Please support this Forum and Neven's Blog

Author Topic: But, but, but India...  (Read 14863 times)

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2519
    • View Profile
But, but, but India...
« on: April 12, 2015, 05:34:05 PM »
We should not forget about India in the futur, let's track what they do or not...

Modi's Oxymoronic Stance on Climate Change
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chaitanya-kumar/modis-oxymoronic-stance-o_b_7045276.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green.

Yes, the world doesn't need to tell India what to do because of our unique cultural value to the environment and our minimal contribution to historic carbon emissions, but neither can India's Prime minister continue to dwell in rhetoric and falsely lead the public into thinking he is doing enough to protect them.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Governor
  • *****
  • Posts: 3598
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2015, 05:54:49 PM »
Great topic title!  :D
Il faut cultiver notre jardin

RaenorShine

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 244
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2015, 06:03:09 PM »
Great topic, saw this a couple of days ago, nothing like shooting the messenger!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/10/greenpeace-bank-accounts-frozen-by-indian-government

The Indian government has frozen bank accounts of Greenpeace after accusing the international environment campaign group of encouraging “anti-development” protests in the emerging economic power.

JimD

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2146
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2015, 06:21:45 PM »
My son at one point was a senior staffer for Greenpeace.  I clearly remember a conversation with one of our relatives back in Wyoming and their reaction to hearing about where he worked was...

"Isn't that a terrorist organization?"

True story.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2519
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2015, 12:29:54 PM »
 How India Welcomed Xiaomi’s Mi 4i
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015/04/24/how-india-welcomed-xiaomis-mi-4i/

Interesting to see how Indians (some) are craving to get a chinese product...
I have never heard of this company, I guess It will come in France very fast...

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2519
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2015, 11:30:03 AM »

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2015, 06:48:35 PM »
The linked Bloomberg article indicates that Modi will spur India fossil fuel power plants to spend $25 Billion to clean-up their aerosol emissions while continuing to allow CO2 emissions.  This will clearly serve to increase the near-term rate of global warming by reducing the negative forcing associated with the aerosols.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-04/world-s-worst-air-spurs-modi-s-25-billion-utility-clean-up-push

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2519
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2015, 07:56:54 PM »

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2015, 12:42:32 AM »
Extreme Heat Wave In India Is Killing People And Melting Roads
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/26/3662797/india-heat-wave-deaths/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2015, 10:19:51 PM »
India Just Upped Its Solar Target Five-Fold, Will Install More Solar This Year Than Germany
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/17/3670558/india-makes-huge-solar-commitment-100-gigawatts/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2015, 08:35:17 PM »
Farmers using their solar panels to sell electricity rather than pump more water.

Indian farmer harvests a climate-smart crop – sunshine
" 'Solar crops' are a very exciting example of a triple-win," Tushaar Shah, IWMI senior fellow, said in a statement. "Farmers, the state, and precious water reserves all benefit from a single intervention."

http://m.csmonitor.com/World/Making-a-difference/Change-Agent/2015/0708/Indian-farmer-harvests-a-climate-smart-crop-sunshine
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

anotheramethyst

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 137
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2015, 08:23:08 AM »
energy and agriculture can go really well together.  the vast farms and ranches of south texas used to pump a lot of oil (some still do, unfortunately).  those areas now house a large wind farm, spread across multie properties.  farmers and ranchers always have a landbase by definition, and they also have a need to diversify to protect against drought, crop failures, and wild fluctuations in market prices.  frankly i was shocked to see the windmills in such a traditionally conservative area, but it makes a lot of sense.  usually a mineral/ energy company builds and manages all the infrastructure and pays the landowners to use the land, usually only a few tiny parcels of a field.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2015, 04:12:28 PM »
The linked article about India's environmental minister calling for the developed nations to curb their per-capita GHG emissions to make room for India's economic development; shows that the primary issue that crippled the Kyoto Protocol (the developed – underdeveloped divide) is still in effect.

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060021726

Extract: "Americans and others in rich nations must alter their lifestyles if the world is to combat climate change, India's environment minister Prakash Javadekar said.
In an exclusive interview with ClimateWire, Javadekar yesterday called on wealthy countries to curb their per-capita greenhouse gas emissions and create room so that poorer nations like India can develop economically."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2015, 02:45:14 AM »
India: help us to deal with climate change.

India's environment minister said on Monday that the rich world could not wish away its responsibility for man-made global warming, as he urged developed nations to do more to help his country deal with the impact of climate change.

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN0QT0ZG20150824
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2015, 03:14:07 AM »
But, but....

