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Author Topic: Anthropogenic Existential Risk  (Read 13203 times)

Ninebelowzero

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #50 on: November 21, 2016, 05:19:43 PM »
"Let them eat cake."   :o


How about a double Carrington with fries?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVQ0J0sTrTM

Shared Humanity

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #52 on: January 05, 2017, 08:24:59 PM »
Pleasant dreams:

The first linked article is entitled: "Thinking About A U.S.-China War".
 
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/thinking-about-a-us-china-war_us_586d1b2fe4b014e7c72ee536

&

The second linked article is entitled: "2.5 billion people, nukes and missiles. What could go wrong?"

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/04/asia/china-india-icbm/

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #53 on: January 26, 2017, 04:47:01 PM »
The linked article is entitled: "It is now two and a half minutes to midnight", this is not good news.

http://thebulletin.org/press-release/it-now-two-and-half-minutes-midnight10432

Extract: "In the statement about the Doomsday Clock, the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board notes: “Over the course of 2016, the global security landscape darkened as the international community failed to come effectively to grips with humanity’s most pressing existential threats, nuclear weapons and climate change … This already-threatening world situation was the backdrop for a rise in strident nationalism worldwide in 2016, including in a US presidential campaign during which the eventual victor, Donald Trump, made disturbing comments about the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons and expressed disbelief in the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change …The board’s decision to move the clock less than a full minute — something it has never before done — reflects a simple reality: As this statement is issued, Donald Trump has been the US president only a matter of days …”

The statement continues: “Just the same, words matter, and President Trump has had plenty to say over the last year. Both his statements and his actions as President-elect have broken with historical precedent in unsettling ways. He has made ill-considered comments about expanding the US nuclear arsenal. He has shown a troubling propensity to discount or outright reject expert advice related to international security, including the conclusions of intelligence experts. And his nominees to head the Energy Department, and the Environmental Protection Agency dispute the basics of climate science. In short, even though he has just now taken office, the president’s intemperate statements, lack of openness to expert advice, and questionable cabinet nominations have already made a bad international security situation worse.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

DrTskoul

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #54 on: January 26, 2017, 05:57:29 PM »
Things are finally looking up!!!  :o :o
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #55 on: February 21, 2017, 03:22:48 AM »
The link leads to eight TED talks on: “What is the Anthropocene?”.  It begins by pointing out that we are stealing nature from our children & ends with a discussion of existential risks:

https://www.ted.com/playlists/439/what_is_the_anthropocene
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wili

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #56 on: February 27, 2017, 07:23:57 AM »
Not sure if this is the right thread for this.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/25/half-all-species-extinct-end-century-vatican-conference

Biologists say half of all species could be extinct by end of century

Scientists at Vatican conference are searching for a solution to the manmade ‘major extinction event’


"The living fabric of the world is slipping through our fingers without our showing much sign of caring,” say the organisers of the Biological Extinction conference held at the Vatican this week. ……………….

“Rich western countries are now siphoning up the planet’s resources and destroying its ecosystems at an unprecedented rate,” said biologist Paul Ehrlich, of Stanford University in California. “We want to build highways across the Serengeti to get more rare earth minerals for our cellphones. We grab all the fish from the sea, wreck the coral reefs and put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. We have triggered a major extinction event. The question is: how do we stop it?”

(Thanks to COBob at rs's site for this link and text)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #57 on: February 27, 2017, 10:05:13 AM »
Not sure if this is the right thread for this.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/25/half-all-species-extinct-end-century-vatican-conference

Biologists say half of all species could be extinct by end of century

Scientists at Vatican conference are searching for a solution to the manmade ‘major extinction event’


"The living fabric of the world is slipping through our fingers without our showing much sign of caring,” say the organisers of the Biological Extinction conference held at the Vatican this week. ……………….

“Rich western countries are now siphoning up the planet’s resources and destroying its ecosystems at an unprecedented rate,” said biologist Paul Ehrlich, of Stanford University in California. “We want to build highways across the Serengeti to get more rare earth minerals for our cellphones. We grab all the fish from the sea, wreck the coral reefs and put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. We have triggered a major extinction event. The question is: how do we stop it?”


(Thanks to COBob at rs's site for this link and text)


The associated linked article is entitled: "Economic Growth — A Primer"; and it argues for planned degrowth as a solution (alternately Darwin will award a different solution):

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-02-22/economic-growth-a-primer/

Extract: "True, economic growth does provide some short-term benefits and gains, and recessions are legitimately painful and destructive.  But economic growth is nevertheless the greatest threat to humanity today, and those most devoted to economic growth will, as its consistent performance begins to wane in the future, perhaps be the greatest political threat to ordinary people of the world.  There is no issue, I would argue, that is more important than ending economic growth, and doing so in a just and equitable way, whether from the perspective of long term social-justice, political stability and, most acutely, the ecology of the planet and life on Earth.

But there is also a chance that we can evolve with the onset of crises, both economic and ecological—a chance that we may, as a global population, find our way to a system of commerce and production suited to a finite planet through some combination of evolution, redesign, experimentation, and plain good luck.  But this cannot happen until people begin to understand what economic growth really means and what it really does.  There may be no short-term constituency for degrowth; but maybe, just maybe, there are enough people willing to take a moral stand, sacrifice immediate self-interest, build other systems of plentidude for the long term good of our children, grandchildren, and all those who may–or may not–be able to call the blue planet home."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

gerontocrat

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #58 on: February 27, 2017, 01:52:30 PM »
Organisations such as Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, the Green Party have been saying for years that the current economic system will at some time lead to collapse of the web of life. In the last 40 years, the average vertebrate species has declined in population by more than 50 percent. (I.e. fish, birds, amphibians, lizards, mammals)

Or as John Wayne might have (not) said " If the cowboys don't get us, the Native Americans will, and the Cavalry are out to lunch".

Shared Humanity

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #59 on: February 27, 2017, 02:14:36 PM »
Depressing chart.

Pmt111500

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #60 on: February 27, 2017, 04:45:43 PM »
Organisations such as Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, the Green Party have been saying for years that the current economic system will at some time lead to collapse of the web of life. In the last 40 years, the average vertebrate species has declined in population by more than 50 percent. (I.e. fish, birds, amphibians, lizards, mammals)

Or as John Wayne might have (not) said " If the cowboys don't get us, the jNative Americans will, and the Cavalry are out to lunch".

Diversity of insects is also in decline on many places. wasn't just recently (a) bumblebee declared endagered somewhere in USA? I know Trumpistani scheissentists do not approve many insect species, though. The stinging insect, the biting insect, crickets, and pests i think are the ones approved and despised but i don't know of others. Are there some?

(to name the species, rusty backed bumblebee is the species in question.)
« Last Edit: February 27, 2017, 05:37:29 PM by Pmt111500 »
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Hefaistos

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #61 on: February 27, 2017, 05:35:54 PM »
Depressing chart.

It looks more depressing than it should. Long term accumulative developments should be illustrated with a logarithmic scale plot, not linear scale.
The linear plot is impossible to read, it's just confusing because it obscures what it purports to illustrate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semi-log_plot#Microbial_growth

Shared Humanity

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #62 on: February 27, 2017, 08:08:36 PM »
The chart is not the least bit confusing and it is appropriately depressing.

magnamentis

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #63 on: February 27, 2017, 09:15:25 PM »
The chart is not the least bit confusing and it is appropriately depressing.

+1
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gerontocrat

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #64 on: February 27, 2017, 09:40:07 PM »
Organisations such as Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, the Green Party have been saying for years that the current economic system will at some time lead to collapse of the web of life. In the last 40 years, the average vertebrate species has declined in population by more than 50 percent. (I.e. fish, birds, amphibians, lizards, mammals)

Or as John Wayne might have (not) said " If the cowboys don't get us, the jNative Americans will, and the Cavalry are out to lunch".
65

Diversity of insects is also in decline on many places. wasn't just recently (a) bumblebee declared endagered somewhere in USA? I know Trumpistani scheissentists do not approve many insect species, though. The stinging insect, the biting insect, crickets, and pests i think are the ones approved and despised but i don't know of others. Are there some?

(to name the species, rusty backed bumblebee is the species in question.)

They say 40 percent of our food depends on fertisation by bees. They are in trouble in the USA and Europe (new types of pesticides).

TerryM

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #65 on: March 01, 2017, 06:50:05 AM »
As a child in the village of Blair, the monarch butterflies would darken the skies when startled. There has been very little growth in Blair, but the most recent butterfly count found 14 monarchs extant.


Thanks Monsanto
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #66 on: March 08, 2017, 02:19:21 AM »
The linked article is entitled: "Stephen Hawking: Technological advances 'may destroy us all'", and it elaborates on Hawking's previous warnings of existential risks.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/07/stephen-hawking-technological-advances-may-destroy-us-all/98841862/

Extract: "In an interview with The Times, Hawking reiterated that humankind faces a slew of threats ranging from climate change to mass species extinction. He noted that technological advances have helped humans achieve seemingly insurmountable feats, but may also lead to our demise.

“Since civilization began, aggression has been useful inasmuch as it has definite survival advantages,” he told The Times. “It is hard-wired into our genes by Darwinian evolution. Now, however, technology has advanced at such a pace that this aggression may destroy us all by nuclear or biological war. We need to control this inherited instinct by our logic and reason.”
But despite the issues facing humankind, there may be hope for our survival, according to Hawking, but only if we all work together.

“We need to be quicker to identify such threats and act before they get out of control. This might mean some form of world government," he said."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Pmt111500

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #67 on: March 15, 2017, 09:45:24 AM »
PETM Tropical Dinoflagellate story here, I think. Thoughts? http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1600891
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Cid_Yama

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #68 on: March 15, 2017, 05:10:32 PM »
No Tropical Thermostat during PETM

Extreme warmth and heat-stressed plankton in the tropics during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
Abstract

Global ocean temperatures rapidly warmed by ~5°C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 million years ago). Extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) met or exceeded modern subtropical values. With these warm extratropical temperatures, climate models predict tropical SSTs >35°C—near upper physiological temperature limits for many organisms. However, few data are available to test these projected extreme tropical temperatures or their potential lethality. We identify the PETM in a shallow marine sedimentary section deposited in Nigeria. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios and the molecular proxy Embedded Image, latest Paleocene equatorial SSTs were ~33°C, and Embedded Image indicates that SSTs rose to >36°C during the PETM. This confirms model predictions on the magnitude of polar amplification and refutes the tropical thermostat theory. We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming.

...we surmise that conditions became too hot for most dinoflagellate taxa during the body of the PETM, when SSTs rose to values >36°C. Such temperatures are considered uninhabitable for most marine eukaryotic organisms today (48) even for hardy dinoflagellates, which are among the most temperature-resilient eukaryote plankton groups (49). Apart from often displaying narrow temperature tolerance ranges (9), many modern thermophilic organisms show a sharp decline in productivity and, consequently, survival above optimum temperatures (50). A similar absence of mixed-layer planktonic foraminifera was observed in Tanzania (12), suggesting that heat stress may have been more widespread in tropical marginal marine settings during the PETM.

link


Longstanding theories dating to the 1980s suggest that as the rest of the earth warms, the tropical temperatures would be strictly limited, or regulated by an internal 'thermostat.' These theories are controversial, but the debate is of great importance because the tropics and subtropics comprise half of the earth's surface area, greater than half of the earth's biodiversity, as well as over half the earth's human population. But new geological and climate-based research indicates the tropics may have reached a temperature 56 million years ago that was, indeed, too hot for living organisms to survive in parts of the tropics.

"The records produced in this study indicate that when the tropics warmed that last little bit, a threshold was passed and parts of the tropical biosphere seems to have died," Huber said. "This is the first time that we've found really good information, in a very detailed way, where we saw major changes in the tropics directly associated with warming past a key threshold in the past 60 million years."

If you say there's no tropical thermostat, then half of the world's biodiversity -- over half of the world's population, the tropical rainforests, the reefs, India, Brazil -- these populous and very important countries have nothing to prevent them from warming up substantially above conditions that humans can survive.



Did they really believe in some homeostatic salvation for the tropics, or was it just too inconvenient to speak the truth? 
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 05:19:04 PM by Cid_Yama »

DrTskoul

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #69 on: March 15, 2017, 06:03:21 PM »
They actually did.  Devine intervention. You will be surprised what mental blinders and cognitive bias can do to the interpretation of data
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Pmt111500

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #70 on: March 15, 2017, 06:29:44 PM »
They actually did.  Devine intervention. You will be surprised what mental blinders and cognitive bias can do to the interpretation of data
Well yes. Ultimtely. Humanity, in this projection has the capability of killing everything (outside bacteria and cyanobacteria inside 20S°-25°N. About. Maybe this is not a clear and present danger the like US/Russian nukes are but it's a possibility and a reaso  to plan for a novel in which humanity has divided in five subspecies.
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DrTskoul

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #71 on: March 15, 2017, 06:56:10 PM »
On a planet killing scale, what is worse- nukes or hyperthermal?
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #72 on: March 15, 2017, 07:48:10 PM »
On a planet killing scale, what is worse- nukes or hyperthermal?

Who is to say that approaching hyperthermal conditions won't trigger a nuclear war; which could then trigger a nuclear winter.

Just saying ...
« Last Edit: March 15, 2017, 07:57:01 PM by AbruptSLR »
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― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

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Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« Reply #73 on: March 15, 2017, 09:28:17 PM »
On a planet killing scale, what is worse- nukes or hyperthermal?


I don't think the planet dies, just it's inhabitants.


Anything that delays what seems more and more to be our inevitable demise gets my vote. If however this comes down to the Russians dying a month sooner than we, I don't see that as advantageous.


It does seem as though the Anthropocene, for whatever reason, will be by far the shortest of eras.


Terry