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Phil.

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1100 on: May 20, 2017, 01:04:04 PM »
This may well be totally OT, but it definitely qualifies as a stupid question.


There is a name for a river valley carved during the breakup of an ice sheet. The sudden ice/water outflow causes a deeper, wider, U-shaped trough to be carved and there is a name for this type of valley. I live adjacent to one of these features and at one time the name of the feature rolled off my tongue as easily as the name of the river. Today alas, it's gone & it aggravates me no end. It's like running into someone at a party whose face you remember, but you're unable to recall the name.

Happens to me all the time.  :(
From my recollection of geomorphology many years ago the terms used were 'fluvial V-shaped valley' and 'glacial U-shaped valley'.



Tor Bejnar

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1101 on: May 20, 2017, 02:57:19 PM »
Some related "English word" terms associated with what you describe (location was a help)
braided stream
outwash plain
proglacial stream
valley train

My second guess (after coulee) is "valley train".
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jai mitchell

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1102 on: May 20, 2017, 03:16:57 PM »
Aerosol Forcing

Aerosol forcing is a negative (cooling) effect that works to reflect solar radiation from the sun back out to space (global dimming).  It also cools the upper troposphere, lowering the effective height of the atmosphere (called the 'Tropopause') where it is present in abundance. 

Tropospheric aerosols, those pollutants like sulfur dioxide -- a product of burning coal and oil without clean air regulations -- like those conditions found in developing countries, typically last in the atmosphere only about 2 weeks.  The current IPCC range of forcing expected from human-caused aerosols is between -0.2 and -1.2 watts per square meter over the entire face of the earth.

If all human emissions of these cooling agents were suddenly removed we would experience a sudden warming of the planet.  This warming would raise the height of the Tropopause.  It would also lead to warmer temperatures that allow for slight increases in water vapor in our atmosphere.  Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas in its own right.  The warming that is expected directly from CO2 in the atmosphere is slightly less than 1/2 of the total warming that it produces because of the feedbacks of both increased water vapor in the atmosphere and the increased height of the Tropopause (called the 'Lapse Rate' feedback).

stupid question:
Does the IPCC estimate of forcing that is currently applied to the Earth from these aerosols also include the forcing reduction that would otherwise occur due to the water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in their absence?
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Jim Pettit

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1103 on: May 20, 2017, 03:48:49 PM »
So then, glaciofluvial (or fluvioaglacial) valley? Or just "outwash plain"?

Sigmetnow

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1104 on: May 20, 2017, 04:09:47 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

georged

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1105 on: May 21, 2017, 07:30:46 AM »
Welcome, wanderer. I'm an expert in (asking) stupid questions.

I don't know about an official definition, but for me the melting season starts as soon as total sea ice area/extent has reached a maximum, in other words when the trend lines on these graphs peak. During the first subsequent weeks area and extent decrease is slow, but in May the melting season starts in earnest, switching to high gears in June, July and the first half of August.

Mind you, it's good to remember that a large part of the ice pack continues to thicken for several weeks after the area/extent maximum was reached. That's because ice may melt at the edges because of the arrival of the Sun, but the further you go towards the North Pole the longer it takes for the Sun to start shining there every day to cause more melting than the ice can thicken.

Is there a Barrow Strait thread? I'd like to discuss heat and ice transport, and Barrow Strait more generally.

Neven

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1106 on: May 21, 2017, 08:56:08 AM »
Is there a Barrow Strait thread? I'd like to discuss heat and ice transport, and Barrow Strait more generally.

You could open a new thread, but as Barrow Strait is part of the Northwest Passage, I suggest you take it up in the dedicated thread.
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1107 on: May 21, 2017, 10:27:49 AM »

stupid question:
Does the IPCC estimate of forcing that is currently applied to the Earth from these aerosols also include the forcing reduction that would otherwise occur due to the water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in their absence?

Their feedbacks do not generally(*) reduce (or increase) the forcing. It is the radiative imbalance that is reduced, that will go to zero in the long time.

