Waiting, waiting and waiting... Don't like to wait for big melt rate to go ahead,... Model forecasts continues to be rather ice friendly and backing virtually every run...
But let's be rational now, how has earlier July melting proceeded?
This is from one of my post last year by June 1 (I've added the numbers from July and August 2014):
Analog numbers for change in SIE from JAXAs number during July:
2003: -2,30 Mn km2
2004: -2,25 Mn km2
2005: -2,80 Mn km2
2006: -2,25 Mn km2
2007: -3,10 Mn km2
2008: -2,60 Mn km2
2009: -2,90 Mn km2
2010: -2,10 Mn km2
2011: -2,65 Mn km2
2012: -2,85 Mn km2
2013: -2,75 Mn km2
2014: -2,15 Mn km2
Avg 1980: -2,30 Mn km2
Avg 1990: -2,40 Mn km2
Avg 2000: -2,55 Mn km2
Not the same big difference as is seen in June..
August then?
2003: -1,6 Mn km2
2004: -2,0 Mn km2
2005: -1,4 Mn km2
2006: -1,15 Mn km2
2007: -1,7 Mn km2
2008: -2,15 Mn km2
2009: -1,5 Mn km2
2010: -1,5 Mn km2
2011: -1,9 Mn km2
2012: -2,5 Mn km2
2013: -1,6 Mn km2
2014: -1,5Mn km2
Avg 1980: -1,4 Mn km2
Avg 1990: -1,4 mn km2
In the absolutely worst case scenario we would only loose 3,25 Mn km2 from July 1 - August 31. In the best case we'll loose 5,6 Mn km2. This gives us a range for SIE number to be roughly 3,0-6,25 Mn km2
The most reasonable lost would be about 4 Mn km2 yielding a SIE of about 5,5 Mn km2. Taking in account that Labrador Sea is slow this year I think it's more fair to say that we'll likely be down to 5,25 Mn km2 by August 31. After that, the loss use to be 0,5 Mn km2. So, 4,4-4,95 Mn km2 may be a rather safe intervall for the September SIE minimum.