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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (March)  (Read 385063 times)

jai mitchell

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1500 on: March 17, 2017, 05:16:13 PM »
the graphs need to be normalized to current total volume, as a percent of total volume, not absolute numbers.  otherwise they give a false indicator.
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magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1501 on: March 17, 2017, 05:41:59 PM »
the graphs need to be normalized to current total volume, as a percent of total volume, not absolute numbers.  otherwise they give a false indicator.

absolutely, very much self evident but can easily be overseen, 50% of volume exported of 25% of volume left is double the loss or something like that LOL

thanks for hinting
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FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1502 on: March 17, 2017, 05:45:30 PM »
Irregularly updated: the monthly Fram export graphs. The low volume numbers of late do not seem to be caused by higher than usual Fram exports.

Since these graphs are based on average monthly thickness and velocity numbers, I have some doubts about their validity. Daily numbers are available now, at some time I intend to uses these.

Just, wow, Wip. Fall 2016 through now shows a very delayed Fram export curve.  However, the Arctic Oscillation has been cyclonic, favoring export. That leads me to conclude, based also on observations of it happening, that ice melted out before it ever got to the Fram. It was exported as fresh water.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1503 on: March 17, 2017, 06:15:11 PM »
Remember: during most of the NH autumn and winter, much of the ice heading towards the Fram melted before it got there!
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

jai mitchell

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1504 on: March 18, 2017, 06:59:17 PM »
I like the export graphs though, really top notch and worth peer review in my book.  just saying that for a year on year predictive value it would be better to have it graphed as a percent of total current volume.  I believe that this would show this year being slightly higher than previous years.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1505 on: March 18, 2017, 08:02:41 PM »
I believe that this would show this year being slightly higher than previous years.


This years numbers should be getting a boost:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/03/facts-about-the-arctic-in-march-2017/#comment-219974
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magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1506 on: March 19, 2017, 06:39:56 PM »
I like the export graphs though, really top notch and worth peer review in my book.  just saying that for a year on year predictive value it would be better to have it graphed as a percent of total current volume.  I believe that this would show this year being slightly higher than previous years.

significantly higher IMO but i understand that you wanted to stay careful LOL :D ;)
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 04:32:15 PM by magnamentis »
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crandles

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1507 on: March 22, 2017, 04:14:56 PM »
Latest daily volume numbers file while official site is not providing it.

Edit. Sorry should have said nothing new in here, really just making available for PaulS at stoat's site who couldn't get at data from psc site and still seems to be unavailable from there.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2017, 12:34:46 AM by crandles »

Jim Williams

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1508 on: March 22, 2017, 05:14:18 PM »
Latest daily volume numbers file while official site is not providing it.
Same file cleaned up in Google Sheets and re-exported as CSV.  (It is a .CSV file, but I could not upload that type so I renamed it as txt.)  No idea what I am going to do with it now that I have it, but I figured it would be an easier format for many to deal with.

As an aside, I know it is an artifact of the decimal system and the units of measurement but the way vol under 10 showed up as a new column I had to clean up and then increased in size was striking.

Tigertown

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« Reply #1509 on: March 22, 2017, 11:37:46 PM »
Latest daily volume numbers file while official site is not providing it.
The last update is for Feb. 28th in this file, which we have already.


P.S. I would make an educated guess that PIOMAS  is around 20.5k km3 right now and currently dropping.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2017, 12:03:42 AM by Tigertown »