Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2015 melting season  (Read 2323828 times)

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1550 on: June 25, 2015, 06:59:16 AM »

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1551 on: June 25, 2015, 08:18:54 AM »
Nightvid, hi,

Last evening I´ve been getting older MODIS pics from my files to compare with the latest clear pic of that area, r03c03. On what I found for day 174 2011 there was extensive blue, much more than now.
For the quality and structure of the ice, I´d say there are ´interesting´ differences, but no incentive for me to go to the time-consuming process of ´floe-counting' in CAD. It was easy to see that 2011 was worse than now, though the difference is not that large to start to get inattentive.

Rubikscube

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 254
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1552 on: June 25, 2015, 09:50:22 AM »
I'd quibble with you Rubiks; Looks more like favorable melt conditions, not unfavorable.

Two shots from Climate Reanalyzer for today, temp and clouds.  It's no better over the next 3-4 days.

I just don't see it. Yes there will be some melt and yes I agree its much more heat around compared to 2013 and especially 2014, but when there is no HP domination and the air mostly keep circulating within the arictic (like will be the case during the upcomming 48 hours at least), then the melting conditions are not favourable. On top of that you've currently got winds pushing the super heated surface waters in Chuckhi away from the pack.

It is solstice, it is seemingly very little snow left and there are pools of warm air to tap into in every direction, still neither area or extent can do a proper century break and that is not because these metrics are useless, it is simply because melting conditions are unfavourable.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1915
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 598
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1553 on: June 25, 2015, 10:14:06 AM »

The models show the Beaufort, Eastern Chuchki, W/SW CAB, and CA getting smoked hardcore with very strong WAA coming off land.

With a predominant Southerly flow this is a nasty pattern for the MYI in these regions.

The flow being Southerly will:

1.  Bring land heat/moisture directly into the ice. 

1A.  The land has been thawed and snow free for quite a while. 

2.  This will cause the Beaufort/CA/SW CAB open water to expand and warm dramatically.










After this melt conditions get batter everywhere excerpt the Nansen basin.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1554 on: June 25, 2015, 10:19:31 AM »
My view is that we should not be blind for the SIE numbers and the lack of century breaks. Yes, there have been few centuries but that should be assigned to the cool weather in Labrador Sea and to some degree also Hudson Bay. Both these areas suffered, as we all know, a very cold winter. Earlier years melt seasons had higher extent numbers which should have contributed to the number of century breaks.

The Laptev Sea is another area of interest. While the winter was warm, the melt onset there have been weak but the ice there is thin.

The heat that have been more or less hammering the Cukchi, ESS and their boundary to CAB will have a huge impact soon. The only reason that we haven't seen more melting I think is due to the "wall" of older ice that have been acting like a guard to the interior of the Arctic.

Why? Well, a HP is scheduled to make its presence in the Arctic by Day 3-10 according to ECMWF 00z run . While there are a lot of melt ponds existing right now, these should be "warmed up" by the sun. by Day 7-10 the HP seems to be more powerful and if a new "MAC" (Moderate Arctic Cyclone) evolves as the ECMWF wants there should be a lot of wind too. Te GFS 00z run supports the idea of a HP but doesn't support the idea of a MAC, not yet tough. HP and plenty of sun should chew up the ice raher quickly.

All in all: we'll see a very strong decline in July and I think it's not unreasonable to expect 20-25 century breaks in July as Labrador Sea is going to warm up soon as well as Hudson Bay and the Laptev Sea.

I think we should introduce a new terminology now:

WAC: "Weak Arctic Cyclone"
MAC: "Moderate Arctic cyclone"
SAC: "Strong Arctic Cyclone"

From earlier years we have "GAC" and "PAC" --> Great Arctic Cyclone and Persistent Arctic Cyclone :)

//LMV

Rubikscube

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 254
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1555 on: June 25, 2015, 02:07:54 PM »
My view is that we should not be blind for the SIE numbers and the lack of century breaks. Yes, there have been few centuries but that should be assigned to the cool weather in Labrador Sea and to some degree also Hudson Bay. Both these areas suffered, as we all know, a very cold winter. Earlier years melt seasons had higher extent numbers which should have contributed to the number of century breaks.
Part of my point is that people can't start putting less emphasis on SIA/SIE number whenever they are stalling and not producing the spectacular cliffs most of us want to see (I presume), especially not when there is such an outcry each time double and triple centuries start ticking in. Secondly, while it is correct that Baffin and Hudson currently inflates the numbers slightly, in the sense that the final outcome of these regions is more or less given, you also have to account for Kara which at the moment is way ahead of most year.

Friv's maps gives you the situation at the moment; lots of heat sulking around on the fringes, but for most of the sea ice there is little melt. Take a look at both the O-buoy 11 and 12 cams as well, no rain, no sun, but a blanket of fresh snow. These aren't conditions that favour melting.

I think we should introduce a new terminology now:

WAC: "Weak Arctic Cyclone"
MAC: "Moderate Arctic cyclone"
SAC: "Strong Arctic Cyclone"

From earlier years we have "GAC" and "PAC" --> Great Arctic Cyclone and Persistent Arctic Cyclone :)

//LMV
Hmm, that sounds like a great idea :).

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1556 on: June 25, 2015, 02:30:52 PM »
My view is that we should not be blind for the SIE numbers and the lack of century breaks. Yes, there have been few centuries but that should be assigned to the cool weather in Labrador Sea and to some degree also Hudson Bay. Both these areas suffered, as we all know, a very cold winter. Earlier years melt seasons had higher extent numbers which should have contributed to the number of century breaks.
Part of my point is that people can't start putting less emphasis on SIA/SIE number whenever they are stalling and not producing the spectacular cliffs most of us want to see (I presume), especially not when there is such an outcry each time double and triple centuries start ticking in. Secondly, while it is correct that Baffin and Hudson currently inflates the numbers slightly, in the sense that the final outcome of these regions is more or less given, you also have to account for Kara which at the moment is way ahead of most year.

Friv's maps gives you the situation at the moment; lots of heat sulking around on the fringes, but for most of the sea ice there is little melt. Take a look at both the O-buoy 11 and 12 cams as well, no rain, no sun, but a blanket of fresh snow. These aren't conditions that favour melting.

I think we should introduce a new terminology now:

WAC: "Weak Arctic Cyclone"
MAC: "Moderate Arctic cyclone"
SAC: "Strong Arctic Cyclone"

From earlier years we have "GAC" and "PAC" --> Great Arctic Cyclone and Persistent Arctic Cyclone :)

//LMV
Hmm, that sounds like a great idea :).

I disagree, because it's still June. It doesn't matter whether extent plummets suddenly or is flat, it's still too early in the season to read anything into extent as far as the fate of the ice for September is concerned.

There is almost no predictability of the June extent for the September extent, once the underlying trends are accounted for, as can be seen by looking at this data taken from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).


F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1557 on: June 25, 2015, 02:41:26 PM »
The above defined classification of Arctic Cyclones needs just one more entry:

FAC -> "Final Arctic Cyclone". The one which will make 1st ice-free summer Arctic, you know. Sounds appropriate, even...
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1558 on: June 25, 2015, 02:42:59 PM »
Rubikscube: you are right in that I've to account for Kara Sea. Had forgotten it, thx :)

It's true that there is a lot of heat sulking at the fringes. That is something that was rather telling for both 2013 and 2014. Both those years saw little "heat domes" (IMO) moving through the whole Arctic basin.

GFS 06z run hints the possibility of a dipole and a hella bad conditon for ESS and Laptev Sea in about 6-7 days with rather strong winds from offshore winds and 850 hpa temps about 10-15C(!). Just inland in the Northern Siberia the GFS sows the possibility of tropical nights on a local, e.g temps that don't dip below 20oC...

In the CAA a HP of moderate strength should do its best to the ice there. and warm up the small polynyas giving a good momentum to melting.

By the same time, warm air will invade Labrador Sea...

For days 8-10 (use "Europe" at wetterzentrales pics) there are ints of a MAC northeast of Franz Josefs land. Thereby suggesting a good flow of export through Fram and (Olgas?) strait...

Aah, what an interesting month we may have in sight! :) Double, Triple or maybe even a Quadrouple century wouldn't surprise me if conditions continue to be favorable by then..

Best, LMV

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1559 on: June 25, 2015, 03:22:42 PM »
The above defined classification of Arctic Cyclones needs just one more entry:

FAC -> "Final Arctic Cyclone". The one which will make 1st ice-free summer Arctic, you know. Sounds appropriate, even...

LOL

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1339
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 679
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1560 on: June 25, 2015, 04:04:20 PM »
There appears to be a clear relationship between the % of ice lost during June and the September minimum.



The correlation is -0.799

So far this month, the % lost (10.6%) is the lowest since 2004. Also, no year that has lost less than 15% has gone on to have an September minimum of less than 5.5 million km2. To reach a 15% loss, the 5 day average will have to drop by over 87k per day for the rest of the month (which equates to a daily drop of over 95k/day).
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1561 on: June 25, 2015, 04:25:20 PM »
There appears to be a clear relationship between the % of ice lost during June and the September minimum.