Why would you think that the IPCC might be "forgetting" some feedback in certain scenarios?

(*) The exception may be if the true forcing is changing, e.g.

aerosol change -> temp. change -> aerosol change.

CalamityCountdown

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1108 on: May 21, 2017, 05:29:09 PM »
On The 2017 melting season thread, there were a series of posts on "extent" as the predominant measurement utilized to summarize the state of the sea ice. As was pointed out in a number of posts, "extent" by itself does not provide a very good indication of the state of arctic SIE at this time of the year. Neven pretty much put an end to the conversation with a post summarizing a number of the metrics available to use in considering the state of the sea ice, with extent being just one of them. But IMHO, the "annual minimum" SIE is a single metric that does a reasonably good job of summarizing the state of the sea ice. But that raise the question, is "annual maximum" a measurement receiving far more emphasis than is appropriate? A Google search for "arctic sea ice minimum" and "arctic sea ice maximum" shows 1,290,000 and 1,340,000 results, respectively. Does "annual sea ice maximum" provide a decent indication of the state of the ice, or is just a metric that is easy to display, easy to understand, and easy to access through the NSIDC website, and thus gets more attention than is appropriate?

Neven

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1109 on: May 21, 2017, 05:44:09 PM »
Maybe maximum receives more hits because the record was beaten a couple of times in the past three years?
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jai mitchell

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1110 on: May 21, 2017, 05:49:08 PM »

Why would you think that the IPCC might be "forgetting" some feedback in certain scenarios?


because 1/2 of the CMIP5 models do not include indirect effects from aerosols in their physical models and peer reviewed journal papers note that the impact of upper tropospheric cooling (and impacts to lapse rate) are not well understood and not included in their estimates.

The forcing applied to GHGs in the IPCC includes the effects of increased water vapor and Lapse Rate feedbacks and account for about 3/5 of this total forcing.
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jai mitchell

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1111 on: May 21, 2017, 05:51:01 PM »
FYI I have received confirmation that these impacts are included in the models but that their uncertainty is high (as to how well they do it)
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Wipneus

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1112 on: May 22, 2017, 08:11:40 AM »

Why would you think that the IPCC might be "forgetting" some feedback in certain scenarios?


because 1/2 of the CMIP5 models do not include indirect effects from aerosols in their physical models and peer reviewed journal papers note that the impact of upper tropospheric cooling (and impacts to lapse rate) are not well understood and not included in their estimates.

The forcing applied to GHGs in the IPCC includes the effects of increased water vapor and Lapse Rate feedbacks and account for about 3/5 of this total forcing.

Confusing. You can find the definitions of radiative forcing (RF) and the new effective radiative foricng (ERF) from GHG's and aerosols in WGI, section 8.1 of the latest IPCC report. Box 8.1 is a useful summary.

The most common RF excludes any tropospheric changes, so  increased water vapor and Lapse Rate feedbacks are excluded by definition.
ERF allows a partial adjustment of temperatures and water vapor pressure but not of the sea surface temperature. Those adjustments are there because some of the aerosol effects are absorbing (black carbon) and indeed because of indirect effects. They are considered part of the forcing, not feedbacks. They do not include most changes in tropospheric temperatures, and the resulting water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks.





binntho

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1113 on: May 26, 2017, 06:51:02 AM »
I'm a bit confused by many members swapping "strait" (meaning narrow) with "straight" (meaning, well, straight ...)

Is this an americanism? Althoug pronounced almost the same, the meaning and etymology of the two words are quite different. Thus the Nares Strait, the Fram Strait, etc.

Confusing the two is not new, the "straight and narrow road" derives from Matthew: "And the gate is strait and the road narrow", a typical doubling of terms from Hebreic poetry traditions. But being in "dire straights" would not make any sense, and one could wonder about the demeanour and sexual preferences of the members of a band called "The Dire Straights" ...
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Neven

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1114 on: May 26, 2017, 09:30:22 AM »
But being in "dire straights" would not make any sense, and one could wonder about the demeanour and sexual preferences of the members of a band called "The Dire Straights" ...

Especially if you know that they also like to call themselves the Sultans of Swing, Brothers in Arms who like to go down Telegraph Road towards the Tunnel of Love. ;-)

But to answer your question: It's not an americanism, but a simple spelling mistake. You also often see it with extent/extend and effect/affect.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1115 on: May 26, 2017, 01:04:34 PM »
But being in "dire straights" would not make any sense, and one could wonder about the demeanour and sexual preferences of the members of a band called "The Dire Straights" ...

Especially if you know that they also like to call themselves the Sultans of Swing, Brothers in Arms who like to go down Telegraph Road towards the Tunnel of Love. ;-)

But to answer your question: It's not an americanism, but a simple spelling mistake. You also often see it with extent/extend and effect/affect.

...or with my (least) favorite weather-related error, "lightening". Runner-up: "trof". Egad...

(I sometimes wish Dire Straits still used one of the band's predecessor names, "Brewers Droop". Best name ever.)
« Last Edit: May 26, 2017, 01:50:52 PM by Jim Pettit »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1116 on: May 26, 2017, 03:39:37 PM »
I suspect I've made the "lightening" error.  But the other day the lightning was lightening.  (Florida is 'Lightning King' in the USA, but more intense in the mid-section of the peninsula.)
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jai mitchell

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1117 on: May 26, 2017, 05:51:16 PM »

Why would you think that the IPCC might be "forgetting" some feedback in certain scenarios?


because 1/2 of the CMIP5 models do not include indirect effects from aerosols in their physical models and peer reviewed journal papers note that the impact of upper tropospheric cooling (and impacts to lapse rate) are not well understood and not included in their estimates.

The forcing applied to GHGs in the IPCC includes the effects of increased water vapor and Lapse Rate feedbacks and account for about 3/5 of this total forcing.

Confusing. You can find the definitions of radiative forcing (RF) and the new effective radiative foricng (ERF) from GHG's and aerosols in WGI, section 8.1 of the latest IPCC report. Box 8.1 is a useful summary.

The most common RF excludes any tropospheric changes, so  increased water vapor and Lapse Rate feedbacks are excluded by definition.
ERF allows a partial adjustment of temperatures and water vapor pressure but not of the sea surface temperature. Those adjustments are there because some of the aerosol effects are absorbing (black carbon) and indeed because of indirect effects. They are considered part of the forcing, not feedbacks. They do not include most changes in tropospheric temperatures, and the resulting water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks.

indeed, there has also been an adjustment of terms in AR5, away from the TAR and AR4.

If you want to read up on it (and thank you for your response and reference!) please see:

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/drafts/WG1AR5_FOD_Ch08_All_Final.pdf
Section 8.1.1 page 119  line 41 on (quoted below)

Quote
In this chapter, we emphasize a forcing definition that accounts for the complicating effects of rapid responses on the radiation balance to allow quantification of additional forcing agents. This forcing is the adjusted forcing (AF), which is defined as the change in net irradiance at the TOA after allowing for atmospheric and land temperatures, water vapour, clouds and land albedo to adjust, but with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice cover unchanged. This definition is chosen as one that (1) provides a good indication of the eventual climate response, (2) that allows evaluation of processes such as some aerosol indirect effects or so-called ‘semi-direct’ effects that influence climate but do not have an instantaneous forcing, and (3) that is readily calculated in model simulations with a comparatively small uncertainty range. Since the atmospheric temperature has been allowed to adjust, the AF would be identical if calculated at the tropopause instead of the TOA. Ideally, all known rapid responses would be included, but in practice calculations have to date largely been performed with models that have fixed composition and ecosystems (and hence neglect rapid responses of aerosols or ozone when calculating the response to CO2 forcing, and neglect changes in vegetation cover when calculating aerosol indirect forcing, for example). The conceptual relation between instantaneous RF and AF is illustrated in Figure 8.1 and it implies the adjustments to the instantaneous RF involve effects of processes that occur more rapidly than the time scale of the response of the global mean surface temperature to the forcing. The AF thus represents that part of the instantaneous RF that more directly contributes to the steady-state climate response.

