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Laurent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1650 on: June 29, 2015, 11:26:56 AM »
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?symbols=none&type=prec
Seeing how the rain is applied to the arctic, I think the timing and the location is quite good for melting. In June the rain was mainly in Beaufort, Chukchi now that the ice is wrecked the main flow seems to shift toward the pole still from Siberia to Canada, that mean that Laptev, ESS, CAB will be hit by rain next week. (As usual we'll have to see how things goes on for the rest of the melting season)
« Last Edit: June 29, 2015, 01:23:34 PM by Laurent »

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1651 on: June 29, 2015, 12:47:58 PM »
Yep. So far, i feel, the ice holds surprisingly well (considering existing conditions), in terms of its area. Do we have interesting news about volume right now, anyone?
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1652 on: June 29, 2015, 12:56:57 PM »
F. Tinoli: yep, volume is more or less "on pair" with 2011, at least according to DMI daily volume graph:



Site link: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

//LMV

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1653 on: June 29, 2015, 01:01:55 PM »
Yep. So far, i feel, the ice holds surprisingly well (considering existing conditions), in terms of its area. Do we have interesting news about volume right now, anyone?

PIOMAS will have an update next week. It will be interesting to see what the heat in the CAA, Beaufort and Chukchi is doing to the numbers.

Quote
The models have been trending towards the GIS bridge block with the NEPAC HP causing basically a huge flow of tremendous heat coming from areas with ssta of 2-4C above normal.

You may be right, Friv. Another round of heat is going to slap the ice in the Chukchi in the face. And the CAA remains warm too.

Still, there's nothing look a good, old dipole to make trend lines drop like rocks.  ;) ;D
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1654 on: June 29, 2015, 01:04:43 PM »
CAPIE is now below that of 2013 and 2014:
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1655 on: June 29, 2015, 02:07:54 PM »
Neven: how would you judge the PIOMAS volume graph versus the DMI graph? Which one should be the most reliable? I think it's rather fascinating that we are on pair with 2011 according to DMI graph...



Best, LMV
« Last Edit: June 29, 2015, 02:43:52 PM by Lord M Vader »

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1656 on: June 29, 2015, 02:40:56 PM »
LMV, I don't know that DMI graph all too well. PIOMAS has never let me down, to put it simply. It's probably not 100% correct in the short term, but captures the middle to long term trends very well, I believe.

But let's see what PIOMAS has to say in a couple of days, although I think it's highly improbable that it will have this year as low as 2011 (difference was 2013 km3 at the end of May).
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1657 on: June 29, 2015, 02:44:49 PM »
Cooling aside, storms are hurting within the pack,




I wonder if, at the end of the day, that Arctic-wide 1-meter thinning during June is greatly due to storms, except for the very hot years like 2007 & 2012 where direct surface melting and compactness made for most of it.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1658 on: June 29, 2015, 03:36:15 PM »
F. Tinoli: yep, volume is more or less "on pair" with 2011, at least according to DMI daily volume graph:



Site link: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

//LMV
Thank you, this will do indeed. Eyeballing it, i can see volume drops slightly faster than in 2011 last few weeks, in general. Expected. If it'll keep going like that, - and i can't see why it wouldn't, in general, - then it's to pray for ice-sparing weather 2nd half of the melt season, eh. Or to get ready for a new 2012'sh kind annual low otherwise.

Neven's right, next PIOMASS report would indeed be interesting. It seems to me that there is slight to moderate probability of "most volume lost" for this June in PIOMASS terms.

The 2013+2014 "rebound" is already flushed down the drain, eh. Pun kinda, i guess... But not much intended.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1659 on: June 29, 2015, 04:08:22 PM »
People noticed this year's melting has progressed faster in areas where thickness and age is greatest, and is delayed in thinner areas.

Is that making ice more resilient (by slowing down extent drop during June and further albedo runaway) or on the contrary more vulnerable (by preparing the stage for a faster periphery melting during July, weather abiding) ?

Weather, Weather, ... , weather .....


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1660 on: June 29, 2015, 07:31:32 PM »
Weather, Weather, ... , weather .....

The sun is currently beating down on a widening lead north of Greenland:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2015-images/#OBuoy9
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1661 on: June 29, 2015, 08:01:04 PM »
F. Tinoli: yep, volume is more or less "on pair" with 2011, at least according to DMI daily volume graph:



Site link: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

//LMV
Thank you, this will do indeed. Eyeballing it, i can see volume drops slightly faster than in 2011 last few weeks, in general. Expected. If it'll keep going like that, - and i can't see why it wouldn't, in general, - then it's to pray for ice-sparing weather 2nd half of the melt season, eh. Or to get ready for a new 2012'sh kind annual low otherwise.