India’s Unconventional Plan To Increase Solar Power
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/08/3699229/india-coal-plus-solar/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2015, 11:36:33 PM »
Indian Prime Minister Modi meets with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, discusses off grid power/wall [video]
...Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the company’s Fremont car plant does have some immediate ramifications. According to the Indian Foreign ministry, Musk gave the PM a tour of the plant and paid particular attention to the Tesla Powerwall which the CEO noted could, when used in conjunction with Solar, help India’s rural communities bypass the electric grid.

http://electrek.co/2015/09/28/indian-prime-minister-modi-meets-with-tesla-ceo-elon-musk-discusses-off-grid-powerwall-video/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2015, 12:01:49 AM »
Per the attached article, India is the only major country that has not yet made a pledge to CoP21 in Paris:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/despite-pledges-climate-action-seen-falling-short/2015/09/28/9b8fc030-6614-11e5-bdb6-6861f4521205_story.html
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2015, 06:59:40 PM »
The linked article (focused on India) discusses how the need to provide over 1.3 billion people worldwide with electricity means that fossil fuel consumption will continue to increase (to at least 2030) despite efforts to increase the use of renewables:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/indias-huge-need-for-electricity-is-a-problem-for-the-planet/2015/11/06/a9e004e6-622d-11e5-8475-781cc9851652_story.html?postshare=7811446984768218

Extract: "… the world’s hunger for cheap electricity is complicating efforts to combat climate change.

Of the world’s 1.3 billion people who live without access to power, a quarter — about 300 million — live in rural India in states…

… India’s leaders say that the huge challenge of extending electric service to its citizens means a hard reality — that the country must continue to increase its fossil fuel consumption, at least in the near term, on a path that could mean a threefold increase in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2030, according to some estimates."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2015, 06:37:24 PM »
I am personally concerned that just as the Kyoto Protocol did not effectively address the reality of China; that CoP21 will not effectively address the reality of India today.  In particular I do not believe that the developed world will adequately help India (nor Africa for that matter) bridge the divide separating it from a low carbon future with an acceptable lifestyle for its people (particularly in Northeastern India [adjacent to Bangladesh], see first attached image); which I believe could result in substantial sectarian (between Hindus and Muslims) armed violence during the next major collapse of the monsoon season (which tend to happen in weak to moderate El Nino years, not in Super El Nino years, as indicated by the second attached image. Further I note that 2016 could possibly experience a weak El Nino according to current NOAA forecasts):

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/business/economy/india-is-caught-in-a-climate-change-quandary.html?_r=0

Extract: "India is home to 30 percent of the world’s poorest, those living on less than $1.90 a day. Of the 1.3 billion Indians, 304 million do not have access to electricity; 92 million have no access to safe drinking water.
And India is going to be hammered by climate change.
The livelihoods of 600 million Indians are threatened by the expected disruption of the southwest monsoon from July to September, which accounts for 70 percent of India’s rainfall. India’s rivers depend on the health of thousands of Himalayan glaciers at risk of melting because of a warming climate, while 150 million people are at risk from storm surges associated with rising sea levels.

The United Nations expects India’s population to reach 1.5 billion by 2030, bigger than China’s. If over the next 15 years it follows anything like the fossil-fuel-heavy path out of poverty that China took over the last 15, it could blow any chance the world has of preventing a disaster.

Jairam Ramesh, who was minister of the environment under the previous prime minister, Manmohan Singh, argues that India must continue to grow at 7.5 to 8 percent a year for the next 15 years.
To power this growth, India’s electricity consumption — which accounts for over half its greenhouse gas emissions — would rise 6 to 7 percent a year. Even under the most ambitious goals for nuclear power and renewable energy, more than half of this power is expected to come from coal, the dirtiest fuel. “By 2030 India’s coal consumption could triple or quadruple,” Mr. Ramesh told me.
India has come up with a mitigation contribution plan for the Paris meeting. It aims to get 40 percent of its electricity from nonfossil fuels by 2030 and to reduce its emissions intensity by 33 to 35 percent from 2005 to 2030. It also offers to vastly increase its forest cover.
The plan, however, pointedly notes that India’s energy consumption amounts to only 0.6 metric tons of oil equivalent per person, about a third of the world average. It explains that “no country in the world” has ever achieved the development level of today’s advanced nations without consuming at least four tons."


See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India

Caption for the first attached image: "Poverty rate map of India by prevalence in 2012, among its states and union territories"


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-and-indian-monsoon%E2%80%A6-not-straightforward-you%E2%80%99d-think

Caption for the second attached image: "Comparison of the Oceanic Niño Index to Indian monsoon rainfall from 1950-2012. La Niña years are blue, neutral years are gray, and El Niño years are red. El Niño years tend to be drier than average, but the strongest El Niño of the century (1997-98) produced a monsoon season with above-average rainfall. Graph adapted from Kumar et al. 2006."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2015, 05:33:35 PM »
Per the linked Christian Science Monitor article, I am not the only one concerned about India's future impacts on GHG emissions and on climate change refuges:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy/2015/1111/Can-India-make-or-break-climate-change

Extract: "On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook, which warned that "Meeting India’s energy needs requires a huge commitment of capital and constant vigilance as to the implications for energy security and the environment."
For the time being, India's emissions per person are just 1.7 metric tons a year, while China's measure 6.7 and the United States, a whopping 17. "
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2015, 04:54:04 PM »
Further to my Reply #18, per the linked article Richard Tol agrees that a climate change induced Hindu-Muslim conflict in the Indian Sub-continent is plausible in the future:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/in-conversation-roger-harrabin-and-richard-tol

Extract: "Under current conditions that would mean evacuating 30, 40, 50 million Bangladeshis, in the future perhaps a bit more because of population growth. Where would they go? If you look at the current political situation in Bangladesh there’s actually a low-level civil war going on. You would essentially force the Bengali out from the flats into the hills where there’s people who do not really like the Bengalis so that conflict would probably intensify. A whole lot of them would actually move into Myanmar, move into India where they’re also not very keen on Bangladeshis. That may lead to civil conflict there, at which point the Pakistanis – and it would probably be escalating to ‘Hindu versus Muslim’ type of conflict – at which point the Pakistanis may decide to come to the rescue of their Muslim brethren. And because of sea level rise, you’re talking about nuclear war on the Indian subcontinent. That’s a scenario that you cannot say is impossible. You cannot say that this sequence of events will not happen. You can actually make it sound plausible, even."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

sidd

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1197
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2015, 10:29:15 PM »
Unfortunately, I read the interview with Tol. I had evidence that he was an unsound economist after his  misanalysis and subsequent attempted defense of positive net economic effects from carbon fertilization. Now I find that he is woefully ignorant of the geology, hydrology, history and politics of both Bangladesh and the subcontinent. Takes a kind of  polymath to be simultaneously wrong in multiple disciplines and on multiple levels.

The reality is that the New Yorker will adapt with ten billion dollar seawalls, and the Bangladeshi will adapt by drowning. If he does not know that he is a fool, if he does, an apologist for class based genocide. He then proceeds to prove that he is the latter:   
 
"Tol: We just established that climate change is primarily a problem of the poor, right? I am not poor and I’ll make sure that my children aren’t poor either."

I sorta wish I hadn't read that. The man has a dead soul, not something i want to feel about anybody.

sidd

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2015, 10:49:55 PM »
Unfortunately, I read the interview with Tol. I had evidence that he was an unsound economist after his  misanalysis and subsequent attempted defense of positive net economic effects from carbon fertilization. Now I find that he is woefully ignorant of the geology, hydrology, history and politics of both Bangladesh and the subcontinent. Takes a kind of  polymath to be simultaneously wrong in multiple disciplines and on multiple levels.

The reality is that the New Yorker will adapt with ten billion dollar seawalls, and the Bangladeshi will adapt by drowning. If he does not know that he is a fool, if he does, an apologist for class based genocide. He then proceeds to prove that he is the latter:   
 
"Tol: We just established that climate change is primarily a problem of the poor, right? I am not poor and I’ll make sure that my children aren’t poor either."

I sorta wish I hadn't read that. The man has a dead soul, not something i want to feel about anybody.

sidd

I concur that Tol is a broken clock; nevertheless, even a broken clock is right twice a day; and I do believe that Bangladesh will produce millions of climate refuges sooner, or later.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

sidd

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1197
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2015, 06:49:16 AM »
I entirely agree that Bangladesh will be one of the larger sources of climate refugees (you dropped the last "e" in "refugees," I would that it were so ...)

But quoting Tol in support of anything removes credibility, rather than lends it. Especially the specious argument that Pakistan would come to the support of Bangladesh in a putative war with India triggering nuclear doom. The briefest history of the 1971 conflict might have educated him before he chose to speak, but educating Tol is a thankless task given his reaction to previous attempts.

Another incredibly bad comparison in the interview was the one between the Netherlands and Bangladesh.  A reclamation and flood protection project over centuries, in an economically fortunate colonial state held as an example for one to be built by an impoverished colonial residue of six times the threatened area, ten times threatened population and twelvefold river flow influx to be constructed on decadal scale on alluvium several thousand feet deep is not even wrong.

Discussing Tol's deficiencies would be a full time occupation, I already regret the time i spent reading the interview and responding. But I owed you an explanation for my intemperance, which I have attempted, but I would rather not discuss Tol or his work any further.

The drowning of Bangladesh has already begun, you may read of unfortunate displacees already held as slaves on fishing fleets in SE Asia, or relegated to camps. But, and let me make a prediction, there will be no war. There will be death on a scale rivaling the Great Bengal Famines, and migrations dwarfing Partition, but no war, at least in that benighted land, or what will be left of it.  Of course, as always, I might be wrong.

Explaining my reasoning here would take us very far afield indeed for a climate forum, we can perhaps discuss in email.

sidd

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #24 on: November 19, 2015, 07:21:13 PM »
I entirely agree that Bangladesh will be one of the larger sources of climate refugees (you dropped the last "e" in "refugees," I would that it were so ...)

