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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #100 on: December 27, 2015, 02:17:30 AM »
As in this thread, and other threads, readers have demonstrated limited, or no, understanding of Vipassana mediation, nor of its implications to either socio-economic systems (including climate change implications) or to AI research, I have assembled the following Holoberg Interpretation input on this subject.  Again, the Holoberg Interpretation of the theory of everything, ToE, is that the interconnection of free will creates changing information that results in a dynamic Holographic Multiverse; which can be conceived as an information theory model where the bytes of changing/dynamic information (due to free will) form strings/membranes resulting in an illusion of a String Theory/Holographic Multiverse.  This multiverse contains suffering (including climate change) due to ignorance associated with aggregates-of-clinging/formations/ego (similar to the ignorance/errors from incomplete Frequentist process-based climate change models); and that Vipassana meditation offers a path to the cessation of such suffering leading to Nibbana (Nirvana).

Furthermore, in this thread I have noted that in his book "How to Create a Mind The Secret of Human Thought Revealed", Ray Kurzweil studies the human mind as a guide for the development of more effective AI; and I have noted that Kurzweil's limited understanding of the mind limits the full effectiveness of his AI development efforts.  Also, I have noted that in his book "Born to be Good The Science of a Meaningful Life" Dacher Keltner studies how evolution has developed emotions within the human mind, which guide (and misguide) our lives; and that a meaningful life can be lived through mindfulness (& he concludes that a sense of awe can help one find ones place in the larger scheme of things).

Thus as this thread is not about individual enlightenment, I offer the following information both as a guide to develop more effective AI models and a guide to develop more effective climate change models.
 
Regarding the first objective, I suggest that researchers (such as Kurzweil) expand their efforts from pure AI to Artificial Wisdom (via AI module + AWE module) = AW.
Where: AWE = Artificial Wisdom & Evo-emotions (evolutionarily developed emotions)

Regarding the second objective, I suggest that researchers (such as the developers of ACME) expand their efforts from advanced Earth Systems Models, ESMs, projections to Reduced-error Inductive Projections (via ESM module (at 95% CL) + DIB module) = RIP.
Where: DIB, Dynamic Inductive Bayesian, modules use all dynamic probability density functions, D-PDFs, for all available feedback mechanisms beyond those used in the 95%CL ESM module.

Currently, researchers appear to have little idea of how to program for wisdom (and thus do not know how to program an AWE module), nor do they have much idea of how to program a RIP, or a DIB, module.

Therefore, I have prepared the first schematic that provides a Holoberg Interpretation of how Vipassana meditation uses "atapi sampanjo satima, vineyya loke abhijjhadomanassesam" (ardent awareness and constant through understanding impermanence, having removed craving and aversions to the world of mind and matter), to enhance signal recognition (perception) in a dynamic noisy world (of mind & matter) in order to allow free will to recursively find wisdom (reduced error) by observing impermanence (associated with the Holoberg Interpretation concept of the free will producing changing information) using real-time observations by reducing error/ignorance, leading to a reduction in suffering (and from there to Nibbana).

In order to help decipher this first schematic (which is very rough & incomplete), I offer the second attached image that better illustrates the complex nature of the 5 Aggregates of Clinging, so that I can note that enhancing signal recognition by enhancing perception of 6 Sense Spheres allows free will to avoid reaction (due the wisdom gained by proper understanding of impermanence), resulting in an iterative reduction in the formation of sankharas.  Furthermore, to help decipher this last run-on sentence I provide the following information/links from the Internet on this subject:

"atapi sampajano satima:.

atapi = burner who is working hard
sampajanyam = equanimity (from the wisdom of understanding change in real time while observing body in body, sensations in sensations, mind in mind and mental contents in mental contents)
sati = awareness

The Buddha said: "Sampajanyam nahi rinchati" - Do NOT forget sensations.

Four paths to right awareness:
1) Observing body in body
2) Observing sensations in sensations
3) Observing mind in mind
4) Observing mental contents in mental contents"


"Whenever the Buddha was asked to describe sati (mindfulness or awareness), his explanation invariably included the term sampajañña.

Katam ca, bhikkhave, samma-sati? Idha, bhikkhave, bhikkhu kaye kayanupassi viharati atapi sampajano satima, vineyya loke abhijjha-domanassam.

And what, meditators, is right awareness? Here, a meditator dwells ardently, with constant thorough understanding and right awareness, observing the body in the body, having removed craving and aversion towards this world (of mind and matter).

From this it becomes evident that according to the Buddha, whenever there is samma-sati or satipatthana, it is always with sampajañña. That means it is with pañña (wisdom). Otherwise it is mere sati, which is mere remembrance or awareness.

In the Sutta Pitaka, the Buddha gave two explanations of the term sampajañña. In the Samyutta-nikaya the Buddha defines sampajano as follows:

Kathañca, bhikkhave, bhikkhu sampajano hoti? Idha, bhikkhave, bhikkhuno vidita vedana uppajjanti, vidita upatthahanti, vidita abbhattham gacchanti; vidita sañña uppajjanti, vidita upahahanti, vidita abbhattham gacchanti; vidita vitakka uppajjanti, vidita upatthahanti, vidita abbhattham gacchanti. Evam kho, bhikkhave, bhikkhu sampajano hoti.

And how, meditators, does a meditator understand thoroughly? Herein, meditators, a meditator knows sensations arising in him, knows their persisting, and knows their vanishing; he knows perceptions arising in him, knows their persisting, and knows their vanishing; he knows each initial application (of the mind on an object) arising in him, knows its persisting, and knows its vanishing. This, meditators, is how a meditator understands thoroughly."

The following link discusses "Sankhara":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sa%E1%B9%85kh%C4%81ra

Extract: "Saṅkhāra (Pali; Sanskrit saṃskāra) is a term figuring prominently in Buddhism. The word means 'that which has been put together' and 'that which puts together'.
In the first (passive) sense, saṅkhāra refers to conditioned phenomena generally but specifically to all mental "dispositions". These are called 'volitional formations' both because they are formed as a result of volition and because they are causes for the arising of future volitional actions. English translations for saṅkhāra in the first sense of the word include 'conditioned things,' 'determinations,' 'fabrications' and 'formations' (or, particularly when referring to mental processes, 'volitional formations').
In the second (active) sense of the word, saṅkhāra refers to that faculty of the mind/brain apparatus (sankhara-khandha) that puts together those formations.

When preliminary nibbana with substrate occurs (that is, nibbana of a living being), constructive consciousness, that is, the house-builder, is completely destroyed and no new formations will be constructed. However, sankharas in the sense of constructed consciousness, which exists as a 'karmically-resultant-consciousness' (vipāka viññāna), continue to exist."

The following link discusses "Metta":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mett%C4%81

Extract: "Mettā (Pali) or maitrī (Sanskrit) is benevolence, friendliness, amity, friendship, good will, kindness, close mental union (on same mental wavelength), and active interest in others. It is one of the ten pāramīs of the Theravāda school of Buddhism, and the first of the four sublime states (Brahmavihāras). Mettā is love without the suffering that arises from attachment (known as upādāna)."

The following link discusses "The Twelve Nidanas":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve_Nid%C4%81nas

Extract: "The Twelve Nidānas (Pali/Sanskrit: nidāna "cause, foundation, source or origin") are an application of the Buddhist concept of pratītyasamutpāda (dependent origination). They identify the origin of dukkha (suffering) to be in avidyā (ignorance)."

If other Pali words, or concepts, do not make sense then feel free to use Wikipedia to gain more insight, as I believe that I have provide enough background to make the following two points.
1. As Google now searches the entire Internet to provide input to its AI program(s) to recognition patterns/signals in the data; researchers could connect a strong Vipassana meditator to an AWE module in order acquire a priori and to calibrate the iterative process of error reduction (cessation of suffering).
2. As ESMs use 95% CL models of feedback mechanisms, all climate change researchers could be required to link their raw data to the Internet, so that web-based AW computer system could calibrate DIB, Dynamic Inductive Bayesian, modules use all dynamic probability density functions, D-PDFs, for all available feedback mechanisms beyond those used in the 95%CL ESM module.

Edit: I neglected to mention that the AI, AWE, ESM and the RIP modules would theoretically all work better using an advanced quantum computer (in a few decades time).
« Last Edit: December 27, 2015, 06:48:00 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #101 on: December 27, 2015, 10:17:51 AM »
Per the linked article, AI is going open source:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2015/12/24/5-things-you-should-know-about-the-plan-to-open-source-artificial-intelligence/

Extract: "The basic idea is that OpenAI, which will be structured as a nonprofit research company, will work on AI innovations that benefit humanity: “Our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return.” But even the founders admit that only a “tiny fraction” of the $1 billion is going to be spent in the next few years."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Shared Humanity

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #102 on: December 27, 2015, 02:51:21 PM »
Great!!!! Just read up thread on cloning and now I'm going to have nightmares about little Donald Trumps' running around all over the place.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #103 on: December 27, 2015, 06:52:39 PM »
Great!!!! Just read up thread on cloning and now I'm going to have nightmares about little Donald Trumps' running around all over the place.

If you have so little faith in humanity that you do not want to clone The Donald, then maybe you should consider relying more on an Artificial Wisdom, AW, program to sort out our socio-economic (including climate change) problems, as they are not likely to do any worse than The Donald.  However, I do acknowledge that both might (or might not) contribute to the deaths of large numbers of people.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Theta

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #104 on: December 27, 2015, 09:22:55 PM »
Great!!!! Just read up thread on cloning and now I'm going to have nightmares about little Donald Trumps' running around all over the place.

They're gonna make earth great again
Can't think of a signature

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #105 on: January 04, 2016, 01:23:15 AM »
Regarding my discussions in Reply #100 on the Holoborg Interpretation of the Establishment of Mindfulness, I note that the first diagram of Reply #100 begins with the "The Twelve Nidanas" (or 12 conditioned origins, or causes of suffering).  The difficulty of over-coming such pre-conditioning is illustrated by the following quote from Leo Tolstoy:

Leo Tolstoy: “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.”

Furthermore, the first diagram focuses on the constant & recurring application of the following Pali phrase/logic to over-come the clinging/adverse associated with such pre-conditioning, in order to both enhance the signal of wisdom/enlightenment and to decrease (or ultimately eliminate) suffering/errors:

"atapi sampajano satima, vineyya loke abhijjhadomanassesam"

Furthermore, I offer the following discussion about the Pali in this phase:

Atapi is the right effort; which allows one to focus on, and sub-divide (dhamma investigation), the signals observed by free will in real time & in a manner that is aware of the transient (impermanent) nature of the signals (body in body, sensations in sensations, mind in mind and mental content in mental content).