Neven's right, next PIOMASS report would indeed be interesting. It seems to me that there is slight to moderate probability of "most volume lost" for this June in PIOMASS terms.

The 2013+2014 "rebound" is already flushed down the drain, eh. Pun kinda, i guess... But not much intended.

The rebound hasn't even stopped yet, let alone been flushed down the Fram. May 2015 volume (21.496) was up on May 2014 volume (20.288) and PIOMAS volume has been consistently up year on year since 2012.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1662 on: June 29, 2015, 08:01:40 PM »
IF the forecast holds, there will be a huge WAA over Chukchi and ESS in about 5 days. In Beaufort HP dominated weather will make its presence..

In about 6 days, a heat dome will reach Hudson and toast the ice in combo with some winds too...

Baffin is under fire too soon...

Single, double or triple century breaks anyone?

//LMV

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1663 on: June 29, 2015, 08:06:12 PM »
LMV, I don't know that DMI graph all too well. PIOMAS has never let me down, to put it simply. It's probably not 100% correct in the short term, but captures the middle to long term trends very well, I believe.

But let's see what PIOMAS has to say in a couple of days, although I think it's highly improbable that it will have this year as low as 2011 (difference was 2013 km3 at the end of May).

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20150628.png

PIOMAS tops out at around 24.3k in April 2015, DMI tops out at about 25k.
PIOMAS tops out at about 23.4k in April 2012, bottoms out at about 3.7k having an annual range of 19.7k. DMI tops out at about 25k in April 2012, bottoms out at about 5k having an annual range of 20k.

Comparing PIOMAS with the DMI presentation of HYCOM-CICE shows that DMI seems to be much thicker than the thickest ice shown by PIOMAS.
https://c1.staticflickr.com/1/385/19265753632_ca81a12a28_o.png

However I suspect this has more to do with the handling of the sub grid parameterisation. Even in the PIOMAS map above (which is grid box effective thickness) the model shows substantial ice at up to 26m thick. The DMI handling of this sub grid distribution may be different from Dr Zhang's method, e.g. they might use modal or some such approach that gives extra weight to presence of thicker ice. Given the difference between the thinner and thicker ice in DMI, and the similarity between PIOMAS ice under around 2m thick and DMI under around 2m thick, despite the disimilarity for the thicker ice - difference in treatment of the sub grid parameterisation can only explain the difference in thickness IMO.

That noted the two plots show a broad pattern and some local detail that is similar. However DMI has a finer time step and horizontal resolution than PIOMAS.

PS. I have explained sub grid thickness distribution in this post.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/what-is-piomas-gice.html

« Last Edit: June 29, 2015, 08:12:27 PM by ChrisReynolds »

Rubikscube

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1664 on: June 29, 2015, 09:11:17 PM »
IF the forecast holds, there will be a huge WAA over Chukchi and ESS in about 5 days. In Beaufort HP dominated weather will make its presence..

In about 6 days, a heat dome will reach Hudson and toast the ice in combo with some winds too...

Baffin is under fire too soon...

Single, double or triple century breaks anyone?

//LMV

The ECMWF 12 run is a carnage. 168h+ is completely absurd, but it starts from the very first day in July. Century breaks are guaranteed.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1665 on: June 29, 2015, 11:44:11 PM »
IF the forecast holds, there will be a huge WAA over Chukchi and ESS in about 5 days. In Beaufort HP dominated weather will make its presence..

In about 6 days, a heat dome will reach Hudson and toast the ice in combo with some winds too...

Baffin is under fire too soon...

Single, double or triple century breaks anyone?

//LMV

The ECMWF 12 run is a carnage. 168h+ is completely absurd, but it starts from the very first day in July. Century breaks are guaranteed.

The forecast of weather conditions conducive to melting (ie a high over the American-Pacific side of the Arctic) seems to be coming closer, but it's still far out. Even so, there's plenty going on as it is. The question is: how much is hidden beneath the surface? How much potential is there?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1666 on: June 30, 2015, 01:18:31 AM »
Thought this was interesting from the northern Alaska discussion.
Quote
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN AGREEMENT
BUILDING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
BY SUNDAY...AFTER A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. CURRENT GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT...OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE
OVERBUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH
WOULD BREAK ALL TIME RECORDS.

http://www.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=FXAK69PAFG&type=public
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sedziobs

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1667 on: June 30, 2015, 05:51:27 AM »
Shell is taking advantage of the early Chukchi melt.
Quote
The Polar Pioneer drilling rig arrived in Dutch Harbor, in Unalaska, off mainland Alaska, early on Saturday morning and will remain there until ice begins clearing over the area in the Chukchi Sea where the company plans to drill through late September, spokesman Curtis Smith said.

"As of today, our in-house experts are forecasting the third week in July will present the first opportunity to begin drilling operations over our Burger prospects," Smith said in a statement.