But quoting Tol in support of anything removes credibility, rather than lends it. Especially the specious argument that Pakistan would come to the support of Bangladesh in a putative war with India triggering nuclear doom. The briefest history of the 1971 conflict might have educated him before he chose to speak, but educating Tol is a thankless task given his reaction to previous attempts.

Another incredibly bad comparison in the interview was the one between the Netherlands and Bangladesh.  A reclamation and flood protection project over centuries, in an economically fortunate colonial state held as an example for one to be built by an impoverished colonial residue of six times the threatened area, ten times threatened population and twelvefold river flow influx to be constructed on decadal scale on alluvium several thousand feet deep is not even wrong.

Discussing Tol's deficiencies would be a full time occupation, I already regret the time i spent reading the interview and responding. But I owed you an explanation for my intemperance, which I have attempted, but I would rather not discuss Tol or his work any further.

The drowning of Bangladesh has already begun, you may read of unfortunate displacees already held as slaves on fishing fleets in SE Asia, or relegated to camps. But, and let me make a prediction, there will be no war. There will be death on a scale rivaling the Great Bengal Famines, and migrations dwarfing Partition, but no war, at least in that benighted land, or what will be left of it.  Of course, as always, I might be wrong.

Explaining my reasoning here would take us very far afield indeed for a climate forum, we can perhaps discuss in email.

sidd

sidd,

All very good points (I admit it was a poor idea on my part to quote Tol); however, I am still concerned that some form of serious armed (not necessarily nuclear) conflict could occur in India as a result of climate refugee's, whether they are from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Myanmar, Bhutan, or Pakistan.  Although, I admit that my concerns may prove unfounded in the next two to five years (again I am concerned about a collapse of the local monsoon in that timeframe, and my concern that modern people will not die [as they did in Great Bengal Famine] without a fight).

Best,
ASLR
« Last Edit: November 19, 2015, 08:01:34 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2015, 02:51:28 PM »
Solar Prices Could Be 10% Less Than Coal In India By 2020
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/11/17/solar-prices-10-less-coal-india-2020/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #26 on: November 26, 2015, 05:05:28 PM »
Those who do not think that the Northwestern part of the Indian subcontinent is not a growing powder keg for climate refugees should read the linked articles; which shows that these climate refugees are already accumulating in Bangladesh:

http://www.ipsnews.net/2015/11/climate-refugees-and-a-collapsing-city/

Extract: "With multiplying impacts of climate change – increasing floods, cyclones, and drought – thousands of climate refugees are migrating to Dhaka. And the city, well beyond its carrying capacity, is bursting at the seams.


The word most often associated with Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is perhaps, “overpopulated.” Supporting more than 14 million people on less than 325 square kilometers (125 square miles) of land, the city’s drainage, waste management and transportation infrastructure is on the brink of collapse.

Against that backdrop, it is hardly surprising to find the Bangladesh capital among the worst cities to live in on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2015 ranking."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #27 on: December 02, 2015, 05:05:31 PM »
The attached plot from The Guardian indicates that there is relatively little difference between the current and the post-INDC projections for India's CO2 emissions through 2030:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #28 on: December 07, 2015, 10:17:35 AM »
Per the linked Reuters article, India is currently investing in more coal, so that by 2040 their CO₂ emissions are projected to double:

http://in.reuters.com/article/climatechange-summit-india-idINKBN0TP01520151206

Extract: "… India is opening a coal mine a month and is set to double output by 2020, putting it at the forefront of a pan-Asian dash to burn more of the most polluting fossil fuel, which also happens to its most affordable and abundant.
This means that, although it is promoting solar power and other renewables, India's overall emissions will soar.
Ajay Mathur, Director General of the Bureau of Energy Efficiency and a senior member of the Indian delegation in Paris, said India's greenhouse gas emissions may grow until 2050, unless new technologies are developed.
"Projections ... that go out until 2050 are still showing an increase," he said.
While China has pledged that its emissions will peak no later than 2030, India's national plan promises only to slow the rise relative to its economic growth by then.
India's carbon dioxide emissions grew by almost 8 percent last year, according to the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, making it the biggest contributor to global emissions growth of 0.5 percent.
By 2040, they could roughly double, according to projections by U.S. scientists at Climate Interactive, overtaking the United States."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #29 on: December 29, 2015, 06:31:25 PM »
The linked article explains Indian Maoist guerrilla's long-term goals of a people's war in India, and that both women and children are swelling the Maoist ranks.  With continuing climate stress in this part of the world it seems likely that climate refugees will also swell the Maoist ranks:

http://www.idsa.in/book/UnderstandingIndiasMaoists
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/ChildreninIndianMaoistRanks_pvramana_060814
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/women-in-maoist-ranks_pvramana_151215

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #30 on: January 04, 2016, 04:40:31 AM »
Electrifying India, With the Sun and Small Loans
Selco systems typically include a small panel connected to a battery that stores enough power to run one or more lights, phone chargers and, with higher wattage options, some small appliances. Since its inception in 1995, Selco India has sold 318,400 solar home systems, and has provided power systems to almost 10,000 schools, hospitals and other institutions, almost all in Karnataka.
...
The sales presentation, once it includes assurance of financing from a bank, is much more palatable to potential customers: Pay the bank monthly installments of roughly the same price you’d spend on kerosene, and in a few short years, you’ll own the system and your basic energy needs will be fulfilled by the sun free.

“When we say free, their ears prick up,” Mr. Prasad said.
...
For many of Selco’s customers, financing the solar home system is their first interaction with a bank. The experience is often new for the bankers, too.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/business/energy-environment/electrifying-india-with-the-sun-and-small-loans.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #31 on: January 09, 2016, 02:59:56 PM »
India/Modi is planning to tap private investors to double its coal production by 2020 when the Paris Pact kicks-in:

http://in.reuters.com/article/india-coal-idINKBN0UM1K520160108

Extract: "India is getting ready to open up commercial coal mining to private companies for the first time in four decades, with the aim of shifting the world's third-biggest coal importer towards energy self-sufficiency.

Anil Swarup, the country's top coal bureaucrat, told Reuters on Friday the government has identified mines it plans to auction, and is now finalising other terms such as eligibility criteria for companies to take part and whether and how to set up revenue sharing.

He said a plan should be ready in the 2-3 months, setting a clear timeline on a plan that has previously only been vaguely marked out.

India has an ambitious plan to double its coal production to 1.5 billion tonnes a year by 2020, as part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's push to bring power to 300 million people who live without electricity, and give a boost to manufacturing."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

sidd

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1197
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #32 on: January 09, 2016, 09:48:10 PM »
Private investors in indian coal projects ? One look at the financial positions of Tata Power, Adnani and GVK would have disabused Modi and Swarup. Perhaps they did look, and perhaps this is an illustration of the blindness of power. Zizek has pointed out one of Rumsfeld's more egregious fallacies, in that he failed to include the fourth region of a quadrature, and possibly the more dangerious, that of the "unknown knowns." These are truths that one knows, but _fails to see_

I particularly like this plaintive screed from GVK:

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-21/news/64683014_1_alpha-west-coal-projects-gvk-coal-developers-hancock-coal-pty

"GVK Coal is currently under development phase and is making losses and its current liabilities exceed current assets by $885 million (Rs 5,539 crore) based on unaudited financial statements for the year ended June 30, 2014, ..."

"Management believes that GVK Coal would be able to establish profitable operations, meet its obligations, and its current liabilities being in excess of current assets is temporary situation and will not impact ability of the company to continue in operation in foreseeable future and accordingly will not have any material adverse impact upon operations and cash flows of the company, the company hoped."

"GVK coal is also in discussion with non-controlling shareholders realign the option exercise dates and additional funding from potential investors," the report said."

Good luck with that.

And here is a message from Tata Power, after the huge Mundra plant debacle:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/it-s-an-unfair-almost-subprime-like-situation-anil-sardan-112061500084_1.html

"The right message is to control losses."

That guy is learning. Pity it took a few billion for his education so far.

But Modi and Swarup are not self-delusional, or at any rate, not as much as Rumsfeld. I suspect they know none of these plans will ever come to fruition, and more important, they are not intended to. They know that none of the coal companies are in a position to take on more projects. Rather, they are "improving" their position hoping for climate blackmail: pay us or we burn a lot of coal. This is a deeply cynical and morally bankrupt ploy, whose only saving grace is that the threat is not credible ...

sidd

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #33 on: January 10, 2016, 02:08:01 PM »
...
But Modi and Swarup are not self-delusional, or at any rate, not as much as Rumsfeld. I suspect they know none of these plans will ever come to fruition, and more important, they are not intended to. They know that none of the coal companies are in a position to take on more projects. Rather, they are "improving" their position hoping for climate blackmail: pay us or we burn a lot of coal. This is a deeply cynical and morally bankrupt ploy, whose only saving grace is that the threat is not credible ...

sidd


That's an interesting take on the situation.  And I see others have doubt about India's grand coal goals, as well:

It's imperative that India opens up the sector so that private companies can bring in new technologies and the efficiencies that we keep talking about," said Dipesh Dipu at energy-focused Jenissi Management Consultants. "But I don't think private companies will be able to produce more than 100 million tonnes this decade as the process has yet to start."

The move is likely to attract coal block bids from Indian conglomerates such as the Adani Group and GVK, but the government may find it harder to lure big multinational miners such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Peabody Energy. Rio Tinto did not respond to requests for comment.

Coal prices are at multi-year lows amid global oversupply, and foreign companies have faced obstacles to investing in India, such as problems in getting land and environmental approvals.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/developed-countries-turn-coal-india-fires-production-n493156
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sesyf

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 20
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #34 on: January 10, 2016, 09:34:59 PM »
Inveeetment environment in India could look a bit difficult from foreign viewpoint; a few years ago India tax officials required Nokia (the ex phone maker, you know...) to pay additional taxes although there was an agreement between Finland and India that India should not demand anything in this context. Don't know the details, but I think that the relevant factories in India remained with Nokia and were not transferred to Microsoft when the whole phone business was sold to MS.

So perhaps there is some wariness in some corners of big businesses - they might suspect that the business environment in India is  not stable enough...

Seppo

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #35 on: January 11, 2016, 05:18:50 PM »
...
But Modi and Swarup are not self-delusional, or at any rate, not as much as Rumsfeld. I suspect they know none of these plans will ever come to fruition, and more important, they are not intended to. They know that none of the coal companies are in a position to take on more projects. Rather, they are "improving" their position hoping for climate blackmail: pay us or we burn a lot of coal. This is a deeply cynical and morally bankrupt ploy, whose only saving grace is that the threat is not credible ...

sidd


That's an interesting take on the situation.  And I see others have doubt about India's grand coal goals, as well:

It's imperative that India opens up the sector so that private companies can bring in new technologies and the efficiencies that we keep talking about," said Dipesh Dipu at energy-focused Jenissi Management Consultants. "But I don't think private companies will be able to produce more than 100 million tonnes this decade as the process has yet to start."

The move is likely to attract coal block bids from Indian conglomerates such as the Adani Group and GVK, but the government may find it harder to lure big multinational miners such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Peabody Energy. Rio Tinto did not respond to requests for comment.

Coal prices are at multi-year lows amid global oversupply, and foreign companies have faced obstacles to investing in India, such as problems in getting land and environmental approvals.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/developed-countries-turn-coal-india-fires-production-n493156



Per the linked article an the Aussie Nathan Tinkler thinks that the coal export industry in Australia is far from doomed, and he is gearing up to increase exports to South (India) and Southeast Asia:

http://www.afr.com/leadership/nathan-tinkler-the-coal-industry-is-far-from-doomed-20160110-gm30lm


Extract: ""I think the coal industry is far from doomed."

Regain crown

Tinkler is betting on forecasts that Asian markets, including India, will still need coal well into the future, despite the global move toward natural gas, wind and solar power.

Australia is forecast to overtake Indonesia and regain its position as the world's largest coal exporter, according to the International Energy Agency.


Its shipments of power station coal are expected to grow 4.5 per cent a year through 2020 as cost cuts help the sector, the IEA said.

India, Malaysia and Vietnam will probably drive demand for Australian coal as China's consumption slows, said Matthew Boyle, a Sydney-based industry consultant at CRU Group who estimates the South Pacific nation's thermal coal exports will grow about 1.5 per cent a year through 2020."



“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #36 on: January 12, 2016, 02:40:36 PM »
India's existing power grid has daily outages, so intermittent renewables may not be as big a deal there as you may think....   ;)

Here comes the sun: Indian consumers go solar as costs plunge
Although it still faces issues, solar power is competitive with newly-built thermal, hydro and nuclear power plants.

The price of solar energy has fallen by half over two years, with prices dropping from Rs 10-12 per unit to Rs 4.63 per unit in 2015, the price at which Sun Edison, a US company, offered to supply electricity in Andhra Pradesh recently, closely followed by another project.

At these levels, solar power is competitive with newly-built thermal, hydro and nuclear power plants, although it still faces issues of being available mainly when the sun shines. Nevertheless, these rates are encouraging a growing number of consumers to bypass India’s creaky electricity grid and directly go solar.

These prices will also boost Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious solar-energy plans. Of a target of 175 giga watt or 175,000 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, solar power will account for 100 GW, as Factchecker.in reported. India currently has 5,000 MW of solar power installations; so the government’s target is a 20-fold jump over the next seven years.

http://scroll.in/article/801507/costs-plunge-consumers-go-solar-bypass-grid
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1857
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #37 on: January 12, 2016, 03:09:37 PM »
Rapidly growing economies are always better able to take advantage of new technologies as they do not have the huge investments in older technologies. This is why China has a far superior communications system than the U.S. They built the industry from scratch. Developed countries should help third world nations rapidly expand wind and solar. The irony is this will leave these countries in a far better position as the U.S. and others deal with their massive investment in coal generated electricity.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #38 on: January 14, 2016, 08:11:30 PM »
The linked Reuters article indicates that while India's economy has its share of problems, its economy is expected to grow at more than 7% next year, thus picking-up the slack from the slowing Chinese economy.  This indicates that the global economy will most likely continue to impose relatively high rates of radiative forcing on the Earth for some years to come:


http://in.reuters.com/article/india-economy-growth-poll-rbi-rate-idINKCN0US0MU20160114

Extract: ""India continues to experience moderate inflation and only a gradual uptick in economic activity," wrote Siddhartha Sanyal at Barclays, one of the two analysts calling for a more than 25 basis point cut in the RBI's repo rate, currently 6.75 percent.
Still, this is a better outlook than for some fellow emerging market economies, like China, where growth forecasts have been reduced modestly but financial market turmoil since the start of the year suggests greater problems.
India is likely to comfortably maintain a faster growth rate than China over the next few years. The most pessimistic forecast for growth next year in India matches the most optimistic figure for China - 7 percent.
India's economy is expected to expand 7.5 percent in 2015/16 and at a slightly faster 7.8 percent in 2016/17, the same as forecast in a poll three months ago."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #39 on: January 30, 2016, 08:27:49 PM »
India Coal Plant Developer Switches to Solar for Site in Punja
A prominent developer of coal-fired power plants in India is seeking to switch to solar for an 800-acre (324-hectare) site in Punjab it had earmarked for another thermal plant, saying the economics of photovoltaics are more attractive.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/india-coal-plant-developer-switches-to-solar-for-site-in-punjab
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #40 on: February 04, 2016, 08:50:33 AM »
The linked Aljazeera article discusses the malaria crisis in India that the government does not want to acknowledge.  Malaria is carried by mosquitoes that are likely beginning promoted by climate change (in much the same manner as the Zika virus):

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/1/11/malaria-crisis-india-doesnt-want-to-acknowledge.html

Extract: "The Indian government has spent billions of dollars — about $500 million from 2000 to 2013 — in its fight against malaria, a mosquito-borne disease. International agencies such as the World Bank and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, a big funder of global public health efforts, have provided major support. The country’s revamped national malaria program is on par with the standard of global care. But its recordkeeping has few admirers. Last year the government recorded only 561 deaths due to malaria, while an independent estimate earlier in the decade shows that the real toll could be as high as 200,000 each year. The disease is especially prevalent among the poor and in India’s vast rural areas, where about two-thirds of the population lives but is served by just 20 percent of the country’s health care infrastructure."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #41 on: February 04, 2016, 09:12:34 AM »
The linked Al Jazeera article discusses how climate change has altered India's monsoons & the associated consequences.  I note that some of the worse collapses of India's monsoons have occurred in weak to moderate (i.e. ONI 0.5 to 1.0) El Nino years (see my Reply #18 in this thread), as the attached NOAA plot is projecting for the second half of 2016.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/01/india-monsoons-change-rain-160124090758074.html

Extract: "Climate change has altered India's monsoons and, consequently, affected its land, species and people."

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #42 on: February 22, 2016, 02:47:06 AM »
The linked article indicates that if the West assists with financing then India could help dramatically in the fight against climate change; however, if the West continues playing politics, then India's contribution could well tip in the other direction:

http://www.psmag.com/nature-and-technology/indias-next-decade-could-decide-the-future-of-our-climate

Extract: "India faces many challenges in climate change policy. It has more than twice as many vehicles today as in 2005. As wealth expands, those numbers will balloon further. Deforestation—much of it linked to coal extraction—has the potential to undermine the country’s gains in renewable energy. The list goes on.

But in so many ways, India is moving in the right direction. It just needs a financial nudge. Will the world give one, or is India simply too useful as a scapegoat?"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #43 on: February 22, 2016, 07:17:17 PM »
The linked (open access) reference provides observational records showing that climate change is accelerating a trend for Indian monsoon related droughts.  This combined with the risk of ENSO related Indian monsoon droughts, indicates the potential for future unrest in the Indian sub-continent (I note also the India is the world's largest arms importer which may be partially related policy approach to climate change induced instability):

Ganeshchandra Mallya, Vimal Mishra, Dev Niyogi, Shivam Tripathi & Rao S. Govindaraju (6 February 2016), "Trends and variability of droughts over the Indian monsoon region", Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.002

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300578

Abstract: "Drought characteristics for the Indian monsoon region are analyzed using two different datasets and standard precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Gaussian mixture model-based drought index (GMM-DI), and hidden Markov model-based drought index (HMM-DI) for the period 1901–2004. Drought trends and variability were analyzed for three epochs: 1901–1935, 1936–1971 and 1972–2004. Irrespective of the dataset and methodology used, the results indicate an increasing trend in drought severity and frequency during the recent decades (1972–2004). Droughts are becoming more regional and are showing a general shift to the agriculturally important coastal south-India, central Maharashtra, and Indo-Gangetic plains indicating higher food security and socioeconomic vulnerability in the region."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #44 on: February 24, 2016, 06:50:57 PM »
The linked "The Next Great Famine" by Amy Davidson, notes that great famines can occur relatively abruptly and singles out the possibility of a sustained failure of the South Asian (Indian) monsoon.  I have previously noted that the interaction of global warming with ENSO variations could result in a failure of the South Asian monsoon (mixed with intermittent floods)  much sooner than indicated by the article:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/11/the-next-great-famine

