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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #500 on: December 17, 2015, 10:00:28 AM »
Sleepy

SHOULD SOUTH KOREANS PAY THE NORTHERNERS FOR POLLUTING LESS?

CO2 emissions per capita in tonnes per annum

North Korea 3
South Korea 10.5

Populations in millions

North Korea  25
South Korea  49.5

I've read somewhere that Hansen has proposed a carbon price of $1000 per tonne CO2(e?). That's probably too low but for the sake of argument...

Average individual fees in

North Korea: $3,000
South Korea: $10,500

Total national carbon pollution fees in $bn:

North Korea: 75
South Korea: 519.75
Total 594.75

If the total of pollution fees is set equal to the total dividend - as Hansen suggests, each of the 74.5m people in the Koreas gets a dividend of $7,983

The net payments (dividend less fee) would be for each citizen:

North Korea: +4,983
South Korea: -2,517

The polluters in the south should be paying those in the north that pollute less.

That said, North Korea's 3 tonnes a year is still too large.

(P.S. The UK is worse than either, if emissions are measured on a consumption basis. See Spin: UK footprint)




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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #501 on: December 17, 2015, 11:09:46 AM »
Geoff, I used the numbers for 2011 which is 0,81, from here:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/nation.1751_2011.ems
Wikipedia only lists up until 2007.

Should the western world pay for everything emitted historically?
It was not too long ago that China passed Sweden per capita. 2009 or something like that, if my teflon memory doesn't let me down. What's the odds for Sweden to pass them again? We might do so, in a not too distant future.

Edit; I forgot to write that I think those who are responsible should pay. With this agreement we simply run away from our duties. Without some form of pricetag on carbon, in a world full of crony capitalism, we won't succeed. None of us.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2015, 12:07:09 PM by Sleepy »

GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #502 on: December 17, 2015, 07:09:46 PM »
Thanks Sleepy

That's a useful source.

It took longer than it should have for me to realise the 0.81 was tonnes C. i.e. 2.97 tonnes CO2.

Not that it matters much for this argument but other greenhouse gasses don't seem to be counted and these figures are production based which makes "devloped" countries look better.

I've just been to a post-COP21 meeting chaired by Lord Stern. They were all amazed at the success.  I felt that they were behind the game. Perhaps it was a brilliant show on the politics - given the complexity but the laws of physics are greater than the laws of politics.

I try and say more when I have recovered and had some email exchanges.
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #503 on: December 17, 2015, 08:40:18 PM »
Yes, it seems to be the same everywhere, Sweden looks really nice with 1,5*3,667=5,5 tonnes? Then we land around ~50 Million tonnes for the nation. :)

But a study from Gothenburg (Chalmers) showed that a person with a low income is 6 tonnes, average income 8 and high income 10 tonnes. Our emissions due to consumption are also steadily increasing.

And then of course, we have our infamous lignite busniess abroad (Vattenfall) which emits 88,4 Million tonnes per year.

JimD

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #504 on: December 18, 2015, 08:15:12 PM »
This is what the Paris farce is really worth.

Quote
India still plans to double coal output by 2020 and rely on the resource for decades afterwards, a senior official said on Monday, days after rich and poor countries agreed in Paris to curb carbon emissions blamed for global warming....
...there were limitations to clean energy and coal would remain the most efficient energy source for decades, he said.

Meanwhile in the US sales of pickups and suv's has risen to 59% of total sales and average fuel mileage is in sharp decline after being flat for 2014.  Manufacturers are lobbying for relaxed regulations.

At least we have a handle on the situation....

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2015/12/india-says-paris-climate-deal-wont.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

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sidd

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #505 on: December 19, 2015, 05:26:18 AM »
Re: India, coal

India will not double coal output by 2020. I will go further, India will not double coal consumption, including imports by 2020. A brief look at the history of coal projects in India will show my reasoning.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #506 on: December 19, 2015, 07:11:38 AM »
Humanity is having a hangover, the fastest treatment is another shot. Bottoms up, let's finish that bottle and have another one!

Shall I mowe my lawn on Christmas Eve? It's actually needed.
We're again looking at over +10°C for a few days to come, here in this wonderful arctic nation, where everyone's whining over not having a white Christmas, again.
Or, should I join the rest of the alcoholics at the oversized dinnertable, have some more shots and rejoice over useless gifts that only makes the Christmas trade happy?

Quote
We look forward to a new record in this Christmas season, let us also hope that the trade profitability follow and not be dragged down by a growing realistic and campaign seasonal sales," says Jonas Arnberg, chief economist at the Swedish Trade Federation, in a statement.

folke_kelm

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #507 on: December 19, 2015, 10:25:59 AM »
You sound by far too pessimistic Sleepy. My lawn is not growing, not because it is too hot, but because it is far too wet. I will slip too cut it, and when it is necessary we have rabbits who are well capable to do the job.
Take climate change with a little more optimism. I look forward to see crocodiles in the lake in front of my kitchen window. These are very good in the kitchen, very tasty, and not so difficult to catch. I do not know exactly, but i think it has been 20 million years since the last crocs have been seen in Sweden.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #508 on: December 19, 2015, 02:02:09 PM »
Agreed Folke, it's not growing too much right now in the rain. ;)

But it has grown earlier. I might take a picture on Christmas Eve, comparing cut grass with uncut and post it here. And crocs are great, I would love to have them around too.

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #509 on: December 19, 2015, 03:06:38 PM »
Re: India, coal

India will not double coal output by 2020. I will go further, India will not double coal consumption, including imports by 2020. A brief look at the history of coal projects in India will show my reasoning.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=22652

Nevertheless, this is where they're aiming, according to the EIA (if you'd like a more authoritative source).

I'm a little skeptical they can go that fast, but their policy with coal has been changing lately, so you never know.

Csnavywx

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #510 on: December 19, 2015, 03:13:11 PM »
IEA:

Quote
The  current  1 900 GW  of  installed  coal  capacity  globally  will  be expanded  as  capacity  under  development  in  Asia  exceeds  the  likely  retirements  in  Europe  and  the
United States.
   While   improving   renewable   technology   can   make   new   coal   plant investments unattractive, once a coal power plant is constructed and operating, given low fuel generation costs, it is  likely  to  run  for  a  long  time,  especially  in  places  with  power  shortages.  Therefore,  based  only  on variable  costs,  the  utilisation  of  the  existing  coal  fleet  can  be  constrained  only  by  very  cheap  gas,  a sizeable CO2 price, or a policy-driven renewable deployment that exceeds demand growth.

Well now, appears somebody has the retirement numbers. The last sentence is particularly potent: You aren't going to kill fossil fuels quickly by making them cheaper. Coal at $50/ton, gas at 1.80/MMBtu(!) and oil at $35/bbl is a recipe for climate disaster without a stiff carbon fee.

Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #511 on: December 19, 2015, 04:38:05 PM »
http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/paris-agreement-is-indias-defeat-says-rajendra-singh_1836389.html
Quote
The world was looking upon Paris to force the US to commit itself to paying the damages that the three previous summits had imposed on it, but Washington managed to liberate itself from all its liability, said Singh who won the Stockholm Water Prize for 2015 for his efforts to improve water security in rural areas.

In fact, the whole `developed` world, led by the US, managed to make the `developing` and `least developed` countries acquiesce in ridding itself of its historical responsibility of causing climate change, he said.
Quote
Singh said there were 40,000 people attending the summit, but the real "decision makers" made up a `blue zone` of no more than 400.

Three hundred out of those 400 spoke the truth and the remaining 100 were there to grind their own axe, he said.

"Eventually, these 100 powerful people, assisted by at least 1600 `officials`, `experts`, scientists, etc., had their way. All others - 37,600 delegates - belonged to the `green zone` or `side zone` who had little voice," Singh said.

Even the one percent Indians, who are among the polluters, were on the side of the cunning movers and shakers from the developed countries.

Singh expressed dismay over the attitude of the government negotiators.

"The government only pitched for its right to use coal to provide for India`s energy needs. We clearly were completely out of touch with our own heritage and leadership and fell for the wiles of globlisation and commercialisation," Singh added.

GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #512 on: December 19, 2015, 08:10:36 PM »
I attended LSE's Post COP21 Panel. Video of session is here . At 1:09:30 in the video I got the first question in (as usual) but I made it too complex (as usual) and didn't get useful answers.

I tried to ask..
 
1. How do "missing feedbacks" affect the "remaining carbon budget"? (No answer)

2. If lots of people move into cities will th embodied carbon break the remaining carbon budget? (Stern said cities could be green.)

3. Isn't the UK cheating on our carbon emissions? e.g. We close steel works and our emissions reduce because we don't count the carbon from imported steel. (Stern said something about fugative emiissions but didn't mention cheating.)
 
When I overcome my embarrassment I will actually listen to this on the video and see if these recollections are correct.
 
I spoke to Stern afterwards and he recognised the difference between production and consumption emissions. I also spoke to Pete Betts, (the UK's negotiator in Paris?), he said he could find out about the missing feedbacks and the remaining carbon budget. Will post any reply here.

I now have a recording of Kevin Anderson on Radio 4 via an external device to keep a copy before it disappears (unlike "Will the US abolish the Confederate flag?") . Listening to it  I find Kevin's remarks rather mild but it did have strong twitter debate https://twitter.com/KevinClimate/status/676307620546945024
 
George Monbiot's summary is stronger (and suits me):
"By comparison to what it could have been, it’s a miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it’s a disaster."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2015/dec/12/paris-climate-deal-governments-fossil-fuels
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #513 on: December 20, 2015, 11:48:53 PM »
It looks like the New York Times, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, think that full US compliance to the CoP21 agreement will remain a pipe dream due to Congress's intransigence on this topic:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/20/business/energy-environment/to-achieve-paris-climate-goals-us-will-need-new-laws.html?_r=0

Extract: "The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, a big-business advocate, dismissed the goals set in Paris. “None of the commitments made, including those by the U.S., are binding, and many aren’t even complete,” the group said in a statement. “Moreover, Congress must appropriate any funds that the Obama administration has pledged.”

The administration has set ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years, and it may well make some progress with the laws that are on the books. But so long as Congress and the White House are at loggerheads over climate policy, regulations that would prompt reforms throughout American business are likely to remain a pipe dream."

Edit: wili, I have corrected 'intransigence'.  Thanks
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 08:42:57 PM by AbruptSLR »
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wili

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #514 on: December 21, 2015, 06:29:23 AM »
I think you mean 'intransigence'
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #515 on: December 21, 2015, 12:54:01 PM »
It's worth noting that the "U.S. Chamber of Commerce" despite its name is not a government agency and has no official status whatsoever but is simply one of thousands of lobbying groups with misleading names such as the "New York Federal Reserve Bank" which again is a private membership organization. The Chamber fronts for its largest remaining donors on their issues and does not poll the membership for its views -- only a fraction would support this particular initiative.

I'm not sure if the NYTimes still gets significant revenue from ads (or anything else ... not that it matters to Carlos Slim the largest shareholder) these days but the Chamber has never hesitated from carrot/stick in terms of placement/boycotting so the Times has never hesitated about third-party factualizing the inevitability of their perspective.

Ask yourself, if the Chamber had simply sent out a self-serving press release themselves, who would read it? What was this worth to the Chamber to have the NYTimes run an endorsement wrapper for the press release?

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #516 on: December 21, 2015, 03:43:58 PM »
People Who Were Certain Climate Change Is Fake Are Now Certain That Paris Can’t Stop It
Quote
The most unintentionally revealing commentary on the Paris climate agreement came from National Review senior editor David Pryce-Jones. “I know next to nothing about the technicalities of the subject, but caught on television news bulletins great wafts of hot air,” he confessed. “It was highly enjoyable to hear President Obama claiming to be saving the planet that his foreign policy has done much to endanger … You don’t have to be a cynic to think that most countries, China and India in the lead, are never going to do anything that might harm their economic development, nor will rich countries commit economic suicide.” This was a real-time window into the conservative mind processing the Paris climate agreement, beginning from a point of frank incomprehension of (and lack of interest in) any specifics of the issue, and proceeding immediately to the conviction that the deal would fail.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/12/climate-change-isnt-real-also-cant-be-stopped.html#
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #517 on: December 21, 2015, 08:41:40 PM »
The link leads to a website for the "Breakthrough Energy Coalition" started by Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and other innovators (& announced at CoP21).  While I wish these innovators well, I believe that climate change will cause a lot of damage before their research on sustainable energy has a meaningful impact on GHG concentrations:

http://www.breakthroughenergycoalition.com/en/index.html
http://www.breakthroughenergycoalition.com/en/news.html

Extract:
"Breakthrough Energy Coalition
THE WORLD NEEDS WIDELY AVAILABLE ENERGY that is reliable, affordable and does not produce carbon. The only way to accomplish that goal is by developing new tools to power the world. That innovation will result from a dramatically scaled up public research pipeline linked to truly patient, flexible investments committed to developing the technologies that will create a new energy mix. The Breakthrough Energy Coalition is working together with a growing group of visionary countries who are significantly increasing their public research pipeline through the Mission Innovation initiative to make that future a reality.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #518 on: December 21, 2015, 11:51:39 PM »
Now that CoP21 is over, I think that it is good to re-visit the Climate Interactive Scoreboard after the agreement (see the link & two associated attached images, with the detail showing a 50% CL projection of about 3.75C by 2100, without including the speculative ratcheting of restrictions every 5-years):

https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/scoreboard/

However, I believe that even this 3.75C projected temperature increase by 2100 may err on the side of least drama for reasons including:
- The TCR (transient climate response) was recently linear; however, as the rate of emissions continue to increase TCR now begins to gradually become non-linear.
- The PDO/IPO may likely remain positive for the next one to two decades.
- Climate sensitivity may well increase faster than previously assumed.
- Forests (especially the Amazon Rainforest) may likely degrade significantly faster than previously expected.
- Wildfires will likely become more widespread and will burn more peat than previously expected.
- Masking factors (Aerosols, DSMs, VOCs, etc) and CO2 absorption mechanisms could well dissipate faster than expected.

(I could go on with the list but you get the drift).
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Sleepy

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #519 on: December 22, 2015, 12:42:21 PM »
As I previously almost promised. But I mowed my lawn today, instead of Christmas Eve.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg67344.html#msg67344

Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #520 on: December 22, 2015, 05:09:50 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #521 on: December 26, 2015, 05:37:22 PM »
Per the linked article, believing in the CoP21 goals requires living in the Pollyanna dream-world of negative emissions technology within the next several decades:

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/paris-climate-goals-emissions-drop-35938677

Extract: "If governments are serious about the global warming targets they adopted in Paris, scientists say they have two options: eliminating fossil fuels immediately or finding ways to undo their damage to the climate system in the future.
The first is politically impossible — the world is still hooked on using oil, coal and natural gas — which leaves the option of a major cleanup of the atmosphere later this century.
Yet the landmark Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 countries on Dec. 12, makes no reference to that, which has left some observers wondering whether politicians understand the implications of the goals they signed up for.
"I would say it's the single biggest issue that has to be resolved," said Glen Peters of the Cicero climate research institute in Oslo, Norway.
Scientists refer to this envisioned cleanup job as negative emissions — removing more greenhouse gases from the atmosphere than humans put in it."
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #522 on: December 26, 2015, 06:44:24 PM »
ALSR

Thanks for highlighting the fact that the Climate Interactive Scoreboard may be underpowered. Their FAQs acknowledge this but I wonder if many of its users notice.

Was the Climate Interactive Scoreboard actually used in Paris to make predictions of temperature rises from the INDCs? I remember news reports saying something like "these INDCs mean this temperature rise".

You say
Quote
"some observers wonder[ed] whether politicians understand the implications of the goals they signed up for."
On the specific issue of the gap between models and reality, is there anyone, anywhere trying to bridge this gap (even with an informed guess) and explaining it to policy makers?

(I use ther term "policy makers" rather than "politicians" because it is my experience is that that, in the UK, much of the decision making is formed by officials in governemnt departments, who are not actually politicians.)

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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #523 on: December 27, 2015, 12:16:06 AM »
ALSR

Thanks for highlighting the fact that the Climate Interactive Scoreboard may be underpowered. Their FAQs acknowledge this but I wonder if many of its users notice.

Was the Climate Interactive Scoreboard actually used in Paris to make predictions of temperature rises from the INDCs? I remember news reports saying something like "these INDCs mean this temperature rise".

You say
Quote
"some observers wonder[ed] whether politicians understand the implications of the goals they signed up for."
On the specific issue of the gap between models and reality, is there anyone, anywhere trying to bridge this gap (even with an informed guess) and explaining it to policy makers?

(I use ther term "policy makers" rather than "politicians" because it is my experience is that that, in the UK, much of the decision making is formed by officials in governemnt departments, who are not actually politicians.)

Geoff,
The topic of what policymakers/politicians understand/acknowledge about the reality/implications of climate change is difficult to discuss because there is a combination of ignorance and gamesmanship in play.  The best tool for examining the implications/reality of policymakers'/politicians' actions/inactions is currently the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy, ACME*, being developed by the US Government (preliminary results of which they share with their developed friends).  However, instead of using such tools to make suitable policy to deal with climate change, they (politicians from the developed countries) use such spooky ACME findings to frighten developing countries at CoP21 into not demanding too much, as the spooky ACME findings indicate that developing countries will suffer the most (if no agreement could be reached).  This reduces the likelihood that the developing countries will demand that the developed countries pay for carbon budget that they have used-up ahead of the developing countries.

Furthermore, politicians use other forms of gamesmanship such as saying: (a) that ratcheting up the CoP21 restrictions every five years will allow then to limit global mean temperature increases to 2.7C; and (b) that future negative emissions technology allows them to emit now and have their children pay later.

Best,
ASLR

* For information about ACME & accurate climate model projections see:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.0.html

Edit: With a hat tip to Sleepy also see the following video on climate sensitivity discussing how Roy Thompson told the delegates at CoP21 that ECS is likely about 50% higher than previously expected (by AR5):


« Last Edit: December 27, 2015, 09:59:12 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #524 on: December 27, 2015, 07:07:19 PM »
The following link focuses on UN Secretary Ban's role leading to the CoP21 agreement; which to me shows just how fragile (including the role of George W. Bush) the process was leading to achieve even this limited success:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/bcea69729c7d4d2eab257b3d8978250d/ap-interview-climate-deal-caps-long-quest-un-chief
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #525 on: December 29, 2015, 06:27:28 PM »
Why zero is a better climate target than 2 degrees
Quote
One important element of the Paris climate accord has been somewhat overshadowed in all the press coverage. Before the whole thing fades from the news cycle, I want to take a moment to celebrate it.

I'm talking about the shared goal, endorsed by 195 nations, to reduce net global greenhouse gas emissions to zero by the end of the century.

Zero. Zilch. Nada. Let that roll around in your mindgrape for a moment. It has a ring to it. ...
http://www.vox.com/2015/12/21/10629172/climate-change-target-zero
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #526 on: January 02, 2016, 05:29:51 PM »
World Bank Support to Cities to Expand – Key Pieces of the Puzzle in Addressing Climate Change
Quote
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Much of the power to reduce climate emissions lies now with cities rather than national governments
- There is a window of opportunity to build climate-smart cities in developing countries, which account for 90% of urban growth
- The World Bank is increasing not just its financing in this area, but also its knowledge and capacity initiatives to help address urban infrastructure challenges
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2015/12/07/cities-get-star-treatment-at-global-climate-conference-in-paris
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #527 on: January 06, 2016, 04:03:21 AM »
U.S.:  EPA looks to build on 2015 wins this year
Quote
In a blog post on the EPA website, administrator Gina McCarthy said the agency will look in 2016 to help implement the goals of the landmark international climate agreement reached in Paris last month.

The agency will finalize rules this year to cut carbon pollution from heavy-duty vehicles, she wrote, as well as a rule to limit methane leaks from oil and gas operations. The methane rule — which targets a pollutant with 25 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide — is seen as a major step President Obama can take to address climate change in his final year in office.

The EPA will also work with other countries to reduce the use of high-polluting refrigerant chemicals, a push the agency threw its weight behind in November.

The agency, she said, will also provide air quality and greenhouse gas monitoring assistance to other countries, as well as work with major companies to encourage financing for climate change mitigation efforts under the Paris climate deal.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/264695-epa-chief-outlines-2016-agenda
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #528 on: January 07, 2016, 10:03:16 AM »
A new blog post from Kevin Anderson:

The hidden agenda: how veiled techno-utopias shore up the Paris Agreement

His "tentative reflections":

Quote
Here we are a fortnight or so on from Paris – and the dust has all but settled. Turn on the radio and the BBC is reporting on whether the UK should expand its London airport capacity at Gatwick or Heathrow. No reference to Paris, CO2 emissions or the plight of millions who will suffer the consequences of such decisions, but will only ever see aircraft streaking across the sky 35000 feet above. Next up, the BBC reports on how the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change, its Chief Scientific Advisor and the UK’s Environment Agency all enthusiastically support the development of indigenous shale gas – and yet all forget to mention that the UK Government has just reneged on its support for carbon capture and storage. Another high-carbon energy source at odds with Paris and 2°C carbon budgets is simply added to UK’s portfolio of North Sea oil and gas without even a squirm of unease from those authorities who should know better.

So where are we now? Future techno-utopias, pennies for the poor, more fossil fuels, co-opted NGOs and an expert community all too often silenced by fear of reprisals and reduced funding. It doesn’t need to be like this. Forget the vacuous content, it’s the wonderful spirit of the Paris Agreement and the French people on which we need to build – and fast! The pursuit of a low-carbon future could do much worse than be guided by the open concepts of liberté, égalité et fraternité.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #529 on: January 07, 2016, 10:33:26 AM »
Thanks Jim, good one by Kevin Andersson. Another qoute.
Quote
Not surprisingly the vested interests won out – and whilst the headline goals of the Paris Agreement are to be welcomed, the five year review timeframe eliminates any serious chance of maintaining emissions within even carbon budgets for a slim chance of 2°C. Science and careful analysis could have offered so much more – but instead we are left having to pray that speculative negative emission technologies will compensate for our own hubris.

Here the drunken hubris part of our society is already screaming; -"Look, it's winter, no problems!" after a couple days of arctic temperatures breaking the negative end of the anomalies. People here are more occupied with discussing immigrants.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #530 on: January 07, 2016, 11:19:27 AM »
Apparently a very short honeymoon in Paris.
Terry

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #531 on: January 07, 2016, 09:48:34 PM »
If a company wants to get around the Paris CoP21 pact, soon all they will have to do is to file a lawsuit to protect "loss of expected profit".

http://www.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/2016/jan/climate-change-ttp-ttip-international-trade-eu

Extract: "A powerful legal tool designed to protect foreign investors could undermine commitments made in Paris last month to reign in climate warming emissions.
The tool is tucked into two pending trade deals President Obama wants to finalize this year. The language is de rigueur for trade agreements and is designed to protect against what's known as "loss of expected profits."
TransCanada, citing this clause in the North American Free Trade Agreement, on Wednesday filed a $15 billion lawsuit against the United States for blocking its Keystone XL pipeline.
The language gives companies an avenue to challenge regulations that undermine investment plans, and it could chill or even curtail global efforts to trim carbon emissions.
Almost 200 countries pledged last month to cut global warming gases in an attempt to keep temperatures “well below” 2 C above pre-industrial times.
But under either trade pact, if a new air rule, for instance, creates disincentive for an international energy company to build a coal plant, it can sue the government for investment losses if the company can prove the policy was adopted after initial plans for the plant were made.
Both trade agreements limit "the ability of governments to put in place climate and other public interest policies" and give  "huge power" to big polluters," said Illana Solomon, director of the Sierra Club’s Responsible Trade Program. 
The two trade deals in question capture most of the world's economic might."

PS: I note that the title of this thread is overly hopeful as the Paris Pact is not a treaty.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #532 on: January 11, 2016, 04:30:41 AM »
The linked SciAm article indicates that some scientists are promoting that when nations calculate the INDC's CO2eqiv that they use the GWP10 instead of GWP10 for methane:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-bad-of-a-greenhouse-gas-is-methane/

Extract: "At present, nations report methane emissions in terms of CO2 equivalents, using GWP100 as the conversion factor. This allows nations, such as the United States, that use natural gas to generate electricity to present a cleaner façade to the world than they have in reality, he said.
Payne and two other scientists wrote a letter to the U.S. delegation at the United Nations' climate change summit this month suggesting that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change require nations to use a 10-year global warming potential, or GWP10, in their emissions inventory. This would allow quicker curbs on methane, they wrote."

Edit: For those who do not know GWP10 for methane per Shindell (2009) it is 130 (see attached plot), so GWP10/GWP100 = 130/34 = 3.82.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2016, 04:04:32 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #533 on: January 11, 2016, 09:06:18 AM »
Posting this because it doesn't seem to have surfaced elsewhere on the forum. Odd choice of newspaper to communicate with the world at large? I like the Indy but it's hardly high circulation.
Quote
In a joint letter to The Independent, some of the world’s top climate scientists launch a blistering attack on the deal, warning that it offers “false hope” that could ultimately prove to be counterproductive in the battle to curb global warming.

The letter, which carries eleven signatures including professors Peter Wadhams and Stephen Salter, of the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh, warns that the Paris Agreement is dangerously inadequate.

Because of the Paris failure, the academics say the world’s only chance of saving itself from rampant global warming is a giant push into controversial and largely untested geo-engineering technologies that seek to cool the planet by manipulating the Earth’s climate system.

The scientists, who also include University of California professor James Kennett, argues that “deadly flaws” in the deal struck in the French capital last month mean it gives the impression that global warming is now being properly addressed when in fact the measures fall woefully short of what is needed to avoid runaway climate change.

This means that the kind of extreme action that needs to be taken immediately to have any chance of avoiding devastating global warming, such as massive and swift cuts to worldwide carbon emissions – which only fell by about 1 per cent last year – will not now be taken, they say.
More, and text of letter here.

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #534 on: January 11, 2016, 01:56:57 PM »
As ASLR has noted, the final Paris accord did not turn out to be, legally, a "treaty", so I have updated the title of this thread.  The U.N. refers to it as the Paris Agreement.   :)
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #535 on: January 11, 2016, 06:47:29 PM »
The linked article indicates that the oil majors were not surprised by the out-come of the Paris Agreement and that they do not expect to have any stranded (unused) assets, so climate change remains low on their list of priorities (say compared to the current low prices for crude oil):

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060030392

Extract: ""My guess -- and I'm guessing -- is that climate change is pretty low down on their list," said Kauzlarich, now the co-director of George Mason University's Center for Energy Science and Policy. The American oil majors, he hypothesized, "are heaving a sigh of relief" that the deal wasn't more stringent.

Jeffers of Exxon said the company sees oil and gas playing "significant roles in the energy mix" in meeting growing demand until at least 2040.
"We don't see any stranded assets," he said. "We think all our assets will be required."
Alan Krupnick, senior fellow and co-director for the Center for Energy and Climate Economics at Resources for the Future, said major oil companies, "whether they're quiet or not," have incorporated climate regulations into their plans."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #536 on: January 18, 2016, 05:06:19 PM »
A video full of sensible comments, with people like Jason Box, Kevin Anderson and others.

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #537 on: January 18, 2016, 10:07:05 PM »
The achieve any of the Paris Agreement goals, negative emissions technology, NET is needed.  The linked reference discusses the limits to the various NET approaches:

Pete Smith, Steven J. Davis, Felix Creutzig, Sabine Fuss, Jan Minx, Benoit Gabrielle, Etsushi Kato, Robert B. Jackson, Annette Cowie, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Joeri Rogelj, Philippe Ciais, Jennifer Milne, Josep G. Canadell, David McCollum, Glen Peters, Robbie Andrew, Volker Krey, Gyami Shrestha, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Gasser, Arnulf Grübler, Wolfgang K. Heidug, Matthias Jonas, Chris D. Jones, Florian Kraxner, Emma Littleton, Jason Lowe, José Roberto Moreira, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Michael Obersteiner, Anand Patwardhan, Mathis Rogner, Ed Rubin, Ayyoob Sharifi, Asbjørn Torvanger, Yoshiki Yamagata, Jae Edmonds, & Cho Yongsung et al. (2016), "Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 6, Pages: 42–50, doi:10.1038/nclimate2870


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2870.html


Abstract: "To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals."

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #538 on: January 19, 2016, 05:24:13 PM »
Quote
ABU DHABI: French energy giant Engie, the owner of the Hazelwood brown coal power generator in Victoria, has launched a major public-private initiative that aims to ensure that 1,000GW of solar capacity is installed around the world by 2030.

The plan has been dubbed the Terrawatt initiative – the equivalent of one trillion watts of solar electricity, or one million megawatts – and it is the first significant engagement from the private sector to deliver on the ambitious climate target agreed in Paris in December by 195 governments.

The 1,000GW target might be below some of the more optimistic forecasts for 2030, particularly those by Greenpeace and others (and it should be noted that Greenpeace, which predicts up to 1,800GW of solar, has been the most accurate forecaster in the last 10 years).

But it is broadly in line – and in some cases even passes – with the target that institutions such as the International Energy Agency says is needed under its 450 scenario, which would achieve a 2C temperature cap. The Paris deal aims at “well below” 2C, and even to try and reach a 1.5C cap.

There has been some considerable doubt about whether the promises made in the Paris agreement will translate into action by individual government at policy level, and by the private sector in investment.

The fact that this initiative is driven by Engie – a major utility – makes it even more interesting. It might be dismissed as greenwash by some, and time will tell if it is or not. But by making such a major commitment on solar, its incoming president and CEO, Isabelle Kocher..., is nailing her colours to the mast.

Engie is a giant of a company, with operations in 70 countries and 150,000 employees, and – probably embarrassingly for its new focus on sustainable energy – it operates Hazelwood, the ageing generator that is labeled the dirtiest in the world. It is proving to be an embarrassment to a company hoping to be taken seriously on its commitment to a new energy future.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/hazelwood-owner-engie-launches-push-for-1000gw-of-solar-36363
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #539 on: January 21, 2016, 01:16:38 AM »
The linked reference indicates that the 2C target adopted by the Paris Agreement, would mean much higher temperatures over land, even if this target is achieved, as the temperatures over the oceans increase more slowly:

Sonia I. Seneviratne, Markus G. Donat, Andy J. Pitman, Reto Knutti & Robert L. Wilby (2016), "Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets", Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16542


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature16542.html
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/nature16542-s1.pdf

Abstract: "Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean."
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #540 on: January 22, 2016, 08:31:27 PM »
U.S.:  Court Rejects a Bid to Block the Clean Power Plan
Quote
By rejecting the petition on Thursday, a three-judge panel of the court required states to move forward with plans to shut down polluting coal plants and build new wind and solar sources.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/22/us/politics/court-rejects-bid-to-delay-obama-rule-on-climate-change.html
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #541 on: January 22, 2016, 08:50:06 PM »
Getting 196 Countries To Agree On Climate Change Was ‘The Easy Part’
Quote
DAVOS, Switzerland -- For all those who thought settling the Paris climate agreement was enough to lead to a low-carbon economy, it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee.

This message comes from none other than Christiana Figueres, who was instrumental in bringing 196 countries together to agree on the framework to limit runaway global warming.

Figueres, the executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said that while the talks were a success, "frankly, after 20 years of working towards that goal, that was the easy part."

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, she said it was now imperative to move from good words to action.

"We need to understand the clear signal from Paris and the clear risks and work out what are we all going to do," Figueres said, adding that global carbon emissions need to peak within the next five to 10 years.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/christiana-figueres-paris-climate-agreement_us_569f7c39e4b0875553c25c52?159rizfr=
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #542 on: January 25, 2016, 09:34:10 PM »
The attached image from the linked Dec 7 2015 "Global Carbon Project" GCP Budget-2015 document, shows that if China, India, the USA & the EU follow their current Paris Pledges, the rest of the world will not be able to emit any carbon by 2030 if there is to be a 66% chance of staying below the 2C target:

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/15/files/GCP_budget_2015_v1.pdf


Edit: I believe that the numbers in the GCP Budget 2015 report err on the side of least drama.
Edit2: If I have not been clear, the GCP Budget report seems to be a lot of US Government sponsored happy talk that was delivered at Paris to boost moral and to distract delegates from the fact that measure global GHG concentrations continue to follow a BAU trend regardless of government accounting.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2016, 05:20:16 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #543 on: January 25, 2016, 10:27:48 PM »
ASLR

Quote
Edit: I believe that the numbers in the GCP Budget 2015 report err on the side of least drama.

To say the least.  Considering the numbers you and others are coming up with in the topic about Global Surface Air Temps about where we are today, the understated numbers from your chart above , the fact that there are a host of emissions that various countries hide (China and their actual coal consumption) or don't count (the US and its methane emissions from the fossil industries), the inevitable rise in natural emissions which are coming, deforestation continuing, etc....And the presumption that we are actually at the peak of emissions - I doubt that as the flattening we have seen in the last year is most likely attributable to the global economic slowdown as further bubbles can always be blown.

Bet we hit that situation closer to 2020 than 2030 if we have not already reached the point where staying below 2C is possible in a technical sense.  In a practical real world sense I have no doubt we have little chance of staying below 3C of rise.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #544 on: January 25, 2016, 10:42:44 PM »
ASLR

Quote
Edit: I believe that the numbers in the GCP Budget 2015 report err on the side of least drama.

To say the least.  Considering the numbers you and others are coming up with in the topic about Global Surface Air Temps about where we are today, the understated numbers from your chart above , the fact that there are a host of emissions that various countries hide (China and their actual coal consumption) or don't count (the US and its methane emissions from the fossil industries), the inevitable rise in natural emissions which are coming, deforestation continuing, etc....And the presumption that we are actually at the peak of emissions - I doubt that as the flattening we have seen in the last year is most likely attributable to the global economic slowdown as further bubbles can always be blown.

Bet we hit that situation closer to 2020 than 2030 if we have not already reached the point where staying below 2C is possible in a technical sense.  In a practical real world sense I have no doubt we have little chance of staying below 3C of rise.

JimD,

In the GCP plot shown in Repy #542, the top curve labeled 66% chance of staying below 2C is not a projection of what is going to happen.  Rather it is an imaginary line indicating that if the EU, the USA, China & India follow the pathway for their current pledges, and they wanted to stay below a 2C increase, then they would need to convince (by force of arms?) the rest of the world to emit no more carbon than indicated by the grey area.  Which of course is a fantasy w.r.t. emissions, but my statement about the plot erring on the side of least drama, ESLD, means that all of the assumptions that the Global Carbon Project used to construct the plot also depend on wishful thinking.

Best,
ASLR
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #545 on: January 28, 2016, 12:29:09 AM »
The linked article indicates that the success of the Paris agreement hinges on rapid upgrading of carbon accountancy; which will break if one tries to scale-up the current model:

Jeff Tollefson (2016), "Paris climate deal hinges on better carbon accountancy
Local expertise is required to provide detailed emissions reports", Nature, Volume: 529, Pages:450–451, doi:10.1038/529450a

http://www.nature.com/news/paris-climate-deal-hinges-on-better-carbon-accountancy-1.19237

Extract: "“The current model will break if you try and scale it up,” says Gillenwater. “We need more and better people and we need a different model.”"
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #546 on: January 28, 2016, 04:46:53 PM »
Starting in May 2016 UN representatives will work to develop "rules, modalities and procedures" for a new UN carbon market, that will allow nations to earn money to help implement their Paris Pledges.   Such carbon markets (cap & trade) can be very challenging to manage correctly and numerous such plans have failed in the past.  A revenue neutral carbon pricing plan would be theoretically superior, but government officials love the idea that they can gather money, power and influence by selling carbon credits that are subject to corruption, rigging & manipulation.  We will see what happens:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/global-carbon-market-faces-diplomatic-minefield-as-crude-slumps

Extract: "Negotiators have given themselves less than a year to agree on rules for a universal market-based emissions-reduction system under the Paris climate pact. To get there, they have to overcome any objections from nations reliant on fossil fuels and create a framework that covers an unprecedented range of national emissions targets.
To make the market, climate diplomats will have to convince nations they need to consume less fossil fuel amid a commodity slump that has pushed crude to a 12-year low and left coal prices at the weakest since at least 2007. Envoys are seeking a universal system for all countries, not just rich ones, to fund clean-energy projects anywhere in the world, earning tradable credits they can use for emission-reduction targets at home.
“I don’t think this is going to be an easy walk,” said Georg Borsting, a UN climate negotiator for Norway for 20 years. “We’re establishing something that can live through shifts in energy prices. A few years from now you might have a very different landscape.”
Starting May 16 in Bonn, the UN’s Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice will consider how nations can install or expand their own carbon markets. The same body plans to have “rules, modalities and procedures” for a new UN market ready for approval at a meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco, Nov. 7, according to the UN’s website. Talks can be extended after that.
“The Paris deal provides the framework that allows for definition of exact rules and, ultimately, tighter emission-reduction targets,” Ingo Ramming, the London-based co-head of commodity solutions at Commerzbank AG, said by phone. “Now the real work starts.”"

Edit: I attached the associated image that shows that while they are negotiating the carbon market (cap & trade) now at 12-year low oil prices, the plan will not take effect until 2020, so until then cheap oil consumption will increase, and the Paris Pact will encourage oil prices to remain low until 2020 because oil production countries will want to sell as much oil before they are hit with carbon credits in 2020.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 05:33:58 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #547 on: January 28, 2016, 05:12:29 PM »
France plans renewed climate diplomacy blitz to protect Paris deal
Quote
A proposed UN progress review in two years is critical she says. “If everything goes well we will have more mobilisation of countries by 2018.”

Equally important is delivery of long term climate plans up to 2050, a little-reported element of the Paris deal but one the French and the UN believe could turn the tide on fossil fuels.

China, France and the US have committed to working on long-term scenarios, while the EU is looking how it can fund research among member states.

A Deep Decarbonisation study published by the Paris-based IDDRI think tank last September said avoiding 2C was still possible – if governments moved fast this decade.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/01/27/france-plans-renewed-climate-diplomacy-blitz-protect-paris-deal/
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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #548 on: January 29, 2016, 08:39:15 PM »
Keeping the World below 2° Is a $12.1 Trillion Investment Opportunity, BNEF Report Says
Quote
LONDON: Keeping the world below the 2 degrees Celsius pathway presents a US$12.1 trillion investment opportunity over the next 25 years, a new analysis states.

The report Mapping the Gap: The Road From Paris, presented today by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) at the 2016 Investor Summit on Climate Risk hosted by Ceres, shows the opportunities and challenges of filling the ‘gap’ between the business-as-usual (BAU) investment in renewable energy and what is needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
...
In fact, if governments and business leaders take no additional steps to what they have planned today, the investment opportunity for tackling climate change is US$6.9 trillion, or US$277 billion per year.

The ‘gap’ between this scenario and what is needed to keep the world safe is US$5.2 trillion, or US$208 billion per year. To put the numbers in perspective, authors point out this is far less than the US$454 billion per year that people in the US ask every year to get their auto loans.
http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/keeping-the-world-below-2-degrees-is-a-121-trillion-investment-opportunity-bnef-report-says/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« Reply #549 on: January 30, 2016, 07:31:43 PM »
Climate Change 2016: Investors Vow To Pour Trillions Of Dollars Into Clean Energy Transition
Quote
The wave of optimism that followed last month’s climate change deal in Paris is wending its way down Wall Street. Investors and financiers meeting in New York this week vowed to harness their trillions of dollars in collective wealth to develop clean energy projects and curb the planet’s carbon emissions.

Whether they actually deliver on that promise could mean the difference between winning and losing the fight against climate change. Only with a dramatic spike in spending — and a total shift away from fossil fuel investments — can countries have a shot at avoiding dangerous levels of global warming, according to policy leaders and climate experts speaking at the Investor Summit on Climate Risk at the United Nations headquarters Wednesday.
...
The financial sector’s participation is considered critical for ensuring the goals of the Paris climate conference are actually achieved. Last December, the leaders of nearly 200 nations agreed to limit the rise of global average temperatures to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-Industrial levels.

To hit that target, the world must invest at least $12.1 trillion in renewable electricity — including solar and wind power, battery storage and energy efficiency — within the next 25 years, analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in a new report. So far, countries are on track to spend $6.9 trillion by 2040, resulting in an investment gap of $5.2 billion, by BNEF’s estimate....
http://www.ibtimes.com/climate-change-2016-investors-vow-pour-trillions-dollars-clean-energy-transition-2285080
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