Note: this is the draft, in the actual report the term "Adjusted Forcing" (AF) is changed to "Effective Radiative Forcing" (ERF)  (Box 8.1 that you cited) and these forcings do include the changes in troposphere and land (but not sea ice or ocean surface temperatures)

actual report box 8.1

Further review of Table 8.6 on page 696 and Figure 8.15 on page 697 shows that the reported radiative forcing is actually ERF -- as shown by the reported range of total anthropogenic radiative forcing in the table and shown graphically in the figure (see below)

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Jim Pettit

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1118 on: May 26, 2017, 11:56:33 PM »
I suspect I've made the "lightening" error.  But the other day the lightning was lightening.  (Florida is 'Lightning King' in the USA, but more intense in the mid-section of the peninsula.)

FWIW, that "Lightning Capital of the USA" title was officially moved last year from the Tampa area to Orangetree, a neighborhood near the southwest coast about 20 miles east of Naples (where I live). ("The Lightning Capital of the World" title was also moved last year, from the DCR to Venezuela.)

TerryM

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1119 on: May 27, 2017, 12:53:53 AM »
Enlightening  ;)

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1120 on: May 28, 2017, 01:33:08 PM »
Probably a very stupid question but does ice formation require existing ice on which to build?  I can't see how ice would form in a flowing sea unless subject to flash freezing.  Can ice form off snow and rocks at the shore edge?  If not how would the Arctic recover if all the ice melted?

crandles

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1121 on: May 28, 2017, 01:50:36 PM »
Probably a very stupid question but does ice formation require existing ice on which to build?  I can't see how ice would form in a flowing sea unless subject to flash freezing.  Can ice form off snow and rocks at the shore edge?  If not how would the Arctic recover if all the ice melted?

It is harder for wavy ocean to start to freeze as this stirs up heat from lower depths (saliter water keeps it down rather than heat rising). However the process is frazil crystals form when more heat is being lost than gained and temperature gets down to the freezing point. A few are easily submerged and tossed around. You slowly get more of these frazil crystals about and the more there are, the more this tends to damp out waves which reduces the heat flow from lower depths. This helps the frazil crystals float to the surface, accumulate and bond together to form other kinds of ice. eg see
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/formation.html

If the answer to first question was no and heat was being lost, how would temperature either stay at freezing point or go below freezing point unless some freezing occurred?

HTH

Tetra

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1122 on: May 28, 2017, 02:45:37 PM »
At this rate could we be ice free by early august?

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1123 on: May 28, 2017, 03:02:00 PM »
Probably a very stupid question but does ice formation require existing ice on which to build?  I can't see how ice would form in a flowing sea unless subject to flash freezing.  Can ice form off snow and rocks at the shore edge?  If not how would the Arctic recover if all the ice melted?

The simple answer would be "Snow" - it would melt (absorbing the latent heat of fusion) until the surface of the sea had run out of heat to melt more, then the remaining snow would float near the surface   .   .   
The alternative is when air temperatures reach about -100C  the surface can cool enough to start ice formation.

Neven

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1124 on: May 28, 2017, 04:08:00 PM »
At this rate could we be ice free by early august?

Not at this rate, no.
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Tetra

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1125 on: May 28, 2017, 04:26:51 PM »
At this rate could we be ice free by early august?

Not at this rate, no.

But the ice is very thin, and if there are enough heatwaves/high pressure weather and winds, could the rate increase enough to pull it off?

Am still hoping for cloudy weather.

Neven

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1126 on: May 28, 2017, 10:22:56 PM »

But the ice is very thin, and if there are enough heatwaves/high pressure weather and winds, could the rate increase enough to pull it off?

