Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2015 melting season  (Read 2323732 times)

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3410
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 650
  • Likes Given: 244
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3000 on: August 04, 2015, 09:34:48 PM »
The GLB HYCOM+CICE model seems to have been fixed,


... and absolutely the wrong direction for the Beaufort ice to be moving if it is going to survive.
This space for Rent.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1764
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3001 on: August 04, 2015, 10:41:01 PM »
Looking good/bad in Beaufort.   :) / :(

Do I have both interpretations covered?  ;)

OldLeatherneck

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 554
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3002 on: August 04, 2015, 10:52:00 PM »
Looking good/bad in Beaufort.   :) / :(

Do I have both interpretations covered?  ;)

Chris,
 
   You missed likely favorable, probably favorable, possibly favorable & unlikely favorable
                                                     &
                likely unfavorable, probably unfavorable, possibly unfavorable & unlikely unfavorable
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3003 on: August 04, 2015, 10:59:56 PM »
Whether good or bad, the neither-fish-nor-flesh atmospheric set-up continues (it looks like it's all down to melting momentum now):
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Nick_Naylor

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3004 on: August 04, 2015, 11:21:08 PM »
Doesn't look like much ice will be exported anytime soon.

What are the prospects that significant warm surface waters from the Barents/Kara will be blown in to meet and greet the ice? Winds seem to favor that, at least somewhat.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3410
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 650
  • Likes Given: 244
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3005 on: August 04, 2015, 11:38:33 PM »
What are the prospects that significant warm surface waters from the Barents/Kara will be blown in to meet and greet the ice? Winds seem to favor that, at least somewhat.

Modest.  Fastest I'd say the flow is likely to go would be 50ish KM/day, assuming a steady 50KPH wind in the right direction.

If it makes it, the melt rate will be spectacular.  Water that "hot" will make a meter of ice disappear in less than a week.
This space for Rent.

JER

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
    • Life On Thin Ice
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3006 on: August 04, 2015, 11:39:43 PM »
So, what does everyone think about that stubborn ice hanging on in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay that's still blocking coastal access to much of Baffin Island? And what about the persistent ice along the east coast of Ellesmere Island, as well as the ice in Kane Basin/Nares Strait? It seems my upcoming expedition (Aug. 16 departure) might be canceled and postponed to 2016... 13 of 17 locations we planned to visit on Baffin, Devon, and Ellesmere, as well as the route to Petermann, are still inaccessible (i.e., blocked for an ice-reinforced vessel that is not an ice-breaker). Looking at the various maps, satellite images, and ice charts daily (well, actually I've been staring at them obsessively multiple times a day), it strikes me that most or all of those regions of ice are likely to continue hanging on in the coming weeks, perhaps even through September. In some locations -- along parts of the Baffin Coast in particular -- the ice conditions actually seem to be getting more problematic rather than less. Your thoughts?
As a result of climate change, "The Arctic is the ecological equivalent of a war zone." -- Jenny E. Ross

12Patrick

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3007 on: August 05, 2015, 12:43:30 AM »
So, what does everyone think about that stubborn ice hanging on in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay that's still blocking coastal access to much of Baffin Island? And what about the persistent ice along the east coast of Ellesmere Island, as well as the ice in Kane Basin/Nares Strait? It seems my upcoming expedition (Aug. 16 departure) might be canceled and postponed to 2016... 13 of 17 locations we planned to visit on Baffin, Devon, and Ellesmere, as well as the route to Petermann, are still inaccessible (i.e., blocked for an ice-reinforced vessel that is not an ice-breaker). Looking at the various maps, satellite images, and ice charts daily (well, actually I've been staring at them obsessively multiple times a day), it strikes me that most or all of those regions of ice are likely to continue hanging on in the coming weeks, perhaps even through September. In some locations -- along parts of the Baffin Coast in particular -- the ice conditions actually seem to be getting more problematic rather than less. Your thoughts?
Wait a week or two and the ice will be gone..

OldLeatherneck

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 554
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3008 on: August 05, 2015, 12:57:49 AM »
So, what does everyone think about that stubborn ice hanging on in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay that's still blocking coastal access to much of Baffin Island? And what about the persistent ice along the east coast of Ellesmere Island, as well as the ice in Kane Basin/Nares Strait? It seems my upcoming expedition (Aug. 16 departure) might be canceled and postponed to 2016... 13 of 17 locations we planned to visit on Baffin, Devon, and Ellesmere, as well as the route to Petermann, are still inaccessible (i.e., blocked for an ice-reinforced vessel that is not an ice-breaker). Looking at the various maps, satellite images, and ice charts daily (well, actually I've been staring at them obsessively multiple times a day), it strikes me that most or all of those regions of ice are likely to continue hanging on in the coming weeks, perhaps even through September. In some locations -- along parts of the Baffin Coast in particular -- the ice conditions actually seem to be getting more problematic rather than less. Your thoughts?
Wait a week or two and the ice will be gone..

12Patrick,

What forecasts did you use to make the above claim that all of the  ice Jenny was referring to will be gone in the next two weeks?  Jenny and her colleagues  will be sailing in a vessel that could easily be stranded or damaged if they risked entering the Nares Straight when it is not safe to do so.

Please let some of  the experts on this forum respond to questions like that.  This is not an amateur hour, where a flippant guess can be misconstrued as a fact-based opinion based on scientific knowledge.
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

12Patrick

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3009 on: August 05, 2015, 01:14:24 AM »
So, what does everyone think about that stubborn ice hanging on in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay that's still blocking coastal access to much of Baffin Island? And what about the persistent ice along the east coast of Ellesmere Island, as well as the ice in Kane Basin/Nares Strait? It seems my upcoming expedition (Aug. 16 departure) might be canceled and postponed to 2016... 13 of 17 locations we planned to visit on Baffin, Devon, and Ellesmere, as well as the route to Petermann, are still inaccessible (i.e., blocked for an ice-reinforced vessel that is not an ice-breaker). Looking at the various maps, satellite images, and ice charts daily (well, actually I've been staring at them obsessively multiple times a day), it strikes me that most or all of those regions of ice are likely to continue hanging on in the coming weeks, perhaps even through September. In some locations -- along parts of the Baffin Coast in particular -- the ice conditions actually seem to be getting more problematic rather than less. Your thoughts?
Wait a week or two and the ice will be gone..

12Patrick,

What forecasts did you use to make the above claim that all of the  ice Jenny was referring to will be gone in the next two weeks?  Jenny and her colleagues  will be sailing in a vessel that could easily be stranded or damaged if they risked entering the Nares Straight when it is not safe to do so.

Please let some of  the experts on this forum respond to questions like that.  This is not an amateur hour, where a flippant guess can be misconstrued as a fact-based opinion based on scientific knowledge.
ElNino probably dictates it..

ktonine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 363
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3010 on: August 05, 2015, 01:17:12 AM »
ElNino probably dictates it..

I'm not aware of any strong correlation between sea ice and El Nino - those that can be found are generally lagged by 12 months.  Are you thinking of any particular study/results?

Vergent

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3011 on: August 05, 2015, 02:22:14 AM »
So, what does everyone think about that stubborn ice hanging on in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay that's still blocking coastal access to much of Baffin Island? And what about the persistent ice along the east coast of Ellesmere Island, as well as the ice in Kane Basin/Nares Strait? It seems my upcoming expedition (Aug. 16 departure) might be canceled and postponed to 2016... 13 of 17 locations we planned to visit on Baffin, Devon, and Ellesmere, as well as the route to Petermann, are still inaccessible (i.e., blocked for an ice-reinforced vessel that is not an ice-breaker). Looking at the various maps, satellite images, and ice charts daily (well, actually I've been staring at them obsessively multiple times a day), it strikes me that most or all of those regions of ice are likely to continue hanging on in the coming weeks, perhaps even through September. In some locations -- along parts of the Baffin Coast in particular -- the ice conditions actually seem to be getting more problematic rather than less. Your thoughts?

Canadian navigational ice charts can be found here;

http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=B6C654BB-1#daily_ice



You need 40% 30% and below to navigate with an ice hardened ship. To me, it's not looking good near term. The forecasts have this ice melting out rapidly,....but they have been showing that since mid June. Starting the 13th there will be a series of spring tides. Sometimes that helps with the channel ice.

Their current forecast can be found here:

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/getprod.pl?prodid=FECN16CWIS&wrap=1&lang=en


Verg

P.S. They will have a new 30 day forecast tomorrow (the 5th Aug).
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 02:40:09 PM by Vergent »

12Patrick

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3012 on: August 05, 2015, 03:12:23 AM »
ElNino probably dictates it..

I'm not aware of any strong correlation between sea ice and El Nino - those that can be found are generally lagged by 12 months.  Are you thinking of any particular study/results?
Sure the warmer Elnino's get the less ice volume we are going to have in the arctic which should dictate how long the ice will last in the Nares straight...

Greenbelt

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 167
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 39
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3013 on: August 05, 2015, 03:33:04 AM »
GFS has been quite consistent with the strong little cyclone coming off the east Siberian cost toward the Chukchi Sea.  Looks like this little guy could move some ice around at least in a local area.

JER

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
    • Life On Thin Ice
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3014 on: August 05, 2015, 03:36:07 AM »
Thanks, Verg.

Yes, I've been monitoring the Canadian Ice Charts. And I've been just shaking my head that the forecasts have repeatedly said the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ice would melt out, and then it doesn't. Originally they indicated that there would be a new forecast on Aug. 4, but today they changed that to Aug. 5. Seems like they might be as puzzled by the situation there as everyone else.

