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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (April)  (Read 418010 times)

crandles

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1450 on: March 08, 2017, 03:40:15 PM »

I will grant that since 1979 the weather models have become largely scientific, but PIOMAS is in essence in the last stages of Alchemy, not Science.  And the general circulation models are still simply Alchemy -- no longer quite Astrology.

Call them educated guesses, or call them prognostication -- but they are not science.  They will become science once they are repeatedly reproduced and their predictions have been demonstrated to reliably be correct.

Quite crazy.

At most it has to be reproducible not actually reproduced identically. Reproduced similarly is often better than identical reproduction.

And you honestly think there hasn't been any work on whether what PIOMAS shows bears up with measurements?

Model Validation and Uncertainty

PIOMAS has been extensively validated through comparisons with observations from US-Navy submarines, oceanographic moorings, and satellites. In addition model runs were performed in which model parameters and assimilation procedures were altered.  From these validation studies we arrive at conservative estimates of the uncertainty in the trend of  ± 1.0 103 km3/decade. The uncertainty of the  monthly averaged ice volume anomaly is estimated as ±0.75  103 km3. Total volume uncertainties are larger than those for the anomaly because model biases are removed when calculating the anomalies. The uncertainty for October total ice volume is estimated to be  ±1.35 103 km3 .  Comparison of winter  total volumes with other volume estimates need to account for the fact that the PIOMAS domain currently does not extend southward far enough to cover all areas that can have winter time ice cover.  Areas in the Sea of Okhotsk and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence are partially excluded from the domain.  Details on model validation can be found in Schweiger et al. 2011  and (here). Additional information on PIOMAS can be found (here)
A comprehensive library of sea ice thickness data for model validation has been compiled and is available (here)

Jim Williams

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1451 on: March 08, 2017, 03:41:30 PM »
Yeah, according to JW, then, my friend who went into astrophysics actually went into the arts or humanities rather than into a science, since he can't test repeatedly in a lab his theories about how black holes and white dwarfs etc behave in the universe.
I never mentioned anything about a lab, and the current creation myth is only partly falsifiable.  You can in fact run a very large number of experiments.  The Science involved is called Astronomy, and all you have to do to be an Astronomer is to observe.  I'm not completely convinced, however that Astrophysics is a Science.  There are way too many untestable assumptions, and it smells too much like the other religions for my tastes.

Back to the question of PIOMAS.  It seems to me we have a state of knowledge here much like in Chemistry before the development of the Periodic Table MODEL.  We are prepared to experiment, but we haven't yet collected enough data to make any sense out of our observations.


ktonine

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1452 on: March 08, 2017, 03:46:53 PM »

I will grant that since 1979 the weather models have become largely scientific, but PIOMAS is in essence in the last stages of Alchemy, not Science.  And the general circulation models are still simply Alchemy -- no longer quite Astrology.

Doubling down on an obviously dumb statement is not an improvement.

You do realize these general circulation models are the heart of weather prediction - don't you?  Their skill has limits, but alchemy?  You're on drugs.

PIOMAS?  And your analysis is based on what?  Which of the physical equations they're using do you dispute?  Have you published even the smallest part of your analysis of the flaws in PIOMAS?  Can you even name which physical equations the PIOMAS model uses?

Ignorance is not a position of strength from which to argue.

jai mitchell

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1453 on: March 08, 2017, 04:13:19 PM »
I'm betting that at some point the ocean (maritime) climate completely overwhelms the desert climate -- and the Arctic goes from an Ice Cap to basically ice free all winter.  I just don't know exactly when.


This paper http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/pubman/item/escidoc:2075934:9/component/escidoc:2262302/jcli-d-15-0466.1.pdf suggests that Winter ice cover will go away within a couple of decades once the oceans warm enough.  It is a simple model and makes sense, however it certainly seems to be discounting the potential for large atmospheric circulation changes in a warming world.  It would be conceivable that, under high-emission scenarios, that the global atmospheric circulation effect could drive this within, maybe, 100 years?  certainly not much less on the very worst extreme.  There is simply too much heat loss at the arctic winter.

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ktonine

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1454 on: March 08, 2017, 04:49:07 PM »
I'm betting that at some point the ocean (maritime) climate completely overwhelms the desert climate -- and the Arctic goes from an Ice Cap to basically ice free all winter.  I just don't know exactly when.


This paper http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/pubman/item/escidoc:2075934:9/component/escidoc:2262302/jcli-d-15-0466.1.pdf suggests that Winter ice cover will go away within a couple of decades once the oceans warm enough.  It is a simple model and makes sense, however it certainly seems to be discounting the potential for large atmospheric circulation changes in a warming world.  It would be conceivable that, under high-emission scenarios, that the global atmospheric circulation effect could drive this within, maybe, 100 years?  certainly not much less on the very worst extreme.  There is simply too much heat loss at the arctic winter.


The paper in question is: On the Potential for Abrupt Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss,
S. BATHIANY, D. NOTZ, T. MAURITSEN, G. RAEDEL, and V. BROVKIN, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1

The last two sentences of the abstract should not be ignored:

The loss of basinwide Arctic winter sea ice area, however, is still gradual in most models since the threshold mechanism proposed here is reversible and not associated with the existence of multiple steady states. As this occurs in every model analyzed here and is independent of any specific parameterization, it is likely to be relevant in the real world.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1455 on: March 08, 2017, 05:15:07 PM »
ktonine, thank you for quoting the actual paper. I believe their result is wrong, very wrong, but I will dig the whole paper up and then try to find the "bugs" (in my personal opinion of course).

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1456 on: March 08, 2017, 05:17:47 PM »
I'm betting that at some point the ocean (maritime) climate completely overwhelms the desert climate -- and the Arctic goes from an Ice Cap to basically ice free all winter.  I just don't know exactly when.


This paper http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/pubman/item/escidoc:2075934:9/component/escidoc:2262302/jcli-d-15-0466.1.pdf suggests that Winter ice cover will go away within a couple of decades once the oceans warm enough.  It is a simple model and makes sense, however it certainly seems to be discounting the potential for large atmospheric circulation changes in a warming world.  It would be conceivable that, under high-emission scenarios, that the global atmospheric circulation effect could drive this within, maybe, 100 years?  certainly not much less on the very worst extreme.  There is simply too much heat loss at the arctic winter.

Hi jai,

I'm confused about what you've done here in that it seems to attribute my words to Buddy and I'm not sure where the paper reference is from.  Also, you didn't seem to say anything.

Jim Williams

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1457 on: March 08, 2017, 06:41:41 PM »
I'm betting that at some point the ocean (maritime) climate completely overwhelms the desert climate -- and the Arctic goes from an Ice Cap to basically ice free all winter.  I just don't know exactly when.


This paper http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/pubman/item/escidoc:2075934:9/component/escidoc:2262302/jcli-d-15-0466.1.pdf suggests that Winter ice cover will go away within a couple of decades once the oceans warm enough.  It is a simple model and makes sense, however it certainly seems to be discounting the potential for large atmospheric circulation changes in a warming world.  It would be conceivable that, under high-emission scenarios, that the global atmospheric circulation effect could drive this within, maybe, 100 years?  certainly not much less on the very worst extreme.  There is simply too much heat loss at the arctic winter.


The paper in question is: On the Potential for Abrupt Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss,
S. BATHIANY, D. NOTZ, T. MAURITSEN, G. RAEDEL, and V. BROVKIN, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0466.1

The last two sentences of the abstract should not be ignored:

The loss of basinwide Arctic winter sea ice area, however, is still gradual in most models since the threshold mechanism proposed here is reversible and not associated with the existence of multiple steady states. As this occurs in every model analyzed here and is independent of any specific parameterization, it is likely to be relevant in the real world.


Um....so....that seems to say that all the models are pure baloney (or something worse).

I am here to read the scat and figure out what the "Scientists" last ate for dinner before they died.  The first book on Science anyone needs to read is "On the Structure of Scientific Revolutions." Be sure to read it again every time you get full of yourself.


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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1458 on: March 08, 2017, 08:09:59 PM »
Jai:  The below....is NOT something I wrote.  Not sure HOW you attribute that to me...but it's not me.


: Buddy  March 07, 2017, 06:10:23 PM

I'm betting that at some point the ocean (maritime) climate completely overwhelms the desert climate -- and the Arctic goes from an Ice Cap to basically ice free all winter.  I just don't know exactly when.

Maybe you mixed up the header from somewhere else....with something someone else said.  But I didn't write that.
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Cid_Yama

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1459 on: March 08, 2017, 08:29:14 PM »
The loss of basinwide Arctic winter sea ice area, however, is still gradual in most models since the threshold mechanism proposed here is reversible and not associated with the existence of multiple steady states. As this occurs in every model analyzed here and is independent of any specific parameterization, it is likely to be relevant in the real world.

That is because of the way the models are designed.  They are notoriously incapable of modeling abrupt changes.  Thus, the statement reads, because we are incapable of adequately modeling abrupt changes, they must not exist.

So far it has proved impossible to create a model that adequately reflects both gradual and abrupt changes in the same model.

That says nothing about the probability of abrupt climate change in our future.

         

 

« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 09:35:17 PM by Cid_Yama »

Blizzard92

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1460 on: March 08, 2017, 08:39:24 PM »
Yikes at this thread recently and hostility towards scientists and/or climate models... I'd be happy to discuss PIOMAS more (submitting a paper soon on it), but not if the response is just going to be "all models are wrong."
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1461 on: March 08, 2017, 08:42:12 PM »
We will be glad to hear what you have to say Zeke.  Whoever does not like it they can close their eyes....
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Cid_Yama

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1462 on: March 08, 2017, 08:47:55 PM »
Models do quite well modeling what they were designed to.

Models that model gradual changes capture those changes quite well.  And any model pushed beyond it's design parameters will fail.

That is just a reflection of our current capabilities and understanding. 

As our knowledge and capabilities increase, our models improve or are replaced by better models that expands our knowledge even more. 

Deniers want to discredit ALL models for political purposes, because they don't like what they say.  They could care less about their capabilities.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 09:35:53 PM by Cid_Yama »

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1463 on: March 08, 2017, 09:42:07 PM »
Nature Climate Change, Ice-free Arctic at 1.5 °C? James A. Screen & Daniel Williamson
The article is pay-walled, is anyone aware of an open access copy?

Jim Williams

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1464 on: March 08, 2017, 09:47:30 PM »
Yikes at this thread recently and hostility towards scientists and/or climate models... I'd be happy to discuss PIOMAS more (submitting a paper soon on it), but not if the response is just going to be "all models are wrong."
Actually, as far as I can tell PIOMAS is a very good example of Near Science.  It is the Scintismists I want to burn off.  I specifically want to kill anyone who makes even the slightest appeal  to Authority -- with the Authorities being first against the wall when the revolution comes.


oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1465 on: March 08, 2017, 10:10:14 PM »
Jim, may I suggest to keep this thread to PIOMAS only, and leave the other content, whatever it may be, to different threads? 2017 open thread, conservative scientists and its consequences, I bet there are quite a few of those.

ktonine

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1466 on: March 08, 2017, 10:14:53 PM »
Yikes at this thread recently and hostility towards scientists and/or climate models... I'd be happy to discuss PIOMAS more (submitting a paper soon on it), but not if the response is just going to be "all models are wrong."

Yes, it is disturbing to find comments that could come straight off the pages of WUWT here.  Dunning-Kruger effect where those that know nothing about how these models are designed or what's inside them somehow believe they know more than experts in the subject.

Fortunately it's only a handful of those that frequent here.

Jim Williams

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1467 on: March 08, 2017, 10:28:20 PM »
Jim, may I suggest to keep this thread to PIOMAS only, and leave the other content, whatever it may be, to different threads? 2017 open thread, conservative scientists and its consequences, I bet there are quite a few of those.
PIOMAS is the best of the lot.  The problem is the Scientismists who think the models are God.

I just want facts on the ground, and not crap pretending to be Science.

Cid_Yama

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1468 on: March 08, 2017, 10:30:37 PM »
I specifically want to kill anyone who makes even the slightest appeal  to Authority -- with the Authorities being first against the wall when the revolution comes.

Why of course you would.  Because when Those Who Know More about the subject step forward to block the path of the Republican Corporatists, it can be inconvenient for them.

In a world where most DO NOT KNOW, even a little, they have no choice BUT to appeal to Those that do know the most about the subject.

The Republicans want to replace Those that do Know being in a position of Authority on the subject, with their own political leaders, who don't appear to know squat, but support wealth accumulation above all else.  (That is how Religions work.  See the rise of the Catholic Church.)

Faith above Reason.  With the faith that wealth accumulation (and wealth concentration) is the highest good.

Republicans are at their core Fideists.

 

 

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1469 on: March 08, 2017, 10:33:14 PM »
Nature Climate Change, Ice-free Arctic at 1.5 °C? James A. Screen & Daniel Williamson
The article is pay-walled, is anyone aware of an open access copy?


You can download it from the sci-hub website:

http://sci-hub.cc/10.1038/nclimate3248

There is a download button  (labeled: сохранить статью)  at the left of that page.

misanthroptimist

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1470 on: March 08, 2017, 10:33:46 PM »
Yikes at this thread recently and hostility towards scientists and/or climate models... I'd be happy to discuss PIOMAS more (submitting a paper soon on it), but not if the response is just going to be "all models are wrong."
Actually, as far as I can tell PIOMAS is a very good example of Near Science. ...
PIOMAS is indeed science. The fact that it shows something some dislike for political reasons notwithstanding. Either way, offering to resolve any conflict with murder is a bit over the top.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1471 on: March 08, 2017, 10:41:17 PM »
Nature Climate Change, Ice-free Arctic at 1.5 °C? James A. Screen & Daniel Williamson
The article is pay-walled, is anyone aware of an open access copy?


You can download it from the sci-hub website:

http://sci-hub.cc/10.1038/nclimate3248

There is a download button  (labeled: сохранить статью)  at the left of that page.

Thanks! Now bookmarked for future searches.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1472 on: March 08, 2017, 10:59:33 PM »
Can we PLEASE keep the politics and bashing of scientists out of this thread? If this keeps up, I'm going to start deleting comments, because I'm fed up with the derailing off-topic rants at every turn. Don't you folks understand how a Forum works? There are threads for different subjects. Let's learn and share knowledge together, and take the polarizing activism elsewhere.

PS And Zack is not Zeke.  ;)

« Last Edit: March 08, 2017, 11:33:14 PM by Neven »
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wili

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1473 on: March 08, 2017, 11:08:19 PM »
+10^10
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1474 on: March 08, 2017, 11:52:26 PM »
Can we PLEASE keep the politics and bashing of scientists out of this thread? If this keeps up, I'm going to start deleting comments, because I'm fed up with the derailing off-topic rants at every turn. Don't you folks understand how a Forum works? There are threads for different subjects. Let's learn and share knowledge together, and take the polarizing activism elsewhere.

PS And Zack is not Zeke.  ;)
Not the bashing of so-called scientists, since I find that what is basically wrong with the thread (along with the bleeding hearts).  I agree with sticking to the data.

Cid_Yama

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1475 on: March 09, 2017, 01:13:52 AM »
Moved off-topic exchange to a new topic under The Rest.  Post your further off-topic comments there.

Neven, figured I'd save you the trouble.  You have enough on your plate.

 

FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1476 on: March 09, 2017, 02:39:56 AM »



The models all say the rate of extent loss will slow down as ice free is approached.

The models don't say a word. They can't talk. People interpret the results of the models based on their expertise and personal perspective. They write up the results and conclusions of their work with models.

The problem with model results is that they have been consistently underestimating the rate of sea ice loss. That's why folks here suspect, based on observing the actual rate of ice loss vs older predictions in the literature, that an ice free September will likely happen sooner than the models are indicating. The models may be missing critical feedbacks or important processes.

Models are very much part of science but sea ice models still need a lot more research and development to be reliable.

As for the 1.5 Celsius limit, unless there are large volcanic eruptions combined with a new Maunder minimum type event, it's almost certain to be exceeded. The upwelling of cold ocean water  keeps surface temperatures well below equilibrium levels for this level of CO2 and other GHGs. Moreover, China and India are starting to reduce sulfate emissions that help cool the climate. So, even if CO2 emissions magically went to zero tomorrow, the climate would continue to warm for decades without some major event like a huge volcanic eruption putting SO4 into the stratosphere near the equator.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1477 on: March 09, 2017, 10:04:02 AM »


As for the 1.5 Celsius limit, unless there are large volcanic eruptions combined with a new Maunder minimum type event, it's almost certain to be exceeded. The upwelling of cold ocean water  keeps surface temperatures well below equilibrium levels for this level of CO2 and other GHGs. Moreover, China and India are starting to reduce sulfate emissions that help cool the climate. So, even if CO2 emissions magically went to zero tomorrow, the climate would continue to warm for decades without some major event like a huge volcanic eruption putting SO4 into the stratosphere near the equator.

We passed 1.5c in Feb last year. This would suggest to me that we are already beyond 1.5c but the 'dimming' we suffer from , and the slow realisation of the full forcing of CO2's warming potential, means that temps are still seen to be 0.3c below the stated limit.

If China continues with its 'clean up' then the Pacific regions worst impacted by 'dimming' will warm and Nino-like impact air temps around them.

If Nino reforms over summer will we see 1.5c passed again?

Then if 07's weather returns this year we will be ice free and this may push temps beyong 1.5c in Sept?
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1478 on: March 09, 2017, 12:26:14 PM »
HELP ! Which are the easiest places to get graphs on volume during the month ? (I am a sea ice volume addict and the PIOMAS monthly update fix wears off  too soon).

crandles

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1479 on: March 09, 2017, 01:02:03 PM »
HELP ! Which are the easiest places to get graphs on volume during the month ? (I am a sea ice volume addict and the PIOMAS monthly update fix wears off  too soon).


I can't work out how to find latest updates to this Wipneus graph
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1611.0;attach=42001;image

http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent/
has a volume tab but doesn't seem to have volume at record low which seems surprising given FDD.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1480 on: March 09, 2017, 01:07:52 PM »
HELP ! Which are the easiest places to get graphs on volume during the month ? (I am a sea ice volume addict and the PIOMAS monthly update fix wears off  too soon).

I think PIOMAS has at least been a once per month product, the reason being they've been cross-checking back and forth various measurements done in the month in question. I don't know how extensively this is nowadays done. Buoy measurements might help in withdrawals. I don't have the link here, check the buoy thread.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1481 on: March 09, 2017, 01:36:42 PM »


As for the 1.5 Celsius limit, unless there are large volcanic eruptions combined with a new Maunder minimum type event, it's almost certain to be exceeded. The upwelling of cold ocean water  keeps surface temperatures well below equilibrium levels for this level of CO2 and other GHGs. Moreover, China and India are starting to reduce sulfate emissions that help cool the climate. So, even if CO2 emissions magically went to zero tomorrow, the climate would continue to warm for decades without some major event like a huge volcanic eruption putting SO4 into the stratosphere near the equator.

We passed 1.5c in Feb last year. This would suggest to me that we are already beyond 1.5c but the 'dimming' we suffer from , and the slow realisation of the full forcing of CO2's warming potential, means that temps are still seen to be 0.3c below the stated limit.

If China continues with its 'clean up' then the Pacific regions worst impacted by 'dimming' will warm and Nino-like impact air temps around them.

If Nino reforms over summer will we see 1.5c passed again?

Then if 07's weather returns this year we will be ice free and this may push temps beyong 1.5c in Sept?

They moved the goalposts.  They changed from preindustrial 1850-1900 to 1880-1910, then to 20th century average.

We are actually at 1.8C above the preindustrial 1850-1900.  Which itself really isn't preindustrial.

Now we have Britain and the US using different goalposts, but nobody using the original 1850-1900.

I guess they figured no one would notice.  But this is off-topic for this thread.

   
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 01:54:24 PM by Cid_Yama »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1482 on: March 09, 2017, 02:32:17 PM »
Come to ASIF every day. Don't often visit this thread. Given the nature of the discussion, doubt I'll come back soon.  ???

More smoke than light.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 02:50:06 PM by Shared Humanity »

FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1483 on: March 09, 2017, 03:25:27 PM »
Come to ASIF every day. Don't often visit this thread. Given the nature of the discussion, doubt I'll come back soon.  ???

More smoke than light.

Back to the sea ice. The key question this winter is how much has the heavy snow that has been delivered by warm storms that moved up from the Atlantic affected the thickness measurements?

Below is the latest 28 day Cryosat map. It shows the development of thick ice to the Eurasian side of the 0 - 180 line. PIOMAS doesn't show thick ice there. I think PIOMAS is getting it right. Based on the weather this winter there should be a considerable accumulation of snow in that area. The bottom layer of that snow will have become bubble filled white ice, so it's hard to say that Cryosat is wrong. The quality of the ice there is likely different from the ice in areas that have had little snow. I don't know how to factor in the ice quality issue but it will play a role in the coming melt season.


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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1484 on: March 09, 2017, 03:32:28 PM »
They moved the goalposts.  They changed from preindustrial 1850-1900 to 1880-1910, then to 20th century average.

We are actually at 1.8C above the preindustrial 1850-1900.  Which itself really isn't preindustrial.

Now we have Britain and the US using different goalposts, but nobody using the original 1850-1900.

I guess they figured no one would notice.  But this is off-topic for this thread.

   
You can download the data from NASA for yourself and see that we have most definitely not exceeded 1.5C yet. In fact, I downloaded the data myself last year, put it in a Google doc, and the result is attached.

They use a baseline of 1950-80, but it is easy enough to find abstracts in the Consequences section of this forum which give a rough idea of the temperature increase from 1750 to 1880-1910, which just so happens to be only about 0.06C. Along with that, the rise from 1880-1910 to the 1950-80 baseline was 0.2C. Therefore, I used a baseline addition of 0.26C to obtain the preindustrial temperature.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2017, 12:15:19 AM by Darvince »

Darvince

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1485 on: March 09, 2017, 03:53:56 PM »
Anyway, so the topic doesn't derail again into awful nonsense, I am quoting Wipneus's thickness map updates, which have been lost in the crap:

Here is the animation for February.
This month I present the thickness maps for the last day of the month, instead of the mean monthly map. Should be more relevant.
Here the thickness map for 28 Feb 2017, comparison with previous years and differences with previous years.
What I find quite interesting is that the first year ice in the Beaufort this year is actually thicker than it was last year. Has Beaufort been cooler this year?

Pmt111500

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1486 on: March 09, 2017, 04:27:18 PM »
Anyway, so the topic doesn't derail again into awful nonsense, I am quoting Wipneus's thickness map updates, which have been lost in the crap:

Here is the animation for February.
This month I present the thickness maps for the last day of the month, instead of the mean monthly map. Should be more relevant.
Here the thickness map for 28 Feb 2017, comparison with previous years and differences with previous years.
What I find quite interesting is that the first year ice in the Beaufort this year is actually thicker than it was last year. Has Beaufort been cooler this year?
if on computer, could you also post the image itself? Thsnk you.
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seaicesailor

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1487 on: March 09, 2017, 04:27:38 PM »
Anyway, so the topic doesn't derail again into awful nonsense, I am quoting Wipneus's thickness map updates, which have been lost in the crap:

Here is the animation for February.
This month I present the thickness maps for the last day of the month, instead of the mean monthly map. Should be more relevant.
Here the thickness map for 28 Feb 2017, comparison with previous years and differences with previous years.
What I find quite interesting is that the first year ice in the Beaufort this year is actually thicker than it was last year. Has Beaufort been cooler this year?
A lot of the thin FYI in Beaufort appeared in fact in 2016 during February so it was few-days-old ice. Product of ice drift opening up gaps along the coasts and refreezing immediately. Like Laptev sea this year.
Well, this year there is no drift due to Gyre, no Gyre to speak of, I guess it has been mitigated by so many storms

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1488 on: March 09, 2017, 05:05:01 PM »
Note to everyone: Don't bother to post more off-topic comments or try to have the last word. I'm going to delete derailing stuff, never to be found again.
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oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1489 on: March 09, 2017, 05:32:36 PM »
HELP ! Which are the easiest places to get graphs on volume during the month ? (I am a sea ice volume addict and the PIOMAS monthly update fix wears off  too soon).
Besides the PIOMAS daily data which annoyingly gets updated once a month, there is the DMI volume graph which is notoriously detached from reality/PIOMAS (most visible at the turning points), and an AMSR2 volume graph posted here from time to time. I don't have the links readily available at the moment, but should be easy to find.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1490 on: March 09, 2017, 06:45:36 PM »
Note to everyone: Don't bother to post more off-topic comments or try to have the last word. I'm going to delete derailing stuff, never to be found again.

I have been re-reading your typepad on Feb 2017. What do you think will resolve the Cryosat / PIOMAS divergence ?  Time ?

Lord M Vader

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1491 on: March 09, 2017, 07:26:50 PM »
Neven: thank you for deleting things that are completely OT! :) Hat tip!

Nevens last blogpost discussed the differences between two volume measurements (CryoSat and PIOMAS) and I can't say I'm surprised given all those cyclones but this also highligh the important question, which will impact the upcoming melting season: how thick is the snow cover onto the ice?

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1492 on: March 09, 2017, 09:40:32 PM »
I have been re-reading your typepad on Feb 2017. What do you think will resolve the Cryosat / PIOMAS divergence ?  Time ?

Yes, once the snow on the ice has melted out, there will be a re-set. If that's the reason, of course.

I've been in contact with someone from PIOMAS and he wisely said: "Given the short record and considerable uncertainty in both the model and the observations  it is quite possible that both of the close correlation and the divergence are coincidental."

The PIOMAS people and Robert Ricker from AWI know about this now, so they'll also keep an eye on it.
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Tigertown

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1493 on: March 09, 2017, 10:47:55 PM »
HELP ! Which are the easiest places to get graphs on volume during the month ? (I am a sea ice volume addict and the PIOMAS monthly update fix wears off  too soon).

Wipneus does a graph from JAXA data and although it is usually lower than PIOMAS, it seems to me to at least be consistent. I like to use it so as to be able to know what the trend is at any given time.

  https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1494 on: March 10, 2017, 04:52:17 AM »
NASA Icebridge just flew a north pole transect mission March 8, 2017. They should have ice thickness data that shows which of the PIOMASS, Cryosat, DMI, Jaxa models have the thick ice in the right location.

Sometimes they release the thickness transect data very quickly.

https://www.facebook.com/NasaOperationIcebridge/photos/pcb.1262585787151772/1262585560485128/

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1495 on: March 10, 2017, 10:43:08 AM »
Thanks Tigertown for the URL.

The graph has made me think again about any substantial reduction in the sea ice volume maximum this year. Isn't it a pain when data interferes with one's pet speculations?

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1496 on: March 10, 2017, 12:11:47 PM »
Personally, I think we are in for a long melt season and will be glad the volume has built up as much as possible.

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1497 on: March 10, 2017, 07:03:43 PM »
NASA Icebridge just flew a north pole transect mission March 8, 2017. They should have ice thickness data that shows which of the PIOMASS, Cryosat, DMI, Jaxa models have the thick ice in the right location.

Sometimes they release the thickness transect data very quickly.


It will be interesting to see their data for sea ice thickness and snow depth.  In previous years they usually released their quick-look dataset in late May.

Planned flights for the next several weeks:





Now, for the first time, the campaign will expand its reach to explore the Arctic’s Eurasian Basin through two research flights based out of Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the northern Atlantic Ocean.

The mission is surveying the region as part of its 2017 Arctic spring campaign, which completed its first flight on March 9 and will continue until May 12.


https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/nasa-s-aerial-survey-of-polar-ice-expands-its-arctic-reach

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1498 on: March 17, 2017, 08:32:52 AM »
Irregularly updated: the monthly Fram export graphs. The low volume numbers of late do not seem to be caused by higher than usual Fram exports.

Since these graphs are based on average monthly thickness and velocity numbers, I have some doubts about their validity. Daily numbers are available now, at some time I intend to uses these.

« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 04:19:31 PM by Wipneus »

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1499 on: March 17, 2017, 03:38:10 PM »
Irregularly updated: the monthly Fram export graphs. The low volume numbers of late do not seem to be caused by higher than usual Fram exports.

Since these graphs are based on average monthly thickness and velocity numbers, I have some doubts about their validity. Daily numbers are available now, at some time I intend to uses these.

Thanks, glad to see an update of this crucial series.
Fram export looks to be well above average for the next few days.  Maybe the lull will resume after that, but it's a bad time of year to lose that thick ice.