Not by early August. And it would take exceptional weather conditions for it to happen in September. But you never know.
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binntho

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1127 on: May 29, 2017, 09:02:18 AM »
Totally OT but I've just seen a denialist acquaintance of mine touting a supposedly "peer reviewed" article claiming to totally refute IPCC.

Searching in Google has only found lots of excitement in the denialsphere, but no refutations or serious discussion. The paper in question is: Role of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Climate Change by Martin Hertzberg and Hans Schreuder. The paper itself is pay-per-view, apparently published by Sage Journals (?)

It seems that these two gentlemen have been making the denialists quite happy for some time, but what I'm really asking is if anybody here knows of any serious refutations to this paper?
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1128 on: May 29, 2017, 11:39:01 AM »
The paper itself is pay-per-view, apparently published by Sage Journals (?)
When denialists say peer reviewed, they mean Lord M recommended it.

I  recommend you save your money and let the deniers waste theirs!
There is a vast  body of work confirming AGW and few scientists are going to bother refuting a paper which will have little scientific merit.
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S.Pansa

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1129 on: May 29, 2017, 12:59:46 PM »
Totally OT but I've just seen a denialist acquaintance of mine touting a supposedly "peer reviewed" article claiming to totally refute IPCC.

The paper itself is pay-per-view, apparently published by Sage Journals (?)

It seems that these two gentlemen have been making the denialists quite happy for some time, but what I'm really asking is if anybody here knows of any serious refutations to this paper?

The paper is perhaps pay-per view - but not peer-reviewed it seems  8)
At least the SkepticalScience peer-review-paper-counterof 'sceptics' can't find a single such paper for PhD Martin Hertzberg.
George Monbiot cites the Dr. himself in an 2007 article:
Quote
Hertzberg informs me that he has tried to get his “papers” published in scientific journals, but he has failed: his nonsense has been weeded out. It is our misfortune that Alexander Cockburn does not understand this.

Which is not all that suprising as Hertzberg just seems to be another Meterologist who is denying the Greenhous effect and even the fact that humans are causing the current growth in atmosph. CO2 (with this claim Hertzberg gets a mention in the RC weekly news in 2007).

I have not found any rebuttal of the 'paper' you cite above, but RCWiki lead me to this rebuttal on  Science of Doom, where they take apart a Hertzberg paper titled "A Greenhouse Effect on the Moon" (2010). Funny stuff ... or sad

All in all, DavidRs recommendation seems spot on.

PS: For furter rebuttals I'd guess you can pick of this list all that have "the sun" & "CO2" in its titles.

binntho

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1130 on: May 30, 2017, 07:35:40 AM »
Thanks for the replies! I am well aware of the various sciences underlying the theory of man-made global warming and have absolutely no reason to doubt them.

But every now and then various denialists of my acquaintance point towards books or articles that supposedly "expose the whole myth" - I wasted some money a few months ago buying a book by a Danish paleoclimatologist who claimed to disprove that CO2 was causing global warming. The first chapter was total rubbish, with mislabelled graphs downloaded from the Internet. The rest of the book was actually quite thought provoking, sending me off on various tangents of study trying to explain how the various "snowball earth" episodes apparently happened in conditions with much higher CO2 concentrations than today.

Refuting what people actually write seems to me to make more headway with denialists than attacks on the authors which are instantly dismissed as irrelevant. Many (not all) denialists are actually open to factual discussions, and have the necessary scientific background to understand the issues.
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vigilius

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1131 on: May 30, 2017, 02:01:58 PM »
Quote
Many (not all) denialists are actually open to factual discussions, and have the necessary scientific background to understand the issues.

The two best resources for material in dealing with these folks IMHO are:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/
and
https://www.youtube.com/user/greenman3610

Best place to start if you are new to this would be to go through the old greenman videos chronologically, it gives a good historical rundown of where the denier arguments have been.

OTOH most of the people I run into on this are Fox/Limbaugh followers with no interest in any good faith discussion.

Best of luck!