Although the start date is about a week later than the July 15 date when the company is allowed to begin drilling, Smith said it will still amount to an earlier opening than the previous 11-year average by almost three weeks.
http://news.yahoo.com/shell-says-could-begin-arctic-oil-exploration-off-004403327--finance.html

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1668 on: June 30, 2015, 08:36:31 AM »
Interesting note by NOAA. I'm not surprised though.. In any case, GFS 00z run indicates a huge heat dome over Laptev in about 6 days with 850 hpa temps which would do a real blowjob to the ice there. But most likely it's just another overestimation by the GFS again..

In any case, the forecasts are bad but the outcome hasn't materialized yet. --> I believe it when I see it :)

//LMV

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1669 on: June 30, 2015, 09:37:43 AM »
IF the forecast holds, there will be a huge WAA over Chukchi and ESS in about 5 days. In Beaufort HP dominated weather will make its presence..

In about 6 days, a heat dome will reach Hudson and toast the ice in combo with some winds too...

Baffin is under fire too soon...

Single, double or triple century breaks anyone?

//LMV


Once Lake Erie & Lake Ontario finally melt out things may slow down again.

Terry

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1670 on: June 30, 2015, 09:55:35 AM »
F. Tinoli: yep, volume is more or less "on pair" with 2011, at least according to DMI daily volume graph:



Site link: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

//LMV
Thank you, this will do indeed. Eyeballing it, i can see volume drops slightly faster than in 2011 last few weeks, in general. Expected. If it'll keep going like that, - and i can't see why it wouldn't, in general, - then it's to pray for ice-sparing weather 2nd half of the melt season, eh. Or to get ready for a new 2012'sh kind annual low otherwise.

Neven's right, next PIOMASS report would indeed be interesting. It seems to me that there is slight to moderate probability of "most volume lost" for this June in PIOMASS terms.

The 2013+2014 "rebound" is already flushed down the drain, eh. Pun kinda, i guess... But not much intended.

The rebound hasn't even stopped yet, let alone been flushed down the Fram. May 2015 volume (21.496) was up on May 2014 volume (20.288) and PIOMAS volume has been consistently up year on year since 2012.
Excuse me, but are you eyeballing the graph, at all? Please do note, i was responding to the specific graph, i specifically mentioned i was only eyeballing it, and my post reflects what i eye-balled. With over 20 years experience of eyeballing graphs, i do it quite not so bad. Like this:



As you can see from the numbers and thin lines picking specific dates (May 1st, June 1st, June 27th - which is my addition to otherwise unchanged graph given above), last two months, ice volume is consistently lower than both 2013 and 2014, but especially so by June 27th. Hence the "flushed down the drain" figurative talk. I didn't mean fram; i meant, it melted (much). And which is the reason i was asking about any news for ice volume in the 1st place - i had reasons to believe volume is diving extremely very fast right now, and the graph here confirms my belief.

Let's wait for the next PIOMASS report, shall we.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 10:22:22 AM by F.Tnioli »
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oren

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1671 on: June 30, 2015, 10:23:23 AM »
I am wondering about the level of agreement between PIOMAS and this new volume chart. Guess I'm not the only one. If PIOMAS agrees with this volume drop then we're in a serious cliff right now that is not showing up in the extent data yet but might become a crash very soon..

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1672 on: June 30, 2015, 10:23:48 AM »
With the significant ice weaknesses near Laptev and Chukchi, and with a significant assault of warm air into ESS it looks like the Siberian ice tongue may melt out this year, which has only fully occurred in 2012, and 2007, and partially occurred in 2008.  I think the detachment of ice in this region from the main ice pack contributed to the strong finishes of both 2008 and 2012 (2008 was only partial detachment)
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1673 on: June 30, 2015, 10:51:17 AM »
I am wondering about the level of agreement between PIOMAS and this new volume chart. Guess I'm not the only one. If PIOMAS agrees with this volume drop then we're in a serious cliff right now that is not showing up in the extent data yet but might become a crash very soon..
Exactly. If this huge melt of ~8200 km^3, which i eyeball on the graph between June 1 and June 27 2015, will be confirmed (at least, mostly confirmed) by PIOMASS - then yep, it's a bomb for July/August.

P.S. Melting 8200 km^3 of ice takes nearly 2,7x10^21 Joules of energy, if i'm not mistaken (am i? 6,01kJ to melt 1 mol of ice, water is 18g/mol, the rest is geometry...). To compare, annual energy consumption of the world (mankind, i mean) is estimated to be 5,6x10^20 joules (iea.org, 2014). The former is 4+ times higher amount of energy than the latter. In other words, this is quite big, eh - during this 27-day-long melt, daily energy consumption to melt ice was 2,7*10/5,6 * 365/27 = 65 times higher (on average) than mankind's average daily energy consumption. And that's before counting heating ice from colder states to melting temperature, and without more heating which goes to warm liquid water, of course.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 12:04:38 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1674 on: June 30, 2015, 11:15:39 AM »
The weather and wind currents are slowly turning favorable for a plummet. Area is going to see an early July cliff.

Extent may be more methodical but will also tank big time.

I can easily see 2 mil extent loss in 14-17 days and 3 to 3.5 mil over a 30 day period.

This year is set up for a huge July and above normal August.

I expect the entire ESS to go.   The Chuchki/Western CAB at least to 80n.  The Beaufort ice free or close.   The CAB side of the Beaufort sloping from 75 to 78N.

The CAA will be around 2011/2012.  Expect full Nwp melt out.

The wild card Imo is the Laptev. 

The Laptev could easily get smoked still.

Ala 2008. 

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LRC1962

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1675 on: June 30, 2015, 12:06:49 PM »
P.S. Melting 8200 km^3 of ice takes nearly 2,7x10^21 Joules of energy, if i'm not mistaken (am i? 6,01kJ to melt 1 mol of ice, water is 18g/mol, the rest is geometry...). To compare, annual energy consumption of the world (mankind, i mean) is estimated to be 5,6x10^20 joules (iea.org, 2014). The former is 4+ times higher amount of energy than the latter. In other words, this is quite big, eh.
Is not that under the presumption that you are talking about solid ice? Could you not presume that based on low max area and extents that you could also be talking about general poor ice conditions? If that were the case than you could have had greater export and/or under melt then we have assumed, but in such a fashion as to thin out the ice on a more then usual way rather than melting the ice from the edges in. If that happened then area and extent would remain higher than expected, but could set things up for a later greater collapse if the weather conditions turned into a 'favourable' setup for export and/or general melt. The maps do seem to indicate that great thinning is happening from earlier on.
Getting back to your analysis, if you have poor ice conditions then much less energy would be needed for the melt off and still less energy would be needed for any future melt as the thinning process would further weaken the ice. If that is the case then weather conditions would be needed to be almost perfect in order to hope to save high ice levels.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1676 on: June 30, 2015, 12:27:04 PM »
I am talking about the ice which was lost (volume) according to the presented above graph, between June 1st 2015 and June 27th 2015, which my eye balls tell was nearly 8200 cubic kilometers. I.e. i am calculating energy which was already spent, to melt ~-1,8C sea ice into ~-1,8C sea water. The amount is significantly higher than "average" for last ~15 years. The difference between June 1...27 of 2013/2014 and June 1...27 of 2015 - amounts to nearly annual mankind's energy consumption, give or take. I.e., it is as if all energy 7+ billions of humans spend during a whole year - was sent there to Arctic to melt more ice in just one month, June. Unless the graph is wrong, this has already happened.

Personally, i suspect a) early massive drops of sea ice/snow albedo and b.) warmer than usual sea water under much of Arctic ice being two significant causes of this June's extra melt.

The a) was at least partially caused by massive early forest fires, such as Russian fires in April, which were massive enough to even spawn event's own wikipedia page. Amount of soot and dust from such massive early spring fires is massive, and at least some of it, i believe, ends up in Arctic after a few weeks, decreasing Albedo, allowing the Sun to melt faster/more ice than usual. And as you can see on the satellite photo in said wikipedia arcticle, huge amount of smoke was going nearly northwards.

It still takes some time for it to be seen as "melt", though, - as decreased albedo first works much to produce faster temperature growth within the ice itself, and only after lots of "still cold from winter times" ice arrives to melting temperature, do we see extra fast melt per se. On the graph, we can see that May was rather average, which is exactly about the period of time when extra heat absorbed by Arctic is spent much to extra fast heating from much negative into near-zero temperatures - which contributes exactly to extra fast June's ice volume loss seen on the graph.

The b.) takes its roots in 2014, when we had several months bordering El-Nino. I was looking at Pacific currents back then, and it was my impression that it takes some 6...10 months for "warmer than usual" waters from sub-equatorial regions to travel "most of the circle" and thus arrive to regions next to Alaska, and thus affect weather patterns and water temperature there - which, of course, affects Arctic. Which i guess is happening right now.

As for future melt - yep, condition of the ice is important, weather is important, but it is my belief that whatever state ice is in, if you imagine 18g of ice (as a solid piece, or as many fractured pieces, any size), - then it would still take ~6010 Joules of energy to turn that amount of ice into same mass of liquid water. Fractured into pieces, ice would melt faster, yes, - because total surface of many pieces which together are 18g of ice mass is greater than surface of a single 18g piece of ice. But it doesn't change amount of energy which is needed for that amount of ice (18g) to melt into liquid water. It only changes how fast that energy could be applied to the ice, all other conditions being the same.

This is how i think these bits of physics work. Please do correct me if i am wrong somewhere. Hopefully, i am not.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 01:01:01 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1677 on: June 30, 2015, 12:47:55 PM »
.
Excuse me, but are you eyeballing the graph, at all? Please do note, i was responding to the specific graph, i specifically mentioned i was only eyeballing it, and my post reflects what i eye-balled. With over 20 years experience of eyeballing graphs, i do it quite not so bad. Like this:
.

I wasn't looking at the graph at all. I was quoting the published numbers from the PIOMAS thread. Look at a wall of death PIOMAS plot (months plotted clockface fashion) if you want to eyeball it. It switched out of wall of death mode in 2012 and is still spiralling out.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1678 on: June 30, 2015, 01:12:09 PM »
I do not see how my argument based on DMI data for June 27 could be opposed by any data from PIOMASS which is month+ old, considering my argument was and still is not about month+ past times, but about "right now".

P.S. It would be even more interesting if PIOMASS won't reflect the June's volume drop we see in DMI data, any much. But i think, it will.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1679 on: June 30, 2015, 02:12:34 PM »
@F.Tniolli: I guess I didn't do a good job of expressing myself.
I do not dispute how much energy needed to melt a given amount of ice. The question I was trying to put across was if you are presented with a given volume of solid ice and an equal volume of broken and /or rotten ice then the actual amount of ice in each case would be different.
Also we are constrained by time. It takes far less time to melt broken ice then solid ice, therefore in order to melt the same amount of ice in each case in the same amount of time would differ greatly. On top of that, the more broken up the ice becomes the more effective mechanical energy in aiding the melt therefore reducing the amount of heat needed to do the actual melt. A further point is that the more broken up the ice becomes the lower the effective melt point of the ice becomes. Granted, pure ice melts at greater than 0C. The problem becomes the less surface area there is to cause the melt the greater the ice can insulate itself from melting in the first place therefore you need greater  temps than that to get good melt started in the first place if you have a solid piece of ice. On the other hand, if the ice is well broken up then the surface area being attacked by melt temps would be very high and therefore high melt rates can occur at far lower temps.
All this trying to say, that although the same amount of energy is needed to melt a given weight of ice, depending upon the condition of the ice in the first place will change how much time is needed to actually melt that ice. And if time is an issue then the amount of energy needed to melt it then changes radically.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1680 on: June 30, 2015, 02:39:50 PM »
I understood your points, and most of them are true. Except this very last one: "amount of energy needed to melt it then changes radically". This is not so. Amount of energy "needed" to melt any given mass of ice remains the same. What changes according to factors your describe - is how fast the process goes. Which is of course true: broken ice melts faster "everything else being the same" than solid field.

The source of energy is another question entirely. You're correct about mechanical energy being a part of what melts fractured ice. Few pages ago, "long" under-ice waves - spanning hundreds of kilometers, - were discussed in some detail, for example. Integrate their effect over possibly hundreds thousands of square kilometers of ice, and that's alot of mechanical energy coming in. Some fraction of it will certainly end up turning into heat due to friction, but it is my uneducated guess that this fraction would be very small in compare to more "traditional" sources of energy for ice melt.

The "slush" case, - small pieces of ice forming a layer of ice-water mix at the surface, affected by "normal" storm waves and such, - transforms much more mechanical energy to heat which melts ice, but i still guess it's hardly significant. Instead, the main thing there is extra mixing all the motion produces, - which means much faster energy trasnfer from warmer waters to colder not-yet-melted ice. And i mean both mixing "within" the slush itself, and also more mixing with deeper (possibly warmer than freezing point, late summer) waters. This mixing is definitely a major thing. But it only "works" if there is enough heat per se stored within liquid water, of course. I.e., usually it does (late summer), but in some few locations it does not (wherever few dozens of meters of water column are very near to freezing point temperature).

What you probably mean is that amount of energy which "gets into" the Arctic ocean+ice system during summer months - by insolation, warmer waters from continents (river runoff), rain, warmer ocean currents and warmer air masses - does not need to be "that high" to produce "much melt", IF ice is much broken/rotten. This is true, yep. But not because each given piece of ice needs less energy to be melted - but because it is less insulation, on average, between "statistically average" cubic centimeter of ice and said energy. So instead of having many places which still have ice plus many other places with rather warm waters, "broken ice" season - given same energy input, - would end up with less places which still have ice, and in the same time less places with those "rather warm waters". Literally more mixing on the whole Arctic scale - more "averaged" temperature across Arctic ocean surface, and late summer, this of course means "less ice". But it also means more and faster autumn re-freeze, you see - such a "lower energy input but more broken ice" season. Creates slightly better ice for next melt season. I guess that's one weak negative feedback of "broken ice"; though it's not any strong, 'cause in any case winter is long enough to put things quite close to equilibrium anyways - ice+snow insulates well, preventing "more and more" ice thickness growth during winter, and you surely know that.

