Larsen "B" will be gone in a decade: NASA

[Vergent]

A new NASA study finds the last remaining section of Antarctica's Larsen B Ice Shelf, which partially collapsed in 2002, is quickly weakening and likely to disintegrate completely before the end of the decade.

A team led by Ala Khazendar of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, found the remnant of the Larsen B Ice Shelf is flowing faster, becoming increasingly fragmented and developing large cracks. Two of its tributary glaciers also are flowing faster and thinning rapidly.

"These are warning signs that the remnant is disintegrating," Khazendar said. "Although it’s fascinating scientifically to have a front-row seat to watch the ice shelf becoming unstable and breaking up, it’s bad news for our planet. This ice shelf has existed for at least 10,000 years, and soon it will be gone."

http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-study-shows-antarctica-s-larsen-b-ice-shelf-nearing-its-final-act

[nukefix]

S-1 12.5.2015, the remnant is clearly in bad shape with multiple visible cracks

[oren]

Apologies for nitpicking, but according to the NASA article Larsen B is expected to be gone not in a decade, but before the end of the decade, which actually means in half a decade from now...

[nukefix]

I remember looking at SAR-images of the remnant about 5 years ago and don't remember seeing such cracks..

[nukefix]

I had some time to play-around, here's a S-1 multitemporal RGB (18.4/30.4/12.5)

[mspelto]

In this case it is not just the cracks, but those circular depression indicates points of collapse where the thickness is just not sufficient to support the ice shelf.

[solartim27]

Looks like the collapse is speeding up.  Here is a gif from 2014, 2015, and now.

https://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=4269
(Good podcast on linked page)

[logicmanPatrick]

oren:
Apologies for nitpicking, but according to the NASA article Larsen B is expected to be gone not in a decade, but before the end of the decade, which actually means in half a decade from now...

Ah yes!  The surprise test paradox.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemic-paradoxes/#SurTesPar

Personally, I give it 3 years max before that chunk calves.

[Susan Anderson]

Interesting history and discussion at Earth Observatory (it's a great site, this is dated 7 February though the image title implies it might be 2016):
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=89588&src=eoa-iotd

[Stephan]

I wonder what happened to Larsen B (the main body that had collapsed in 2002) now. It was fed by different smaller glaciers which all sped up by a factor of 3, 5 or even 8 times after the collapse. So it has to be assumed that much more ice has been brought down to sea level.
Is the actual ice cliff still near the position after Larsen B had collapsed or has it partly re-grown? And if it has not re-grown even a little bit why is it so? Is it a question of basal melting from the Weddell Sea or is it a question of marine ice cliff instability?

I would like to know if anyone of you has an idea...