The correlation is -0.799

So far this month, the % lost (10.6%) is the lowest since 2004. Also, no year that has lost less than 15% has gone on to have an September minimum of less than 5.5 million km2. To reach a 15% loss, the 5 day average will have to drop by over 87k per day for the rest of the month (which equates to a daily drop of over 95k/day).

You appear not to have de-trended the data. This means that you can't distinguish between the two leading hypotheses: Ho, which states that the only correlation between the June extent loss and the September minimum occurs due to the fact that both variables have an overall trend over the period of record and thus will be correlated since earlier years and later years in the series will be different on both measures; vs. H1, the alternative hypothesis, namely that there is a real relationship between June extent loss and September minimum above and beyond the simple overall trend that one expects to see in a warming climate.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3410
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 650
  • Likes Given: 244
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1562 on: June 25, 2015, 06:56:34 PM »
There appears to be a clear relationship between the % of ice lost during June and the September minimum.

<snippage>  To reach a 15% loss, the 5 day average will have to drop by over 87k per day for the rest of the month (which equates to a daily drop of over 95k/day).
Judging by wipneus' numbers, we may see close to that.
This space for Rent.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1339
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 679
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1563 on: June 25, 2015, 08:45:18 PM »
There appears to be a clear relationship between the % of ice lost during June and the September minimum.



The correlation is -0.799

So far this month, the % lost (10.6%) is the lowest since 2004. Also, no year that has lost less than 15% has gone on to have an September minimum of less than 5.5 million km2. To reach a 15% loss, the 5 day average will have to drop by over 87k per day for the rest of the month (which equates to a daily drop of over 95k/day).

You appear not to have de-trended the data. This means that you can't distinguish between the two leading hypotheses: Ho, which states that the only correlation between the June extent loss and the September minimum occurs due to the fact that both variables have an overall trend over the period of record and thus will be correlated since earlier years and later years in the series will be different on both measures; vs. H1, the alternative hypothesis, namely that there is a real relationship between June extent loss and September minimum above and beyond the simple overall trend that one expects to see in a warming climate.

Detrending both still yields a statistically significant relationship. I'll post up a bit more about it when I have a more stable internet connection.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1764
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1564 on: June 25, 2015, 09:38:23 PM »
There appears to be a clear relationship between the % of ice lost during June and the September minimum.



The correlation is -0.799

So far this month, the % lost (10.6%) is the lowest since 2004. Also, no year that has lost less than 15% has gone on to have an September minimum of less than 5.5 million km2. To reach a 15% loss, the 5 day average will have to drop by over 87k per day for the rest of the month (which equates to a daily drop of over 95k/day).

You appear not to have de-trended the data. This means that you can't distinguish between the two leading hypotheses: Ho, which states that the only correlation between the June extent loss and the September minimum occurs due to the fact that both variables have an overall trend over the period of record and thus will be correlated since earlier years and later years in the series will be different on both measures; vs. H1, the alternative hypothesis, namely that there is a real relationship between June extent loss and September minimum above and beyond the simple overall trend that one expects to see in a warming climate.

Detrending both still yields a statistically significant relationship. I'll post up a bit more about it when I have a more stable internet connection.

Yes it does indeed survive, even detrending by differencing IIRC.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1565 on: June 25, 2015, 09:44:37 PM »
There appears to be a clear relationship between the % of ice lost during June and the September minimum.



The correlation is -0.799

So far this month, the % lost (10.6%) is the lowest since 2004. Also, no year that has lost less than 15% has gone on to have an September minimum of less than 5.5 million km2. To reach a 15% loss, the 5 day average will have to drop by over 87k per day for the rest of the month (which equates to a daily drop of over 95k/day).

You appear not to have de-trended the data. This means that you can't distinguish between the two leading hypotheses: Ho, which states that the only correlation between the June extent loss and the September minimum occurs due to the fact that both variables have an overall trend over the period of record and thus will be correlated since earlier years and later years in the series will be different on both measures; vs. H1, the alternative hypothesis, namely that there is a real relationship between June extent loss and September minimum above and beyond the simple overall trend that one expects to see in a warming climate.

Detrending both still yields a statistically significant relationship. I'll post up a bit more about it when I have a more stable internet connection.