Sampanjano allows one to transcend the truth that one believes at any moment (priori) to perceive (sanna, see the second image in Reply #100) the truth that is in that moment, and then allows one to use free will to choose not to react to form (sankhara, see the second image in Reply #100) another mindless posterior but rather to produce a mindful/wise posterior (which result in less misery/suffering/signal error).

Satima allows one to maintain continuous awareness while maintaining atapi and sampanjano.
vineyya loke abhijjhadomanassesam avoids the clinging/aversion that feed the sankharas (that which has been put together and which puts together) of the pre-conditioned contents of the mind and body.

To me it is self-evident that this Pali phase describes a process that facilitates the scientific method, and could be used to expedite the process-based method being used by the IPCC to address the climate change challenge (which is difficult and requires science to make many approximations/assumptions that result in pre-conditioned priori that require atapi sampanjano satima, vineyya loke abhijjhadomanassesam to produce a mindful/wise posterior resulting in reduced suffering/error).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #106 on: January 04, 2016, 04:16:18 PM »
The linked reference indicates that a combination of crowdsourcing and high-end computation (including AI) should be sufficient to address "wicked problems" such as climate change:

Pietro Michelucci and Janis L. Dickinson (1 January 2016), "Human Computation The power of crowds", Science, Vol. 351 no. 6268 pp. 32-33, DOI: 10.1126/science.aad6499
 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/351/6268/32


Extract: "Human computation, a term introduced by Luis von Ahn, refers to distributed systems that combine the strengths of humans and computers to accomplish tasks that neither can do alone. The seminal example is reCAPTCHA, a Web widget used by 100 million people a day when they transcribe distorted text into a box to prove they are human. This free cognitive labor provides users with access to Web content and keeps websites safe from spam attacks, while feeding into a massive, crowd-powered transcription engine that has digitized 13 million articles from The New York Times archives. But perhaps the best known example of human computation is Wikipedia. Despite initial concerns about accuracy, it has become the key resource for all kinds of basic information. Information science has begun to build on these early successes, demonstrating the potential to evolve human computation systems that can model and address wicked problems (those that defy traditional problem-solving methods) at the intersection of economic, environmental, and sociopolitical systems."

Perhaps energetic poster on this forum could use Mechanical Turk to process cutting edge climate change findings, like calving events in Greenland:

https://www.mturk.com/mturk/welcome

Extract:
"Ask workers to complete HITs - Human Intelligence Tasks - and get results using Mechanical Turk. Get Started.
As a Mechanical Turk Requester you:
Have access to a global, on-demand, 24 x 7 workforce
Get thousands of HITs completed in minutes
Pay only when you're satisfied with the results

 
HITs - Human Intelligence Tasks - are individual tasks that you work on. Find HITs now.
As a Mechanical Turk Worker you:
Can work from home
Choose your own work hours
Get paid for doing good work"

Edit: See also:
http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2016/0104/How-humans-and-machines-can-team-up-to-tackle-world-s-wicked-challenges
« Last Edit: January 04, 2016, 05:53:35 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #107 on: January 06, 2016, 05:31:23 PM »
Intel has now embraced the Internet of Things.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3019557/internet-of-things/intel-embraces-internet-of-things-puts-sensors-on-everything.html

Extract: "Intel embraces Internet of Things, puts sensors on everything."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

mati

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #108 on: January 07, 2016, 03:38:47 AM »
Intel has now embraced the Internet of Things.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3019557/internet-of-things/intel-embraces-internet-of-things-puts-sensors-on-everything.html

here is an example:
https://blogs.oracle.com/hinkmond/entry/iot_used_for_retail_inventory

I work on this stuff :)

Extract: "Intel embraces Internet of Things, puts sensors on everything."
and so it goes

TerryM

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #109 on: January 07, 2016, 11:11:16 AM »
Intel has now embraced the Internet of Things.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3019557/internet-of-things/intel-embraces-internet-of-things-puts-sensors-on-everything.html

here is an example:
https://blogs.oracle.com/hinkmond/entry/iot_used_for_retail_inventory

I work on this stuff :)

Extract: "Intel embraces Internet of Things, puts sensors on everything."




Mati
Would Littlebits components make DIY applications practical in this field?
Thanks
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #110 on: January 09, 2016, 05:46:54 PM »
"Moral hazard" is a human condition well addressed by the Holoberg Interpretation of Vipassana.  Moral hazard is a situation in which one party gets involved in a risky event knowing that it is protected against the risk and the other party will incur the cost; and arises from an information asymmetry.  Moral hazard runs the gambit of human activities from:

(a) Reproduction, where "Cads" (vs "Dads") transfer pregnancy risks/costs to women, to;

(b) Principal-agent problems like: financial agents (eg: banks) repackaging high-risk subprime loans that caused the 2007-2008 financial crisis know that the government would make them whole; or medical experts who first look after their interests before their patients; or news reporters looking after their own financial interest before their job to convey the truth to their readers; or religions that think of the best interest of the church before that of their followers; or climate scientists who think about their reputations before the need to take timely action on climate change, to;

(c) "Survival of the fittest" thinking that promotes exploitation vs "Natural Selection" thinking that promotes cooperation in the face of adversity.

Clearly, moral hazard is not unique to capitalism (here taken to be "crony capitalism"); however, the use of money/power in capitalism amplifies moral hazard to the point where it poses an existential risk to humans.  Hopefully, the information age will offer means (see multiple puts in this thread about such means including human interface with AI/AW) to reduce the information asymmetry leading to means to better address these moral hazards, in time to reduce the damage likely to be created by our modern international socio-economic capital-driven system:

The following links offer some insights to the new generation of moral hazards that need to be addressed due to our rapidly changing world (besides climate change):

http://observer.com/2015/12/beware-the-new-moral-hazards-of-media/
Extract: "The moral hazards of journalism used to seem clearer. There were a fundamental few: that advertisers would sway coverage with their business; that the powerful would influence owners with their clout or journalists by limiting the access they prize; that reporters and editors would be blinded by their own worldview and wishes.
Now, as the business of news struggles for new business models or saviors, the hazards grow more numerous and complex for all, from blunt challenges for the Las Vegas Review-Journal to more subtle and thus dangerous ones for The New York Times to sneaky problems for everyone.

But note the Trump Paradox: On the one hand, Donald Trump is not spending money on television advertising because he built his notoriety on the back of business and network TV and then leveraged it for free on Twitter. Howard Dean campaign runner Joe Trippi famously predicted in a book title that The Revolution Will Not Be Televised but who would have guessed that the post-television election era would be dominated not by a movement—a la Occupy Wall Street—but instead by a TV showman?
Mr. Trump’s showmanship still means record viewership and therein lies the moral hazard for network TV: See how CBS CEO Les Moonves egged on Mr. Trump to be yet more outrageous, if one can only imagine that: “Go Donald! Keep getting out there!” Mr. Moonves said to investors. “We’re looking forward to a very exciting political year in ’16.”

The moral of this story for those who dream of white knights to rescue newspapers from the messy necessities of capitalism are clear: ownership can bring more conflicts than profitability.

In the end, the real job of the journalist—our real value—is to navigate moral hazard, to deliver facts without favor. Our job is not to serve advertisers or owners or the powerful. We serve the public. Yet that, too, can bring a moral hazard if we think that we should tell the people what they want to know or what will wow them.
No, it is our job to tell them what they need to know even and especially when it is uncomfortable or unwelcome. And that will work only if we shift our business model away from old, mass-media ways—attracting audience by the ton and selling that to advertisers—and come to be valued on the impact we have in improving people’s lives and communities. It will take time, effort, experimentation, and imagination to develop that new economy for news. In the meantime, on the way there, we must navigate a rocky road filled with hazards."

See also:
http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20151211/1031614459/ukraine-debt-imf-reform.html

Extract: "The United States did not initially support the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) proposal to provide loans to defaulting debtor nations before the Ukraine crisis erupted, which is setting a dangerous precedent and moral hazard that could dry up capital markets, experts told Sputnik.
On December 8, the IMF Board of Directors voted to reform its lending policies, allowing countries to continue borrowing money even if they default on bilateral obligations to official creditors. The reform allows the IMF to continue Ukraine's $40 billion bailout program even after a potential default by Kiev on its $3 billion Eurobond debt to Russia


“We call this ‘moral hazard’,” Levi said. “The entity that avoids re-payment is the only beneficiary, but even they pay a price in the future from reduced access to the global capital market.”"


See also:
http://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/What-binds-the-U-S-and-Chinese-economies-Moral-6744063.php
Extract: "What binds the U.S. and Chinese economies? Moral hazard"

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #111 on: January 10, 2016, 10:26:12 AM »
As a follow-on to my immediate prior post about "Moral hazard", it should come as no surprise to anyone reading this forum that the current generation is involved in highly risky climate change behavior while passing the risk to future generations who suffer an information asymmetry either because they are children or unborn.  This issue of intergenerational ethics is called the Tyranny of the Contemporary, and the linked article indicates that at least since the IPCC has been established, the current "me" generation has badly failed this ethical test:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-theory/wp/2016/01/09/why-climate-change-is-an-ethical-problem/

Extract: "The real climate challenge is ethical, and ethical considerations of justice, rights, welfare, virtue, political legitimacy, community and humanity’s relationship to nature are at the heart of the policy decisions to be made. We do not “solve” the climate problem if we inflict catastrophe on future generations, or facilitate genocide against poor nations, or rapidly accelerate the pace of mass extinction. If public policy neglects such concerns, its account of the challenge we face is impoverished, and the associated solutions quickly become grossly inadequate. Ongoing political inertia surrounding climate action suggests that so far, we are failing the ethical test."

See also:
The Tyranny of the Contemporary by Stephen M. Gardiner
DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195379440.003.0006

http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195379440.001.0001/acprof-9780195379440-chapter-6
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #112 on: January 10, 2016, 03:27:38 PM »
Great links.....thank you.

Shared Humanity

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #114 on: January 10, 2016, 08:01:17 PM »
SH,
Thanks for the link, from which I take the following extracts, and make the following brief comments about the Holoberg Interpretation of Vipassana after the extracts:

Extract: "Meanwhile, as the gap between the future we’re entering and the future we once imagined grows ever wider, nihilism takes root in the shadow of our fear: if all is already lost, nothing matters anyway.

Scientific materialism, taken to its extreme, threatens us with meaninglessness; if consciousness is reducible to the brain and our actions are determined not by will but by causes, then our values and beliefs are merely rationalizations for the things we were going to do anyway. Most people find this view of human life repugnant, if not incomprehensible.

