated by individual nations for 2030 made the 2-degree goal "almost impossible," they said.

The average temperature rise - in relation to pre-industrial times - would be closer to 2.9 or 3.1 degrees, said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, a CAT contributor."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #226 on: September 03, 2015, 01:22:13 PM »
Industry comes off the fence and calls for global climate deal
Quote
More than 2,000 listed companies have submitted climate change information to CDP, the global system for disclosure on climate, forests and water. CDP is the only organization acting on behalf of investors to ask companies:

"Would your organization’s board of directors support an international agreement between governments on climate change, which seeks to limit global temperature rise to under 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels in line with IPCC scenarios such as RCP2.6?"

Amongst the companies asked are 28 of the largest (by market capitalization) energy firms, who together account for more than a quarter (26%) of global greenhouse gas emissions* (see editor’s notes for details).

Despite widespread consensus that a significant amount of fossil fuel reserves will have to remain in the ground if dangerous climate change is to be avoided, none of these carbon majors answered "no" in response to the question.


In fact, a majority (13) of the heavy emitters state their board backs a global agreement. These include Russia’s Gazprom, the single biggest emitter of greenhouse gases among these carbon majors, and the US’s ConocoPhillips. Eight report that they have no opinion on the matter and the remaining seven did not answer the question, which suggests either a lack of clarity around the official board position on the issue or that some companies are not treating the imminent COP21 with the necessary strategic priority.

Looking beyond this significant energy sub sector, CDP data shows that companies that have formulated an opinion on a global climate deal are overwhelmingly in support: 806 companies answer yes versus 111 that said no. A high number of companies (1,075) state that they have no opinion and 330 did not answer the question.

CDP’s executive chairman Paul Dickinson says: "It is time for governments to listen to the business voice in support of climate progress rather than to be influenced by a minority and downgrade environmental priorities. Companies are telling us – and their investors – that they welcome climate action, which brings prosperity and growth."
https://www.cdp.net/en-US/News/CDP%20News%20Article%20Pages/industry-calls-for-global-climate-deal.aspx
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #227 on: September 03, 2015, 04:21:31 PM »
The linked article indicates that: "Pressure mounting on UN as Bonn climate talks stutter".


http://www.rtcc.org/2015/09/02/pressure-mounts-on-un-as-bonn-climate-talks-stutter/


Extract: "Seven days of negotiations remain before Paris summit to finalise global pact, but what leaders will sign is unclear."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #228 on: September 04, 2015, 02:51:42 AM »
Quote
@SLHDC: .@CFigueres has a warning for press writing about the Paris climate negotiations http://t.co/ow2F1LcCW8

https://twitter.com/slhdc/status/639515976577515521
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #229 on: September 05, 2015, 01:17:45 AM »
The link (and associated image) leads to the Sept 1 2015 Climate Action Tracker, CAT, update, showing the current situation for INDCs:

http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/briefing_papers/CAT_EmissionsGap_Briefing_Sep2015.pdf

Of course more progress could be made both before and after CoP21.

Edit: Of course the CAT projection assumes: (a) average climate sensitivity; (b) average PDO/IPO/AMO cycle timing; and (c) no additional planetary energy imbalance als Hansen et al 2015.
« Last Edit: September 05, 2015, 04:37:40 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Bruce Steele

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #230 on: September 05, 2015, 02:00:57 AM »
It will come from below
 and we will no more know than the trilobites
 our place in it
Brachiopods and bryozoans
 turned to rock
 like before
Cnidarian nightmares
 sulfur, floating fish
It would take a time machine 
 to turn this back
And believe me
 It was us
 

TerryM

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #231 on: September 05, 2015, 09:43:35 AM »
Wow.....just Wow
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #232 on: September 05, 2015, 03:03:15 PM »
Terry, Thanks. I don't know why I write poems. Just trying to put some order to the chaos I suppose.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #233 on: September 06, 2015, 04:24:18 PM »
Quote
"We all would want to see this baby born," Christiana Figueres, head of the U.N. Climate Change Secretariat, said of the U.N. agreement meant to chart ways to fight global warming beyond 2020 by almost 200 nations.

"Of course we are all impatient, of course we are all frustrated," she told a news conference, referring to efforts to pin down emissions cuts to limit heatwaves, floods and rising sea levels. "We are ... on track with the Paris agreement."

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has in recent weeks criticised the negotiations as progressing at a "snail's pace".

Ahmed Djoghlaf, an Algerian who co-chairs the Bonn meetings, bristled at the description. He said Ban's office was on the 38th floor of the U.N. building in New York. From so high up "you don't see what is going on in the basement," he said.

"We are making progress... We will be on time in Paris," he told a news conference.
...
Governments asked Djoghlaf and his American co-chair Daniel Reifsnyder to present a new streamlined draft text in early October, outlining clear choices.

"It's time for a step change. The real deal needs to start taking shape," European Climate Commissioner Miguel Arias Canete said.

"This is their shot to get it right," Alden Meyer, of the Union of Concerned Scientists, said of the planned draft, adding he felt there was still enough time to line up a deal for Paris.

Overriding choices, for instance, range from a goal of phasing out fossil fuels by 2050 favoured by many developing nations to no deadline at all, favoured by many OPEC states.

http://www.trust.org/item/20150904175046-kwnau/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #234 on: September 07, 2015, 08:28:13 AM »
The linked articles discusses how the French government has organized an unofficial two-day conference of official from 57 countries in an effort to inject some momentum into the critical question of finance and climate change, leading up to CoP21:

http://www.skynews.com.au/business/business/world/2015/09/07/ministers-talk-climate-finance-in-paris.html

Extract: "Ministers and diplomats from 57 countries have gathered in Paris to discuss the make-or-break issue of finance in a climate rescue deal to be sealed in the French capital in December.  The two-day huddle of foreign and environment ministers and senior officials is not part of official negotiations for the highly-anticipated agreement, but is meant to inject political momentum into the fraught UN process."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #235 on: September 08, 2015, 03:26:54 AM »
Quote
The president of France, Francois Hollande, has warned that the global climate change talks scheduled for Paris this December will fail unless nations make a much greater effort to reach agreement – and that the result could be millions of new refugees fleeing climate disaster.

“There is a risk of failure,” he told journalists, after a meeting on the issue of providing financial assistance to poor countries affected by climate change. “If we don’t conclude [with a successful agreement], and there are no substantial measures to ensure the transition [to a climate-affected world], it won’t be hundreds of thousands of refugees in the next 20 years, it will be millions.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/07/paris-climate-talks-could-fail-warns-francois-hollande
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #236 on: September 08, 2015, 04:13:46 PM »
About the current refugee situation in the E.U.:

What You Need to Know About Europe's Refugee Crisis: Q&A
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/what-you-need-to-know-about-europe-s-refugee-crisis-q-a
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #237 on: September 08, 2015, 05:09:53 PM »
The linked New Scientist article illustrates the heart of the problem with the CoP21 negotiations, in that the rich GHG polluting nations (like the USA & Australia) do not want to recognize the full cost of the damage to the Earth that they have already incurred.  Furthermore, that within the rich countries, the rich individuals are still trying to transfer their incurred climate debt to the masses.

"Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will."
Frederick Douglass


https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28135-everyone-in-the-us-and-australia-owes-12000-in-co2-emissions/

Extract: "If you live in the US or Australia, then between 1990 and 2013 you accumulated a debt of more than U$12,000. People in the UK are doing a bit better, racking up about US$4000 in debt over that time.

This isn’t about overspending on credit cards, but about damage done to our atmosphere. If we think of the atmosphere as a limited resource to be shared equally by all, then those who pollute more than their fair share – that is, more than the global average – can be said to be in “emissions debt”. Conversely, those who pollute less are in “emissions credit”."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #238 on: September 08, 2015, 09:05:12 PM »
And here is the link between climate change and the mass migration of refugees.

How Climate Change is Behind the Surge of Migrants to Europe
Quote
On Aug. 31, Secretary of State John Kerry warned that climate change could create a new class of migrants, what he called “climate refugees” at a conference on climate change conference in Anchorage, Alaska. “You think migration is a challenge to Europe today because of extremism, wait until you see what happens when there’s an absence of water, an absence of food, or one tribe fighting against another for mere survival,” he said.
http://time.com/4024210/climate-change-migrants/
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oren

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #239 on: September 08, 2015, 09:57:51 PM »
And here is the link between climate change and the mass migration of refugees.

How Climate Change is Behind the Surge of Migrants to Europe
Quote
On Aug. 31, Secretary of State John Kerry warned that climate change could create a new class of migrants, what he called “climate refugees” at a conference on climate change conference in Anchorage, Alaska. “You think migration is a challenge to Europe today because of extremism, wait until you see what happens when there’s an absence of water, an absence of food, or one tribe fighting against another for mere survival,” he said.
http://time.com/4024210/climate-change-migrants/

In reality the troubles in Syria began with a big drought (partially blamed on climate change) back in 2008-2009, causing mass poverty and large internal migrations, which in turn led to the instability. Now they are called extremism refugees but that's only partially true.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #240 on: September 09, 2015, 01:05:50 PM »
Progress in Climate Talks Attracts Attack Dogs
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One of the key breakthroughs made in Germany last week was a pair of proposals put forward on the issue of loss and damage stemming from climate change. From wildfires in the western U.S. to hurricane storm surge on the eastern seaboard fueled by rising seal levels, the impacts of climate change are hitting home, leaving loss and damage in their wake. It's a global trend, driven by decades of carbon pollution. The poorest developing countries are the most vulnerable. So they are hit the hardest.

The U.S. is leading the effort to ensure Paris produces a comprehensive and long-term global climate agreement. And to that end the U.S. used last week's negotiating session to propose a provision addressing the issue of loss and damage for inclusion in the Paris deal. Potential measures under such a deal include helping developing countries with building an early warning system for extreme weather events and creating a displacement coordination facility to deal with those who lose their homes as a result of extreme weather.

This U.S. administration has taken a pretty hard line against defining the issue of loss and damage as a matter of liability or compensation. Nevertheless, CFACT claimed exactly the opposite, going into hysterics and hyperventilating about President Obama in its email to supporters - and of course repeating the usual litany of lies that the earth isn't warming and climate change hasn't affected extreme weather.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hunter-cutting/progress-in-climate-talks_b_8096200.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #241 on: September 09, 2015, 01:19:18 PM »
Countries edge towards loss and damage deal at climate talks
Proposals published late Friday show positions once light years apart are slowly converging on vexed issue of compensation
http://www.rtcc.org/2015/09/08/countries-edge-towards-loss-and-damage-deal-at-climate-talks/#.dpuf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #242 on: September 10, 2015, 06:44:53 PM »
Mitch McConnell Is Powerless to Block Obama’s Climate Change Deal
Quote
Republican obstinacy is so predictable, it’s already baked into the structure, politics, and messaging ahead of a deal in Paris.
...
Despite the largely hollow threats from McConnell, the Obama administration has been conducting its own outreach to large polluters like China to explain how the U.S. can deliver on its promises in good faith without Congress’ input—as long as a Democrat is in office, that is. In March, the U.S. submitted its pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions up to 28 percent by 2025 over 2005 levels. When negotiators ask State Department climate envoy Todd Stern about the “solidity of U.S. action," he says he assures them that “the kind of regulation being put in place is not easily undone,” signaling that the White House is confident its Clean Power Plan and other EPA regulations can survive court battles and congressional opposition.

All this means mixed news for Paris: The bad news is that a single Republican is powerful enough to undo the deal—but not until long after December, and only if the GOP wins the White House in 2016. The good news, though, is this means Congress is largely on the sidelines for Paris and won’t make or break the negotiations. It won't be Mitch McConnell who sinks a deal.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122759/mitch-mcconnell-powerless-block-obamas-climate-change-deal
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #243 on: September 14, 2015, 04:30:27 PM »
The linked article indicates that Africa is organizing to bring lawyers to CoP21, prepared for tough talk that the developed world may be ill prepared to address.

http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/09/africa-sees-u-n-climate-conference-as-court-case-for-the-continent/


Extract: "As the clock ticks towards the United Nations climate change conference (COP21) in Paris in December, African experts, policy-makers and civil society groups plan to come to the negotiation table prepared for a legal approach to avoid mistakes made during formulation of the Kyoto Protocol."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #244 on: September 14, 2015, 05:49:18 PM »
Obama, World Leaders May Skip Key Part of Paris Climate Talks
Organizers invite leaders to speak at the beginning of COP21, rather than the end, to avoid the eleventh-hour chaos that marked the close of the Copenhagen climate conference.
Quote
“I saw everything from the in­side, and the fact that lead­ers were com­ing in at the end of the con­fer­ence con­trib­uted to the para­lys­is in the ne­go­ti­ations,” said Mey­er, an in­form­al ad­visor to Con­nie Hede­gaard, the Dan­ish of­fi­cial who over­saw that sum­mit. “Clearly the French learned the les­sons of Copen­ha­gen. I haven’t heard of any­one who thinks it’s a good idea to bring the lead­ers in at the end.”
http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/68277/obama-world-leaders-may-skip-key-part-paris-climate-talks
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #245 on: September 17, 2015, 05:45:31 PM »
The linked article (and attached image) discuss how many developing countries are tying their INDCs to the assumption that developed countries will contribute hundreds of billion of dollars to finance much of their efforts:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/09/paris-2015-tracking-requests-for-climate-finance/
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Clare

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #246 on: September 25, 2015, 09:39:28 PM »
Open letter to NZ's PM:
"Do us a favour, Prime Minister, don't send anyone to Paris"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/72373295/do-us-a-favour-prime-minister-dont-send-anyone-to-paris

 from Bunny McDiarmid is NZ Greenpeace's executive director, Niamh O'Flynn works for environmental group 350.org and Cindy Baxter is from Coal Action Network Aotearoa.

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #247 on: September 27, 2015, 07:54:26 PM »
China announces national emissions trading scheme – experts react.
Quote
What is surprising is the speed with which the divide between developed and developing states enshrined in both the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol has now crumbled. Both developed and developing countries in Paris in December will now state their climate pledges, or “intended nationally determined contributions”, including China. These contributions won’t be negotiated by all the parties – that approach has long gone. And the legal character of these contributions is uncertain. But China’s announcement on Friday certainly works in favour of a more robust agreement.

The climate change problem can’t be addressed without China, the world’s largest emitter (or indeed India, the third largest). China now joins the other 75 countries (and the European Union) with frameworks for limiting emissions, and the 47 countries (plus the EU) that have carbon pricing.
https://theconversation.com/china-announces-national-emissions-trading-scheme-experts-react-48159
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #248 on: September 29, 2015, 07:53:10 PM »
While subsequent research has heavily discounted the possibility that ECS might be as low as 1.5C as assumed by AR5, the following linked analysis shows how the AR5 findings can be used to encourage policy makers to relax about taking effective action at CoP21, as all they have to do is assume that ECS is 2.5C and "Mission Accomplished".

Yoichi Kaya, Mitsutsune Yamaguchi and Keigo Akimoto (2015), "The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiation", Sustainability Science, pp 1-4, DOI 10.1007/s11625-015-0339-z


http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11625-015-0339-z


Abstract: "Uncertainty of climate sensitivity is one of the critical issues that may affect climate response strategies. Whereas the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) was specified as 2–4.5 °C with the best estimate of 3 °C in the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC, it was revised to 1.5–4.5 °C in the 5th Assessment Report. The authors examined the impact of a difference in ECS assuming a best estimate of 2.5 °C, instead of 3 °C. The current pledges of several countries including the U.S., EU and China on emission reductions beyond 2020 are not on track for the 2 °C target with an ECS of 3 °C but are compatible with the target with an ECS of 2.5 °C. It is critically important for policymakers in Paris to know that they are in a position to make decisions under large uncertainty of ECS."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #249 on: September 30, 2015, 02:38:53 AM »
Flattening the curve....  ;)

We May Have Just Bought Ourselves An Extra Decade To Avoid Catastrophic Climate Change
Quote
The good news, as you can see, is that the INDCs have bought us another five to 10 years of staying close to the 2°C path. I asked Andrew Jones, one of the systems-thinking savants behind Climate Interactive, if that was correct and he said, “Yep, about seven years.” By “staying close” I mean staying close enough to the 2°C path that it remains plausibly achievable — though (obviously) politically still very, very challenging.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/28/3706024/paris-co2-pledges/
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