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Author Topic: Permafrost thaw about to cause catastrophic lake drainage  (Read 3266 times)

Yuha

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Permafrost thaw about to cause catastrophic lake drainage
« on: August 03, 2015, 05:09:26 PM »
Permafrost thaw is expected to cause catastrophic lake drainage and potential debris flow in 2015.
A rapid flow of water and debris is expected in a small creek valley west of Husky Lake, which lies in the Gwich' in Settlement Area (GSA).  The growth of a permafrost thaw slump will likely cause a small lake to drain catastrophically during 2015, resulting in a flash flood and possibly a debris flow. A flash flood could happen at any time during the summer or fall of 2015.




http://www.nwtgeoscience.ca/news/hazard-advisory-valley-west-husky-lake-gwichin-settlement-area

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/a-lake-in-the-northwest-territories-is-about-to-fall-off-a-cliff/article25628207/

Neven

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Re: Permafrost thaw about to cause catastrophic lake drainage
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2015, 05:42:06 PM »
Looks like a great spot for the next Heartland Conference.  ;)
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jai mitchell

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Re: Permafrost thaw about to cause catastrophic lake drainage
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2015, 07:57:55 PM »
Looks like a great spot for the next Heartland Conference.  ;)

funny!

Also when the water releases it will scour away the melted mud surface layers and produce significantly increased thaw at all parts down flow (as well as the lake bed.
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Subjectivist

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Re: Permafrost thaw about to cause catastrophic lake drainage
« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2015, 03:26:28 AM »
Looks like a great spot for the next Heartland Conference.  ;)

funny!

Also when the water releases it will scour away the melted mud surface layers and produce significantly increased thaw at all parts down flow (as well as the lake bed.

It isn't just the scouring either, mud flats are much better at soaking up solar energy that leafy green surface cover.  All the area the mud flows over and darkens will be subject to lower albedo, not just the area actually scoured.

crandles

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Re: Permafrost thaw about to cause catastrophic lake drainage
« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2015, 02:18:43 PM »
"expected to cause catastrophic lake drainage"

Is that catastrophic just in mathematical language or are there important assets down the valley that are likely to be destroyed? If the latter, then I would think someone would pump out the lake water slowly to avoid such effects, so I am tending to think just the former meaning.

Not that I want to imply it will be good, I do think it will be bad but it may not be all that much of a disaster (eg one travellers cabin seems marked as being on edge of risk area and if leaving it open is too risky, closing one cabin doesn't seem like a huge consequence. More permafrost melting from albedo and scouring effects as noted above - not good but is going to happen sometime. There are bigger scale disasters to worry about without fretting about this unless you happen to live near the risk area or are planning to travel through it.

Still interesting though.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Permafrost thaw about to cause catastrophic lake drainage
« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2015, 10:46:39 AM »
Hi Crandles!

Maybe this is just an accessable 'poster boy' for the ongoing impacts we are now beginning to see?

Empty reservoirs don't stand up against raging mud floes on the 6 O'clock News!

We think that many out there are willfully ignorant of the changes the past 3 decades have brought to the Arctic Ocean ( and its ice cover) but ask most folk about the impacts of melting permafrost and all you'll find is blank stares.
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crandles

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Re: Permafrost thaw about to cause catastrophic lake drainage
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2015, 12:39:41 PM »

Maybe this is just an accessable 'poster boy' for the ongoing impacts we are now beginning to see?

Empty reservoirs don't stand up against raging mud floes on the 6 O'clock News!

We think that many out there are willfully ignorant of the changes the past 3 decades have brought to the Arctic Ocean ( and its ice cover) but ask most folk about the impacts of melting permafrost and all you'll find is blank stares.

Maybe, But if it is portrayed as catastrophic then people look at the effects and see no buildings affected a few trees knocked down but that sort of thing has often happened with landslides occurring from time to time, what do they think? Doesn't it just make people think those crazy tree hugging environmentalists are always crying wolf making things out to be catastrophic and therefore they shouldn't be believed?

I am not saying this shouldn't be publicised, but if it is to be publicised to general public (rather than just locals and anyone travelling in area) I think 'catastrophic' description should be clearly explained. For websites aimed at locals and anyone travelling in nearby area then 'catastrophic' seems a useful term to indicate event will be sudden and without warning so no time to get out of the way.

Wilfully ignorant won't believe, believers already believe. Therefore in considering what to publicise, consider what innocently sceptical will think and aim at those innocently sceptical blank stares.