It is like recharging your cell phone with and without a simple resistor plugged between the phone and its charging device: if the resistor is present, it'll take longer to complete the charge of the phone, but the amount of energy accumulated within your phone, - will remain the same.


This June, we have "problems" on both fronts, in general: it seems that more energy than average (for June) entered Arctic ocean + ice system, and it also seems ice is worse-than-average-for-June shape. MYI is much beaten, FYI in some places - not so much beaten, but has little to no hope to endure through to become SYI (second year ice), in most places. Both are important things to keep notice of, yes. I am not decreasing importance of neither of those two big sides of the melt process - it's just that i mostly focused on one of them in last few posts, with only few short mentions of the other.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2015, 02:50:55 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1681 on: June 30, 2015, 02:55:25 PM »
IF the forecast holds, there will be a huge WAA over Chukchi and ESS in about 5 days. In Beaufort HP dominated weather will make its presence..

In about 6 days, a heat dome will reach Hudson and toast the ice in combo with some winds too...

Baffin is under fire too soon...

Single, double or triple century breaks anyone?

//LMV


Once Lake Erie & Lake Ontario finally melt out things may slow down again.

Terry


Hmmmm, perhaps we could assimilate some data from unanimous boater reports of open water and lake surface water temperatures far too high for ice to be possible?  ;)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1682 on: June 30, 2015, 03:35:57 PM »
I do not see how my argument based on DMI data for June 27 could be opposed by any data from PIOMASS which is month+ old, considering my argument was and still is not about month+ past times, but about "right now".

P.S. It would be even more interesting if PIOMASS won't reflect the June's volume drop we see in DMI data, any much. But i think, it will.

You claimed that the rebound was not only over, the excess ice accumulated from it had gone too.

PIOMAS says that as of last month the rebound was still continuing to accumulate extra ice. The accumulation of ice from the 2012 low is unprecedented in the PIOMAS era and I reckon there is no way it can vanish in a single month.



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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1683 on: June 30, 2015, 03:38:25 PM »
IF the forecast holds, there will be a huge WAA over Chukchi and ESS in about 5 days. In Beaufort HP dominated weather will make its presence..

In about 6 days, a heat dome will reach Hudson and toast the ice in combo with some winds too...

Baffin is under fire too soon...

Single, double or triple century breaks anyone?

//LMV


Once Lake Erie & Lake Ontario finally melt out things may slow down again.

Terry


Hmmmm, perhaps we could assimilate some data from unanimous boater reports of open water and lake surface water temperatures far too high for ice to be possible?  ;)

Looking out of my office window I can report that at 9:30 EDT on June 30, 2015, Lake Ontario appears to be ice-free. :)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1684 on: June 30, 2015, 03:59:15 PM »
The ARC prediction seems to indicate truly massive drops of ice extent by July 7.  If it is to be believed, everything in white is an indication of where there is ice today that is predicted to be be ice-free in a week.  This would be a confirmation of the century drops that have been mentioned by others.  It would seem that most of Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay, all of the Kara Sea, and much of the Laptev Sea and Chukchi Sea could see ice melt out.  Further the entire East Siberian Sea is primed for ice to melt all the way to the 80N.



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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1685 on: June 30, 2015, 04:08:16 PM »
The forecast of weather conditions conducive to melting (ie a high over the American-Pacific side of the Arctic) seems to be coming closer, but it's still far out. Even so, there's plenty going on as it is. The question is: how much is hidden beneath the surface? How much potential is there?

The runs (both yesterdays and todays) start out pretty normal only to get worse and worse for the ice the further out they go. This means that the most spectacullar and destructive setups are also the least likely, but even at a reliable 96h, the conditions are favouring strong melt.

Its worth noticing that virtually every run in the last couple of days have yielded similarly apocalyptic scenarios in the 168h+ range, and I don't think that is a coincidence. Usually these huge warm air intrusions are forecasted when there is a scenario with a massive anti-cyclone, often accompanied by a moderate arctic cyclone, to create a strong pressure gradient that is remarkably stable. What happens then is that even slight changes in the systems strength, position and stability causes the predicted torch to weaken dramatically maybe even fizzle out and disappear entirely. However, this time it seems like the heat sources are so abundant and so ideally positioned that even ordinary looking setups with remarkably weak pressure gradients are capable of producing wild scenarios. If you compare yesterday's ECMWF to the 00 from today, you will the that the runs differs quite a lot when you do beyond 168h, but they all spell disaster for the ice because there is so many differnet ways of getting there.

The caveat is for course that there is always a significant chance that a long term forecast abruptly desides to flip flop, but with so little snow cover left, the likelyhood of a July cliff unlike anything ever seen looks as big as it can possibly get on a June 30th.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1686 on: June 30, 2015, 04:42:30 PM »
I do not see how my argument based on DMI data for June 27 could be opposed by any data from PIOMASS which is month+ old, considering my argument was and still is not about month+ past times, but about "right now".

P.S. It would be even more interesting if PIOMASS won't reflect the June's volume drop we see in DMI data, any much. But i think, it will.

You claimed that the rebound was not only over, the excess ice accumulated from it had gone too.

PIOMAS says that as of last month the rebound was still continuing to accumulate extra ice. The accumulation of ice from the 2012 low is unprecedented in the PIOMAS era and I reckon there is no way it can vanish in a single month.
Again, - yes, i know what PIOMASS said "for last month". And again, now is not "last month". Now is now. Sadly. Ice melts. Fast.

What you reckon is not what DMI reckons, though. I am just noting it.

Be my guest, please. Take PIOMASS number and substruct 8200/27*30=9100 cubic kilometers (i am extrapolating average a bit, obviously) from it. Would the result still be above 2014 by June 30? I doubt it would, but even if it would, then most likely not more than by ~400 km^3, which is relatively small.

By the way, please do give link(s?) to your PIOMASS source. I have some doubts whether i interpret numbers you gave above correct (could be i am wrong about it), or perhaps PIOMASS numbers i see and ones you see - do not match.

Is DMI wrong? I do not know. But whom you think i trust more - them of you? I'll tell you: neither. I do not "trust" anyone - personal quirk. But i note available information from all sources and opinions. So, objectively, DMI has guts and brains to make that graph, plus arguments to back up its validity (i.e., http://ocean.dmi.dk/models/hycom.uk.php , etc). You, on the other hand, so far only presented what you "reckon", without even mentioning why you reckon so. Which is why, i still tend to note DMI opinion on the subject 1st - which is, there _is_ a way it can vanish in a single month, since it already has (mostly, anyway - 8200 in 27 days); and only 2nd, i tend to note your opinion, as a (so far minor) objection. I hope my explanation does not upset you - it was not my goal to upset. Only to research.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1687 on: June 30, 2015, 05:31:49 PM »
NOAA's Alaska forecasts appear to support the evolution of heat north of the Bering.  There is a huge amount of moisture being driven north across eastern AK and the Bering sea.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=ak&prodtype=discussion#AFDAFG
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1688 on: June 30, 2015, 05:41:27 PM »
I am wondering about the level of agreement between PIOMAS and this new volume chart.

For more a bit more info on DMI's HYCOM/CICE methodology see:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1112.msg55199.html#msg55199
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1689 on: June 30, 2015, 07:37:37 PM »
The forecast of weather conditions conducive to melting (ie a high over the American-Pacific side of the Arctic) seems to be coming closer, but it's still far out. Even so, there's plenty going on as it is. The question is: how much is hidden beneath the surface? How much potential is there?



The runs (both yesterdays and todays) start out pretty normal only to get worse and worse for the ice the further out they go. This means that the most spectacullar and destructive setups are also the least likely, but even at a reliable 96h, the conditions are favouring strong melt.

Its worth noticing that virtually every run in the last couple of days have yielded similarly apocalyptic scenarios in the 168h+ range, and I don't think that is a coincidence. Usually these huge warm air intrusions are forecasted when there is a scenario with a massive anti-cyclone, often accompanied by a moderate arctic cyclone, to create a strong pressure gradient that is remarkably stable. What happens then is that even slight changes in the systems strength, position and stability causes the predicted torch to weaken dramatically maybe even fizzle out and disappear entirely. However, this time it seems like the heat sources are so abundant and so ideally positioned that even ordinary looking setups with remarkably weak pressure gradients are capable of producing wild scenarios. If you compare yesterday's ECMWF to the 00 from today, you will the that the runs differs quite a lot when you do beyond 168h, but they all spell disaster for the ice because there is so many differnet ways of getting there.

The caveat is for course that there is always a significant chance that a long term forecast abruptly desides to flip flop, but with so little snow cover left, the likelyhood of a July cliff unlike anything ever seen looks as big as it can possibly get on a June 30th.


This is a fantastic post and is spot on.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1690 on: June 30, 2015, 08:42:27 PM »
I'd love to be able to interpret these forecasts like some of you can. Where can one go to learn about that? Any MOOCs to take?

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1691 on: June 30, 2015, 09:55:52 PM »
For they who are interested, DMI has a forecast for sea ice thickness spanning for 5 days ahead:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php

According to the most recent fcst, virtually the whole area encompassing 85-90oN will have a thickness between 1-1,5 m by July 5.

It'll be very interesting to see the differences between DMI and PIOMAS!!! :)

//LMV

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1692 on: June 30, 2015, 10:03:05 PM »
I'd love to be able to interpret these forecasts like some of you can. Where can one go to learn about that? Any MOOCs to take?

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buys_Ballot's_law

2. Experience...


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1693 on: June 30, 2015, 10:14:57 PM »
If there is a single reason why I think this could still be a strong melt season, it is the condition of the CAB compared to last year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1694 on: June 30, 2015, 10:44:06 PM »
Sea Ice Sailor,

Sorry, missed your long reply about melt ponds and the -1m experiment in PIOMAS.

I really don't think melt ponds are a good explanation for the result of the -1m experiment. All that changes is that the ice thins and that's what taking roughly 2m ice down to roughly 1m does - it crashes out.

There is another graph from the same presentation, and it is (IIRC) spookily like the post 2010 spring melts in PIOMAS. There is something about thinner ice that encourages faster melt, but I must confess I have yet to either read what it is or figure it out.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1695 on: June 30, 2015, 10:46:44 PM »
I do not see how my argument based on DMI data for June 27 could be opposed by any data from PIOMASS which is month+ old, considering my argument was and still is not about month+ past times, but about "right now".

P.S. It would be even more interesting if PIOMASS won't reflect the June's volume drop we see in DMI data, any much. But i think, it will.

You claimed that the rebound was not only over, the excess ice accumulated from it had gone too.

PIOMAS says that as of last month the rebound was still continuing to accumulate extra ice. The accumulation of ice from the 2012 low is unprecedented in the PIOMAS era and I reckon there is no way it can vanish in a single month.

No it won't have gone, but if we have had a fairly aggressive spring melt it might offset it.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1696 on: June 30, 2015, 11:38:28 PM »
The forecast of weather conditions conducive to melting (ie a high over the American-Pacific side of the Arctic) seems to be coming closer, but it's still far out. Even so, there's plenty going on as it is. The question is: how much is hidden beneath the surface? How much potential is there?

The runs (both yesterdays and todays) start out pretty normal only to get worse and worse for the ice the further out they go. This means that the most spectacullar and destructive setups are also the least likely, but even at a reliable 96h, the conditions are favouring strong melt.

Its worth noticing that virtually every run in the last couple of days have yielded similarly apocalyptic scenarios in the 168h+ range, and I don't think that is a coincidence. Usually these huge warm air intrusions are forecasted when there is a scenario with a massive anti-cyclone, often accompanied by a moderate arctic cyclone, to create a strong pressure gradient that is remarkably stable. What happens then is that even slight changes in the systems strength, position and stability causes the predicted torch to weaken dramatically maybe even fizzle out and disappear entirely. However, this time it seems like the heat sources are so abundant and so ideally positioned that even ordinary looking setups with remarkably weak pressure gradients are capable of producing wild scenarios. If you compare yesterday's ECMWF to the 00 from today, you will the that the runs differs quite a lot when you do beyond 168h, but they all spell disaster for the ice because there is so many differnet ways of getting there.

The caveat is for course that there is always a significant chance that a long term forecast abruptly desides to flip flop, but with so little snow cover left, the likelyhood of a July cliff unlike anything ever seen looks as big as it can possibly get on a June 30th.

This is a fantastic post and is spot on.

Agreed. It now really looks like something interesting is going to happen.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1697 on: July 01, 2015, 12:30:59 AM »
I think its very hard to pick what will happen with total extent or area figures for the next week.  The best melt conditions are around the ESS which historically has not melted much in early July.  In contrast the areas that can be expected to contribute big numbers from Hudson right around to Kara are comparatively cool.  So it could be that we continue to see below average losses for the Arctic overall, but rapid melt in the areas that are much more important for the final September minimum.  But Hudson and Baffin in particular have been melting slowly in the sun with little wind for a while, so they might just be about ready for flash melting regardless.  And the conditions around ESS may be severe enough for an unprecedented early melt in ESS and we could see some big numbers.  The 7th day on GFS does look a bit crazy though - strong low near Hudson which would surely destroy what is left there.  And a moderate low over Kara with a crazy infeed with both major heat and strong wind through the Laptev which should be very vulnerable to rapid melt, and then some generally windy weather around the ice edge in Barents/Kara to top things off.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1698 on: July 01, 2015, 08:07:28 AM »
The 00z gfs has multiple historic like unreal epic heat waves come directly into the arctic like reaching 77-79N. 

With 80s and 90 reaching the coast. 
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1699 on: July 01, 2015, 08:23:05 AM »
The 00z gfs has multiple historic like unreal epic heat waves come directly into the arctic like reaching 77-79N. 

With 80s and 90 reaching the coast.

thank goodness there is still an ice pack or those temps would flush right through the north pole.
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