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Arctic Sea Ice : Forum
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AGW in general
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Consequences
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kassy
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statistical analysis of a common instrumental temperature record (14terstock)
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Topic: statistical analysis of a common instrumental temperature record (14terstock) (Read 2619 times)
Pmt111500
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statistical analysis of a common instrumental temperature record (14terstock)
«
on:
January 31, 2015, 08:45:22 AM »
Well the headline pretty much says it all:
http://14terstock.wordpress.com/2015/01/06/warming-with-a-chance-of-25-years-of-slowdown/
I might add that so much depends on the possible speed of deep ocean heat storage, that this could be a reasonable analysis until ice free summers are common place in the arctic making the top of AO warmer than subsurface waters. But, given that the deep ocean gets warmer, so do the El Ninos and likely La Ninas too. The recent broadly spread study by Wenju Cai & al. see f.e.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/la-nina-extreme-weather-pattern-may-double-by-century-s-end/
quite correctly refers to studies saying El Ninos would become even more frequent than La Ninas. I guess the projection they made had strongly enhanced deepwater mixing which would indeed do that. I haven't read their paper, butI think this type of study could indeed produce the 20th century-type hiatuses included in the statistical analysis by 14terstock. Whether it's correct or not, I have no opinion yet, like 14terstock.
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Pmt111500
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Re: statistical analysis of a common instrumental temperature record (14terstock)
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Reply #1 on:
February 01, 2015, 09:30:41 AM »
more this statistical stuff,
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2015/01/31/models-dont-over-estimate-warming/
long term trends of temperature from models deviate equally to high and low side of reality.
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Arctic Sea Ice : Forum
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AGW in general
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Consequences
(Moderator:
kassy
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statistical analysis of a common instrumental temperature record (14terstock)