Accepting the fatality of our situation isn’t nihilism, but rather the necessary first step in forging a new way of life. Between self-destruction and giving up, between willing nothingness and not willing, there is another choice: willing our fate. Conscious self-creation. We owe it to the generations whose futures we’ve burned and wasted to build a bridge, to be a bridge, to connect the diverse human traditions of meaning-making in our past to those survivors, children of the Anthropocene, who will build a new world among our ruins."

Some people react nihilistically to the Four Noble Truths (related to the reality of, roots of, arising of, and the path to the cessation of suffering); however, acknowledgement of these truths lead to Metta (unattached love) and ultimately to Nibbana.  Also, some people think that the ultimate reality of "free will" means that they have souls, but the Buddha taught both that there are no souls but that there is "free will".  Such truths cannot be fully understood by teaching/philosophizing but only through living in the moment with equanimity and awareness.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #115 on: January 10, 2016, 10:52:58 PM »
Thanks guys,
I will read some parts with attention.
Best, Werther

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #116 on: January 11, 2016, 11:23:50 AM »
SH,
Thanks for the link, from which I take the following extracts, and make the following brief comments about the Holoberg Interpretation of Vipassana after the extracts:

Extract: "Meanwhile, as the gap between the future we’re entering and the future we once imagined grows ever wider, nihilism takes root in the shadow of our fear: if all is already lost, nothing matters anyway.

Scientific materialism, taken to its extreme, threatens us with meaninglessness; if consciousness is reducible to the brain and our actions are determined not by will but by causes, then our values and beliefs are merely rationalizations for the things we were going to do anyway. Most people find this view of human life repugnant, if not incomprehensible.

Accepting the fatality of our situation isn’t nihilism, but rather the necessary first step in forging a new way of life. Between self-destruction and giving up, between willing nothingness and not willing, there is another choice: willing our fate. Conscious self-creation. We owe it to the generations whose futures we’ve burned and wasted to build a bridge, to be a bridge, to connect the diverse human traditions of meaning-making in our past to those survivors, children of the Anthropocene, who will build a new world among our ruins."

Some people react nihilistically to the Four Noble Truths (related to the reality of, roots of, arising of, and the path to the cessation of suffering); however, acknowledgement of these truths lead to Metta (unattached love) and ultimately to Nibbana.  Also, some people think that the ultimate reality of "free will" means that they have souls, but the Buddha taught both that there are no souls but that there is "free will".  Such truths cannot be fully understood by teaching/philosophizing but only through living in the moment with equanimity and awareness.

Best,
ASLR
many interesting posts i've seen from you recently, especially the (in positive receptin) OT ones LOL.

i'm usually careful to reply on those since the topics can be discussed endlessly at times which is not what this place is for. what really caught my eyes in that great statement IMO is the part "buddah tought us") while i'm by no means sayin' that he was wrong, i still prefer if that would read "buddah was of the opinion" because whenever people believe that their prophet and/or god is the only true one (taught us implies that it's a fact) the outcome is and was ultimately horrible. not because of the believer but because of the "abusing" and "exploiting" minorities and/or institutions, without going there to mention any (they are very well known, keyword would be inquisition, jihad etc.) i could not resist to write this because i very much LIKE your approach and hence i'm sure that you're a person who even should you disagree considers the thought.

taking the opportunity here to thank you for all the valuable "On Topic" contributions as well. this place is a real pleasure to read through every day and enjoy the insight, farsight and level of eductation.  :)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #117 on: January 11, 2016, 06:58:22 PM »
many interesting posts i've seen from you recently, especially the (in positive receptin) OT ones LOL.

i'm usually careful to reply on those since the topics can be discussed endlessly at times which is not what this place is for. what really caught my eyes in that great statement IMO is the part "buddah tought us") while i'm by no means sayin' that he was wrong, i still prefer if that would read "buddah was of the opinion" because whenever people believe that their prophet and/or god is the only true one (taught us implies that it's a fact) the outcome is and was ultimately horrible. not because of the believer but because of the "abusing" and "exploiting" minorities and/or institutions, without going there to mention any (they are very well known, keyword would be inquisition, jihad etc.) i could not resist to write this because i very much LIKE your approach and hence i'm sure that you're a person who even should you disagree considers the thought.

taking the opportunity here to thank you for all the valuable "On Topic" contributions as well. this place is a real pleasure to read through every day and enjoy the insight, farsight and level of eductation.  :)

Note that:
- There are whole threads in this forum on what the Catholic Pope says and he is the recognized head of an organized religion with considerable dogma, so talking about the Buddha here is appropriate.
- The Buddha did not found a religion (Buddhism was founded long after he died) and what the Buddha taught was what he experienced himself directly.  Thus from your perspective his insights might appear to be subjective opinions, but from his perspective would be direct knowledge.  This is why Vispassana only works if one practices it, and does not work if one only debates or theorizes about it, because direct knowledge can only be personnel and cannot be second-hand.
- The point of putting this information/discussion in the science folder is not to talk about religion but to talk about that climate change is a consequence of the "moral hazard" of most human behavior amplified by international capitalism; which could be better addressed than we are doing at the moment by using a combination of AI (or Artificial Wisdom if lessons from Vispassana are included in AI programs) combined with human interface.  Note that recent research at the University of Cornell has indicated that the "wicked problem" of climate change is resolvable using just such an approach (see Reply #106).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Laurent

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #118 on: January 13, 2016, 08:30:56 PM »
Fossil fuel burning 'postponing next ice age'
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/13/fossil-fuel-burning-postponing-next-ice-age

Climate change is altering global cycles to such an extent that the next ice age has been delayed for at least 100,000 years, according to new research identifying Earth’s deep-freeze tipping point

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #119 on: January 15, 2016, 01:04:57 AM »
Kurzweil predicts the singularity to occur around 2045 and that in order deal with such an explosion of AI superintelligence, that humans will need to link with the AI.  The following Wikipedia link offers discussion about this subject:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Extract: "The technological singularity is a hypothetical event related to the advent of genuine artificial general intelligence (also known as "strong AI"). Such a computer, computer network, or robot would theoretically be capable of recursive self-improvement (redesigning itself), or of designing and building computers or robots better than itself on its own.



Because the capabilities of such a superintelligence may be impossible for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is the point beyond which events may become unpredictable or even unfathomable to human intelligence. "

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Laurent

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #120 on: January 15, 2016, 06:22:28 PM »
Corporate leaders still in denial on climate change
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/jan/15/katherine-garrett-cox-ceo-major-corporations-denying-climate-change

Too many people in the corporate sector are still in denial about climate change, according to Katherine Garrett-Cox, the CEO of investment firm Alliance Trust.
Guardian Live Podcast Is business action on climate change believable? - Guardian Live event
Are businesses still in denial about climate change or has the mood changed following the Paris talks? At a Guardian Live event, an expert panel question whether 2016 will be the year companies help kickstart a global movement to reduce climate emissions
Listen

Speaking at a Guardian Sustainable Business debate on the role of business in tackling climate change, Garrett-Cox, herself an outspoken advocate on the issue, said: “Within the last 12 months, I’ve had conversations with CEOs of major corporates in Europe and they just say, ‘It’s not real, it’s not something I should be bothered about’.” It is “scary” how little discussion there is at boardroom level about whether climate change is a risk at all, she added.

One month on from a landmark climate change deal at UN talks in Paris, Garrett-Cox hopes this will be the tipping point for businesses waking up to climate change. Ikea’s sustainability chief Steve Howard agreed, saying 2016 presents the corporate world with “an unprecedented opportunity” to reinvent its business models in line with the challenge.

However, speaking at the event, the UK’s only Green party MP Caroline Lucas said the government was making this transition more difficult: “This is a government that doesn’t like scrutiny ... and that’s part of the whole way it’s going about its green policies.”

The UK government has been widely criticised since its election in May for making a series of changes to environmental policy such as scrapping subsidies for onshore wind, ending the green deal scheme that helps homeowners insulate their homes and cutting support for the solar industry, which has since seen a number of firms going into liquidation.

“What this government is doing in the name of being business friendly is constantly moving the goalposts so that no one knows where it’s going to be safe to invest,” she said. “The green economy is actually one of the best places to invest for jobs, to enable us to get out of the economic crisis we face as well as to keep emissions down.”

And moving to a green economy means rethinking consumption patterns, especially in the west, according to Howard . “If we look on a global basis, in the west we have probably hit peak stuff. We talk about peak oil. I’d say we’ve hit peak red meat, peak sugar, peak stuff … peak home furnishings. If you look on a global basis, most people are still poor and most people actually haven’t got to sufficiency yet. There is a global growth opportunity ... but it’s a distribution issue.”

Ikea has hit the headlines for introducing a raft of environmental policies in the last year. It has pledged to invest €1bn (£755m) in renewable energy and measures to help poorer communities deal with the impacts of climate change; announced that 100% of the energy used to power its shops and factories will come from clean sources by 2020; and phased out all non-LED lightbulbs from its stores.
Exploding the productivity myth: jobs, cuts and carbon slaves
Read more

Leading climate change scientist Kevin Anderson, from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Research, was more sceptical and said the idea that the green economy would enable people in the west to consume more was irreconcilable with international climate change commitments.

“At a global level – if you want to see any level of equity around the globe – the idea that people like us can consume and see improvements in material wellbeing is to me not compatible with what the science is telling us about climate change … there are real problems if we try to tell people that, actually, if we’re really clever in the wealthy parts of the world that we can have our cake and eat it. That misunderstands the severity of the challenge we’re facing.”

Anderson said that in the future it could be necessary to introduce a shorter working week, he added.

“Under the current model you need growth because there is a pursuit of productivity, which people always say is a good thing. If we have an increase in productivity that means you have fewer people producing the same number of goods. If you want to then maintain employment you have to maintain growth to have the same number of people employed,” he said.

“So you have to start unpicking all these pieces and saying, ‘Well what would that mean for our society?’ There are different reasons why we might be looking at a world where we have to work fewer hours. We consume fewer goods but we have a higher quality of life in that time that we have available.”

The panel featured:

    Katherine Garrett-Cox, CEO of Alliance Trust
    Caroline Lucas, Green Party MP and climate change campaigner
    Steve Howard, head of sustainability at Ikea
    Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Research
    Sasja Beslik, Nordea Responsible Investments


AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #121 on: January 21, 2016, 09:16:35 PM »
The linked articles cite that DARPA is making rapid advances to achieve high-performance cyborgs suitable for the battle field:

http://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2015-01-19

Extract: "A new DARPA program aims to develop an implantable neural interface able to provide unprecedented signal resolution and data-transfer bandwidth between the human brain and the digital world. The interface would serve as a translator, converting between the electrochemical language used by neurons in the brain and the ones and zeros that constitute the language of information technology. The goal is to achieve this communications link in a biocompatible device no larger than one cubic centimeter in size, roughly the volume of two nickels stacked back to back.
The program, Neural Engineering System Design (NESD), stands to dramatically enhance research capabilities in neurotechnology and provide a foundation for new therapies.
“Today’s best brain-computer interface systems are like two supercomputers trying to talk to each other using an old 300-baud modem,” said Phillip Alvelda, the NESD program manager. “Imagine what will become possible when we upgrade our tools to really open the channel between the human brain and modern electronics.”"


Also see:
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jan/20/us-military-cyborg-connecting-humans-computers
Extract: "The US government is researching technology that it hopes will turn soldiers into cyborgs, allowing them to connect directly to computers."


http://www.newsweek.com/us-military-plans-cyborg-soldiers-new-darpa-project-418128

Extract: "The brain-machine interface is being developed by the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which claims the neural connection will “open the channel between the human brain and modern electronics.”
It is not the first time DARPA researchers have attempted to build a brain-machine interface, however previous versions have had limited functionality. The agency’s new Neural Engineering System Design (NESD) research program aims to increase brain neuron interaction from tens of thousands to millions at a time."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #122 on: January 22, 2016, 04:44:12 PM »
Obviously, if AI & cyborgs are an issue then killer robots is also a rapidly coming issue, that the shakers and movers at Davos propose to master:

http://www.kspr.com/life/money/how-to-prepare-for-killer-robots/21052342_37557508

Extract: "A panel of top experts in the fields of robotics, weapons and disarmament called on world leaders Thursday to lay the groundwork to regulate killer robots as tightly as the nuclear sector.

The experts, who spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, want the world to be ready for the day when killer robots become a reality.

What is a killer robot? It's a self-directed robot that can be programmed to target and kill people without human intervention. They don't exist yet. But they're coming."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #123 on: January 26, 2016, 12:46:20 AM »
I have previously noted that AI & quantum computing synergize each other, and the linked (open access) reference cites progress made in using quantum machine learning algorithms to help solve tough real-world big data problems.  You should get ready because quantum computing may well be common place beginning in the 2020's:

Seth Lloyd, Silvano Garnerone & Paolo Zanardi (January 25, 2015), "Quantum algorithms for topological and geometric analysis of data", Nature Communications, Volume: 7, Article number: 10138, doi:10.1038/ncomms10138


http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160125/ncomms10138/full/ncomms10138.html


Abstract: "Extracting useful information from large data sets can be a daunting task. Topological methods for analysing data sets provide a powerful technique for extracting such information. Persistent homology is a sophisticated tool for identifying topological features and for determining how such features persist as the data is viewed at different scales. Here we present quantum machine learning algorithms for calculating Betti numbers—the numbers of connected components, holes and voids—in persistent homology, and for finding eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the combinatorial Laplacian. The algorithms provide an exponential speed-up over the best currently known classical algorithms for topological data analysis."


See also:
http://phys.org/news/2016-01-quantum-approach-big.html

Extract: "From gene mapping to space exploration, humanity continues to generate ever-larger sets of data—far more information than people can actually process, manage, or understand.

Machine learning systems can help researchers deal with this ever-growing flood of information. Some of the most powerful of these analytical tools are based on a strange branch of geometry called topology, which deals with properties that stay the same even when something is bent and stretched every which way.
Such topological systems are especially useful for analyzing the connections in complex networks, such as the internal wiring of the brain, the U.S. power grid, or the global interconnections of the Internet. But even with the most powerful modern supercomputers, such problems remain daunting and impractical to solve. Now, a new approach that would use quantum computers to streamline these problems has been developed by researchers at MIT, the University of Waterloo, and the University of Southern California.
The team describes their theoretical proposal this week in the journal Nature Communications. Seth Lloyd, the paper's lead author and the Nam P. Suh Professor of Mechanical Engineering, explains that algebraic topology is key to the new method. This approach, he says, helps to reduce the impact of the inevitable distortions that arise every time someone collects data about the real world."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #124 on: January 27, 2016, 08:28:46 PM »
The following reference discusses how Google's AlphaGo program has beat a human master (European) Go master.  Adaptions of such an AI program should be applicable to climate change issues:

Silver, D. et al. Nature 529, 484–489 (2016).

See also:
Elizabeth Gibney (27 January 2016), "Google AI algorithm masters ancient game of Go Deep-learning software defeats human professional for first time", Nature, Volume: 529, Pages: 445–446, doi:10.1038/529445a

http://www.nature.com/news/google-ai-algorithm-masters-ancient-game-of-go-1.19234


http://www.wired.com/2016/01/in-a-huge-breakthrough-googles-ai-beats-a-top-player-at-the-game-of-go/

http://gizmodo.com/google-just-beat-facebook-in-race-to-artificial-intelli-1755435478


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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #125 on: January 30, 2016, 07:42:39 PM »
The linked article discussing the dichotomy between climate holism vs climate reductionism makes many good points (too many to extract below); nevertheless, I cannot help but to feel that it dances around the fundamental truth that the application of reductionism is fundamental to the application of holism, and what is needed is a means to make these two sides of the same coin work together in wisdom & harmony.  In prior posts, I have illustrated how the application of "atapi-sampajano-satima" is just such a means where one recognizes the suffering created by reductionism in real time (atapi) thereby developing the wisdom (sampajano) to let go of pre-conditioned assumptions inherent in reductionism in order fully live (remain aware) in the moment (satima).  If large masses of people are resistant to undertaking the work (atapi) necessary to get reductionism & holism to work together (atapi-sampajano-satima) then we should not be surprised when many people die between 2050 & 2100 before a Holoborg type of global system creates a more sustainable world structure for several hundred years before systemic pre-conditioning breaks down the Holoborg system resulting another cycle of suffering:

http://www.postcarbon.org/climate-holism-vs-climate-reductionism/

Extract: "In general, then, reductionist thinking about climate change tends to lead to narrow, targeted strategies that will benefit centralized and powerful industries, whereas holistic thinking suggests systemic proposals for change that may not benefit any dominant group.

It is discouraging to see the degree to which blinkered reductionist thinking permeates the recently hatched COP 21 climate agreement.

The lure of the technofix is that we won’t have to fundamentally change our behavior. We can go on extracting resources, using energy, and making money, all at an ever-accelerating pace. Wall Street is happy, government is happy, workers are happy. Here’s the thing: this line of action cannot solve the cascading complex of crises that will hammer civilization to bits during the remainder of this century. Until we start thinking holistically and alter our systemic behavior, we are locked into a trajectory that leads inevitably to a chain of mutually reinforcing planetary breakdowns that start with droughts and superstorms and won’t end until everything we hold dear is either destroyed or rendered meaningless.
Ecology, holism, and systems thinking are powerful tools for understanding ourselves and our world. If we start actually using those tools in earnest to address climate change and other related ecological and social dilemmas, we could save ourselves, our descendants, and a host of other living beings a great deal of unnecessary suffering."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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sidd

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #126 on: February 02, 2016, 11:34:18 PM »
Peters and Gell-Mann (yes, that Gell-Mann), "Evaluating gambles using dynamics," Chaos,v26,023103 (2016) doi:10.1063/1.4940236

on an error in economic thinking introduced by Bernoulli in 1738, corrected by Laplace in 1814, reintroduced by Menger in 1934 and undetected by economists until now. Very readable, and demonstrates again that many economists are not precise enough to be mathematicians. Unkind people might say many economists should not be economists either, or that economics is too important to leave to economists, or ... but i digress.  I particularly like the discussion of constructing ergodic variables on non ergodic processes and the erroneous rejection of unbounded utility functions.

"The concepts we have presented resolve the fundamental problem of decision theory, therefore game theory, and asset pricing. Cochrane’s book 2 is important in this context as it sets out clearly that all of asset pricing can be derived from the 'basic pricing equation'—precisely the combination of a utility function and expectation values we have critiqued here. Cochrane further argues that the methods used in asset pricing summarize much of macroeconomics."

...

"The arguments we have outlined are not restricted to monetary wealth but apply to anything that is well modeled by a stochastic growth process. Applications to ecology and biology seem natural."

And, I think, to risk/benefit analysis of climate outcomes. I can tell this is going to be one of my brainworms forawhile.

the paper is open access

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #127 on: February 03, 2016, 01:21:48 AM »
For those who want a direct link to sidd's open source Peters & Gell-Mann (2016) reference, I provide the following, and I concur that this paper could be used to best address climate change issues including:  risk, insurance, revenue neutral carbon pricing, and other topics:

Ole Peters and Murray Gell-Mann (Feb. 2, 2016), "Evaluating gambles using dynamics," Chaos, DOI: 10.1063/1.4940236

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/journal/chaos/26/2/10.1063/1.4940236

Abstract: "Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but their generality limits predictive power. Expectation value maximizers are defined as rational in economics, but expectation values are only meaningful in the presence of ensembles or in systems with ergodic properties, whereas decision-makers have no access to ensembles, and the variables representing wealth in the usual growth models do not have the relevant ergodic properties. Simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of utility and those of expectations, we propose to evaluate gambles by averaging wealth growth over time. No utility function is needed, but a dynamic must be specified to compute time averages. Linear and logarithmic “utility functions” appear as transformations that generate ergodic observables for purely additive and purely multiplicative dynamics, respectively. We highlight inconsistencies throughout the development of decision theory, whose correction clarifies that our perspective is legitimate. These invalidate a commonly cited argument for bounded utility functions."


Also see:
http://www.newswise.com/articles/exploring-gambles-reveals-foundational-difficulty-behind-economic-theory-and-a-solution

Extract: " In the wake of the financial crisis, many started questioning different aspects of the economic formalism.
This included Ole Peters, a Fellow at the London Mathematical Laboratory in the U.K., as well as an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico, and Murray Gell-Mann, a physicist who was awarded the 1969 Nobel Prize in physics for his contributions to the theory of elementary particles by introducing quarks, and is now a Distinguished Fellow at the Santa Fe Institute. They found it particularly curious that a field so central to how we live together as a society seems so unsure about so many of its key questions.

So they asked: Might there be a foundational difficulty underlying our current economic theory? Is there some hidden assumption, possibly hundreds of years old, behind not one but many of the current scientific problems in economic theory? Such a foundational problem could have far-reaching practical consequences because economic theory informs economic policy.

As they report in the journal Chaos, from AIP Publishing, the story that emerged is a fascinating example of scientific history, of how human understanding evolves, gets stuck, gets unstuck, branches, and so on.



