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Author Topic: Arctic Methane Release  (Read 113447 times)

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #50 on: March 14, 2013, 04:26:11 PM »
The METOP 2 IASI CH4 imagery is now completely updated through March 13, 12-24 hr. It reveals ongoing wide spread areas of methane release and concentration in the North Atlantic to the Kara Sea, well over 2150 PPBv in some locations.

In the Arctic, as fracturing of the ice occurs, it is showing higher concentrations in areas of the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas, as well as the Beaufort.

For details. see: https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

I will update Dr. Yurganov's and the AIRS/Giovanni imagery shortly. Conversation with Dr. Yurganov reveals that the Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea CH4 concentrations are the highest for March 1-10 ever recorded.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #51 on: March 14, 2013, 04:56:32 PM »
The AIRS/Giovanni CH4 for March 1-10, 2013, and Dr. Yurganov's IASI 600 mb imagery have been updated.

According to Dr. Yurganov, the Norwegian and Barents CH4 readings are the highest for March 1-10 on record.

See: https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2013/home


werther

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #52 on: March 15, 2013, 08:55:17 PM »
Harvesting methane clathrates…

I just watched one of the stupidest features ever produced on Dutch national broadcast news.

I hate to say this. For I always have this silent hope I didn’t get the message right… or I might be wrong.

What was the subject? Japanese scientists seem to have succeeded in extracting gaseous methane from seabottom deposits of methane clathrates.
So the news goes out… hurrah… the Japanese may be able to exploit this source of energy for at least a hundred years! So may we, eventually. It was only weeks ago the same critic less bragging was used when Wintershall found a new oilfield in the Dutch part of the North Sea.

Problem solved… we can continue our lifestyle.

Dromicosuchus

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #53 on: March 16, 2013, 03:07:04 AM »
Werther:  Honestly, converting it to CO2 directly rather than allowing it to be emitted as methane is probably marginally better for the planet.  'Course, that's "better" in the sense that throwing gasoline on a fire is better than throwing liquid oxygen on a fire, but if we're irresponsible enough to allow global temperature to reach levels high enough to destabilize the clathrates, directly mining and burning them is probably the only thing we could possibly do to "limit" the effects.

That said, I agree that burning them before their destabilization is a foregone conclusion is unbelievably idiotic.  How can such a clever species be so stupid?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #54 on: March 16, 2013, 06:21:42 AM »
Dromicosuchus....  How can such a clever species be so stupid?

It isn't easy. There is a lot of collective effort that goes into this.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2013, 06:27:07 AM by Shared Humanity »

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #55 on: March 17, 2013, 02:57:35 PM »
The METOP 2 IASI CH4 imagery has been updated through March 15 12-24 hrs.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

The Greenland, Norwegian, Barents and Kara Seas continue to have record amounts of methane at 586-600 mb, as high as 2199 PPBv on March 15, 2013 -12-24 hrs.

Even more interesting are the areas of methane release in the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas as the Arctic ice fractures. This is unusual for this time of year. Two Google Earth imagery samples are attached.

When one compares this with surface readings of approx. 1830 PPBv at Mauna Loa at the end of February, 1947 PPBv at Ny-Alesund in mid-February, or early March readings of 1930 PPBv at Barrow, we have a considerably higher set of readings over large portions of the North Atlantic and Arctic.

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #56 on: March 17, 2013, 03:40:03 PM »
A4R,

In your opinion, will these elevated CH4 levels provide enough extra radiative forcing over the arctic regions and North Atlantic to significantly alter this year's melt season??
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #57 on: March 17, 2013, 04:34:03 PM »
OLN,

These are record readings, but it is unknown how much contribution they will make to this year's melt. That may depend on how long into the melt season they continue to exist at high levels. They are a contributor to overall increase in the NH, and will affect temperatures with time.

A4R

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #58 on: March 21, 2013, 12:20:28 AM »
I wonder what the effect of this up-tick in methane release will have in the long term on the globe.

dorlomin

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #59 on: March 21, 2013, 12:15:15 PM »
A4R,

In your opinion, will these elevated CH4 levels provide enough extra radiative forcing over the arctic regions and North Atlantic to significantly alter this year's melt season??
No. It will probably be swamped by two or three orders of magnitude by the changes in albedo from the melt of sea ice. And come high summer, as happens every years, the methane over the artic will have fallen by markedly.
Take it for granted you are wrong.
Just try to work out what about and why.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #60 on: March 21, 2013, 01:50:11 PM »
Are there any scientists or groups that are tracking the trends in permafrost extent? I have seen snapshots of the current extent of permafrost and read reserach here indicating that the boundaries are moving north. Is there an historical record? Could this trend north be recreated to get an annual or by decade retreat picture? This would allow us to measure the square kilometers of melted permafrost that has and is being made available for CO2 and methane release.


