So why am I becoming increasingly alarmed about this melt season?
First, I've posted an image of the current SST anomalies. This will serve as context.
The eastern half of North America, both Canada and the U.S., suffered a brutally cold winter. Lets take a look at the regions of the cryosphere which endured this cold weather.
First the CAA:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.12.htmlDespite the cold winter the CAA melt is 150K square kilometers and 1 month ahead of 2014. I have a hard time understanding this but we have been seeing a growing positive snow cover anomaly in the late fall and early winter. Could deep snow have insulated the ice from this cold? I would not be surprised if the Northwest passage opens this year.
What about the Hudson?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.13.htmlDespite the cold, the Hudson is currently tracking with 2014. Regardless, all of this ice will disappear by the end of the melt season, a 700K drop.
And Baffin Newfoundland?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.4.htmlHere we see the effects of the cold winter. The sea has 200K square Kilometers more ice than at this time in 2014. Will some of this ice survive the melt season? I can't imagine much will which means a 600K drop.
As for the Greenland Sea....
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.5.htmlWe have been seeing a steady slide in the negative sea ice anomaly for the past 3 months. Given the SST anomaly, this cannot be due to lack of melt. Ice must be exiting the Fram to replace the melted ice. This is not a good thing. If even moderate amounts of ice exit the Fram for most of the melt season, the CAB is in trouble.
And the Barents?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.htmlLooks just like 2014 and with little over 100K, it is no cause for concern.
Not so the Kara.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.7.htmlThe Kara scares the hell out of me. It is 300K less than 2014, a full month ahead. If in the next month it melts at the rate of last year, you can kiss the Kara sea ice goodbye, ice free by the end of July. With high insolation on ice free water, the refreeze will be late.
And the Laptev?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.8.htmlIt is only while looking at this chart that my heart rate will slow down, 200K more ice than last year.
And the ESS?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.9.htmlWhile the ESS got a slow start, melt is accelerating and the ESS is now getting hammered by that low pressure system. If the influx of warm air unzips the ESS it is going to put a lot of heat on the Laptev.
We all know about the Chukchi.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.10.htmlMore than 100K ahead of last year and melt is accelerating. There is no way that the Chukchi is not ice free unless, of course, the Beaufort Gyre pumps a lot of ice into it. Even if it does, SST are so high the ice will likely not survive.
And we better hope the Gyre doesn't move a lot of ice from the Beaufort into the Chukchi.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.11.htmlThe Beaufort has 200K less ice than last year and it is melting fast. My guess is the Chukchi and Beaufort will be ice free at the end of this melt season.
What does this all mean for the Arctic Basin?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.htmlI'm not sure but the rest of this melt season will be riveting.