Thank you, nice stats!
Now,
I see a nice new point at (4.5, 13) Keeps the cloud about the same. Or a (4, 15).
For achieving a 13% just about 50 k per day of drop is needed.

I'll try remember this nice plot in September and add myself the final result.

PS. Again, sensitivity thing, what if we do the same for 10 Jun- 10 July period? Or May 20 - Jun 20. I wish I had the time to crunch the numbers.

Rubikscube

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 254
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1566 on: June 25, 2015, 10:39:10 PM »
There is almost no predictability of the June extent for the September extent, once the underlying trends are accounted for, as can be seen by looking at this data taken from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

That was not exactly what I was trying to say in the first place, but it's certainly an interesting discussion on its own. Basically; very favourable melting conditions this time around (in the sense that they contributes both directly and indirectly to the minimum) always result in substantial losses of SIA, although substantial losses aren't necessarily a consequence of very favourable melting conditions.

helorime

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 129
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1567 on: June 25, 2015, 11:06:13 PM »
Beware of getting lost in analysis that ignores other major factors.  Imagine that this had NOT had the lowest maximum ever, but had had an average maximum, and yet were still at the exact ice area and extent that we are now.  The loss would have been much higher.

So, compare your trend to the absolute number on this date compared to the number at minimum and see what that correlation looks like.

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1568 on: June 26, 2015, 12:55:48 AM »
The fast ice at Barrow has disappeared into the distance:



So has IMB Buoy 2015A round the corner near Prudhoe Bay:

"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1569 on: June 26, 2015, 01:53:21 AM »
Today's MODIS image (terra 4km) displays continued heavy melting in the CAB, continued smoke in or near Alaska, and extremely heavy melting in all the straits of the CAA, suggesting that all routes of the NWP will be open for several weeks this year:



 

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1570 on: June 26, 2015, 04:18:51 AM »
And the Bremen concentration map shows it too. It appears the entire ice pack is "split" in two with lower concentration areas. The "Pacific" side is actually low concentration as well, but the sensor is picking up some cloud cover there. The MODIS map (earlier post) also shows the high-melt-pond/low-concentration "channel", with cloud cover on the Pacific side and less ponded ice on the Atlantic side.


slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1571 on: June 26, 2015, 06:11:55 AM »
Does anyone else play the game on Cryosphere Today, Compare Daily Sea Ice: 'how many days behind 2012 is the 2015 sea ice?' ?

Most recent date displaying there is 17 June 2015, and I say: 8 days!

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=09&fy=2012&sm=06&sd=17&sy=2015

 :o

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1572 on: June 26, 2015, 06:16:38 AM »
PS someone said 2015 is looking a lot like 2011 and, yep, I can see that:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=17&fy=2011&sm=06&sd=17&sy=2015

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1573 on: June 26, 2015, 07:31:15 AM »
PS someone said 2015 is looking a lot like 2011 and, yep, I can see that:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=17&fy=2011&sm=06&sd=17&sy=2015

I did but based on the AMSR2 uni bremen maps of this post, for june 23,

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.msg54785.html#msg54785

Hey, much can change in 6 days.


Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1574 on: June 26, 2015, 07:45:19 AM »
It continues to be low melting rates. Espen updated on IJIS-thread that only 33500 km2 were lost by yesterday. Looking at the absolutely latest GFS 00z run makes me to expect both century and double century breaks from about the middle of next week.. A triple or maybe even a quadruple century break can't be ruled out if the forecas holds...

Wednesday is by just an occasion the 1 July... So, July crash may take place from Day 1 :P 8)

I'm expecting that ESS, Laptev, CAA, Labrador Sea and Beaufort Sea to cripple down as the HP strengthens over the Arctic basin... I'm rather sure Friv will concur with me :)

Let's see what's going to happen!!

//LMV

AySz88

  • New ice
  • Posts: 25
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1575 on: June 26, 2015, 09:57:02 AM »
...continued smoke in or near Alaska...

Definitely coming from Alaska, by the way.  Numerous bad fires, getting rather dramatic. I have to wonder if there might end up being so much black carbon deposited that it will start appreciably impacting albedo (or other health factors) of the surviving multi year ice beyond this year.

Just look at this tweet from the forestry department:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AK_Forestry/status/613538891694354432

"This map from the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center helps put Alaska's wildland fire situation in perspective."
« Last Edit: June 26, 2015, 10:03:40 AM by AySz88 »

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1915
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 598
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1576 on: June 26, 2015, 10:35:59 AM »
classic CA, Beaufort, and SW CAB flame thrower.

One of my favorites.  This set up came right before the GAC in 2012. 







The CA has seen consistent melt will land"ice snow gone.

Now both models show a hell of a torch. 


Thats 70F temps blowing off Banks Island and the one to the SE right into the NW passage. 

Gonna need a below normal August there to prevent it totally opening up.






This set up in 2012 happened in late July.



It decimated the SW CAB.

This wont decimate the CAB but it will open up more water.


SSTs will explode.

And big time melt will take place.

Area and extent will tumble hard in July without a major pattern change.

After day 3-4 the wheels fall off.

The models subtly  torch the ESS and Laptev.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1577 on: June 26, 2015, 10:52:12 AM »
Friv, the only thing that annoys me a little is that the ECMWF 00z run didn't show the same brutal forecast as the GFS 00z run did.. The question remains then if there will be some last minute saving for the ice from brutal melting...

Best, LMV

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1578 on: June 26, 2015, 03:08:12 PM »
OSISAF/Myocean, which tends to agree well with CT, but without the (sigh!) multi-day delays, is now showing that the contiguous high-concentration area has retreated to just the Atlantic side of the ice pack, and within a couple of days, based on MODIS, I suspect only areas above ~84N will escape the aggressive surface melt through tomorrow or Sunday. 

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1579 on: June 26, 2015, 03:42:52 PM »
To expand on the above post, the green oval on the right-hand image (see bottom of this post, and note that the image has a scroll bar at the bottom.) shows the new surface melting today. At this point, the Laptev sector joins ESS, Chukchi, and Beaufort sectors in having the heavy surface melt extend to about 84 degrees North latitude. Given the fairly fair-weather systems over the next couple days, there should be limited cloud blockage. I thus expect all the major concentration maps (with JAXA as a possible exception) to show for 6/26 and/or 6/27 that we are significantly ahead of 2012.

This also further corroborates the suggestion of aggressive and early surface melting this year that we saw hints of in the snow retreat, and shows (as I see it) that we are still well on track to defeating 2012. Once this heavy ponding has started, I think it is too late for the weather to stop it. Even an ice -retaining pattern, I suspect, cannot save us from a new record in September - it is already too late!

« Last Edit: June 26, 2015, 03:52:21 PM by Nightvid Cole »

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1580 on: June 26, 2015, 04:43:54 PM »
And the Bremen concentration map shows it too. It appears the entire ice pack is "split" in two with lower concentration areas. The "Pacific" side is actually low concentration as well, but the sensor is picking up some cloud cover there. The MODIS map (earlier post) also shows the high-melt-pond/low-concentration "channel", with cloud cover on the Pacific side and less ponded ice on the Atlantic side.



The CA experienced a brutally cold winter and yet the entire region seems to be melting. If that high brings a lot of insolation, I think the entire CA could be toast, including a large expanse of water north of the CA. I still believe that early, heavy snowfall last fall insulated the ice from the severe  cold of the winter.

I also feel  that, with open expanses of water at the end of each melt season, heavy snow could be a  new wildcard. Of course, the vagaries of fall and early winter weather will determine which  areas of the  northern hemisphere get heavy early snows. Regardless, whatever areas get insulated by early snows, the effect will be disastrous. Siberian permafrost may be  insulated from winter cold one year while the Beaufort and Chukchi may be insulated the next.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1581 on: June 26, 2015, 09:04:09 PM »
Latest ECMWF 12z run is fascinating and in fantasyland at +240h in the northern part of Barents Sea there is a "SAC" - "Strong Arctic Cyclone"  :) Well, I know it won't happen but one have to dream :P But what "IF" it did? Well, the ice there should be smashed in such an occurrence..

//LMV


Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 168
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1582 on: June 26, 2015, 11:02:28 PM »
GFS is generally showing a vague dipole type pattern, but each run seems to swap between a strong pattern with lots of wind pushing warm air out of Asia, and a very insipid pattern which doesn't do much of anything.  The current run is back to insipid.  The key issue seems to be when and where the next significant low pops up on the Russian coast.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1583 on: June 27, 2015, 01:59:36 AM »
There's now a melt pond visible on NPEO webcam 1:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2015-imbs/#2015D

Its current location is: 87.09 N, 2.39 W. The top sounder of IMB buoy 2015D suggests 4 cm of surface melt, but if that's true a lot more is in pretty bad shape.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1584 on: June 27, 2015, 03:03:11 AM »
The CA experienced a brutally cold winter ... I still believe that early, heavy snowfall last fall insulated the ice from the severe  cold of the winter.
Maybe the snow insulation caused the brutally cold Winter?