Artful Dodger

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #61 on: March 22, 2013, 04:20:58 AM »
Are there any scientists or groups that are tracking the trends in permafrost extent?

Hi H/R,

These are EZ to find, c'est ça?

http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=permafrost
Cheers!
Lodger

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #62 on: March 24, 2013, 05:43:14 PM »
I have updated the AIRS/Aqua methane imagery for March 11-20, 2013. See the attached for the latest readings for the increased concentrations of methane at 359 mb in the CAB.

Also, based on Yurganov's date, the Norwegian and Barents Seas continue to show record methane at 600 mb, which substantiates the METOP2 imagery. There are also increases in the Laptev and ESS as the ice fractures.

See:
https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2013/home


Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #63 on: March 24, 2013, 07:36:21 PM »
I have updated the METOP 2 IASI CH4/methane imagery. There is significant widespread methane at 586 and 718-742 mb in the Arctic. An example is below for March 21, 2013  pm 586 mb.

See: https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

I still have to add the March 23 2013 pm images.

As far as I am aware, we are looking at record methane in the Northern/Arctic atmosphere for March.

The Antarctic also has high methane as well.

frankendoodle

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #64 on: March 24, 2013, 08:32:11 PM »
Seeing as Earth's Northern Hemisphere comprises ~70% of its land mass, it's more important to us terrestrial humans that the Southern hemisphere (no offense intended). I came across this Washington Post article while searching for info about how much the NH has warmed recently.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-unmistakable-increase-in-northern-hemisphere-summer-temperatures/2012/09/14/819b3cc0-fe72-11e1-8adc-499661afe377_blog.html
My question relating to methane is this: If an increase in CO2 has caused and will continue to cause temperature increases in the NH (along with other various positive feed back mechanisms); and these mechanisms have now started the release of CH4 in the form of thawing permafrost and methane clathrates (which is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2); then what negative feedback mechanism exists to stop the CH4 from causing a runaway greenhouse effect?
We have been the cause of excess CO2 and can possibly reduce/eliminate it. But the CH4 cannot be sequestered by flora/micro fauna, nor can we reduce its emissions because the cause of the emissions is heat itself. How can we stop the methane?!

OldLeatherneck

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #65 on: March 25, 2013, 03:15:17 AM »
But the CH4 cannot be sequestered by flora/micro fauna, nor can we reduce its emissions because the cause of the emissions is heat itself. How can we stop the methane?!




More than 60% of global methane emissions are anthropogenic in nature.  I found the above chart on the USGS website nearly a year ago, and it was dated at that time.

I would surmise that it would be more difficult to reduce mankind's dependence on rice than it would be to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.  The most obvious target for reducing anthropogenic methane would be to reduce the consumption of beef or capture the methane emitted from the feedlots.

In answer to your question, there are things we can do to reduce the release of methane, however, until we reduce GHGs globally, there is little we can do to stop the increasing rate of methane release due to melting permafrost.

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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #66 on: April 06, 2013, 04:45:15 PM »
I have updated the METOP 2 IASI CH4 through March 31. No Google earth images yet, but will post those later today.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #67 on: April 06, 2013, 04:48:24 PM »
I have started posting the METOP2 IASI CH4 for April to June 2013  on a new website due to space constraints.

See: https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2ch4aprjun/

Donna

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #68 on: April 07, 2013, 04:48:22 AM »
It looks like the new site has different permissions - will you change them to be the same as the old site? 

Also,  at this time I'd like to thank you for all of your work on this. I've followed your posts for quite some time and deeply appreciate access to this information.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #69 on: April 07, 2013, 07:50:13 AM »
Hi Donna,

Thanks for letting me know that the permissions had somehow not taken. They are now changed.

Also, welcome to the Forum!

I'm pleased this information is helpful to you. More updates will come through next week.

A4R

Pmt111500

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #70 on: April 07, 2013, 10:06:16 AM »
Thanks A4R, for the methane images, it nice to follow the progress of spring on the ground level and the respective methane levels in the mid-troposphere. Temperatures here have been sawing between freezing nights and thawing days for the last week and the methane levels above seem to have gone up. No significant plant growth yet. Night/day variation has been c.15 degrees from -10 to +5C.