The key concepts of time and randomness are at the heart of their work. "Questions of an economic nature stood at the beginning of formal thinking about randomness in the 17th century," he explained. "These are all relatively young concepts -- there's nothing in Euclid about probability theory." Think of it simply in terms of: Should I bet money in a game of dice? How much should I pay for an insurance contract? What would be a fair price for a life annuity?
"All of these questions have something to do with randomness, and the way to deal with them in the 17th century was to imagine parallel worlds representing everything that could happen," Gell-Mann said. "To assess the value of some uncertain venture, an average is taken across those parallel worlds."

This concept was only challenged in the mid-19th century when randomness was used formally in a different context -- physics. "Here, the following perspective arose: to assess some uncertain venture, ask yourself how it will affect you in one world only -- namely the one in which you live -- across time," Gell-Mann continued.

"The first perspective -- considering all parallel worlds -- is the one adopted by mainstream economics," explained Gell-Mann. "The second perspective -- what happens in our world across time -- is the one we explore and that hasn't been fully appreciated in economics so far."
The real impact of this second perspective comes from acknowledging the omission of the key concept of time from previous treatments. "We have some 350 years of economic theory involving randomness in one way only -- by considering parallel worlds," said Peters. "What happens when we switch perspectives is astonishing. Many of the open key problems in economic theory have an elegant solution within our framework."

In terms of applications for their work, its key concept can be used "to derive an entire economic formalism," said Peters. In their article, Peters and Gell-Mann explore the evaluation of a gamble. For example, is this gamble better than that gamble? This is the fundamental problem in economics. And from a conceptually different solution there follows a complete new formalism.
They put it to the test after their friend Ken Arrow -- an economist who was the joint winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences with John Hicks in 1972 -- suggested applying the technique to insurance contracts. "Does our perspective predict or explain the existence of a large insurance market? It does -- unlike general competitive equilibrium theory, which is the current dominant formalism," Peters said.

And so a different meaning of risk emerges -- taking too much risk is not only psychologically uncomfortable but also leads to real dollar losses. "Good risk management really drives performance over time," Peters added. "This is important in the current rethinking of risk controls and financial market infrastructure."

This concept reaches far beyond this realm and into all major branches of economics. "It turns out that the difference between how individual wealth behaves across parallel worlds and how it behaves over time quantifies how wealth inequality changes," explained Peters. "It also enables refining the notion of efficient markets and solving the equity premium puzzle."

One historically important application is the solution of the 303-year-old St. Petersburg paradox, which involves a gamble played by flipping a coin until it comes up tails and the total number of flips, n, determines the prize, which equals $2 to the nth power. "The expected prize diverges -- it doesn't exist," Peters elaborated. "This gamble, suggested by Nicholas Bernoulli, can be viewed as the first rebellion against the dominance of the expectation value -- that average across parallel worlds -- that was established in the second half of the 17th century."

What's the next step for their work? "We're very keen to develop fully the implications for welfare economics and questions of economic inequality. This is a sensitive subject that needs to be dealt with carefully, including empirical work," noted Peters. "Much is being done behind the scenes -- since this is a conceptually different way of doing things, communication is a challenge, and our work has been difficult to publish in mainstream economics journals."

Their results described in Chaos are easily generalized, which is necessary to reinterpret the full formalism. But it "may not add very much in practical terms, and it gets a little technical." So that's a future "to-do item" for Peters and Gell-Mann.

"Our Chaos paper is a recipe for approaching a wide range of problems," said Peters. "So we're now going through the entire formalism with our collaborators to see where else our perspective is useful.""
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #128 on: February 06, 2016, 12:17:37 AM »
The Peters and Gell-Mann (2016) reference makes it very clear that most humans (even most experts) have a very weak intuitive understanding of their own ignorance (which results in a poor understanding of gambles/risk).  Instead of truly understanding their ignorance (and consequently their risks), most people prefer to cling to preconceived/egotistical concepts (mental constructs) that are fed/fueled by positive reinforcement from the majority of people around them; thereby maintaining an insurance policy against being wrong (due to ignorance) because the majority (power base) is also wrong so the individual impact is reduced.  In this way George W. Bush could attract Tea Party support by using coded language; and when sometime "unexpectedly" goes wrong, like the 07-08 financial meltdown that Peters & Gell-Mann are specifically considering, then they just say "Who would have thought?", and they stabilize the banks at tax payer's expense (a clear moral hazard).

In this same way AR5's adoption of a Carbon Budget to stay below a 2C increase, also uses majority (power based) politics to cloud our true climate change risks; while the rich/powerful again apply moral hazard to reduce the impact on themselves by transfer risk on to the poor/weak.  Numerous articles cite how at CoP21 the rich/powerful controlled/orchestrated the content of the Paris Pact to maintain the 2C target, while poorer countries barely got the 1.5C target mentioned as a "stretch" goal.  Furthermore, the UN representatives implied that their "plan" would limit the temperature increase to 2.7C by taking advanced credit for future reductions not yet negotiated but currently envisioned, while ignoring such advanced credit would project an increase of about 3.75C (using their own ESLD procedures).

The following bullet points reasons why scientists are supporting the moral hazard of the powerful by clouding our true situation thus allowing the rich to continue gambling knowing that their potential losses will be cushioned by the masses:

- Use of TCR instead of ECS.
- Use of an ECS (3C) that does not use cutting-edge-science (4C).
- Use of ECS instead of effective ECS based on cutting-edge paleo-evidence (4.35C).
- Reported observed GMST values generally not base-lined to 1750 (this could be as much as +0.06 from a 1880-1909 baseline).
- Use of linear corrections for decadal feedbacks.
- Under accounting for ocean heat, anthropogenic & natural aerosols.
- Projections using 50%CL (see first [showing the initial pdf] & second [showing the final 50%CL estimate, & a portion of the final pdf] attached images).
- Measurement using 50% CL values (see third attached image [with a 1951-80 baseline]).
- Anthropogenic radiative forcing scenarios have been overly optimistic.
- Omission of feedback mechanisms with lower than 95%CL from climate models.
- Use of linear models instead of nonlinear reality.
- Use of too high of a rate of discount in damage models
- Sensitivity of damage due to temperature increase (say due to WAIS collapse).
- Use of GWP 100 instead of GWP10 for methane in calculating CO₂ equivalents.
- Discounting of masking factors such as: temporary surge in plant growth, volcanoes, etc.
- Discounting of possible acceleration of slow response feedbacks, such as: WAIS albedo, rainfall on snow, clathrate gun hypothesis, permafrost degradation models, etc.
- Discounting of ocean degradation, such as: plankton, local anaerobic conditions, etc.
- Discounting of forest degradation, such as: carbon cycle sensitivity assumed to be too low.
- Discounting of Earth system state conditions, including: Antarctic ozone hole, ENSO phase, North Atlantic & North Pacific synchronization; PDO phase, etc.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2016, 06:28:02 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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sidd

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #129 on: February 06, 2016, 05:41:51 AM »
" ..., like the 07-08 financial meltdown that Peters & Gell-Mann are specifically considering, ..."

The paper does not specifically mention the crisis of 2008, but they do have some unkind things to say about economists ... although they are kinder than they might have been.

" Economics treats randomness in a purely measure-theoretic way: possible outcomes are given weights (measures or probabilities), and the overall quality of a gamble is a weighted average over outcomes, as if all possibilities were materializing simultaneously with different degrees of reality."
...
we argue that a dynamic is needed in addition to the random variable, turning the gamble into a stochastic process. Dynamics means repetition, and requiring the specification of a dynamic is requiring the admission that we live through time, not in a superverse of parallel worlds with which we can share resources.

  Gambles are often treated in economics as so-called one-shot games, meaning that they are not part of any dynamic and are assumed to reside outside of time, an assumption that is difficult to describe: “it’s more or less impossible to consider any gamble as happening outside of time” [Ref. 12, p. 3]. The one-shot setup seems ill-conceived to us, and the methods we propose produce little insight into the situations it may represent. It is ill-conceived because any gamble affects what we may be able to do after the gamble. If we lose our house, we cannot bet the house again. The typical decision problem only makes sense in the context of a notion of irreversible time and dynamics—we cannot go back in time after the gamble, and our future will be affected by the decisions we make today. One situation that may be represented by a one-shot game is a bet on a coin toss after which the player (who does not believe in an afterlife) will drop dead. Our methods are not developed for such a-typical cases."


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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #130 on: February 06, 2016, 06:41:38 PM »
The paper does not specifically mention the crisis of 2008, but they do have some unkind things to say about economists ... although they are kinder than they might have been.


Thanks, I read too much into the Newswise commentary.

http://www.newswise.com/articles/exploring-gambles-reveals-foundational-difficulty-behind-economic-theory-and-a-solution

While the point that I was trying to make is that moral hazard expands to fill the space created by ignorance and uncertainty, and thus the best way to put this evil genie back into its bottle is by using better understanding and analysis of a constantly changing/dynamic world, much as Peters & Gell-Mann have done in their improvements to the theories of gambles.
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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #131 on: February 12, 2016, 03:28:43 AM »
The linked reference provides evidence supporting the hypothesis that the belief in all-knowing vengeful gods (apparently including some Buddhist traditions) helped promote cooperation between humans, which in turn allowed for the development of complex societies.  While this is one interpretation, I note that in the Holoborg Intrepretation (which is related to Vispassana mindfulness) it is not all-knowing vengeful gods that leads to amplified human cooperation, but rather Metta (loving kindness) develops from an understanding that there is no time, and that our understanding of reality is causes by a dynamic exchange of information by free will.  Thus in the Holoborg Interpretation suffering arises in the moment ultimately due to ignorance of Nibbana; so enlightened individuals realize that they are actually hurting themselves when they cause their own actions to hurt others.