CalamityCountdown

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1132 on: June 04, 2017, 06:52:16 PM »
In looking at a number of years via Chartic that had low minimum extent (2007, 2012, 2015, 2016), I am struck by how bunched up the trend lines are during late July/early August. What happened in 2012 to drive the eventual minimum so much lower than any other year in recorded history. Was it 1) pre-conditioning; or 2) August conditions, or 3) a combination of both? And will 2017 Arctic SIE trend line also join the tight bunch during late July, regardless of what happen over the next couple of weeks?

arctic-watcher

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1133 on: June 04, 2017, 08:11:00 PM »
On the forecast models page of Tropical Tidbits there is a Canadian Meteorological Centre model that seems different from GFS and ECMWF but no one ever references here on ASIF.  Is it a poor model or what?  thanks

Neven

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1134 on: June 04, 2017, 08:33:15 PM »
In looking at a number of years via Chartic that had low minimum extent (2007, 2012, 2015, 2016), I am struck by how bunched up the trend lines are during late July/early August. What happened in 2012 to drive the eventual minimum so much lower than any other year in recorded history. Was it 1) pre-conditioning; or 2) August conditions, or 3) a combination of both? And will 2017 Arctic SIE trend line also join the tight bunch during late July, regardless of what happen over the next couple of weeks?

I would say it's 3). 2012 was similar to 2010 with regard to preconditioning, I believe, and we haven't seen it for a couple of years now (this year may be different). And the GAC-2012 also had a big impact, of course.

As for your second question: Probably, but I personally wouldn't bet on it. If this current weather continues for a week or two more, and is then followed by some (semi-)powerful cyclones as we saw last year, 2017 might just nosedive like 2016 did at the start of the melting season.
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1135 on: June 04, 2017, 08:44:35 PM »
On the forecast models page of Tropical Tidbits there is a Canadian Meteorological Centre model that seems different from GFS and ECMWF but no one ever references here on ASIF.  Is it a poor model or what?  thanks

A trained meteorologist here can explain the dynamics of this much better, but the Euro (ecmwf) typically has the strongest verification results over measured periods (but like any model simulation, can have errors, sometimes significant, in the short term or for a isolated regional event).  The chart below shows verification to simulated data for 5 day lead times at 500 mb heights.

https://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1136 on: June 07, 2017, 02:44:57 PM »
 is there no planned poll for minimum area ? I want to vote <1million sq km ..
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1137 on: June 09, 2017, 10:44:37 PM »
So I noticed a bunch of areas, like the Hudson, Greenland North Coast, etc, that have cycles where the wind blows the ice away from the coast, creating open water, and then later back towards the coast.

My question... does this have any particular impact on the ice? Does the water it's being blown into warm in a few days in the sun? Does the ice coming back push that water out of the way? Or does a few days of sun not really matter?

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1138 on: June 10, 2017, 12:39:50 AM »
In two weeks, Hudson Bay should be mostly ice free from how fast and early it's melting.  There will still be some left, but that will be gone shorty thereafter. 
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1139 on: June 10, 2017, 09:35:42 AM »
The wildfire situation has been pretty mind blowing, so i am wondering what would be a good tool or website to keep track of places such as Siberia or North America.
I see Nullschool has an option for displaying sulfur dioxide levels.
Would it be correct to assume a relationship between depicted SO2 and the fires?

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1140 on: June 10, 2017, 12:27:07 PM »
So I noticed a bunch of areas, like the Hudson, Greenland North Coast, etc, that have cycles where the wind blows the ice away from the coast, creating open water, and then later back towards the coast.

My question... does this have any particular impact on the ice? Does the water it's being blown into warm in a few days in the sun? Does the ice coming back push that water out of the way? Or does a few days of sun not really matter?
I don't think it is easy to answer this question. It has an effect, but my feeling is that for it to be relevant and substantial the opening has to be huge and receive insolation for weeks. Then it happens like Beaufort sea in 2015 or 2016. No matter the MYI it kept importing, the ice would melt before the end of the melting season (well, by the end of the melting season in 2015).
I am sure the effect has to be substantial in the Hudson sea (well, now that it is toasted it does not matter anymore).
For these other smaller openings, probably there is a small effect.
In Greenland North Coast there is an underlying current that is cold. If the current is vigorous enough, the warming on the water may be small or have been transported away, to really have an effect on the ice once it comes back.

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1141 on: June 13, 2017, 06:02:50 PM »
Another question...

What determines the initial conditions for models like the GFS in the arctic?  Is it driven by the buoys? Satellite measurements? I'm wondering if the input data could be wrong because there are so few reliable stations in the arctic.

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1142 on: June 18, 2017, 05:14:54 AM »
Why is it that seemingly every producer of graphs showing annual curves chooses a different color scheme from others?  One chart has 2017 in black, another in red; one chart's 2012 is yellow, another is red.
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1143 on: June 18, 2017, 05:28:06 AM »
Why is it that seemingly every producer of graphs showing annual curves chooses a different color scheme from others?  One chart has 2017 in black, another in red; one chart's 2012 is yellow, another is red.

That's alternative science for you ;-)

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1144 on: June 18, 2017, 10:42:33 AM »
Another question...

What determines the initial conditions for models like the GFS in the arctic?  Is it driven by the buoys? Satellite measurements? I'm wondering if the input data could be wrong because there are so few reliable stations in the arctic.

Initial conditions are largely based on radiosondes launched on weather balloons.  They are launched over North America and the Caribbean, twice a day at 0z and 12z. Not sure if this is the method used in other parts of the world.

 Satellite data and airplane observations also get fed in.  Occasionally, specialized planes fly to specific areas and drop radiosondes, the hurricane hunters.  NOAA will occasionally send them on winter reconnaissance missions for high impact events.  But generally they are used to investigate typical cyclones.

 The initial conditions are extremely important, and I think you are right to say that poor data collection over arctic madness forecasting there a challenge.

There's a saying in regards to initial conditions in numerical weather models, garbage in, garbage out.
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1145 on: June 18, 2017, 01:55:02 PM »
Why is it that seemingly every producer of graphs showing annual curves chooses a different color scheme from others?  One chart has 2017 in black, another in red; one chart's 2012 is yellow, another is red.

The International Organization Of Climate-Related Chart And Graph Creators recently met for their annual conference, but despite several long, sometimes-heated sessions, they were unable to come to an agreement on implementing standards for annual curve color schemes. The IOCRCGC is considering an emergency meeting sometime later this summer to work through this divisive issue, as they're aware letting is sit unresolved until next spring's scheduled meeting may not be in anyone's best interest.

;)

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1146 on: June 19, 2017, 10:24:37 AM »
I watch the 10 hPa altitude for some time now. There are pretty high equatorial winds occuring there, compaired it with available 2015/2016. There was silence at equator. The windband over Northern hemisphere seems to be moved south and got more intensive.

I was already digging what is known about stratosphere (very low knowledge seems to be available about the connecting forces between weathermaking troposhere and stratosphere). Any ideas here, or links to learn something about it?
« Last Edit: June 19, 2017, 10:34:23 AM by nicibiene »
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1147 on: June 19, 2017, 10:43:26 AM »
Isn't this the so-called Quasi Biennial Oscillation?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1148 on: June 19, 2017, 11:59:39 AM »
Thank you seaicesailor! Seems to be the right path. 😁 Easterly phase is told to have stronger winds, but I wonder a little 2016 they waited for QBO to change direction, now it obviously happened but if I look at the chart of maximum speed for easterly phase, 35 m/s (126 kmh) windspeed is max, but there seems to be even higher speed.

Climate models do calculate a weakining QBO inwarming climate due to growing tropical convection. Found a nice explaination and great pics here. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/about/press_release/20130523/

But as middle altitudes get as warm as the tropics, would there really be a weaker QBO? Nice brainfood to think about. 😁 
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Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« Reply #1149 on: June 21, 2017, 06:47:33 AM »
Is this mud?  Is it from a stream or melting permafrost or what?
Second image zoomed out for reference
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