Extract: "A particularly alarming prospect is the sustained failure of the South Asian monsoon. The food supply for more than a billion people relies on the rains of the monsoon season. Models suggest that, in the next century, monsoons will become more and more erratic and extreme. A failed monsoon can mean that the rain hasn’t come, or that it has come in the wrong place for the wrong amount of time. In recent years, India has experienced droughts but also floods, like the one that wreaked havoc in Chennai in December. Last year, in a report on possible monsoon failures, The Economist noted that “immense cloudbursts in Uttarakhand killed over 6,000 people in 2013.” And India’s polluted, particle-heavy air can make the rain fall harder."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #45 on: February 25, 2016, 03:49:25 PM »
The WTO swats down India’s massive solar initiative:

http://grist.org/climate-energy/wto-swats-down-indias-massive-solar-initiative/

Extract: "The World Trade Organization delivered a blow to India’s ambitious solar power program on Wednesday at the behest of the United States. So much for all that nice chatter about international climate cooperation back in December.

Responding to a U.S. complaint, a WTO dispute panel ruled that several provisions of India’s National Solar Mission were “inconsistent” with international trade norms. The point of contention? India’s solar plan, which seeks to install 100 gigawatts of solar capacity by 2022, requires a certain percentage of cells and panels to be manufactured locally."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #46 on: March 12, 2016, 09:05:44 PM »
Protest in India against planned coal power plant.

‘Long march to save Sundarbans' begins
Demonstrators have begun a four-day-long “long march” from Dhaka to Khulna in protest against the Rampal power plant, which they believe is a threat to the world’s largest mangrove forest the Sundarbans.

Environmentalists, cultural and political activists, and eminent individuals kick-started the march that began from Jatiya Press Club this morning in a bid to press the government to abandon the Rampal power plant.

The government, until now, is bent on establishing the India-Bangladesh joint venture 1,320MW coal-fired power plant 14 kilometres upstream of the Sundarbans Reserve Forest, a world heritage site declared by UNESCO.
...
“It is a project of mass destruction,” said Prof Anu Muhammad, member secretary of National Committee to Protect Oil, Gas, Mineral Resources, Power and Ports at the launch of the “long march” from Dhaka.

He slammed the government for “dubious approach” to climate change – claiming recognition for contribution to environment while “trying to destroy the Sundarbans” all the same.

http://www.thedailystar.net/country/‘long-march’-save-sundarbans-begins-789157
« Last Edit: March 12, 2016, 09:23:29 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 7710
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #47 on: March 12, 2016, 09:20:11 PM »
More on the WTO Ruling (see #45):

Solar mission: India to appeal against WTO ruling
India's solar manufacturers still largely assemble products with the basic material - such as polysilicon chips - purchased mostly from China. As a result, Indian solar cells and modules end up becoming 8-10% costlier than those from China, Malaysia or Taiwan - from where most solar developers in India source their modules - and are often technologically inferior. Even though the US had complained against India to the WTO, solar imports from the US are fairly low.

"It is a blow for domestic solar manufacturers because the DCR was a safety net for them," said Vinay Rustagi, managing director of Bridge to India, a consultancy firm. "But DCR could never have been a long-term, sustainable policy. Many fundamental reforms are needed to make local industry competitive in the long run."

Sunil Rathi, director of sales and marketing at Waree Energies insisted that the local industry was quite capable of competing. "Developers are changing their attitude to Indian modules," he said. "Our prices too are falling. We are becoming competitive. But to make 'Make in India' a success, local manufacturers need to be encouraged in a bigger way."

"The root cause of our problems is the dumping of solar cells and modules by China," said Sharma of ISMA. Either anti-dumping duty should be imposed or DCR should be continued. If neither of these is done, local industry will be seriously damaged. And heavy dependence on imports is highly risky for solar developers too because of the currency fluctuations. Low-cost imports are only a short-term benefit."

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/solar-mission-india-to-appeal-against-wto-ruling/articleshow/51147890.cms
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 11504
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #48 on: March 29, 2016, 04:48:24 PM »
The linked article indicates that the water supply from the Ganges River is becoming less reliable due to a combination of climate change induced reductions in monsoon rains, and reduced meltwater from the Himalayas:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-35888535

Extract: "Monsoon rains have been scanty in India for the second year in succession. The melting of snow in the Himalayas - the mountain holds the world's largest body of ice outside the polar caps and contributes up to 15% of the river flow - has been delayed this year, says SK Haldar, general manager of the barrage. "There are fluctuations like this every year," he says."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Bob Wallace

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1500
    • View Profile
Re: But, but, but India...
« Reply #49 on: March 29, 2016, 08:50:21 PM »
India has recognized the problems they will face with climate change and has been building a number of dams to store water.  California may have to do the same as the annual snowpack lessens and takes away a natural water storage system.