When I compare the daily charts I've collected (as well as the satellite images), it appears that some coastal regions are improving very slightly (i.e., there's a bit less ice or less concentrated ice), but many more are not improving and some are worsening. And, just as bad it seems to me, there appears to be enough movement of the higher-concentration regions of ice to make it inadvisable to count on using those green areas as reliable travel corridors. (But I'm certainly no expert!)

I thought 30% was the cutoff, so I appreciate knowing it's 40%.
As a result of climate change, "The Arctic is the ecological equivalent of a war zone." -- Jenny E. Ross

ktonine

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 363
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3015 on: August 05, 2015, 03:46:43 AM »
ElNino probably dictates it..

I'm not aware of any strong correlation between sea ice and El Nino - those that can be found are generally lagged by 12 months.  Are you thinking of any particular study/results?
Sure the warmer Elnino's get the less ice volume we are going to have in the arctic which should dictate how long the ice will last in the Nares straight...

In other words, you don't actually have any scientific papers to cite. 

The question is whether the ice in Baffin Bay and the Davis Strait will still be around in a couple of weeks.  Whether El Nino's get warmer in the future will have no effect on that - unless future events can somehow affect today.

El Nino's themselves appear to have only a minimal effect on Arctic Sea Ice.  The warm water pools created in the south Pacific take months to reach the Arctic.  By the time they reach the Arctic they've often had to undergo a seasonal cycle (i.e. - winter).


12Patrick

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3016 on: August 05, 2015, 03:55:30 AM »
ElNino probably dictates it..

I'm not aware of any strong correlation between sea ice and El Nino - those that can be found are generally lagged by 12 months.  Are you thinking of any particular study/results?
Sure the warmer Elnino's get the less ice volume we are going to have in the arctic which should dictate how long the ice will last in the Nares straight...

In other words, you don't actually have any scientific papers to cite. 

The question is whether the ice in Baffin Bay and the Davis Strait will still be around in a couple of weeks.  Whether El Nino's get warmer in the future will have no effect on that - unless future events can somehow affect today.

El Nino's themselves appear to have only a minimal effect on Arctic Sea Ice.  The warm water pools created in the south Pacific take months to reach the Arctic.  By the time they reach the Arctic they've often had to undergo a seasonal cycle (i.e. - winter).
As global sst's rise then so will ElNino sst's as well as LaNina sst's... So yes the warmer SST's get the more ice melt we will have...
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 04:21:54 AM by 12Patrick »

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3017 on: August 05, 2015, 04:11:52 AM »
Quiet daily update from U. Bremen.

Confirmation that the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas is not long for this world. The Siberian leg and stub that poke out South of 80 degrees North are still showing high concentration ice, so they haven't broken up yet. However, the forecast is for plenty of wind in that region over the next few days so it will be interesting to see how well they survive that.

The ice off the East coast of Greenland continues to wither, with no recent export through the Fram Strait. Could we have little or no ice in the Greenland Sea at this year's minimum?


weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 466
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3018 on: August 05, 2015, 05:10:43 AM »
Quiet daily update from U. Bremen.

Confirmation that the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas is not long for this world.



The Beautfort is looking quite robust. Sea ice extent has gained over 3455.03 square kilometers in the last 12 days. If this pattern continues there will be very little melt in the Beautfort. There also has been a significant slow down in the Chukchi during this past week.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/masie_extent_sqkm.csv

Edit: Since this is a ftp you have to copy and paste the link
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 05:57:46 AM by weatherdude88 »

Vergent

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3019 on: August 05, 2015, 07:28:13 AM »
Thanks, Verg.

Yes, I've been monitoring the Canadian Ice Charts. And I've been just shaking my head that the forecasts have repeatedly said the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ice would melt out, and then it doesn't. Originally they indicated that there would be a new forecast on Aug. 4, but today they changed that to Aug. 5. Seems like they might be as puzzled by the situation there as everyone else.

When I compare the daily charts I've collected (as well as the satellite images), it appears that some coastal regions are improving very slightly (i.e., there's a bit less ice or less concentrated ice), but many more are not improving and some are worsening. And, just as bad it seems to me, there appears to be enough movement of the higher-concentration regions of ice to make it inadvisable to count on using those green areas as reliable travel corridors. (But I'm certainly no expert!)

I thought 30% was the cutoff, so I appreciate knowing it's 40%.

40% was from memory double checking <15% for un-hardened vessels, <30% for hardened vessels. Over that you need an ice breaker. Sorry for the misrepresentation.

Verg

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3020 on: August 05, 2015, 07:30:44 AM »
Thanks, Verg.

Yes, I've been monitoring the Canadian Ice Charts. And I've been just shaking my head that the forecasts have repeatedly said the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ice would melt out, and then it doesn't. Originally they indicated that there would be a new forecast on Aug. 4, but today they changed that to Aug. 5. Seems like they might be as puzzled by the situation there as everyone else.

When I compare the daily charts I've collected (as well as the satellite images), it appears that some coastal regions are improving very slightly (i.e., there's a bit less ice or less concentrated ice), but many more are not improving and some are worsening. And, just as bad it seems to me, there appears to be enough movement of the higher-concentration regions of ice to make it inadvisable to count on using those green areas as reliable travel corridors. (But I'm certainly no expert!)

I thought 30% was the cutoff, so I appreciate knowing it's 40%.

Generally speaking, taking a look at the regional area and extent charts and extrapolating the trend intuitively, the ice in Baffin Bay SHOULD be finally gone in two weeks, so I believe there is yet hope for your expedition (and for us seeing the amazing photos afterwards). Doesn't mean it WILL, just that there is still a good chance.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.4.html

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/nsidc-nt-regional-extent-overview.png?attredirects=0

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3410
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 650
  • Likes Given: 244
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3021 on: August 05, 2015, 08:26:31 AM »
The Beautfort is looking quite robust. Sea ice extent has gained over 3455.03 square kilometers in the last 12 days. If this pattern continues there will be very little melt in the Beautfort. There also has been a significant slow down in the Chukchi during this past week.
weatherdude88...

You do realize that extent increase came from export out of the central arctic basin, yes?  You do realize that sea ice area/compactness has gone down, yes?

The Beaufort and Chukchi are melting like gangbusters.  A lot of it is bottom melt which isn't yet translating into changes in SIA or SIE.  A lot of the ice which has disappeared was replaced as described above.

You also realize that the melt right now is driven less by insolation and air temperature and more by heat in the ocean, yes?
This space for Rent.

JER

  • New ice
  • Posts: 34
    • View Profile
    • Life On Thin Ice
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3022 on: August 05, 2015, 09:05:50 AM »
Thank you very much, Oren.
As a result of climate change, "The Arctic is the ecological equivalent of a war zone." -- Jenny E. Ross

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3023 on: August 05, 2015, 09:23:49 AM »
The Beautfort is looking quite robust. Sea ice extent has gained over 3455.03 square kilometers in the last 12 days. If this pattern continues there will be very little melt in the Beautfort. There also has been a significant slow down in the Chukchi during this past week.

Do we have a general consensus on whether we like NSIDC measures of extent better than AMSR2?  On Wipneus' graphs, Beaufort extent got slammed.

Seemed to me like the wind was blowing ice into the Chukchi.  While that might increase extent in the Chukchi in the short term, it should melt out quickly leaving the ice from whence the extent came a bit weaker.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3024 on: August 05, 2015, 09:36:34 AM »
The Beautfort is looking quite robust. Sea ice extent has gained over 3455.03 square kilometers in the last 12 days. If this pattern continues there will be very little melt in the Beautfort. There also has been a significant slow down in the Chukchi during this past week.

Do we have a general consensus on whether we like NSIDC measures of extent better than AMSR2?  On Wipneus' graphs, Beaufort extent got slammed.

Seemed to me like the wind was blowing ice into the Chukchi.  While that might increase extent in the Chukchi in the short term, it should melt out quickly leaving the ice from whence the extent came a bit weaker.

The action there is happening in Beaufort, Chukchi and CAB all related, no sense to see the numbers separately.

Have you seen the CAB numbers dude? (talking to the weatherdude)

kingbum

  • New ice
  • Posts: 35
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3025 on: August 05, 2015, 09:55:04 AM »
ElNino probably dictates it..

I'm not aware of any strong correlation between sea ice and El Nino - those that can be found are generally lagged by 12 months.  Are you thinking of any particular study/results?
Sure the warmer Elnino's get the less ice volume we are going to have in the arctic which should dictate how long the ice will last in the Nares straight...

You really think El Niño this year is going to effect the ice on the Atlantic side? That is comical it is a residual effect in which evidence pops up 12-18 months after the current El Niño. It usually pops up in a busy hurricane season for the Atlantic the following year

Jim Pettit

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3026 on: August 05, 2015, 01:45:36 PM »
The Beautfort is looking quite robust. Sea ice extent has gained over 3455.03 square kilometers in the last 12 days. If this pattern continues there will be very little melt in the Beautfort. There also has been a significant slow down in the Chukchi during this past week.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/masie_extent_sqkm.csv

Edit: Since this is a ftp you have to copy and paste the link

"Quite robust", you say? MASIE doesn't give a true and accurate measure of extent; for that, use NIPR or NSIDC. But having said that: it's true that, per MASIE, the Beaufort has gained 2,337 km2 in extent over the last seven days (2015209 -2015215). But FWIW, that's a percentage increase of a bit over one-quarter of one percent (0.27%)--hardly what I would personally term "robust". At any rate, as noted by jdallen, that tiny increase was due to export from the CAB.

So far as the Chukchi, that "slowdown" in MASIE extent loss is being caused by wind-blown ice being pushed in--and that ice will almost certainly disappear in its entirety prior to minimum...
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 03:43:23 PM by Jim Pettit »

DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 740
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3027 on: August 05, 2015, 03:29:56 PM »

The Beaufort is looking quite robust. Sea ice extent has gained over 3455.03 square kilometers in the last 12 days. If this pattern continues there will be very little melt in the Beautfort. There also has been a significant slow down in the Chukchi during this past week.

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/masie_extent_sqkm.csv

Edit: Since this is a ftp you have to copy and paste the link
Weatherdude,
MASIE is not an accepted measure of extent , it  is used for completely different purposes. The accepted measures are IJIS / Ajax and NSIDC. 

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/

The accepted measures use a limit of 15% or 30% sea ice. Masie is virtually anywhere where you  might see ice which is a much  larger area and even a single ice berg is enough to  cause the area to  be counted.




Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 466
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3028 on: August 05, 2015, 03:53:21 PM »
Weatherdude,
MASIE is not an accepted measure of extent , it  is used for completely different purposes. The accepted measures are IJIS / Ajax and NSIDC. 

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/

The accepted measures use a limit of 15% or 30% sea ice. Masie is virtually anywhere where you  might see ice which is a much  larger area and even a single ice berg is enough to  cause the area to  be counted.

http://nsidc.org/data/masie/about_masie.html

Quote
MASIE-NH stands for the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent – Northern Hemisphere. It is similar to the Sea Ice Index (SII) product in that it is easy to use and gives a graphical view of ice extent in various formats. However, it relies more on visible imagery than on passive microwave data, so the ice edge position will generally be more accurate than that of the Sea Ice Index.

Quote
The Sea Ice Index ice extent is widely used, but the edge position can be off by 10s or in some cases 100s of kilometers. NIC produces a better ice edge product


DavidR

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 740
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3029 on: August 05, 2015, 03:58:49 PM »
Weatherdude,
MASIE is not an accepted measure of extent , it  is used for completely different purposes. The accepted measures are IJIS / Ajax and NSIDC. 

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/

The accepted measures use a limit of 15% or 30% sea ice. Masie is virtually anywhere where you  might see ice which is a much  larger area and even a single ice berg is enough to  cause the area to  be counted.

http://nsidc.org/data/masie/about_masie.html

Quote
MASIE-NH stands for the Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent – Northern Hemisphere. It is similar to the Sea Ice Index (SII) product in that it is easy to use and gives a graphical view of ice extent in various formats. However, it relies more on visible imagery than on passive microwave data, so the ice edge position will generally be more accurate than that of the Sea Ice Index.

Quote
The Sea Ice Index ice extent is widely used, but the edge position can be off by 10s or in some cases 100s of kilometers. NIC produces a better ice edge product
Exactly right, MASIE is used to defined the outer boundaries of the ice edge not the 'extent'. For the purposes of discussions about  extent IJIS or NSIDC extent are the normal measures.

There is nothin gin the MASIE record that  suggests that even that  measure has increased over the past 12 days.
http://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots.html

Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 466
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3030 on: August 05, 2015, 04:14:40 PM »
There is nothin gin the MASIE record that  suggests that even that  measure has increased over the past 12 days.
http://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots.html

Sure there is. Day 204 we had 866733.79 square kilometers of MASIE sea ice extent in the Beautfort. Day 216 which was yesterday we had 868666.75 of MASIE sea ice extent in the Beautfort. We have gained now 1,932.96 square kilometers in the Beautfort over the last 13 days using the MASIE metric. (866733.79 square kilometers - 868666.75 square kilometers = -1,932.96 square kilometers) This graph was plotted with the data in the link I posted above. You cannot just ignore the raw data because your eyes are not sharp enough to see the increase.

Subjectivist

  • New ice
  • Posts: 11
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3031 on: August 05, 2015, 04:19:38 PM »
The GLB HYCOM+CICE model seems to have been fixed,

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html



Is this a Sea Surface Salinity map?  If so it is the first I have noticed being posted, how does it compare to say 2006?

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3032 on: August 05, 2015, 04:49:15 PM »




Realistic change?

Can't see older than 2014 being archived. Yes SSS is sea surface salinity. (This is where a problem with big changes across 80N line noted on this forum was most noticeable. Apparently used GLINT data that was causing a problem and use of this data was going to be backed out. Given the large differences in thickness to last year I am not sure if this is yet reliable.)
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 04:59:59 PM by crandles »

Vergent

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3033 on: August 05, 2015, 04:51:34 PM »
Thanks, Verg.

Yes, I've been monitoring the Canadian Ice Charts. And I've been just shaking my head that the forecasts have repeatedly said the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ice would melt out, and then it doesn't. Originally they indicated that there would be a new forecast on Aug. 4, but today they changed that to Aug. 5. Seems like they might be as puzzled by the situation there as everyone else.

When I compare the daily charts I've collected (as well as the satellite images), it appears that some coastal regions are improving very slightly (i.e., there's a bit less ice or less concentrated ice), but many more are not improving and some are worsening. And, just as bad it seems to me, there appears to be enough movement of the higher-concentration regions of ice to make it inadvisable to count on using those green areas as reliable travel corridors. (But I'm certainly no expert!)

I thought 30% was the cutoff, so I appreciate knowing it's 40%.

Quote
The extent to which an ice cover of varying concentrations can be penetrated by a vessel varies from place to place and with changing weather conditions. With a concentration of 1 to 3 tenths in a given area, an unreinforced vessel can generally navigate safely, but the danger of receiving heavy damage is always present. When the concentration increases to between 3 and 5 tenths, the area becomes only occasionally accessible to an unreinforced vessel, depending upon the wind and current. With concentrations of 5 to 7 tenths, the area becomes accessible only to ice strengthened vessels, which on occasion will require icebreaker assistance. Navigation in areas with concentrations of 7 tenths or more should only be attempted by icebreakers

http://msi.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/NAV_PUBS/APN/Chapt-34.pdf

So much for memory, we were both way wrong. A reinforced vessel can navigate up to 70% concentrations by Navy standards. There is an ice breaker in the vicinity (the Oden), if you get stuck.

Verg

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 147
  • Likes Given: 38
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3034 on: August 05, 2015, 04:54:36 PM »
So, what does everyone think about that stubborn ice hanging on in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay that's still blocking coastal access to much of Baffin Island? And what about the persistent ice along the east coast of Ellesmere Island, as well as the ice in Kane Basin/Nares Strait? It seems my upcoming expedition (Aug. 16 departure) might be canceled and postponed to 2016... 13 of 17 locations we planned to visit on Baffin, Devon, and Ellesmere, as well as the route to Petermann, are still inaccessible (i.e., blocked for an ice-reinforced vessel that is not an ice-breaker). Looking at the various maps, satellite images, and ice charts daily (well, actually I've been staring at them obsessively multiple times a day), it strikes me that most or all of those regions of ice are likely to continue hanging on in the coming weeks, perhaps even through September. In some locations -- along parts of the Baffin Coast in particular -- the ice conditions actually seem to be getting more problematic rather than less. Your thoughts?
Interestingly, DMI thickness daily doesn't show much for Davis Strait as of yesterday. Central and eastern parts of it are shown ice-free, western part of it is shown having an ice field some ~0,5...1m thick, unless my geopraphy is dead wrong. Baffin Bay has a part of its western half  under another, larger 0,5...1m thick ice field, but eastern half is all clear. Now i'm not saying DMI is all correct about it, but OTOH, Greenland is Danish territory, and DMI is Danish meteorological institute, who if not they are to know?

If it's a question of significantly expensive preparations which may or may not be taken, i'd certainly try to contact those guys in DMI and ask them how things are there, right now, and what daya they base their map on (HYCOM CICE produces the picture, but i forgot which sorts of data and feedback they throw it against to reality check it, if any).

To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3035 on: August 05, 2015, 05:06:40 PM »
The GLB HYCOM+CICE model seems to have been fixed,

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html


Is this a Sea Surface Salinity map?  If so it is the first I have noticed being posted, how does it compare to say 2006?

Yes it is salinity.
This model is available only since 2014.

jplotinus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 128
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3036 on: August 05, 2015, 05:26:59 PM »
Thanks, Verg.

Yes, I've been monitoring the Canadian Ice Charts. And I've been just shaking my head that the forecasts have repeatedly said the Baffin Bay and Davis Strait ice would melt out, and then it doesn't. Originally they indicated that there would be a new forecast on Aug. 4, but today they changed that to Aug. 5. Seems like they might be as puzzled by the situation there as everyone else.

When I compare the daily charts I've collected (as well as the satellite images), it appears that some coastal regions are improving very slightly (i.e., there's a bit less ice or less concentrated ice), but many more are not improving and some are worsening. And, just as bad it seems to me, there appears to be enough movement of the higher-concentration regions of ice to make it inadvisable to count on using those green areas as reliable travel corridors. (But I'm certainly no expert!)

I thought 30% was the cutoff, so I appreciate knowing it's 40%.

Quote
The extent to which an ice cover of varying concentrations can be penetrated by a vessel varies from place to place and with changing weather conditions. With a concentration of 1 to 3 tenths in a given area, an unreinforced vessel can generally navigate safely, but the danger of receiving heavy damage is always present. When the concentration increases to between 3 and 5 tenths, the area becomes only occasionally accessible to an unreinforced vessel, depending upon the wind and current. With concentrations of 5 to 7 tenths, the area becomes accessible only to ice strengthened vessels, which on occasion will require icebreaker assistance. Navigation in areas with concentrations of 7 tenths or more should only be attempted by icebreakers

http://msi.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/NAV_PUBS/APN/Chapt-34.pdf

So much for memory, we were both way wrong. A reinforced vessel can navigate up to 70% concentrations by Navy standards. There is an ice breaker in the vicinity (the Oden), if you get stuck.

Verg

The underlying anecdotal data--ice in Baffin Bay--is much appreciated for its addition to understanding of what is actually going on. The data suggest that the September minimum for the arctic as a whole may depend in large measure on whether Baffin melts out or not. At present, it has not melted out.

Jim Pettit

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3037 on: August 05, 2015, 05:34:51 PM »
Sure there is. Day 204 we had 866733.79 square kilometers of MASIE sea ice extent in the Beautfort. Day 216 which was yesterday we had 868666.75 of MASIE sea ice extent in the Beautfort. We have gained now 1,932.96 square kilometers in the Beautfort over the last 13 days using the MASIE metric. (866733.79 square kilometers - 868666.75 square kilometers = -1,932.96 square kilometers) This graph was plotted with the data in the link I posted above. You cannot just ignore the raw data because your eyes are not sharp enough to see the increase.

No, you can't. What you also can't do is compare apples and oranges. That's like looking at only the RSS global temperature set and ignoring all the others. MASIE extent is neither NIPR/IJIS nor NSIDC. It looks at different things; it uses different metrics; it's not calculated the same way. So, feel free to get excited if you wish over the one-fifth of one-percent (or so) growth in Beaufort extent via MASIE over the past 13 days, but know that everyone else is looking at apples while you're concentrating solely on extremely ephemeral oranges.

FYI: Beautfort => Beaufort. As in Sir Francis. He was a scientist. The sea of which you write was named after him, as was the famous wind scale.

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3038 on: August 05, 2015, 05:36:00 PM »
The data suggest that the September minimum for the arctic as a whole may depend in large measure on whether Baffin melts out or not. At present, it has not melted out.
Seems highly unlikely that it won't.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 466
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3039 on: August 05, 2015, 05:44:17 PM »
No, you can't. What you also can't do is compare apples and oranges.

Jim,

Perhaps you should work more on your reading comprehension. I was responding to David's quote below where he claims that the MASIE metric has not increased at all over the past 12 days (now 13 days) by visually eye balling a graph without looking at the raw data. 

There is nothin gin the MASIE record that  suggests that even that  measure has increased over the past 12 days.
http://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots.html

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3040 on: August 05, 2015, 05:46:34 PM »
Perhaps you should work more on your reading comprehension.
Ad hominem.

Everyone, please don't feed the trolls.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 466
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3041 on: August 05, 2015, 06:08:10 PM »
More evidence of the impending significant slowdown. NORSEX Ice Area is making an early turn. I fully expect sea ice extent loss on JAXA over the next 5-10 days to average under 50,000 square kilometers per day.




jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3410
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 650
  • Likes Given: 244
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3042 on: August 05, 2015, 06:23:58 PM »
More evidence of the impending significant slowdown. NORSEX Ice Area is making an early turn. I fully expect sea ice extent loss on JAXA over the next 5-10 days to average under 50,000 square kilometers per day

That is a line on a graph.

Several of us have provided very reasonable refutations of your assertion regarding the Beaufort and Chukchi.

Explain first why the numbers you expect would be a slowdown. Then please, show us why. Where will the heat already present go, if not into the ice?
This space for Rent.

weatherdude88

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 466
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3043 on: August 05, 2015, 06:39:21 PM »
That is a line on a graph.

Several of us have provided very reasonable refutations of your assertion regarding the Beaufort and Chukchi.

Explain first why the numbers you expect would be a slowdown. Then please, show us why. Where will the heat already present go, if not into the ice?

In my post regarding the Beaufort I stated "if the pattern continues". So even if you believe the hiatus in the region is due to ice export there will still be plenty of ice in the central arctic to export into the Beaufort. In reference to the slowdown, this pattern has been firmly entrenched for greater than one week now. The cloud cover has significantly reduced the solar radiation entering the system. The heat that was in the system from the above average July heat has had plenty of time to moderate over the last two weeks. Models keep below average temperatures over the Beaufort and favor any melting to be in-situ. Therefore I am fully expecting a very slow melt rate in the western/central arctic. The SST's in the eastern arctic being colder than recent years will limit the melting there. 

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3044 on: August 05, 2015, 07:00:50 PM »
Another graph to ponder...
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3410
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 650
  • Likes Given: 244
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3045 on: August 05, 2015, 07:06:29 PM »
That is a line on a graph.

Several of us have provided very reasonable refutations of your assertion regarding the Beaufort and Chukchi.

Explain first why the numbers you expect would be a slowdown. Then please, show us why. Where will the heat already present go, if not into the ice?

In my post regarding the Beaufort I stated "if the pattern continues". So even if you believe the hiatus in the region is due to ice export there will still be plenty of ice in the central arctic to export into the Beaufort. In reference to the slowdown, this pattern has been firmly entrenched for greater than one week now. The cloud cover has significantly reduced the solar radiation entering the system. The heat that was in the system from the above average July heat has had plenty of time to moderate over the last two weeks. Models keep below average temperatures over the Beaufort and favor any melting to be in-situ. Therefore I am fully expecting a very slow melt rate in the western/central arctic. The SST's in the eastern arctic being colder than recent years will limit the melting there.

Excuse me? Lower SSTs?

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_anomaly_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png

Permit me to add, Peripheral extent supported by export from the CAB is NOT good news, nor indicative of a hiatus in ice loss.  Thicker ice which does not melt out will still lose crucial volume.

I very much disagree with your argument that "July heat has had plenty of time to moderate", and challenge you to explain exactly what you mean and how this reduces end of season momentum.

It would be difficult to imagine how there could *not* be some reduction in intensity with the weather, as July by most accounts was as bad for ice preservation as it can get, and we are now seeing the sharp inevitable decay of insulation running up to the equinox. It similarly has been shown that August weather can greatly reduce melt back, as 2013 and 2014 proved. The caveat is I see as yet no similarity between those years and 2015's weather, and regardless, that weather would not prevent the massive accumulation of heat in the water *already* from taking its toll on the ice.

I will give you a counter Hypothesis.  The weather will continue to be middling - not particularly hot nor cold - over the central basin.  Heat on the periphery will remain high. Similarly, it will neither be stagnant nor over active, with the pattern of small storms continuing, and perhaps even intensifying slightly as seasonal fall storms bring energy north from the tropics. There will be much more circulation from depth because of this than there was in 2013 and 2014.

The heat already in the Arctic - as illustrated by SST anomalies - will continue its monotonous unspectacular digestion of MYI, quite possibly into early October for a late minimum which most probably will displace 2011 or both 2011 and 2007. It will be no higher that 4th.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 07:40:43 PM by jdallen »
This space for Rent.

Jim Pettit

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3046 on: August 05, 2015, 07:29:39 PM »
Jim,

Perhaps you should work more on your reading comprehension. I was responding to David's quote below where he claims that the MASIE metric has not increased at all over the past 12 days (now 13 days) by visually eye balling a graph without looking at the raw data. 

I enjoy these fora Neven has provided for the chance to discuss Arctic sea ice (and its rapid disappearance) with intellectually honest people, most of whom are smarter and/or more knowledgeable than me. And that's true even when disagreements--sometimes heated ones--arise here. But heated disagreements are one thing; ad hominems, obfuscation, and avoidance are something else entirely. Throw those in with a little cherry-picking and wishful thinking, and I can see that you're not the type with whom I enjoy bantering. Not at all. So, good luck in your future endeavors, my friend. And try to be honest with yourself, even if you find that difficult to do with others...

budmantis

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1220
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3047 on: August 05, 2015, 08:35:40 PM »
Weatherdude88:

Take some advice from a long time lurker and very rare commenter, there are some pretty sharp minds on this forum, people you would do well to listen to, as I do.

Bud

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3048 on: August 05, 2015, 08:40:33 PM »
I can tolerate weatherdude88's prediction of a slowdown, even though he cherrypicks his sources. But he has to stay civil, of course, and not tell people to work on their reading comprehension, which is annoying. That I won't tolerate for very long.

Area and extent start to decrease around this time, either way. Whether they stall or continue to drop steadily depends on the (late) melting momentum. I don't think we'll see very large drops, and the weather definitely comes into play again when whatever momentum there is, runs out in a couple of weeks, and it's all down to compaction. There's a lot of potential for compaction.

But first we want to know what will happen in and around the Beaufort holes, of course. That's more interesting than the numbers right now. I think I'm going to post about those holes on the ASIB over the weekend. They're spectacular.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1764
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3049 on: August 05, 2015, 10:17:54 PM »
For what it is worth...

While MYI has clearly played a strong role in Beaufort this year, and seems to be the simplest explanation for the recent stall in Chukchi. I don't know how low either region will go given current data and the evolution of the melt season so far. I have just spent two hours trying to come up with something convincing either way for both regions...

For example, using 4 August extent or compactness in Beaufort vs minimum extent... The extent suggests a significant remnant of ice by the minimum, the compactness indicates virtually no ice.

So I am sceptical about strong claims either way. I have yet to see anyone come up with a convincing argument for either a significant remnant of ice, or no ice at the minimum. Don't both sides gang up on me at once!  ;D