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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #500 on: February 19, 2016, 07:38:44 PM »
Using the 5 day NSIDC extent values, the anomaly compared to the 81-10 average is now at -1.14 million km2, the largest -ve anomaly since October 25th last year.
We are now lowest on record by 221k.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

pccp82

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #501 on: February 21, 2016, 05:52:37 PM »
i don't know how significant it is in the long run, but Hudson bay on the navy thickness site appears to be in much worse shape than at any point 2012-2015.


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #502 on: February 21, 2016, 06:13:09 PM »
Using data supplied by Wipneus "Snow White" managed to successfully "predict" today's new "lowest ever" CT global sea ice area: 14.306 million square kilometers.

Read all about it (and lots of other "Shock News!") at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/global-sea-ice-area-at-lowest-ever-level/#comment-213525
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #503 on: February 21, 2016, 07:29:51 PM »
To me, it looks like colder air and more northerly winds soon will move to Barents and Kara Sea which should mean that the SIE number will start to rise in a couple of days or so. The question remains if this will be a short period with cold weather or a more systained such.

//LMV

solartim27

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #504 on: February 21, 2016, 07:59:17 PM »
To me, it looks like colder air and more northerly winds soon will move to Barents and Kara Sea
Yes, but....
« Last Edit: February 21, 2016, 08:04:18 PM by solartim27 »
FNORD

magnamentis

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #505 on: February 21, 2016, 09:38:48 PM »
i little fun ( or frustration ) depending :-)

check the following link: https://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/category/antarctic-sea-ice/
which contains the following picture, below the pic you find my reply or in the blog there:



This is my reply:
of course you had to post this quickly today because tomorrow you'd have had to post a new lowest which then could be interpreted as a turnaround.

i don't even expect an immediate turnaround in the south, after El Nino it will probably go up again as compared to this year, latest in 2017, but then even the slowest thinkers are getting aware that this is due to the increasing fresh-water ( non-saline) coming from inland antarctica in ever increased amounts.

i as well forgot my crystal ball LOL but the in not too far a future the turnaround will come to the antarctic with force. i will keep you posted because when i see your bias crumble i know that from then on there is hope.

Buddy

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #506 on: February 21, 2016, 10:15:44 PM »
Quote
Yes, but....

Arctic amplification on FULL THROTTLE this week.   Pretty much touches every main area that is BAD for the Arctic....

NOT going to be a good year for the Arctic ice....and probably not for Greenland... :-[
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #507 on: February 21, 2016, 11:54:15 PM »
Snow cover also not looking so great atm:
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #508 on: February 22, 2016, 04:10:29 AM »
Looks to me like we are continuing the new pattern started since 2013 that has seen greater retention of thicker ice north of Greenland.  This can be seen if you look at the area north of Greenland in the PIOMAS thickness comparison chart.

The area to the north of Ellesmere Island shows all red when compared to the years 2011-2013, the ice is still much thicker than it was during these years of greatest damage to the core stronghold of thickest ice.  If you look at 2016 vs 2015 you can see that there has been little overall change since last year.  The ice right along the coast is thinner, but the ice further away is thicker.  It is interesting to note that once a little away from the Greenland coast there is an area that is red in every single comparison chart.  This is ice that is thicker than the ice in any other year since 2007.

The ice also looks in reasonably good shape compared to recent years along the Siberian and Laptev regions, but does show weaknesses in the Beaufort region.  In my mind these are the most important regions for influencing the summer minimum as these areas see the greatest  variability during the summer melt.  The ice is also quite thin compared to most previous years along the Atlantic sector, although not noticeably thinner than 2012 or 2013.

As this is a comparison chart for all of January the current situation undoubtedly is a little worse as the record mild temperatures have continued into February. 
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #509 on: February 22, 2016, 09:38:29 AM »
Snow cover also not looking so great atm:
A few notes to make living in snow country. Area of snow can be misleading.
A) How thick is it? I suspect most is very thin cover.
B) Where is the frost line? The deeper the frost line the longer the snow will stick around and the slower it takes to melt. Example of a bad situation was one winter many years ago, the snow came before the ground froze. Accumulations that year in that area were 6'+. It had turned cold and the snow cover although was thick was all light snow. Spring came temps went in the 10C+ range with warm winds and it was all gone within a week. Why? the ground never froze all winter. This year has been a very warm winter.
C)When the warmth comes, how high do the temps get and how warm and strong are the winds?
Conditions now in snow country are such that you no longer get the accumulations you used to, except when you get the perfect setup such as last year in the New England states. You no longer get the cold the sets the freezing line low enough to protect what snow falls. And finally when the spring comes the snow goes very fast, and is coming earlier and earlier every year.
On the other hand the big snow fall line is going farther and farther north. That only means the winter air has more moisture in it and the temperatures are climbing. The important part there is that snow does not fall in great amounts below a certain point.
What this means for the Arctic Ice is that a lot of snow on ice is a double edged sword. Depending on when it falls the snow can slow the amount of melt the ice takes during the melt season. The problem is that if you are getting a lot of snow that is telling you the temps are rising and therefore the survivability of that ice over the long term is very bad. Therefore I do not get excited about a lot of snow cover over the ice. I get more and more fearful.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2016, 01:47:53 PM by LRC1962 »
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #510 on: February 22, 2016, 11:58:07 AM »
Snow cover also not looking so great atm:
A few notes to make living in snow country. Area of snow can be misleading.
A) How thick is it? I suspect most is very think cover.
B) Where is the frost line? The deep the frost line the longer the snow will stick around and the slower it takes to melt.

I don't know the answer to these questions, but as Rob Dekker has often argued on the ASIB, there may be a correlation between spring snow cover and the sea ice minimum, and so the fact that NH snow cover it is already quite low compared to previous years, is somewhat troubling.

As a sidenote, I still don't know how reliable it is, but DMI volume has increased very slowly and is now in second place (it's 4th for PIOMAS at the end of January):

edit: of course, 2010 and 2011 aren't showing
« Last Edit: February 22, 2016, 12:39:30 PM by Neven »
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crandles

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #511 on: February 22, 2016, 02:14:11 PM »
Snow cover also not looking so great atm:
A few notes to make living in snow country. Area of snow can be misleading.
A) How thick is it? I suspect most is very think cover.
B) Where is the frost line? The deep the frost line the longer the snow will stick around and the slower it takes to melt.

I don't know the answer to these questions, but

There is



Every recent year has slightly above average snow thickness near Arctic. I don't think that is any surprise more heat more moisture in air more snow precipitation. So near Arctic is I think fairly normal. But it looks like there is a lot of red just a bit further away this year.

A-Team

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #512 on: February 22, 2016, 02:22:37 PM »
Quote
As for the cracking event: Diablobanquisa posts this AVHHR image from Environment Canada
The correct link for those is ftp://cisclient.cis.ec.gc.ca/HRPT-Resolute--Beaufort/  The images below show 21 Feb 16.

Here it is not a good idea to assume that the image was optimized to show ice fractures as that was never the mission. I see a fair number of people on these forums either not changing original contrast at all, or changing with via a global scalar multiplicative transfer function and apologizing even for that. 

On large scenes with variable cloud thicknesses and degrees of solar illumination, it is better to use adaptive (local) contrast adjustment, as provided conveniently in ImageJ's CLAHE tool. It is applied (deliberately heavily handedly) in the third frame of the animation to bring out all the fracture information present in the original. Which is quite a bit worse than it might appear at first.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2016, 02:28:31 PM by A-Team »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #513 on: February 22, 2016, 02:45:52 PM »
Snow cover also not looking so great atm:
A few notes to make living in snow country. Area of snow can be misleading.
A) How thick is it? I suspect most is very think cover.
B) Where is the frost line? The deep the frost line the longer the snow will stick around and the slower it takes to melt.

I don't know the answer to these questions, but

There is



Every recent year has slightly above average snow thickness near Arctic. I don't think that is any surprise more heat more moisture in air more snow precipitation. So near Arctic is I think fairly normal. But it looks like there is a lot of red just a bit further away this year.

Makes sense, for a year like this... the higher the NH average temperatures, the higher the latitude where snow melts earlier ... (

magnamentis

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #514 on: February 22, 2016, 03:18:32 PM »
Snow cover also not looking so great atm:
A few notes to make living in snow country. Area of snow can be misleading.
A) How thick is it? I suspect most is very thin cover.
B) Where is the frost line? The deeper the frost line the longer the snow will stick around and the slower it takes to melt. Example of a bad situation was one winter many years ago, the snow came before the ground froze. Accumulations that year in that area were 6'+. It had turned cold and the snow cover although was thick was all light snow. Spring came temps went in the 10C+ range with warm winds and it was all gone within a week. Why? the ground never froze all winter. This year has been a very warm winter.
C)When the warmth comes, how high do the temps get and how warm and strong are the winds?
Conditions now in snow country are such that you no longer get the accumulations you used to, except when you get the perfect setup such as last year in the New England states. You no longer get the cold the sets the freezing line low enough to protect what snow falls. And finally when the spring comes the snow goes very fast, and is coming earlier and earlier every year.
On the other hand the big snow fall line is going farther and farther north. That only means the winter air has more moisture in it and the temperatures are climbing. The important part there is that snow does not fall in great amounts below a certain point.
What this means for the Arctic Ice is that a lot of snow on ice is a double edged sword. Depending on when it falls the snow can slow the amount of melt the ice takes during the melt season. The problem is that if you are getting a lot of snow that is telling you the temps are rising and therefore the survivability of that ice over the long term is very bad. Therefore I do not get excited about a lot of snow cover over the ice. I get more and more fearful.

those are the correct question as well as assumptions :-)
coming from a contry where huge snow cover lays in the mountains and zero or close to zero in lower regions i can tell that studies have been made over decades (if not centuries) and:

- snow cover is thinner
- snow cover is smaller in area
- snow cover is wetter (warmer )
- the frost line is higher up in the muntains by about 2-300meters average

which not only means that there is less albedo once the sun starts it's work on the snow melt, which again produces warmer thermics (regional) but as well means that the snow is melting faster and compounds the effect just mentioned. in addition the cold winds from the mountains in the evenings are warmer as well and further compound the effect because the thermics in the morning bring again warmer winds up to the mountains.
as a result snow cover very high up in the alps is at times thinner to an amount counting in meters less.

the country i'm talking about is switzerland and one can't tell that they are not sufficiently pedantic to
have accurate measurements and statistics LOL

Michael J

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #515 on: February 22, 2016, 10:50:59 PM »
I don't know whether this should go into the stupid questions. While the trend in summer minimums is obvious, is it possible that the winter maximum will become more a result of weather rather than climate change.

While the volume is dropping a cold snap could result in a dramatic increase in area and the more open water before the cold snap, the more ice could form. I know that there was a thread about this in summer but I am surprised that nobody has spoken up about this here,

LRC1962

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #516 on: February 23, 2016, 04:44:48 AM »
In any given year, taken in isolation,  the maximums and minimums are totally determined by weather.
All weather taken as a whole globally and over time makes up climate. Although with variations over that time period it is generally seen that the weather as a global whole has been more or less the same over the last 10,000 years or so and has been named the Holocene Period.
Climate change is called that because the expected weather patterns and how they interrelate with the entire global start developing trends that lie outside the normal trends. Not only that but other things such as rising CO2 levels signal that the odds are greatly against returning to what was normal.
We are now in a transition period, new repeating weather cycles are not yet set, other influences such as CO2 levels, melt ice sheets, melting permafrost... are not yet stable to allow for that either to happen any time soon. Ergo climate change.
Going back to the beginning, the weather this year is determining what the maximum will be, but since we are in a state of climate change so is climate change responsible.
The new normal establishing the new climate will not arrive for a few centuries, by then of course minimums will almost always be zero and the maxs will be ???
The new climate will be ????? too many variables to count many of which will be man's interventions.
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epiphyte

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #517 on: February 23, 2016, 06:07:31 AM »
I don't know whether this should go into the stupid questions. While the trend in summer minimums is obvious, is it possible that the winter maximum will become more a result of weather rather than climate change.

While the volume is dropping a cold snap could result in a dramatic increase in area and the more open water before the cold snap, the more ice could form. I know that there was a thread about this in summer but I am surprised that nobody has spoken up about this here,

Thought experiment...
1. Take 1km^2 of open water and 1km^2 of 2m thick ice; expose them to freezing conditions for a week. Result: 100% increase in area and ~10-12% increase in volume.
2. take 1km^2 of 2m thick ice and 1km^2 of open water and expose it to melting conditions for a week. Result: zero decrease in area and (?) decrease in volume.

...so IMO you're right; area when freezing in winter is more volatile than when melting in summer, given only that there is significant open water and the average thickness is great enough not to melt out entirely when the weather is anomalously warm.

Of course, at some point, the latter won't be a given. When that day comes... Poof.

6roucho

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #518 on: February 23, 2016, 09:00:16 AM »
In any given year, taken in isolation,  the maximums and minimums are totally determined by weather.
All weather taken as a whole globally and over time makes up climate. Although with variations over that time period it is generally seen that the weather as a global whole has been more or less the same over the last 10,000 years or so and has been named the Holocene Period.
Climate change is called that because the expected weather patterns and how they interrelate with the entire global start developing trends that lie outside the normal trends. Not only that but other things such as rising CO2 levels signal that the odds are greatly against returning to what was normal.
We are now in a transition period, new repeating weather cycles are not yet set, other influences such as CO2 levels, melt ice sheets, melting permafrost... are not yet stable to allow for that either to happen any time soon. Ergo climate change.
Going back to the beginning, the weather this year is determining what the maximum will be, but since we are in a state of climate change so is climate change responsible.
The new normal establishing the new climate will not arrive for a few centuries, by then of course minimums will almost always be zero and the maxs will be ???
The new climate will be ????? too many variables to count many of which will be man's interventions.
Thanks LRC. That's going straight into my set of elevator explanations.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #519 on: February 23, 2016, 06:15:09 PM »
Quick projection of what our 2016 max will be (probability based on 2003-2015 IJIS growth baseline)

2003-2015 2/22 to Max Average Growth               295881
2/22 2016 Extent                                 13593241
2003-2015 Growth STDEV                             180820
+2                                               14250763
+1                                               14069943
Average                                          13889122
-1                                               13708302
-2                                               13527481  (namely, we've already hit max...)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #520 on: February 23, 2016, 07:51:57 PM »
In the linked article Robert Scribbler raises the question of whether a monster 2016 Arctic Sea Ice melt season has already begun.  Neven may need to open a new melt season thread and close this freezing season thread soon if current trends are sustained:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/22/a-monster-2016-arctic-melt-season-may-have-already-begun/

Extract: "A Hellish 2016 Arctic Melt Season May Have Already Begun
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #521 on: February 23, 2016, 09:03:46 PM »
In the linked article Robert Scribbler raises the question of whether a monster 2016 Arctic Sea Ice melt season has already begun.  Neven may need to open a new melt season thread and close this freezing season thread soon if current trends are sustained:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/22/a-monster-2016-arctic-melt-season-may-have-already-begun/

Extract: "A Hellish 2016 Arctic Melt Season May Have Already Begun
“Hell is empty… all the devils are here.” William Shakespeare — The Tempest."
I sincerely hope he's wrong.

Based on my average numbers, and us coming in at or below about 2015's max - a near 90% probability, I'll wager - an average melt year as defined by 2003-2015 numbers would put us at or slightly below 2007's minimum.

If we have  a bad melt year - a la 2012 - we could blow past 2012's numbers by almost a million KM2.

So many possibilities, most of them so very, very bad.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #522 on: February 23, 2016, 11:04:24 PM »
I received a tip from someone at ESA, and have now added near real-time images of Cryosat-2 and SMOS sea ice thickness to the ASIG:







Every time I think I can't make that website any better, new stuff pops up.  :)

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #523 on: February 24, 2016, 12:23:24 AM »
WOW! There is a whole lot of thick ice ready to exit stage right through the Fram.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #524 on: February 24, 2016, 12:26:52 AM »
Yeah and that band of thin ice extending along Beaufort?

Indeed a bit of  transport warmth and sun and the season melting can be major, ice pack condition seems pretty bad!

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #525 on: February 24, 2016, 01:38:59 AM »
If that Cryosat data is accurate then the thicker ice is positioned much closer to the Atlantic, similar to 2011 and 2012, and not like 13 and 14.

The volume time series data is a bit confusing.  It either ends early last year, or the 2015 label is right under the end of the year instead of the beginning where I'd expect it.  And it appears that the current volume in Barents in Kara sea is doing well compared to previous years, which seems a bit odd.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #526 on: February 24, 2016, 09:10:51 AM »
It seems that it is now (almost?) possible to circumnavigate Svalbard. It is a little early for that, isn't it?

Next target is when it will be possible to circumnavigate Greenland... Depressing.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #527 on: February 24, 2016, 09:18:11 AM »
If that Cryosat data is accurate then the thicker ice is positioned much closer to the Atlantic, similar to 2011 and 2012, and not like 13 and 14.

Michael, do you know where I can get older images (apple to apple). I have a bunch of images, but they vary a bit, different legends, etc.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #528 on: February 24, 2016, 09:30:53 AM »
It seems that it is now (almost?) possible to circumnavigate Svalbard. It is a little early for that, isn't it?

Nah, we're not impressed by that one anymore. Circumnavigating Svalbard AND Franz Josef Land, however, is a different cookie:  ;)
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #529 on: February 24, 2016, 09:51:26 AM »
Michael, do you know where I can get older images (apple to apple).

Unless I've misunderstood the question, on the CryoSat web site surely?

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html

Or are you looking for better resolution in time than the "final precise data" offers? Also have you looked at the IFREMER combined ASCAT maps yet?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#CERSAT

The latest is for Feb 11th:




P.S. Looks like the forum can't display FTP images
« Last Edit: February 24, 2016, 10:00:21 AM by Jim Hunt »
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plg

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #530 on: February 24, 2016, 09:52:34 AM »
We now have less than two weeks left to the average day of maximum (March 7 Cryo, March 8 for JAXA and NSIDC).

Since it seems very likely that the maximum will be early, there is only perhaps at most 10 days left of the freezing season (modulo unexpected weather). Given that the growth has stagnated for the past week or so, the freezing season may already be over as many others have pointed out.

  • JAXA: Local maximum on Feb 16 (13.67M), currently (23 Feb) 36.7 k below that.
  • NSIDC: Local maximum on Feb 9 (15.35M), currently (21 Feb) 69 k below that.
  • Cryospere: Local maximum on Feb 11 (12.68M), currently (22 Feb) 130 k below that.

The following  crude metric may give a hint:
Average growth per day till average day of maximum to avoid coming in lowest:
  • JAXA: To go 312k (2015), daily 21k.
  • NSIDC: To go 397k (2015), daily 23k.
  • Cryosphere:  To go 585k (2011), daily 39k.

It seems now very likely that this year will be lowest on all three records, even if the local maxima is exceeded.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #531 on: February 24, 2016, 10:05:40 AM »
Given that the growth has stagnated for the past week or so, the freezing season may already be over as many others have pointed out.

It seems now very likely that this year will be lowest on all three records, even if the local maxima is exceeded.

Not forgetting that it has been predicted far and wide that global sea ice area will post another new lowest ever (since satellite records began) record in the very near future:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/02/the-great-global-warming-policy-forum-con/#2016-02-23

Quote
Please feel free to “print” Snow White’s prediction that CT global sea ice area will post yet another new record of around 14.22 million square kilometers over the next 2 to 3 days.
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #532 on: February 24, 2016, 10:40:34 AM »
Michael, do you know where I can get older images (apple to apple).

Unless I've misunderstood the question, on the CryoSat web site surely?

Ideally I would like to compare today's 28-day thickness distribution map to those of 2015, 2014, etc. on the same date. Not just Spring and Autumn (which only runs up to 2014 on the CPOM site anyway).

I know there's an archive somewhere, but forgotten where. Either way, I've asked the ESA person as well.

Near real-time images are great, but it's all about comparison, comparison, comparison.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #533 on: February 24, 2016, 11:11:01 AM »
It seems that it is now (almost?) possible to circumnavigate Svalbard. It is a little early for that, isn't it?

Nah, we're not impressed by that one anymore. Circumnavigating Svalbard AND Franz Josef Land, however, is a different cookie:  ;)
It would appear the heat in the Barents has gotten the upper hand,,,
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #534 on: February 24, 2016, 08:48:25 PM »
Have to invent names for the other classes as well some time.  ;)

How about creating a "10K Club" some time.

I'll consider it once you have posted another 3000 comments.  ;)

Neven,

I appreciate the thoughtfulness of your new titles, but I must say that being an American I am not use to having a Royalty class.

Best,
ASLR
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #535 on: February 24, 2016, 08:52:38 PM »
We have them here ASLR. Would you like to swap?

What would a member of the US "Upper Class" look like? Donald Trump? Hillary Clinton?
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DavidR

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #536 on: February 24, 2016, 08:53:12 PM »
Have to invent names for the other classes as well some time.  ;)

How about creating a "10K Club" some time.

I'll consider it once you have posted another 3000 comments.  ;)

Neven,

I appreciate the thoughtfulness of your new titles, but I must say that being an American I am not use to having a Royalty class.

Best,
ASLR
After 7000  posts you  should definitely  be called a worker not royalty.  ;)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #537 on: February 24, 2016, 09:40:21 PM »
After 7000  posts you  should definitely  be called a worker not royalty.  ;)

Maybe Pope Francis could sort this out ;):

"So the last will be first, and the first last.” Matthew 20:16
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #538 on: February 24, 2016, 09:51:11 PM »
What would a member of the US "Upper Class" look like? Donald Trump? Hillary Clinton?

I think that Hillary and The Donald would fall into the "Ruling Class".  While per the Wiki-link the American Upper Class would be the top 1-percent (+/-) like Mark Zuckerberg  ;D

If you want to swap I will trade The Donald for Kate any day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_upper_class
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #539 on: February 24, 2016, 10:23:24 PM »
If that Cryosat data is accurate then the thicker ice is positioned much closer to the Atlantic, similar to 2011 and 2012, and not like 13 and 14.

Michael, do you know where I can get older images (apple to apple). I have a bunch of images, but they vary a bit, different legends, etc.

Sorry I don't.  I was making a comparison of current 28 day vs final Spring for previous years from the Cryosat web page.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #540 on: February 24, 2016, 10:43:42 PM »
We have them here ASLR. Would you like to swap?

What would a member of the US "Upper Class" look like? Donald Trump? Hillary Clinton?

OMG No!!!

Clinton comes from a purely middle class background.  And The Donald?  He is just nouveau rich.  And not really all that rich.

Let's see....hmmm.  We have Rockefellers still though the bloodline is kind of washed out now.  The Bush's are sort of on the cusp of being aristocracy - Jeb sort of messing that up at the  moment.  The Kennedy's but their bloodlines are getting a bit weak also. 

Probably best go with tradition and pick the really rich.  The Walton's, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, the Koch brothers...solid folks like that...where did I leave my guillotine?
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #541 on: February 24, 2016, 10:48:44 PM »
Why not put the class "Dominator"? I am fairly sure 99% here remember Buffalo Sabres outstanding goalie Dominik Hasek :) When you have posted about 5000 posts or 10000 you are a truly dominator here at the forum :)

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #542 on: February 24, 2016, 11:44:38 PM »
Back on topic...

EOSDIS Worldview - western Kara on 2/23.  It is pretty seriously thrashed.  Add:  No ice on the Barents side of Nova Zemlya at all.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #543 on: February 24, 2016, 11:49:31 PM »
I think I'll start to sometimes use the moniker 'ASIF Viscount ASRL' ;) , as the 882 ASIF citizens do not a duchy make. Anyway, the supreme overlord, head of the state, Generalissimus, the  General Secretary of the Party, and tribesking is still Neven.

I've got nothing sensible to say of the freezing season which looks rather insensible.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #544 on: February 25, 2016, 12:01:03 AM »
I've got nothing sensible to say of the freezing season which looks rather insensible.

Insensible indeed, pmt.

On the other side, here's Amundsen sound and the eastern Beaufort.

Not any better than the Kara.  The Amundsen already has a significant bite taken out of it.
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Neven

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #545 on: February 25, 2016, 12:17:23 AM »
Ah good, you noticed the change in member groups.  ;)

It was more difficult than I thought initially. I didn't want to go for military titles. I wanted to keep it as gender-neutral as possible. I thought about ice types (nilas, pancake ice, FYI, MYI, etc), but not clear enough. So, this is it for now, until I think of something better or get a good suggestion.
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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #546 on: February 25, 2016, 01:55:08 AM »
Got nothing to add but I wanted to see my new title.

I feel honored to be in the same social class as Neven.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #547 on: February 25, 2016, 02:25:03 AM »
according to IJIS, it looks like 1980 had more ice before December 31 than 2016 does at this time.

kind of jaw dropping.

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #548 on: February 25, 2016, 07:18:27 AM »
We have a new high today. Can anybody tell which area brought the jump?

jdallen

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Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« Reply #549 on: February 25, 2016, 07:52:07 AM »
We have a new high today. Can anybody tell which area brought the jump?
I'd bet on the Bering and the western edge of the CAB - where the gap above Svalbard is.

GFS shows strong surface wind pushing south across the Bering, and similarly from the central CAB towards Svalbard and the Fram gap.  Good news/Bad news with that last; the extent may have gone up, but the ice being shoved that way is doomed.

[edit] Baffin may be contributing as well; there's a similar strong flow from the west/north west out of the CAA which could be dispersing ice and driving down temperatures producing new ice.  Again, that would drive up extent but wouldn't really be doing anything substantive for the pack.
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