Per the following extract from the January 5 2016, BoM ENSO Overview, the second half of 2016 has something less than a 50% of having a neutral ENSO, with little chance of continuing El Nino conditions, (Note the first plot shows the current BoM POAMA Nino 3.4 forecast starting Jan 3 2016, indicates neutral conditions until at least September 2016):
BoM ENSO Overview Extract: "Recent bursts of westerly winds over the equatorial western Pacific may temporarily slow the decline of El Niño.
Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, while 40% have been followed by La Niña. Models also suggest neutral and La Niña are equally likely for the second half of 2016, with a repeat El Niño the least likely outcome."
I have previously stated that I believe that our current El Nino event is much more like the 82-83 Super El Nino Event (which had neutral conditions in the second half of 1983) than the 97-98 event that was followed by a La Nina. Indeed, the attached second image of the MEI plot shows a somewhat low Standardized MEI Departure for the Oct/Nov 2015 value due to relatively low atmospheric contributions in that timeframe. However, the 3-Standardized MEI Departures for the 82-83 event did not occur until the Jan/Feb 1983 timeframe, and I believe that the current (2016) high WWB & MJO activity will raise the MEI values for January 2016 from what they have been. Thus, the chances that the second half of 2016 having neutral ENSO conditions, may very well be more than 50%.
To support the ideas that the Jan 2016 atmospheric conditions will contribute to high MEI values, I offer:
A) The BoM currently indicates high cloud cover near the Equatorial Dateline.
B) The third & fourth images of the Nullschool forecast for January 10, 2016 for Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW Map, and for Earth 250-hPa Wind & TPW Map, respectively. In my opinion these show that the MJO is located close to where it was forecast to be on Jan 9, 2016 and is not moving rapidly eastward.