One minor request if I may... Could it be possible to change the color of the line of land to black, so it would be easier to see where the highest concentrations are amidst all that yellow methane...
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #71 on: April 07, 2013, 11:10:30 AM »
Pmt,

I have no control over the image at this point. Here is an example of the increases at this late date.

The attached is from April 4, 2013 pm at 586 mb.

More later, off to a conference.

A4R

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #72 on: April 07, 2013, 11:12:06 AM »
Oops!

Attached.

A4R

JimD

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #73 on: April 17, 2013, 07:54:57 PM »
This seems like a good place to put Hansen's latest on a Venus like runaway possibility.

Titled:  Exaggeration, Jumping the Gun, and the Venus Syndrome
dated April 15th

link to his web location below.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

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Anne

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #74 on: April 20, 2013, 12:22:25 AM »
« Last Edit: April 20, 2013, 12:49:02 PM by Anne »

Laurent

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #75 on: April 20, 2013, 11:09:29 AM »
Anne your link does not work for me, can you check that !?

Anne

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #76 on: April 20, 2013, 11:35:14 AM »
Bonjour, Laurent. Sorry it doesn't work. I can't see what's wrong. Try this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2311699/Could-Earth-barren-Venus-Climate-change-scientist-warns-planet-ice-free-human-free.html

It's a pretty depressing attempt to mock Hansen by twisting what he says.

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #77 on: April 21, 2013, 06:24:46 PM »
I have updated the METOP 2 IASI Ch4 images through April 19, 2013 pm for 586 mb and 718 or 742 mb. High concentrations continued through April 1-10 and now are beginning to fall some in the Northern Hemisphere in the last few days. I have not updated the Google Earth imagery yet.

Additionally, the CH4 concentrations over Antartica have begun to increase as "fall/winter" comes to the SH.

I will begin a new ASIF thread for the Antarctic. I had not anticipated having such high concentrations there.

The link for the April to June images is:

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2ch4aprjun/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #78 on: April 21, 2013, 06:27:23 PM »
I forgot I had already started the Antarctic thread. Here it is:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,73.0.html

Lewis C

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #79 on: May 05, 2013, 05:39:17 PM »
Can anyone provide an update on the work of Semiletov & Shakhova on the ESAS methyl clathrates observations ?

I hope I've missed the proper reporting of the 2011 joint Russian-American expedition, which was due to be published in May 2012 - but I saw nothing on it.

There was one guarded reference last autumn on a Russian site noting that still larger plumes had been seen that year, but nothing definitive by scientists from either country.

Given the stakes, this absence of news seems bizarre. Are we looking at proactive optimism bias (aka public information control), grossly deficient publishing routines, both, or something else ?

Regards,

Lewis

Artful Dodger

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #80 on: May 06, 2013, 12:56:14 PM »
Can anyone provide an update on the work of Semiletov & Shakhova on the ESAS methyl clathrates observations ?

Hi Lewis,

Google Scholar has it all under "Related Articles"
Cheers!
Lodger

Lewis C

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #81 on: May 06, 2013, 01:21:55 PM »
Artful - many thanks for the pointer. I found the 2011 paper below which I'd previously missed. It doesn't appear to have any authorship by the US scientists on the joint research trip, so if you happen across their take on the observations, could you post a link ?

Regards,

Lewis

Doklady Earth Sciences
September 2012, Volume 446, Issue 1, pp 1132-1137
The degradation of submarine permafrost and the destruction of hydrates on the shelf of east arctic seas as a potential cause of the “Methane Catastrophe”: some results of integrated studies in 2011

    V. I. Sergienko, L. I. Lobkovskii, I. P. Semiletov, O. V. Dudarev, et al

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #82 on: May 11, 2013, 04:16:26 PM »
I have updated the METOP 2 IASI CH4 through April 26 2013 pm. There was an anomaly on April 26, 2013 am that resulted in CH4 concentrations above 2400 ppbv at a number of layers. I have included 4 on the site. I'll update more later.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2ch4aprjun/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

AbruptSLR

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #83 on: May 15, 2013, 02:03:39 AM »
A4R,

As many times as I have looked at them, I still find it disturbing to see the relatively high methane concentrations over Antarctica that is even shown in your postings for April 26th.

ASLR
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #84 on: May 22, 2013, 04:45:09 PM »
I have added the METOP 2 IASI images to the website through May 20, 2013 0-12hrs. I am still adding Google Earth images for April and May through this week.

One thing to note is that the higher methane readings are now generally occurring in Euro-Asia in Siberia, or other areas experiencing snow melt or ice thawing.

One exception is areas in Asia where agricultural production is begining. The May 20, 2013 am 586 mb CH4 Arctic view is attached.

The site is:
https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2ch4aprjun/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

Shared Humanity

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #85 on: May 22, 2013, 06:31:24 PM »
Am I mistaken or are these higher methane readings well aligned with the negative snow anomalies in Siberia?

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #86 on: May 29, 2013, 07:21:09 PM »
There is a major improvement coming - tracking methane in 3D.

Pmt111500

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #87 on: May 30, 2013, 07:36:05 AM »
Am I mistaken or are these higher methane readings well aligned with the negative snow anomalies in Siberia?


I think it's the standard theory (though I can't provide links) that the methane is produced by the soil bacteria. These can be active at lower temperatures than plants and algae, which in turn use up some of it. So it's natural to have the highest concentrations of methane during the thaw, before the plants become active.  On the other hand, methane has been on the rise even during summers, so the previous is not the whole story, there's likely much more to it. Could ask a friend who's done work on taiga peatlands and natural N2O, he should at least know where to look for detailed studies ( A4R and AGWObserver have linked to some as well, but I haven't bookmarked).
« Last Edit: May 30, 2013, 08:10:33 AM by Pmt111500 »
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rw langford

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #88 on: June 14, 2013, 02:12:51 AM »
Here is a recent update from CARVE that is not good news.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/06/13/2138531/nasa-finds-amazing-levels-of-arctic-methane-and-co2-asks-is-a-sleeping-climate-giant-stirring-in-the-arctic/
The findings are frightening but not unexpected. Almost everything that I read on climate is happening faster than any model predicted.
Bob

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #89 on: June 14, 2013, 07:16:24 AM »
Hi Bob,

Thanks for your comment and link. There is a thread for CARVE in this section, perhaps Neven will move it there.

A4R

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #90 on: June 18, 2013, 04:59:50 AM »
Isn't Avaaz.org's new petition too alarmist? "30 months to save the world!"
The articles cited at the bottom include one from the Independent mentioning Semiletov's latest take on the ESAS methane plumes, but I don't see anything online from him this month.
------------------------------
Dear Avaaz community,

This may be the most important email I’ve written to you. Arctic scientists have found gigantic plumes of Methane gas spewing into our atmosphere through melting ice, accelerating the destruction of our planet -- it could be a climate tipping point and we CAN stop it, if we act very fast, and all together. We have 30 months until the biggest climate summit ever. To win it, we need to blast out of the starting gate. Click below to pledge a donation to help us get there: 

 
This may be the most important email I've ever written to you.

Scientists mapping hundreds small plumes of dangerous Methane gas coming from the arctic ocean have been shocked to find they've suddenly grown to gigantic KILOMETER-wide towers of gas spewing into our atmosphere! NASA has just confirmed alarming patterns of arctic methane, a gas 20 times as damaging to our climate as carbon dioxide.

Investigations continue, but this could be what the experts warned us about. As the earth warms, it creates many "tipping points" that could accelerate the warming out of control. Warming thaws the Arctic sea ice and permafrost, releasing millions of tons of Methane, which massively accelerates warming, which warms the Arctic more, and so on. We spin out of control. Already -- storms, temperatures -- everything is off the charts.

We CAN stop this, if we act very fast, and all together. And out of this extinction nightmare, we can pull one of the most inspiring futures for our children and grandchildren. A clean, green future in balance with the earth that gave birth to us.

We have 30 months until the Paris Summit, the meeting that world leaders have decided will determine the fate of our efforts to fight climate change. It might seem like a long time - it's not. We have 30 months to get the right leaders in power, get them to that meeting, give them a plan, and hold them accountable. And it's us vs. the oil companies, and fatalism. We can win, we must, but we need to blast out of the starting gate with with 50,000 pledges of support -- we'll only process the donations if we hit our goal. For the world we dream of, let's make it happen:

Fatalism on climate change is not just futile, it's also incompetent. The hour is late, but it is still absolutely within our power to stop this catastrophe, simply by shifting our economies from oil and coal to other sources of power. And doing so will bring the world together like never before, in a deep commitment and cooperation to protect our planetary home. It's a beautiful possibility, and the kind of future Avaaz was born to create.