Benjamin Grant Purzycki, Coren Apicella, Quentin D. Atkinson, Emma Cohen, Rita Anne McNamara, Aiyana K. Willard, Dimitris Xygalatas, Ara Norenzayan & Joseph Henrich (2016), "Moralistic gods, supernatural punishment and the expansion of human sociality", Nature, doi:10.1038/nature16980

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature16980.html

Abstract: "Since the origins of agriculture, the scale of human cooperation and societal complexity has dramatically expanded. This fact challenges standard evolutionary explanations of prosociality because well-studied mechanisms of cooperation based on genetic relatedness, reciprocity and partner choice falter as people increasingly engage in fleeting transactions with genetically unrelated strangers in large anonymous groups. To explain this rapid expansion of prosociality, researchers have proposed several mechanisms. Here we focus on one key hypothesis: cognitive representations of gods as increasingly knowledgeable and punitive, and who sanction violators of interpersonal social norms, foster and sustain the expansion of cooperation, trust and fairness towards co-religionist strangers. We tested this hypothesis using extensive ethnographic interviews and two behavioural games designed to measure impartial rule-following among people (n = 591, observations = 35,400) from eight diverse communities from around the world: (1) inland Tanna, Vanuatu; (2) coastal Tanna, Vanuatu; (3) Yasawa, Fiji; (4) Lovu, Fiji; (5) Pesqueiro, Brazil; (6) Pointe aux Piments, Mauritius; (7) the Tyva Republic (Siberia), Russia; and (8) Hadzaland, Tanzania. Participants reported adherence to a wide array of world religious traditions including Christianity, Hinduism and Buddhism, as well as notably diverse local traditions, including animism and ancestor worship. Holding a range of relevant variables constant, the higher participants rated their moralistic gods as punitive and knowledgeable about human thoughts and actions, the more coins they allocated to geographically distant co-religionist strangers relative to both themselves and local co-religionists. Our results support the hypothesis that beliefs in moralistic, punitive and knowing gods increase impartial behaviour towards distant co-religionists, and therefore can contribute to the expansion of prosociality."

See also:
http://news.discovery.com/history/religion/fear-of-vengeful-gods-may-have-helped-societies-expand-160211.htm

Extract: "Belief in an all-seeing punitive god motivates people to be more charitable towards strangers outside their own family and community, particularly to those of similar beliefs, researchers have found."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

sidd

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #132 on: February 12, 2016, 05:27:28 AM »
Purzycki brings to mind the thesis by Jaynes on the origins of consiousness from the breakdown of the bicameral mind. But i suppose Jaynes is no longer fashionable ...


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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #133 on: February 16, 2016, 09:51:58 AM »
The linked article focuses on AI as viewed by Stephen Gold, the CMO and VP of Business Development and Partner Programs at IBM Watson.  The extract focuses on his 5 top AI projections from 2016 to 2018:

http://singularityhub.com/2016/02/15/where-artificial-intelligence-is-now-and-whats-just-around-the-corner/

Extract: ""It's amazing," said Gold.  "For 50 years, we've ideated about this idea of artificial intelligence. But it's only been in the last few years that we've seen a fundamental transformation in this technology."

Anticipated Top AI Breakthroughs: 2016 – 2018
Here are Gold's predictions for the most exciting, disruptive developments coming in AI in the next three years. As entrepreneurs and investors, these are the areas you should be focusing on, as the business opportunities are tremendous.

1. Next-gen A.I. systems will beat the Turing Test
Alan Turing created the Turing Test over half a century ago as a way to determine a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior indistinguishable from that of a human.
Loosely, if an artificial system passed the Turing Test, it could be considered "AI."
Gold believes, "that for all practical purposes, these systems will pass the Turing Test" in the next three-year period.
Perhaps more importantly, if it does, this event will accelerate the conversation about the proper use of these technologies and their applications.

2. All five human senses (yes, including taste, smell and touch) will become part of the normal computing experience.
AIs will begin to sense and use all five senses. "The sense of touch, smell, and hearing will become prominent in the use of AI," explained Gold. "It will begin to process all that additional incremental information."
When applied to our computing experience, we will engage in a much more intuitive and natural ecosystem that appeals to all of our senses.

3. Solving big problems: detect and deter terrorism, manage global climate change.
AI will help solve some of society's most daunting challenges.
Gold continues, "We've discussed AI's impact on healthcare. We're already seeing this technology being deployed in governments to assist in the understanding and preemptive discovery of terrorist activity."
We'll see revolutions in how we manage climate change, redesign and democratize education, make scientific discoveries, leverage energy resources, and develop solutions to difficult problems.

4. Leverage ALL health data (genomic, phenotypic, social) to redefine the practice of medicine.
"I think AI's effect on healthcare will be far more pervasive and far quicker than anyone anticipates," says Gold. "Even today, AI/machine learning is being used in oncology to identify optimal treatment patterns."
But it goes far beyond this. AI is being used to match clinical trials with patients, drive robotic surgeons, read radiological findings and analyze genomic sequences.

5. AI will be woven into the very fabric of our lives — physically and virtually.
Ultimately, during the AI revolution taking place in the next three years, AIs will be integrated into everything around us, combining sensors and networks and making all systems "smart."
AIs will push forward the ideas of transparency, of seamless interaction with devices and information, making everything personalized and easy to use. We'll be able to harness that sensor data and put it into an actionable form, at the moment when we need to make a decision."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #134 on: February 16, 2016, 04:21:32 PM »
The linked The Guardian article focuses on GOOGLE's AI genius Demis Hassabis.  Hassabris is working on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and he believes a meta-solution combining AGI with human interface will soon (a couple of decades or less) be able to tackle wicked problems like climate change:

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/feb/16/demis-hassabis-artificial-intelligence-deepmind-alphago

Extract: "Hassabis, on the other hand, is taking his inspiration from the human brain and attempting to build the first “general-purpose learning machine”: a single set of flexible, adaptive algorithms that can learn – in the same way biological systems do – how to master any task from scratch, using nothing more than raw data.

This is artificial general intelligence (AGI), with the emphasis on “general”. In his vision of the future, super-smart machines will work in tandem with human experts to potentially solve anything. “Cancer, climate change, energy, genomics, macroeconomics, financial systems, physics: many of the systems we would like to master are getting so complex,” he argues. “There’s such an information overload that it’s becoming difficult for even the smartest humans to master it in their lifetimes. How do we sift through this deluge of data to find the right insights? One way of thinking of AGI is as a process that will automatically convert unstructured information into actionable knowledge. What we’re working on is potentially a meta-solution to any problem.”

Since their meeting, Hassabis points out, Hawking has not mentioned “anything inflammatory about AI” in the press; most surprisingly, in his BBC Reith lectures last month, he did not include artificial intelligence in his list of putative threats to humanity. “Maybe it helped, hearing more about the practicalities; more about the actual systems we might build and the checks and controls we can have on those,” Hassabis ventures."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #135 on: February 18, 2016, 09:44:40 AM »
Now when the collapse comes, AI will last essentially forever:

http://mashable.com/2016/02/16/superman-memory-crystal/#JznWtHfr6uqM

Extract: "The new technology, dubbed "Superman memory crystal," uses lasers and nanostructures to record huge amounts of data onto tiny glass disks. The research, which is being presented at a conference in San Francisco this week, could allow people to preserve data and documents for billions of years, scientists say.
...
Perhaps the most intriguing part of the technology is that its creators promise the disks will have a "virtually unlimited" lifetime, if stored at room temperature (they estimate the disks will survive up to 13.8 billion years at 190 degrees Celsius.)
...
"This technology can secure the last evidence of our civilisation: all we’ve learnt will not be forgotten,” Professor Peter Kazansky said in a statement."
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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #136 on: February 18, 2016, 01:30:15 PM »
But what if all the crystal disk readers are broken and new ones are no longer produced? It's like the can and can opener canundrum.  ;) ;D
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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #137 on: February 18, 2016, 05:38:16 PM »
But what if all the crystal disk readers are broken and new ones are no longer produced? It's like the can and can opener canundrum.  ;) ;D


Neven,
Good point; however, I am concerned that the carbon based units that you are depending on may experience difficulties when food and water run-out and warfare becomes common place.  However, while per the first linked article, the Superman crystals use 5D data storage by using five different dimensions of the nanostructure (height, length, width, orientation and position); the linked reference (& second linked article) discusses how nanoparticles can be used to generate multicolored holographic memories.  Holographic memory units contain all of the information in each part of the unit so even if a holographic superman crystal (say 6 or 7D) were shattered, all of the information would remain in each of the fragments in a degraded (but recoverable) form ;):

http://www.wcvb.com/money/new-superman-crystals-can-store-data-for-billions-of-years/38035818

•   Extract: "Each disc can hold up to 360 terabytes of data -- the equivalent of 22,500 basic iPhones.
The wizardry involved is invisible to the human eye. The scientists use a sophisticated laser to encode the information into minuscule formations, known as nanostructures, inside fused quartz.
The structures alter the way light travels through the glass, allowing the data to be read by special optical devices.
The researchers call the data storage 5D, because the information is translated into five different dimensions of the nanostructures — their height, length, width, orientation and position."


Yunuen Montelongo, Jaime Oscar Tenorio-Pearl, Calum Williams, Shuang Zhang, William Ireland Milne, and Timothy David Wilkinson (September 2, 2014), "Plasmonic nanoparticle scattering for color holograms", PNAS, vol. 111 no. 35, 12679–12683, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1405262111


http://www.pnas.org/content/111/35/12679.abstract

Significance: "In this work, we demonstrate a multicolor hologram based on plasmonic scattering of nanoparticles that is capable of encoding more information than the spatial bandwidth dictates. This device is designed based on the fundamental concept of diffraction produced by the scattering of arrays of nanoparticles. Hence, when multiple arrays of plasmonic nanoparticles are multiplexed without coupling, they carry independent information such as polarization and wavelength to the far field. The device shown is unique because, to our knowledge, this is the first multichannel diffractive element produced from a single thin film that simultaneously controls two wavelengths in-plane and within subwavelength distances. These results will lead to a new range of applications in diffractive optics, information storage, and 3D displays."

Abstract: "This work presents an original approach to create holograms based on the optical scattering of plasmonic nanoparticles. By analogy to the diffraction produced by the scattering of atoms in X-ray crystallography, we show that plasmonic nanoparticles can produce a wave-front reconstruction when they are sampled on a diffractive plane. By applying this method, all of the scattering characteristics of the nanoparticles are transferred to the reconstructed field. Hence, we demonstrate that a narrow-band reconstruction can be achieved for direct white light illumination on an array of plasmonic nanoparticles. Furthermore, multicolor capabilities are shown with minimal cross-talk by multiplexing different plasmonic nanoparticles at subwavelength distances. The holograms were fabricated from a single subwavelength thin film of silver and demonstrate that the total amount of binary information stored in the plane can exceed the limits of diffraction and that this wavelength modulation can be detected optically in the far field."

See also:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/nanoclast/semiconductors/memory/nanoparticles-enable-new-levels-of-holographic-optical-data-storage-

Extract: "In the device, each nanoparticle scatters light into varying colors depending on its size and shape. The scattered light from all the nanoparticles interacts and combines with each other to produce an image.
Among some of the unusual effects that can be produced by this device is its ability to display different images when illuminated with different color light and its ability to produce a multi-color image when multiple light sources are focused on it.
“This hologram may find a wide range of applications in the area of displays, optical data storage, and sensors,” said PhD student Calum Williams, a co-author of the paper. “However, scalable approaches are needed to fulfill the potential of this technology.”"

Very best,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #138 on: February 20, 2016, 07:59:30 PM »
I have pointed-out elsewhere in this forum that the primary reason for society's poor handling of the climate change problem is our collection inability to see beyond our own ignorance.  Furthermore, in this thread I have touched on mindfulness approaches to better address the problems caused by such ignorance.  However, I have not yet clearly connected my logic on such traditional mindfulness approaches with my points about how AI (or better AW) could interface with humans to better address climate change as a "wick problem".  In particular, in this post I plan to illustrate how an AI/AW-human interface can improve the use of inductive logic to better address climate change.

In this regards, I start by paraphrasing that: "Induction is the glory of science but the scandal of philosophy", where philosophy is one example of the class of "wicked problems" such as climate change.  Second, I point-out that mindfulness techniques use the mind/body connection to create a real-time feedback loop that can be used to reduce the modeling errors and ignorance of one's mind in order to better understand the illusion of ego and the value of cooperation to improve both individual & societal happiness (& sustainability), by reducing the moral hazard associated with the use of inductive logic.  Lastly, I point-out that a AI/human connection could function in a fashion very similar to the well (scientifically) documented mind/body connection, in order to ground human inductive intuition in the reality of facts (accessible by AI), just as bodily sensations better ground the mind in the reality of the moment, thus allowing for better understanding and reduced ignorance.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #139 on: February 22, 2016, 11:09:49 AM »
The linked articles indicate that new experiments support David Bohm's "holographic paradigm" (including Implicate order and explicate order) and string theories "holographic principle", both of which are implicit within the Holoberg Interpretation presented in this thread.

http://www.councilchronicle.com/quantum-oddities-orderly-universe/24165/

Extract: "Though we are at peace with the idea that the quantum world is dominated by randomness, recently spotted quantum oddities may hint at an orderly universe. Researchers believe that quantum mechanics may be the key to proving that the Universe is interconnected after all.
The idea belongs to an American theoretical physicist called David Bohm who suggested several decades ago that despite quantum physics’ weirdness, the reality behind it is astonishingly orderly. We fail to perceive this reality as it is because we lack the proper understanding of how quantum physics really works, Bohm argued.

Still, in the early 90s an experiment dubbed ESSW dismissed Bohm’s view of the quantum world. The experiment discovered so called ‘surreal trajectories’ in photons. Yet, recently a group of researchers conducted by Steinberg repeated the experiment and found that Bohm may be right after all.
Scientists learned that entangled photons could influence one another by changing polarization. In the experiment, a photon traveling through an apparatus at record speeds was able to influence its partner’s polarization from a great distance. In fact the changes in polarization observed in the still photon reflected the moving photon’s trajectories, despite the apparently hazardous nature of the latter’s journey.
The recent experiments have shown that the ESSW analysis in the 90s might have got things wrong because the detector used to measure photons’ trajectories was unreliable on a quantum scale."

See also:
http://www.ibtimes.com/quantum-weirdness-gives-way-intuitive-behavior-new-experiment-2316822

Extract: "Now, a new version of the experiment, conducted by Steinberg’s team to incorporate the effect of entanglement, has demonstrated that far from “probabilistic smears,” particles at the quantum level can be seen as behaving something akin to billiard balls rolling along a table, and that the surreal behavior observed in the previous experiment is, in fact, caused by the “spooky” influence of the other particle.
As the Copenhagen interpretation underscores, the standard interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that the inherent uncertainty in measuring a subatomic particle’s position and momentum means that there is no real trajectory between the light source and the screen. The best scientists can hope to do is to calculate a “wave function” that shows the odds of the photon being in any one place at any given time.
The latest experiment, however, sought to test, and provide evidence for, a contrarian and more intuitive interpretation, known as the De Broglie-Bohm theory, which says that the photons do have real trajectories, and that their paths are governed by a “pilot wave” upon which these particles ride."

See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implicate_and_explicate_order

Extract: "Implicate order and explicate order are ontological concepts for quantum theory coined by theoretical physicist David Bohm during the early 1980s. They are used to describe two different frameworks for understanding the same phenomenon or aspect of reality. In particular, the concepts were developed in order to explain the bizarre behavior of subatomic particles – behavior difficult to explain by quantum physics.
In his book Wholeness and the Implicate Order, Bohm uses these notions to describe how the same phenomenon might look different, or might be characterized by different principal factors, in different contexts such as at different scales.[1] The implicate order, also referred to as the "enfolded" order, is seen as a deeper and more fundamental order of reality. In contrast, the explicate or "unfolded" order include the abstractions that humans normally perceive. As he writes:
In the enfolded [or implicate] order, space and time are no longer the dominant factors determining the relationships of dependence or independence of different elements. Rather, an entirely different sort of basic connection of elements is possible, from which our ordinary notions of space and time, along with those of separately existent material particles, are abstracted as forms derived from the deeper order. These ordinary notions in fact appear in what is called the "explicate" or "unfolded" order, which is a special and distinguished form contained within the general totality of all the implicate orders (Bohm 1980, p. xv).
….
The implicate order represents the proposal of a general metaphysical concept in terms of which it is claimed that matter and consciousness might both be understood, in the sense that it is proposed that both matter and consciousness: (i) enfold the structure of the whole within each region, and (ii) involve continuous processes of enfoldment and unfoldment. For example, in the case of matter, entities such as atoms may represent continuous enfoldment and unfoldment which manifests as a relatively stable and autonomous entity that can be observed to follow a relatively well-defined path in space-time. In the case of consciousness, Bohm pointed toward evidence presented by Karl Pribram that memories may be enfolded within every region of the brain rather than being localized (for example in particular regions of the brain, cells, or atoms).

Bohm also claimed that "as with consciousness, each moment has a certain explicate order, and in addition it enfolds all the others, though in its own way. So the relationship of each moment in the whole to all the others is implied by its total content: the way in which it 'holds' all the others enfolded within it". Bohm characterises consciousness as a process in which at each moment, content that was previously implicate is presently explicate, and content which was previously explicate has become implicate.

Bohm employed the hologram as a means of characterising implicate order, noting that each region of a photographic plate in which a hologram is observable contains within it the whole three-dimensional image, which can be viewed from a range of perspectives. That is, each region contains a whole and undivided image."


See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holonomic_brain_theory

and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holographic_principle

Extract: "The physical universe is widely seen to be composed of "matter" and "energy". In his 2003 article published in Scientific American magazine, Jacob Bekenstein summarized a current trend started by John Archibald Wheeler, which suggests scientists may "regard the physical world as made of information, with energy and matter as incidentals." Bekenstein asks "Could we, as William Blake memorably penned, 'see a world in a grain of sand,' or is that idea no more than 'poetic license,'"referring to the holographic principle.
Bekenstein's topical overview "A Tale of Two Entropies" describes potentially profound implications of Wheeler's trend, in part by noting a previously unexpected connection between the world of information theory and classical physics. This connection was first described shortly after the seminal 1948 papers of American applied mathematician Claude E. Shannon introduced today's most widely used measure of information content, now known as Shannon entropy. As an objective measure of the quantity of information, Shannon entropy has been enormously useful, as the design of all modern communications and data storage devices, from cellular phones to modems to hard disk drives and DVDs, rely on Shannon entropy."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #140 on: February 22, 2016, 04:24:15 PM »
The following linked reference is the paper discussed in my last post:

Dylan H. Mahler, Lee Rozema, Kent Fisher, Lydia Vermeyden, Kevin J. Resch, Howard M. Wiseman and Aephraim Steinberg (19 Feb 2016), "Experimental nonlocal and surreal Bohmian trajectories", Science Advances, Vol. 2, no. 2, e1501466, DOI: 10.1126/science.1501466


http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/2/e1501466

Abstract: "Weak measurement allows one to empirically determine a set of average trajectories for an ensemble of quantum particles. However, when two particles are entangled, the trajectories of the first particle can depend nonlocally on the position of the second particle. Moreover, the theory describing these trajectories, called Bohmian mechanics, predicts trajectories that were at first deemed “surreal” when the second particle is used to probe the position of the first particle. We entangle two photons and determine a set of Bohmian trajectories for one of them using weak measurements and postselection. We show that the trajectories seem surreal only if one ignores their manifest nonlocality."

See also:
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/135422/20160222/researchers-demonstrate-quantum-surrealism-heres-what-it-is-in-english.htm

Extract: "Physicist Howard Wiseman of Griffith University, who proposed the experiment, echoed that the results bolstered the pilot-wave interpretation. "[It's] something that's not recognised by a large part of the physics community.""

and

http://www.scienceworldreport.com/articles/37532/20160222/quantum-surrealism-demonstrated-new-study-more-useful-think.htm

Extract: "In this case, the researchers showed that surrealism was a consequence of non-locality, which is that particles were able to influence one another instantaneously at a distance. The "incorrect" predictions of trajectories by the entangled photon were actually a consequence of where in their course the entangled photons were measured.

The findings should help researchers understand quantum physics a bit more. And the interpretation should be helpful in some circumstances to visualize real trajectories."

And,
http://phys.org/news/2016-02-quantum-surrealism.html

Extract: "Steinberg points out that both the standard interpretation of quantum mechanics and the De Broglie-Bohm interpretation are consistent with experimental evidence, and are mathematically equivalent. But it is helpful in some circumstances to visualize real trajectories, rather than wave function collapses, he says."
« Last Edit: February 22, 2016, 04:30:59 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #141 on: February 25, 2016, 05:35:15 PM »
The linked articles discuss work with quantum dot solids - crystals made out of crystals – that could help usher in a new era in electronics:

http://www.i4u.com/2016/02/106069/can-crystals-quantum-dot-solids-usher-new-era-electronics

Abstract: "Nature of communication was revolutionized 60 years ago with the single-crystal silicon wafer, making physicists from Cornell University to think the same feat can be achieved again with the quantum dot solids – crystals made out of crystals.
In a study titled "Charge transport and localization in atomically coherent quantum dot solids" and published in the journal Nature Materials, Tobias Hanrath, associate professor in the Robert Frederick Smith School of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, and graduate student Kevin Whitham, led the research team.
The team created two-dimensional superstructures out of single-crystal building blocks in the process of their experiment, and they explored chemical procedures to synthesize lead-selenium nanocrystals into larger crystals which were ultimately fused together to create atomically-shaped square superlattices."

See also:
http://www.babwnews.com/2016/02/breakthrough-quantum-dot-solids-could-revolutionize-electronics/
and
http://www.rdmag.com/news/2016/02/quantum-dot-solids-generations-silicon-wafer
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #142 on: February 27, 2016, 07:29:45 PM »
The linked Washington Post article discusses six exponential technologies that will accelerate in 2016: AI, Robotics, self-driving cars, virtual reality, internet of things and space:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2016/01/11/these-6-technologies-will-define-2016/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #143 on: February 28, 2016, 06:41:31 PM »
The linked reference discusses an advance in key technology that will likely significantly improve the efficiency of parallel computations in super computers by using Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) to power nanofabricated networks, possibly used in hybrid fashion with conventional and/or quantum super computers:

Dan V. Nicolau, Jr., Mercy Lard, Till Korten, Falco C. M. J. M. van Delft, Malin Persson, Elina Bengtsson, Alf Månsson, Stefan Diez, Heiner Linke and Dan V. Nicolau (Feb 28 2016), "Parallel computation with molecular-motor-propelled agents in nanofabricated networks", PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1510825113

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/02/17/1510825113

Significance: "Electronic computers are extremely powerful at performing a high number of operations at very high speeds, sequentially. However, they struggle with combinatorial tasks that can be solved faster if many operations are performed in parallel. Here, we present proof-of-concept of a parallel computer by solving the specific instance {2, 5, 9} of a classical nondeterministic-polynomial-time complete (“NP-complete”) problem, the subset sum problem. The computer consists of a specifically designed, nanostructured network explored by a large number of molecular-motor-driven, protein filaments. This system is highly energy efficient, thus avoiding the heating issues limiting electronic computers. We discuss the technical advances necessary to solve larger combinatorial problems than existing computation devices, potentially leading to a new way to tackle difficult mathematical problems."

Abstract: "The combinatorial nature of many important mathematical problems, including nondeterministic-polynomial-time (NP)-complete problems, places a severe limitation on the problem size that can be solved with conventional, sequentially operating electronic computers. There have been significant efforts in conceiving parallel-computation approaches in the past, for example: DNA computation, quantum computation, and microfluidics-based computation. However, these approaches have not proven, so far, to be scalable and practical from a fabrication and operational perspective. Here, we report the foundations of an alternative parallel-computation system in which a given combinatorial problem is encoded into a graphical, modular network that is embedded in a nanofabricated planar device. Exploring the network in a parallel fashion using a large number of independent, molecular-motor-propelled agents then solves the mathematical problem. This approach uses orders of magnitude less energy than conventional computers, thus addressing issues related to power consumption and heat dissipation. We provide a proof-of-concept demonstration of such a device by solving, in a parallel fashion, the small instance {2, 5, 9} of the subset sum problem, which is a benchmark NP-complete problem. Finally, we discuss the technical advances necessary to make our system scalable with presently available technology."

See also:
http://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/channels/news/building-living-breathing-supercomputers-259294

Extract: "The substance that provides energy to all the cells in our bodies, Adenosine triphosphate (ATP), may also be able to power the next generation of supercomputers. That is what an international team of researchers led by Prof. Nicolau, the Chair of the Department of Bioengineering at McGill, believe.



Although the model bio supercomputer was able to very efficiently tackle a complex classical mathematical problem by using parallel computing of the kind used by supercomputers, the researchers recognize that there is still a lot of work ahead to move from the model they have created to a full-scale functional computer.
”This would not have been possible without the enthusiasm and hard work of Prof. Linke, who is also co-corresponding author, and his group, Prof. Prof. Månsson and his group - both from Sweden, Prof. Diez and his group from Germany, and Dr. Van Delft from Philips, The Netherlands. Now that this model exists as a way of successfully dealing with a single problem, there are going to be many others who will follow up and try to push it further, using different biological agents, for example,” says Nicolau. “It’s hard to say how soon it will be before we see a full scale bio super-computer. One option for dealing with larger and more complex problems may be to combine our device with a conventional computer to form a hybrid device. Right now we’re working on a variety of ways to push the research further.”"

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #144 on: March 02, 2016, 07:20:56 PM »
In this thread, I have generally discusses what I consider to be possible pro-active adaptation measures; however, the linked reference discusses what I consider to be reactive (e.g. NYC's response to Superstorm Sandy) adaptation measures being taken by global megacities (see attached image), and helps to quantify how insufficient such measures are:

Lucien Georgeson, Mark Maslin, Martyn Poessinouw & Steve Howard (2016), "Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2944


http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2944.html

Abstract: "Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined ‘adaptation economy’, we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city’s gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from £15 million to £1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies."

See also:
http://www.carbonbrief.org/huge-divide-in-spending-on-climate-change-adaptation-across-worlds-megaticities

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #145 on: March 12, 2016, 11:10:14 AM »
Whether you are ready, or not, AI is advancing rapidly as indicated by the linked article on Google's Go-playing AI software "AlphaGo":

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-korea-alphago-20160312-story.html

Extract: "Google's Go-playing software defeated a human champion for the third straight time Saturday to clinch the best-of-five series and establish its superiority in an ancient Chinese game long thought to be the realm of humans.

South Korea's Lee Sedol, one of the world's best Go players, remained winless against AlphaGo, Google DeepMind's artificial intelligence machine, after another close match in Seoul. Despite losing the series, Lee is scheduled to play twice more against AlphaGo, on Sunday and Tuesday.
The highly anticipated showdown between human and machine crushed the pride of Go fans, many of them in Asia, who believed Go would be too complex for machines to master. Some thought it would take at least another decade for computers to beat human Go champions.

Many top Go professionals commented that AlphaGo displayed unorthodox, questionable moves that initially befuddled humans but made sense in hindsight."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Martin Gisser

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #146 on: March 18, 2016, 09:53:24 PM »
What is the intelligence in this Go program? Any strategical plotting or some theory of mind? I guess it's still just specialized algorithmic brute force. Can a Turing machine become intelligent? Can one construct a mechanical philosopher? -- My hunch is you have to go beyond mechanics and build organismic "wetware" to make matter intelligent.

---------------------------------
Haven't been here for a while... Great to see Satipatthana stuff! But methinks the Satipatthana Sutta serves another (mild) example of Eastern reductionist/mechanist thinking. (Something I complained about last year here.)
Just as though a skilled butcher or his apprentice had killed a cow and was seated at the crossroads with it cut up into pieces; so too, a bhikkhu reviews this same body … as consisting of elements thus: ‘In this body there are the earth element, the water element, the fire element, and the air element.’
(MN10:12 http://www.wisdompubs.org/landing/satipatthana-sutta )

(I'm not taking this against Buddhist mind training. It' just a minor unimportant flaw. To the contrary, methinks Buddhist mind trainig can be very helpful in these demanding times, if only to gain the strength of mental guts so to be able to look into the abyss without going mad.)
Why is the earth silent at this destruction? (Martin Heidegger ca. 1937)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #147 on: March 18, 2016, 10:27:02 PM »
What is the intelligence in this Go program? Any strategical plotting or some theory of mind? I guess it's still just specialized algorithmic brute force. Can a Turing machine become intelligent? Can one construct a mechanical philosopher? -- My hunch is you have to go beyond mechanics and build organismic "wetware" to make matter intelligent.

---------------------------------
Haven't been here for a while... Great to see Satipatthana stuff! But methinks the Satipatthana Sutta serves another (mild) example of Eastern reductionist/mechanist thinking. (Something I complained about last year here.)
Just as though a skilled butcher or his apprentice had killed a cow and was seated at the crossroads with it cut up into pieces; so too, a bhikkhu reviews this same body … as consisting of elements thus: ‘In this body there are the earth element, the water element, the fire element, and the air element.’
(MN10:12 http://www.wisdompubs.org/landing/satipatthana-sutta )

(I'm not taking this against Buddhist mind training. It' just a minor unimportant flaw. To the contrary, methinks Buddhist mind trainig can be very helpful in these demanding times, if only to gain the strength of mental guts so to be able to look into the abyss without going mad.)


I do not have time for a more thoughtful post, but I would like to note that it has been my personal experience that people who do not get much (if anything) from Vipassana meditation, it is primarily because they are looking for something special, something "magic" to be revealed by the meditation.  In Vipassana there is no "magic" only what is (i.e. the truth), so in this regards there is no soul that magically creates wet-philosophy that is different than AI created mechanical philosophy.  If you cannot tell the different source of the philosophy (via a Turing test) then what difference does it make where it came from?
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Rubikscube

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #148 on: March 19, 2016, 12:11:17 AM »
What is the intelligence in this Go program? Any strategical plotting or some theory of mind? I guess it's still just specialized algorithmic brute force. Can a Turing machine become intelligent? Can one construct a mechanical philosopher? -- My hunch is you have to go beyond mechanics and build organismic "wetware" to make matter intelligent.

AlphaGo is not a "brute-force" searching program. It applies neural networks and is technically a "deep-learner" who taught itself Go by independently analyzing a database of games as well as playing a vast number of games against itself. This approach is basically about mimicking biological brains, adding features such as short-time memory to a computer program. I did in fact recently have a lengthy argument with a programmer working with neural networks about whether a computer program could beat a selection of the world’s best poker players in a similar competition setup. Insisting it cannot happen anytime soon, though, unfortunately having to concede that it is just a matter about when, and not if, an AI entity will be able to outperform a human being in any given type of work (yes that includes all work related to love and friendship. Considering how easy it is to make a human emotionally attached to something as simple as a stuffed animal by just adding a symmetric, humanoid face with big eyes, I find it is astounding that people can believe otherwise).

The problem with computers and robots is not that they eventually will rebel against their human masters, rather the opposite, a computer does exactly what it is told to do, thus theoretically enabling one person to create for himself a perfect totalitarian singularity (the endgame of pure Darwinism (rebranded libertarianism)).
« Last Edit: March 19, 2016, 02:12:16 AM by Rubikscube »

Martin Gisser

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Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« Reply #149 on: March 19, 2016, 12:48:37 AM »
Thanks, Rubikscube. This sounds at least quasi-intelligent. But I guess the perceptory apparatus (e.g. database scheme) is still custom made. Would be interesting if this machine can easily be re-wired to play chess. (BTW I know of a 3-player chess. That might be a better test than Go. It is not a duel but a triell...)

ASLR, methinks anatta does not imply that a soulless computer could also be intelligent or even wise. (Hmmm...! Perhaps one could say that a computer has an unchanging essence: being isomorphic to a Turing machine...) Anyway, I don't want to debate AI seriously. I just find it counter my intuition. We just have to wait what comes to see who of us is right.
Why is the earth silent at this destruction? (Martin Heidegger ca. 1937)