The snow cover would have minimised heat flow up through the ice from the Arctic water underneath, so the air temperature above would be determined more by the (very cold) temperature of the Arctic Winter sky.

Reasonable analysis?

tzupancic

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 21
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1585 on: June 27, 2015, 06:43:23 AM »
Just a short note, I previously commented about a number of factors that could contribute to arctic sea ice melt.  The ones that I personally thought were most significant were 1. total solar irradiance, 2. heat transfer from adjacent oceans, and 3. sea ice export.  One additional factor that would appear to be relevant to the present melt would be the degree/extent of fragmentation of the arctic sea ice.  It appears to me as a casual observer that there is an unusual amount of sea ice fragmentation at this date compared with other years.  Perhaps that is a misperception on my part. 
« Last Edit: June 27, 2015, 06:55:10 AM by tzupancic »

tzupancic

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 21
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1586 on: June 27, 2015, 07:08:15 AM »
Just one more, as I recall, back in 2007 heat transfer from the Pacific through the Bering strait was an important factor.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1587 on: June 27, 2015, 07:31:12 AM »
In big contrast to CC_Reanalyzer, UiB satellite data make following estimation of the snow cover in the Arctic showing that there's still vast areas with more than 50 cm of snow northeast of Svalbard. Also, the western part of Laptev Sea still have 30-60 cm of snow depth.

The main question now is how reliable is this result?

See more at: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/databrowser.html#tab=tabs-browser&day=26&month=5&year=2015&img={%22image%22:%22image-1%22,%22sensor%22:%22AMSR_SNOW%22,%22color%22:false,%22region%22:%22Arctic%22}  Click for full size!

//LMV


jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3410
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 650
  • Likes Given: 244
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1588 on: June 27, 2015, 08:54:35 AM »
In big contrast to CC_Reanalyzer, UiB satellite data make following estimation of the snow cover in the Arctic showing that there's still vast areas with more than 50 cm of snow northeast of Svalbard. Also, the western part of Laptev Sea still have 30-60 cm of snow depth.

The main question now is how reliable is this result?
<snippage>

//LMV
I'm somewhat skeptical.  Some of the buoy cameras show significant snow coverage for sure.  I'm not sure its as widespread as the map suggests, or anything like contiguous.
This space for Rent.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1915
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 598
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1589 on: June 27, 2015, 10:14:12 AM »
Here is 09,10,14, and 15.

10 and 15 visibly have far less snow than 09 and 14.

Even tho 09 was sunny.

But snow was a big factor in 09 having as weak June when with a classic dipole.

Apparently snow cover is a big deal in limiting near surface warming up there.




This is at 77N in the Western CAB.

No snow
Melt ponds
Foggy

But without snow cover instead of being -1 to -3C. It's above 0C.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1590 on: June 27, 2015, 01:49:21 PM »
In big contrast to CC_Reanalyzer, UiB satellite data make following estimation of the snow cover in the Arctic showing that there's still vast areas with more than 50 cm of snow northeast of Svalbard. Also, the western part of Laptev Sea still have 30-60 cm of snow depth.

The main question now is how reliable is this result?

See more at: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/databrowser.html#tab=tabs-browser&day=26&month=5&year=2015&img={%22image%22:%22image-1%22,%22sensor%22:%22AMSR_SNOW%22,%22color%22:false,%22region%22:%22Arctic%22}  Click for full size!

//LMV

That's just bizarre. 50-60 cm snow depth on Atlantic side when ice surface melt is happening, despite the fact that these depths are rare even for April as measured by buoys?

I just cannot take this source seriously (any more than we could take PIPS seriously in 2010/2011 when it was giving 4 meter ice thicknesses for rapidly melting first year ice).  :-X

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1591 on: June 27, 2015, 02:07:12 PM »
The concentration is slightly falling in the area inside the violet oval. I expected a somewhat more dramatic reduction, but this still confirms the uptick in melting there as suggested by MODIS.

CT should follow suit, when they (finally) have their map for 6/26 available.

Bruce Steele

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 744
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1592 on: June 27, 2015, 05:14:14 PM »
Tzupancic, Pacific water flows through narrow passes in the Aleutian Islands and north along the Alaskan coast. " Moreover, the movement of Pacific Water from the Aleutian Passes to the Bering Sea takes more than one year, with the exception of the small portion that enters the shelf through
Zemchug Canyon, which takes 8 months. Hence, most of the water of Pacific origin entering Bering
Strait has gone through a seasonal cycle on the journey and thus cooled to near freezing
(-1.8 C )"

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661115001020

I have seen several claims of late that somehow " the blob " is transporting Pacific heat into the Arctic but the evidence of a decade of buoy data collected in the Bering Strait 2001-2010 and published by Woodgate 2005, 2006, and 2010 shows bottom water moving north through the Strait is -1.8 C for the first three months of the year and only begins to heat after the surface ice has melted. About April - May each year.
I realize it has been a few years since the end of that data-set and I do not know of any current buoy arrays that are giving current readings but without evidence that something has changed I think claims of Pacific heat or " the Blob " moving heat into the Chukchi or Beaufort is speculation and
probably in error.
 

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1593 on: June 27, 2015, 05:37:52 PM »
That is gtreat piece of knowledge Bruce, thx.

A few days ago it was also about winds transporting heat from sea sutrface in Chukchi into the Atctic ice, and as LMV showed us several times, that did not happen. Rather the opposite, the region has cooled down a bit. Saved some ice!!

For big July melting two big questions are: will finally ESS and Laptev will open up soon enough?? Once open, they can have a melt runaway and affect CAB with some sun still heating up.
And, will those nice MYI floes in Beaufort and the thick ice in Chukchi melt out? Things have slowed down so much that a really warm windy sunny weather had to come.

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 438
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1594 on: June 27, 2015, 06:54:04 PM »
That is gtreat piece of knowledge Bruce, thx.

A few days ago it was also about winds transporting heat from sea sutrface in Chukchi into the Atctic ice, and as LMV showed us several times, that did not happen. Rather the opposite, the region has cooled down a bit. Saved some ice!!

For big July melting two big questions are: will finally ESS and Laptev will open up soon enough?? Once open, they can have a melt runaway and affect CAB with some sun still heating up.
And, will those nice MYI floes in Beaufort and the thick ice in Chukchi melt out? Things have slowed down so much that a really warm windy sunny weather had to come.

You seem to think that the melting of the ice pack proceeds from the outer edges inwards and that peripheral melting causes central Arctic melting.

But this is not the case - the ice melts from the top surface and from the bottom surface. You can indeed have melting on the lateral surface of ice floes, but the lateral melting from the edges of the pack is not what gets you to the September minimum - simple back of the envelope calculations suggest that the melting from action at the edges of the ice pack is orders of magnitude too slow.

In essence, all the melting is local. While you can certainly have short-range effects such as warm water from open areas undercutting ice elsewhere, the speeds of water and ice motion are too slow for the ice cover in the peripheral seas in July to impact the ice near the North pole by September.

You could literally delete all ice in the peripheral areas right now and the impact on the North Pole ice by September would be too small to detect.

All ice melt is local.

Bruce Steele

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 744
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1595 on: June 27, 2015, 07:26:58 PM »
Nightvid, From the Wood et al 2015 linked above. " However, the relative influence of heat from Pacific Water on the well-stratified upper water column( and sea ice ) in the Arctic basin is not certain
( Jefferies et al.2013 ) Petrovich et al 2007 ) found summer solar input in the northern Chukchi Sea
ranged from about 2-5 times the Bering Sea heat transport. Steele et al 2010 also showed that 80%
of ocean heating in the Pacific Arctic north of Alaska is from surface heat flux and only 20% due to ocean lateral heat flux( e.g. Bering Sea inflow ) which mostly occurs within a few hundred kilometers from the coast."
That said 20% is a considerable amount of heat ! I think timing is also important here as years that have early and increased flow will allow extra surface water SST's in the Southern Chukchi.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/beringst.fc.gif


Seaicesailor, I have been watching Bering Strait SST contours for awhile and I posted them a couple times recently but I can't save them. Anyway Southern Chukchi had surface water SST at 7 C two days ago and the most recent chart shows the cooling you mentioned. There were favorable southerly winds that have temporarily switched north but when we get some southerlies warm water will push back through the Bering Straits in addition to all important  surface insolation .

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1596 on: June 27, 2015, 10:47:17 PM »
Thanks for the info, Bruce. A lot of information I didn't know about.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1597 on: June 27, 2015, 11:16:47 PM »
That is gtreat piece of knowledge Bruce, thx.

A few days ago it was also about winds transporting heat from sea sutrface in Chukchi into the Atctic ice, and as LMV showed us several times, that did not happen. Rather the opposite, the region has cooled down a bit. Saved some ice!!

For big July melting two big questions are: will finally ESS and Laptev will open up soon enough?? Once open, they can have a melt runaway and affect CAB with some sun still heating up.
And, will those nice MYI floes in Beaufort and the thick ice in Chukchi melt out? Things have slowed down so much that a really warm windy sunny weather had to come.

You seem to think that the melting of the ice pack proceeds from the outer edges inwards and that peripheral melting causes central Arctic melting.

But this is not the case - the ice melts from the top surface and from the bottom surface. You can indeed have melting on the lateral surface of ice floes, but the lateral melting from the edges of the pack is not what gets you to the September minimum - simple back of the envelope calculations suggest that the melting from action at the edges of the ice pack is orders of magnitude too slow.

In essence, all the melting is local. While you can certainly have short-range effects such as warm water from open areas undercutting ice elsewhere, the speeds of water and ice motion are too slow for the ice cover in the peripheral seas in July to impact the ice near the North pole by September.

You could literally delete all ice in the peripheral areas right now and the impact on the North Pole ice by September would be too small to detect.

All ice melt is local.

I believe that greatest portion of melting happens in the edges advancing inwards. BUT, I believe the speed of this progression is accelerated by prior setup of local melt (mainly surface ponds) . What makes the difference is open ocean being heated within this gradually rotten edge and behind  it, because it causes further top melting (if enabled by atmospheric heat transport, south winds) and bottom melting, especially in July-August. Hence the importance of this melt front being established during June, to really benefit from insolation peak. If later, then the runaway is not so much, or there is no runaway at all. Remember how fast Laptev bite advanced in 2014 (very early establishment of front), and how slow almost inexistent Beaufort advance in 2013, so late!. Note that all these effects are clear manifestation of albedo feedback.

Compacting drift also makes the front advance faster, which clears out even more open ocean water, which again, heats up and make ice melt faster and front advance faster.

I dont think lateral melting becomes important until the last stages of floe melt out.

And I don't agree, not all melting is local in the sense you seem to imply. Part of it, yes, but greater part of it needs substantial ocean open water close by. (My hunch, again)

There is much more in this than what I am describing as a simple conceptual model. compaction, export, divergence, upwelling ...

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1598 on: June 27, 2015, 11:19:59 PM »
Waiting, waiting and waiting... Don't like to wait for big melt rate to go ahead,... Model forecasts continues to be rather ice friendly and backing virtually every run...

But let's be rational now, how has earlier July melting proceeded?

This is from one of my post last year by June 1 (I've added the numbers from July and August 2014):

Analog numbers for change in SIE from JAXAs number during July:

2003: -2,30 Mn km2
2004: -2,25 Mn km2
2005: -2,80 Mn km2
2006: -2,25 Mn km2
2007: -3,10 Mn km2
2008: -2,60 Mn km2
2009: -2,90 Mn km2
2010: -2,10 Mn km2
2011: -2,65 Mn km2
2012: -2,85 Mn km2
2013: -2,75 Mn km2
2014: -2,15 Mn km2

Avg 1980: -2,30 Mn km2
Avg 1990: -2,40 Mn km2
Avg 2000: -2,55 Mn km2

Not the same big difference as is seen in June..

August then?

2003: -1,6 Mn km2
2004: -2,0 Mn km2
2005: -1,4 Mn km2
2006: -1,15 Mn km2
2007: -1,7 Mn km2
2008: -2,15 Mn km2
2009: -1,5 Mn km2
2010: -1,5 Mn km2
2011: -1,9 Mn km2
2012: -2,5 Mn km2
2013: -1,6 Mn km2
2014: -1,5Mn km2

Avg 1980: -1,4 Mn km2
Avg 1990: -1,4 mn km2

In the absolutely worst case scenario we would only loose 3,25 Mn km2 from July 1 - August 31. In the best case we'll loose 5,6 Mn km2. This gives us a range for SIE  number to be roughly 3,0-6,25 Mn km2

The most reasonable lost would be about 4 Mn km2 yielding a SIE of about 5,5 Mn km2. Taking in account that Labrador Sea is slow this year I think it's more fair to say that we'll likely be down to 5,25 Mn km2 by August 31. After that, the loss use to be 0,5 Mn km2. So, 4,4-4,95 Mn km2 may be a rather safe intervall for the September SIE minimum.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1599 on: June 27, 2015, 11:29:33 PM »
Waiting, waiting and waiting... Don't like to wait for big melt rate to go ahead,... Model forecasts continues to be rather ice friendly and backing virtually every run...

Yes, this is looking a lot like 2014, the year of in situ melting.

But the CAA is looking interesting:



I wonder if and when things are going to fall apart.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith