2015 El Niño?

[wili]

As the originator of the thread, I heartily concur.

[nukefix]

Monthly sea-level anomaly for June.

[deep octopus]

The attached graphic from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) shows that the two areas of convection in the northwest Pacific have seen increased odds of development to tropical cyclones. The easternmost storm, with high probability of TC development, is now tropical storm Chan-Hom, with sustained winds of 35 knots (40 mph), with potential to grow to 80 knots (92 mph) by next Sunday.

Satellite imagery of Chan-Hom's development is shown in the second attachment. Click it to animate (hopefully it works.) It's relatively far north, at 10 N, however with the twin disturbance mirroring this storm in the southern hemisphere (also given high risk of TC development per JTWC), potential for a powerful WWB looms. The southern disturbance, known as tropical cyclone twenty-five, has sustained winds of 30 knots (35 mph), with potential to strengthen rapidly to 55 knots (63 mph) by tomorrow. Satellite imagery of TC 25 is attached.

[Lord M Vader]

And now we have it confirmed: rare twin cyclones Chan-hom and an aforemented "Raquel" (or something like that) which together are setting up an impressive WWB...

See earth null school! http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-184.75,3.14,1024

Another low pressure is located further east of Chan-hom, further helping our WWB.

//LMV

[James Lovejoy]

What do you think of NOAA's MEI?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

[Lord M Vader]

Our current MJO may rival the superstrong one in March, see latest forecast here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

In the Western Pacific there are now several lows impacting our WWB. Raquel and Chan-hom is notable OFC, but east of Chan-hom ther eis another low which has a possibility to develope into a TC later this week. Raquel is undertaking a more or less southerly track meaning that once/if the low east of Chan-hom is moving west it will overtake Chan-homs position and do the job to help the WWB..

See: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

//LMV

[plinius]

Concerning West Wind Bursts


I suppose we should hold tight - quite every possible indicator is suggesting now that we might match or even beat 1997/98.


Img from Philipp Klotzbach:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach
via Karsten Haustein
http://www.wzforum.de/forum2/read.php?6,3013765,3059981#msg-3059981


P.S.: @Lovejoy, y, find the MEI pretty useful.

[deep octopus]

Not sure if there's a way to embed tweets, but this is from @BOM_Qld (BOM Queensland):

Visualisation of twin TCs: #TCRaquel (south) and #ChanHom (north). Thanks: http://earth.nullschool.net/  and JMA

https://twitter.com/BOM_Qld/status/616139234068574208

An animation of satellite and Null School renderings of the twin cyclones were prepared in their tweet.

[Michael Hauber]

Concerning West Wind Bursts


I suppose we should hold tight - quite every possible indicator is suggesting now that we might match or even beat 1997/98.


Img from Philipp Klotzbach:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach
via Karsten Haustein
http://www.wzforum.de/forum2/read.php?6,3013765,3059981#msg-3059981


P.S.: @Lovejoy, y, find the MEI pretty useful.

The 2015 figure is obviously year to date.  Are the previous year's figures year to date or for the entire year?  WWB activity tends to strengthen later in an el nino year (but move further east), so this year's figure could come out even higher if this trend continues.  From watching TAO TRITON data I have noticed that this year the westerly activity has been more consistent than 97, but I'm pretty sure that the stronger westerly wind bursts in the first half of 97 were significantly stronger and over a larger area than they have been this year.  This seems to be reflected by the fact that current subsurface temperatures in the east Pacific were a lot warmer by now in 97.  Even still the surface is warmer than same date 97, and the major models show a high chance of beating 97.

[Csnavywx]

Mike,

That's a very good point on the subsurface temps. We're a good bit behind on that.

However, 2015 has some opportunity to make up a lot of lost ground. 1997 went quiet after June 20th or so and easterly trades resumed for quite some time, weakening the subsurface significantly between July and August. 2015 has an opportunity to play significant catchup since this WWB is starting now and the EKW reinforcement will likely show up late in the month and through August. 1997 again had another (somewhat weaker) WWB very late in summer, so we'll have to see just how all of this plays out. As it is, a strong event is quite likely and a super is still in the realm of possibility.

[Bruce Steele]

Octopus, The Twitter embed worked great !  Textbook WWB and the MJO is still getting stronger.
Skepticalscience has some interesting info on a potential driver for Super El Ninos. Maybe we should be watching for a high pressure system over South Australia and a low in the South Pacific ? 

[James Lovejoy]

@Bruce Steele
Skepticalscience has some interesting info on a potential driver for Super El Ninos. Maybe we should be watching for a high pressure system over South Australia and a low in the South Pacific ?

Unfortunately the best indication that I've found is the discredited SOI.  What we need is comparison of Darwin with something 1000 miles South of Tahiti.

[deep octopus]

This is to be my last post on the forum for about 2-3 weeks as I will be traveling and disconnecting.

The attached shows the SST anomaly chart by OSPO for July 2nd. The twin cyclones Raquel and Chan-Hom promise to shift the seascape ever towards a strong El Niño. I'll be curious to see how things turn out.

Take care all. See you in a few weeks.

[Tor Bejnar]

Traveling mercies, deep octopus.

[AbruptSLR]

After a six week vacation from posting, it is great to see how everyone stepped-up to keep this thread up to the minute on our increasingly probable strong El Nino event this year.

To add some simple updates:

The first attached image shows that the 30-day moving average SOI issued yesterday by the BoM has moved down to -17.0 and will like continue it's downward tend for some time to come.

The second attached image also from the BoM compares the recent (2015) cloud cover near the equatorial date line to the 2014 and 2013 conditions; which shows that strong El Nino conditions seem to be establishing themselves so far this year.

The third attached image from Albany U. shows continuing projected WWB activity from July 5 thru July 12, 2015.

It is nice to be back.

Best ASLR

[Tor Bejnar]

From the ASI blog, Bill Fothergill likes to a NOAA site showing recalculated region 3.4 values, which remove the present from being a full blown El Niño (whereas an El Niño had been in place since the NH autumn).  Is this an accurate interpretation?

Does this recalculating (and lots of etc.) have any relation to some here focusing on BOM data and not on NOAA data?

[oren]

Welcome back ASLR. Your presence was sorely missed.

[Lord M Vader]

Welcome back ASLR! You have been missed!

//LMV

[AbruptSLR]

From the ASI blog, Bill Fothergill likes to a NOAA site showing recalculated region 3.4 values, which remove the present from being a full blown El Niño (whereas an El Niño had been in place since the NH autumn).  Is this an accurate interpretation?

Does this recalculating (and lots of etc.) have any relation to some here focusing on BOM data and not on NOAA data?

Tor,

Physics is physics and it does not really matter that NOAA has recalculated some prior data, nor does this caste any shadow on the BoM data.  Scientists frequently re-evaluate old data; nevertheless, it is very clear that the current El Nino conditions are continuing to strengthen and all models (European, American, Australian, etc.) indicate that this strengthening will continue through at least the boreal mid-Fall of 2015.

Best,
ASLR

[Tor Bejnar]

Thanks, and yes, welcome back ASLR.  'Hope your travels were fun and interesting.

[plinius]

Tor,

Physics is physics and it does not really matter that NOAA has recalculated some prior data, nor does this caste any shadow on the BoM data.  Scientists frequently re-evaluate old data; nevertheless, it is very clear that the current El Nino conditions are continuing to strengthen and all models (European, American, Australian, etc.) indicate that this strengthening will continue through at least the boreal mid-Fall of 2015.

Best,
ASLR

I think the more important statement to make would be the continuous scale. The El Nino Event was before the recalculating by a very narrow margin over the limits, now it is just exactly below the limits. Has the evaluation of the strength of last year's event changed? Not at all, we just passed through a completely arbitrary limit. This demonstrates nicely, how senseless such limits are. Who cares if our definition calls that an El Nino or not? The farmer in Peru will be interested in the value of the ENSO/ONI/whatever index, but not the name we give to it...

[AbruptSLR]

The attached image was issued today by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -16.9:

[AbruptSLR]

Even though NOAA may have recalculated some of their old Nino 3.4 data, their current data issued for the week centered on July 1, 2015 (see below) keeps the Nino 3.4 index at a relatively high value of 1.4; with the other Nino indices also remaining relatively strong:


                        Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 25FEB2015     26.1-0.1     26.8 0.1     27.5 0.6     29.3 1.2
 04MAR2015     25.8-0.5     26.9 0.1     27.5 0.5     29.3 1.1
 11MAR2015     26.1-0.3     26.8-0.2     27.6 0.5     29.2 1.0
 18MAR2015     26.5 0.0     27.3 0.2     27.8 0.6     29.4 1.2
 25MAR2015     27.4 1.2     27.8 0.6     28.0 0.6     29.3 1.1
 01APR2015     27.4 1.4     27.9 0.6     28.2 0.7     29.5 1.1
 08APR2015     26.7 0.9     27.9 0.5     28.4 0.7     29.6 1.2
 15APR2015     26.8 1.3     28.3 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.7 1.3
 22APR2015     26.7 1.5     28.4 1.0     28.7 1.0     29.9 1.3
 29APR2015     26.8 1.9     28.3 1.0     28.8 1.0     30.0 1.4
 06MAY2015     26.9 2.3     28.4 1.2     28.8 1.0     29.9 1.2
 13MAY2015     26.4 2.1     28.2 1.1     28.8 1.0     29.8 1.1
 20MAY2015     26.6 2.6     28.2 1.2     28.9 1.1     29.8 1.1
 27MAY2015     26.3 2.6     28.2 1.4     29.0 1.3     29.9 1.1
 03JUN2015     25.3 1.9     28.1 1.4     29.0 1.2     30.0 1.2
 10JUN2015     25.7 2.6     28.1 1.5     29.0 1.3     29.9 1.1
 17JUN2015     25.4 2.7     28.2 1.8     29.0 1.4     29.9 1.1
 24JUN2015     25.1 2.6     28.1 1.9     28.9 1.4     29.9 1.1
 01JUL2015     24.9 2.7     28.0 2.0     28.9 1.4     29.8 1.0

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached 14-day forecast, the MJO has peaked before reaching the Equatorial International Dateline.  Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how the currently strong MJO decays in the coming weeks.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest update from the BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surface

The 2015 El Niño is likely to strengthen in the coming weeks, largely due to recent tropical cyclone activity. Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator. This is likely to increase temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise sea surface temperatures further in the coming months.

[AbruptSLR]

For the week ending July 5 2015, the BoM indicates that the Nino 3.4 was 1.37 (see the first image; & which agrees well with NOAA's 1.4), and that the IOD is approximately neutral (see the second image).

The third image shows the TAO sub-surface temperature measurements & anom., indicating that the current EKW is well developed.

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 5 2015 and indicate that the Nino 1, 2 and 3 indices, respectively, were all up, while the Nino 4 index fluctuated downward.

[AbruptSLR]

First, I posted yesterday's BoM's 30-day moving average SOI in the wrong thread so see the first image.

Second, while I normally do not post the UK Met Office's MJO forecast, this week it has the most bullish MJO forecast (which may or may not be representative of that actual physics); therefore, I am providing it (see the second attached image) as it shows a relatively strong MJO reaching the Equatorial International Dateline by July 13 2015.  If this were to occur, it could serve to flip the Walker Cell into a more stable El Nino configuration.

[Sigmetnow]

@EricBlake12: Here is the NMME #ElNino fcst change from Jun-Jul -about 0.6C warmer at the peak @Weather_West @EricHolthaus #climate http://t.co/xobuRLbY89

https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/618531246264741889

[Sigmetnow]

Eric Holthaus:  Surge of Typhoons Will Give Record-Setting El Niño a Big Boost

On Tuesday, even as the official U.S. El Niño blog encouraged weather watchers to “keep calm,” new forecast data compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gave the clearest indication yet that this year’s El Niño is heading for a new all-time record.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/07/el_ni_o_typhoons_in_the_pacific_ocean_will_have_global_consequences.html

@EricBlake12: Latest NMME ensemble shows >95% chance of a strong #ElNino & >60% chance of the strongest in modern times #climate http://t.co/jKFfjhFlw7

https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/618527648185196544

[AbruptSLR]

Today the BoM issued the attached image of the 30-day moving average SOI that has drifted down to -17.2:

[AbruptSLR]

Today NOAA release the first attached image showing a MJO forecast from July 8 to 22 2015; which is in the middle-of-the-road for the spread of international MJO forecasts; which shows a moderate MJO reaching the Equatorial International Dateline circa July 12 2015. 

The second attached Albany U. 850hPa wind anom forecast from July 8 to 15, supports the NOAA MJO forecast and shows a brief mild increase in westerly winds near the Equatorial International Dateline starting around July 12 2015.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached WWV vs Nino 3.4 plot by NOAA makes me wonder where we may be on a parallel track to the 1982-83 Super El Nino

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -16.2:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -16.1:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached NOAA forecast (first image), there are two cyclones forecast to occur in the Eastern Pacific; which will result in the associated WWB in the Eastern Pacific indicated in the seconded Albany U. plot of the 850hPa wind anom to July 17 2015.

[Laurent]

China Evacuates Tens Of Thousands Ahead Of Super-Typhoon Chan-hom

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/typhoon-chan-hom-china_559f9e76e4b01c2162a64498?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green&section=green

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -16.7:

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows that NOAA forecasts that the MJO is near the Equatorial International Dateline today.  The second attached image of the Albany forecasted 850-hPa wind anom, show that the MJO is forecast to increase westerly anom. west of the Dateline.  The third image of today's Earth Wind Map of the 850-hPa, clearly shows relatively high wind velocities west of the Dateline.

[AbruptSLR]

The following data provided by the University of Washington indicates that the PDO for June 2015 has moved up to +1.54:

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC

2015     2.45   2.30   2.00   1.44   1.20   1.54

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued today by the BoM, indicates that the 30-day moving average has drifted up to -16.5:

[AbruptSLR]

I begin this post by point-out that the first image from Cyclocane shows an unusual amount of tropical storm activity in the North Pacific; which to my way of thinking reflects on the generally high Sea Surface Temperatures, sst, in the tropical Pacific as indicated in the second attached image of global sst for July 12 2015.  While the third attached shows that these high Pacific sst readings are associated with high ssta readings associate with both El Nino conditions and positive PDO values.  The fourth image shows that the MJO is currently at the Equatorial International Dateline but should drop rapidly in strength.

My point in showing these images, is that: (a) even without the Walker Cell flipping into an El Nino configuration; nevertheless, we have a strong El Nino developing which seems to be most closely tied to strong tropical storm activity such as occurred in the 1982-83 Super El Nino; and (b) continued global warming will likely lead to continuing high sst readings in the Tropical Pacific; which may lead to more frequent tropical storm activity and more frequent strong El Nino conditions in the future; and (c) it is my personal belief that the current (and possibly increasingly frequent future) Pacific tropical storm activity are indicators that the relatively rapid warming of the Tropical Pacific sst values that is an indicator of current relatively high ECS values.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot was issued today by the BoM & indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -16.4:

[AbruptSLR]

Per the following data issued today by NOAA for the week centered on July 8 2015, all Nino indices are up from last week and the Nino 3.4 index is up to 1.5:

                     Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA

 17JUN2015     25.4 2.7     28.2 1.8     29.0 1.4     29.9 1.1
 24JUN2015     25.1 2.6     28.1 1.9     28.9 1.4     29.9 1.1
 01JUL2015     24.9 2.7     28.0 2.0     28.9 1.4     29.8 1.0
 08JUL2015     25.2 3.3     27.9 2.1     28.8 1.5     29.9 1.1

[AbruptSLR]

The first image shows the Earth 250-hPa Wind Map for July 13 2015 showing that the MJO is still active near the Equatorial International Dateline; as is supported by the second attached image showing the ECMM MJO forecast from July 13 to 27 2015.  While it is not likely that the MJO will linger near the Equatorial International Dateline, but if it were to do so for very several day, it could server to flip the Walker Cell into an El Nino configuration.

Also, as we have not looked at it for sometime, the third attached image shows NOAA's correct Nino 3.4 forecast, with the lasted family of 8 members being more bullish that the earlier 8 members.  Again, this years seems to me to have many similarities to the 82-83 Super El Nino event.

[plinius]

I do not think that one should call a "PDF-corrected" forecast a "correct" forecast. For my part, I much prefer the raw model output, because their method for PDF-correcting their forecasts by construction can not deliver good performance for such an event (and as explained somewhere above I do have quite a suspicion that it will underestimate extreme events). This has something to do with the usual scatter of forecasts - the outliers will bring down a PDF-corrected forecast when there are very few strong events in the learning period of the forecast.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached image was issued today by the BoM & shows that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -16.2:

[AbruptSLR]

I do not think that one should call a "PDF-corrected" forecast a "correct" forecast. For my part, I much prefer the raw model output, because their method for PDF-correcting their forecasts by construction can not deliver good performance for such an event (and as explained somewhere above I do have quite a suspicion that it will underestimate extreme events). This has something to do with the usual scatter of forecasts - the outliers will bring down a PDF-corrected forecast when there are very few strong events in the learning period of the forecast.

plinius,

Thanks for the catch, as the word "correct" was a typo as I meant to type "corrected".  You are correct that the "PDF-corrected" Nino 3.4 forecast is only an approximation.  That said the un-corrected forecast is also only an approximation.  Here I provide both the uncorrected (first attachment) and the corrected (second attachment) issued July 14 2015, so that readers can interpolate as they wish.

Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

The first two attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending July 12 2015.  The first attached shows that the BoM's Nino 3.4 weekly index value of +1.50 matches the same value from NOAA for last week.  The second attached image shows that the IOD weekly index is increasingly positive.

The third attached image shows that the MJO is lingering near the Equatorial International Dateline, but is forecast to weaken rapidly there.  The fourth attached image of the Earth 250-hPa Wind Map for July 14 2015 shows that the MJO is currently located just to the east of the International Dateline (as indicated by the forecast).

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, for the week ending July 12 2015.  All of the indices, except for the Nino 2 index, were up last week: