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baileyrorys

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #50 on: May 03, 2016, 08:58:12 PM »
Fire season in Washington, Oregon, Idaho area was pretty bad last year. I certainly hope we can get a break this year.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #51 on: May 04, 2016, 01:50:29 AM »
Alberta, Canada:
Fire jumps the highway, burns homes.  City of Fort McMurray is evacuating.

#CBC reporters confirm homes are now burning in Fort McMurray in Beacon Hill and in the Centenial Trailer Park. #ymm
https://twitter.com/cbccalgary/status/727611087106002944

From her car fleeing the fire. @cbcian speaks to Fort McMurray resident. #ymmfire #ymm
https://twitter.com/patmorrell_cbc/status/727642641043578880

Startling video of the #ymmfire RT @jstuffcocrimlaw: My harrowing drive evacuating #ymm praying for my friends
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/727638901402275842

Breaking: #ymmfire "beyond resources". Too dangerous to put men & aircraft between fire and #ymm @ctvedmonton #yeg
https://twitter.com/jsjamato/status/727583068760870913
« Last Edit: May 04, 2016, 01:58:36 AM by Sigmetnow »
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jdallen

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #52 on: May 04, 2016, 03:07:03 AM »
Wildfire flames whip dangerously close to homes in Alberta
A state of emergency was declared near Fort McMurray in Alberta, Canada, May 1 as a wildfire engulfed parts of the area. According to reports, hundreds of people were forced to evacuate their homes. (Facebook/Brandon Serroul)

At least three wildfires are burning around an Alberta, Canada, town, and video shows the flames approaching businesses, homes and cars — way too close for comfort.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/02/wildfire-flames-whip-dangerously-close-to-homes-in-alberta-video/
The have ordered the evacuation of the entire city, 61,000 people.  Descriptions sound like something out of the apocalypse.
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jdallen

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #53 on: May 04, 2016, 03:08:30 AM »
And while we are at it...

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/03/the-fires-of-climate-change-are-burning-the-himalayas/

We are screwed this year, well and truly.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #54 on: May 04, 2016, 01:29:17 PM »
Alberta, Canada:  Fort McMurray Wildfire: 60,000 Evacuated Over Out-of-Control Blaze
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-60-000-evacuated-over-out-control-blaze-n567371

Ryan Maue: Temps pushed 90°F in northern Alberta on Tuesday, almost to 60ºN latitude
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/727710397910921216
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #55 on: May 04, 2016, 05:04:33 PM »
30,000 Fort McMurray residents forced to flee north as southern routes become impassable.

DrTskoul

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #56 on: May 04, 2016, 05:49:01 PM »
More like 80,000 now.  Also consider this: 87F max temperature at Fort Mc. 52F max New Jersey
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DrTskoul

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #57 on: May 04, 2016, 05:54:49 PM »
Pretty tough situation

“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #58 on: May 04, 2016, 05:55:23 PM »
DrTskoul: note that Shared Humanity indicated 30,000 fled north.  The other 50,000 went south.
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DrTskoul

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #59 on: May 04, 2016, 06:01:59 PM »
DrTskoul: note that Shared Humanity indicated 30,000 fled north.  The other 50,000 went south.

Sth to be said about reading comprehension!! D'OH  :o

Apologies...
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ghoti

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #60 on: May 04, 2016, 06:59:13 PM »
Meanwhile the words "climate change" or "global warming" have been noticeably absent from all media reports of either the record high temperatures Alberta has been experiencing this spring or of the wildfire.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #61 on: May 04, 2016, 07:32:09 PM »
Actually ...
I've noticed several.  Here's one Google reference:
Fort McMurray fires related to the global climate crisis, says Elizabeth ...
www.nationalobserver.com/.../fort-mcmurray-fires-related-global-climat...
1 hour ago - The devastating destruction caused by wildfires in Fort McMurray is a sign of worse things to come if the planet doesn't scale back its ...


My hedge is that I'm not going to say if the National Observer is "mainstream media" or not, and it does use "climate crisis" and not "climate change".
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mati

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #62 on: May 04, 2016, 11:26:48 PM »
my niece had to evacuate, made it south of the city now waiting for a bus to edmonton... very tense evening last night for me for sure.
and so it goes

DrTskoul

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #63 on: May 05, 2016, 12:56:59 AM »
my niece had to evacuate, made it south of the city now waiting for a bus to edmonton... very tense evening last night for me for sure.

Sorry to hear. I hope her house does not suffer any damagevent and that she stays safe.
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ghoti

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #64 on: May 05, 2016, 03:04:33 AM »
Yes Ms May was asked about climate change and the wildfires and her completely mundane factual response caused a huge uproar which became the subject of much main stream reporting. Much of it about whether it is appropriate to acknowledge climate change "at this time" or whether it is politicizing the tragedy.

For example:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elizabeth-may-fort-mcmurray-climate-change-1.3566126

Acknowledging scientific facts is not politicizing but trying to deny them is.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #65 on: May 05, 2016, 07:55:32 PM »
The dash-cam video at the top of this article is nightmarish.

What Canada’s wildfire disaster looks like from Earth and space
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #66 on: May 05, 2016, 08:07:16 PM »

"At least 640,000 barrels per day of crude output is offline, according to Reuters calculations, roughly 16 percent of Canada's crude production. The outage is expected to climb as major players in the region cut production. [O/R]"

Well, I didn't expect the feedback loop of climate change to reduced carbon production to be quite so direct. Anybody else see the Irony in this?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #67 on: May 05, 2016, 08:14:17 PM »
I agree:  this video shows how frightening it must have been (probably Tuesday evening/night - edit: 2 pm Tuesday afternoon driving through the suburb that lost 70% of the houses.).

The dash-cam video at the top of this article is nightmarish.

What Canada’s wildfire disaster looks like from Earth and space
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/05/what-canadas-wildfire-disaster-looks-like-from-earth-and-space/
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 09:54:54 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #68 on: May 05, 2016, 08:44:12 PM »
The Fort McMurray Disaster: Getting Beyond “Is It Climate Change?”
By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters, May 5
We don’t need attribution studies to realize that our struggling firefighting resources must be brought up to speed to match the evolving picture of longer fire seasons and more dangerous fires. A U.S. Forest Service report issued last summer sounded the alarm: “...within a decade, the agency will spend more than two-thirds of its budget to battle ever-increasing fires, while mission-critical programs that can help prevent fires in the first place such as forest restoration and watershed and landscape management will continue to suffer. Meanwhile...these catastrophic blazes are projected to burn twice as many acres by 2050.” It is no small irony that Wednesday, May 4, was International Firefighters Day.

In their deadline coverage of the Fort McMurray event, journalists such as Andrew Freedman (Mashable) have done a laudable job pointing out the complex but real connections between climate change and wildfire. We have much more to learn about exactly why and how the atmosphere is moving in directions that favor devastating fire--but for now, perhaps it’s enough simply to know that the dice are being loaded. Together with the many other threats posed by climate change, this should be more than enough motivation to get serious about emission cuts. The vast and profound effects of human-produced greenhouse gases--from intensified downpours and drought impacts to ocean acidification and sea-level rise--call for a sustained commitment to change that transcends any single disaster, even one as compelling as the nightmare unfolding in Fort McMurray.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/the-fort-mcmurray-disaster-getting-beyond-is-it-climate-change
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #69 on: May 05, 2016, 09:21:07 PM »
INCREASED FOREST FIRES NOT INCLUDED IN CLIMATE MODELS

I expect many here will know this but I recently received a reply from UK Department of Energy and Climate Change which included
 
the models used vary in what they include, and some feedbacks are absent as the understanding and modelling of these is not yet advanced enough to include. From those you raise, this applies to melting permafrost emissions, forest fires and wetlands decomposition.

http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/carbon-budgets-a-straightforward-answer-from-decc

P.S. I hope the rain comes soon in Alberta.
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Csnavywx

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #70 on: May 06, 2016, 03:39:38 AM »
So, is Fort McMurray the first city lost to climate change?

sidd

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #71 on: May 06, 2016, 06:43:33 AM »
climate change ?  that might be Mohenjo Daro/Harappa

anthro climate change ? the same perhaps, Ruddiman is right.

DoomInTheUK

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #72 on: May 06, 2016, 01:57:42 PM »
I would expect that a wildfire heading towards the open pit that is a the tar sands oil production of Suncor would concentrate their minds.  :o

Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #73 on: May 06, 2016, 09:56:00 PM »
How big is the Fort McMurray wildfire? How #ymm fire's size compares to London, NYC & Toronto

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/06/world/canada-fire-city-comparison/index.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #74 on: May 07, 2016, 02:48:26 AM »
CBC Nova Scotia: Wow. #FortMcMurray, before and after [GIF] via @bahadorz #ymmfire #ymm #fortmacfire #fortmac
https://twitter.com/cbcns/status/728645448181919744
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LRC1962

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #75 on: May 07, 2016, 04:29:16 AM »

P.S. I hope the rain comes soon in Alberta.
Alberta water comes from snow melt. It is on the dry side of the mountains. The only time it gets a lot of rain is when a blocking front forces a wet system back into the mountains.
 

"At least 640,000 barrels per day of crude output is offline, according to Reuters calculations, roughly 16 percent of Canada's crude production. The outage is expected to climb as major players in the region cut production. [O/R]"

Well, I didn't expect the feedback loop of climate change to reduced carbon production to be quite so direct. Anybody else see the Irony in this?
That is provided that the fire does not get deep into the ground and start burning the tar sands, then things could get much worse on the GHG front as far as that area is concerned.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #76 on: May 07, 2016, 03:03:03 PM »
Largest in the world, this new Boeing 747 Global Supertanker can fly anywhere on the planet with one fuel stop, allowing it to fight off-shore fires as well as fires in remote areas.  It can carry two different fire suppressants at once, and add air to the mix, so a drop causes less damage.

Video:
http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/video/firefighting-airplane-global-supertanker-38911479
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #77 on: May 07, 2016, 04:18:04 PM »
That is provided that the fire does not get deep into the ground and start burning the tar sands, then things could get much worse on the GHG front as far as that area is concerned.
Per the linked Scribbler article: "Shift in the Wind May Push Gargantuan Fort McMurray Fire Toward Tar Sands Facilities on Saturday"

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/06/shift-in-the-wind-may-push-gargantuan-fort-mcmurray-fire-toward-tar-sands-facilities-on-saturday/
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DrTskoul

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #78 on: May 07, 2016, 04:29:30 PM »

P.S. I hope the rain comes soon in Alberta.

Most oil sands are at least 40 feet deep...
Alberta water comes from snow melt. It is on the dry side of the mountains. The only time it gets a lot of rain is when a blocking front forces a wet system back into the mountains.
 

"At least 640,000 barrels per day of crude output is offline, according to Reuters calculations, roughly 16 percent of Canada's crude production. The outage is expected to climb as major players in the region cut production. [O/R]"

Well, I didn't expect the feedback loop of climate change to reduced carbon production to be quite so direct. Anybody else see the Irony in this?
That is provided that the fire does not get deep into the ground and start burning the tar sands, then things could get much worse on the GHG front as far as that area is concerned.
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #79 on: May 08, 2016, 03:17:01 PM »
A GIF worth 1,000 words:
How the ForMacFire spread, up to and including [Saturday]:
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/729077106202681345


Edit:
Monster Canada Wildfire Continues to Grow, Could Reach Saskatchewan
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/monster-canada-wildfire-continues-grow-people-flee-safety-n570046
« Last Edit: May 08, 2016, 03:51:07 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #80 on: May 08, 2016, 04:06:46 PM »
Emergency Evacuation notice issed last night for northern Saskatchewan.

@AlertOntario:  THE FIRE IS IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN PLEASE BEGIN PREPARING FOR EVACUATION. PACK ESSENTIALS
https://twitter.com/alertontario/status/729077180135821312

@AlertOntario:  ALERT fire is in Northern SASK please prepare to evacuate, the fire has doubled in size in just 24 hours and is expected to double
https://twitter.com/alertontario/status/729080915327102976

@AlertOntario:  Fires are in the North Of Saskatchewan for your safety please start leaving the North ASAP. Pack all essentials now
https://twitter.com/alertontario/status/729090723765719041
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #81 on: May 08, 2016, 06:59:51 PM »
 :'(

@Cmdr_Hadfield:  A very useful up-to-the-minute map of Fort McMurray, using space-based images http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire.  Thanks @google
https://twitter.com/cmdr_hadfield/status/729333989794848768

http://www.google.org/crisismap/2016-fort-mcmurray-fire
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LRC1962