Facing this challenge will take heart, and hope, and also all the smarts we have. Here's the plan:

1. Go Political -- Elect Climate Leaders  - 5 crucial countries have elections in the next 30 months. Let's make sure the right people win, and with the right mandate. Avaaz is one of the only major global advocacy organizations that can be political. Charities can't be political because of the kind of tax breaks they get from governments, but we can. And since this fight will be won or lost politically, it could be at some points just us vs. the oil companies to decide who our politicians listen to.

2. Make Hollande a Hero  -- French President Francois Hollande will chair the Paris summit - a powerful position. We have to try every tactic and channel -- his personal friends and family, his political constituency, his policy advisors -- to make him the hero we need him to be to make the summit a success.

3. Take it to the Next Level  -- The scale of this crisis demands action that goes beyond regular campaigning. It's time for powerful, direct, non-violent action, to capture imagination, convey moral urgency, and inspire people to act. Think Occupy.


4. Out the Spoilers -- Billionaires like the Koch brothers and their oil companies are the major spoilers in climate change - funding junk science to confuse us and spending millions on misleading PR, while buying politicians wholesale. With investigative journalism and more, we need to expose and counter their horrifically irresponsible actions.

5. Define the Deal  -- Even in the face of planetary catastrophe, 195 governments in a room can be just incompetent. We need to invest in top quality policy advice to develop ingenious strategies, mechanisms, and careful compromises so that when the summit arrives, a critical mass of leaders are already bought in to a large part of the deal, and no one can claim that good solutions don't exist.

We need 50,000 of us to pledge small donations to blast out of the starting gate on this plan. The amount doesn't matter as much as much as the choice - to hope, and to act:

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/30_months_h/?bBvxmab&v=25979

At the last major climate summit in Copenhagen 2009, we played a pivotal role in German and Japanese 'climate' elections, in shifting Brazilian policy, and in helping win a major global deal on financing, with rich countries promising $100 billion per year to poor countries to help them address climate change. Back then, Avaaz was 3 million people. After Copenhagen, we reflected that we needed to be a lot bigger to meet the challenge posed by climate change. Now, we're 22 million, and growing by 1 million per month.

Climate change is the ultimate global collective action problem, requiring cooperation from every government in the world. And Avaaz is the ultimate collective action solution, with millions of us united in common vision across every nation. This is our time, to build a world for our children that’s beauty matches our dreams. Let's get started.

With hope and appreciation for this amazing community,

Ricken and the entire Avaaz team


MORE INFORMATION:

Scientists Close in on the Cause of Arctic Methane Leaks (Climate Central)
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/scientists-close-in-on-the-cause-of-arctic-methane-leaks-15090

NASA warns Arctic thaw could have huge impact on global warming (The Verge)
http://www.theverge.com/2013/6/12/4422078/nasa-arctic-permafrosts-carbon-emissions

Five Reasons We Need a New Global Agreement on Climate Change by 2015 (Switchboard NRDC)
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/jschmidt/five_reasons_we_need_a_new_glo.html

The Doha climate talks were a start, but 2015 will be the moment of truth (The Guardian)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/10/doha-climate-talks-global-warming

Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats (The Independent)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

Note -- there is a debate in the scientific community about the scale and significance of the methane plumes, as there is about a number of alarming developments in climate science, and has been in the past about issues like the loss of arctic sea ice. As it has for decades, the scientific community as a whole is moving conservatively, slowly embracing a gradually more and more alarming consensus as evidence rules out other possibilities. But the vast majority agree, with many desperately trying to the get our societies to understand, that we are facing catastrophic threats unless we act.



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To contact Avaaz, please do not reply to this email. Instead, write to us at www.avaaz.org/en/contact or call us at +1-888-922-8229 (US).
« Last Edit: June 19, 2013, 04:21:09 AM by Lynn Shwadchuck »
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Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #91 on: June 18, 2013, 10:59:07 PM »
Hi Lynn,

This is an alarmist approach to create activism. While the concern remains in regard to CH4 release, (and it should, given what we have seen through the winter), this is using quite a bit of hyerbole and not much science.

The Semelitov comments are from the Laptev and East Siberian Sea survey in 2011. There was little reported from the 2012 survey (I have quite a bit of that on my website), and I need to post more.

Take a look at my web pages for the actual science data - and I will be updating it, once I finish a major project.

A4R

Anne

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #92 on: June 19, 2013, 12:48:50 AM »
Hi Lynn

I got that email from Avaaz too and had a similar reaction to yours. Also, I wondered who would actually be using the money to lobby: Avaaz or a climate lobby or lobbies they are fronting for. They aren't climate specialists after all. They are not at all clear about that.

You might want to edit your post to delete personal details: an email address in there.

Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #93 on: June 19, 2013, 04:25:24 AM »
Thanks Anne, oops!

A4R, I've been following Semiletov & Shakhova for years and I knew there wasn't anything new, unless I'd missed something.

I find it so discouraging that activists (I hate to even say 'environmentalists') are so fragmented and often extremely emotional to the detriment of simple facts.
I'm putting this site as my signature. I built it five years ago to make it easy for people to eat less meat. This is a major way individuals can make a difference.
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wili

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #94 on: June 21, 2013, 03:36:00 PM »
Shouldn't we be alarmed? Is there something wrong with activism?

I would have said, "30 years ago we maybe could have saved the earth, but we didn't."

I guess some people would have harsher words for this position than 'alarmist.'

In a house on fire, it is everyone's moral obligation to ring as many alarms as they possibly can. It seems to me that the term "alarmist" needs to become a badge of honor, while "non-alarmists" should be seen as dangerously complicit in the general conflagration that is now upon us.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Laurent

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #95 on: June 21, 2013, 06:18:29 PM »
I received a message from Avaaz (in French), it is not about methane but about arctic, it does begin like that :
This is perhaps the most important statement I've ever written email.

Scientific Julienne Stroeve observed Arctic sea ice since decades. Every summer, she went to the northern seas to measure the extent of melting. She knows that climate change is accelerating the melting ice, but she could not believe what she saw on his last trip. Vast expanses of ice disappeared, more than our worst expectations.


Though there is many reasons to be alarmist, I would be careful with avaaz and other alike. It is not to say that you should not sign (just sign) but there may be some over stories like they may collect email adresses for other purposes and at the end you dont really control what they do with the power of your signature, they may use it for their own political views (do you really know what do they think ?).
I do also receive some mails from a site called http://www.cyberacteurs.org/
it is in French but I foster you to find this type of activist. They do act more locally (France), they do not play with the emotions of people, there statements are clear, You know who exactly the letter is sent to, you can choose to add something and the politicians of your area are targeted !

wili

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #96 on: June 23, 2013, 09:41:55 AM »
Thanks for the insights, L.

I mostly work locally myself. I wasn't really commenting on Avaaz itself, as I know nothing about them.

But the term 'alarmist' is often thrown around as a pejoritive n these contexts as if there isn't anything to be alarmed about with the climate and the planet. I would think that here, at least, most of us see that what we are witnessing is very alarming indeed.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Lynn Shwadchuck

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #97 on: June 23, 2013, 09:14:21 PM »
What bothered me about the Avaaz message is that it takes one aspect of AGW – methane – from 2011 research and presents it as an immediate emergency – 30 months or else. I guess it's pretty much AMEG's message.

I don't know whether I believe there's any hope of using the ESAS methane plumes as a solo way to get political action. If it's presented as a clear and present danger and time goes by with 'only' the continuous extreme weather events we've been getting – so many people are glibly using the phrase, 'the new normal' – and there isn't a great leap in sea level in 30 months...

Anyway, Avaaz.org has accomplished some solid stuff with their petitions. I've been getting them since they started in 2007. But they've enabled members to start their own petitions. And I'm just not sure this one isn't too far over the top.

I wish more people would just educate themselves instead of requiring emotional talking points.
I'm putting this site as my signature. I built it five years ago to make it easy for people to eat less meat. This is a major way individuals can make a difference.
www.10in10diet.com

Apocalypse4Real

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #98 on: June 28, 2013, 08:38:24 PM »
I have updated my website that shows the comparisons of the AIRS/Giovanni methane concentrations at 359 hPA and Dr. Yurganov's CH4 concentrations at 600 mb.

NASA has discontinued the CH4 section of the Giovanni data as of Febraury 28, 2013. I posted what I had through March 20.

Dr. Yurganov's 600 mb imagery comparison has been updated through June 20, 2013.

The main CH4 page link is: https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2013/home

For the 600 mb methane, the link is:
https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realmethane2013/home/iasi-2012-vs-2011-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

I will be updating the IASI 2 methane imagery over the next few days. There is also a new methane imagery piece coming, more on that when it is ready.

wili

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Re: Arctic Methane Release
« Reply #99 on: June 28, 2013, 09:02:40 PM »
Thanks for your wonderful work, A4R. Any word on why NASA discontinued that CH4 section?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."