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #82 on: May 08, 2016, 07:42:12 PM »
For those who like good info resources, this is a great site for Canada. http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fm3?type=fwih
Use the different links on the upper left side to see what the codings mean.
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mati

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #83 on: May 08, 2016, 09:08:24 PM »
compilation map showing structures that were burnt in fort mc

https://medium.com/@mcmurraymap/damage-assessment-may-5th-2016-eb91d5efe45#.o8st14nns
and so it goes

wili

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #84 on: May 08, 2016, 09:39:53 PM »
http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-expected-to-stretch-more-than-2000-square-kilometres-sunday

Good News: The wildfire hasn't grown as much as feared
“We expect to hold the fire,” said Chad Morison with Alberta Wildfire, estimating the size at just 161,000 hectares [~= 620 sq miles ] at noon Sunday, much smaller than previously expected. On Saturday, fire officials said they expected it to hit 200,000 hectares by midnight.

The fire did not reach the closest Suncor and Syncrude oilsands sites, and the Nexen Long Lake facility appears to have sustained minimal damage. Inside the city, fire crews are still putting out hotspots. They were able to protect most of the city’s critical infrastructure, including its hospital and water treatment facility.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #85 on: May 09, 2016, 12:37:33 PM »
Photos from Astronaut Tim Peake aboard the  International Space Station :  Smoke from #Alberta fires now covering vast areas of North America across to Atlantic coast. #ymmfire
https://twitter.com/astro_timpeake/status/729375208654688257
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Archimid

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #86 on: May 09, 2016, 09:21:48 PM »
Photos from Astronaut Tim Peake aboard the  International Space Station :  Smoke from #Alberta fires now covering vast areas of North America across to Atlantic coast. #ymmfire
https://twitter.com/astro_timpeake/status/729375208654688257

I imagine that should generate some global cooling. I would think that is a lot of solar radiation being blocked. The problem is when the particles fall on snow or ice, raising it's albedo, resulting in increased  interaction of  solar radiation with the surface. I wonder which one is greater.
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #87 on: May 09, 2016, 10:29:02 PM »
Notes on black carbon as a short lived GHG.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/shortlived/shortlived.htm

Also if you want ot read more:

http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/single-project.php?row_id=65207


"Black carbon is a component of fine particulate matter, which has been identified as a leading environmental risk factor for premature death. It is produced from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass burning, particularly from older diesel engines and forest fires. Black carbon warms the atmosphere by absorbing solar radiation, influences cloud formation, and darkens the surface of snow and ice, which accelerates heat absorption and melting. Diesel particulate matter emissions are a major source of black carbon and are also toxic air contaminants that have been regulated and controlled in California for several decades in order to protect public health"

LRC1962

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #88 on: May 10, 2016, 12:04:03 AM »
Black carbon may live as a GHG short time. The thing is when it lands it can live a long time. See Dark Snow.
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LRC1962

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #89 on: May 11, 2016, 04:10:50 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-insurance-rates-1.3573895
Insurance companies forced to fork over billions of dollars to cover damages from the Fort McMurray wildfire will remain financially sound despite their enormous losses, but some homeowners will likely face spikes in their premiums.

"It's quite possible we could see some rate increases, probably regionally," said Jason Mercer, an analyst at Moody's Canada Inc. "Can't imagine it will be wholesale across-the-board rate increases."
Mercer said anyone who lives near a dry forest or somewhere particularly vulnerable to wildfire risks could see their rates spike.

Governments may waffle about things that need to be done to bring about CC, the insurance industry may become the biggest reason CO2 levels will be reigned in. Increasing costs will force about changes that can help drop costs.
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crandles

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #90 on: May 11, 2016, 05:01:36 PM »
Governments may waffle about things that need to be done to bring about CC, the insurance industry may become the biggest reason CO2 levels will be reigned in. Increasing costs will force about changes that can help drop costs.

Increasing insurance rates might have an effect on stopping too much building near high fire risk/flood risks... (or perhaps it is more building get done then people find themselves caught out unable to afford insurance or sell property then building rates perhaps begin to slow)

but how does insurance force limits in CO2 emissions? Higher insurance rates if policyholders flies more than once a year or drives more than 30000 km or something like that? Why? Emissions of any one insurance company's policy holders will be swamped by other people who are not policyholders and any ins co that did that would be undercut by others. Not insure ff industry? That is just cutting out a market opportunity for the insurance cos. So can't see anything like that happening.

Insurance companies like uncorrelated risk which they can mitigate through aggregation and dislike correlated risks like CC. Insurance companies may have to have much higher rates for correlated risk like CC if big events become a lot more frequent or stop insuring against CC related event. Higher rates or withdrawal of cover leaves policyholders uninsured and unhappy and possibly feeling more action on CC is needed but I don't see that that causes insurance to somehow mandate cuts in emissions. Maybe eventual indirect effect of changing opinion on need for more CC action and through that political pressure for more action but this seems a bit indirect.

Perhaps I am missing something?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #91 on: May 11, 2016, 05:05:55 PM »
The linked Scribbler article is entitled: "Massive Wildfires Erupt in Northeast China as Lake Baikal Blazes Ignite"

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/10/massive-wildfires-erupt-in-northeast-china-as-lake-baikal-blazes-ignite/

Extract: "An extreme heatwave and drought in East Asia is now sparking extraordinarily large wildfires in mostly unsettled regions of Northeast China near the Russian border."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #92 on: May 13, 2016, 01:14:27 AM »
Canada wildfire - what are the environmental impacts?
In addition to the estimated $9bn damage to Fort McMurray, ‘the beast’ will affect forests, carbon emissions, air and water pollution and waste.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/11/canada-wildfire-environmental-impacts-fort-mcmurray
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #93 on: May 14, 2016, 04:59:51 PM »
The linked article discusses how the Fort McMurray wildfire will result in many more months of carbon emissions from the associated smoldering peat:

http://www.takepart.com/feature/2016/05/13/fort-mcmurray-fires?cmpid=pt-tw
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #94 on: May 16, 2016, 07:18:30 PM »
After Fort McMurray: where are the world's most fire-prone cities?
Images of the devastated Canadian city show just how destructive fire can be to urban populations. But the risk is greatest in informal settlements, where high population density and low-grade construction can be a deadly combination.
http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/may/16/fort-mcmurray-alberta-canada-worlds-most-fire-prone-cities
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #95 on: May 17, 2016, 05:00:49 AM »
The Fort McMurray wildfire is still spreading:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-wildfire-enbridge-idUSKCN0Y71ZT

Extract: "A massive wildfire burning around the oil sands hub of Fort McMurray was growing and moving rapidly north late on Monday, forcing firefighters to shift their focus to protecting major oil sand facilities north of the city, officials said."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #96 on: May 17, 2016, 07:59:38 PM »
The Fort McMurray wildfire continues to intensify and has now reached at least one tarsand camp:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-oilsands-work-camp-catches-fire-1.3585921

Extract: "The fire in Fort McMurray has hit at least one of the oil camps north of the city after the province ordered new mandatory evacuations for that region Monday night."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #97 on: May 17, 2016, 08:53:38 PM »
Alberta reviews Fort McMurray re-entry plan as flames spread north
The Alberta government is taking a second look at its plan to allow people to return home to Fort McMurray after explosions damaged some homes in the city and a raging wildfire spread north toward oilsands plants.
...
Two explosions within Fort McMurray damaged 10 homes and poor air quality forced staff working to clean the hospital and natural gas utility workers to leave, she said.

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/05/17/news/alberta-reviews-fort-mcmurray-re-entry-plan-flames-spread-north
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #98 on: May 18, 2016, 12:49:40 AM »
Per the linked article, the Fort McMurray wildfire has grown 40% in the past two days:

https://news.vice.com/article/the-fort-mcmurray-fire-has-grown-40-percent-in-two-days
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Wildfires
« Reply #99 on: May 18, 2016, 05:19:49 PM »
Scribbler has another excellent article on the Fort McMurray wildfire:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/17/the-beast-growls-warming-induced-wildfire-again-doubles-in-size-burns-tar-sands-workers-camp/

Extract: "Overall, more than 530,000 hectares have now burned throughout Canada. This total is more than 24 times the amount of land consumed in fires by this time last year. During the 20th Century, large May burn extents of the kind Canada is experiencing during 2016 were unheard of."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson